欧盟碳市场行情简报 (2025年第72期) 发布日期:2025-04-30 五一假期临近,EUA延续弱势 敢新 一级：拍卖价格63.55欧元/吨(-1.01%)，投标覆盖比1.45; 行情 2、二级：EUA期货收盘价64.85欧元/吨(-0.70%),成交2.49万手(0.14) 策略 短期震荡,震荡区间€60~68;中期偏强 利多:(1)特朗普签署行政令缓解汽车关税影响;(2)欧洲大陆风速下降将抑制风电产 出;3普京不顾美方压力,坚持要求在停战协议中加入乌东四州做为条件。 核心 利空:欧洲气温高于正常水平,太阳能发电量高,压制剩余负荷。 逻辑 其他:欧盟将于2027年实施ETS2（覆盖建筑与交通领域），首批EUA2期货合约将于 2025年5月6日上线交易。 风险 1、欧盟恢复俄气供应;2、欧盟增加拍卖以筹备资金:3、排放上限弱化 图表1:欧盟排放配额(EUA)最新拍卖行情信息 | EUA拍卖量 | | EUA拍卖价格 CBAM证书价格 | | 投标覆盖比 | 拍卖收入 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | (欧元/吨) | | (欧元/吨) | (万吨) | | ...

国泰君安期货 車要声明 欧盟碳市场行情简报 (2025年第71期) 发布日期:2025-04-29 伊比利亚半岛异常停电,EUA回调 敢新 1、一级：拍卖价格64.2欧元/吨(-2.56%)，投标覆盖比1.59; 行情 2、二级：EUA期货收盘价65.31欧元/吨(-1.69%)，成交2.36万手(-0.12) 策略 短期震荡偏强,震荡区间€60~68 利多：(1)英国和欧盟将建立伙伴关系作为对抗特朗普风波的堡垒;2市场预期欧洲央 行会有更多降息,欧股集体收涨。 核心 利空:(1)普京宣布自5月8日起在乌克兰单方面停火三天:(2欧洲气温高于正常水平, 逻辑 太阳能发电量高,压制剩余负荷:3法国推迟能源计划,因为极右翼全国集会提出反 对意见:(4)西班牙、葡萄牙遭遇大规模停电,源于气温波动引发电网振荡。 风险 1、欧盟恢复俄气供应;2、欧盟增加拍卖以筹备资金:3、排放上限弱化 图表1:欧盟排放配额(EUA)最新拍卖行情信息 EUA拍卖量 CBAM证书价格 EUA拍卖价格 拍卖收入 投标覆盖比 (万欧元) (欧元/吨) (万吨) (欧元/吨) 2025-04-28 64. 20 20836 324. 55 65. ...

欧盟碳市场行情简报 (2025年第67期) 本公司具有中国证监会被准的期货交易咨询业务资格。本内容的观点和信息仅供国泰君安邦货的专业投资者参考。本内容难以设置访问权限 给您造成不便，鼓清谅解。若您并非国泰君安期货客户中的专业投资者，清勿闻读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本内容不拘成具体业务的准介, 亦不应被视为任何投资、法律、会计或税务建议、且本公司不会固接收人收到本内容而犯案为客户。本内容的信息来源于公开资料。本公司对这 些信息的准确性、完整性及未来受更的可能性不作任何保证。请您根据自身的风险承受能力作出我资决定并且主承担投资风险，不应危情体内容 进行具体操作,本公司不对固使用本内容而造成的损失事担任何责任。除非另有说明,本公司拥有本内容的版权和/或其他相关知识产权。未经 本公司事先书面午可，任何单位或个人不得以任何方式复制、转载、引用、刊登、发表、发行、修改、翻译此报告的全部或部分内容。 发布日期:2025-04-23 EUA跟随TTF下跌 敢新 1、一级：拍卖价格63.3欧元/吨(-2.71%)，投标覆盖比1.51; 行情 2、二级:EUA期货收盘价64.39欧元/吨(-1.96%),成交2.62万手(0. ...

