Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View - In June 2025, the two - year, five - year, ten - year, and thirty - year Treasury bond futures' main contracts had capital inflows, and the monthly K - lines closed positive. The conflict between Israel and Iran on June 13 and the cease - fire on June 24, along with the central bank's reverse repurchase operations releasing liquidity, provided support for the bond market, showing strong market sentiment [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market Analysis - The two - year Treasury bond futures' main contract closed at 102.498 yuan this month, up 0.10% from last month, with lower trading volume than the previous month and the MACD having a death cross above the zero - axis [8]. - The five - year Treasury bond futures' main contract closed at 106.160 yuan this month, up 0.13% from last month, with the monthly K - line closing positive [10]. - The thirty - year Treasury bond futures' main contract closed at 120.42 yuan this month, up 0.85% from last month, with the monthly K - line closing positive, leaving an upper shadow, and approaching the previous high of 122.28 yuan. The trading volume was less than the previous month, and the MACD continued to converge in a death cross above the zero - axis [15]. 3.2 Spot Market Analysis - On June 19, the central bank conducted 2035 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate of 1.40% [15]. - The overnight Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (Shibor) dropped 0.3 basis points to 1.366%, and the 7 - day Shibor dropped 0.3 basis points to 1.505% [15]. - On June 24, the central bank conducted 4065 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 2092 billion yuan [15]. 3.3 Futures - Spot Combination Analysis - Liquidity support: The central bank's net investment of funds through reverse repurchase maintained abundant inter - bank liquidity, providing short - term support for the bond market. On June 26, the central bank conducted 5093 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 3058 billion yuan after deducting the maturing funds [16]. - Geopolitical risk disturbance: The Israel - Iran conflict on June 13 boosted risk - aversion sentiment, causing funds to flow to safe assets like Treasury bonds, especially long - term varieties. The cease - fire was announced on June 24 [17]. 3.4 Outlook for the Future - In June, the main contracts of Treasury bond futures rose, which was related to the market traders' enthusiasm and the geopolitical risks. The central bank's reverse repurchase operations released a signal of loose liquidity in the inter - bank market, and it is uncertain whether it will continuously support market liquidity [18]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View - The bond market has been oscillating strongly recently due to loose expectations, with interest rates remaining at a low level. Profit - taking selling may drive short - term interest rates to rise slightly. As the main trading line in the market is unclear due to policy uncertainties in the second half of the year, it is recommended to wait for the market to stabilize before making band allocations [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Disk - T, TF, TS, TL main contract closing prices decreased by 0.01%, 0%, 0.01%, 0.04% respectively; T, TS trading volumes decreased by 425 and 1470 respectively, while TF and TL trading volumes increased by 179 and 647 respectively [2]. 3.2 Futures Spreads - TL2512 - 2509, T2512 - 2509, TF2512 - 2509, TS2512 - 2509 spreads changed by - 0.03, + 0.02, + 0.00, - 0.00 respectively; T09 - TL09, TF09 - T09, TS09 - T09, TS09 - TF09 spreads changed by + 0.03, - 0.00, - 0.02, - 0.01 respectively [2]. 3.3 Futures Positions - T, TF, TS, TL main contract positions changed by - 131, - 3090, + 509, + 110 respectively; T, TF, TS, TL top 20 long positions changed by + 6074, + 3199, - 4278, + 4521 respectively; T, TF, TS, TL top 20 short positions changed by + 7100, + 4843, + 174, + 6212 respectively; T, TF, TS, TL top 20 net short positions changed by + 1026, + 1644, + 4452, + 1691 respectively [2]. 3.4 Top Two CTD - Net prices of some CTD bonds such as 250007.IB, 220010.IB, 240020.IB decreased, while 210014.IB increased [2]. 3.5 Active Treasury Bonds - Yields of 1y, 7y, 10y active treasury bonds decreased by 0.90bp, 0.30bp, 0.25bp respectively, while 3y, 5y yields increased by 0.40bp, 0.20bp respectively [2]. 3.6 Short - term Interest Rates - Silver - pledged overnight, 7 - day, 14 - day interest rates increased by 3.12bp, 5.00bp, 5.00bp respectively; Shibor overnight, 7 - day, 14 - day interest rates decreased by 0.10bp, 3.20bp, 0.60bp respectively [2]. 3.7 LPR Rates - 1y and 5y LPR rates remained unchanged [2]. 3.8 Open Market Operations - The issuance scale was 220.5 billion yuan, the maturity scale was 242 billion yuan, and the interest rate was 1.4% for 7 - day reverse repurchase, with a net回笼 of 21.5 billion yuan [2]. 