Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View - The fundamentals of the EU carbon market are strong due to the cold snap and supply tightening, but tariff risks need to be watched out for [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Conditions - In the primary market, the auction price was 85.93 euros/ton (-0.54%), and the bid coverage ratio was 1.18 [2] - In the secondary market, the EUA futures settlement price was 88.37 euros/ton (1.42%), and the trading volume was 26,000 lots (-1.11). The signal strength was 0 [2] Strategy - Bullish factor: The AGSI+ shows that on January 26, 2026, the weighted average filling rate of EU gas storage facilities was about 44.23%, significantly lower than the five - year average [2] - Bearish factor: No new bearish factors [2] - Other: The EU is striving to be consistent in the International Maritime Organization's net - zero framework, while major European shipping countries side with China or the US [2] Market Data - On January 27, 2026, the EUA auction volume was 23,309 tons, the auction price was 85.93 euros/ton, the CBAM certificate price was 271.25 euros/ton, the auction revenue was 85.92 million euros, and the bid coverage ratio was 1.18 [2] - On January 26, 2026, the EUA auction volume was 23,436 tons, the auction price was 86.40 euros/ton, the CBAM certificate price was 271.25 euros/ton, the auction revenue was 89.54 million euros, and the bid coverage ratio was 1.48 [2] - On January 27, 2026, the EUA futures settlement price was 88.37 euros/ton (up 1.42% from the previous day), the trading volume was 26,000 lots (-1.11), and the open interest increased by 0.01 lots. The spot settlement price was 85.23 euros/ton (up 1.44% from the previous day), and the spot trading volume was 1,108 lots (-691, down 1.94%) [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View The EU carbon market is facing a high-level decline in EUA due to lingering tariff concerns. The first-level auction price and second-level EUA futures settlement price both decreased, and the market is affected by potential events such as the European Parliament's review of the EU - US trade agreement and the plan to increase North Sea turbine deployment [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Conditions - First-level: The auction price was 86.4 euros/ton, a decrease of 1.27%, and the bid coverage ratio was 1.48 [2]. - Second-level: The EUA futures settlement price was 87.13 euros/ton, a decrease of 1.44%, and the trading volume was 37,000 lots, an increase of 0.93 [2]. - The EUA spot settlement price was 85.23 euros/ton, a decrease of 1.42%, and the trading volume was 1,799 lots, a decrease of 4,767 lots [3]. Strategy - There are no new bullish or bearish factors [2]. Core Logic - The European Parliament will re - examine the EU - US trade agreement next week [2]. - Europe has agreed to significantly increase the deployment of North Sea turbines, aiming to reach 100 gigawatts by 2050 [2].

Report Information - Report Title: EU Carbon Market Market Briefing (Issue 17, 2026) [1] - Release Date: January 29, 2026 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core View - The EU carbon market is facing tariff concerns, and the EU Allowance (EUA) price has fallen from its high. The first - level auction price and the second - level EUA futures settlement price both decreased, with decreases of 1.27% and 1.44% respectively [2] Content Summary by Directory Market Conditions - First - level: The auction price was 86.4 euros/ton, a decrease of 1.27%, and the bid coverage ratio was 1.48 [2] - Second - level: The EUA futures settlement price was 87.13 euros/ton, a decrease of 1.44%, and the trading volume was 37,000 lots, an increase of 0.93 [2] - EUA spot settlement price decreased by 1.42% to 85.23 euros/ton, and the spot trading volume was 1,799 lots, a decrease of 4,767 lots [3] Strategy and Core Logic - Bullish factors: No new bullish factors [2] - Bearish factors: No new bearish factors [2] - Other factors: The European Parliament will re - review the EU - US trade agreement next week; Europe has agreed to significantly increase the deployment of North Sea turbines, aiming to reach 100 gigawatts by 2050 [2]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not available in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - The EU carbon market is facing a situation where the EU Allowance (EUA) has fallen from its high due to lingering concerns about tariffs [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Conditions - **Primary Market**: The