Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a PVC industry daily report dated July 14, 2025 [2] Group 2: Market Data Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures is 5010 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 30 yuan/ton. The trading volume is 1033615 lots, a decrease of 198725 lots. The open interest is 956791 lots, a decrease of 10556 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is 8696 lots, an increase of 3254 lots [3] Spot Market - In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 5025 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the price of calcium carbide - based PVC is 4888.85 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.69 yuan/ton. In the South China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 5030 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton, and the price of calcium carbide - based PVC is 4949.38 yuan/ton, an increase of 12.5 yuan/ton. The CIF price of PVC in China is 700 dollars/ton (unchanged), and the CIF price in Southeast Asia is 660 dollars/ton (unchanged). The FOB price in Northwest Europe is 750 dollars/ton (unchanged). The basis of PVC is - 160 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton [3] Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China is 2650 yuan/ton (unchanged), in North China is 2630 yuan/ton (unchanged), and in Northwest China is 2388 yuan/ton (unchanged). The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia is 50.5 yuan/ton (unchanged). The CFR mid - price of VCM in the Far East is 503 dollars/ton, a decrease of 21 dollars/ton, and in Southeast Asia is 548 dollars/ton, a decrease of 16 dollars/ton. The CFR mid - price of EDC in the Far East is 211 dollars/ton, an increase of 27 dollars/ton, and in Southeast Asia is 219 dollars/ton, an increase of 31 dollars/ton [3] Industry Situation - The weekly operating rate of PVC is 76.97%, a decrease of 0.47%. The operating rate of calcium carbide - based PVC is 79.21%, a decrease of 1.59%. The operating rate of ethylene - based PVC is 71.02%, an increase of 2.48%. The total social inventory of PVC is 39.27 tons, an increase of 1.96 tons. The social inventory in East China is 34.98 tons, an increase of 1.95 tons, and in South China is 4.29 tons, an increase of 0.01 tons [3] Downstream Situation - The national real - estate climate index is 93.72, a decrease of 0.14. The cumulative value of new housing construction area is 23183.61 million square meters, an increase of 5347.77 million square meters. The cumulative value of real - estate construction area is 625019.54 million square meters, an increase of 4704.49 million square meters. The cumulative value of real - estate development investment is 19154.81 billion yuan, an increase of 4281.68 billion yuan [3] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC is 15.35%, an increase of 0.09%. The 40 - day historical volatility is 14.64%, a decrease of 0.69%. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 19.53%, a decrease of 0.19%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 19.45%, a decrease of 0.28% [3] Group 3: Industry News - On July 14, the spot exchange price of PVCSG5 in Changzhou decreased by 10 - 40 yuan/ton compared to last Friday, with the price ranging from 4810 to 4910 yuan/ton [3] - From July 5th to 11th, China's PVC capacity utilization rate was 76.97%, a decrease of 0.47% compared to the previous period [3] - As of July 10th, the large - sample statistical social inventory of PVC increased by 5.37% to 62.36 tons compared to the previous period, a year - on - year decrease of 34.15% [3] Group 4: Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, the supply of ethylene - based PVC may increase due to the lifting of the ban on US ethane exports, leading to a potential decline in costs. In July, domestic PVC plants are undergoing concentrated maintenance, and some plants are scheduled to restart and new plants are planned to be put into operation, which may increase the supply in the medium - to - long - term. The domestic downstream is in the off - season, and the Indian market demand is suppressed by the rainy season. The anti - dumping policy may be implemented this month. With the digestion of previous macro - positive factors, the upside potential of PVC prices is limited under the weak supply - demand situation. The V2509 contract is expected to pay attention to the support around 4935 yuan/ton and the resistance around 5050 yuan/ton [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The V2509 is expected to fluctuate in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the support around 4800 and the resistance around 4900. The domestic PVC industry is in a period of intensive maintenance, with expected decreasing capacity utilization. The domestic downstream is in the off - season, and the cost factors are complex. The inventory pressure is not significant, and the de - stocking trend has slowed down [3][4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures was 4871 yuan/ton, up 27 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 729,041 lots, down 461,016 lots. The open interest was 922,719 lots, down 12,242 lots [3]. - The long position of the top 20 futures holders was 739,041 lots, down 8,461 lots; the short position was 738,557 lots, down 24,222 lots; the net long