3.9 Industry News - The 12th meeting of the Standing Committee of the 14th National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference opened on June 23; June LPR quotes remained unchanged; from January to May, national general public budget expenditures increased by 4.2% year - on - year, while revenues decreased by 0.3% year - on - year [2]. 3.10 Market Situation - Domestic: 5 - month economic data was weak, financial data was divided, and exports declined slightly. Overseas: US economic activity slowed down significantly in May, the labor market cooled, and the Fed may cut interest rates twice in the second half of the year [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - On June 10, Treasury bond futures closed higher, with TS, TF, T, and TL main contracts rising 0.01%, 0.01%, 0.01%, and 0.08% respectively. The central bank conducted a net withdrawal, and the weighted average rate of DR007 fell back to around 1.51%. The domestic economic data in May was weak, which may support the bond market. The short - term interest rate is expected to drive the long - term interest rate down slightly, but further monetary policy easing is needed to break through the previous low. It is expected that the main contracts of bond futures will show a relatively strong oscillating trend this week, and investors are advised to maintain a certain position [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Futures Closing Price and Volume**: T main contract closed at 108.995, up 0.01%; TF at 106.135, up 0.01%; TS at 102.442, unchanged; TL at 120.160, up 0.07%. The trading volumes of T, TF, TS, and TL main contracts decreased by 12,693, 2,506, 10,233, and 12,885 respectively [2] - **Futures Spreads**: Some spreads such as TL2509 - 2506, T2509 - 2506, etc. showed different changes, with some rising and some falling [2] - **Futures Positions**: The main contract positions of T, TF, TS, and TL all decreased. Among the top 20 long and short positions, the long positions of T, TF, TS, and TL increased by 2,515, 987, 901, and 2,815 respectively, and the short positions increased by 3,790, - 61, 673, and 2,349 respectively [2] 3.2 CTD and Active Bonds - **CTD Net Price**: Some CTD bonds' net prices had changes, such as 2500802.IB rising 0.2982, while 240020.IB falling 0.0007 and 0.0111 respectively [2] - **Active Bond Yields**: The yields of 1 - year, 3 - year, 5 - year, 7 - year, and 10 - year active bonds changed by 0, 0.75bp, 0.46bp, - 0.25bp, and 0.35bp respectively [2] 3.3 Interest Rates - **Short - term Interest Rates**: The silver - pledged overnight rate rose 4.05bp to 1.3705%, and the 7 - day rate rose 10bp to 1.5500%. Shibor overnight fell 1.6bp to 1.3620%, and Shibor 7 - day fell 0.1bp to 1.4960% [2] - **LPR Rates**: The 1 - year and 5 - year LPR rates remained unchanged at 3.00% and 3.5% respectively [2] 3.4 Open Market Operations - The central bank's open - market operation had an issuance scale of 198.6 billion yuan, a maturity scale of 454.5 billion yuan, and a net withdrawal of 255.9 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.4% for 7 days [2] 3.5 Industry News - On June 10, the Ministry of Finance is actively involved in improving the "one old and one young" service system. The human resources and social security department will study and formulate insurance - participation policies for specific groups [2] 3.6 Key Data to Watch - On June 11 at 20:30, the US May unadjusted CPI annual rate; on June 12 at 20:30, the US initial jobless claims for the week ending June 7 [3]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - On June 9, 2025, the yield of treasury bond spot bonds showed mixed trends, with the 5Y and 10Y maturity yields rising by 0.45 and 0.1bp respectively, while the 2Y, 7Y, and 30Y yields falling by about 0.2 - 0.6bp. Treasury bond futures closed higher across the board, with the TS, TF, T, and TL main contracts rising by 0.01%, 0.01%, 0.09%, and 0.35% respectively [2]. - The negative impact of the unexpected outcome of the China - US tariff negotiations on the bond market has been largely digested, and the market has returned to being driven by the capital and fundamental aspects. Recently, the central bank conducted a 1 - trillion - yuan outright reverse repurchase operation, releasing medium - term liquidity into the market and sending a signal of easing. Short - term interest rates are expected to remain low, and long - term interest rates may decline slightly, but further incremental easing signals from monetary policy are still awaited [2]. - In this period, the main contracts of treasury bond futures are expected to show a moderately strong and volatile trend. Investors are advised to maintain a certain position [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market Data - **Closing Prices and Volumes**: The T main contract closed at 109.000, up 0.09%, with a trading volume of 60,635 (an increase of 6,372). The TF main contract closed at 106.125, unchanged, with a volume of 50,459 (an increase of 1,281). The TS main contract closed at 102.448, unchanged, with a volume of 35,286 (an increase of 410). The TL main contract closed at 120.140, up 0.35%, with a volume of 75,638 (an increase of 5,369) [2]. - **Futures Spreads**: For example, the TL2509 - 2506 spread was 0.75, up 0.01; the T2509 - 2506 spread was 0.20, down 0.01; etc [2]. - **Futures Positions**: The T main contract's open interest was 182,042, down 1,633. The net short position of the top 20 traders increased by 61. Similar data is available for TF, TS, and TL contracts [2]. 