全球格局重构与"十五五"战略新机遇 - 2026 年资本市 场年度策略展望 20251207 摘要 Q&A 2026 年资本市场的年度策略展望是什么？ 2026 年资本市场的年度策略展望主要从多个维度进行分析，包括美联储全球 流动性、中美关系、国内政策方向和科技发展等方面。首先，美联储的宽松政 策是否超预期是关键因素。如果只是被动宽松，即每次降息或宽松幅度低于市 场预期，这种宽松对市场影响有限。只有当美联储进入主动宽松阶段，才会对 市场产生正面影响。从现在到 2026 年底，即鲍威尔被换掉之前，美联储整体 处于被动宽松状态，很难进入主动宽松。 在 12 月即将举行的一期会议中，美 联储可能会选择降息 25 个基点，但明年的点阵图可能相对鹰派，或者不降息 但给出较鸽派的点阵图。特朗普可能在 12 月底或 1 月份提前宣布下届美联储 主席名单，如塞特，这将引发一波流动性宽松预期，对国内外股票尤其是科技 股有利。然而，这种预期只能持续一两个月，因为新任主席上任前不会发表过 多言论，而鲍威尔则可能更为鹰派。 全球科技股方面，尽管波动加大，但没有 2026 年科技方面重点配置围绕 AI 及其应用层面的相关产业，包括 A ...

Group 1 - The Hong Kong innovative drug sector experienced a strong performance, with companies like 3SBio and BeiGene rising by 6%, and others like InnoCare and CanSino Biologics increasing by 4.36% and 3.72% respectively, contributing to a 2% rise in the Hang Seng Pharmaceutical ETF [1] - BeiGene reported a total revenue of $1.4 billion for Q3, marking a 41% year-on-year increase and achieving a historical high for the same period, with a GAAP net profit of $125 million, reversing previous losses [1] - The negotiation for the 2025 National Basic Medical Insurance Drug List and the pricing discussions for innovative drugs in commercial insurance were completed last week, with expectations of active business development transactions in November and December, coinciding with major industry conferences [1] Group 2 - The Hong Kong Central Enterprise Dividend ETF saw a rise of over 1%, accumulating an 11% increase since September 26, indicating renewed investor interest in high-dividend assets as year-end approaches [1] - The Central Enterprise Dividend ETF includes major stocks such as COSCO Shipping Holdings, Orient Overseas International, CITIC Bank, China Construction Bank, China National Offshore Oil Corporation, and PetroChina [2] - The Hang Seng Pharmaceutical ETF, representing the global pharmaceutical industry chain, increased by 2.85%, with top-weighted stocks including BeiGene, WuXi Biologics, InnoCare, China National Pharmaceutical Group, and 3SBio [2]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share and Hong Kong stock markets experienced fluctuations in October, with Hong Kong showing strong overall profitability and low valuations despite recent gains [1][2][4]. A-share Market Summary - The A-share market showed mixed performance in October, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 2.7% while the Sci-Tech Innovation 50 Index fell by 1.6% [2]. - Various sectors exhibited significant performance divergence, with coal, telecommunications, and banking sectors performing well due to market sentiment and profit-taking [2][3]. - Positive factors such as the approval of the 15th Five-Year Plan and ongoing US-China trade negotiations are expected to bolster market confidence [3]. Hong Kong Market Summary - The Hong Kong stock market faced a pullback in October due to increased overseas uncertainties and a decline in domestic risk appetite, with major indices showing mixed results [2]. - Despite recent increases, the overall valuation of the Hong Kong market remains low, indicating a favorable long-term investment opportunity [1][4]. - The market is expected to continue a volatile upward trend, supported by the ongoing development of the AI industry and the commencement of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts [4]. Industry Configuration - Mid-term focus should be on the TMT (Technology, Media, Telecommunications) and advanced manufacturing sectors, with a shift to high-dividend and consumer sectors during market fluctuations [3][4]. - A "barbell" strategy is recommended, emphasizing both technology growth and high-dividend stocks, particularly in sectors like telecommunications, utilities, and banking [4].

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market has experienced greater volatility compared to the A-share market in recent years, with 2020 marking a significant turning point [1] - Prior to 2020, the Hong Kong and US stock markets were positively correlated, but this changed post-2020 due to high valuations of growth and consumer stocks, regulatory challenges for internet companies, continuous foreign capital outflow, and risks associated with leading real estate companies [1] - Recent trends indicate a reversal in these factors, with a surge in IPO financing, leading companies' stock prices in Hong Kong surpassing those in A-shares, and a consistent increase in net purchases of Hong Kong stocks by southbound funds [1] Group 2 - Over the past year, sectors such as technology, dividends, and pharmaceuticals in the Hong Kong market have significantly outperformed the A-share market, with the level of stock holdings in Hong Kong becoming a critical factor for investment success [2] - Hong Kong internet companies have notably benefited from advancements in artificial intelligence, while high-dividend stocks have thrived in a low-interest-rate environment [2] - The innovative pharmaceutical sector, which faced substantial declines in previous years, is now experiencing explosive growth, driven by increased overseas business and improved domestic healthcare policies [2] Group 3 - Despite the recent rebound in the Hong Kong market, major indices are still considered to be undervalued compared to other global markets, indicating potential for further price increases [2] - The overall profitability of companies in the Hong Kong market has improved significantly, suggesting a need for re-evaluation of Chinese assets, starting with Hong Kong stocks [2] - Leading companies in the Hong Kong market are viewed as having better liquidity and higher potential returns, with capabilities to operate globally across various industries [2] Group 4 - Over the past decade, many industries in China have seen increased concentration, and the next five to ten years may witness a widening gap between industry leaders and followers [3] - Investment strategies focused on long-term holding and selecting understandable companies align closely with value investing principles [3] - The essence of successful investing is to "choose wisely, buy right, and hold on," with the holding phase being the most challenging and critical [3]

