1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the bond futures in the macro and financial sector is "oscillation" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The bond futures prices mostly declined slightly on Monday, and the bond futures may oscillate in the short - term. The overall market situation shows a complex pattern with various factors influencing the market, including economic data, central bank operations, and geopolitical events [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Monday, the main contracts of bond futures opened roughly flat, with the 30 - year bond futures main contract TL2606 rising 0.07%, the 10 - year T2606 falling 0.09%, the 5 - year TF2606 falling 0.05%, and the 2 - year TS2606 falling 0.02% [1] - The Wande All - A index gapped down on Monday, oscillated downward throughout the day, closed with a medium - sized negative line, down 4.08%, and the trading volume was 2.45 trillion yuan, slightly higher than the previous trading day's 2.30 trillion yuan [2] Important Information - In the open market, the central bank conducted 800 million yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on Monday, with 13.73 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 12.93 billion yuan [1] - In the money market, the overnight interest rate in the inter - bank money market remained low on Monday. The weighted average of DR001 was 1.32% throughout the day, the same as the previous trading day; the weighted average of DR007 was 1.43%, up from 1.42% in the previous trading day [1] - In the cash bond market, the closing yields of inter - bank treasury bonds on Monday showed mixed changes compared with the previous trading day. The yield of 2 - year treasury bonds rose 0.76 BP to 1.32%, the 5 - year rose 0.95 BP to 1.57%, the 10 - year rose 0.17 BP to 1.83%, and the 30 - year fell 1.51 BP to 2.37% [1] - On March 23, the National Development and Reform Commission announced that domestic gasoline and diesel prices would be adjusted at 24:00. After the temporary regulatory measures, domestic gasoline and diesel prices (standard products) would be raised by about 0.87 yuan and 0.95 yuan per liter respectively, 0.85 yuan less per liter than without regulation [1] - Trump claimed to have had productive talks with Iran in the past two days and would suspend attacks on Iranian energy facilities for five days, but the Iranian side denied the negotiation [1] Market Logic - In the first two months of this year, the growth rates of fixed - asset investment, exports, and social retail sales exceeded market expectations, and the growth of industrial added value above the designated size also exceeded expectations. The service industry production index increased year - on - year compared with December last year [1] - The new - home sales area continued to decline significantly year - on - year in the first two months, and the second - hand housing prices continued to decline month - on - month. The real estate market is still in the process of bottom - seeking [2] - On March 18, the central bank's Party Committee expanded meeting pointed out that it would guide and regulate the interest rate level according to the changes in the economic and financial situation and the macro - economic operation to keep the comprehensive social financing cost at a low level [2] Trading Strategy - Traders are advised to conduct band operations [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - The recent treasury bond futures market is oscillating under the influence of multiple factors such as allocation demand, expectations of loose monetary policy, supply pressure from fiscal efforts, and profit - taking behavior of trading desks. The core contradiction in the market has shifted from a single long - driving force before the Spring Festival to a complex game between long and short factors [6]. - Before the policies of the Two Sessions are clear, the market may maintain a range - bound pattern. The rapid evolution of the Iran situation over the weekend will have limited further impact on boosting risk - aversion sentiment. The承接 strength of allocation desks and the emergence of incremental policy information will be the key to determining the direction. In the long - term, the bond market trend will depend on the sustainability of economic recovery, the actual strength of fiscal policy, and the future direction of monetary policy. If subsequent economic data (such as inflation) continues to rise and more regions can expand their balance sheets after debt resolution, the possibility of interest rates rising after reaching the bottom will increase [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views - This week, treasury bond futures showed a pattern of rising first and then falling, with overall oscillations. After the Spring Festival holiday, the market continued the pre - holiday warm trend, with all treasury bond futures contracts closing higher. However, the upward trend did not last. On February 26, market sentiment reversed, and all contracts of different maturities declined. The 30 - year main contract tumbled 0.53% to 112.09 yuan, and the 10 - year contract fell 0.10% to 108.37 yuan. By the last trading day of the week, the market stabilized. Except for the 30 - year contract, which slightly declined by 0.07%, the other contracts closed slightly higher [4]. - The early - week rise was mainly driven by bank allocation desks. The data shows that the liability side of the banking system is still abundant, and the lackluster "good start" of credit in January led surplus funds to turn to the bond market, forming the underlying logic of the "allocation bull". However, as the yield approached the lower limit of market expectations and the uncertainty brought by the approaching Two Sessions, the profit - taking sentiment of funds and securities firms significantly increased, becoming the main driving force for the mid - week market adjustment [4]. - The introduction of the Shanghai real - estate new policy ("Shanghai Seven - Point Plan") was interpreted by the market as a signal of the government's efforts to stabilize growth, which once triggered concerns in the bond market about economic recovery and rising risk appetite, posing a short - term negative impact. In addition, the performance of the equity market also affected bond market sentiment through the capital diversion effect. At the same time, the central bank's reduction of the foreign exchange risk reserve ratio for forward foreign exchange sales to ease the rapid appreciation of the RMB led to a decline in the RMB exchange rate. This operation was also partially interpreted by the market as being beneficial to alleviating the constraints of capital inflows on monetary policy, having a marginal boost to bond market sentiment [4]. 3.2 Liquidity Tracking - The report presents multiple aspects of liquidity data, including open - market operations (both in terms of volume and price), medium - term lending facility (MLF) (volume and price), various interest rates such as reverse repurchase rates, inter - bank bond repurchase rates, loan market quoted rates (LPR), and deposit reserve ratios. It also shows relevant data on the United States, such as US treasury bond yields and term spreads, through a series of charts [9][11][29][31] 3.3 Treasury Bond Futures Arbitrage Indicator Tracking - The report tracks various indicators of treasury bond futures, including basis, net basis, implied repo rate (IRR), and implicit interest rates for 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures, and presents the data through charts [41][44][46]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China has released data indicating significant growth in the bond market and futures trading for 2025, highlighting increased financing and participation from foreign institutions [1] Group 1: Bond Futures Market - In 2025, the transaction volume of the government bond futures market is projected to reach 97 trillion yuan, an increase of 43.9% compared to 2024 [1] - By the end of 2025, the open interest in government bond futures is expected to be 648,000 contracts, reflecting a 30.4% increase from the end of 2024 [1] - The closing price of the 10-year government bond futures main contract is anticipated to be 107.9 yuan, a decrease of 1.0% from the end of 2024 [1] Group 2: Bond Market Financing - In 2025, net financing for government bonds is projected to be 13.8 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.5 