黄金疯了，一路走高，而且狂奔加速。接连冲高跳水，多空较劲，但依然不改上涨的脚步，还处在连续 破高的路上，昨天冲高回落休整，继续看涨，续看历史新高。 下周的走势 昨天高开高走，再刷新高后。 又是闪跌调整，不过力度有限。 多头依然强势，下周继续看涨。 上方先看4550，再破高，看向4600的关口，不猜顶。 当然了，短期内依然存在调整的需求。 下方回落，可再探4500的关口。 黄金10月疯狂跳水后，到本月，一路回升，本周一度刷历史新高，涨没了所有的跌幅。重回巅峰，强势 不改，多头势头依然比较猛，继续看涨，而且看向4600的区域。同时，下方可调整空间拉大，可调整空 间看向4380的区域。 操作方面，黄金一路爬坡，而且加速冲刺，强势不改，看涨为主，关注4500和4437做多的机会。此外， 黄金冲高回落，小幅休整，不改强势，空单避让。 昨天主要因素： 一方面，地缘又起，全球各地战火纷飞，四处都散发着火药的味道，资本市场已经开启了收缩模式。俄 乌冲突扩容，美升级对委行动，两大主避险区不稳，加码资本对黄金的押注，提振黄金走强。 另外一方面，日央行又搞事情，加息后，又不断释放继续收紧信号，或继续加息步伐，又开始丢核弹。 以及重 ...

宏观研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.12.21 ss 2025-12-26 美联储或暂停降息，日央行如期加息 ——海外经济政策跟踪 本报告导读： 本周大宗商品中铜与金表现亮眼，发达市场股票表现优于新兴市场。美国就业市场 仍处于弱而不崩的状态，通胀增速不及预期，二次反弹风险相对可控，美联储短期 内或暂停降息进行观望。日央行如期加息 25BP，未来或仍将缓慢加息。欧央行降息 周期或已接近终点。 投资要点： [Table_Summary] 全球大类资产表现。本周（2025.12.15-2025.12.19），全球大宗商品 价格涨跌互现。其中，IPE 布油期货下跌 1.1%，标普-高盛商品指数 下跌 0.5%，而 COMEX 铜上涨 2.3%,，伦敦金现上涨 1.0%，南华商 品指数上涨 0.1%。 股票市场方面，新兴市场股票市场表现弱于发达市场。其中日经 225 下跌 2.6%，幅度最大。恒生指数下跌 1.1%。上证综指与上周 持平，标普 500 上涨 0.1%。新兴市场股票指数下跌 1.5%，发达市 场股票指数上涨 0.2%。债市方面，10 年期美债收益率较上周回落 3BP 至 4.16%，国内 10 ...

黄金暴力上冲，多头力量继续喷发释放，一不小心，狂飙了150美金。连刷历史新高，多头不减，再战 4500的关口。 今天的走势 昨天捅破4400，又是暴力冲高。 今天直接狂飙50美金，涨破4490。 来到4500附近，决战此关口。 再次上破，看新高，不猜顶。 一方面，美联储主席候选人面试，不断唱鸽，鸽派阵容扩大，宽松派排排站，不断向权利妥协，各种信 号表明，美联储不断被瓦解。多数支持明年或继续降息3次，美元走低，利好黄金大涨。 另外一方面，日央行加息之后，又开始放鹰，此次加息不够，还要继续升利率到1%上方。而且日财长 昨天出手，干预汇率市场，提振日元，美元直接闪崩了，到今天还在贬值，支撑黄金奋力狂奔。 今天消息面 重磅美第三季度GDP来了，可以说是姗姗来迟。来的晚，但影响力还在。关税冲击之下，第三季度经济 到底如何，今晚揭开谜底。也是对于特朗普业绩的检测，以及对于美联储未来预期的导航，或随时引爆 今晚黄金大幅波动。 当然了，4500再遇阻，短期内有调整的需求。 下方回踩，可先看向4428的位置。 再回踩此位置反弹，上方看高位调整。 同时，黄金坐地起飞，超买冲高，存在跳水洗盘修整的过程，下方再次跌穿4428，或回落 ...

宏观研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.12.19 2025-12-19 美联储大概率再降息，日央行或重拾加息 ——海外经济政策跟踪 本报告导读： 美国经济仍处于下行通道，下周美联储 12 月议息会议举行，预计大概率进一步降息 25BP，2026 年或仍有 2-3 次降息，美联储预防式降息周期下大类资产的逻辑持续演 绎。同时关注日本央行 12 月份可能加息带来的流动性风险。 券 研 究 报 证 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 宏 观 研 投资要点： 观 周 报 [Table_Summary] 全球大类资产表现。本周（2025.11.28-2025.12.5），全球大类资产 价格中，大宗商品价格多数上涨，全球股票市场基本也上涨。新兴 市场股票指数上涨 1.30%，恒生指数上涨 0.87%，日经 225 上涨 0.47%，上证综指上涨 0.37%，发达市场股票指数上涨 0.33%，标普 500 上涨 0.31%。 大宗商品价格多数上涨，其中，COMEX 铜上涨 3.33%，标普-高盛商品指数上涨 1.94%，IPE 布油期货上涨 1.06%， 南华商品指数上涨 0.97%，伦敦金现下跌 0.50%。 ...