position was 484 lots, up 15,761 lots [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC was 4970 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC was 4750 yuan/ton, down 65.77 yuan/ton. In the South China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC was 4950 yuan/ton, down 32.5 yuan/ton; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC was 4821.25 yuan/ton, down 53.75 yuan/ton [3]. - The CIF price of PVC in China was 710 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF price in Southeast Asia was 670 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price in Northwest Europe was 740 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of PVC was - 131 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan/ton [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China was 2700 yuan/ton, unchanged; in North China, it was 2698.33 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Northwest China, it was 2450 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia was 50.5 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. - The mid - price of VCM CFR Far East was 524 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the mid - price of VCM CFR Southeast Asia was 564 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The mid - price of EDC CFR Far East was 176 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the mid - price of EDC CFR Southeast Asia was 178 US dollars/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The weekly operating rate of PVC was 78.62%, down 0.63 percentage points. The operating rate of calcium carbide - based PVC was 80.43%, down 1.34 percentage points; the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC was 73.81%, up 1.22 percentage points [3]. - The total social inventory of PVC was 35.51 million tons, up 0.03 million tons. The total social inventory in the East China region was 31.23 million tons, up 0.01 million tons; the total social inventory in the South China region was 4.28 million tons, up 0.02 million tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real - estate climate index was 93.72, down 0.14. The cumulative value of new housing construction area was 231.8361 million square meters, up 53.4777 million square meters. The cumulative value of real - estate construction area was 6.2501954 billion square meters, up 47.0449 million square meters. The cumulative value of real - estate development investment was 1915.481 billion yuan, up 428.168 billion yuan [3]. 3.6 Options Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC was 13.14%, down 0.99 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 15.75%, down 0.02 percentage points [3]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 20.45%, down 1.06 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 20.45%, down 1.06 percentage points [3]. 3.7 Industry News - On June 25, the cash - on - delivery price of PVCSG5 in Changzhou warehouses increased by 10 - 30 yuan/ton compared to the previous day, with the price ranging from 4700 to 4780 yuan/ton [3]. - From June 13th to 19th, China's PVC capacity utilization rate was 78.62%, a 0.63% decrease from the previous period [3]. - As of June 19th, the new sample statistics of PVC social inventory decreased by 0.74% month - on - month to 569,300 tons, a 37.97% decrease year - on - year [3].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core View The V2509 contract of PVC showed a volatile trend. The supply side saw a decline in PVC capacity utilization rate, and the demand side also had a decrease in downstream开工率. The inventory showed a de - stocking trend but at a slower pace with relatively low inventory pressure. The domestic PVC industry is in a peak maintenance period, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to continue to decline. The domestic downstream is in the off - season. The Indian BIS certification is postponed to mid - December, and anti - dumping policies may be implemented in early July. In terms of cost, some calcium carbide maintenance devices have resumed, but the supply in the northwest region is restricted by production cuts, and the raw material price of the ethylene method is supported by strong oil prices. Considering the digestion of geopolitical factors in the Middle East, the short - term V2509 is expected to fluctuate, with the daily K - line focusing on the support around 4850 and the pressure around 4950 [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures was 4896 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan; the trading volume was 992,189 lots, down 63,888 lots; the open interest was 969,157 lots, up 16,127 lots. The long positions of the top 20 futures were 753,218 lots, down 1,866 lots; the short positions were 783,171 lots, up 21,589 lots; the net long positions were - 29,953 lots, down 23,455 lots [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC was 5025 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC was 4824.62 yuan/ton, up 28.46 yuan. In the South China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC was 4982.5 yuan/ton, up 22.5 yuan; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC was 4882.5 yuan/ton, up 26.25 yuan. The CIF price of PVC in China was 710 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF price in Southeast Asia was 670 