证券研究报告 | 2026年02月03日 宏观经济深度报告 有形之手（1）：财政 ABC 之"四本账" 本报告是"有形之手"系列研究的第一篇，聚焦财政"四本账"，系统梳理 其运行框架、收支规律及内在关联。 我国财政预算体系核心可以概括为"四横五纵"。即横向的"四本账"与纵 向的五级政府预算。纵向来看，实行一级政府一级预算，共五级。年度预算 编制流程大体可以分为两轮，即"二上二下"。 "四本账"既相对独立又相互衔接，存在当期跨账本的调配。一般公共预算 是"总枢纽"，与其他三本账常有资金往来，可接收调入资金或提供补贴； 同时，四本账借助结转结余和预算稳定调节基金开展跨年度调节，保障财政 运行稳定。 各账本功能明确、各有侧重。 一般公共预算是财政预算体系的核心，规模也最大，可以理解为狭义上的财 政预算。收入由税收收入和非税收入两部分组成，税收是绝对的主体，占比 超过八成。一般公共预算支出主要包括公共服务、民生类支出和基建类支出。 目前存在"财权-事权"错配，即地方财政收入占比低但支出占比高的问题。 这一形势下，中央持续加大对地方的转移支付力度。 市场走势 政府性基金预算收入以国有土地使用权出让收入为主，支出专项用于 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the recent mortgage interest rate cuts in early 2026 are a significant policy move aimed at alleviating the financial burden on homebuyers and stabilizing the real estate market [1][3][11] - The mortgage rate cuts are part of a broader macroeconomic adjustment strategy, reflecting a continuation of policies aimed at supporting housing demand and promoting healthy market development [3][7] - The reduction in monthly mortgage payments will vary based on loan type, amount, and term, with specific examples showing substantial savings for both first and second home buyers [4][6] Group 2 - The impact of the interest rate cuts on the real estate market is expected to be moderate, focusing on gradual recovery rather than a rapid market overheating, as seen in previous rate cut cycles [7][9] - The policy aims to optimize the housing consumption environment and stabilize market expectations, making homeownership more accessible for young families and easing repayment pressures for existing borrowers [9][11] - The interest rate cuts are anticipated to improve cash flow for real estate companies, reduce debt risks, and enhance market transaction activity, fostering a positive cycle in both new and second-hand housing markets [9][11]

Group 1: New Economic Policies in Vietnam - From January 2026, several important new economic policies will take effect in Vietnam, including the Special Consumption Tax Law, Advertising Law, land use fee reductions, minimum wage increases, and a technology transfer mechanism for railway projects [1] Group 2: Special Consumption Tax Law - The new Special Consumption Tax Law, passed on June 14, 2025, aims to increase fiscal budget revenue, adjust consumption behavior, and guide the market towards sustainable development [2] Group 3: Advertising Law Adjustments - The amended Advertising Law, passed on June 16, 2025, focuses on administrative reform, reducing compliance costs for businesses, and enhancing the efficiency of advertising activities in a digital economy context [3] Group 4: International Financial Center Court Law - The National Assembly has passed the International Financial Center Court Law, establishing the court's functions, structure, and procedures, which is a significant legislative achievement [4] Group 5: ODA and Foreign Loan Regulations - New regulations on Official Development Assistance (ODA) and foreign loan transfer mechanisms have been introduced to enhance flexibility and expand access to preferential funding, supporting development investments [5] Group 6: Price Management Mechanism - The amended Price Law focuses on expanding regulatory scope, protecting consumers, and improving market transparency, which is essential for macroeconomic stability [6] Group 7: Macro-Economic Stability and Sustainable Development - The National Budget Law emphasizes maintaining macroeconomic stability and sustainable development, incorporating transparency and social oversight into the fiscal budget framework [7] Group 8: Railway Investment Prioritization - The Railway Law designates railways as a priority investment area, introducing mechanisms to encourage private sector participation in railway infrastructure development [8] Group 9: Statistical Law Adjustments - The amended Statistical Law aims to improve economic and social governance by reducing compliance costs and enhancing data transparency [10] Group 10: Land Use Fee Reductions - A resolution allows for reduced land use fees when converting agricultural land to residential use, aimed at alleviating financial burdens on families and meeting housing demands [11] Group 11: Agricultural Land Tax Policy - A new policy extends the tax exemption period for agricultural land use, encouraging production scale expansion and enhancing agricultural competitiveness [12] Group 12: Minimum Wage Increase - The minimum wage has been set between 3.7 million and 5.31 million VND per month, aimed at ensuring worker income and purchasing power [12] Group 13: Railway Technology Transfer Mechanism - A new decree establishes a special mechanism for technology development and transfer in the railway sector, promoting local capabilities and reducing reliance on foreign technology [13] Group 14: New Accounting Standards - The new accounting standards issued by the Ministry of Finance aim to align with international standards, enhancing financial transparency and financing capabilities for businesses [14] Group 15: Corporate Tax Incentives for Electronics Manufacturing - New standards for corporate tax incentives for electronics manufacturing companies have been introduced, aimed at reducing costs and encouraging investment in high-tech sectors [15]

