钛白粉价格受供需关系主导，2024 年四季度开工率下滑致 2025 年初 价格反弹，随后开工率回升再次引发价格下滑，8 月开工率触底后价格 再次反弹。产能过剩、需求不振及反倾销政策加剧价格波动。 短期内钛白粉价格大幅下跌可能性小，9 月价格略有上调但仍处全年低 位。尽管销售价格上涨，但成本端压力导致多数厂家亏损或微亏。若上 游原材料成本进一步下降，不排除未来降价可能。 中国钛白粉行业面临显著扩张，2025 年有效产能预计增加 45 万吨， 2026 年预计再增 38 万吨，总产能或超 700 万吨。新增产能主要来自 贵州盛威福全、攀钢钒钛、内蒙古大地云天等企业。 近年来仅济南裕兴化工永久退出市场，产能 12 万吨。多数企业采取减 产或停产策略应对市场低迷，停产装置可快速恢复生产，但长时间停产 可能导致设备腐蚀，需定期检修。 受市场恶化影响，部分小型钛白粉企业计划退出，预计退出产能约 36 万吨。国家反内卷政策影响不明显，市场压力促使部分老旧装置面临淘 汰，需淘汰约 100 万吨过剩产能以改善供需失衡。 Q&A 全球钛白粉行业更新及未来展望 20250924 摘要 钛白粉行业近年来是否有企业退出市场？退出情况如 ...

Summary of the Conference Call for Hualu Hengsheng Industry Overview - The coal chemical industry is facing challenges of capacity expansion and weak demand, leading to inventory accumulation and price declines, resulting in poor overall profitability [2][5] - New capacity pressure in products like urea is significant, necessitating attention to potential adjustments in macro policies regarding capacity control [2][5] - The acetic acid market benefits from strong downstream PTA and EVA export demand, with future development dependent on changes in overseas demand and external factors like US interest rate cuts [2][8] - The DMF industry operates at low utilization rates, with no new capacity expected, and leading companies are likely to shift production towards more profitable products like dimethylamine [2][9] - The oxalic acid market is performing well, driven by recovery in traditional sectors and increased demand from new energy and electronics industries [2][10] Key Points on Hualu Hengsheng - Hualu Hengsheng, as a leading enterprise, benefits from a diversified downstream product portfolio and may gain from anti-involution policies [2][6] - In the urea sector, if supply is constrained while demand remains strong, the supply-demand relationship will improve [2][6] - The company maintains stable profits despite industry losses, with a focus on cost reduction and efficiency improvements [2][8][16] - Hualu Hengsheng's cash flow is robust, and its valuation is at historical lows, providing potential for excess returns during PPI upturns [3][16] - The company is undergoing upgrades to its synthesis platform and expanding its Jingzhou base, which will enhance its bottom-line profits [3][16][18] Market Dynamics - The coal chemical industry is currently in a phase of poor profitability, with many products struggling to maintain margins [5][15] - Urea production is expected to see an increase of 10 million tons by 2026, while domestic demand is around 70 million tons, indicating significant supply pressure [5] - The acetic acid market is at the bottom of the cycle but has good demand, particularly from exports [8] - The DMF industry is characterized by low operating rates and a lack of new capacity, leading to a micro-profit environment [9] - The oxalic acid market is optimistic, with expected double-digit growth driven by new energy and electronic sectors [10][11] Future Outlook - The coal chemical industry is expected to approach the end of its capacity expansion phase by early 2026, with potential turning points in late 2026 or 2027 [3][12] - Hualu Hengsheng's bottom-line profit is projected to reach approximately 4 billion yuan by the end of 2026 or early 2027, bolstered by ongoing capacity expansions and efficiency improvements [19] - The overall investment value in the coal chemical sector is currently low, but with clear bottom prices and profits, there is potential for recovery as external conditions improve [22]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government has preliminarily ruled that Canadian canola seeds constitute dumping, leading to anti-dumping measures that have tightened raw material supply and driven up canola meal prices to a new high in over a year [1][5]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Canola meal prices surged significantly in mid-August due to concerns over raw material supply tightening, with futures prices hitting a new high [1]. - As of August 15, 2025, the total canola meal inventory at major domestic ports was 567,500 tons, a week-on-week increase of 25,000 tons, or 4.60% [5]. - The supply of canola meal is expected to remain high due to low inventory levels at oil mills and major ports, with a forecasted average price increase [8]. Group 2: Import and Supply Issues - Canada has been a crucial supplier of canola seeds, accounting for 95% of imports in the first seven months of 2025, with a total import volume of 2.084 million tons [1]. - Following the imposition of high deposit requirements on Canadian canola seeds after August 14, the likelihood of canceling planned purchases for August and September has increased [1][3]. - The import volume of canola meal from Canada decreased by 23.20% year-on-year, while imports from other countries like the UAE and Russia have increased, but they do not sufficiently replace Canadian supplies [8]. Group 3: Production and Processing - The operating rate of oil mills has remained low since the second quarter, with only three companies maintaining production, leading to a forecasted canola meal output of 134,000 tons in August and a decrease to 114,000 tons in September [6][8]. - The anticipated shortage of Canadian canola seeds may lead to sporadic shutdowns of processing facilities by the end of September, further tightening canola meal supply [6].

