Report Information - Report Title: Treasury Bond Daily Report [1] - Date: December 23, 2025 [2] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term: Last week, the bond market recovered due to rising expectations of easing. However, this week, the disappointment of LPR cuts and the pending public fund new regulations have cooled the bullish sentiment in the bond market again. Coupled with the potential pressure of the stock market's Spring Festival rally on the bond market, there are many short - term negative factors for the bond market. But the cross - year capital situation is expected to remain loose, supporting the long - end. It is advisable to pay attention to the strategy of shorting the long - end and going long on the short - end to steepen the yield curve [11]. - Long - term: After continuous adjustments in the bond market, current interest rates have returned to reasonable pricing. The deviation from policy rates is narrowing, and the basis has rebounded above the historical center, indicating that the market is not pricing in next year's interest rate cuts, and futures have slightly over - adjusted compared to the spot market. With the weak economic fundamentals remaining unchanged, there is room for easing next year. When the expectation of easing rises at the beginning of next year, there is significant upside potential for long - end futures varieties [12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Situation on the Day**: LPR remained stable, the expectation of easing was dashed, and the strong performance of the A - share market suppressed the bond market, causing treasury bond futures to decline across the board [8]. - **Interest Rate Spot Bonds**: The yields of major term interest rate spot bonds in the inter - bank market rose across the board. The increase in the long - end active bonds was less than 1bp. As of 16:30 in the afternoon, the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond 250016 was reported at 1.8435%, up 0.85bp [9]. - **Funding Market**: The inter - bank funding market was loose, and cross - year funds were stable. There were 2509 billion yuan of maturities in the open market today, and the central bank injected 673 billion yuan, resulting in a net withdrawal of 1836 billion yuan. The decline of the inter - bank funding sentiment index indicated the relief of funding pressure. The overnight and 7 - day funding rates declined slightly. The 14 - day cross - year rate fluctuated narrowly around 1.6%, medium - and long - term funds were stable, and the 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit rate fluctuated between 1.64% and 1.66% [10]. 3.2 Industry News - **LPR**: The LPR quotation in December remained stable. The 1 - year LPR was 3.0% (the same as last time), and the 5 - year - plus LPR was 3.5% (the same as last time) [13]. - **国务院 Meeting**: The State Council executive meeting arranged the implementation of the decisions and arrangements of the Central Economic Work Conference, required to accelerate the formulation of specific implementation plans, and ensure a good start for the "15th Five - Year Plan". It also deployed a comprehensive solid waste treatment action and reviewed and approved the "Regulations for the Implementation of the Value - Added Tax Law of the People's Republic of China (Draft)" [13]. - **Automobile Market**: According to preliminary estimates by the Passenger Car Association, the total retail market of narrow - sense passenger cars in December is expected to be around 2.3 million units, a slight month - on - month increase of 3.4% and a year - on - year decrease of 12.7%. Among them, new energy vehicle retail sales can reach around 1.38 million units, with a penetration rate of 60% [13]. - **Local Bonds**: Jiangsu Province is expected to issue 105.6 billion yuan of local bonds in the first quarter of next year, including 70 billion yuan of new bonds and 35.6 billion yuan of refinancing bonds. As of December 19, 7 regions including Sichuan, Anhui, Jiangsu, Hebei, and Jilin have announced their local bond issuance plans for the first quarter of next year, with a total bond issuance scale of 657.712 billion yuan [13]. - **Real Estate**: The policy thinking of the real estate industry has changed from short - term "stopping the decline and stabilizing" to medium - and long - term "stabilizing the market". Some cities have shown a positive trend of stabilizing and improving. Relevant departments in Beijing, Nanjing, Shenzhen and other places have jointly rectified real estate accounts and self - media to strengthen industry management [14]. 