交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沥青期货早报 2026年2月3日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 3 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看，根据隆众，2026年2月份国内地炼沥青排产量为102.3万吨，环比降幅3.30%。本周国内石油沥青样 本产能利用率为27.325%，环比减少1.20个百分点，全国样本企业出货21.445万吨，环比减少5.80%,样本企业产 量为45.6万吨，环比减少4.20%,样本企业装置检修量预估为102.2万吨，环比增加1.79%,本周炼厂有所减产，降 低供应压力。下周或将减少供给压力。 需求端来看，重交沥青开工率为25.5%，环比减少0.05个百分点，低于历史平均水平；建筑沥青开工率为3.3%， 环比减少0.50个百分点，低于历史平均水平；改性沥青开工率 ...

证券代码：839979 沥青期货周报 2026年01月26日-01月30日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 1 回顾与展望 2 基本面分析 3 技术面分析 2 1 回顾与展望 3 回顾与展望 本周03合约为上涨态势,周一开盘价为3150元/吨,周五收盘价为3424元/吨，周涨幅为8.70%。 供给端来看，根据隆众，2026年2月份国内地炼沥青排产量为102.3万吨，环比降幅3.30%。本周国内石 油沥青样本产能利用率为27.325%，环比减少1.20个百分点，全国样本企业出货21.445万吨，环比减少 5.80%,样本企业产量为45.6万吨，环比减少4.20%,样本企业装置检修量预估为102.2万吨，环比增加1.79% 。本周炼厂有所减产，降低供应压力。下周或将减少供给压力。 需求端来看,重交沥青开工率为25.5%,环比减少0 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information regarding the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The supply pressure of asphalt is high, and the demand is weak. The overall demand is lower than the historical average level, and the cost support is expected to weaken in the short - term. It is predicted that the asphalt 2603 will fluctuate in the range of 2980 - 3036 [7][8]. - The factors affecting the asphalt market include supply - side production increases, demand - side sluggishness, cost - side weakening of crude oil support, and inventory accumulation [7][8]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. The positive factor is that the relatively high cost of crude oil provides some support, while the negative factors are the insufficient demand for high - priced goods and the overall downward demand with an increasing expectation of economic recession in Europe and the United States [10][11]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply Side**: In December 2025, the total planned asphalt production was 2.158 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.24%. The weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt samples was 33.1376%, a month - on - month increase of 3.955 percentage points. The output of sample enterprises was 553,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 13.55%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment was 951,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.41%. Refineries increased production this week, increasing supply pressure, and it is expected to increase next week [7]. - **Demand Side**: The开工 rate of heavy - traffic asphalt was 31.3%, a month - on - month increase of 0.13 percentage points, lower than the historical average; the开工 rate of building asphalt was 6.6%, unchanged from the previous month, lower than the historical average; the开工 rate of modified asphalt was 7.1022%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.56 percentage points, higher than the historical average; the开工 rate of road - modified asphalt was 20%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.00 percentage points, higher than the historical average; the开工 rate of waterproofing membranes was 25%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.00 percentage points, lower than the historical average. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average [7]. - **Cost**: The daily asphalt processing profit was - 384.53 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 1.30%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 655.87 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 25.47%. The asphalt processing loss increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking decreased. Crude oil weakened, and it is expected that the support will weaken in the short - term [8]. - **Basis**: On December 29, the spot price in Shandong was 2,920 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 03 contract was - 92 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [8]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory was 741,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.78%; the in - plant inventory was 597,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.51%; the port diluted asphalt inventory was 470,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 74.07%. Social inventory, in - plant inventory, and port inventory continued to accumulate [8]. - **Market**: MA20 was upward, and the futures price of the 03 contract closed above MA20 [8]. - **Main Position**: The main position was net short, and the short position decreased [8]. - **Expectation**: Refineries have increased production recently, increasing supply pressure. Affected by the off - season, demand is difficult to boost, and the overall demand is lower than expected and sluggish; inventory remains flat; crude oil weakens, and cost support weakens in the short - term. It is expected that the market will fluctuate narrowly in the short - term, and asphalt 2603 will fluctuate in the range of 2980 - 3036 [8]. 3.2 Asphalt Futures Market - **Basis Trend**: The report presents the historical trends of the Shandong and East China basis of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [16][17]. - **Spread Analysis** - **Main Contract Spread**: The report shows the historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [19][20]. - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: The report presents the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil from 2020 to 2025 [22][23]. - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: The report shows the historical crack spreads of asphalt against SC, WTI, and Brent crude oils from 2020 to 2025 [25][26][27]. - **Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend**: The report presents the historical price ratio trends of asphalt against SC crude oil and fuel oil from 2020 to 2025 [29][31]. 3.3 Asphalt Spot Market - The report shows the historical price trend of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [32][33]. 