本公司具有中国证监会核准的期货交易咨询业务资格。本内容的观点和信息仅供国泰君安期货的专业投资者参考。本内容难以设置访问权限, 若给您造成不便，数请谅解。若您并非国泰君安期货客户中的专业投资者，请勿闻读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本内容不拘成具体业务的维 个，亦不应被视为任何投资、法律、会计或税务建议，且本公司不会因接收人收到本内容而观其为客户。本内容的信息来源于公开资外，本公 司对这些信息的准确性、完整性及未来变更的可能性不作任何保证。请您根据自身的风险承受能力作出我资决定并自主承担投资风险。不应凭 借本内容进行具体操作、本公司不对因使用本内容而造成的损失事担任何责任。除非另有说明。本公司拥有本内容的版权和/或某他相关知识产 权。未经本公司事先书面午可，任何单位或个人不得以任何方式复制、转载、引用、刊登、发表、发行、修改、翻译比报告的全部或部分内容。 国泰君安期货 风险 1、欧盟经济衰退;2、欧盟增加拍卖以筹措资金;3、排放上限弱化 图表1:欧盟排放配额(EUA)最新拍卖行情信息 CBAM证书价格 EUA拍卖量 拍卖收入 EUA拍卖价格 投标覆盖比 (万欧元) (欧元/吨) (欧元/吨) (万吨) 2026-0 ...

图表1:欧盟排放配额(EUA)最新拍卖行情信息 欧盟碳市场行情简报 (2026年第12期) 发布日期: 2026-01-20 关税威胁再起,EUA大幅回调 敢新 1、一级:拍卖价格87.34欧元/吨(-4.38%),投标覆盖比1.67; 行情 2、二级：EUA期货结算价88.14欧元/吨(-4.24%),成交6.59万手(3.39)。 信号强度:0(0为空仓,土1为偏多/空,土2为多/空) 策略 核心 利多:暂无新增。 逻辑 利空:特朗普提出格陵兰关税威胁,欧洲市场普跌。 风险 1、欧盟经济衰退;2、欧盟增加拍卖以筹措资金;3、排放上限弱化 ☆ 欲获取实时研究产品, 唐惠廷 国泰君安期货研究所 · 高级分析师 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0021216 请咨询对口销售。 联系电话:021-33037830 車要声明 | CBAM证书价格 | EUA拍卖价格 | | | EUA拍卖量 | 投标覆盖比 | 拍卖收入 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | (欧元/吨) | | (欧元/吨) | | (万吨) | | (万欧元) | | 2026-01-19 | 8 ...

Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - TTF's sharp decline led to a correction in EUA. The EUA futures settlement price was 87.25 euros/ton (-1.20%), and 27,800 lots were traded (1.20). The signal strength was 0 (0 for short position, ±1 for slightly long/short, ±2 for long/short). There were no new positive factors, while negative factors included the restart of the primary (auction) market on January 7, 2026, and the sharp decline of TTF affected by long - position profit - taking and technical adjustment [2] Summary by Directory Market Conditions - **Primary Market**: The auction price was not available, and the bid - to - cover ratio was also not available. The EUA auction volume on January 5, 2026, and January 2, 2026, was 0.00 million tons, and the auction revenue was 0 million euros [2][4] - **Secondary Market**: The EUA futures settlement price was 87.25 euros/ton, down 1.20% from the previous value. The trading volume was 27,800 lots (1.20). The spot settlement price on January 5, 2026, was 85.17 euros/ton, down 1.22% from January 2, 2026. The spot trading volume was 1,106 lots, an increase of 1.77% [2][5] Strategy - The signal strength was 0, indicating a short position. There were no new positive factors, and the negative factors were the restart of the primary (auction) market on January 7, 2026, and the sharp decline of TTF due to long - position profit - taking and technical adjustment [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The cold wave supports the strengthening of EUA prices [1] - There are no new positive factors, and the primary (auction) market will restart on January 7, 2026, which is a negative factor [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Conditions - Primary market: Auction price and bid - cover ratio are not available [1] - Secondary market: EUA futures settled at 88.31 euros/ton (up 1.08%), with a trading volume of 15,800 lots [1] EUA Auction Information - On January 2, 2026, the EUA auction volume was 0.00 million tons, the auction price was 84.60 euros/ton, CBAM certificate price was not available, auction revenue was not available, and the bid - cover ratio was 0 [5] - On December 31, 2025, the EUA auction volume was 0.00 million tons, the auction price was 84.60 euros/ton, CBAM certificate price was not available, auction revenue was not available, and the bid - cover ratio was 0 [5] EUA Futures and Spot Information - On December 31, 2025, the EUA futures settlement price was 87.37 euros/ton, and on January 2, 2026, it was 88.31 euros/ton (up 1.08%); the trading volume on January 2, 2026, was 1.58 million lots [5] - On December 31, 2025, the EUA spot settlement price was 85.24 euros/ton, and on January 2, 2026, it was 86.22 euros/ton (up 1.15%); the trading volume on January 2, 2026, was 778 lots [5] Strategy - Today's signal strength is 1 (0 means empty position, ±1 means