3.3 Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures Market**: Includes information such as the trading data summary of treasury bond futures on December 22, the spread between main contracts of treasury bond futures across different terms and varieties, and the trend of main contracts [6][15][16]. - **Money Market**: Involves the changes in the weighted average interest rate of inter - bank pledged repurchase, the interest rate of pledged repurchase between banks and depositors, the term structure and trend of SHIBOR [26][31]. - **Derivatives Market**: Covers the Shibor3M interest rate swap fixing curve (mean) and the FR007 interest rate swap fixing curve (mean) [36].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the bond market is slightly bearish with a strong oscillatory nature [2][3] Core Viewpoints - The year - end capital market disturbances have emerged, with most money market interest rates rising. The marginal tightening of the capital market adds negative factors to the bond market [2] - The stock index may attempt to break through the trend line again, and the stock - bond seesaw effect may be negative for the bond market [2] - In November, China's economic prosperity level was generally stable, and the probability of large - scale stimulus policies at the end of the year is low. The economic fundamentals do not support the bond market to break through the oscillatory range [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review and Outlook - As of December 8, most money market interest rates rose, with the overnight silver - deposit pledged repurchase weighted average rate up 0.06BP to 1.3003%, the 7 - day rate up 0.04BP to 1.438%, the 14 - day rate up 2.68BP to 1.5116%, and the 1 - month rate up 2.4BP to 1.6158% [2] - The stock index may try to break through the trend line again, and the stock - bond seesaw effect may be negative for the bond market [2] 2. Macroeconomic Fundamentals - In November, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month; non - manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, down 0.6 percentage points; the composite PMI output index was 49.7%, down 0.3 percentage points. China's economic prosperity level was generally stable [3] - China's S&P composite PMI in November was 51.2 (previous value 51.8), and the S&P services PMI was 52.1 (previous value 52.6). The new order index continued to grow, and new export orders improved significantly [3] 3. Policy Aspect - The central bank achieved a net capital injection in November, with a net purchase of 500 million yuan of treasury bonds in the open market, a net injection of 254 million yuan through pledged supplementary loans, a net injection of 1.15 billion yuan through other structural monetary policy tools, and a net injection of 1 billion yuan through medium - term lending facilities [3] 4. Factors to Watch - The factors to watch include the stock - bond seesaw effect, economic data, and the tightness of the year - end capital market [4]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core View of the Report On December 4, 2025, Treasury bond futures opened lower with a gap and broke through key levels. The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year Treasury bond futures' main contracts declined by 1.04%, 0.35%, 0.24%, and 0.05% respectively. The report suggests a cautious wait - and - see approach [3]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs [Fundamental Tracking] - On December 4, the 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year Treasury bond futures' main contracts dropped by 1.04%, 0.35%, 0.24%, and 0.05% respectively [3]. - In the money market, overnight shibor was reported at 1.3020%, up 0.1bp from the previous trading day; 7 - day shibor was at 1.4240%, down 0.2bp; 14 - day shibor was at 1.4790%, up 1.4bp; 1 - month shibor remained flat at 1.5200% [3][4]. - The 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year active CTD bonds had IRRs of 1.66%, 1.91%, 1.95%, and 1.77% respectively, with R007 around 1.4837% [4]. - In the inter - bank pledged repo market on December 4, the total turnover was 2.8 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.77%. Overnight repo rate remained at 1.28%, 7 - day repo rate dropped 8bp to 1.40%, 14 - day repo rate dropped 3bp to 1.45%, and 1 - month repo rate rose 4bp to 1.64% [5]. - The Treasury bond yield curve showed mixed changes (2Y down 0.22BP to 1.41%; 5Y up 0.29BP to 1.62%; 10Y up 0.76BP to 1.85%; 30Y up 3.30BP to 2.24%). The credit bond yield curve also showed mixed changes (for AAA - rated medium - and short - term notes, 6M down 4.00BP to 1.63%; 