Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights that in the first seven months of the year, local government special bonds, ultra-long-term special treasury bonds, and special treasury bonds for central financial institution capital injection amounted to 2.89 trillion yuan, leading to a 31.7% increase in government fund budget expenditures [1] Group 2 - The expenditure of 2.89 trillion yuan is a significant driver for the growth in government fund budget spending [1] - The increase in government fund budget expenditures indicates a strong fiscal response to economic conditions [1] - The data reflects the government's strategy to utilize special bonds to stimulate economic activity [1]

Core Insights - The use of special bonds by local governments has shown significant effects on stabilizing investment and the economy, but issues in fund management and project oversight have been highlighted by recent audits [1][2][3] Group 1: Issues Identified - Recent audits from 17 provinces revealed problems in the management and use of special bond funds, including data inaccuracies in monitoring systems that hinder risk control [1][2] - Some local governments have exaggerated project benefits during the application process, leading to slow project progress or even project halts, resulting in idle funds [1][3] - There are instances of fund misappropriation, with some localities using special bond funds for unrelated expenditures, such as repaying loans or covering operational costs [4][5] Group 2: Financial Context - The scale of special bond issuance has been increasing, with an expected issuance of 4.4 trillion yuan this year, and the total local government special debt reaching approximately 34.8 trillion yuan by mid-year [2] - The reliance on special bonds as a financing tool has grown, especially during economic downturns, but the management capabilities of local governments have not kept pace with the rapid expansion of debt [2][8] Group 3: Underlying Causes - The lack of rigorous project evaluation and risk assessment has led to inflated project claims, with local governments often rushing to secure funding without thorough feasibility studies [8][9] - The mismatch between project financing and actual revenue generation has been a persistent issue, with many projects failing to meet expected returns [9][10] Group 4: Regulatory Responses - The State Council has initiated measures to address these issues, including the introduction of a "negative list" management model for special bond projects to enhance flexibility in fund allocation [12][13] - Recommendations for improving project evaluation processes include involving financial institutions in assessments and ensuring that revenue projections are realistic [13][14] Group 5: Future Directions - There is a call for deeper fiscal reforms to clarify the role of special bonds, ensuring they are used specifically for projects that can generate sufficient returns to cover debt obligations [15]

财政部24日发布的《2021年中国财政政策执行情况报告》显示，2021年，全国一般公共预算收入首 次突破20万亿元，达到20.25万亿元，比上年增长10.7%，与2019年相比增长6.4%，完成收入预算并有一 定超收。其中，中央一般公共预算收入9.15万亿元，同比增长10.5%；地方一般公共预算本级收入11.1 万亿元，同比增长10.9%。 报告指出，2022年，积极的财政政策要提升效能，更加注重精准、可持续，重点做好六个方面工 作：一是实施更大力度减税降费，增强市场主体活力。围绕中小微企业、个体工商户和制造业等重点行 业，坚持以阶段性政策为主，与制度性措施相结合，兼顾财政承受能力和助企需要，实施更大力度的减 税降费。二是保持适当支出强度，提高支出精准度。财政赤字保持在合理水平，扩大财政支出规模。大 力优化支出结构，重点支持科技攻关、生态环保、基本民生、区域重大战略、现代农业和国家"十四 五"规划重大项目。三是合理安排地方政府专项债券，支持重点项目建设。四是加大中央对地方转移支 付，兜牢基层"三保"底线。五是坚持党政机关过紧日子，节俭办一切事业。六是严肃财经纪律，整饬财 经秩序。 报告显示，受经济稳定恢复和价 ...

Core Viewpoint - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has completed the selection of approximately 38,000 special bond projects for 2024, with a demand of around 5.9 trillion yuan, laying a solid foundation for the issuance of 3.9 trillion yuan in special bonds this year [1][2]. Group 1: Project Acceleration and Funding Utilization - The NDRC emphasizes the need for local governments to strictly adhere to project quality requirements and accelerate project construction and funding utilization to quickly generate physical work volume [2]. - As of April 15, 34 provinces and municipalities have disclosed their second-quarter local bond issuance plans, totaling 22,091 billion yuan, including 11,692 billion yuan in new special bonds [2]. - The Ministry of Finance plans to guide local governments in optimizing the issuance rhythm of special bonds and enhancing the performance of bond fund utilization to support major projects and stimulate economic recovery [2][3]. Group 2: Improvement of Fund Utilization Efficiency - The Ministry of Finance will optimize the direction of special bond investments, including more areas such as new energy, new infrastructure, and new industries, and will support projects like independent new-type energy storage and comprehensive water environment governance [3]. - The focus will be on significant projects that have clear economic and social benefits, strong driving effects, and are highly anticipated by the public, such as affordable housing and student dormitories [3]. - There will be an emphasis on enhancing the efficiency of special bonds while managing a negative list and ensuring a balance in project financing returns, directing resources to well-prepared and high-efficiency investment regions [3].