Group 1: Core Insights - The core viewpoint presented by Liu Jianjun at the "2025 Sci-Tech Investment Conference" is that China's equity and venture capital funds are poised for significant development opportunities under the guidance of the "14th Five-Year Plan" [1][2]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - The investment opportunities can be categorized into two main areas: "4+5" industrial investment opportunities, which include four major fields and five special industries [1]. - The four major fields for investment include optimizing traditional industries, nurturing emerging and future industries, promoting high-quality development in the service sector, and constructing a modern infrastructure system, particularly focusing on new-type infrastructure [1]. - The five special industries focus on emerging sectors such as modern agriculture, health care, green transformation, national security, and military industry [1]. Group 3: Investment Environment - Liu Jianjun emphasizes the importance of creating a stable macroeconomic environment, a healthy capital market environment, and a stable macro tax environment to foster the development of equity and venture capital funds [2]. - The role of government investment funds is highlighted as crucial in guiding and stimulating investment, alongside innovative regulatory approaches to develop venture capital [2]. Group 4: Policy Environment - The current macroeconomic adjustments require not only proactive fiscal policies but also potentially active monetary policies to stabilize growth, employment, and expectations [2]. - Liu Jianjun suggests that the capital market should balance both financing and investment functions to promote sustainable development [2]. Group 5: Taxation and Structural Policies - Liu Jianjun indicates that during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, a stable macro tax environment is expected to be established, focusing on enhancing fiscal sustainability and refining tax policies related to income and capital [3]. - There is a potential for introducing structural preferential policies in the venture capital fund sector, which should be tailored to China's specific conditions and informed by international experiences [3].

Core Viewpoint - The speech by Liu Jianjun at the "2025 Sci-Tech Investment Conference" highlights significant development opportunities for equity and venture capital funds in China, driven by the "14th Five-Year Plan" recommendations, focusing on two main aspects: investment opportunities in "4+5" industries and creating a favorable investment environment [1][2]. Investment Opportunities - The "4" major industry investment opportunities include optimizing traditional industries, nurturing emerging and future industries, promoting high-quality development in the service sector, and constructing a modern infrastructure system, particularly in new infrastructure [1]. - The "5" special industry investment opportunities focus on emerging sectors such as modern agriculture, health care, green transformation, national security, and military industries. Examples include implementing seed industry revitalization, advancing traditional Chinese medicine, supporting innovative drugs and medical devices, and enhancing national security capabilities in emerging fields like AI and biotechnology [1]. Investment Environment - Liu Jianjun emphasizes the importance of a stable macroeconomic environment, a healthy capital market, and a stable macro tax environment to foster the development of equity and venture capital funds. Key measures include leveraging government investment funds, innovating regulatory approaches, and improving the overseas investment environment for enterprises [2]. - The need for proactive macroeconomic policies, including monetary policy adjustments, is highlighted to address unprecedented global changes and ensure stable growth, employment, and expectations [2]. Policy Environment - The "14th Five-Year Plan" is expected to create a stable macro tax environment through enhancing fiscal sustainability, refining tax policies, and improving income distribution systems. This includes supporting the expansion of the middle-income group and regulating excessive income [3]. - Liu Jianjun suggests that structural tax incentives for venture capital funds should be carefully designed, taking into account China's unique circumstances and learning from international experiences, particularly focusing on promoting long-term investment incentives [3].

Economic Growth - The industrial added value is expected to grow by 6.0% year-on-year in October 2025, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points from the previous period[8] - Fixed asset investment is projected to decline by 0.8% year-on-year from January to October 2025, widening the decline by 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous period[9] - Social retail sales are anticipated to increase by 2.1% year-on-year in October 2025, down 0.9 percentage points from the previous month[22] Trade and Exports - Exports are expected to grow by 4.1% year-on-year in October 2025, a decrease of 4.2 percentage points from the previous period[12] - Imports are projected to rise by 3.3% year-on-year in October 2025, down 4.1 percentage points from the previous period[33] Inflation and Prices - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is forecasted to increase by 0.1% year-on-year in October 2025, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month[38] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) is expected to decline by 2.2% year-on-year in October 2025, with the decline narrowing by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month[42] Monetary Policy - New RMB loans are anticipated to reach 600 billion yuan in October 2025, an increase of 100 billion yuan compared to the same period last year[44] - M2 money supply is projected to grow by 8.3% year-on-year in October 2025, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous period[48] Currency Exchange - The RMB exchange rate is expected to fluctuate between 7.00 and 7.20 in November 2025, reflecting a trend of gradual appreciation[52]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of properly managing local government debt to ensure stable economic operation, highlighting that debt resolution strategies should adapt to economic cycles and focus on restoring the balance sheets of local governments to stimulate endogenous economic growth [2][3][4]. Group 1: Local Government Debt and Economic Stability - Local government debt management is crucial for economic stability, as it affects the capacity and willingness of local governments to invest, which in turn influences corporate investment and consumer spending [4][7]. - In the first half of the year, China's economy grew by 5.3%, but faced pressure in the third quarter due to insufficient demand and weakened consumer spending [4][5]. - The relationship between local governments, enterprises, and residents is interdependent, especially during economic downturns, where local governments play a key role in stabilizing expectations and promoting investment [6][7]. Group 2: Debt Management Strategies - The article distinguishes between "debt resolution" and "risk resolution," arguing that simply reducing debt levels can exacerbate risks if it undermines local governments' ability to invest in infrastructure and economic development [11]. - Different debt management strategies should be employed based on economic cycles: "repayment-style debt resolution" during economic upturns and "continuation-style debt resolution" during downturns [12]. - The efficiency and quality of assets corresponding to government debt are critical; thus, the focus should shift from merely controlling debt size to optimizing the structure of debt [13]. Group 3: Structural Issues in Debt Management - There are structural mismatches between the available debt resolution resources and local needs, necessitating a more flexible allocation of debt limits based on actual conditions [18]. - The scale of hidden debts remains unclear, with estimates suggesting that including recognized hidden debts raises the debt-to-GDP ratio significantly, indicating a need for better transparency and management [19]. - The current approach to replacing hidden debts with special bonds does not always align with the underlying asset quality, suggesting a need for a more nuanced strategy [20][21]. Group 4: Policy Recommendations - Short-term recommendations include optimizing debt resolution methods and increasing local debt limits to address immediate financial pressures from real estate adjustments [25][26]. - Long-term strategies should focus on stabilizing the macro tax burden, reforming the fiscal system, and ensuring that financing platforms transition effectively to market-oriented operations [27][28][29].