2. CTD and Active Bond Data - **CTD Bonds**: The net prices of some CTD bonds such as 2500802.IB (6y) and 220010.IB (6y) showed increases [2]. - **Active Bonds**: The yields of active treasury bonds with different maturities decreased, e.g., the 1 - year yield was 1.4100%, down 2.50bp; the 10 - year yield was 1.6525%, down 1.50bp [2]. 3. Interest Rate Data - **Short - term Interest Rates**: The silver - pledged overnight rate was 1.3620%, down 2.80bp; the Shibor overnight rate was 1.3780%, down 3.30bp. The 1 - year LPR was 3.00%, unchanged; the 5 - year LPR was 3.5%, unchanged [2]. 4. Open Market Operations - The central bank conducted a reverse repurchase operation with an issuance scale of 173.8 billion yuan, a maturity scale of 0, and an interest rate of 1.4% for 7 days [2]. 5. Industry News - **Price Data**: In May 2025, the national CPI decreased by 0.1% year - on - year, and the PPI decreased by 3.3% year - on - year and 0.4% month - on - month [2]. - **Trade Data**: In the first five months of 2025, China's total goods trade import and export value was 17.94 trillion yuan, up 2.5% year - on - year. In May, exports (in US dollars) increased by 4.8% year - on - year, and imports decreased by 3.4% [2]. 6. Key Events to Watch - On June 10 at 14:00, the UK's May unemployment rate will be released; on June 11 at 20:30, the US's May unadjusted CPI annual rate will be released [3].

Report Information - Report Title: Treasury Bond Futures Daily Report 2025/6/5 [1] - Researcher: Liao Hongbin, Futures Practitioner Qualification Number F30825507, Futures Investment Consulting Practitioner Certificate Number Z0020723 [3] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - On Thursday, the yields of treasury bond cash bonds were short - strong and long - weak. The yields of 1 - 7Y maturities declined by about 0.35 - 2bp, while the yields of 10Y and 30Y maturities rose by about 0.7bp to 1.68% and 1.90% respectively. Treasury bond futures also showed a short - strong and long - weak pattern, with TS and TF rising by 0.04% and 0.02% respectively, and T and TL contracts falling by 0.01% and 0.16% respectively. The central bank continued to conduct net withdrawals, and the weighted average rate of DR007 fluctuated around 1.55%. Domestically, the manufacturing PMI in May stopped falling and rebounded, and the service PMI remained in the expansion range. With the suspension of high tariffs between China and the US in May, industrial activities improved marginally, and the economy stabilized. Overseas, the growth momentum in the US weakened, with the ISM manufacturing and service PMIs in May falling more than expected and below the boom - bust line, and the growth of ADP employment in May slowing significantly. The market's expectation of the Fed's first interest rate cut may be adjusted to September. The negative impact on the bond market caused by the unexpected outcome of the China - US tariff negotiations has been basically digested. The bond market is driven by the capital and fundamental aspects, and there are no clear positive or negative factors in the short term. It is expected that the bond market will continue to fluctuate and consolidate. Attention should be paid to subsequent high - frequency economic data and capital changes [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market - **Futures Prices and Volumes**: T主力收盘价108.720, down 0.01%; TF主力收盘价106.030, up 0.02%; TS主力收盘价102.430, up 0.04%; TL主力收盘价119.310, down 0.16%. T主力成交量64481, up 8772; TF主力成交量73198, up 27197; TS主力成交量49003, up 17801; TL主力成交量66642, down 3618 [2]. - **Futures Spreads**: TL2509 - 2506价差0.59, down 0.16; T2509 - 2506价差0.17, down 0.08; TF2509 - 2506价差0.28, down 0.00; TS2509 - 2506价差0.14, down 0.00; T06 - TL06价差 - 10.17, up 0.13; TF06 - T06价差 - 2.80, down 0.03; TS06 - T06价差 - 6.26, up 0.01; TS06 - TF06价差 - 3.46, up 0.04 [2]. - **Futures Positions**: T主力持仓量169240, down 405; TF主力持仓量144273, down 872; TS主力持仓量116473, down 726; TL主力持仓量93443, down 14. T前20名多头165766, down 1024; T前20名空头166255, down 963; T前20名净空仓489, up 61; TF前20名多头133649, up 3149; TF前20名空头152140, up 5592; TF前20名净空仓18491, up 2443; TS前20名多头88090, up 2; TS前20名空头104205, up 1211; TS前20名净空仓16115, up 1209; TL前20名多头88807, up 739; TL前20名空头94156, down 292; TL前20名净空仓5349, down 1031 [2]. 2. Bond Market - **CTD Bonds**: The net prices of some CTD bonds changed, such as 2500802.IB(6y) rising 0.0002 to 99.4137, 250007.IB(6y) rising 0.0161 to 99.0955, etc [2]. - **Active Bonds**: The yields of 1y, 3y, 5y, 7y, 10y active bonds decreased by 1.00bp, 1.75bp, 1.90bp, 0.90bp, 0.50bp respectively, reaching 1.4525%, 1.4700%, 1.5260%, 1.6210%, 1.6710% [2]. 