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - There is no information about the report's industry investment rating provided in the documents. Group 2: Core Views - Short - term nickel prices will mainly show a volatile trend, being more affected by macro - emotions. However, the pattern of oversupply remains unchanged, and the contradiction between the release of Indonesian production capacity and weak stainless steel demand is still unresolved, so nickel prices are under pressure in the medium term [3]. - Under the dual pressure of abundant nickel ore supply from Indonesia and South Korea's anti - dumping policy, stainless steel is under medium - term pressure. It is recommended to pay attention to the implementation of domestic steel mill production cuts in September and the marginal improvement signals of new energy vehicle demand [6]. Group 3: Nickel Variety Market Analysis Futures - On August 13, 2025, the main contract 2509 of Shanghai nickel opened at 122,520 yuan/ton and closed at 122,340 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.24% from the previous trading day's close. The night - session volume was 96,355 lots, and the day - session volume was 89,510 lots. The position decreased from 73,889 lots at night to 70,930 lots during the day, indicating continuous capital outflow [2]. Nickel Ore - The nickel ore market remained calm with stable prices. Philippine mines had a strong attitude of holding up prices, and downstream iron plants' loss narrowed, so their pressure on raw material procurement prices eased. In Indonesia, the August (Phase I) domestic trade benchmark price increased by 0.2 - 0.3 dollars, and the August (Phase I) premium was mainly +24, unchanged from the previous period [3]. Spot - Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market was 124,900 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the upward momentum continued to slow down. Downstream enterprises still had strong waiting - and - seeing sentiment, and the overall spot trading of refined nickel was average [3]. Group 4: Nickel Variety Strategy - Unilateral: mainly conduct range operations; Cross - period: no operation; Cross - variety: no operation; Spot - futures: no operation; Options: no operation [3] Group 5: Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis Futures - On August 13, 2025, the main contract 2509 of stainless steel opened at 13,215 yuan/ton and closed at 13,130 yuan/ton. The night - session volume was 130,400 lots, and the day - session volume was 160,300 lots. The position increased from 143,700 lots at night to 144,200 lots during the day, indicating that short - sellers dominated [4][5]. Spot - In the morning, due to weak trading and falling futures prices, many sellers lowered their quotes to promote transactions. The overall inquiry atmosphere decreased compared with before, but as the traditional peak season approached, most downstream enterprises were still bullish on the future. The stainless steel prices in Wuxi and Foshan markets were both 13,300 yuan/ton [5]. Group 6: Stainless Steel Variety Strategy - Unilateral: neutral; Cross - period: no operation; Cross - variety: no operation; Spot - futures: no operation; Options: no operation [6]

Core Viewpoint - The export volume and average price of titanium dioxide from China have declined year-on-year and month-on-month in the first half of this year, marking a continuous decrease for three months in a row for month-on-month exports and four months for year-on-year exports. The main reasons for this decline are anti-dumping policies from India and Brazil, coupled with a slowdown in global economic growth leading to reduced end-user demand [1][2]. Group 1: Export Performance - China's titanium dioxide exports to India fell by 49% year-on-year in the second quarter, while exports to Brazil plummeted by 56% year-on-year due to the implementation of anti-dumping taxes [1]. - The overall export data for the first half of the year shows a decline in both volume and price, indicating a challenging market environment [2]. Group 2: Market Conditions - The anti-dumping policies from the EU, Brazil, and India have significantly pressured China's titanium dioxide exports, leading to a crisis in export volumes [2]. - Global demand for titanium dioxide is weak, with cautious purchasing behavior observed in Europe, South America, and Southeast Asia due to economic uncertainties and recovery challenges [1]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest a cautiously optimistic outlook for the titanium dioxide market, believing that China's advantages will eventually lead to a recovery, although this depends on global economic recovery and industry reforms [2]. - It is recommended that domestic titanium dioxide companies accelerate the exploration of non-restricted markets such as the Middle East and Africa, or consider overseas capacity layouts to mitigate long-term export pressures [1][2].