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) emphasizes the need for proactive monetary policy adjustments to align with domestic and international economic conditions, ensuring effective implementation of monetary measures [1][2] - The meeting highlights the importance of maintaining ample liquidity and guiding financial institutions to increase credit supply, matching social financing scale and money supply growth with economic growth and price level expectations [1][2] - The PBOC aims to enhance the resilience of the foreign exchange market, stabilize market expectations, and prevent excessive fluctuations in the RMB exchange rate [1][2] Group 2 - The meeting acknowledges the complex external environment, with weakening global economic growth and increasing trade barriers, while recognizing the steady progress of China's economy despite challenges such as insufficient domestic demand and low price levels [2][3] - The PBOC calls for large banks to play a key role in supporting the real economy, while smaller banks should focus on their core responsibilities and strengthen capital [3] - The meeting stresses the need for effective implementation of structural monetary policy tools to support key areas such as technological innovation, consumption, small and micro enterprises, and stabilizing foreign trade [3][4] Group 3 - The PBOC emphasizes the importance of aligning monetary policy with the goals of high-quality development and the new development paradigm, focusing on domestic circulation and balancing supply and demand [4] - The meeting underlines the necessity of maintaining policy continuity and stability while enhancing flexibility and foresight to stimulate domestic demand and consolidate economic recovery [4]

Economic Development - The core argument suggests that China's economic growth targets should not be based solely on estimates of "potential economic growth rates" due to considerable uncertainty in these estimates [4][5][6] - The estimation of China's potential economic growth rate varies widely among scholars, ranging from 5% to 8%, and there is a lack of official estimates from authoritative government bodies [5][6] - The article emphasizes the importance of using a trial-and-error approach in setting economic growth targets, advocating for expansionary fiscal policies when indicators such as inflation and employment are low [7] - Long-term factors influencing economic performance should not be used to explain short-term economic changes, as many intermediate factors affect current economic growth [8][9] - Macroeconomic regulation and structural reform are not mutually exclusive; both are necessary to address complex economic issues [10][11] - The article discusses the significance of the "Four Trillion Yuan Stimulus Plan" and its long-term effects on China's economic growth and financial stability [17][18] - It highlights the relationship between monetary policy and real estate regulation, noting that fluctuations in monetary policy often correlate with changes in housing prices [29][31] - The article critiques the belief that inflation is always a monetary phenomenon, presenting evidence of instances where inflation rates did not align with monetary supply growth [22][23][24] - It concludes that the lessons learned from over 20 years of macroeconomic regulation in China emphasize the importance of maintaining growth as a fundamental objective [33]

Core Viewpoint - Moody's has maintained China's sovereign credit rating at "A1" with a negative outlook, reflecting a positive assessment of China's economic recovery and stability [1] Economic Performance - Since the fourth quarter of last year, the Chinese government has implemented a series of macroeconomic policies that have led to a rebound in economic indicators, stabilizing market expectations and confidence [1] - The sustainability of debt in the medium to long term has improved, contributing to Moody's decision to keep the credit rating stable [1] Global Economic Context - The global economy is facing multiple challenges, including insufficient momentum, escalating geopolitical conflicts, and instability in international trade [1] - Despite these uncertainties, China's economy has shown a strong start, with stable production and consumption demand, enhancing the stability and coordination of economic operations [1] Future Outlook - A series of incremental and existing policies will continue to work in tandem to support high-quality economic development [1] - China is committed to maintaining confidence and focus on internal matters, regardless of external changes [1]