来源：格隆汇APP 格隆汇11月12日｜港股创新药板块高开高走，三生制药、百济神州涨6%，映恩生物、康方生物分别涨 4.36%、3.72%，带动同标的规模最大的恒生医药ETF涨2%。红利板块延续涨势，港股央企红利ETF涨 超1%，9月26日至今累计涨11%。 ③中国平安11月6日出资50亿买入中国电信港股， 持股比例提升至6.11%。 对于医药板块，兴业证券认为"创新+国际化"创新药产业趋势不变，短期调整后创新药板块弹性进一步 提升。对于红利板块，近期市场卖压盘较重，红利板块重获资金关注，兴业证券认为岁末年初，港股高 股息资产更吸睛。 可采用哑铃策略的产品，及截至发稿涨跌幅： 哑铃左侧，"央企+港股高股息"：港股央企红利ETF(513910)，+1.12%，权重股包含中远海控、东方海 外国际、中信银行、建设银行、中国海洋石油、中国石油股份。 哑铃右侧，全球医药全产业链代表：恒生医药ETF(159892)，+2.85%，同标的规模最大，前十大权重股 包括百济神州、药明生物、康方生物、中国生物制药、三生制药。 消息面上：①百济神州三季度实现总收入14亿美元，同比劲增41%，创下历史同期新高，期内GAAP净 利润为 ...

智通财经APP获悉，光大证券发布研报称，10月A股港股市场表现震荡。港股整体盈利能力相对较强， 同时互联网、新消费、创新药等资产相对稀缺。此外，尽管港股已经连续多月上涨，但是整体估值仍然 偏低，长期配置性价比仍较高。在AI产业趋势持续发展，以及美联储降息周期开启背景下，港股市场 未来或许将继续震荡上行。行业配置方面，中期关注TMT和先进制造板块，如果市场出现震荡则关注 滞涨方向，如高股息及消费板块。 光大证券主要观点如下： 10月A股港股市场表现震荡 10月A股主要指数涨跌互现。受海外预期波动、市场风险偏好回落等因素影响，10月(截至28日)，A股 主要指数分化明显，其中上证综指涨幅最大，10月份累计上涨了2.7%，而科创50跌幅最大，累计下跌 1.6%。10月各行业涨幅分化较为明显。受市场情绪回落、部分资金止盈等因素影响，煤炭、通信、银 行等行业表现较好。 10月港股市场有所回调。10月受海外不确定性加大、国内风险偏好回落等因素影响，港股市场整体走势 较为震荡。截至2025年10月28日，恒生香港35、恒生中国企业指数、恒生指数、恒生综合指数、恒生科 技指数的涨幅分别为0.2%、-1.9%、-1.9%、-2 ...

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market has experienced greater volatility compared to the A-share market in recent years, with 2020 marking a significant turning point [1] - Prior to 2020, the Hong Kong and US stock markets were positively correlated, but this changed post-2020 due to high valuations of growth and consumer stocks, regulatory challenges for internet companies, continuous foreign capital outflow, and risks associated with leading real estate companies [1] - Recent trends indicate a reversal in these factors, with a surge in IPO financing, leading companies' stock prices in Hong Kong surpassing those in A-shares, and a consistent increase in net purchases of Hong Kong stocks by southbound funds [1] Group 2 - Over the past year, sectors such as technology, dividends, and pharmaceuticals in the Hong Kong market have significantly outperformed the A-share market, with the level of stock holdings in Hong Kong becoming a critical factor for investment success [2] - Hong Kong internet companies have notably benefited from advancements in artificial intelligence, while high-dividend stocks have thrived in a low-interest-rate environment [2] - The innovative pharmaceutical sector, which faced substantial declines in previous years, is now experiencing explosive growth, driven by increased overseas business and improved domestic healthcare policies [2] Group 3 - Despite the recent rebound in the Hong Kong market, major indices are still considered to be undervalued compared to other global markets, indicating potential for further price increases [2] - The overall profitability of companies in the Hong Kong market has improved significantly, suggesting a need for re-evaluation of Chinese assets, starting with Hong Kong stocks [2] - Leading companies in the Hong Kong market are viewed as having better liquidity and higher potential returns, with capabilities to operate globally across various industries [2] Group 4 - Over the past decade, many industries in China have seen increased concentration, and the next five to ten years may witness a widening gap between industry leaders and followers [3] - Investment strategies focused on long-term holding and selecting understandable companies align closely with value investing principles [3] - The essence of successful investing is to "choose wisely, buy right, and hold on," with the holding phase being the most challenging and critical [3]