trillion yuan compared to 2024 [1] - Net financing for corporate bonds is expected to reach 2.4 trillion yuan, an increase of 482.3 billion yuan from 2024 [1] - By the end of 2025, the total custody balance in the bond market is forecasted to be 196.7 trillion yuan [1] Group 3: Foreign Participation - As of the end of 2025, the custody balance of foreign institutions in the Chinese bond market is expected to be 3.5 trillion yuan, accounting for 1.8% of the total custody balance [1] - In 2025, the cumulative issuance of Panda bonds is projected to be 183.06 billion yuan, with 56 new foreign institutions entering the interbank bond market [1]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China reports significant growth in the bond futures market and overall bond financing for 2025, indicating a robust outlook for the debt market in China [1] Group 1: Bond Futures Market - In 2025, the transaction volume of the government bond futures market is projected to reach 97.0 trillion yuan, an increase of 43.9% compared to 2024 [1] - By the end of 2025, the open interest in government bond futures is expected to be 64.8 million contracts, reflecting a 30.4% increase from the end of 2024 [1] - The closing price of the 10-year government bond futures main contract is anticipated to be 107.9 yuan, a decrease of 1.0% from the end of 2024 [1] Group 2: Bond Market Financing - In 2025, net financing for government bonds is projected to be 13.8 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.5 trillion yuan compared to 2024 [1] - Net financing for corporate bonds is expected to reach 2.4 trillion yuan, an increase of 482.3 billion yuan from 2024 [1] - By the end of 2025, the total custody balance in the bond market is forecasted to be 196.7 trillion yuan [1] Group 3: Foreign Participation - As of the end of 2025, the custody balance of foreign institutions in the Chinese bond market is expected to be 3.5 trillion yuan, accounting for 1.8% of the total custody balance [1] - In 2025, the cumulative issuance of Panda bonds is projected to be 183.06 billion yuan, with 56 new foreign institutions entering the interbank bond market [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - Although the change of the Federal Reserve Chairman has caused a huge shock in the market, its direct impact on the domestic bond market is relatively limited. The intensified volatility of the equity market may push the short - term risk preference to decline, reducing the capital diversion pressure on the bond market. Coupled with the fact that the PMI in January returned to the contraction range, indicating that the weak economic recovery trend continues. In the context of limited external shocks and the interweaving of internal sentiment and fundamentals, the bond market may return to a volatile pattern after a short - term recovery [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Disk - T主力收盘价108.260，环比上涨0.02%，成交量72474，环比减少6023；TF主力收盘价105.905，环比上涨0.06%，成交量60771，环比增加3421；TS主力收盘价102.414，环比上涨0.03%，成交量32791，环比减少883；TL主力收盘价111.960，环比下跌0.1%，成交量94907，环比减少21790 [2] 3.2 Futures Spread - TL2603 - 2606价差为 - 0.14，环比上涨0.00；T03 - TL03价差为 - 3.70，环比上涨0.11；T2603 - 2606价差为0.01，环比下跌0.03；TF03 - T03价差为 - 2.36，环比上涨0.03；TF2603 - 2606价差为 - 0.03，环比上涨0.01；TS03 - T03价差为 - 5.85，环比上涨0.01 [2] 3.3 Futures Position - T主力持仓量253976，环比下跌0.01；T前20名多头241088，环比下跌0.02；T前20名空头238457，环比增加1819；T前20名净空仓2219，环比增加2574；TF主力持仓量134147，环比增加3608；TF前20名多头142860，环比增加3929；TF前20名空头136970，环比增加5885；TF前20名净空仓 - 5890，环比减少1956；TS主力持仓量61998，环比减少1616；TS前20名多头59586，环比增加96；TS前20名空头52590，环比增加94；TS前20名净空仓 - 6996，环比增加2；TL主力持仓量127313，环比减少2868；TL前20名多头142289，环比增加839；TL前20名空头140314，环比减少2272；TL前20名净空仓 - 1975，环比增加3111 [2] 3.4 Top Two CTD (Net Price) - 250018.IB(6y）净价100.6082，环比上涨0.0216；250025.IB(6y）净价99.0955，环比上涨0.0323；250014.IB(4y）净价100.1151，环比上涨0.0173；240020.IB(4y)净价100.8844，环比上涨0.0205；250017.IB(2y)净价100.1168，环比上涨0.0239；240022.IB(2y)净价100.156，环比上涨0.0046；210005.IB(17y)净价126.3679，环比下跌0.1100；210014.IB(18y)净价123.215，环比下跌0.1100 [2] 3.5 Active Treasury Bonds - 1y收益率1.2950%，环比上涨0.50bp；3y收益率1.3950%，环比持平；5y收益率1.5725%，环比持平；7y收益率1.6875%，环比上涨1.05bp；10y收益率1.8100%，环比上涨0.90bp [2] 3.6 Short - term Interest Rates - 