本公司具有中国近监会核准的期货交易咨询业务资格。本内容动观点和信息仅供国泰君安邦货的专业投资者参考。本内容难以设置访问权限, 给您造成不便，裁请谅解。若您并非国泰君安期货客户中的专业投资者，清勿闻读、订阅或接收任何招关信息。本内容不构成具体业务的准介, 亦不应被视为任何投资、法律、会计或税务建议、且本公司不会因接收人收到本内容而犯其为客户。本内容的信息来源于公开资料。本公司对这 些信息的准确性、完整性及未来变更的可能性不作任何保证。请您根据自身的风险承受能力作出我资决定并自主就担投资风险、不应危债的容 进行具体操作,本公司不对固使用本内容而造成的损失事担任何责任。除非另有说明,本公司拥有本内容的版权和/或其他相关知识严权。未经 本公司事先书面午可，任何单位或个人不得以任何方式复制、转载、引用、刊登、发表、发行、修改、翻译此报告的全部或部分内容。 国泰君安期货 欧盟碳市场行情简报 (2025年第63期) 发布日期:2025-04-15 欧元计价资产重获市场青睐，EUA持续反弹 敢新 1、一级：拍卖价格64.6欧元/吨(5.88%)，投标覆盖比1.59; 行情 2、二级：EUA期货收盘价66.56欧元/吨(2.3 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - EU stocks rebounded significantly, and EUA stopped falling and stabilized. Due to the increasing uncertainty risks, it is recommended to wait and see, with the lower support at €55 [1]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positively, the EU will hold a summit with China in July to commemorate the 50th anniversary of China - EU diplomatic relations, and EU stocks rebounded significantly. Negatively, the EU is considering Article 6 of the Paris Climate Agreement to achieve its 2040 climate goals, and the EU's environmental chief vows to reduce the implementation of green rules [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Conditions - **Primary Market**: The EUA auction price was 60.35 euros/ton (up 0.99%), and the bid - cover ratio was 1.62. On April 8, 2025, the auction volume was 324,550 tons, and the auction revenue was 195.87 million euros [1][3]. - **Secondary Market**: The EUA futures closing price was 62.75 euros/ton (up 0.56%), with a trading volume of 44,500 lots (down 2.17). The futures open interest on April 8, 2025, was 330,700 lots, and the spot settlement price was 61.73 euros/ton (up 0.99%) [1][4]. Influencing Factors - **Positive Factors**: The EU will hold a summit with China in July to commemorate the 50th anniversary of China - EU diplomatic relations, and EU stocks rebounded significantly [2]. - **Negative Factors**: The EU is considering Article 6 of the Paris Climate Agreement to achieve its 2040 climate goals, and the EU's environmental chief vows to reduce the implementation of green rules [2]. Risks (Excluded as per requirements, but for reference) - The EU resumes Russian gas supply, increases auctions to raise funds, and weakens the emission cap [3].

Report Title - EU Carbon Market Market Briefing (Issue No. 55, 2025) [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - EUA has re - linked with TTF, and its price has rebounded significantly. The report suggests interval operation, with a pressure level of €75 and a support level of €66 [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Conditions - **Primary Market**: The auction price is 66.71 euros/ton (-0.13%), and the bid coverage ratio is 1.55 [2] - **Secondary Market**: The closing price of EUA futures is 70.1 euros/ton (2.94%), and the trading volume is 35,600 lots (0.05) [2] Strategy - It is recommended to conduct interval operations, with a pressure level of €75 and a support level of €66 [2] Core Logic - **Likely Positive Factors**: Tensions between Russia and Ukraine may bring geopolitical risk premiums; new sanctions on Russia by US senators; European major stock indices closed higher [2] - **Likely Negative Factors**: Trump's "Freedom Day" tariff plan may suppress the European economy; the end of the heating season and increased renewable energy generation are unfavorable to carbon prices; the EU may weaken its 2040 climate goals; Finland will close a coal - fired power plant [2][3]