Market Performance - On July 1, the major stock indices in Shanghai and Shenzhen opened mixed, with the Shanghai Composite Index slightly higher and the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext Index also opening with minor gains. The Shanghai Composite Index showed a fluctuating upward trend throughout the day, closing at 3457.75 points, up 0.39%, marking a new year-to-date closing high [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 10476.29 points, up 0.11%, while the ChiNext Index closed at 2147.92 points, down 0.24%. The total trading volume for the Shanghai market was approximately 553.6 billion yuan, and for the Shenzhen market, it was about 912.5 billion yuan [1] Sector Performance - The pharmaceutical sector led the gains, with significant increases in various sub-sectors such as immunotherapy, innovative drugs, recombinant proteins, generic drugs, weight loss drugs, hepatitis concepts, and hair medical treatments. Other sectors that saw notable increases included shipbuilding, industrial gases, photolithography machines, banking, and superconducting concepts [1] - Conversely, digital currency stocks experienced significant declines, along with substantial adjustments in sectors like electronic identification, cross-border payments, and Web3 concepts [1] Institutional Insights - According to institutional views, the market is expected to experience fluctuations, with a historical 60% probability of the Shanghai Composite Index rising in July. Investors are advised to focus on defensive sectors in the early part of the month and shift attention to mid-year performance reports and policy movements later on. Key sectors to watch include technology (semiconductors, AI), military industry, and high-growth areas in mid-year reports [2] - Another institution emphasized the importance of focusing on performance-driven sectors and stable assets as the earnings season approaches, with expected growth in industries such as steel, computers, and defense [2] Policy Developments - The National Healthcare Security Administration announced that a draft for the commercial insurance innovative drug directory and the medical insurance directory will be released soon. This initiative aims to streamline the application process for companies and ensure that both directories are aligned in their adjustments [4] - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission is accelerating the development of the new energy vehicle industry, focusing on enhancing the capabilities of young talents in intelligent development and digital marketing [5]

Group 1 - The macro background for the A-share adjustment in Q2 includes a natural decline in Chinese exports and increased tariff threats from the US, leading to amplified macroeconomic expectations and a decrease in risk appetite [1][2] - The direct reason for the short-term market adjustment is the approaching "April Decision" period, which includes the verification of annual and quarterly reports, as well as economic data from China and the implementation of US tariffs [1][2] - The adjustment pressure from the April verification period is considered limited, with expectations for domestic AI computing power to potentially show strong differentiation and growth [1][3] Group 2 - The macroeconomic issues persisting into Q2 include the natural decline in Chinese exports and the potential for further US tariff threats, which may lead to a weak and volatile A-share market [2][4] - The narrative of the current technology adjustment is similar to the Nasdaq adjustment from July to October 2023, characterized by slow application realization and concerns over excessive investment in computing power [2][3] - The adjustment in domestic AI computing power is seen as a shorter phase compared to the US, as the industry is still in a stage of basic breakthroughs with insufficient application layer development [3][4] Group 3 - Defensive thinking is favored in Q2 2025, with a focus on high dividend relative returns and the strengthening of pricing power for short-term allocation funds [4][5] - The technology structural bull market is expected to continue into 2025, with investment opportunities identified in domestic AI computing power and applications, embodied intelligence, and low-altitude economy [4][5] - The valuation advantage of Hong Kong stocks over A-shares is highlighted, particularly in the context of insurance capital's increasing influence on high dividend assets [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the upcoming "April Decision" as a critical period for economic and A-share performance verification, highlighting concerns over potential new tariffs from the U.S. and a cautious narrative surrounding AI advancements [1][2]. Short-term Adjustment Triggers - The "April Decision" window is approaching, with the first quarter reports for the economy and A-shares set to validate market fundamentals. China's export growth is expected to naturally decline, and the impact of tariffs has yet to be fully realized. The effectiveness of fiscal policies remains to be seen [2][3]. - Concerns are rising regarding the U.S. potentially imposing additional tariffs on China, which could exacerbate economic volatility and suppress risk appetite in the market [2][3]. - A temporary lull in AI advancements is noted, with cautious narratives emerging about the slow progress of large models and the lack of blockbuster applications. This has led to a phase of adjustment in the tech sector [2][3]. Key Influencing Factors of the "April Decision" - The performance verification period is crucial, with expectations for revenue and net profit improvements in the domestic AI computing power industry due to high capital expenditures from internet giants and operators. However, the market's pessimistic expectations for performance reports are unlikely to lead to significant adjustments [3][4]. - The anticipated economic verification in April is expected to have limited marginal impact on the market, as the current expectations for cyclical improvement are low [4]. - The release of a U.S. tariff report on April 1 and subsequent actions may limit the significance of the "bad news" effect, with ongoing concerns about potential tariff increases affecting market sentiment [4][5]. AI Industry Trends - The AI industry is seen as a process where large models and computing power mutually promote breakthroughs in applications. The current phase is characterized by waiting for blockbuster applications, with market adjustments expected to be limited in scope and duration [5][6]. - The market is currently focused on the potential for application innovations, with the possibility of new highs in technology following the realization of these applications [6][7]. Defensive Investment Strategy - In the second quarter of 2025, a defensive investment mindset is favored, with a focus on high-dividend assets that offer both absolute and relative returns. The technology sector is expected to maintain its upward trend, with continued interest in domestic AI computing power and applications, embodied intelligence, and low-altitude economy investment opportunities [6][7]. - The shift of Hong Kong stocks towards A-share characteristics is noted, with high-dividend stocks and internet companies in Hong Kong expected to perform well in their respective styles [7].