3. Interest Rates - **Short - term Interest Rates**: The silver - pledged overnight rate decreased by 1.84bp to 1.4016%, Shibor overnight remained unchanged at 1.4080%; the silver - pledged 7 - day rate increased by 6.46bp to 1.5646%, Shibor 7 - day decreased by 0.90bp to 1.5340%; the silver - pledged 14 - day rate increased by 0.92bp to 1.5892%, Shibor 14 - day increased by 1.50bp to 1.5910% [2]. - **LPR Rates**: The 1y and 5y LPR rates remained unchanged at 3.00% and 3.5% respectively [2]. 4. Open Market Operations - The central bank conducted reverse - repurchase operations with a issuance scale of 1265 billion, a maturity scale of 2660 billion, a net withdrawal of 1395 billion, and an interest rate of 1.4% for 7 - day operations [2]. 5. Industry News - In May, the Caixin China Services PMI was 51.1, up 0.4 percentage points from April, indicating an accelerated expansion of service - sector operations. New service orders increased, the employment index reached a six - month high, and market confidence improved slightly, but costs and selling prices moved in opposite directions, putting pressure on corporate profits [2]. - The chief lawyer of the CSRC stated that the CSRC will fully implement the new development concept, deepen the reform of the science - finance system and mechanism in the capital market, give full play to the functions of the multi - tiered capital market, promote the in - depth integration of technological innovation and industrial innovation, strengthen the protection of the legitimate rights and interests of investors, especially small and medium - sized investors, and support the development of technological innovation and new - quality productivity [2]. - The US accused China of violating the consensus of the China - US Geneva economic and trade talks. The Chinese Ministry of Commerce spokesperson refuted this, stating that China is firm in safeguarding its rights and honest in implementing the consensus. The US has unilaterally provoked new economic and trade frictions, increasing the uncertainty and instability of bilateral economic and trade relations. China firmly rejects the US's unfounded accusations and urges the US to correct its wrong actions [2]. 6. Key Data to Watch - On June 5, at 20:15, the ECB will announce its interest - rate decision; at 20:30, the number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending May 31 will be released. On June 6, at 20:30, the US unemployment rate and seasonally - adjusted non - farm payrolls for May will be announced [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - The negative impact on the bond market caused by the unexpected outcome of the China-US tariff negotiations has basically been digested. The bond market is now driven by the capital and fundamental aspects. In the short term, there are no clear positive or negative factors, so the bond market is expected to continue its volatile consolidation pattern. Attention should be paid to subsequent high-frequency economic data and capital flow changes. Given the recent significant underperformance of short-term bond futures compared to long-term ones, there may be no high - quality short - term trading opportunities, and the risk of a correction in long - term bonds due to short - term spread adjustments should be watched out for [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Conditions - **Futures Closing Prices and Volumes**: T, TF, and TS main contracts closed down 0.03%, 0.04%, and 0.04% respectively, while the TL main contract closed up 0.03%. T, TF, and TL main contract volumes decreased by 19,601, 7,839, and 10,208 respectively, and the TS main contract volume increased by 2,847 [2] - **Futures Spreads**: Some spreads showed upward or downward trends, such as the TL2509 - 2506 spread increasing by 0.08 and the T2509 - 2506 spread decreasing by 0.01 [2] - **Futures Positions**: T, TF, TS, and TL main contract positions decreased by 2,657, 1,366, 2,271, and 611 respectively. The net short positions of T, TF, and TL decreased, while that of TS increased [2] 3.2 Bond Information - **CTD Bond Net Prices**: Some CTD bond net prices rose and some fell, for example, 240020.IB (4y) rose by 0.1243 and 250007.IB (6y) fell by 0.0644 [2] - **Active Bond Yields**: Yields of 1y, 3y, 5y, 7y, and 10y active bonds decreased by 2.00bp, 3.00bp, 1.75bp, 2.00bp, and 1.25bp respectively [2] 3.3 Interest Rates - **Short - term Interest Rates**: Silver - pledged overnight, 7 - day, and 14 - day rates decreased by 14.56bp, 17.00bp, and 13.00bp respectively. Shibor overnight, 7 - day, and 14 - day rates decreased by 6.10bp, 10.20bp, and 16.00bp respectively [2] - **LPR Rates**: 1y and 5y LPR rates remained unchanged [2] 3.4 Open Market Operations - The issuance scale of open - market operations was 454.5 billion yuan, the maturity scale was 830 billion yuan, and the net回笼 was 375.5 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.4% for 7 days [2] 3.5 Industry News - In May, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month; non - manufacturing PMI was 50.3%, down 0.1 percentage point; and comprehensive PMI was 50.4%, up 0.2 percentage points [2] - The US accused China of violating the consensus of the Geneva