auction price is 86.4 euros/ton, a decrease of 1.27%, and the bid - cover ratio is 1.48 [2]. - **Secondary Market**: The EUA futures settlement price is 87.13 euros/ton, a decrease of 1.44%, with a trading volume of 37,000 lots (increase of 0.93 lots). The spot settlement price is 85.23 euros/ton, a decrease of 1.42%, and the spot trading volume is 1,799 lots (decrease of 4,767 lots), and the container shipping carbon cost is 30.34 US dollars/TEU, accounting for 1.90% of the freight [2][3]. Strategy Core Logic - **Positive Factors**: No new positive factors [2]. - **Negative Factors**: No new negative factors [2]. - **Other Factors**: The European Parliament will re - examine the EU - US trade agreement next week, and Europe has agreed to significantly increase the deployment of North Sea turbines, aiming to reach 100 gigawatts by 2050 [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View - The tariff storm has subsided, and EUA has returned to the fundamental situation [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Conditions - The primary market: The auction price is 87.51 euros/ton (1.11%), and the bid coverage ratio is 2.42 [2] - The secondary market: The EUA futures settlement price is 88.4 euros/ton (-0.08%), and the trading volume is 27,700 lots (-2.39) [2] Strategy - Signal strength: 1 (0 means short position, ±1 means bullish/bearish, ±2 means long/short) - Bullish factors: The continuous cold weather in northern and central Europe has pushed up the heating demand, the regional competition of LNG has intensified, and TTF is operating strongly [3] - Bearish factors: No new ones [3] Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including EUA's latest auction market information, auction price trend - seasonal chart, auction bid coverage ratio - seasonal chart, EUA futures and spot market information, EUA futures and spot prices and basis, and December contract position - seasonal chart [5][6]

Report Summary - **Report Title**: EU Carbon Market Briefing (Issue 16, 2026) [1] - **Release Date**: January 26, 2026 [1] - **Reporting Company**: Guotai Junan Futures [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - The EU carbon market has returned to fundamentals after the tariff storm subsided [1] Summary by Directory Market Conditions - **Primary Market**: The EUA auction price was 87.51 euros/ton, a 1.11% increase, and the bid - to - cover ratio was 2.42 [2] - **Secondary Market**: The EUA futures settlement price was 88.4 euros/ton, a 0.08% decrease, and the trading volume was 27,700 lots, a 2.39% decrease [2] Strategy - **Signal Strength**: 1 (0 means short position, ±1 means bullish/bearish bias, ±2 means long/short) [3] - **Bullish Factors**: Cold weather in northern and central Europe has continuously increased heating demand, intensifying LNG regional competition, and the TTF is running strongly [3] - **Bearish Factors**: No new bearish factors [3] Charts - **Chart 1**: Shows EUA auction price, CBAM certificate price, EUA auction volume, bid - to - cover ratio, and auction revenue on January 23 and 22, 2026 [5] - **Chart 2**: EUA auction price seasonal trend chart [5] - **Chart 3**: EUA auction bid - to - cover ratio seasonal trend chart [5] - **Chart 4**: EUA futures and spot market information including futures settlement price, trading volume, open interest, and spot settlement price, trading volume on January 22 and 23, 2026 [6] - **Chart 5**: EUA futures and spot prices and basis [6] - **Chart 6**: Seasonal chart of December contract open interest [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The US withdraws tariff threats, TTF surges, and EUA rebounds and recovers. The first - level auction price is 83.55 euros/ton (-1.22%), and the bid coverage ratio is 2.13. The second - level EUA futures settlement price is 87.06 euros/ton (2.47%), with a trading volume of 59,500 lots (-3.55). The strategy signal strength is 0 [1]. - There are two main positive factors: the latest CoT report shows that investment funds' net long positions increased by 440,000 tons last week, mainly due to short - covering; Trump reached a satisfactory agreement framework and made concessions on threatening to seize the island by force and imposing tariffs on European allies. There are no new negative factors [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs EUA Auction Information - On January 21, 2026, the EUA auction volume was 152,450 tons, the auction price was 83.55 euros/ton, the bid coverage ratio was 2.13, and the auction revenue was 127.37 million euros. On January 