Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market divergence is expected to be gradually digested during the index's shock adjustment process, and the index is expected to rise further with the emergence of new mainlines. The bottom - supporting role of Central Huijin provides a certain buffer, and the overall downside risk of the index is controllable. Traders can consider gradually establishing long positions during the market adjustment phase and use the discount structure of stock index futures to improve the probability of long - term investment success [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward space [1]. Summary by Industry Categories Macro - financial - **Stock Index Futures**: The adjustment in the recent market provides an opportunity for the index to rise further next year. Traders can gradually establish long positions during the adjustment phase and use the discount structure of stock index futures to improve long - term investment success [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but short - term interest - rate risks warned by the central bank suppress the upward space [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: After the short - term digestion of positive sentiment, there is a risk of price decline [1]. - **Alumina**: Domestic production and inventory continue to increase, the fundamental situation remains weak, and prices are under downward pressure. Attention should be paid to changes in ore prices [1]. - **Zinc**: After the short - term digestion of macro positive factors and with oversupply, there is a risk of price decline. Attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities at high prices [1]. - **Nickel**: The expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut has risen, and the macro sentiment has improved. Although Indonesia has restricted nickel - related smelting project approvals again, the impact is limited. Short - term nickel prices may fluctuate with the macro situation, and attention should be paid to position changes. In the medium - to - long - term, the nickel market remains in an oversupply pattern [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: The macro sentiment has improved, and raw materials have stopped falling. Stainless steel futures may fluctuate and rebound in the short term. Attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities at high prices [1]. - **Tin**: After the digestion of macro positive factors, due to the tense situation in Congo and the risk of supply disruptions, tin prices have strengthened. However, there is a risk of short - term pull - back. In the medium - to - long - term, tin is still bullish [1]. Precious Metals and New Energy - **Gold**: The market is focused on the possibility of the Bank of Japan's interest - rate hike in December, and the sentiment in the precious - metals market has become cautious. Gold prices may fluctuate within a range due to the expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut in December [1]. - **Silver**: The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange has risen for six consecutive days, and silver prices have continued to decline with position reduction. The short - term market may continue to fluctuate sharply, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Platinum**: Platinum prices are expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term. It is recommended to wait for opportunities to go long at low prices [1]. - **Palladium**: Palladium prices are expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term. It is recommended to go short at high prices. The [long platinum, short palladium] arbitrage strategy can continue to be held [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: There is an expectation of capacity reduction in the medium - to - long - term. In December, the production of polysilicon and organic silicon is expected to decline [1]. - **Polysilicon**: There is an expectation of capacity reduction in the medium - to - long - term. Terminal installations are expected to increase marginally in the fourth quarter, and large manufacturers have strong price - support intentions [1]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The traditional peak season for new - energy vehicles is approaching, and energy - storage demand is strong. Supply is expected to increase [1]. Black Metals - **Rebar**: In December, macro drivers are strengthening, providing some rebound momentum. After the futures price rises, it is beneficial for basis positive - spread positions to enter the market. It is not recommended to chase high prices unilaterally [1]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Similar to rebar, macro drivers are strengthening in December, providing rebound momentum. Basis positive - spread positions can be entered after the futures price rises. It is not recommended to chase high prices unilaterally [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The immediate demand is acceptable, and there is cost support, but supply is high, inventory is accumulating, and the sector is under pressure. The price rebound space is limited [1]. - **Manganese Ore**: The short - term production profit is poor, cost support is strengthening, direct demand is acceptable, but supply is high, and the downstream is under pressure. The price rebound is limited [1]. - **Coke**: The supply - demand situation has support, and the valuation is low, but short - term sentiment dominates, and price fluctuations are strengthening [1]. - **Soda Ash**: It generally follows the trend of glass, but the supply - demand situation is average, and there is significant upward resistance to prices [1]. - **Coking Coal**: From a valuation perspective, the current decline is close to the end. From a driving perspective, downstream replenishment is expected to start around mid - December [1]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: The impact of floods on palm oil production is limited, and the near - month inventory pressure is high. In December, domestic arrivals are expected to be large, and the basis is expected to be weak [1]. - **Rapeseed**: The industry is optimistic about the supply of Australian rapeseed and imported crude rapeseed oil, and short - selling opportunities can be considered [1]. - **Cotton**: The new domestic crop has a strong production expectation, and the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint. Downstream demand is weak, but there is rigid replenishment demand. The cotton market is currently in a situation of "having support but no driver" [1]. - **Sugar**: Globally, there is an oversupply of sugar, and the new domestic crop supply is increasing. If the futures price continues to fall, there is strong cost support below [1]. - **Soybeans**: China has been purchasing US soybeans, which supports the US soybean market. The weather in Brazil lacks obvious factors for speculation, and the short - term market is expected to fluctuate [1]. - **Paper Pulp**: There has been cancellation of old warehouse receipts and registration of new ones. The recovery of demand remains to be verified, and the short - term market is expected to fluctuate [1]. - **Logs**: The fundamental situation of logs has weakened, but this has been priced into the market. It is not recommended to short - sell after the sharp decline [1]. - **Hogs**: The spot price has gradually stabilized, demand is supportive, and the production capacity still needs to be further released [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026, the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement is still being promoted, and the US has increased sanctions against Russia [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: Similar to crude oil, it is affected by OPEC+ policies, the Russia - Ukraine situation, and US sanctions [1]. - **Asphalt**: The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, following the trend of crude oil. The demand for the 14th Five - Year Plan is likely to be disproven, the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient, and the profit margin is high [1]. - **BR Rubber**: The price support of butadiene is limited, and refinery overhauls may bring positive expectations. However, high inventory is still the main factor suppressing price increases [1]. - **PTA**: OPEC's production increase has slowed down, and there are rumors of domestic refinery overhauls, which are beneficial to PX. Indian PTA import certification restrictions have been lifted, improving the export prospects of domestic PTA manufacturers [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Inventory has increased, prices have fallen, and cost support has weakened. The expectation of new domestic plant commissioning is suppressing price increases [1]. - **Styrene**: The Asian benzene price is still weak, and the operating rates of STDP and reforming units have decreased. US gasoline demand has weakened, and the price of high - octane components has declined, weakening cost support [1]. - **Urea**: Export sentiment has eased, and domestic demand is insufficient, limiting the upward space. There is support from anti - inversion and cost [1]. - **Propylene**: The supply pressure is large, downstream improvement is less than expected, the propylene monomer price is high, providing cost support, and the oil - based cost has decreased [1]. - **PVC**: The market is returning to fundamentals. With fewer future overhauls and new capacity coming online, supply pressure is increasing, and demand is weakening [1]. - **Caustic Soda**: Some alumina plants have delayed production, and the procurement rhythm has slowed down. The operating rate is high, and there is inventory pressure in Shandong. The absolute price is low, and there is a risk of short - squeeze [1]. - **LPG**: Geopolitical and tariff tensions have eased, and the international oil - gas market has returned to a situation of fundamental relaxation. The CP/FEI has recently rebounded. The LPG market is expected to fluctuate within a range [1]. - **Shipping**: The price increase in December was less than expected, the peak - season price - increase expectation was priced in advance, and the shipping capacity supply in December was relatively loose [1]

Market Overview - Gold experienced a significant drop, falling by $45 after reaching a high near $3672, indicating a continued high-level adjustment phase [1][10] - The recent trading saw a V-shaped rebound, with gold briefly surpassing $3670 before plunging to $3627 [5] - Current adjustments suggest a potential test of the $3631 support level, with further declines expected if this level is breached, targeting $3600 [9][10] Economic Factors - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut has influenced market sentiment, with Chairman Powell's comments suggesting a conservative approach, leading to a strong dollar and subsequent gold price decline [11] - A notable drop in unemployment claims, the largest in four years, indicates a reversal in labor market performance, further strengthening the dollar and pressuring gold prices [11] Central Bank Decisions - The upcoming Bank of Japan's decision is critical, especially following the Fed's recent rate cut and the Bank of England's decision to maintain rates [12] - Despite a cooling CPI, the Bank of Japan may still consider further rate hikes, which could impact currency markets [12] Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to focus on entry and exit points for gold investments, emphasizing the importance of accuracy in trading to achieve stable profits [12] - A well-established trading team claims an accuracy rate of 85% or higher, highlighting the potential for significant profit margins with controlled risk [12]