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price in Northwest Europe was 740 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of PVC was - 86 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China was 2700 yuan/ton, unchanged; in North China, it was 2698.33 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the Northwest, it was 2480 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia was 50.5 yuan/ton, unchanged. The mid - price of VCM CFR Far East was 524 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the mid - price of VCM CFR Southeast Asia was 564 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The mid - price of EDC CFR Far East was 176 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the mid - price of EDC CFR Southeast Asia was 178 US dollars/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The overall PVC开工率 was 78.62%, down 0.63 percentage points; the calcium carbide - based PVC开工率 was 80.43%, down 1.34 percentage points; the ethylene - based PVC开工率 was 73.81%, up 1.22 percentage points. The total social inventory of PVC was 35.51 million tons, up 0.03 million tons. The social inventory in the East China region was 31.23 million tons, up 0.01 million tons; in the South China region, it was 4.28 million tons, up 0.02 million tons. The national real estate prosperity index was 93.72, down 0.14; the cumulative value of new housing construction area was 231.8361 million square meters, up 53.4777 million square meters [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The cumulative value of real estate construction area was 6.2501954 billion square meters, up 47.0449 million square meters; the cumulative value of real estate development investment was 1915.481 billion yuan, up 428.168 billion yuan [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC was 15.01%, up 0.95 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 16.93%, up 0.38 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 21.51%, up 0.92 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 21.51%, up 0.93 percentage points [3]. 3.7 Industry News - On June 23, the spot exchange price of PVCSG5 in Changzhou decreased by 10 - 30 yuan/ton compared with last Friday, with the price ranging from 4780 to 4860 yuan/ton. From June 6 to 12, China's PVC capacity utilization rate was 79.25%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.47%. As of June 19, the new sample statistics of PVC social inventory decreased by 0.74% month - on - month to 569,300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 37.97% [3].

Summary of Titanium Dioxide Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The titanium dioxide (TiO2) market is projected to have an average price of approximately 1,700 RMB in 2025, influenced by fluctuations in raw material prices, particularly titanium ore. After an initial price increase in Q1, prices began to decline, with a cumulative drop of about 500 RMB expected in Q3, typically a peak season, leading to a pessimistic market sentiment [1][3][5]. Key Points Market Dynamics - The titanium dioxide industry is facing a long-term oversupply issue, with an expected addition of 710,000 tons of new capacity in 2024 and 1,400,000 tons in 2025. This will bring total capacity close to the global annual demand, resulting in high inventory levels that suppress prices post-peak season [1][4][9]. - Major exporting countries such as India, Brazil, and the EU have imposed anti-dumping duties on Chinese titanium dioxide companies, negatively impacting exports. For instance, the EU has levied a duty of 740 EUR per ton on Longbai Group [1][6][9]. Export Performance - In Q1 2025, Asia emerged as the primary export market with an export volume of approximately 320,000 tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 25%. Conversely, exports to Europe fell by nearly 47% to 63,500 tons due to anti-dumping duties, while Latin America saw a decline of 10%-13% to 54,000 tons [1][7]. Financial Performance - Most titanium dioxide companies reported a year-on-year decline in revenue and profit, reaching their lowest levels in the past 2-3 years. While some leading companies showed signs of recovery in Q1 2025, overall profitability remains under significant pressure due to supply-side expansion and demand constraints from anti-dumping policies [1][10]. Challenges and Risks - The industry is currently grappling with multiple challenges, including downward price pressure and the impact of anti-dumping policies on major export markets, which may exacerbate growth pressures for the year. The anticipated new capacity of 1,400,000 tons in 2025 may be delayed or not put into production due to declining profitability [1][8][9]. - There is a potential for marginal improvement in the industry as smaller or higher-cost capacities may gradually exit the market. However, the performance of the traditional peak season in Q3 remains uncertain, particularly in light of last year's "peak season not peaking" phenomenon [2][11]. Conclusion - The titanium dioxide industry is at a critical juncture, facing significant challenges from oversupply, anti-dumping measures, and declining profitability. While leading companies like Longbai Group maintain some competitive edge due to resource advantages, the overall outlook for the industry remains cautious as it navigates these pressures [2][11].