Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the upcoming "April Decision" as a critical period for economic and A-share performance verification, highlighting concerns over potential new tariffs from the U.S. and a cautious narrative surrounding AI advancements [1][2]. Short-term Adjustment Triggers - The "April Decision" window is approaching, with the first quarter reports for the economy and A-shares set to validate market fundamentals. China's export growth is expected to naturally decline, and the impact of tariffs has yet to be fully realized. The effectiveness of fiscal policies remains to be seen [2][3]. - Concerns are rising regarding the U.S. potentially imposing additional tariffs on China, which could exacerbate economic volatility and suppress risk appetite in the market [2][3]. - A temporary lull in AI advancements is noted, with cautious narratives emerging about the slow progress of large models and the lack of blockbuster applications. This has led to a phase of adjustment in the tech sector [2][3]. Key Influencing Factors of the "April Decision" - The performance verification period is crucial, with expectations for revenue and net profit improvements in the domestic AI computing power industry due to high capital expenditures from internet giants and operators. However, the market's pessimistic expectations for performance reports are unlikely to lead to significant adjustments [3][4]. - The anticipated economic verification in April is expected to have limited marginal impact on the market, as the current expectations for cyclical improvement are low [4]. - The release of a U.S. tariff report on April 1 and subsequent actions may limit the significance of the "bad news" effect, with ongoing concerns about potential tariff increases affecting market sentiment [4][5]. AI Industry Trends - The AI industry is seen as a process where large models and computing power mutually promote breakthroughs in applications. The current phase is characterized by waiting for blockbuster applications, with market adjustments expected to be limited in scope and duration [5][6]. - The market is currently focused on the potential for application innovations, with the possibility of new highs in technology following the realization of these applications [6][7]. Defensive Investment Strategy - In the second quarter of 2025, a defensive investment mindset is favored, with a focus on high-dividend assets that offer both absolute and relative returns. The technology sector is expected to maintain its upward trend, with continued interest in domestic AI computing power and applications, embodied intelligence, and low-altitude economy investment opportunities [6][7]. - The shift of Hong Kong stocks towards A-share characteristics is noted, with high-dividend stocks and internet companies in Hong Kong expected to perform well in their respective styles [7].

// 市场要闻 // 2025中国发展高层论坛 于3月23日在北京钓鱼台国宾馆举行 。 今年论坛共有21个国家、86位跨国企业的正式代表出席论坛。中国发展高层论坛由国务院 发展研究中心主办，中国发展研究基金会承办。自2000年创办以来，已经成为推动中国与世界对话、合作的重要桥梁。 央行将会同金融监管等部门，研究出台金融支持扩大消费的专门文件。 商务部将加力扩围实施消费品以旧换新，开展汽车流通消费改革试点。财政部、 人社部将在补助、稳就业等方面多措并举，提升居民消费能力。市场监管总局将严格开展监管执法，针对价格欺诈等市场顽疾开展专项整治行动。 央行货币政策委员会召开第一季度例会，建议加大货币政策调控强度， 提高货币政策调控前瞻性、针对性、有效性，择机降准降息。明确将推动社会综 合融资成本"下降"而非上季度的"稳中有降"。对于支持资本市场的两项货币政策工具，会议提出"探索常态化的制度安排"。 多家商业银行消费贷利率目前已降至2.5%-2.8%区间， 消费金融市场正迎来新一轮发展机遇。业内人士表示，消费贷利率降低有助于提振消费，更好满 足消费领域金融需求，进而带动经济增长。 国务院常务会议研究建立健全涉企收费长效监 ...