bullish/bearish bias, ±2 means bullish/bearish) [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Policy softening impact is fermenting, and EUA continues to decline [1] - The recommended strategy is to go short on rallies with a light position [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Conditions - **Primary Market**: The EUA auction price is 80.07 euros/ton (-1.46%), and the bid - cover ratio is 1.53 [1] - **Secondary Market**: The EUA futures settlement price is 80.17 euros/ton (-1.62%), with a trading volume of 33,900 lots (0.72) [1] Strategy - The strategy is to go short on rallies with a light position [1] Factors Affecting the Market - **Positive Factors**: There are no new positive factors [1] - **Negative Factors**: TF prices have declined due to mild weather and stable supply; some EU legislators plan to push for a delay of ETS2 by at least three years [1] - **Other Factors**: The US is asking the EU to get rid of Russian gas faster and expand the "Vertical Corridor" connecting Greece, Bulgaria, Romania, and Ukraine [1] Market Data Charts - **Auction Market Data**: On November 6, 2025, the CBAM certificate price was 80.07 euros/ton, the EUA auction price was 78.20 euros/ton, the EUA auction volume was 3.268 million tons, the bid - cover ratio was 1.53, and the auction revenue was 261.67 million euros [3] - **Futures and Spot Market Data**: On November 6, 2025, the EUA futures settlement price was 80.17 euros/ton, the futures trading volume was 33,900 lots, and the futures position was 372,500 lots; the spot settlement price was 79.96 euros/ton, and the spot trading volume was 1903 lots [4]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - Investment fund long positions are continuously increasing, but the climate target has significantly softened, leading to a high - level decline of EUA [1] - The trading strategy is to short at high prices with a light position [1] 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Market Conditions - **Primary Market**: The auction price is not available, and the bid - cover ratio is also not available [1] - **Secondary Market**: The EUA futures settlement price is 81.49 euros/ton, a decrease of 1.00%, and the trading volume is 26,700 lots, a decrease of 0.80 [1] Strategy - Adopt the strategy of shorting at high prices with a light position [1] Core Logic - **Positive Factors**: The latest CoT report shows that last week, the net long positions of investment funds increased to 2.636 million tons; the liquefied natural gas tanker freight rate has soared significantly due to the approaching winter in the Northern Hemisphere, tight ship supply, and logistics delays [1] - **Negative Factors**: The EU Council has determined the medium - term climate target to reduce net greenhouse gas emissions by 90% compared to the 1990 level by 2040 (including 5% high - quality international carbon credits) and proposed to postpone the launch of EU ETS2 [1][2] Risk - The EU economy may experience a recession; the EU may increase auctions to raise funds; the emission cap may be weakened [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamental contradictions are not prominent, and EUA maintains a narrow - range oscillation. The recommended strategy is to lightly short at high prices. There are no new positive or negative factors [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Conditions - **Primary Market**: The auction price is 78.71 euros/ton (up 0.20%), and the bid - cover ratio is 1.6 [1] - **Secondary Market**: The EUA futures settlement price is 78.67 euros/ton (down 0.18%), with a trading volume of 22,200 lots (up 0.05) [1] Other Information - Multiple European truck manufacturers have written to the European Commission, requesting the relaxation of CO₂ emission targets for heavy - duty vehicles, stating that the current targets are "difficult to achieve" [1][2]