economic and trade talks, and China firmly rejected the unreasonable accusation, urging the US to correct its wrong actions [2] - In May, the central bank conducted 700 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 200 billion yuan [2] 3.6 Key Data to Watch - June 4th, 20:15: US May ADP employment (in ten thousand people) - June 4th, 22:00: US May ISM non - manufacturing PMI - June 5th, 20:15: European Central Bank's interest rate decision - June 5th, 20:30: US initial jobless claims for the week ending May 31st (in ten thousand people) [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for Treasury bonds is "Oscillation" [4] Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, the Treasury bond futures market lacks factors to break the current situation, and the market sentiment is weak. The bond market is expected to continue its narrow - range oscillation, with short - selling pressure slightly stronger at times. However, the valuation of Treasury bond futures is approaching a reasonable level, and the risk of a sharp decline is low. It is recommended to consider buying on dips. In the long - term, the bond market is bullish, and the yield curve is expected to steepen, but the process will be tortuous. The opportunity for futures cash - and - carry arbitrage is decreasing [2][14][16] Summary by Directory 1. One - Week Review and Views 1.1 This Week's Trend Review - From May 26 to June 1, Treasury bond futures oscillated downward. On Monday, with calm news and balanced funds, futures opened higher but weakened in the afternoon. On Tuesday, the selling force was slightly stronger, leading to an oscillating decline. On Wednesday, futures oscillated narrowly, and the spot - bond interest rate rose slightly due to high insurance redemptions of bond funds. On Thursday, futures dropped significantly after the US court's ruling on Trump's "reciprocal tariffs," but the spot - bond interest rate declined slightly after the market closed. On Friday, futures had an island reversal as the US appellate court approved a stay of the trade - court order. As of May 30, the settlement prices of the 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures contracts were 102.398, 106.005, 108.715, and 119.410 yuan, down 0.004, 0.040, 0.140, and 0.190 yuan from the previous weekend [1][13] 1.2 Next Week's View - The May official manufacturing PMI met expectations and had limited impact. The market will focus on the capital and certificate - of - deposit (CD) rates. Although the risk of a significant increase in these rates is low, market sentiment is weak, and concerns about CD price hikes need time to ease. The Treasury bond futures market will continue to oscillate narrowly, with short - selling pressure stronger at times. It is recommended to buy on dips [2][14][16] 2. Weekly Observation of Interest - Bearing Bonds 2.1 Primary Market - This week, 61 interest - bearing bonds were issued, with a total issuance of 394.212 billion yuan and a net financing of 267.382 billion yuan, down 574.110 billion and 280.697 billion yuan from last week. 39 local government bonds were issued, with a total issuance of 228.212 billion yuan and a net financing of 137.382 billion yuan, down 20.310 billion and 5.207 billion yuan. 347 CDs were issued, with a total issuance of 669.5 billion yuan and a net financing of 1.677 billion yuan, down 4.394 billion and up 4.167 billion yuan [19][21][22] 2.2 Secondary Market - Treasury bond yields showed a differentiated trend. As of May 30, the yields of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bonds were 1.46%, 1.55%, 1.68%, and 1.90%, changing - 0.70, + 1.62, - 4.20, and + 1.00 basis points from the previous weekend. The 10Y - 1Y and 10Y - 5Y spreads narrowed by 5.71 and 5.82 basis points to 21.55 and 12.78 basis points, while the 30Y - 10Y spread widened by 5.20 basis points to 22.18 basis points. The yields of 1 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year policy - bank bonds were 1.55%, 1.62%, and 1.71%, up 4.37, 2.01, and 0.36 basis points [26][27] 3. Treasury Bond Futures 3.1 Price, Trading Volume, and Open Interest - Treasury bond futures declined. As of May 30, the settlement prices of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year futures contracts were 102.398, 106.005, 108.715, and 119.410 yuan, down 0.004, 0.040, 0.140, and 0.190 yuan. The trading volumes of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year futures were 36,744, 60,618, 73,230, and 81,786 lots, down 12,434, 12,367, 26,624, and 12,186 lots. The open interests were 121,931, 166,043, 207,541, and 124,113 lots, down 3,482, 4,634, 10,880, and 2,668 lots [36][39] 3.2 Basis and Implied Repo Rate (IRR) - The opportunity for cash - and - carry arbitrage continued to decline. The market was weak this week, and the basis rose slightly due to news such as the ban on tariff policies. Looking ahead, the cash - and - carry arbitrage opportunity will disappear, and the basis will return to normal [43] 3.3 Inter - Delivery and Inter - Variety Spreads - As of May 24, the inter - delivery spreads