要点 2025 年 5 月 2 日 公司研究 25Q1 业绩稳定增长，装机容量有望持续扩张 ——中国核电（601985.SH）2024 年年报暨 2025 年一季度报点评 事件：公司发布 2024 年年报及 2025 年一季度报。2024 年，公司实现营收 772.72 亿元，同比+3.09%；归母净利润 87.77 亿元，同比-17.38%。2025 年一季度， 公司实现营收 202.72亿元，同比+12.70%；归母净利润 31.37 亿元，同比+2.55%。 24 年核电发电量同比稍有下降，绿电发电量同比大增。公司 2024 年累计商运 发电量为 2163.49 亿千瓦时，同比+3.09%；上网电量为 2039.23 亿千瓦时，同 比+3.28%。其中，核电发电量 1831.22 亿千瓦时，同比-1.80%；上网电量 1712.60 亿千瓦时，同比-1.83%。主要原因系维修次数增多及受台风影响：秦山大修安 排同比增多，发电量同比-1.52%；海南核电受"摩羯"台风影响，配合电网线 路检修降功率，发电量同比-7.85%；福清 4 号机组小修，发电量同比-6.74%。 由于新能源在运装机规模增加，新能源发 ...

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 77.272 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3.09%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 8.777 billion yuan, a decrease of 17.38% [1] - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 20.273 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.70%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.137 billion yuan, an increase of 2.55% [1] Revenue and Profit Analysis - The average on-grid electricity prices for nuclear, solar, and wind power in 2024 were approximately 0.4151, 0.4466, and 0.3885 yuan per kilowatt-hour, respectively, with changes of +0.4, -0.09, and -0.03 yuan compared to 2023 [2] - The company's income tax expenses for 2024 were 6.011 billion yuan, a significant year-on-year increase of 68.34%, primarily due to the provision for value-added tax refunds affecting income tax expenses [2] Power Generation and Capacity - The total on-grid electricity for 2024 was 203.923 billion kilowatt-hours, a year-on-year increase of 3.28%, with nuclear power generation at 171.260 billion kilowatt-hours, a decrease of 1.83% [1] - The company has 18 nuclear power units under construction or awaiting approval as of December 31, 2024, with a total installed capacity of 20.641 million kilowatts [3] Future Growth Prospects - The company plans to commission the Zhangzhou Nuclear Power Unit 2 in 2025, with additional units expected to come online in 2026 and 2027, indicating strong growth potential [3] - The company forecasts net profits of 9.6 billion, 10.3 billion, and 11.4 billion yuan for 2025 to 2027, representing year-on-year growth rates of 9.42%, 7.32%, and 10.77%, respectively [3]

Group 1 - The approval of 10 new nuclear power units reflects China's support and confidence in the nuclear power sector, indicating a growing importance of nuclear energy in the country's energy structure [1][2] - The new projects, which include five nuclear power projects with a total of 10 units, are expected to drive over 200 billion yuan in investments, showcasing the potential for industry growth [2][4] - China has maintained a consistent approval pace for nuclear power projects, approving 10 or more units annually for four consecutive years, which is expected to have a strong positive impact on the national economy [4] Group 2 - China's nuclear power capacity and generation continue to grow, with the country holding the largest operational and under-construction nuclear power capacity globally, totaling 60.96 million kilowatts [3] - The global natural uranium supply is facing a significant gap, with 2022 production at 49,355 tons and demand at 65,651 tons, indicating a long-term upward trend in uranium prices due to increasing demand from the nuclear sector [5]

Core Viewpoint - The State Council of China has approved five new nuclear power projects, indicating a significant step in the country's nuclear energy development strategy [1][2]. Group 1: Project Details - The approved projects include the Zhejiang Sanmen Phase III, Fujian Xiapu Units 1 and 2, Shandong Haiyang Phase III, Guangdong Taishan Phase II, and Guangxi Fangchenggang Phase III, contributing to a total nuclear power capacity exceeding 120 million kilowatts [1][2]. - The Taishan and Fangchenggang projects are under China General Nuclear Power Group, with Taishan featuring two EPR units and Fangchenggang utilizing the "Hualong One" technology for its new units [1][2]. - The Sanmen project in Zhejiang plans to build six units with a total capacity of 7.4 million kilowatts, while the Xiapu project in Fujian will have five units with a total investment exceeding 110 billion yuan [2]. Group 2: Industry Impact - The nuclear power sector is expected to significantly reduce coal consumption and carbon emissions, with projections indicating a reduction of approximately 14 million tons of coal and 37 million tons of CO2 emissions in 2024 [3]. - China aims to enhance its nuclear safety culture and adhere to the highest global safety standards in nuclear power operations, ensuring the safety and efficiency of its nuclear projects [3]. - The government is also focusing on the development of advanced nuclear technologies, including fourth-generation reactors and small modular reactors, to optimize energy structure and address climate change [3].