Core Viewpoint - The export volume and average price of titanium dioxide from China have declined in the first half of the year due to anti-dumping policies from India and Brazil, combined with weak global demand, leading to a challenging market environment for Chinese exporters [1][2][3] Group 1: Export Performance - China's titanium dioxide exports have seen a continuous decline for three months on a month-on-month basis and four months on a year-on-year basis [1] - In the second quarter, exports to India dropped by 49% year-on-year, while exports to Brazil fell by 56% year-on-year due to the implementation of anti-dumping taxes [1] Group 2: Market Conditions - The global demand for titanium dioxide is weak, with cautious purchasing observed in Europe, South America, and Southeast Asia [2] - Economic recovery in Europe is sluggish, impacting paint demand and leading to reduced titanium dioxide purchases [2] - South American currency fluctuations and economic uncertainties have resulted in customers primarily placing small orders, exacerbated by the anti-dumping tax effects in Brazil [2] Group 3: Future Outlook - The industry expert suggests that the export volume of titanium dioxide from China will remain under pressure in the third quarter, with limited relief for domestic companies [3] - There is a recommendation for domestic titanium dioxide companies to explore non-restricted markets such as the Middle East and Africa, or to establish overseas production capacities to mitigate trade barriers [3]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a PVC industry daily report dated July 14, 2025 [2] Group 2: Market Data Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures is 5010 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 30 yuan/ton. The trading volume is 1033615 lots, a decrease of 198725 lots. The open interest is 956791 lots, a decrease of 10556 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is 8696 lots, an increase of 3254 lots [3] Spot Market - In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 5025 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the price of calcium carbide - based PVC is 4888.85 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.69 yuan/ton. In the South China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 5030 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton, and the price of calcium carbide - based PVC is 4949.38 yuan/ton, an increase of 12.5 yuan/ton. The CIF price of PVC in China is 700 dollars/ton (unchanged), and the CIF price in Southeast Asia is 660 dollars/ton (unchanged). The FOB price in Northwest Europe is 750 dollars/ton (unchanged). The basis of PVC is - 160 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton [3] Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China is 2650 yuan/ton (unchanged), in North China is 2630 yuan/ton (unchanged), and in Northwest China is 2388 yuan/ton (unchanged). The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia is 50.5 yuan/ton (unchanged). The CFR mid - price of VCM in the Far East is 503 dollars/ton, a decrease of 21 dollars/ton, and in Southeast Asia is 548 dollars/ton, a decrease of 16 dollars/ton. The CFR mid - price of EDC in the Far East is 211 dollars/ton, an increase of 27 dollars/ton, and in Southeast Asia is 219 dollars/ton, an increase of 31 dollars/ton [3] Industry Situation - The weekly operating rate of PVC is 76.97%, a decrease of 0.47%. The operating rate of calcium carbide - based PVC is 79.21%, a decrease of 1.59%. The operating rate of ethylene - based PVC is 71.02%, an increase of 2.48%. The total social inventory of PVC is 39.27 tons, an increase of 1.96 tons. The social inventory in East China is 34.98 tons, an increase of 1.95 tons, and in South China is 4.29 tons, an increase of 0.01 tons [3] Downstream Situation - The national real - estate climate index is 93.72, a decrease of 0.14. The cumulative value of new housing construction area is 23183.61 million square meters, an increase of 5347.77 million square meters. The cumulative value of real - estate construction area is 625019.54 million square meters, an increase of 4704.49 million square meters. The cumulative value of real - estate development investment is 19154.81 billion yuan, an increase of 4281.68 billion yuan [3] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC is 15.35%, an increase of 0.09%. The 40 - day historical volatility is 14.64%, a decrease of 0.69%. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 19.53%, a decrease of 0.19%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 19.45%, a decrease of 0.28% [3] Group 3: Industry News - On July 14, the spot exchange price of PVCSG5 in Changzhou decreased by 10 - 40 yuan/ton compared to last Friday, with the price ranging from 4810 to 4910 yuan/ton [3] - From July 5th to 11th, China's PVC capacity utilization rate was 76.97%, a decrease of 0.47% compared to the previous period [3] - As of July 10th, the large - sample statistical social inventory of PVC increased by 5.37% to 62.36 tons compared to the previous period, a year - on - year decrease of 34.15% [3] Group 4: Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, the supply of ethylene - based PVC may increase due to the lifting of the ban on US ethane exports, leading to a potential decline in costs. In July, domestic PVC plants are undergoing concentrated maintenance, and some plants are scheduled to restart and new plants are planned to be put into operation, which may increase the supply in the medium - to - long - term. The domestic downstream is in the off - season, and the Indian market demand is suppressed by the rainy season. The anti - dumping policy may be implemented this month. With the digestion of previous macro - positive factors, the upside potential of PVC prices is limited under the weak supply - demand situation. The V2509 contract is expected to pay attention to the support around 4935 yuan/ton and the resistance around 5050 yuan/ton [3]

。国内下游需求淡季。印度BIS认证延期至12月中旬，反倾销政策或将于7月上旬落地。成本方面，本周部 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 分电石检修装置恢复，但西北地区电石供应受限产影响；伊朗、以色列同意全面停火，近期国际油价大幅 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 助理研究员: 徐天泽 期货从业资格号F03133092 下挫，乙烯法成本预计由强转弱。中东地缘冲突因素影响消退，短期V2509预计震荡走势，关注4800附近 支撑与4900附近压力。 免责声明 | | | PVC产业日报 2025-06-25 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 收盘价:聚氯乙烯(PVC)(日,元/吨) | 4871 | 27 成交量:聚氯乙烯(PVC)(日,手) | 729041 | -461016 | | | 持仓量:聚氯乙烯(PVC)(日,手) | 922719 | -12242 期货前20名持仓:买单量:聚氯乙烯 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core View The V2509 contract of PVC showed a volatile trend. The supply side saw a decline in PVC capacity utilization rate, and the demand side also had a decrease in downstream开工率. The inventory showed a de - stocking trend but at a slower pace with relatively low inventory pressure. The domestic PVC industry is in a peak maintenance period, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to continue to decline. The domestic downstream is in the off - season. The Indian BIS certification is postponed to mid - December, and anti - dumping policies may be implemented in early July. In terms of cost, some calcium carbide maintenance devices have resumed, but the supply in the northwest region is restricted by production cuts, and the raw material price of the ethylene method is supported by strong oil prices. Considering the digestion of geopolitical factors in the Middle East, the short - term V2509 is expected to fluctuate, with the daily K - line focusing on the support around 4850 and the pressure around 4950 [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures was 4896 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan; the trading volume was 992,189 lots, down 63,888 lots; the open interest was 969,157 lots, up 16,127 lots. The long positions of the top 20 futures were 753,218 lots, down 1,866 lots; the short positions were 783,171 lots, up 21,589 lots; the net long positions were - 29,953 lots, down 23,455 lots [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC was 5025 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC was 4824.62 yuan/ton, up 28.46 yuan. In the South China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC was 4982.5 yuan/ton, up 22.5 yuan; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC was 4882.5 yuan/ton, up 26.25 yuan. The CIF price of PVC in China was 710 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF price in Southeast Asia was 670 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price in Northwest Europe was 740 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of PVC was - 86 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China was 2700 yuan/ton, unchanged; in North China, it was 2698.33 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the Northwest, it was 2480 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia was 50.5 yuan/ton, unchanged. The mid - price of VCM CFR Far East was 524 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the mid - price of VCM CFR Southeast Asia was 564 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The mid - price of EDC CFR Far East was 176 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the mid - price