3.4 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis** - **Asphalt Profit**: The report presents the historical profit trend of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [35][36]. - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend**: The report shows the historical spread trend between coking and asphalt profits from 2020 to 2025 [38][40]. - **Supply Side** - **Shipment Volume**: The report presents the historical weekly shipment volume of asphalt small - sample enterprises from 2020 to 2025 [42][43]. - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: The report shows the historical domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2025 [44][45]. - **Production**: The report presents the historical weekly and monthly production of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [47][48]. - **Marine Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Production Trend**: The report shows the historical price trend of Marine oil and the monthly production trend of Venezuelan crude oil from 2018 to 2025 [51][53]. - **Local Refinery Asphalt Production**: The report presents the historical production of local refinery asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [54][55]. - **Capacity Utilization Rate**: The report shows the historical weekly capacity utilization rate of asphalt from 2021 to 2025 [57][58]. - **Estimated Maintenance Loss**: The report presents the historical estimated maintenance loss trend of asphalt from 2018 to 2025 [60][61]. - **Inventory** - **Exchange Warehouse Receipts**: The report shows the historical exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and in - plant inventory) of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [63][64][65]. - **Social Inventory and In - Plant Inventory**: The report presents the historical social inventory (70 samples) and in - plant inventory (54 samples) of asphalt from 2022 to 2025 [67][68]. - **In - Plant Inventory Inventory Ratio**: The report shows the historical in - plant inventory inventory ratio of asphalt from 2018 to 2025 [70][71]. - **Import and Export Situation** - **Export and Import Trends**: The report presents the historical export and import trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [73][74]. - **South Korean Asphalt Import Spread Trend**: The report shows the historical spread trend of South Korean asphalt imports from 2020 to 2025 [77][78]. - **Demand Side** - **Petroleum Coke Production**: The report presents the historical production of petroleum coke from 2019 to 2025 [79][80]. - **Apparent Consumption**: The report shows the historical apparent consumption of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [82][83]. - **Downstream Demand** - **Highway Construction and Transportation Fixed - Asset Investment**: The report presents the historical trends of highway construction and transportation fixed - asset investment from 2020 to 2025 [85][86]. - **New Local Special Bonds and Infrastructure Investment Completion**: The report shows the historical trends of new local special bonds and the year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure investment completion from 2019 to 2025 [87]. - **Downstream Machinery Demand**: The report presents the historical sales trends of asphalt concrete pavers, the monthly working hours of excavators, and the sales trends of domestic excavators and road rollers from 2019 to 2025 [89][90][92]. - **Asphalt Capacity Utilization Rate** - **Heavy - Traffic Asphalt Capacity Utilization Rate**: The report shows the historical capacity utilization rate of heavy - traffic asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [94][95]. - **Asphalt Capacity Utilization Rate by Use**: The report presents the historical capacity utilization rates of building asphalt and modified asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [97][98]. - **Downstream Capacity Utilization Situation**: The report shows the historical capacity utilization rates of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [99][100][102]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The report presents the monthly supply - demand balance sheet of asphalt from 2024 to 2025, including monthly production, imports, exports, downstream demand, social inventory, in - plant inventory, and diluted asphalt port inventory [104][105].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - side pressure may be reduced as refineries have cut production recently. The total planned production volume of asphalt in December 2025 is 2.158 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 3.24%. The sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt this week is 29.1826%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.72 percentage points [7]. - The demand is currently below the historical average. The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 is 27.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.01 percentage points; the construction asphalt开工率 is 6.6%, unchanged month - on - month; the modified asphalt开工率 is 7.6609%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.32 percentage points; the road - modified asphalt开工率 is 24%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.00 percentage points; the waterproofing membrane开工率 is 27%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.10 percentage points [7]. - The cost support may weaken in the short term as the daily processing profit of asphalt is - 290 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 14.00%, and the weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries is 880.1214 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 10.36%. Also, the crude oil price has weakened [8]. - The asphalt futures price is expected to fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with the asphalt 2602 contract fluctuating between 2967 - 3023 [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - **Supply - side**: The total planned production of asphalt in December 2025 is 2.158 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 3.24%. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt is 29.1826%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.72 percentage points. The total sample enterprise output is 487,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.40%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment is 955,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.17%. Refineries have cut production this week, reducing supply pressure, and it is expected to further decrease next week [7]. - **Demand - side**: The current demand is below the historical average. The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 is 27.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.01 percentage points; the construction asphalt开工率 is 6.6%, unchanged month - on - month; the modified asphalt开工率 is 7.6609%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.32 percentage points; the road - modified asphalt开工率 is 24%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.00 percentage points; the waterproofing membrane开工率 is 27%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.10 percentage points [7]. - **Cost - side**: The daily processing profit of asphalt is - 290 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 14.00%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries is 880.1214 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 10.36%. The asphalt processing loss has decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking has decreased. The crude oil price has weakened, and it is expected that the support will weaken in the short term [8]. - **Other aspects**: On December 25th, the Shandong spot price is 2920 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 02 contract is - 75 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. The social inventory is 714,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.97%; the in - plant inventory is 594,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.51%; the port diluted asphalt inventory is 270,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 42.55%. The main positions are net short, and the short positions have increased. It is expected that the refinery's recent production scheduling cuts will reduce supply pressure. Affected by the off - season, the demand boost is limited, the overall demand is lower than expected and sluggish, the inventory remains flat, the cost support of crude oil weakens in the short term, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with the asphalt 2602 contract fluctuating between 2967 - 3023 [8]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - The report shows the price, basis, inventory, production, and other data of different asphalt contracts (01 - 12 contracts), as well as the price changes and production data of different types of asphalt (such as heavy - traffic asphalt, construction asphalt, modified asphalt), and the inventory data of different regions and types of inventories (social inventory, in - plant inventory, port diluted asphalt inventory) [15]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market Analysis - **Basis trend**: It presents the historical trends of the Shandong and East China basis of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [18][20]. - **Spread analysis**: - **Main contract spread**: It shows the historical trends of the spreads between the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contracts of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [22][23]. - **Asphalt - crude oil price trend**: It shows the historical trends of the prices of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil from 2020 to 2025 [26]. - **Crude oil cracking spread**: It shows the historical trends of the cracking spreads of asphalt and different types of crude oil (SC, WTI, Brent) from 2020 to 2025 [28][29]. - **Asphalt - crude oil - fuel oil price ratio trend**: It shows the historical trends of the price ratios of asphalt to SC crude oil and fuel oil from 2020 to 2025 [33]. 3.4 Asphalt Spot Market Analysis - It shows the historical trend of the price of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [34][35]. 3.5 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit analysis**: - **Asphalt profit**: It shows the historical trend of asphalt profit from 2019 to 2025 [36][37]. - **Coking - asphalt profit spread trend**: It shows the historical trend of the profit spread between coking and asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [39][41]. - **Supply - side analysis**: - **Shipment volume**: It shows the historical trends of the weekly shipment volumes of asphalt small - sample enterprises from 2020 to 2025 [43][44]. - **Diluted asphalt port inventory**: It shows the historical trend of the domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2025 [45][46]. - **Production volume**: It shows the historical trends of the weekly and monthly production volumes of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [48][49]. - **Maya crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production trend**: It shows the historical trends of the Maya crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production from 2018 to 2025 [52][53]. - **Local refinery asphalt production**: It shows the historical trend of the local refinery asphalt production from 2019 to 2025 [56][57]. - **Capacity utilization rate**: It shows the historical trends of the asphalt capacity utilization rate from 2021 to 2025 [59][60]. - **Estimated maintenance loss volume**: It shows the historical trend of the estimated maintenance loss volume of asphalt from 2018 to 2025 [61][62]. - **Inventory analysis**: - **Exchange warehouse receipts**: It shows the historical trends of the exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and in - plant inventory) of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [64][67]. - **Social inventory and in - plant inventory**: It shows the historical trends of the social inventory (70 samples) and in - plant inventory (54 samples) of asphalt from 2022 to 2025 [68][69]. - **In - plant inventory inventory ratio**: It shows the historical trend of the in - plant inventory inventory ratio of asphalt from 2018 to 2025 [71][72]. - **Import - export situation**: It shows the historical trends of asphalt exports, imports, and the import spread of South Korean asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [74][75][78]. - **Demand - side analysis**: - **Petroleum coke production**: It shows the historical trend of petroleum coke production from 2019 to 2025 [80][81]. - **Apparent consumption**: It shows the historical trend of asphalt apparent consumption from 2019 to 2025 [83][84]. - **Downstream demand**: - **Highway construction and fixed - asset investment in transportation**: It shows the historical trends of highway construction and fixed - asset investment in transportation, new local special bonds, and the year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure investment completion from 2019 to 2025 [86][87][88]. - **Downstream machinery demand**: It shows the historical trends of the sales volume of asphalt concrete pavers, the monthly working hours of excavators, the domestic sales volume of excavators, and the sales volume of road rollers from 2019 to 2025 [90][91][93]. - **Asphalt开工率**: - **Heavy - traffic asphalt开工率**: It shows the historical trend of heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 from 2019 to 2025 [95][96]. - **Asphalt开工率 by use**: It shows the historical trends of construction asphalt开工率 and modified asphalt开工率 from 2019 to 2025 [98][99]. - **Downstream开工情况**: It shows the historical trends of the开工率 of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt, and shoe - material TPR from 2019 to 2025 [100][101][103]. - **Supply - demand balance sheet**: It shows the monthly supply - demand balance sheet of asphalt from September 2024 to December 2025, including production, import, export, downstream demand, social inventory, in - plant inventory, and diluted asphalt port inventory [105][106].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - The supply side shows that the planned asphalt production in December 2025 is 2.158 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.24%. The refineries have reduced production recently, alleviating supply pressure. The demand side is affected by the off - season, with overall demand falling short of expectations and remaining sluggish. The inventory situation is neutral, with social inventory decreasing, factory inventory increasing, and port inventory decreasing. The cost is supported by the strengthening of crude oil in the short term. It is expected that the asphalt market will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, and the 2602 contract will fluctuate in the range of 2967 - 3025 [7][8]. - The positive factors include the relatively high cost of crude oil providing some support. The negative factors are the insufficient demand for high - priced goods, the overall downward trend of demand, and the increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States. The main logic is that the supply pressure remains high, and the demand recovery is weak [11][12][13]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply**: In December 2025, the total planned asphalt production is 2.158 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.24%. The weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt samples is 29.1826%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.72 percentage points. The output of sample enterprises is 487,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.40%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise devices is 955,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.17%. Refineries have reduced production, and supply pressure may be reduced next week [7]. - **Demand**: The开工 rate of heavy - traffic asphalt is 27.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.01 percentage points, lower than the historical average; the开工 rate of building asphalt is 6.6%, unchanged from the previous month, lower than the historical average; the开工 rate of modified asphalt is 7.6609%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.32 percentage points, lower than the historical average; the开工 rate of road - modified asphalt is 24%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.00 percentage points, higher than the historical average; the开工 rate of waterproofing membranes is 27%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.10 percentage points, lower than the historical average. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average [7]. - **Cost**: The daily asphalt processing profit is - 290 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 14.00%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries is 880.1214 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 10.36%. The asphalt processing loss has decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking has decreased. With the strengthening of crude oil, short - term support is expected to strengthen [8]. - **Basis**: On December 24, the spot price in Shandong was 2920 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 02 contract was - 76 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. It is bearish [8]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory is 714,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.97%; the factory inventory is 594,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.51%; the port diluted asphalt inventory is 