1Y up 13.50BP to 1.74%; 3Y remained at 1.86%; 5Y up 13.75BP to 2.34%) [5]. [Macro and Industry News] The Politburo meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference are scheduled to be held in mid - and early December to plan the work for 2026 [8]. [Trend Intensity] The trend intensity of Treasury bond futures is 0 [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - On November 11th, the economic indicators may continue to decline, with the fundamentals under slight pressure, which supports the bond market. Currently, the liquidity gap is not large. The market has weak expectations for the actual scale of the central bank's bond - buying in the open market in November. Under the weak sentiment of the bond market, it is sensitive to news - related factors. In the short term, it may continue to fluctuate weakly, and still awaits the determination of the direction from uncertain factors such as the central bank's treasury bond trading scale in November and the new fund redemption rules [2] 3. Summary According to the Catalog Futures Market - **Futures Price and Volume**: T, TF, TS, and TL main - contract closing prices decreased by 0.07%, 0.06%, 0.02%, and 0.51% respectively; T, TF, TS main - contract volumes decreased by 6895, 353, and 214 respectively, while TL main - contract volume increased by 36154 [2] - **Futures Spreads**: Some spreads such as TL2603 - 2512, T03 - TL03 increased, while some like TF2603 - 2512, TF03 - T03 decreased [2] - **Futures Positions**: T main - contract position increased by 5501, TF and TS main - contract positions decreased by 330 and 224 respectively, and TL main - contract position decreased by 880. The net short positions of T, TF, and TS among the top 20 decreased, while that of TL increased [2] Bond Market - **CTD Bond Net Prices**: The net prices of some CTD bonds such as 250018.IB and 230014.IB increased, while those of 230012.IB and 210005.IB decreased [2] - **Active Bond Yields**: The yields of 3 - year active bonds increased by 1.00bp, while those of 5 - year, 7 - year, and 10 - year decreased by 1.00bp, 0.75bp, and 0.15bp respectively [2] Interest Rates - **Short - term Interest Rates**: The silver - pledged overnight rate increased by 2.93bp, the silver - pledged 7 - day rate increased by 4.00bp, and the silver - pledged 14 - day rate decreased by 3.00bp. Shibor overnight, 7 - day, and 14 - day rates decreased by 0.50bp, 2.00bp, and 1.20bp respectively [2] - **LPR Rates**: The 1 - year and 5 - year LPR rates remained unchanged [2] Open - Market Operations - The issuance scale of reverse - repurchase operations was 1563 billion, the maturity scale was 3021 billion, with an interest rate of 1.4% for 7 - day operations, and a net withdrawal of 1458 billion [2] Industry News - In November, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month; non - manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, down 0.6 percentage points; the comprehensive PMI output index was 49.7%, down 0.3 percentage points [2] - The National Development and Reform Commission encourages private investment and promotes its high - quality development [2] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission drafts a plan to launch a pilot program for commercial real - estate investment trust funds to promote the high - quality development of the REITs market [2] Key Events to Watch - On December 3rd at 16:30, listen to the speech of ECB President Lagarde; on December 5th at 23:00, pay attention to the US September core PCE price index [3]

Report Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints The bond market fluctuates between stable growth and easing expectations. Affected by the stock market and bond fund fee regulations, along with differences in the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and increased global trade uncertainties, the inflow of foreign capital is uncertain. Short - term attention should be paid to the policy signals at the end of the month [1][2][3]. Summary by Directory 1. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - **Price Indicators**: China's CPI (monthly) has a环比 of 0.20% and同比 of 0.20%; China's PPI (monthly) has a环比 of 0.10% and同比 of - 2.10% [9]. - **Monthly Economic Indicators**: Social financing scale is 437.72 trillion yuan, with a环比 increase of 0.64 trillion yuan and a环比 change rate of + 0.15%; M2同比 is 8.20%, down 0.20% with a环比 change rate of - 2.38%; Manufacturing PMI is 49.00%, down 0.80% with a环比 change rate of - 1.61% [10]. - **Daily Economic Indicators**: The US dollar index is 99.55, down 0.03 with a环比 change rate of - 0.03%; The US dollar against the offshore RMB is 7.0739, down 0.004 with a环比 change rate of - 0.05%; SHIBOR 7 - day is 1.43, down 0.03 with a环比 change rate of - 1.93%; DR007 is 1.45, down 0.03 with a环比 change rate of - 1.90%; R007 is 1.51, down 0.02 with a环比 change rate of - 1.24%; The 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) is 1.59, up 0.00 with a环比 change rate of + 0.21%; The AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) is 0.10, up 0.00 with a环比 change rate of + 0.21% [10]. 