of EDC CFR Southeast Asia was 178 US dollars/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The overall PVC开工率 was 78.62%, down 0.63 percentage points; the calcium carbide - based PVC开工率 was 80.43%, down 1.34 percentage points; the ethylene - based PVC开工率 was 73.81%, up 1.22 percentage points. The total social inventory of PVC was 35.51 million tons, up 0.03 million tons. The social inventory in the East China region was 31.23 million tons, up 0.01 million tons; in the South China region, it was 4.28 million tons, up 0.02 million tons. The national real estate prosperity index was 93.72, down 0.14; the cumulative value of new housing construction area was 231.8361 million square meters, up 53.4777 million square meters [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The cumulative value of real estate construction area was 6.2501954 billion square meters, up 47.0449 million square meters; the cumulative value of real estate development investment was 1915.481 billion yuan, up 428.168 billion yuan [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC was 15.01%, up 0.95 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 16.93%, up 0.38 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 21.51%, up 0.92 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 21.51%, up 0.93 percentage points [3]. 3.7 Industry News - On June 23, the spot exchange price of PVCSG5 in Changzhou decreased by 10 - 30 yuan/ton compared with last Friday, with the price ranging from 4780 to 4860 yuan/ton. From June 6 to 12, China's PVC capacity utilization rate was 79.25%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.47%. As of June 19, the new sample statistics of PVC social inventory decreased by 0.74% month - on - month to 569,300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 37.97% [3].

Summary of Titanium Dioxide Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The titanium dioxide (TiO2) market is projected to have an average price of approximately 1,700 RMB in 2025, influenced by fluctuations in raw material prices, particularly titanium ore. After an initial price increase in Q1, prices began to decline, with a cumulative drop of about 500 RMB expected in Q3, typically a peak season, leading to a pessimistic market sentiment [1][3][5]. Key Points Market Dynamics - The titanium dioxide industry is facing a long-term oversupply issue, with an expected addition of 710,000 tons of new capacity in 2024 and 1,400,000 tons in 2025. This will bring total capacity close to the global annual demand, resulting in high inventory levels that suppress prices post-peak season [1][4][9]. - Major exporting countries such as India, Brazil, and the EU have imposed anti-dumping duties on Chinese titanium dioxide companies, negatively impacting exports. For instance, the EU has levied a duty of 740 EUR per ton on Longbai Group [1][6][9]. Export Performance - In Q1 2025, Asia emerged as the primary export market with an export volume of approximately 320,000 tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 25%. Conversely, exports to Europe fell by nearly 47% to 63,500 tons due to anti-dumping duties, while Latin America saw a decline of 10%-13% to 54,000 tons [1][7]. Financial Performance - Most titanium dioxide companies reported a year-on-year decline in revenue and profit, reaching their lowest levels in the past 2-3 years. While some leading companies showed signs of recovery in Q1 2025, overall profitability remains under significant pressure due to supply-side expansion and demand constraints from anti-dumping policies [1][10]. Challenges and Risks - The industry is currently grappling with multiple challenges, including downward price pressure and the impact of anti-dumping policies on major export markets, which may exacerbate growth pressures for the year. The anticipated new capacity of 1,400,000 tons in 2025 may be delayed or not put into production due to declining profitability [1][8][9]. - There is a potential for marginal improvement in the industry as smaller or higher-cost capacities may gradually exit the market. However, the performance of the traditional peak season in Q3 remains uncertain, particularly in light of last year's "peak season not peaking" phenomenon [2][11]. Conclusion - The titanium dioxide industry is at a critical juncture, facing significant challenges from oversupply, anti-dumping measures, and declining profitability. While leading companies like Longbai Group maintain some competitive edge due to resource advantages, the overall outlook for the industry remains cautious as it navigates these pressures [2][11].