因我国初步裁定加拿大油菜籽构成倾销并对其采取反倾销措施，原料供应收紧的担忧驱动8月中旬菜粕 价格大幅拉涨，菜粕期价刷新逾一年新高。进入9月份，国内油厂菜粕库存低位，主要港口库存不断下 降，预计菜粕现货价格或高位运行。 国内压榨菜粕原料为进口油菜籽，近五年加拿大油菜籽供应占据重要地位。海关数据统计显示，2025年 1-7月份，我国油菜籽进口量共计208.40万吨，其中加拿大油菜籽进口量197.56万吨，市场占有率高达 95%。此前，市场关于8月份国内加拿大油菜籽买船计划为3船，9-10月分别有2船、1船。政策背景下， 8月14日后到港通关的加拿大油菜籽将面临缴纳高额保证金的压力，原料进口成本攀升的风险转移至国 内油厂，截至8月14日，华南区域沿海油厂已有2船加拿大油菜籽抵达，8月下旬及9-10月原定采购计划 取消概率或增大。近日市场关于澳大利亚油菜籽进口消息增多，考虑到澳籽作物年度在12/11月，因此 进入中国市场补充供应的时间参考11-12月，因此压榨菜粕原料将于9-10月份存在缺口。 受反倾销政策和市场有关澳洲菜籽进口的传闻影响，8月12日至今，国内菜粕现货价格整体呈现先涨后 跌走势。8月13日菜粕期货RM ...

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - There is no information about the report's industry investment rating provided in the documents. Group 2: Core Views - Short - term nickel prices will mainly show a volatile trend, being more affected by macro - emotions. However, the pattern of oversupply remains unchanged, and the contradiction between the release of Indonesian production capacity and weak stainless steel demand is still unresolved, so nickel prices are under pressure in the medium term [3]. - Under the dual pressure of abundant nickel ore supply from Indonesia and South Korea's anti - dumping policy, stainless steel is under medium - term pressure. It is recommended to pay attention to the implementation of domestic steel mill production cuts in September and the marginal improvement signals of new energy vehicle demand [6]. Group 3: Nickel Variety Market Analysis Futures - On August 13, 2025, the main contract 2509 of Shanghai nickel opened at 122,520 yuan/ton and closed at 122,340 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.24% from the previous trading day's close. The night - session volume was 96,355 lots, and the day - session volume was 89,510 lots. The position decreased from 73,889 lots at night to 70,930 lots during the day, indicating continuous capital outflow [2]. Nickel Ore - The nickel ore market remained calm with stable prices. Philippine mines had a strong attitude of holding up prices, and downstream iron plants' loss narrowed, so their pressure on raw material procurement prices eased. In Indonesia, the August (Phase I) domestic trade benchmark price increased by 0.2 - 0.3 dollars, and the August (Phase I) premium was mainly +24, unchanged from the previous period [3]. Spot - Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market was 124,900 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the upward momentum continued to slow down. Downstream enterprises still had strong waiting - and - seeing sentiment, and the overall spot trading of refined nickel was average [3]. Group 4: Nickel Variety Strategy - Unilateral: mainly conduct range operations; Cross - period: no operation; Cross - variety: no operation; Spot - futures: no operation; Options: no operation [3] Group 5: Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis Futures - On August 13, 2025, the main contract 2509 of stainless steel opened at 13,215 yuan/ton and closed at 13,130 yuan/ton. The night - session volume was 130,400 lots, and the day - session volume was 160,300 lots. The position increased from 143,700 lots at night to 144,200 lots during the day, indicating that short - sellers dominated [4][5]. Spot - In the morning, due to weak trading and falling futures prices, many sellers lowered their quotes to promote transactions. The overall inquiry atmosphere decreased compared with before, but as the traditional peak season approached, most downstream enterprises were still bullish on the future. The stainless steel prices in Wuxi and Foshan markets were both 13,300 yuan/ton [5]. Group 6: Stainless Steel Variety Strategy - Unilateral: neutral; Cross - period: no operation; Cross - variety: no operation; Spot - futures: no operation; Options: no operation [6]