2. Overview of the Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market - **Closing Prices and Price Changes**: On November 27, 2025, the closing prices of TS, TF, T, and TL are 102.39 yuan, 105.77 yuan, 107.90 yuan, and 114.42 yuan respectively, with price changes of 0.01%, - 0.01%, - 0.06%, and - 0.01% respectively [3]. - **Net Basis Spreads**: The average net basis spreads of TS, TF, T, and TL are - 0.034 yuan, 0.037 yuan, - 0.046 yuan, and - 0.787 yuan respectively [3]. 3. Overview of the Money Market Funding Situation - **Fiscal Situation (2025 Jan - Oct)**: General public budget revenue has a year - on - year growth of 0.8%, with tax revenue improving for eight consecutive months, but non - tax revenue dragging down the overall growth rate. General public budget expenditure has a year - on - year increase of only 2%, slowing down for three consecutive months [2]. - **Financial Situation**: At the end of October, social financing and credit maintained low - level expansion, government bond issuance was still strong, and the financing demand of enterprises and residents was weak. M1 declined, and the M2 - M1 gap widened, indicating weak business vitality in the real economy [2]. - **Central Bank Operations**: On November 27, 2025, the central bank conducted a 356.4 billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation at a fixed interest rate of 1.4% [2]. - **Money Market Repo Rates**: The main term repo rates for 1D, 7D, 14D, and 1M are 1.314%, 1.425%, 1.508%, and 1.520% respectively, and the repo rates have recently declined [2]. 4. Spread Overview - **Inter - period Spreads and Cross - variety Spreads**: The report presents various inter - period spreads and cross - variety spreads of treasury bond futures, such as 4*TS - T, 2*TS - TF, etc [27][37][38]. 5. Two - year Treasury Bond Futures - **Implied Interest Rate and Yield**: Implied interest rate and treasury bond maturity yield of the two - year treasury bond futures main contract are presented, along with the IRR of the TS main contract and its relationship with the funding rate [36][39]. - **Basis and Net Basis Trends**: The three - year basis and net basis trends of the TS main contract are shown [47]. 6. Five - year Treasury Bond Futures - **Implied Interest Rate and Yield**: Implied interest rate and treasury bond maturity yield of the five - year treasury bond futures main contract are presented, along with the IRR of the TF main contract and its relationship with the funding rate [49]. - **Basis and Net Basis Trends**: The three - year basis and net basis trends of the TF main contract are shown [53]. 7. Ten - year Treasury Bond Futures - **Implied Yield and Yield**: Implied yield and treasury bond maturity yield of the ten - year treasury bond futures main contract are presented, along with the IRR of the T main contract and its relationship with the funding rate [56]. - **Basis and Net Basis Trends**: The three - year basis and net basis trends of the T main contract are shown [57]. 8. Thirty - year Treasury Bond Futures - **Implied Yield and Yield**: Implied yield and treasury bond maturity yield of the thirty - year treasury bond futures main contract are presented, along with the IRR of the TL main contract and its relationship with the funding rate [63]. - **Basis and Net Basis Trends**: The three - year basis and net basis trends of the TL main contract are shown [69]. Strategies - **Unilateral Strategy**: With the decline of repo rates and the fluctuation of treasury bond futures prices, a neutral stance is taken on 2603 [4]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Pay attention to the decline of the 2603 basis [4]. - **Hedging Strategy**: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - side investors can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints The bond market is oscillating between stable growth and easing expectations. Influenced by the stock market, along with differences in the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and increased global trade uncertainties, the inflow of foreign capital is uncertain. In the short term, attention should be paid to the policy signals at the end of the month [1][2][3]. Summary by Directory 1. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - **Price Indicators**: China's CPI (monthly) has a 0.20% month - on - month and year - on - year increase, while China's PPI (monthly) has a 0.10% month - on - month increase and a - 2.10% year - on - year decrease [9]. - **Monthly Economic Indicators**: Social financing scale is 437.72 trillion yuan, with a 0.64 trillion yuan increase and a 0.15% growth rate; M2 year - on - year is 8.20%, down 0.20% or - 2.38%; Manufacturing PMI is 49.00%, down 0.80% or - 1.61% [10]. - **Daily Economic Indicators**: The US dollar index is 99.58, down 0.23 or - 0.23%; The US dollar against the offshore RMB is 7.0775, down 0.017 or - 0.24%; SHIBOR 7 - day is 1.45, up 0.02 or + 1.40%; DR007 is 1.47, up 0.02 or + 1.40%; R007 is 1.51, down 0.02 or - 1.24%; The 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) is 1.58, with no change in value and a - 0.02% change rate; The AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) is 0.10, up 0.01 or - 0.02% [10]. 2. Overview of the Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market - **Closing Prices and Fluctuations**: On November 26, 2025, the closing prices of TS, TF, T, and TL were 102.37 yuan, 105.74 yuan, 107.85 yuan, and 114.29 yuan respectively, with fluctuations of - 0.05%, - 0.22%, - 0.36%, and - 0.86% [3]. - **Net Basis Spreads**: The average net basis spreads of TS, TF, T, and TL were - 0.027 yuan, 0.075 yuan, - 0.109 yuan, and 0.131 yuan respectively [3]. 3. Overview of the Money Market Funding Situation - **Fiscal Situation**: From January to October 2025, fiscal revenue showed a mild recovery, with general public budget revenue increasing by 0.8% year - on - year. Tax revenue improved for eight consecutive months, but non - tax revenue dragged down the overall growth rate. General public budget expenditure increased by only 2% year - on - year, slowing down for three consecutive months [2]. - **Financial Situation**: At the end of October, social financing and credit expanded at a low level, government bond issuance remained strong, and the financing demand of enterprises and residents was weak. M1 declined, and the M2 - M1 gap widened, indicating weak business vitality and a return from current to time deposits [2]. - **Central Bank Operations**: On November 26, 2025, the central bank conducted 213.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate of 1.4% [2]. - **Money Market Rates**: The main term repurchase rates of 1D, 7D, 14D, and 1M were 1.316%, 1.453%, 1.507%, and 1.519% respectively, and the repurchase rates have rebounded recently [2]. 4. Spread Overview The report provides multiple spread analysis charts, including the inter - term spread trends of various treasury bond futures varieties and the spread between spot bond term spreads and futures cross - variety spreads [29][36][39]. 5. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures The report presents charts on the implied interest rate of the two - year treasury bond futures main contract and the treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the TS main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TS main contract [38][42][50]. 6. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures Charts are provided on the implied interest rate of the five - year treasury bond futures main contract and the treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the TF main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TF main contract [52][56]. 7. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures The report includes charts on the implied yield of the ten - year treasury bond futures main contract and the treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the T main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the T main contract [59][60]. 8. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures Charts are presented on the implied yield of the thirty - year treasury bond futures main contract and the treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the TL main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TL main contract [66][73]. Strategies - **Unilateral Strategy**: As the repurchase rate falls and the treasury bond futures price oscillates, the 2603 strategy is neutral [4]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Pay attention to the decline of the 2603 basis [4]. - **Hedging Strategy**: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - side investors can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [4].