Market Performance - On July 1, the major stock indices in Shanghai and Shenzhen opened mixed, with the Shanghai Composite Index slightly higher and the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext Index also opening with minor gains. The Shanghai Composite Index showed a fluctuating upward trend throughout the day, closing at 3457.75 points, up 0.39%, marking a new year-to-date closing high [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 10476.29 points, up 0.11%, while the ChiNext Index closed at 2147.92 points, down 0.24%. The total trading volume for the Shanghai market was approximately 553.6 billion yuan, and for the Shenzhen market, it was about 912.5 billion yuan [1] Sector Performance - The pharmaceutical sector led the gains, with significant increases in various sub-sectors such as immunotherapy, innovative drugs, recombinant proteins, generic drugs, weight loss drugs, hepatitis concepts, and hair medical treatments. Other sectors that saw notable increases included shipbuilding, industrial gases, photolithography machines, banking, and superconducting concepts [1] - Conversely, digital currency stocks experienced significant declines, along with substantial adjustments in sectors like electronic identification, cross-border payments, and Web3 concepts [1] Institutional Insights - According to institutional views, the market is expected to experience fluctuations, with a historical 60% probability of the Shanghai Composite Index rising in July. Investors are advised to focus on defensive sectors in the early part of the month and shift attention to mid-year performance reports and policy movements later on. Key sectors to watch include technology (semiconductors, AI), military industry, and high-growth areas in mid-year reports [2] - Another institution emphasized the importance of focusing on performance-driven sectors and stable assets as the earnings season approaches, with expected growth in industries such as steel, computers, and defense [2] Policy Developments - The National Healthcare Security Administration announced that a draft for the commercial insurance innovative drug directory and the medical insurance directory will be released soon. This initiative aims to streamline the application process for companies and ensure that both directories are aligned in their adjustments [4] - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission is accelerating the development of the new energy vehicle industry, focusing on enhancing the capabilities of young talents in intelligent development and digital marketing [5]

Group 1 - The macro background for the A-share adjustment in Q2 includes a natural decline in Chinese exports and increased tariff threats from the US, leading to amplified macroeconomic expectations and a decrease in risk appetite [1][2] - The direct reason for the short-term market adjustment is the approaching "April Decision" period, which includes the verification of annual and quarterly reports, as well as economic data from China and the implementation of US tariffs [1][2] - The adjustment pressure from the April verification period is considered limited, with expectations for domestic AI computing power to potentially show strong differentiation and growth [1][3] Group 2 - The macroeconomic issues persisting into Q2 include the natural decline in Chinese exports and the potential for further US tariff threats, which may lead to a weak and volatile A-share market [2][4] - The narrative of the current technology adjustment is similar to the Nasdaq adjustment from July to October 2023, characterized by slow application realization and concerns over excessive investment in computing power [2][3] - The adjustment in domestic AI computing power is seen as a shorter phase compared to the US, as the industry is still in a stage of basic breakthroughs with insufficient application layer development [3][4] Group 3 - Defensive thinking is favored in Q2 2025, with a focus on high dividend relative returns and the strengthening of pricing power for short-term allocation funds [4][5] - The technology structural bull market is expected to continue into 2025, with investment opportunities identified in domestic AI computing power and applications, embodied intelligence, and low-altitude economy [4][5] - The valuation advantage of Hong Kong stocks over A-shares is highlighted, particularly in the context of insurance capital's increasing influence on high dividend assets [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the upcoming "April Decision" as a critical period for economic and A-share performance verification, highlighting concerns over potential new tariffs from the U.S. and a cautious narrative surrounding AI advancements [1][2]. Short-term Adjustment Triggers - The "April Decision" window is approaching, with the first quarter reports for the economy and A-shares set to validate market fundamentals. China's export growth is expected to naturally decline, and the impact of tariffs has yet to be fully realized. The effectiveness of fiscal policies remains to be seen [2][3]. - Concerns are rising regarding the U.S. potentially imposing additional tariffs on China, which could exacerbate economic volatility and suppress risk appetite in the market [2][3]. - A temporary lull in AI advancements is noted, with cautious narratives emerging about the slow progress of large models and the lack of blockbuster applications. This has led to a phase of adjustment in the tech sector [2][3]. Key Influencing Factors of the "April Decision" - The performance verification period is crucial, with expectations for revenue and net profit improvements in the domestic AI computing power industry due to high capital expenditures from internet giants and operators. However, the market's pessimistic expectations for performance reports are unlikely to lead to significant adjustments [3][4]. - The anticipated economic verification in April is expected to have limited marginal impact on the market, as the current expectations for cyclical improvement are low [4]. - The release of a U.S. tariff report on April 1 and subsequent actions may limit the significance of the "bad news" effect, with ongoing concerns about potential tariff increases affecting market sentiment [4][5]. AI Industry Trends - The AI industry is seen as a process where large models and computing power mutually promote breakthroughs in applications. The current phase is characterized by waiting for blockbuster applications, with market adjustments expected to be limited in scope and duration [5][6]. - The market is currently focused on the potential for application innovations, with the possibility of new highs in technology following the realization of these applications [6][7]. Defensive Investment Strategy - In the second quarter of 2025, a defensive investment mindset is favored, with a focus on high-dividend assets that offer both absolute and relative returns. The technology sector is expected to maintain its upward trend, with continued interest in domestic AI computing power and applications, embodied intelligence, and low-altitude economy investment opportunities [6][7]. - The shift of Hong Kong stocks towards A-share characteristics is noted, with high-dividend stocks and internet companies in Hong Kong expected to perform well in their respective styles [7].