银质押隔夜利率1.3228%，环比下跌4.16bp；Shibor隔夜利率1.3170%，环比下跌4.80bp；银质押7天利率1.4833%，环比下跌0.59bp；Shibor7天利率1.4880%，环比上涨0.30bp；银质押14天利率1.5600%，环比上涨3.10bp；Shibor14天利率1.5110%，环比上涨0.20bp [2] 3.7 LPR Interest Rates - 1y LPR利率3.00%，环比持平；5y LPR利率3.5%，环比持平 [2] 3.8 Open Market Operations - 发行规模1055亿，到期规模4020亿，净回笼2965亿，利率1.4%，期限7天 [2] 3.9 Industry News - 商务部等九单位启动2026“乐购新春”春节特别活动，时间为2月15至23日；1月北京、上海二手房成交量同比增幅均超20%，深圳二手房成交环比增长16%，同比增长7%，杭州二手房成交环同比明显增长，重点城市新房市场表现相对平淡；中共中央、国务院批复同意《现代化首都都市圈空间协同规划（2023－2035年）》 [2] 3.10 Key Points of Attention - 2/2 23:00关注美国1月ISM制造业指数；2/5 21:15关注欧洲央行利率决议 [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the Treasury bond futures market is expected to continue the volatile pattern and it is difficult to form a unilateral trend. The current market has both long and short factors. On one hand, institutional allocation demand and the risk - hedging property of RMB assets support the market, especially for ultra - long - term varieties. On the other hand, stock market performance, policy expectations, and changes in supply - demand relations will jointly affect market fluctuations. In the medium - to - long - term, the bond market trend depends on the sustainability of economic recovery, the actual strength of fiscal policy, and the subsequent direction of monetary policy. If economic data such as inflation continues to pick up and more regions are able to expand their balance sheets after debt resolution, the possibility of interest rates rising after reaching the bottom will increase [4][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Viewpoints - Last week, the Treasury bond futures market showed differentiation between long and short ends. The ultra - long - end center slowly declined with the TL main contract down 0.34% for the week, the 10 - year main contract steadily rose slightly with a weekly gain of about 0.11%, and the medium - and short - term maturities changed little. Market fluctuations were mainly in equities and commodities. The turning point of risk assets on Friday was due to factors like the Iranian situation, new Fed candidates, US policy shutdown risk, and risks in the US stock market during the earnings season. Domestic bonds were less affected by other major asset classes. The central bank continuously released liquidity through reverse repurchase, with a total of 176.15 billion yuan in reverse repurchase operations for the week, achieving a net injection after offsetting maturities. The 7 - day reverse repurchase rate remained stable at 1.40%, and the weighted average DR007 rate fluctuated around the policy rate, keeping the funds reasonably abundant. The marginal weakness of the ultra - long end might be due to some long - position funds taking profits at the beginning of the week, causing the TL2603 contract to correct. However, the long - term allocation demand from the "good start" dividend - insurance sales of insurance institutions and the inflow of foreign risk - hedging funds supported the price to stabilize around 112 yuan [4] 3.2 Liquidity Tracking - The content mainly presents various charts related to liquidity, including open - market operations (volume and price), medium - term lending facilities (volume and price), deposit - based pledged repurchase, SHIBOR, Shanghai Stock Exchange pledged repurchase rate, bond - pledged repurchase rate, R007&DR007 spread and trading volume, inter - bank certificate of deposit issuance rate, excess reserve ratio, LPR, deposit reserve ratio, Treasury bond yields, Treasury bond term spreads, US Treasury bond yields, and US Treasury bond term spreads. But there is no specific text summary of these data [8][9][11] 3.3 Treasury Bond Futures Arbitrage Indicator Tracking - The content shows various indicators of Treasury bond futures arbitrage, including basis, net basis, implied repo rate (IRR), and implied interest rate for 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures contracts in the current quarter. But there is no specific text analysis of these indicators [38][41][48]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market sentiment has continued to improve as some negative factors have eased, but there is insufficient momentum for interest rates to continue to decline. In 2025, China's economic structural contradictions still need to be improved. In