of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures contracts between 2506 and 2509 were - 0.170, - 0.290, - 0.220, and - 0.670 yuan, changing - 0.014, + 0.010, + 0.060, and + 0.010 yuan from the previous weekend [47] 4. Weekly Observation of the Capital Market - The central bank's net reverse - repurchase injection was 65.66 billion yuan this week. In May, the central bank conducted 70 billion yuan in outright reverse - repurchases, with a net withdrawal of 20 billion yuan. As of May 30, R007, DR007, SHIBOR overnight, and SHIBOR 1 - week were 1.70%, 1.66%, 1.47%, and 1.62%, up 7.06, 7.85, - 9.40, and 6.50 basis points. The average daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase was 6.50 trillion yuan, down 0.22 trillion yuan from last week, and the overnight proportion was 83.88%, lower than last week [50][52][57] 5. Weekly Overseas Observation - The US dollar index strengthened slightly, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield declined. As of May 30, the US dollar index rose 0.32% to 99.4393, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.41%, down 10 basis points. The 10 - year China - US Treasury yield spread was inverted by 273.4 basis points [61][62] 6. Weekly Observation of High - Frequency Inflation Data - Industrial product prices fell this week. As of May 30, the Nanhua Industrial Product Index, Metal Index, and Energy and Chemical Index were 3383.03, 6023.71, and 1558.33 points, down 69.18, 100.59, and 37.32 points. Agricultural product prices showed a mixed trend. The prices of pork, 28 key vegetables, and 7 key fruits were 20.66, 4.33, and 7.84 yuan/kg, down 0.29, up 0.06, and down 0.03 yuan/kg [63][65] 7. Investment Suggestion - It is recommended to buy on dips [66]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Thursday saw a collective decline in the yields of treasury bond cash bonds, with the yields of 1 - 7Y maturities rising by about 1.75 - 2.75bp, and the yields of 10Y and 30Y maturities rising by about 1.40bp to 1.70% and 1.94% respectively. Treasury bond futures closed down across the board, with the TS, TF, T, and TL main contracts slightly falling by 0.06%, 0.15%, 0.26%, and 0.65% respectively. The central bank continued net injections, and the weighted average rate of DR007 rebounded to around 1.64%. Domestically, the economic data in April was stable, with retail sales slightly declining, fixed - asset investment shrinking, industrial growth slightly exceeding expectations, and the unemployment rate improving month - on - month. The profit growth rate of industrial enterprises above designated size continued to recover, but low prices still suppressed profits. Financial data was divided, with government bonds supporting social financing, but weak credit due to real - estate cooling, end - of - quarter bank impulse, and trade - friction - induced risk - aversion sentiment. Core inflation improved, but industrial price data was still weak due to international commodities. The expected increase in tariff friction led to an unexpected rebound in exports, and there were continuous expectations of intensified fiscal and monetary policies for stable growth. Overseas, the US S&P Global Composite PMI and consumer confidence index in May rebounded unexpectedly, and the number of unemployment benefit claims declined continuously. However, the actual US tariff rate remained at a historical high, and the Fed's May meeting minutes showed a cautious attitude towards monetary policy, with the rate - cut timing possibly postponed to July. In terms of strategy, there may still be expectations of a long - term bull market for bonds, but in the short term, due to the阶段性 results of Sino - US tariff negotiations and the exhaustion of rate - cut and reserve - requirement - ratio - cut benefits, market risk - aversion sentiment has significantly cooled, and the bond market has weakened. Given the significant short - end underperformance compared to the long - end recently, there may be no good short - term trading opportunities, and attention should be paid to the risk of long - end catch - up decline due to short - term spread correction [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Disk - T main contract: The closing price was 108.475, down 0.26%; the trading volume was 72,334, an increase of 22,505 [2]. - TF main contract: The closing price was 105.870, down 0.15%; the trading volume was 57,177, an increase of 12,439 [2]. - TS main contract: The closing price was 102.346, down 0.06%; the trading volume was 32,722, an increase of 5,637 [2]. - TL main contract: The closing price was 118.690, down 0.65%; the trading volume was 94,531, an increase of 33,864 [2]. 3.2 Futures Spreads - TL2509 - 2506 spread was 0.68, down 0.10; T06 - TL06 spread was - 9.76, up 0.39 [2]. - T2509 - 2506 spread was 0.22, down 0.04; TF06 - T06 spread was - 2.69, up 0.07 [2]. - TF2509 - 2506 spread was 0.30, unchanged; TS06 - T06 spread was - 6.07, up 0.18 [2]. - TS2509 - 2506 spread was 0.17, down 0.02; TS06 - TF06 spread was - 3.39, up 0.11 [2]. 