Core Viewpoint - The export volume and average price of titanium dioxide from China have declined year-on-year and month-on-month in the first half of this year, marking a continuous decrease for three months in a row for month-on-month exports and four months for year-on-year exports. The main reasons for this decline are anti-dumping policies from India and Brazil, coupled with a slowdown in global economic growth leading to reduced end-user demand [1][2]. Group 1: Export Performance - China's titanium dioxide exports to India fell by 49% year-on-year in the second quarter, while exports to Brazil plummeted by 56% year-on-year due to the implementation of anti-dumping taxes [1]. - The overall export data for the first half of the year shows a decline in both volume and price, indicating a challenging market environment [2]. Group 2: Market Conditions - The anti-dumping policies from the EU, Brazil, and India have significantly pressured China's titanium dioxide exports, leading to a crisis in export volumes [2]. - Global demand for titanium dioxide is weak, with cautious purchasing behavior observed in Europe, South America, and Southeast Asia due to economic uncertainties and recovery challenges [1]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest a cautiously optimistic outlook for the titanium dioxide market, believing that China's advantages will eventually lead to a recovery, although this depends on global economic recovery and industry reforms [2]. - It is recommended that domestic titanium dioxide companies accelerate the exploration of non-restricted markets such as the Middle East and Africa, or consider overseas capacity layouts to mitigate long-term export pressures [1][2].

Core Viewpoint - The export volume and average price of titanium dioxide from China have declined in the first half of the year due to anti-dumping policies from India and Brazil, combined with weak global demand, leading to a challenging market environment for Chinese exporters [1][2][3] Group 1: Export Performance - China's titanium dioxide exports have seen a continuous decline for three months on a month-on-month basis and four months on a year-on-year basis [1] - In the second quarter, exports to India dropped by 49% year-on-year, while exports to Brazil fell by 56% year-on-year due to the implementation of anti-dumping taxes [1] Group 2: Market Conditions - The global demand for titanium dioxide is weak, with cautious purchasing observed in Europe, South America, and Southeast Asia [2] - Economic recovery in Europe is sluggish, impacting paint demand and leading to reduced titanium dioxide purchases [2] - South American currency fluctuations and economic uncertainties have resulted in customers primarily placing small orders, exacerbated by the anti-dumping tax effects in Brazil [2] Group 3: Future Outlook - The industry expert suggests that the export volume of titanium dioxide from China will remain under pressure in the third quarter, with limited relief for domestic companies [3] - There is a recommendation for domestic titanium dioxide companies to explore non-restricted markets such as the Middle East and Africa, or to establish overseas production capacities to mitigate trade barriers [3]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a PVC industry daily report dated July 14, 2025 [2] Group 2: Market Data Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures is 5010 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 30 yuan/ton. The trading volume is 1033615 lots, a decrease of 198725 lots. The open interest is 956791 lots, a decrease of 10556 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is 8696 lots, an increase of 3254 lots [3] Spot Market - In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 5025 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the price of calcium carbide - based PVC is 4888.85 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.69 yuan/ton. In the South China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 5030 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton, and the price of calcium carbide - based PVC is 4949.38 yuan/ton, an increase of 12.5 yuan/ton. The CIF price of PVC in China is 700 dollars/ton (unchanged), and the CIF price in Southeast Asia is 660 dollars/ton (unchanged). The FOB price in Northwest Europe is 750 dollars/ton (unchanged). The basis of PVC is - 160 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton [3] Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China is 2650 yuan/ton (unchanged), in North China is 2630 yuan/ton (unchanged), and in Northwest China is 2388 yuan/ton (unchanged). The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia is 50.5 yuan/ton (unchanged). The CFR mid - price of VCM in