the next stage, facing significant external uncertainty pressure, the endogenous growth foundation of the economy needs to be further consolidated, and expanding domestic demand will become the policy focus. The issuance rhythm of interest - rate bonds in January was stable, alleviating market concerns about the supply pressure of long - term bonds. The large - scale net injection of MLF this month reduced the expected impact of a reserve requirement ratio cut within the first quarter. It is expected that interest rates will fluctuate within a narrow range in the short term, and the market is still waiting for new incremental information for directional selection [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Data - **Futures Closing Prices and Volume**: T主力收盘价108.250，涨幅0.06%，成交量83851，环比减少3528；TF主力收盘价105.875，涨幅0.01%，成交量61278，环比增加5250；TS主力收盘价102.394，涨幅0%，成交量27838，环比减少1924；TL主力收盘价112.170，涨幅0.07%，成交量83695，环比增加24158 [2]. - **Futures Spreads**: TL2603 - 2606价差 - 0.11，环比增加0.03；T2603 - 2606价差0.02，环比减少0.00；TF2603 - 2606价差 - 0.04，环比增加0.01；TS2603 - 2606价差 - 0.03，环比减少0.01；T03 - TL03价差 - 3.91，环比减少0.02；TF03 - T03价差 - 2.35，环比减少0.01；TS03 - T03价差 - 5.80，环比增加0.02；TS03 - TF03价差 - 3.45，环比增加0.02 [2]. - **Futures Positions**: T主力持仓量258604，环比增加11014；T前20名多头233281，环比增加8343；T前20名空头258196，环比增加14561；T前20名净空仓2219，环比增加2574；TF主力持仓量139222，环比减少1616；TF前20名多头141955，环比增加797；TF前20名空头160116，环比增加3319；TF前20名净空仓18161，环比增加2522；TS主力持仓量66047，环比减少1389；TS前20名多头53408，环比减少887；TS前20名空头60400，环比减少1424；TS前20名净空仓6992，环比减少537；TL主力持仓量136394，环比增加1416；TL前20名多头143176，环比增加2093；TL前20名空头150891，环比增加2477；TL前20名净空仓7715，环比增加384 [2]. 3.2 Bond Market Data - **CTD Bond Net Prices**: 250018.IB(6y）净价100.5813，涨幅0.0655；250025.IB(6y）净价99.0955，涨幅0；230014.IB(4y）净价104.7437，跌幅0.0109；240020.IB(4y)净价100.8844，涨幅0.0406；250017.IB(2y)净价100.0936，涨幅0.0079；220022.IB(2y)净价101.9589，涨幅0.0012；210005.IB(17y)净价126.7644，涨幅0.1635；210014.IB(18y)净价123.4442，涨幅0.1083 [2]. - **Active Bond Yields**: 1y国债活跃券收益率1.2950，涨幅0.25bp；3y国债活跃券收益率1.4100，跌幅1.00bp；5y国债活跃券收益率1.5700，跌幅1.25bp；7y国债活跃券收益率1.6860，跌幅1.30bp；10y国债活跃券收益率1.8075，跌幅1.55bp [2]. 3.3 Interest Rate Data - **Short - term Interest Rates**: 银质押隔夜利率1.3135，跌幅4.98bp；Shibor隔夜利率1.3680，涨幅0.20bp；银质押7天利率1.5726，涨幅2.29bp；Shibor7天利率1.5720，涨幅4.50bp；银质押14天利率1.5900，跌幅0.69bp；Shibor14天利率1.5910，跌幅0.50bp [2]. - **LPR Interest Rates**: 1y LPR利率3.00，涨幅0.00bp；5y LPR利率3.5，涨幅0.00bp [2]. 3.4 Public Market Operations - 发行规模3540亿和1438亿，到期规模2102亿，利率1.4%，期限7天 [2]. 3.5 Industry News - **Energy Industry**: By the end of 2025, the cumulative installed power generation capacity in China was 3.89 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 16.1%. Among them, the installed capacity of solar power generation was 1.2 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 35.4%; the installed capacity of wind power was 0.64 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 22.9%. In 2025, the cumulative average utilization hours of power generation equipment of power plants with a capacity of 6,000 kilowatts and above in China was 3,119 hours, a decrease of 312 hours compared with the same period of the previous year [2]. - **Real Estate Industry**: At the end of the fourth quarter of 2025, the balance of RMB real estate loans was 51.95 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.6%, with a decrease of 963.6 billion yuan for the whole year. At the end of the fourth quarter of 2025, the balance of real estate development loans was 13.16 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 3.0%, with a decrease of 357.5 billion yuan for the whole year. The balance of personal housing loans was 37.01 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.8%, with a decrease of 676.8 billion yuan for the whole year [3]. - **Federal Reserve**: The Federal Reserve maintained the benchmark interest rate at 3.50% - 3.75% unchanged, pausing after three consecutive 25 - basis - point interest rate cuts, which was in line with market expectations. Fed Chair candidate Waller supported a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut, consistent with the stance of Trump - "appointed" director Milan. The Federal Reserve stated in its statement that the unemployment rate had shown initial signs of stabilization, inflation was still at a relatively high level, and the uncertainty of the economic outlook remained high. Fed Chair Powell said at a press conference that raising interest rates was not anyone's basic assumption for the next step, and he did not believe that the Federal Reserve would lose its independence and would advise the next Fed Chair to stay away from politics [3]. 