行业 铜期货日报 日期 2025 年 12 月 17 日 研究员：张平 021-60635734 zhangping@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 图1：沪铜走势及盘面价差 图2：伦铜走势及价差 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 有色金属研究团队 研究员：余菲菲 研究员：彭婧霖 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、 行情回顾与操作建议 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 沪铜高开低走，AI 交易退潮以及日央行加息担忧令全球股市重挫，铜价上攻再度 受挫，沪铜最低跌至牛熊线附近，午后跌幅缩窄，近月价差缩窄至 80.现货跌 565， 贴水扩大 185，日内持货商抛售情绪高而买方接货情绪差，整体需求不佳。LME0-3 转为 contango 结构，现货进口亏损缩窄至 670 附近，洋山铜成交依旧疲弱。短期 全球股市 ...

浙商证券的报告中梳理了当下与上一次加息三个的不同点。一是截至10月21日衍生品市场头寸做多日元，和24 年7月大规模做空日元的交易方向相反。截至2025年10月21日，日元投机性净多头头寸升至70414张，多头处于 历史高位，而2024年7月9日日元投机性净空头头寸182033张，为历史空头最高位。二是市场预期已充分定价日 央行12月加息，截至12月4日，隔夜指数掉期数据显示市场对日央行12月加息的预期概率高达91.5%，而2024 年7月22日，市场预期7月31日日央行加息概率仅为37.6%。三是2024年7月的套息交易逆转还叠加了美国非农 就业数据大幅不及预期所引发的恐慌，而当前市场对11月美国失业率预期为4.4%，未触发衰退预警。 中金公司的观点类似，一方面，从套息交易的角度而言，当前不同方式测算下的套息交易规模均并不算大。另 一方面，本轮日央行放鹰并没有大幅超预期，日本央行此前对加息已有较多铺垫，市场对2025年12月央行加息 预期的抬升是相对缓慢的，且已逐渐靠近25bp，即已接近完全定价12月将加息一次（25bp）。 超级央行周即将开启！ 本周四（12月18日），英国、欧洲央行将公布利率决议；周五， ...

Group 1 - Gold experienced a significant drop of $70, returning to around $4300 after failing to break through strong resistance levels [1][14] - The market is currently facing a double top pressure, leading to two sharp declines [6][14] - After a brief recovery to above $4300, gold saw another flash drop, indicating ongoing pressure and adjustments [7][8] Group 2 - The recent movements in gold prices are influenced by external factors, including Trump's pressure on the Federal Reserve and the potential for a dovish stance from the Fed, which has led to a weaker dollar and a favorable environment for gold [14] - Developments in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, along with the upcoming Bank of Japan interest rate hike, have contributed to global asset sell-offs, causing gold to experience significant volatility [14] - The upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll data and December PMI figures are critical indicators that may impact market direction and volatility [15] Group 3 - The overall trend for gold remains bullish, with potential targets set at $4400, despite the need for short-term adjustments [13] - Key support levels to watch include $4257 and $4220 for potential buying opportunities, while resistance levels at $4318 and $4353 are noted for short-selling opportunities [13] - The market is undergoing a revaluation process, particularly affecting technology stocks, indicating broader market volatility [17][18]

