Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the upcoming "April Decision" as a critical period for economic and A-share performance verification, highlighting concerns over potential new tariffs from the U.S. and a cautious narrative surrounding AI advancements [1][2]. Short-term Adjustment Triggers - The "April Decision" window is approaching, with the first quarter reports for the economy and A-shares set to validate market fundamentals. China's export growth is expected to naturally decline, and the impact of tariffs has yet to be fully realized. The effectiveness of fiscal policies remains to be seen [2][3]. - Concerns are rising regarding the U.S. potentially imposing additional tariffs on China, which could exacerbate economic volatility and suppress risk appetite in the market [2][3]. - A temporary lull in AI advancements is noted, with cautious narratives emerging about the slow progress of large models and the lack of blockbuster applications. This has led to a phase of adjustment in the tech sector [2][3]. Key Influencing Factors of the "April Decision" - The performance verification period is crucial, with expectations for revenue and net profit improvements in the domestic AI computing power industry due to high capital expenditures from internet giants and operators. However, the market's pessimistic expectations for performance reports are unlikely to lead to significant adjustments [3][4]. - The anticipated economic verification in April is expected to have limited marginal impact on the market, as the current expectations for cyclical improvement are low [4]. - The release of a U.S. tariff report on April 1 and subsequent actions may limit the significance of the "bad news" effect, with ongoing concerns about potential tariff increases affecting market sentiment [4][5]. AI Industry Trends - The AI industry is seen as a process where large models and computing power mutually promote breakthroughs in applications. The current phase is characterized by waiting for blockbuster applications, with market adjustments expected to be limited in scope and duration [5][6]. - The market is currently focused on the potential for application innovations, with the possibility of new highs in technology following the realization of these applications [6][7]. Defensive Investment Strategy - In the second quarter of 2025, a defensive investment mindset is favored, with a focus on high-dividend assets that offer both absolute and relative returns. The technology sector is expected to maintain its upward trend, with continued interest in domestic AI computing power and applications, embodied intelligence, and low-altitude economy investment opportunities [6][7]. - The shift of Hong Kong stocks towards A-share characteristics is noted, with high-dividend stocks and internet companies in Hong Kong expected to perform well in their respective styles [7].

Market News - The 2025 China Development Forum will be held on March 23 in Beijing, with representatives from 21 countries and 86 multinational companies attending, serving as an important bridge for dialogue and cooperation between China and the world [2] - China and Japan held their sixth economic high-level dialogue, emphasizing the need to accelerate trade cooperation and encourage innovation in areas such as artificial intelligence and green trade [2] - The Hong Kong government responded to Cheung Kong's proposed sale of port assets, highlighting the importance of a fair business environment and adherence to legal requirements [2] Economic Policies - The central bank plans to issue a special document to support consumption expansion, while the Ministry of Commerce will enhance the implementation of old-for-new consumption policies [3] - The central bank's monetary policy committee suggested increasing the intensity of monetary policy adjustments and exploring regular institutional arrangements to support the capital market [3] - Consumer loan rates from several commercial banks have dropped to the range of 2.5%-2.8%, indicating a new opportunity for growth in the consumer finance market [3] Industry Developments - The 2025 National Home Appliance Consumption Season has been launched, aiming to stimulate demand through policies and activities, including old-for-new programs [5] - The retail sales of communication equipment, including mobile phones, have seen rapid growth, with 42.19 million consumers applying for subsidies for new purchases, totaling sales of 66.95 billion yuan [6] - Dalian's cultural and tourism bureau has announced a plan to boost inbound tourism, aiming for a 50% increase in inbound visitors by 2025 [7] Company News - Xiaomi opened its first permanent store in Japan and plans to establish 5 to 10 stores nationwide by the end of the year, while also increasing its annual delivery target for electric vehicles to 350,000 units [9] - BYD will hold a launch event for its Qin L EV model, featuring over 100 luxury configurations and advanced technology [9] - Moutai Group reported an R&D investment of 820 million yuan in 2024, marking an 11% increase year-on-year, with significant advancements in innovation [9] Stock Market Insights - A total of 37 companies will have their restricted shares unlocked this week, with a total market value of 40.238 billion yuan based on the closing price on March 21 [13] - The highest market value of unlocked shares is from Xingchen Technology at 10.272 billion yuan, followed by Junpu Intelligent and Huarong Chemical [13][15] Upcoming IPOs - Three new stocks are set to be issued this week, with a total of approximately 156 million shares and expected fundraising of 3.167 billion yuan [17]