3.6 Market Performance and Outlook - **Market Performance**: On Thursday, the yields of treasury bond cash bonds were strong in the short - term and weak in the medium - and long - term. The yields to maturity of 1 - 3Y bonds decreased by about 0.5 - 1.0bp, and the yields to maturity of 10Y and 30Y bonds increased by about 0.35 and 0.50bp respectively to 1.82% and 2.25%. On Thursday, treasury bond futures strengthened collectively. The main contracts of TS, TF, T, and TL rose by 0.01%, 0.01%, 0.06%, and 0.07% respectively. The weighted average interest rate of DR007 rebounded to around 1.59% [4]. - **Domestic Fundamentals**: In the fourth quarter of 2025, China's GDP increased by 4.5% year - on - year, and the annual GDP growth rate reached 5.0%, successfully achieving the expected growth target. In December, industrial added value was higher than market expectations, the scale of fixed - asset investment continued to shrink, and social retail sales were lower than the previous value. The financial data in December exceeded expectations, the growth rate of social financing continued to decline, and government bonds caused a large drag; credit increased slightly less, the marginal demand for medium - and long - term corporate financing improved, but the trend of household de - leveraging continued, and credit performance remained weak. The profits of industrial enterprises above the designated size in China in December increased by 5.3% year - on - year, and the annual profits achieved positive growth, reversing the three - year downward trend [4]. - **Overseas Situation**: The Federal Reserve maintained the benchmark interest rate unchanged in January, in line with market expectations, and stated in its statement that current inflation was still high, employment growth was sluggish, but concerns about the downward risk of the labor force were alleviated [4]. 3.7 Key Points to Watch - 1/29 21:30 US initial jobless claims for the week ending January 24 - 1/30 18:00 Eurozone's preliminary GDP for the fourth quarter of 2025 and December unemployment rate [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the treasury bond futures is "volatile" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - Treasury bond futures are expected to be volatile in the short - term, and the impact of the stock index should be continuously monitored. Traders are advised to conduct band - trading operations [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Friday, most of the main contracts of treasury bond futures opened lower, rose unilaterally in the morning session, and fluctuated narrowly horizontally in the afternoon. As of the close, the 30 - year treasury bond futures main contract TL2603 fell 0.09%, the 10 - year T2603 rose 0.01%, the 5 - year TF2603 rose 0.05%, and the 2 - year TS2603 rose 0.03% [1] - On Friday, the Wande A - share index opened slightly higher, then fell back to the previous closing level and fluctuated narrowly until the close. It closed down 0.17% from the previous trading day, forming a small negative line. The trading volume was 3.06 trillion yuan, slightly higher than the previous trading day's 2.94 trillion yuan [2] 3.2 Important Information - Open market: On Friday, the central bank conducted 86.7 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 34 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, resulting in a net injection of 52.7 billion yuan [1] - Money market: On Friday, short - term interest rates in the inter - bank money market declined. The weighted average of DR001 was 1.32% for the whole day, compared with 1.37% in the previous trading day; the weighted average of DR007 was 1.44% for the whole day, compared with 1.50% in the previous trading day [1] - Cash bond market: On Friday, the closing yields of inter - bank treasury bonds declined compared with the previous trading day. The yield to maturity of 2 - year