Group 1: Report Title and Date - The report is titled "EU Carbon Market Market Briefing (Issue 181, 2025)" and was released on October 21, 2025 [1][2] Group 2: Market Quotes Primary Market - The EUA auction price was 78.75 euros/ton with a 0.97% change, and the bid - cover ratio was 1.6. On October 20, 2025, the CBAM certificate price was 78.75 euros/ton, EUA auction price was 78.51 euros/ton, the auction volume was 326,800 tons, and the auction revenue was 25,736,000 euros [2][5] Secondary Market - The EUA futures settlement price was 79.82 euros/ton with a 0.45% change, and the trading volume was 25,300 lots with a - 0.69 change. The spot settlement price on October 20, 2025 was 79.15 euros/ton with a 0.47% change, and the spot trading volume was 361 lots with a 1.67% change [2][6] Group 3: Investment Strategy - The strategy is to lightly hold positions and sell high [2] Group 4: Core Logic - There are no new positive or negative factors. The European Council and the Energy/Environment Ministerial Meeting are being held this week, with the political focus on phasing out Russian fossil fuels and passing a climate strategy before COP30 [2][3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The EUA is struggling to rise and has not yet broken through the 80 - euro mark. The recommended strategy is to lightly short on rallies [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Conditions - **Primary Market**: The EUA auction price was 77.99 euros/ton with a 0.22% change, and the bid - cover ratio was 1.98 [1]. - **Secondary Market**: The EUA futures settlement price was 79.46 euros/ton, a - 0.06% change, and the trading volume was 32,200 lots with a 0.52 change [1]. Strategy - The recommended strategy is to lightly short on rallies [1]. Influencing Factors - **Positive**: The IMO net - zero framework vote has been postponed by one year, weakening the impact on the EU's shipping decarbonization framework [1]. - **Negative**: There are no new negative factors [1]. - **Other**: Qatar's energy minister stated that if the EU does not relax the Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive, Qatar will be unable to continue supplying LNG to Europe, and Qatar accounts for 12 - 14% of Europe's LNG supply. Russia demands that Ukraine hand over full control of Donetsk as a condition to end the war [1]. Data Tables - **Auction Data**: On October 17, 2025, the EUA auction price was 77.99 euros/ton, the auction volume was 1.691 million tons, the bid - cover ratio was 1.98, and the auction revenue was 131.88 million euros [2]. - **Futures and Spot Data**: On October 17, 2025, the EUA futures settlement price was 79.46 euros/ton, the trading volume was 32,200 lots, and the open interest was 360,200 lots. The spot settlement price was 79.15 euros/ton, and the trading volume was 896 lots [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - As the compliance period approaches, EUA continues to decouple from European energy and the stock market, showing an upward trend with fluctuations [1] - The strategy is to buy low and sell high, with a price range of €63 - 76 [1] - There are no new positive or negative factors [1] Group 3: Summary Based on Related Catalogs EUA Auction Information - On August 29, 2025, the EUA auction price was 71.30 euros/ton, the CBAM certificate price was 70.99 euros/ton, the auction volume was 161.45 million tons, the bid - coverage ratio was 1.82, and the auction revenue was 115.11 million euros [3] - On August 28, 2025, the EUA auction price was 71.18 euros/ton, the CBAM certificate price was 70.99 euros/ton, the auction volume was 324.45 million tons, the bid - coverage ratio was 1.39, and the auction revenue was 230.94 million euros [3] EUA Futures and Spot Market Information - On August 29, 2025, the EUA futures settlement price was 72.99 euros/ton (up 1.77%), the trading volume was 23,400 lots (down 0.12 lots), and the open interest was unchanged [1][4] - On August 29, 2025, the EUA spot settlement price was 72.46 euros/ton (up 1.78%), the trading volume was 2,644 lots, the container shipping carbon cost was 16.86 US dollars/TEU, and the freight cost ratio was 1.14% [4]