Core Insights - In the first half of this year, a total of 2.16 trillion yuan of new local government special bonds were issued, representing a year-on-year increase of 45% [1] Group 1 - The issuance and utilization progress of special bonds has significantly accelerated [1]

Core Insights - The issuance of new special bonds in China has stabilized around 4 trillion yuan for 2023 and 2024 after reaching a historical high in 2022 [1][2] - Special bonds have become a crucial policy tool for local governments to stabilize investment and mitigate risks [2] - The issuance scale of new special bonds is projected to reach 44 trillion yuan by 2025, which is over 48 times the amount issued in 2015 [2] Group 1: Issuance Trends - The overall issuance of special bonds has seen rapid growth since 2015, but the growth rate has slowed down during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period compared to the "13th Five-Year Plan" [2] - The core reason for the slowdown in issuance growth is the need for special bond limits to align with government fund budget revenues and project returns [2] - The issuance of new special bonds reached nearly 2.2 trillion yuan by the end of June 2023, with a progress rate of 49.1%, surpassing the 37.2% rate from the previous year [5] Group 2: Allocation of Funds - The funds from new special bonds are primarily allocated to three main areas: project construction (1.5 trillion yuan, 69.6%), debt resolution (464.78 billion yuan, 21.5%), and land acquisition (192.49 billion yuan, 8.9%) [6] - Some provinces are directing a significant portion of new special bond funds towards resolving hidden debt and settling overdue payments to enterprises [6] - The recent policy changes have diversified the use of new special bonds, allowing them to be used for repaying overdue enterprise payments and addressing hidden debt, rather than being limited to projects with certain returns [6][7] Group 3: Policy Changes - The State Council's recent opinions have expanded the scope of special bond projects through a "negative list" approach, allowing more fields to receive support [3] - The 2025 issuance limit for new special bonds has been raised to 4.4 trillion yuan, reflecting a 10% increase to address economic stability and risk prevention needs [2][3] - The repayment sources for special bonds have also been broadened, allowing local governments to use general public budgets for repayment, enhancing financial flexibility [7]