Report Information - Report Title: Treasury Bond Daily Report [1] - Date: November 27, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Research Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Domestic fundamentals have weakened marginally since mid - year, especially the accelerated decline in the investment sector, which still significantly drags down credit expansion. Monetary policy has started to send signals of easing, and bullish factors for the bond market are accumulating. However, it is difficult for easing to materialize in the short term, and the bond market is in a period of shock and energy accumulation. Attention should be paid to opportunities for bottom - up layout. In the short term, it mainly depends on the capital market and risk - aversion sentiment. After the tax period this week, the capital market may further loosen, which will support the bond market. Although the new regulations on fund sales fees bring uncertain disturbances, the impact is mainly short - term. The downward trend of interest rates remains and the adjustment risk is limited, and the impact from the sentiment side provides a good layout opportunity [11][12] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions a. Market Conditions - Rumors of new public fund regulations, bond fund redemptions leading to short - selling hedging, and the central bank's bond - buying scale being lower than expected, combined with the rebound of the A - share market, caused treasury bond futures to close sharply lower [8] - The yields of major inter - bank interest - bearing bonds across all maturities increased, with the long - end yields rising by about 2bp. As of 16:30, the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond 250016 was reported at 1.8375%, up 1.8bp [9] - The inter - bank capital market was loose, and it was expected to cross the month smoothly. There were 310.5 billion yuan of due funds in the open market, and the central bank injected 213.3 billion yuan, resulting in a net withdrawal of 9.72 billion yuan. The inter - bank capital sentiment index was stable, and the capital market was loosening. The weighted overnight interest rate of inter - bank deposits fell 0.5bp to 1.31%, the 7 - day interest rate rose 2bp to 1.47%, and the medium - and long - term capital was stable. The 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit rate fluctuated narrowly around 1.61% - 1.63% [10] b. Conclusion - Although bullish factors for the bond market are accumulating, it is difficult for easing to materialize in the short term, and the bond market is still in a shock and energy - accumulating period. Attention should be paid to bottom - up layout opportunities. In the short term, as it is in a data vacuum period and important meetings are approaching in December, the market's wait - and - see sentiment towards policies may be strong. After the tax period this week, the capital market may further loosen, which will support the bond market. The new regulations on fund sales fees bring short - term uncertain disturbances, but the downward trend of interest rates remains and the adjustment risk is limited. The impact from the sentiment side provides a good layout opportunity [11][12] 2. Industry News - On the evening of November 24, Chinese President Xi Jinping had a phone call with US President Trump. The two sides emphasized the importance of Sino - US cooperation and China's stance on the Taiwan issue [13] - Six departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the Implementation Plan for Enhancing the Adaptability of Consumer Goods Supply and Demand and Further Promoting Consumption, proposing to accelerate the layout of new fields and tracks, and carry out special activities for the innovation and application of typical cases in key industries [13] - The State Council Information Office will hold a regular policy briefing on November 27. Relevant officials will introduce policies and measures to enhance the adaptability of consumer goods supply and demand and further promote consumption [14] - US President Trump said that his team has made great progress in ending the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and a peace plan is being finalized. Ukrainian officials expect President Zelensky to visit the US in November [14] 3. Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures Market**: Data on trading of various treasury bond futures contracts on November 26, including opening price, closing price, settlement price, price change, trading volume, open interest, etc. are provided [6] - **Capital Market**: Information on the inter - bank capital market, including the net withdrawal of funds in the open market, changes in the weighted overnight and 7 - day interest rates of inter - bank deposits, and the stability of medium - and long - term capital [10] - **Derivatives Market**: Information on interest rate swap curves such as Shibor3M and FR007 is provided [36]

