Core Viewpoint - Westpac Bank predicts that oil prices are likely to plummet to $60 per barrel following OPEC+'s agreement to increase production, while the "Liberation Day" is expected to drive iron ore trading prices below $100 per ton [1] Oil Industry - OPEC+ has agreed to raise production levels, which is anticipated to lead to a significant decrease in oil prices [1] - The forecasted price drop to $60 per barrel indicates a bearish outlook for the oil market [1] Iron Ore Market - The term "Liberation Day" is associated with a decline in iron ore prices, with expectations that trading prices will fall below $100 per ton [1] - This suggests a potential oversupply or reduced demand in the iron ore market, impacting pricing dynamics [1]

Core Viewpoint - Citigroup indicates that the US-Iran agreement and the easing of sanctions could lead to Brent crude oil prices dropping to $50 per barrel [1] Group 1 - The potential agreement between the US and Iran may significantly impact global oil prices [1] - Easing sanctions on Iran could increase oil supply in the market, contributing to price declines [1] - A price drop to $50 per barrel would represent a substantial decrease from current levels, affecting oil producers and related industries [1]

Core Viewpoint - The agreement between the US and Iran, along with the potential easing of sanctions, may lead to a decline in Brent crude oil prices, approaching the $50 per barrel level [1] Group 1 - The potential agreement could significantly impact global oil prices [1] - Analysts suggest that the easing of sanctions would increase oil supply in the market [1] - A price drop to near $50 per barrel could affect oil-dependent economies and companies [1]

Group 1 - WTI and Brent crude oil prices have seen a decline of up to 5% due to OPEC+ members agreeing to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in June [1] - The recent tariff measures implemented by Trump have heightened expectations of an economic recession in the U.S., leading to a significant drop in investor demand for oil [1] - OPEC+ has announced a second consecutive month of increased supply, following an unexpected large production increase in May, aimed at penalizing member countries that exceed their production quotas [1] Group 2 - The International Energy Agency (IEA) has revised down its global oil demand growth forecast, reducing the expected increase for 2025 by 300,000 barrels per day to 730,000 barrels per day due to escalating trade tensions impacting economic outlook [2] - UBS has also lowered its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2023 by 400,000 barrels per day to 800,000 barrels per day, predicting an exacerbation of the global oil supply surplus [2] - OPEC's monthly report has adjusted its 2025 global oil demand growth forecast from 1.45 million barrels to 1.3 million barrels, with the revised daily average demand expected to be approximately 105.1 million barrels [2][3] Group 3 - The IEA's report indicates that the growth forecast for global oil demand in 2026 has been reduced from 1.43 million barrels to 1.28 million barrels, with strong demand from non-OECD countries in aviation and road transport being key supporting factors [3]

Group 1 - The article discusses the significant growth in the renewable energy sector, highlighting a 25% increase in global investments in 2022, reaching $500 billion [1] - It emphasizes the role of government policies and incentives in driving this growth, with over 60 countries implementing supportive measures [1] - The report indicates that solar and wind energy accounted for 80% of the total renewable energy investments, showcasing their dominance in the market [1] Group 2 - The article notes that the demand for electric vehicles (EVs) surged, with sales increasing by 50% year-on-year, totaling 10 million units in 2022 [1] - It points out the challenges faced by the industry, including supply chain disruptions and rising material costs, which have impacted production timelines [1] - The analysis predicts that the EV market will continue to expand, with projections estimating a market size of $1 trillion by 2025 [1]

Group 1 - Brent crude oil futures have declined, breaking below $70 per barrel, with the latest price at $63.387 per barrel, representing a daily drop of 2.17% [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ☆☆☆ [1] - Methanol: ☆☆☆ [1] - Styrene: ★☆☆ [1] - Polypropylene: ★☆★ [1] - Plastic: ★☆★ [1] - PVC: ☆☆☆ [1] - Caustic Soda: ★☆☆ [1] - PTA: ★☆★ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★☆★ [1] - Short Fiber: ★☆★ [1] - Glass: ☆☆☆ [1] - Unified Domain: ★☆★ [1] - Bottle Chip: ★☆★ [1] Core Views - The direct impact of Trump's tariff increase on methanol is limited but may be indirectly transmitted through the olefin end. Methanol prices dropped significantly after the holiday due to the decline in crude oil prices. The supply-demand side is expected to turn loose [2]. - The urea futures market dropped significantly due to macro - sentiment. The supply pressure at a high level continues, and the short - term market is expected to fluctuate and correct [3]. - The polyolefin market dropped significantly due to the sharp decline in oil prices and macro - risks. The supply of polyethylene increased, and its fundamentals are weak. The supply - side pressure of polypropylene is limited, and its fundamentals are in a weak balance [4]. - The styrene futures market dropped significantly. The supply - demand side has a weak leading role, and the price is under pressure from the cost side [6]. - The polyester market is affected by the US tariff. The cost and demand are both weak. The supply - demand pattern of ethylene glycol in the domestic market is expected to improve, and the short - fiber market has double negative factors of cost and demand [7]. - The PVC and caustic soda markets are affected by macro - sentiment. The impact of tariffs is limited. The supply pressure of PVC is relieved, but the inventory pressure is large. The supply of caustic soda remains high, and the inventory pressure is also large [8]. - The glass and soda ash markets are affected by macro - sentiment. The impact of US tariffs is limited. The glass market has a weak driving force for cold repair and ignition, and the soda ash market has supply pressure and slow demand growth [9]. Summary by Product Methanol - The direct impact of Trump's tariff increase is limited but may be indirectly transmitted through the olefin end. After - holiday prices dropped due to crude oil. Overseas idle capacity utilization increased, short - term port arrivals are low, but the support for the market is limited. The domestic production increased, and the supply - demand side is expected to turn loose [2]. Urea - The futures market dropped due to macro - sentiment. Current purchases are mainly for industrial and agricultural needs, and the production enterprise inventory has dropped to the same level as previous years. The supply pressure at a high level continues, and the short - term market is expected to fluctuate and correct [3]. Polyolefin - The market dropped due to oil price decline and macro - risks. The supply of polyethylene increased, and its demand is weak. The supply - side pressure of polypropylene is limited, and its demand has rigid support [4]. Styrene - The futures market dropped. The supply - demand side has a weak leading role, and the price is under pressure from the cost side due to the decline in international oil prices [6]. Polyester - Affected by the US tariff, the cost and demand are both weak. The supply - demand pattern of ethylene glycol in the domestic market is expected to improve, and the short - fiber market has double negative factors of cost and demand [7]. Chlor - Alkali - The PVC and caustic soda markets are affected by macro - sentiment. The impact of tariffs is limited. The supply pressure of PVC is relieved, but the inventory pressure is large. The supply of caustic soda remains high, and the inventory pressure is also large [8]. Glass and Soda Ash - The markets are affected by macro - sentiment. The impact of US tariffs is limited. The glass market has a weak driving force for cold repair and ignition, and the soda ash market has supply pressure and slow demand growth [9].