Group 1 - Since the end of October, investor risk appetite has decreased, leading to pressure on global risk assets, with the S&P, Nasdaq, and Hang Seng Tech experiencing maximum declines of 5.1%, 7.3%, and 12.6% respectively [1] - The decline is attributed to concerns over the AI bubble, tight liquidity in the repurchase market, and fluctuating expectations regarding Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [1][4] - For technology stocks, which are sensitive to liquidity, breakthroughs in AI trends or significant improvements in liquidity are necessary for market recovery [4] Group 2 - The upcoming FOMC meeting on December 11 is crucial, as the market has priced in an 88% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut, but the tone of the Fed's statements and the dot plot will significantly influence market direction [4][5] - The Bank of Japan's potential rate hike on December 19 raises concerns about liquidity disruptions, reminiscent of last year's events [4][47] - The nomination of a new Federal Reserve chair, expected early next year, will also impact future rate cut expectations and market sentiment [20][21] Group 3 - Recent fluctuations in rate cut expectations have been driven by mixed signals from Fed officials, with a notable shift towards dovish comments in late November [5][8] - The current economic indicators, such as the ISM manufacturing PMI remaining in contraction for eight consecutive months and a significant drop in ADP employment figures, suggest a need for rate cuts to stimulate demand [8][10] - The Fed's ability to cut rates is supported by the current inflation data, which indicates that tariff impacts on inflation are less severe than previously feared [13][14] Group 4 - The Fed's balance sheet has decreased from a peak of $9 trillion to $6.5 trillion, and stopping the balance sheet reduction is expected to improve liquidity [32][33] - If the Fed resumes balance sheet expansion, it could provide additional liquidity to the market, which is crucial for risk asset performance [32][33] - The Treasury General Account (TGA) has also seen a reduction, which is expected to further release liquidity into the market [41][42] Group 5 - Concerns about the Bank of Japan's rate hike are heightened, but the impact is expected to be limited compared to last year's events due to different market conditions [47][50] - The potential for a liquidity shock exists if multiple negative factors converge, such as a hawkish Fed statement and disappointing employment data [50][57] - Overall, while short-term liquidity conditions are uncertain, a medium-term trend towards easing is anticipated, especially with the new Fed chair and potential balance sheet expansion [58]

Core Viewpoint - Since the end of October, investor risk appetite has decreased, leading to pressure on global risk assets, with the S&P, Nasdaq, and Hang Seng Tech experiencing maximum declines of 5.1%, 7.3%, and 12.6% respectively. This is attributed to concerns over the AI bubble, tight liquidity in the repurchase market, and fluctuating expectations regarding Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [2][4]. Group 1: Market Conditions and Liquidity - The current market, particularly for liquidity-sensitive tech stocks, requires either breakthroughs in AI industry trends or significant improvements in liquidity for any upward movement [4]. - A series of events affecting liquidity is anticipated in the coming month, including the FOMC meeting on December 11, where an 88% probability of a rate cut is priced in, but the market will be attentive to any hawkish statements or discussions about restarting balance sheet expansion [4][5]. - The Bank of Japan's interest rate decision on December 19 is also a concern, as it may echo last year's liquidity "storm" [4]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Rate Cuts - The expectation for a December rate cut is well established, with the focus on the dot plot and statements from the Fed. A return to neutral rates may require three cuts [5][7]. - Recent data indicates a need for rate cuts due to high current rates suppressing traditional demand, with the ISM manufacturing PMI in contraction for eight consecutive months and a significant drop in consumer confidence [7][11]. - The Fed's ability to cut rates is supported by recent inflation data, which suggests that tariff impacts on inflation are less significant than previously feared, with consumer exposure to tariffs at only 11% [13][15]. Group 3: New Fed Chair Nomination - The upcoming nomination of a new Fed chair is critical, with Kevin Hassett being the frontrunner. His potential policies may lean towards more dovish stances while maintaining some restraint to preserve the Fed's independence [20][21]. - If Hassett is appointed, he may advocate for more aggressive rate cuts than currently anticipated, which could stimulate the economy but also raise concerns about the Fed's independence [27][28]. - The market is closely monitoring how the new chair will balance the need for rate cuts with the preservation of the Fed's autonomy, as excessive dovishness could lead to fears of political influence over monetary policy [20][27]. Group 4: Market Implications - The potential for the Fed to restart balance sheet expansion could significantly enhance market liquidity and support financial assets. The cessation of balance sheet reduction and the potential for further expansion are expected to improve liquidity conditions [29][30]. - The overall financial liquidity in the U.S. is projected to expand by 7%-14% in 2026, which is likely to have a positive correlation with U.S. equities [37][41]. - The anticipated actions of the Fed and the new chair could lead to fluctuations in U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar, with short-term pressures expected but a long-term recovery likely if independence is maintained [54][55].

证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观周报 海外周报 20251207 12 月降息"已定"，如何看待明年美联储货币 政策节奏？ 2025 年 12 月 07 日 证券分析师 芦哲 执业证书：S0600524110003 luzhe@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 张佳炜 执业证书：S0600524120013 zhangjw@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 韦祎 执业证书：S0600525040002 weiy@dwzq.com.cn 研究助理 王茁 执业证书：S0600124120013 wangzhuo@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《货币政策：体系"科学稳健"不代 表取向"稳健"》 2025-12-06 《权益 ETF 系列：持续磨底，大级别 反攻行情仍需要保持耐心》 2025-12-06 东吴证券研究所 1 / 7 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 [Table_Summary] ◼ 核心观点：本周大幅不及预期的就业数据和基本符合预期的通胀数据令 市场基本定价美联储 12 月降息，美股再度上行；而日央行鹰派言论则 令日央行 12 月加息预期大幅抬升，带动美债利率上行。向前看，我们 认为未来市场对美 ...