行业点评报告 · 公用事业行业 国常会核准 10 合机组、看好核电长期成长性 "国务院常务会议审议决定核准一批核电项目"点评 核心观点 0 事件:4月27日,国务院常务会议审议决定核准一批核电项目。 2024 年 4 月 28 日 公用事业 推荐 维持评级 分析师 陶贻功 ☎：010-80927673 网: taoyigong_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130522030001 梁悠南 ☎：010-80927656 网: liangyounan_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130523070002 研究助理:马敏 区: mamin_yj@chinastock.com.cn 相对沪深 300 表现图 2024-04-25 公用事业 沪深300 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 2022-2025年,我国连续4年核准核电机组数量≥10 台。2011 年日本福 0 岛核泄漏后,国内核电审批速度放缓乃至暂停。2019年,核电审批重启, 2019-2024 年每年新核准核电机组 4、4、5、10、10、11 台。2025 年 4 ...

Core Viewpoint - The nuclear power industry in China is expected to experience significant growth, with a strong investment rating maintained by Zhongyuan Securities, highlighting the importance of nuclear power in future energy supply [1][3] Group 1: Project Approvals - On April 27, 2025, the State Council approved five nuclear power projects, totaling ten nuclear units, with China General Nuclear Power Group (CGN) and China National Nuclear Power (CNNP) being the primary beneficiaries [1] - CGN received approval for four units, including two units in Guangdong and two in Guangxi, all utilizing Hualong One technology, with capacities of 1.2 million kW and 1.208 million kW respectively [1] - CNNP was approved for two units in the Zhejiang Sanmen project, also using Hualong One technology, with a capacity of 1.215 million kW each [2] Group 2: Industry Growth and Capacity - Nuclear power is recognized as a stable energy source in China's new power system, with a utilization hour rate of 7,805.74 hours in 2024, contributing 4.73% to the national power generation [3] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" aims for a nuclear power installed capacity of approximately 70 million kW by 2025, with a focus on coastal projects [3] - As of April 27, 2025, China has approved 28 new nuclear projects since 2022, with a total of 102 operational, under construction, and approved units, making it the world's largest nuclear power capacity at 113 million kW [3] Group 3: Regional Developments - Currently, there are no nuclear projects approved or under construction in Henan Province, which is not included in the national nuclear construction plan due to cautious evaluation policies for inland nuclear development [4]

今天(4月27日)，中国核能行业协会发布《中国核能发展报告2025》蓝皮书。蓝皮书显示，截至目前， 我国在运、在建和核准建设的核电机组共102台、装机容量达到1.13亿千瓦，核电总体规模首次跃居世 界第一。目前，我国在建核电机组共28台，总装机容量达到3365万千瓦，在建机组装机容量连续18年保 持世界第一；我国商运核电机组达到58台，总装机容量达6096万千瓦。(央视新闻) ...

Core Viewpoint - The company's 2024 performance is below expectations, with revenue of 1.84 billion and net profit of 230 million, reflecting a modest year-on-year growth of 1.86% and 3.29% respectively, primarily due to capacity constraints and delayed project deliveries [1] Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company achieved revenue of 820 million, a year-on-year increase of 18.17%, and net profit of 110 million, up 23.84%, indicating a recovery in business during the second half of the year [1] - The revenue breakdown includes oil and petrochemical at 480 million, nuclear engineering valves at 840 million, other valves at 470 million, and forgings at 40 million, with respective year-on-year changes of -20.62%, +35.50%, -11.44%, and +1.60% [1] - The gross margin for the oil and petrochemical business improved significantly, with a year-on-year increase of 8.93% in H1 2024 and an overall annual increase of 3.59 percentage points [1] Regional Sales Performance - Revenue in the North China region surged by 108.06% year-on-year, while the East China region saw a decline of 26.29%, indicating the effectiveness of regional sales strategy adjustments [2] Growth Drivers - The nuclear power business is entering a strategic development phase, with nuclear engineering valve revenue reaching 839 million in 2024, a 35.50% increase, accounting for 45.50% of total revenue [3] - The company has a significant technological advantage in the nuclear valve sector, with key products meeting or exceeding import standards, leading to a steady increase in market share [3] - The approval of 11 new nuclear units in 2024 is expected to drive demand for nuclear valves, supported by a robust order backlog [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - Due to slight capacity constraints in 2024 and a production cycle of 1-2 years for nuclear products, revenue and net profit forecasts for 2025 have been reduced by 2.9% and 12.5% to 2.05 billion and 260 million respectively [4] - The target price has been adjusted down by 9.2% to 18.7, with a projected increase of 14.8% from the current price [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights China General Nuclear Power Corporation's (CGN) financial performance for 2024, reporting a revenue of 86.804 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.16%, and a net profit of 10.814 billion yuan, up 0.83% [1] - CGN plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.95 yuan per 10 shares (tax included) to all shareholders [1] - The total electricity generated by CGN-managed nuclear power plants in 2024 reached 227.284 billion kilowatt-hours, accounting for 54.38% of the national nuclear power generation [1] Group 2 - As of the end of 2024, CGN managed 28 operational nuclear power units and 16 under construction, with installed capacities of 31,798 megawatts and 19,406 megawatts, respectively, representing 45.02% of the national total for operational and under-construction nuclear power [1] - The average market electricity price for CGN in 2024 decreased by approximately 3.85% compared to 2023 due to a decline in overall market trading prices [1] - The nuclear power sector in China is expected to see more opportunities in the coming years, with the operational and under-construction scale of nuclear power reaching the world's largest [2]