3.3 Futures Positions - T main contract: The open interest was 166,334, down 24,473; the long positions of the top 20 were 163,702, down 16,357; the short positions of the top 20 were 166,204, down 19,797; the net short positions of the top 20 were 2,502, down 3,440 [2]. - TF main contract: The open interest was 138,906, down 13,370; the long positions of the top 20 were 130,021, down 4,663; the short positions of the top 20 were 143,527, down 6,523; the net short positions of the top 20 were 13,506, down 1,860 [2]. - TS main contract: The open interest was 110,993, down 10,251; the long positions of the top 20 were 88,534, up 2,364; the short positions of the top 20 were 101,879, down 4,215; the net short positions of the top 20 were 13,345, down 6,579 [2]. - TL main contract: The open interest was 95,648, down 18,295; the long positions of the top 20 were 89,398, down 10,631; the short positions of the top 20 were 93,471, down 7,129; the net short positions of the top 20 were 4,073, up 3,502 [2]. 3.4 Top Two CTD (Clean Prices) - 250007.IB (6y): The price was 100.862, down 0.2098; 220017.IB (6y): The price was 99.0955, down 0.1698 [2]. - 240020.IB (4y): The price was 100.7533, down 0.1486; 240020.IB (4y): The price was 100.8844, down 0.1221 [2]. - 250006.IB (1.7y): The price was 100.1695, down 0.0399; 240010.IB (1.9y): The price was 100.6711, down 0.0396 [2]. - 210005.IB (18y): The price was 134.4848, down 0.6714; 210014.IB (18y): The price was 130.8879, down 0.4259 [2]. 3.5 Active Treasury Bonds - 1 - year yield: 1.4600%, down 0.25bp; 3 - year yield: 1.4980%, up 0.30bp [2]. - 5 - year yield: 1.5400%, up 0.75bp; 7 - year yield: 1.6275%, up 0.65bp [2]. - 10 - year yield: 1.7050%, up 0.75bp [2]. 3.6 Short - term Interest Rates - Overnight silver - pledged repo rate: 1.4187%, up 6.87bp; Shibor overnight: 1.4110%, unchanged [2]. - 7 - day silver - pledged repo rate: 1.6450%, up 14.50bp; Shibor 7 - day: 1.6020%, up 2.40bp [2]. - 14 - day silver - pledged repo rate: 1.7363%, up 5.63bp; Shibor 14 - day: 1.7440%, up 7.50bp [2]. 3.7 LPR Rates - 1 - year LPR: 3.00%, unchanged; 5 - year LPR: 3.5%, unchanged [2]. 3.8 Open - market Operations - The issuance scale was 266 billion yuan, the maturity scale was 154.5 billion yuan, and the interest rate was 1.4% for 7 - day reverse repos, with a net injection of 111.5 billion yuan [2]. 3.9 Industry News - The Ministry of Finance will issue 12.5 billion yuan of RMB treasury bonds in Hong Kong on June 4, including 3.5 billion yuan of 2 - year, 3 billion yuan of 3 - year, 3 billion yuan of 5 - year, and 3 billion yuan of 10 - year bonds [2]. - Since the Sino - US Geneva economic and trade talks, the two sides have maintained communication on economic and trade concerns at multiple levels. China has repeatedly negotiated with the US regarding its abuse of export - control measures in the semiconductor field and urged the US to correct its wrong practices [2]. - On May 28 (local time), the US International Trade Court ruled that Trump's imposition of comprehensive tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act was an over - stepping of authority, and the Trump administration filed an appeal [2]. 3.10 Key Points of Attention - On May 30 at 20:30, the US April core PCE price index annual rate will be released. - On May 30 at 22:00, the final value of the US May University of Michigan consumer confidence index will be released [3].

Group 1: Report General Information - Industry: Treasury Bonds [1] - Date: May 28, 2025 [2] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Group 2: Market Data - **Treasury Futures Trading Data on May 27**: TL2506 settled at 118.700, down 0.300 (-0.25%); TL2509 at 119.450, down 0.310 (-0.26%); etc. [6] Group 3: Market Analysis 1. Market Conditions and Recommendations - **Market Conditions**: Funds not substantially loosened, market sentiment weak, treasury futures down slightly. Bank - interbank major term spot bond yields mostly up slightly, 10 - year bond 250004 yield at 1.6975%, up 0.75bp. Central bank net - injected funds, money market loose [8][9][10] - **Conclusion**: April economic data weakened marginally but showed resilience, tariff issues in buffer period, short - term fundamentals stable, policy in observation period. Bond market in narrow - range oscillation, short - term may perform better considering post - peak supply of government bonds and stable funds [11] 2. Industry News - 1 - 4 months, national industrial enterprises' profit 2117.02 billion yuan, up 1.4% year - on - year [12] - Foreign Ministry responded to "China debt responsibility theory" [12] - 2025 Lujiazui Forum to be held on June 18 - 19 [12] - Some provinces strengthen management of special bond funds [13] - Most banks' large - value certificate of deposit rates decline [13] - Many wealth management companies cut fees [13] - CFFEX to enrich treasury futures market participants [13] 3. Data Overview - **Treasury Futures**: Covers futures contracts' spreads and trends [14][15][18][20][24] - **Money Market**: Includes SHIBOR and bank - interbank repurchase rates [27][31] - **Derivatives Market**: Involves Shibor3M and FR007 