Core Insights - Infrastructure investment has shown positive trends this year due to proactive fiscal policies, accelerated government bond issuance, and the commencement of major projects, although some high-frequency data related to infrastructure and construction site funding rates indicate that the momentum for effective investment expansion still needs to be fully realized [1][4][5] Infrastructure Investment Trends - The issuance of new local government special bonds exceeded 440 billion yuan in May, marking a record high for the year, while the construction business activity index remained in expansion at 51% [1][2] - High-frequency indicators such as rebar apparent demand, cement dispatch rates, and asphalt plant operating rates weakened in May, with rebar demand at 248.91 million tons, cement dispatch at 41.25%, and asphalt plant operating rates at 27.7%, all lower than the same period last year [1][2] Construction Site Funding Rates - As of June 3, the funding rate for sample construction sites was 59.13%, below the critical threshold of 60%, with non-residential projects at 61.01% and residential projects at 49.85% [3][4] - The low funding rates may impact project construction progress, but the civil engineering business activity index rose to 62.3% in May, indicating a continued acceleration in project construction [3][4] Fiscal Policy and Investment Support - The acceleration of new special bond issuance and the initiation of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds are expected to enhance fiscal support for effective investment [4][5] - The proportion of new special bonds allocated to infrastructure is approximately 72%, showing a slight increase from the previous month [5][6] Future Outlook - The issuance of replacement bonds has exceeded 80%, and the slowing pace of these issuances will create space for subsequent special bond issuances, which are expected to provide stronger support for infrastructure [5][6] - Experts predict that the necessity of using infrastructure investment to support the economy is increasing, with expected growth rates for broad and narrow infrastructure investments at 7.2% and 4.8% respectively for the year [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the acceleration of special bond issuance in various regions due to the "self-examination and self-issuance" pilot program, which is expected to enhance investment and stabilize growth in the second half of the year [1][3] - The pilot program includes ten provinces and municipalities, allowing them to issue special bonds without national approval, thereby increasing the efficiency of fund allocation and usage [1][2] - In the first half of the year, pilot regions issued a total of 2.16 trillion yuan in new special bonds, with major provinces like Guangdong, Shandong, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang each exceeding 300 billion yuan in issuance [1][2] Group 2 - Regions are not only speeding up bond issuance but also expanding the areas of investment and the scope of project capital, with nearly 200 billion yuan allocated for land reserve and acquisition of idle land [2][3] - Zhejiang's issuance of 552.67 billion yuan in special bonds, including 16.53 billion yuan for purchasing existing residential properties for affordable housing, sets a precedent for other regions [2][3] - Experts predict that the issuance of new special bonds will accelerate in the second half of the year, with a focus on supporting key areas and weak links, potentially reaching close to 2 trillion yuan in a single quarter [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current market as a whole shows signs of breaking through the previous oscillation and starting to break upward. It is recommended to be bullish on stock index futures and buy options for stock index options. In the medium - to - long - term, A - shares have a high investment cost - performance ratio. CSI 500 and CSI 1000 are more supported by science and innovation policies and may bring higher returns due to their high growth potential, while SSE 50 and CSI 300 have more defensive value in the current macro - environment [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures Market - **IF Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IF contracts decreased compared to the day before yesterday, with declines ranging from - 0.72% to - 0.79%. Volumes were 39,772.00 (current month), 2,237.00 (next month), 56,221.00 (next quarter), and 9,123.00 (inter - quarter). Open interest increased, with increments of 4,653.00, 623.00, 3,684.00, and 1,256.00 respectively [1] - **IH Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IH contracts decreased, with declines from - 1.12% to - 1.17%. Volumes were 20,919.00 (current month), 1,487.00 (next month), 32,852.00 (next quarter), and 3,919.00 (inter - quarter). Open interest increased, with increments of 2,572.00, 377.00, 4,634.00, and 1,039.00 respectively [1] - **IC Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IC contracts increased, with increases from 0.23% to 0.27%. Volumes were 36,609.00 (current month), 3,200.00 (next month), 32,557.00 (next quarter), and 10,256.00 (inter - quarter). Open interest increased, with increments of 1,525.00, 922.00, 3,085.00, and 202.00 respectively [1] - **IM Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IM contracts increased slightly, with increases from 0.02% to 0.20%. Volumes were 55,188.00 (current month), 4,157.00 (next month), 113,010.00 (next quarter), and 21,753.00 (inter - quarter). Open interest changes varied, with a decrease of 663.00 in the current month and increases in other periods [1] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The inter - month spreads of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts changed, with IF next month - IF current month spread increasing from - 12.60 to - 9.60, IH next month - IH current month spread increasing from - 5.20 to - 4.40, IC next month - IC current month spread increasing from - 38.40 to - 37.20, and IM next month - IM current month spread decreasing from - 55.20 to - 56.20 [1] 3.2 Stock Index Spot Market - **Major Indexes**: The CSI 300 index decreased by - 0.61%, the SSE 50 index decreased by - 1.13%, the CSI 500 index increased by 0.44%, and the CSI 1000 index increased by 0.47%. The trading volumes and total transaction amounts of these indexes also changed [1] - **Industry Indexes**: Different industries showed different trends. Industries such as raw materials, telecommunications services had positive growth rates, while industries like real estate finance, major consumption had negative growth rates [1] 3.3 Futures - Spot Basis - The basis of IF contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, inter - quarter) to the CSI 300 index changed compared to the day before yesterday, with the current month basis changing from - 25.22 to - 29.76, and so on [1] 3.4 Other Domestic and Overseas Indexes - **Domestic Indexes**: The Shanghai Composite Index decreased by - 0.22%, the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by - 0.48%, the Small and Medium - sized Board Index decreased by - 0.72%, and the ChiNext Index decreased by - 0.66% [1] - **Overseas Indexes**: The Hang Seng Index decreased by - 0.61%, the Nikkei 225 increased by 1.65%, the S&P 500 increased by 0.80%, and the DAX Index increased by 0.64% [1] 3.5 Macro Information - The 2025 Listed Companies Forum was held in Wenzhou from June 28th - 29th, where the four major exchanges (Shanghai, Shenzhen, Beijing, and Hong Kong) released multi - dimensional reform signals. Over 30 A - share companies have submitted H - share listing applications, and over 20 A - share companies have announced H - share listing plans [2] - China decided to conditionally resume the import of aquatic products from some regions in Japan under certain conditions [2] - A more proactive fiscal policy has been implemented this year. In the second half of the year, fiscal policy will focus on the early issuance and use of ultra - long - term special bonds and local government special bonds, and incremental reserve policies may be introduced [2] - The Chief Executive of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, Li Jiachao, said that Hong Kong should play a connecting role and explore new business opportunities [2] 3.6 Industry Information - The new round of refined oil price adjustment window will open at 24:00 on July 1st, and it is predicted that gasoline and diesel prices will increase by 600 yuan/ton [2] - The number of public fund managers reached a new high of 4,041 in the first half of this year, a 19% increase from the beginning of the year. At the same time, 182 fund managers left their positions [2] - Private banks have frequently lowered deposit interest rates this year, but some still maintain relatively high rates, and there is a significant differentiation among them [2] - From January to May this year, domestic passenger ships sent 113 million passengers, an increase of 7.37% year - on - year; international vessels had 179,800 port calls, an increase of 2.45% year - on - year; and the cargo carried by international vessels was 1.987 billion tons, an increase of 1.66% year - on - year [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that a more proactive fiscal policy is expected to be implemented in the second half of the year, focusing on increasing spending intensity and accelerating expenditure progress to boost domestic demand [1] Fiscal Policy Developments - Since the beginning of the year, the fiscal policy has been more aggressive, with increased spending and a focus on areas that benefit people's livelihoods, promote consumption, and enhance economic resilience [1] - Experts predict that the fiscal policy will expedite the implementation of existing policies, particularly through the early issuance and utilization of ultra-long special government bonds and local government special bonds [1] Potential Future Measures - There is a possibility that new incremental reserve policies will be introduced to further stimulate domestic demand, which may include the issuance of additional ultra-long special government bonds and the establishment of new policy financial instruments [1]