Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Li Ning with a target price of HKD 19.2 for 2025, based on a 20x PE ratio [1][4][7]. Core Insights - Li Ning's overall platform revenue (excluding Li Ning YOUNG) recorded low single-digit growth in Q2 2025, with offline channels experiencing low single-digit decline while e-commerce channels saw mid-single-digit growth [2][4]. - The growth in revenue is primarily driven by the running and fitness categories, both achieving high single-digit growth, while the basketball category faced a decline of over 20% due to market conditions [2][3]. - The company continues to optimize its channel structure, with a net decrease of 18 stores year-to-date, and plans to expand new store layouts as per strategy [3][4]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for Li Ning are as follows: 2025E at RMB 28,698 million, 2026E at RMB 30,498 million, and 2027E at RMB 31,943 million, reflecting growth rates of 0.1%, 6.3%, and 4.7% respectively [5][12]. - The forecasted EPS for 2025 is RMB 0.88, with a decline in net profit expected to RMB 2,269 million, a decrease of 24.7% compared to the previous year [5][12]. - The gross margin is projected to remain stable around 49.2% for 2025, with a slight increase to 49.5% by 2027 [5][13].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price not specified [4]. Core Insights - The company is experiencing a steady recovery with improved sales performance, particularly in e-commerce, and is gradually emerging from a low operational period [3]. - The company focuses on enhancing operational efficiency by closing underperforming stores, resulting in a net decrease of 29 sales points in China [1]. - The company is pursuing a strategy of deepening core categories while expanding into new categories, with significant growth in running, basketball, and training segments [2]. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are projected at 29.5 billion RMB, 31.7 billion RMB, and 34.0 billion RMB respectively [3]. - Net profit estimates for the same period are 2.8 billion RMB, 3.0 billion RMB, and 3.2 billion RMB respectively [3]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 1.09 RMB, 1.16 RMB, and 1.23 RMB for 2025-2027 [3]. Market Position - The company has a total market capitalization of approximately 39.29 billion HKD and a total share capital of 2,584.80 million shares [4]. - The asset-liability ratio stands at 26.90%, indicating a relatively low level of debt [4]. Sales Performance - The company reported a low single-digit growth in overall retail sales, with a 10%-20% increase in e-commerce sales [1]. - The running category saw a retail sales increase of 25% in 2024, leading the growth among core categories [2].