interest rate swap curves [33]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Tuesday saw a collective decline in the yields of treasury bond cash bonds, with the yields of 1 - 7Y maturities rising by about 0.5 - 1.05bp, and the yields of 10Y and 30Y maturities rising by about 0.50 and 0.45bp to 1.70% and 1.91% respectively. Treasury bond futures closed lower across the board, with the TS, TF, T, and TL main contracts slightly down by 0.02%, 0.03%, 0.11%, and 0.26% respectively. The central bank continued net injections, and the weighted average rate of DR007 dropped to around 1.62%. [2] - Domestically, economic data in April was stable, with retail sales slightly falling, fixed - asset investment shrinking, and industrial growth slightly exceeding expectations, and the unemployment rate improving month - on - month. Financial data was divided, with government bonds supporting social financing, but weak credit due to real estate cooling, end - of - quarter bank impulse, and trade friction. Core inflation improved, but industrial price data was still weak due to international commodities. Exports rebounded unexpectedly due to the export - rush effect under the expectation of tariff friction escalation, and there was a continuous increase in the expectation of fiscal and monetary policies for stable growth. [2] - Overseas, the US S&P Global Composite PMI in May rebounded unexpectedly, and the number of unemployment benefit applicants declined continuously. However, the actual US tariff rate remained at a historical high, and with the recent wavering of US - EU tariff policies, the market was still worried about US inflation, and the Fed's interest - rate cut might be postponed to July. [2] - In terms of strategy, there may still be expectations for a long - term bull market in bonds, but in the short term, due to the phased results of China - US tariff negotiations and the exhaustion of the benefits of interest - rate and reserve - requirement ratio cuts, market risk - aversion sentiment cooled significantly, and the bond market weakened in a volatile manner. Given the significant differentiation in the market, there may be no high - quality short - term trading opportunities, and attention should be paid to the risk of a decline in long - term bonds due to short - term spread correction. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Futures Prices and Volumes**: The closing prices of T, TF, TS, and TL main contracts were 108.735 (-0.11%), 106.030 (-0.03%), 102.408 (-0.02%), and 119.460 (-0.26%) respectively. The trading volumes of T, TF, TS, and TL main contracts were 6265 (up), - 4465 (down), 901 (up), and 3614 (up) respectively. [2] - **Futures Spreads**: All spreads between different contracts of T, TF, TS, and TL showed a downward trend in the change of the spread value, while the spreads between different - maturity contracts such as T06 - TL06, TF06 - T06, etc. showed an upward trend. [2] - **Futures Positions**: The main contract positions of T, TF, TS, and TL all decreased, and the net short positions of T, TS, and TL showed an upward or downward trend, while the net short position of TF decreased. [2] 3.2 Bond Market - **CTD Bonds**: The net prices of some CTD bonds showed an upward or downward trend, such as 250007.IB (down 0.0775) and 2500802.IB (up 0.0001). [2] - **Active Treasury Bonds**: The yields of 1 - year and 7 - year active treasury bonds increased, while the yield of 3 - year bonds decreased, and the yields of 5 - year and 10 - year bonds remained unchanged. [2] 3.3 Interest Rates - **Short - term Interest Rates**: The silver - pledged overnight rate increased by 1.44bp, the Shibor overnight rate decreased by 5.40bp, the silver - pledged 7 - day rate increased by 8.83bp, the Shibor 7 - day rate increased by 1.90bp, the silver - pledged 14 - day rate decreased by 4.00bp, and the Shibor 14 - day rate decreased by 2.10bp. [2] - **LPR Rates**: The 1 - year and 5 - year LPR rates remained unchanged. [2] 3.4 Open Market Operations - The issuance scale of open - market operations was 448 billion yuan, the maturity scale was 357 billion yuan, and the interest rate was 1.4% for 7 - day operations, with a net injection of 9.1 billion yuan. [2] 3.5 Industry News - Moody's maintained China's sovereign credit rating at "A1" with a negative outlook. The Chinese Ministry of Finance believed that this was a positive reflection of China's economic prospects. [2] - The CPC Central Committee General Office and the State Council General Office issued the "Opinions on Improving the Modern Enterprise System with Chinese Characteristics", which proposed measures such as improving the enterprise income distribution system and promoting long - term incentives for listed companies. [2] 3.6 Key Data to Watch - On May 28 at 22:00, the US Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for May will be released. - On May 29 at 02:00, the Fed will release the minutes of its May monetary policy meeting. - On May 29 at 20:30, the number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending May 24 will be announced. [3]