文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人：付春生 （18482259975） 报告摘要 关税、减税以及移民政策可称为特朗普2.0任期的"三板斧"，市场对关税和减税政策更为熟悉，但对移民政 策了解相对较小。本篇周报简要梳理今年以来特朗普政府驱逐移民的进度以及美国社会对移民态度的变 化。 美国有多少非法移民？ 从两个角度估算，截至2024年底，美国非法移民人数约为1280-1520万人，假设非法移民的劳动参与率与所 有移民群体一致（2025年上半年为66.3%），则非法移民贡献了约850-1000万的劳动力。 今年以来驱逐了多少非法移民？ 特朗普承诺要实施美国史上最大规模的非法移民驱逐行动，但并未设定具体目标。并且美国移民和海关执 法局（ICE）驱逐出境的人数也不会定期公开发布。但综合现有信息来看，今年以来美国移民驱逐人数相比 存量规模很少。 第一，今年2月至6月，驱逐人数不到10万，不到存量非法移民的0.7-0.8% 。根据NBC新闻获取的ICE内部 数据，今年2-6月份，月度驱逐出境人数在1-2万左右，2、3、5月的驱逐人数不足1.5万。 第二，特 ...

宏观研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【每周经济观察】 未来一周关注美欧日 6 月制造业 PMI ——海外周报第 95 期 主要观点 ❖ 下周即将公布的海外重点经济数据 美国：6 月标普 PMI 初值（6/23），5 月成屋销量（6/23），6 月咨商局消费者 信心指数（6/24），5 月新屋销量（6/25），5 月耐用品订单初值（6/26），6 月密 歇根大学消费者信心指数和通胀预期终值（6/27）、5 月个人收入和支出（6/27）。 欧元区：6 月 PMI 初值（6/23），6 月消费者信心指数终值（6/27）。 日本：6 月 PMI 初值（6/23），6 月东京 CPI 数据（6/27），5 月失业率和求人 倍率（6/27），5 月零售销售（6/27）。 ❖ 本周海外重要经济数据和事件回顾 美国：1）美联储 6 月 FOMC 会议维持利率不变，符合预期。2）5 月零售销 售低于预期，环比-0.9%，预期-0.6%，前值从 0.1%下修至-0.1%，除汽车外的 零售销售环比-0.3%，预期 0.2%，前值从 0.1%下修至 0%。3）5 月工业产值低 于预期，环比-0.2%，预期 0%，前值从 0 上修至 0 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - On April 22, the yields of Treasury bond cash bonds strengthened, with the yields of 1 - 7Y maturities declining by about 0.5 - 1.5bp, and the yields of 10Y and 30Y maturities declining by about 1.5bp and 2.5bp to 1.64% and 1.87% respectively. Treasury bond futures closed higher across the board, with the TS, TF, T, and TL main contracts rising by 0.01%, 0.07%, 0.17%, and 0.50% respectively. The central bank conducted a net withdrawal, and the weighted average rate of DR007 fluctuated around 1.70%. - Domestically, in March, both the manufacturing and service industry PMIs were in the expansion range and increased month - on - month, indicating marginal improvement in the economy. The unemployment rate improved month - on - month, but price data remained weak, with CPI down 0.1% year - on - year and PPI down 2.5% year - on - year. Financial data slightly exceeded expectations, with government bonds supporting social financing, but the financing willingness of the private sector still needed to be boosted. With policy front - loading to boost domestic demand, economic data performed strongly, with retail sales, fixed - asset investment, and industrial added value slightly exceeding expectations. - Overseas, the US PMI in March declined slightly, and non - farm payrolls growth, CPI, PPI, and retail sales data all fell short of expectations. - In terms of strategy, the risk - aversion sentiment caused by tariff shocks has eased, and the focus of the bond market may return from short - term sentiment to domestic fundamental pressure. The need for stable growth supports the continued decline of the medium - and long - term interest rate center. The second quarter may be the window for monetary easing, and reserve requirement ratio cuts may take precedence over interest rate cuts. There is a greater divergence at the important interest rate level of 1.6% for the 10 - year bond. Under heavy selling pressure, bond futures fluctuated and declined, but still showed strength after the adjustment. Attention should be paid to whether the Politburo meeting at the end of the month releases incremental information. If the policy intensity fails to meet expectations, the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond may fluctuate and stabilize in the range of 1.65% - 1.75% in the short term and then continue to decline [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Futures Prices and Volumes**: On April 22, the closing prices of T, TF, TS, and TL main contracts were 108.970 (up 0.17%), 106.165 (up 0.07%), 102.402 (up 0.01%), and 119.920 (up 0.5%) respectively. The trading volumes of T, TF, TS, and TL main contracts were 41,633 (down 2,124), 33,835 (down 348), 23,837 (down 492), and 79,801 (down 333) respectively [2]. - **Futures Spreads**: The spreads of TL2509 - 2506, T2509 - 2506, TF2509 - 2506, and TS2509 - 2506 were 0.13 (up 0.01), 0.13 (down 0.02), 0.25 (up 0.02), and 0.21 (up 0.01) respectively. Other spreads such as T06 - TL06, TF06 - T06, etc., also showed certain changes [2]. - **Futures Positions**: The positions of T, TF, TS, and TL main contracts were 189,451 (up 4,438), 166,353 (up 1,274), 101,641 (down 1,350), and 110,368 (up 5,213) respectively. The net short positions of the top 20 in T, TF, TS, and TL also changed to different extents [2]. 3.2 Bond Market - **CTD Bonds**: The net prices of some CTD bonds such as 220003.IB, 240025.IB, etc., showed upward trends on April 22 [2]. - **Active Bond Yields**: The yields of 1y, 3y, 5y, 7y, and 10y active bonds were 1.4400% (up 1.00bp), 1.4900% (up 1.20bp), 1.5250% (up 2.25bp), 1.6100% (up 1.75bp), and 1.6630% (up 1.55bp) respectively [2]. 3.3 Interest Rates - **Short - term Interest Rates**: The silver - pledged overnight rate was 1.5997% (down 0.03bp), the Shibor overnight rate was 1.7090% (down 0.70bp), etc. The LPR rates of 1y and 5y remained unchanged at 3.10% and 3.6% respectively [2]. - **Open Market Operations**: The issuance scale of reverse repurchase operations was 220.5 billion yuan, the maturity scale was 164.5 billion yuan, and the interest rate was 1.5% for 7 days [2]. 3.4 Industry News - On April 22, the State Council Information Office held a press conference to introduce the "Work Plan for Accelerating the Comprehensive Pilot Program of Service Industry Opening - up". The pilot tasks will be implemented in all 11 pilot provinces and municipalities at once. Relevant work on cross - border trade and investment and financing facilitation will be carried out, the green finance policy toolkit will be optimized, etc. - On April 22, the State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council required central enterprises to take the initiative, strengthen fund planning, ensure timely payment, and support upstream and downstream enterprises in the industrial chain [2]. 3.5 Key Data to Watch - April 22, 22:00, Eurozone April consumer confidence index preliminary value - April 23, 21:45, US April S&P Global manufacturing PMI preliminary value - April 24, 01:00, US initial jobless claims for the week ended April 19 (in ten thousand people) - April 25, 22:00, US April University of Michigan consumer confidence index final value [3]