treasury bonds fell 1.98 basis points to 1.40%, the 5 - year fell 1.81 basis points to 1.61%, the 10 - year fell 1.20 basis points to 1.84%, and the 30 - year fell 0.22 basis points to 2.30% [1] - On January 16, the State Council executive meeting pointed out that it is necessary to implement a special action to boost consumption, release the integrated effect of policies, combine people's livelihood improvement and consumption promotion, enhance residents' endogenous consumption power, and play the fundamental role of consumption in driving economic growth. It also mentioned accelerating the cultivation of new growth points in service consumption, supporting new business forms, models and scenarios, increasing the supply of high - quality services, and improving the long - term mechanism for promoting consumption [1] 3.3 Market Logic - In December, the social financing scale increased by 2.2075 trillion yuan, with a market expectation of 1.8 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 646.2 billion yuan. The RMB loans in the credit caliber increased by 910 billion yuan, with a market expectation of 680 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 80 billion yuan. Both the social financing and credit data in December were better than market expectations [1][2] - At the end of December, M2 increased by 8.5% year - on - year, with a market expectation of 7.9%; M1 increased by 3.8% year - on - year, in line with market expectations. China's export amount in December denominated in US dollars increased by 6.6% year - on - year, better than the estimated 2.2%. China's CPI and core CPI both rose 0.2% month - on - month in December, and PPI rose 0.2% month - on - month, indicating a mild recovery in inflation [1][2] - The central bank announced that starting from January 19, 2026, it will lower the re - loan and rediscount rates by 0.25 percentage points, and stated that there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts throughout the year [2] 3.4 Trading Strategy - Traders are advised to conduct band - trading operations [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On December 26, 2025, the treasury bond futures market declined across the board, showing a pattern of long - term weakness and short - term stability. The 30 - year main contract (TL2603) led the decline, hitting the largest single - day decline since December 18. The 10 - year (T2603), 5 - year (TF2603), and 2 - year (TS2603) contracts fell slightly, with limited short - end declines supported by loose liquidity. The total market turnover was 281.724 billion yuan, and the 30 - year contract turnover was 107.144 billion yuan, accounting for 38% of the total market, indicating that the ultra - long end remained the core of capital game [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract Price**: On December 26, 2025, the ten - year treasury bond (T2603) futures contract opened lower at 108.200 yuan, showed a volatile trend during the day, with an intraday low of 108.195 yuan. The daily K - line closed positive, with a trading volume of 67,379 lots and an open interest of 253,517 lots [2]. - **Variety Price**: Among the 12 treasury bond futures contracts, the prices of the two - year treasury bond contracts (TS2603, TS2606, TS2609) showed a pattern of near - term low and long - term high; the prices of the five - year treasury bond contracts (TF2603, TF2606, TF2609) showed a pattern of near - term high and long - term low; the prices of the ten - year treasury bond contracts (T2603, T2606, T2609) showed a long - term low pattern; the prices of the thirty - year treasury bond contracts (TL2603, TL2606, TL2609) showed a near - term low pattern. The open interest of the ten - year treasury bond (T2603) contract was the highest among all contracts [3][5]. 3.2 Spot Market - On December 26, 2025, the People's Bank of China conducted 93 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate of 1.40% through quantity tender. The maturity amount was 56.2 billion yuan, resulting in a net injection of 36.8 billion yuan [6]. 3.3 Related Information - Technical Analysis - For the ten - year treasury bond (T2603) futures contract, the daily K - line closed positive, with an intraday high of 108.330 yuan. The MACD indicator continued to run with a golden cross near the zero - axis, and the trading volume was greater than the previous day [9].