20, 2026, the EUA auction volume was 271,250 tons, the auction price was 84.58 euros/ton, the bid coverage ratio was 1.67, and the auction revenue was 229.42 million euros [2]. EUA Futures and Spot Information - Futures: On January 21, 2026, the futures settlement price was 87.06 euros/ton (2.47% increase), the trading volume was 59,500 lots (-3.55 decrease), and the open interest was 351,200 lots (no change). - Spot: On January 21, 2026, the spot settlement price was 85.18 euros/ton (2.53% increase), and the trading volume was 3,353 lots (1,675 lots decrease) [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The EU carbon market has seen a significant correction in EUA prices due to the resurgence of tariff threats. Trump's proposed Greenland tariff threat has led to a general decline in the European market, and there are no new positive factors [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Conditions - **Primary Market**: The EUA auction price was 87.34 euros/ton, a decrease of 4.38%, with a bid - cover ratio of 1.67. On January 19, 2026, the auction volume was 271.25 tons, and the auction revenue was 23,691 million euros [2][4]. - **Secondary Market**: The EUA futures settlement price was 88.14 euros/ton, a decrease of 4.24%, and the trading volume was 65,900 lots. The EUA spot settlement price was 86.16 euros/ton, a decrease of 4.25%, and the trading volume was 1,047 lots [2][4]. Strategy Core Logic - **Positive Factors**: There are no new positive factors [2]. - **Negative Factors**: Trump's proposed Greenland tariff threat has led to a general decline in the European market [2].

Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - TTF's sharp decline led to a correction in EUA. The EUA futures settlement price was 87.25 euros/ton (-1.20%), and 27,800 lots were traded (1.20). The signal strength was 0 (0 for short position, ±1 for slightly long/short, ±2 for long/short). There were no new positive factors, while negative factors included the restart of the primary (auction) market on January 7, 2026, and the sharp decline of TTF affected by long - position profit - taking and technical adjustment [2] Summary by Directory Market Conditions - **Primary Market**: The auction price was not available, and the bid - to - cover ratio was also not available. The EUA auction volume on January 5, 2026, and January 2, 2026, was 0.00 million tons, and the auction revenue was 0 million euros [2][4] - **Secondary Market**: The EUA futures settlement price was 87.25 euros/ton, down 1.20% from the previous value. The trading volume was 27,800 lots (1.20). The spot settlement price on January 5, 2026, was 85.17 euros/ton, down 1.22% from January 2, 2026. The spot trading volume was 1,106 lots, an increase of 1.77% [2][5] Strategy - The signal strength was 0, indicating a short position. There were no new positive factors, and the negative factors were the restart of the primary (auction) market on January 7, 2026, and the sharp decline of TTF due to long - position profit - taking and technical adjustment [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The cold wave supports the strengthening of EUA prices [1] - There are no new positive factors, and the primary (auction) market will restart on January 7, 2026, which is a negative factor [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Conditions - Primary market: Auction price and bid - cover ratio are not available [1] - Secondary market: EUA futures settled at 88.31 euros/ton (up 1.08%), with a trading volume of 15,800 lots [1] EUA Auction Information - On January 2, 2026, the EUA auction volume was 0.00 million tons, the auction price was 84.60 euros/ton, CBAM certificate price was not available, auction revenue was not available, and the bid - cover ratio was 0 [5] - On December 31, 2025, the EUA auction volume was 0.00 million tons, the auction price was 84.60 euros/ton, CBAM certificate price was not available, auction revenue was not available, and the bid - cover ratio was 0 [5] EUA Futures and Spot Information - On December 31, 2025, the EUA futures settlement price was 87.37 euros/ton, and on January 2, 2026, it was 88.31 euros/ton (up 1.08%); the trading volume on January 2, 2026, was 1.58 million lots [5] - On December 31, 2025, the EUA spot settlement price was 85.24 euros/ton, and on January 2, 2026, it was 86.22 euros/ton (up 1.15%); the trading volume on January 2, 2026, was 778 lots [5] Strategy - Today's signal strength is 1 (0 means empty position, ±1 means bullish/bearish bias, ±2 means bullish/bearish) [1]