国债期货日报 2025/11/25 徐晨曦（投资咨询证号：Z0001908） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290 观点：关注央行政策态度 盘面点评： 周二期债主力合约除TS外全线收跌，日线上T、TF、TS维持震荡态势，TL延续跌势。资金面宽松，DR001在 1.32%附近。公开市场逆回购3021亿，续作MLF 10000亿，净回笼54亿。 重要资讯： 1.国家主席习近平同美国总统特朗普通电话，强调台湾回归中国是战后国际秩序重要组成部分。特朗普表示， 中国当年为二战胜利发挥了重要作用，美方理解台湾问题对于中国的重要性。 2.国新办将于周四上午10时举行国务院政策例行吹风会，请工业和信息化部副部长谢远生和国家发展改革 委、商务部、文化和旅游部、市场监管总局有关负责人介绍增强消费品供需适配性进一步促进消费政策措施 有关情况。 行情研判： 今日A股大幅反弹，债市受到一定影响。公开市场开展1万亿MLF，超额续作1000亿，中长期流动性投放较为 稳定，政策信号有限。短期市场缺乏驱动因素，交易情绪疲弱，TL已回补下方缺口，不排除T亦有回补缺口的 可能，多单可逢低布局。中期维持乐观，中期多单继续持有。 | | 2 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The central bank's restart of treasury bond trading operations is expected to inject stable liquidity into the market, significantly boosting bond market sentiment. The positive progress in China-US trade talks has alleviated the market disturbance caused by trade policy uncertainties. The continuous repair of the economic fundamentals and the implementation of loose fiscal policies still require a low - interest - rate environment. The market generally expects the central bank to purchase medium - and short - term treasury bonds, which may lead to a decline in short - term interest rates and potentially drive long - term interest rates down. However, the potential suppression of long - term interest rates due to the recovery of risk appetite should be watched out for. It is recommended to buy on dips with a light position and closely monitor the implementation progress and impact of the new fund fee regulations [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Data - **Futures Prices and Volumes**: T主力收盘价 rose 0.05% to 108.630 with a volume of 68,993 (down 22,365); TF主力收盘价 remained unchanged at 106.065 with a volume of 54,366 (down 44,952); TS主力收盘价 fell 0.01% to 102.554 with a volume of 33,991 (down 22,127); TL主力收盘价 rose 0.19% to 116.150 with a volume of 128,226 (up 2,790) [2]. - **Futures Spreads**: Most futures spreads decreased, such as TL2512 - 2603价差 down 0.04 to 0.27, T2512 - 2603价差 down 0.01 to 0.32 [2]. - **Futures Positions**: T主力持仓量 decreased by 1,169 to 245,110; TF主力持仓量 decreased; TS主力持仓量 increased by 2,319 to 73,541; TL主力持仓量 decreased by 1,963 to 144,078. The net short positions of T, TF, and TS had different changes [2]. 3.2 CTD and Active Bond Quotes - **CTD Net Prices**: Some CTD net prices increased, like 220017.IB rose 0.0639 to 106.7228, 250003.IB rose 0.0308 to 99.7127; some decreased, such as 220016.IB fell 0.0032 to 101.9375 [2]. - **Active Bond Yields**: Yields of 1 - 7Y active bonds decreased, with 1y down 4.00bp to 1.3900, 3y down 4.00bp to 1.4200, 5y down 2.50bp to 1.5350, 7y down 1.75bp to 1.6550; 10y remained unchanged at 1.8130 [2]. 3.3 Interest Rates - **Short - term Interest Rates**: Most short - term interest rates decreased, such as silver - pledged overnight down 4.26bp to 1.2974, Shibor overnight down 9.70bp to 1.3170, silver - pledged 7 - day down 2.00bp to 1.4800, Shibor 7 - day down 2.80bp to 1.4840 [2]. - **LPR Rates**: 1y and 5y LPR rates remained unchanged at 3.00% and 3.5% respectively [2]. 3.4 Open Market Operations - The issuance scale was 212.5 billion, the maturity scale was 342.6 billion, and the interest rate was 1.4% for 7 - day reverse repurchase operations [2]. 3.5 Industry News - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.75% - 4.00% and will end balance - sheet reduction on December 1st. - The US will cancel the 10% "fentanyl tariff" on Chinese goods, and both sides will make corresponding adjustments to trade - related measures in the new round of China - US trade consultations [2]. 3.6 Economic Situation - In China, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size in September continued to rise, with a year - on - year increase of 3.2%. The GDP in the third quarter increased by 4.8% year - on - year, with a stable but slightly slower growth rate. Industrial added value increased significantly in September, social retail sales growth slowed down, and fixed - asset investment continued to shrink [2]. - In the US, the September CPI was lower than expected, core inflation was stable, and the ADP data showed a recovery in the employment market in October [2].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent performance of various U.S. Treasury bond contracts, indicating a slight decline across different maturities, reflecting market sentiment and interest rate expectations [1]. Summary by Category Treasury Bond Performance - The 30-year main contract decreased by 0.29% [1] - The 10-year main contract fell by 0.08% [1] - The 5-year main contract dropped by 0.05% [1] - The 2-year main contract experienced a minimal decline of 0.01% [1]