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中国核电(601985):2024年年报暨2025年一季度报点评:25Q1业绩稳定增长,装机容量有望持续扩张
EBSCN· 2025-05-02 05:13
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a strong growth outlook due to continuous expansion in nuclear and renewable energy generation capacity [4][6]. Core Insights - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 77.27 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.09%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 17.38% to 8.77 billion yuan. For Q1 2025, revenue reached 20.27 billion yuan, up 12.70% year-on-year, with a net profit of 3.14 billion yuan, an increase of 2.55% [1][2]. - The total operational power generation in 2024 was 216.35 billion kWh, a 3.09% increase year-on-year, with nuclear power generation slightly declining by 1.80% to 183.12 billion kWh due to increased maintenance and typhoon impacts [2][3]. - The company is expanding its nuclear and renewable energy capacity significantly, with plans to commission 12 new nuclear units from 2025 to 2029 and a substantial increase in renewable energy capacity under construction [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of 77.27 billion yuan in 2024, with a growth rate of 3.09%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 8.77 billion yuan, reflecting a decline of 17.38% [1][5]. - For Q1 2025, the revenue was 20.27 billion yuan, marking a 12.70% increase year-on-year, while the net profit was 3.14 billion yuan, up 2.55% [1]. Power Generation - In 2024, the cumulative operational power generation was 2163.49 billion kWh, with nuclear power generation at 1831.22 billion kWh, down 1.80% year-on-year. Renewable energy generation saw a significant increase of 42.21% to 332.27 billion kWh [2][3]. - For Q1 2025, the company generated 494.82 billion kWh from nuclear and 102.60 billion kWh from renewable sources, representing year-on-year growth of 13.30% and 38.35%, respectively [2]. Capacity Expansion - The company plans to expand its nuclear capacity with 12 new units scheduled for commissioning from 2025 to 2029. Additionally, it has 14.36 million kW of renewable energy capacity under construction, a 47.60% increase year-on-year [3][4]. - The recent approval of two new nuclear units in Zhejiang adds 2.43 million kW to the company's capacity [3]. Profitability and Valuation - The report projects a decrease in net profit estimates for 2025 and 2026 due to expected declines in long-term electricity prices, with revised net profit forecasts of 10.44 billion yuan and 11.26 billion yuan, respectively [4][5]. - The estimated EPS for 2025 is 0.51 yuan, with a corresponding P/E ratio of 18 [4][5].