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the bond futures in the macro and financial sector is "oscillating slightly bullish" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The latest macro - economic data shows that stabilizing growth remains the main theme of the Q4 macro - economy. With the central bank's monetary policy adjustment and the continuous loosening of funds near the end of the year, bond futures may oscillate slightly up in the short - term [2] 3. Summary by Related Contents 3.1 Market Performance - On Wednesday, most of the main contracts of bond futures opened slightly lower and fluctuated narrowly horizontally throughout the day. The 30 - year bond futures main contract TL2603 rose 0.02%, the 10 - year T2603 rose 0.02%, the 5 - year TF2603 fell 0.01%, and the 2 - year TS2603 remained flat [1] - On Wednesday, the Wande All - A Index opened roughly flat, fluctuated horizontally throughout the day, rose slightly in the morning session, continued to rise slightly in the afternoon session and then moved sideways, closing with a small positive line, up 0.89% from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 1.90 trillion yuan, showing little change from the previous trading day's 1.92 trillion yuan [2] 3.2 Important Information - **Open Market Operations**: On Wednesday, the central bank conducted 260 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 468 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, resulting in a net withdrawal of 208 billion yuan [1] - **Money Market**: On Wednesday, the overnight interest rate in the inter - bank money market remained low. The weighted average of DR001 was 1.26% throughout the day (1.27% in the previous trading day), and the weighted average of DR007 was 1.38% (1.41% in the previous trading day) [1] - **Cash Bond Market**: On Wednesday, the closing yields of inter - bank treasury bonds fluctuated narrowly compared with the previous trading day. The yield to maturity of the 2 - year treasury bond dropped 1.01 BP to 1.34%, the 5 - year rose 0.34 BP to 1.60%, the 10 - year rose 0.04 BP to 1.84%, and the 30 - year dropped 0.30 BP to 2.22% [1] - **Real Estate Policy**: On December 24th, four departments in Beijing jointly issued a notice to optimize and adjust real - estate policies, aiming to stabilize market expectations and stimulate reasonable housing demand [1] - **Monetary Policy Meeting**: The central bank's Monetary Policy Committee's Q4 2025 meeting stated that China's economy is generally stable with progress, but still faces challenges such as a prominent supply - demand imbalance. It is necessary to continue implementing a moderately loose monetary policy, strengthen counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical adjustments, and maintain ample liquidity [1][2] - **MLF Operations**: On December 25th, the central bank will conduct 400 billion yuan of 1 - year MLF operations. With 300 billion yuan of MLF maturing in December, there will be a net injection of 100 billion yuan, marking the 10th consecutive month of increased MLF roll - overs. In addition, the central bank has also made a net injection of 200 billion yuan through outright reverse repurchases in December, resulting in a net injection of 300 billion yuan of medium - term liquidity in December [2] - **US Unemployment Data**: The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week was 214,000, lower than the forecast of 223,500. The number of continuing jobless claims in the week ending December 13th was 1.923 million, higher than the forecast of 1.9 million [2] 3.3 Market Logic - In November, fixed - asset investment decreased by 2.6% year - on - year, and social retail sales increased by 1.3% year - on - year, both lower than market expectations. The export growth rate in November was 5.9%, exceeding market expectations. China's CPI and core CPI both dropped 0.1% month - on - month in November, while PPI rose 0.1% month - on - month, indicating a moderate inflation level [2] 3.4 Trading Strategy - For trading - type investors, it is recommended to conduct band operations [2]