the Far East is 503 dollars/ton, a decrease of 21 dollars/ton, and in Southeast Asia is 548 dollars/ton, a decrease of 16 dollars/ton. The CFR mid - price of EDC in the Far East is 211 dollars/ton, an increase of 27 dollars/ton, and in Southeast Asia is 219 dollars/ton, an increase of 31 dollars/ton [3] Industry Situation - The weekly operating rate of PVC is 76.97%, a decrease of 0.47%. The operating rate of calcium carbide - based PVC is 79.21%, a decrease of 1.59%. The operating rate of ethylene - based PVC is 71.02%, an increase of 2.48%. The total social inventory of PVC is 39.27 tons, an increase of 1.96 tons. The social inventory in East China is 34.98 tons, an increase of 1.95 tons, and in South China is 4.29 tons, an increase of 0.01 tons [3] Downstream Situation - The national real - estate climate index is 93.72, a decrease of 0.14. The cumulative value of new housing construction area is 23183.61 million square meters, an increase of 5347.77 million square meters. The cumulative value of real - estate construction area is 625019.54 million square meters, an increase of 4704.49 million square meters. The cumulative value of real - estate development investment is 19154.81 billion yuan, an increase of 4281.68 billion yuan [3] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC is 15.35%, an increase of 0.09%. The 40 - day historical volatility is 14.64%, a decrease of 0.69%. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 19.53%, a decrease of 0.19%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 19.45%, a decrease of 0.28% [3] Group 3: Industry News - On July 14, the spot exchange price of PVCSG5 in Changzhou decreased by 10 - 40 yuan/ton compared to last Friday, with the price ranging from 4810 to 4910 yuan/ton [3] - From July 5th to 11th, China's PVC capacity utilization rate was 76.97%, a decrease of 0.47% compared to the previous period [3] - As of July 10th, the large - sample statistical social inventory of PVC increased by 5.37% to 62.36 tons compared to the previous period, a year - on - year decrease of 34.15% [3] Group 4: Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, the supply of ethylene - based PVC may increase due to the lifting of the ban on US ethane exports, leading to a potential decline in costs. In July, domestic PVC plants are undergoing concentrated maintenance, and some plants are scheduled to restart and new plants are planned to be put into operation, which may increase the supply in the medium - to - long - term. The domestic downstream is in the off - season, and the Indian market demand is suppressed by the rainy season. The anti - dumping policy may be implemented this month. With the digestion of previous macro - positive factors, the upside potential of PVC prices is limited under the weak supply - demand situation. The V2509 contract is expected to pay attention to the support around 4935 yuan/ton and the resistance around 5050 yuan/ton [3]

。国内下游需求淡季。印度BIS认证延期至12月中旬，反倾销政策或将于7月上旬落地。成本方面，本周部 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 分电石检修装置恢复，但西北地区电石供应受限产影响；伊朗、以色列同意全面停火，近期国际油价大幅 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 助理研究员: 徐天泽 期货从业资格号F03133092 下挫，乙烯法成本预计由强转弱。中东地缘冲突因素影响消退，短期V2509预计震荡走势，关注4800附近 支撑与4900附近压力。 免责声明 | | | PVC产业日报 2025-06-25 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 收盘价:聚氯乙烯(PVC)(日,元/吨) | 4871 | 27 成交量:聚氯乙烯(PVC)(日,手) | 729041 | -461016 | | | 持仓量:聚氯乙烯(PVC)(日,手) | 922719 | -12242 期货前20名持仓:买单量:聚氯乙烯 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core View The V2509 contract of PVC showed a volatile trend. The supply side saw a decline in PVC capacity utilization rate, and the demand side also had a decrease in downstream开工率. The inventory showed a de - stocking trend but at a slower pace with relatively low inventory pressure. The domestic PVC industry is in a peak maintenance period, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to continue to decline. The domestic downstream is in the off - season. The Indian BIS certification is postponed to mid - December, and anti - dumping policies may be implemented in early July. In terms of cost, some calcium carbide maintenance devices have resumed, but the supply in the northwest region is restricted by production cuts, and the raw material price of the ethylene method is supported by strong oil prices. Considering the digestion of geopolitical factors in the Middle East, the short - term V2509 is expected to fluctuate, with the daily K - line focusing on the support around 4850 and the pressure around 4950 [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures was 4896 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan; the trading volume was 992,189 lots, down 63,888 lots; the open interest was 969,157 lots, up 16,127 lots. The long positions of the top 20 futures were 753,218 lots, down 1,866 lots; the short positions were 783,171 lots, up 21,589 lots; the net long positions were - 29,953 lots, down 23,455 lots [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC was 5025 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC was 4824.62 yuan/ton, up 28.46 yuan. In the South China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC was 4982.5 yuan/ton, up 22.5 yuan; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC was 4882.5 yuan/ton, up 26.25 yuan. The CIF price of PVC in China was 710 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF price in Southeast Asia was 670 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price in Northwest Europe was 740 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of PVC was - 86 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China was 2700 yuan/ton, unchanged; in North China, it was 2698.33 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the Northwest, it was 2480 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia was 50.5 yuan/ton, unchanged. The mid - price of VCM CFR Far East was 524 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the mid - price of VCM CFR Southeast Asia was 564 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The mid - price of EDC CFR Far East was 176 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the mid - price of EDC CFR Southeast Asia was 178 US dollars/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The overall PVC开工率 was 78.62%, down 0.63 percentage points; the calcium carbide - based PVC开工率 was 80.43%, down 1.34 percentage points; the ethylene - based PVC开工率 was 73.81%, up 1.22 percentage points. The total social inventory of PVC was 35.51 million tons, up 0.03 million tons. The social inventory in the East China region was 31.23 million tons, up 0.01 million tons; in the South China region, it was 4.28 million tons, up 0.02 million tons. The national real estate prosperity index was 93.72, down 0.14; the cumulative value of new housing construction area was 231.8361 million square meters, up 53.4777 million square meters [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The cumulative value of real estate construction area was 6.2501954 billion square meters, up 47.0449 million square meters; the cumulative value of real estate development investment was 1915.481 billion yuan, up 428.168 billion yuan [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC was 15.01%, up 0.95 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 16.93%, up 0.38 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 21.51%, up 0.92 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 21.51%, up 0.93 percentage points [3]. 3.7 Industry News - On June 23, the spot exchange price of PVCSG5 in Changzhou decreased by 10 - 30 yuan/ton compared with last Friday, with the price ranging from 4780 to 4860 yuan/ton. From June 6 to 12, China's PVC capacity utilization rate was 79.25%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.47%. As of June 19, the new sample statistics of PVC social inventory decreased by 0.74% month - on - month to 569,300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 37.97% [3].

化工子行业年报和 1 季报深度梳理 - 钛白粉 20250515 摘要 Q&A 2024 年及 2025 年一季度钛白粉行业的价格变化情况如何？ 2024 年全年钛白粉价格呈现下行趋势，尽管在传统旺季（3-4 月和 9-10 月） 通常会有显著上涨，但去年情况有所不同。2024 年初，由于春节检修导致开 工率下降，加之原材料钛矿价格坚挺，一季度钛白粉市场均价有所上升。然而， 随着第一个旺季结束，二季度进入传统淡季，价格逐渐恢复到一季度初的水平。 特别是三季度，本应是销售旺季的 9-10 月份，钛白粉价格累计下滑约 500 元， 库存高位及采购需求不旺导致市场情绪低迷。进入 2025 年一季度后，虽然出 现一定程度的价格上涨，但四月份以后又开始逐渐下滑，上游钛矿价格也从高 位快速下行，目前市场均价约为 1,700 元。 钛白粉行业供给侧面临哪些压力？ 钛白粉行业长期过剩问题日益凸显。2024 年新增产能约 71 万吨，而 2025 年 预计新增产能接近 140 万吨。截至 2024 年底，总产能已达 650 万吨以上，如 果今年新增产能全部投放，到年底国内总产能将达到 800 万吨左右，这几乎接 近全球每年的实 ...