270,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 42.55%. Social inventory is continuously decreasing, factory inventory is continuously increasing, and port inventory is continuously decreasing. It is neutral [8]. - **Market**: MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 02 contract closes above MA20. It is neutral [8]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and the short position is decreasing. It is bearish [8]. - **Expectation**: Refineries have recently reduced production, reducing supply pressure. Affected by the off - season, demand is sluggish and fails to meet expectations. Inventory remains stable. With the strengthening of crude oil, cost support has strengthened in the short term. It is expected that the market will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, and the 2602 contract of asphalt will fluctuate in the range of 2967 - 3025 [8]. 3.2 Asphalt Futures Market - **Basis Trend**: The report presents the historical basis trends of Shandong and East China asphalt from 2020 to 2025, showing the price relationship between the spot and futures [19][20][21]. - **Spread Analysis** - **Main Contract Spread**: The report shows the historical spread trends of asphalt 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contracts from 2020 to 2025 [23][24]. - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: It presents the price trends of asphalt, Brent oil, and West Texas oil from 2020 to 2025, reflecting the relationship between asphalt and crude oil prices [26][27]. - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: It shows the crack spreads of asphalt and different types of crude oil (SC, WTI, Brent) from 2020 to 2025 [28][29][30]. - **Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend**: It presents the price ratio trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil from 2020 to 2025 [32][34]. 3.3 Asphalt Spot Market - **Regional Market Price Trend**: It shows the price trend of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [35][36]. 3.4 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis** - **Asphalt Profit**: It presents the historical profit trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [38][39]. - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend**: It shows the historical spread trends of coking - asphalt profits from 2020 to 2025 [41][42][43]. - **Supply - Side Analysis** - **Shipment Volume**: It shows the weekly shipment volume trends of asphalt small - sample enterprises from 2020 to 2025 [45][46]. - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: It presents the historical inventory trends of domestic diluted asphalt ports from 2021 to 2025 [47][48]. - **Production Volume**: It shows the weekly and monthly production volume trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [50][51]. - **Marey Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Production Trend**: It presents the price trend of Marey crude oil and the monthly production trend of Venezuelan crude oil from 2018 to 2025 [54][55]. - **Local Refinery Asphalt Production**: It shows the historical production volume trends of local refinery asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [58][59]. - **开工 Rate**: It presents the weekly开工 rate trends of asphalt from 2021 to 2025 [61][62]. - **Maintenance Loss Estimation**: It shows the historical trends of maintenance loss estimation from 2018 to 2025 [63][64]. - **Inventory Analysis** - **Exchange Warehouse Receipt**: It presents the historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and factory inventory) from 2019 to 2025 [66][67][68]. - **Social Inventory and Factory Inventory**: It shows the historical trends of social inventory (70 samples) and factory inventory (54 samples) of asphalt from 2022 to 2025 [70][71]. - **Factory Inventory - Inventory Ratio**: It presents the historical trends of the factory inventory - inventory ratio from 2018 to 2025 [73][74]. - **Import - Export Situation**: It shows the historical export and import trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2025, as well as the import price spread trend of South Korean asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [76][77][80]. - **Demand - Side Analysis** - **Petroleum Coke Production**: It shows the historical production volume trends of petroleum coke from 2019 to 2025 [82][83]. - **Apparent Consumption**: It presents the historical apparent consumption trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [85][86]. - **Downstream Demand** - **Highway Construction and Fixed - Asset Investment in Transportation**: It shows the historical trends of highway construction and fixed - asset investment in transportation from 2020 to 2025 [88][89]. - **New Local Special Bonds and Infrastructure Investment Completion Rate**: It presents the historical trends of new local special bonds from 2019 to 2025 and the year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure investment completion from 2020 to 2024 [90]. - **Downstream Machinery Demand**: It shows the historical sales volume trends of asphalt concrete pavers, the monthly working hours of excavators, the sales volume trends of domestic excavators, and the sales volume trends of road rollers from 2020 to 2025 [92][93][95]. - **Asphalt开工 Rate** - **Heavy - Traffic Asphalt开工 Rate**: It presents the historical开工 rate trends of heavy - traffic asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [97][98]. - **Asphalt开工 Rate by Use**: It shows the historical开工 rate trends of building asphalt, modified asphalt, and road - modified asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [100][101][103]. - **Downstream开工 Situation**: It presents the historical开工 rate trends of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [102][103][105]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the monthly supply - demand balance sheet of asphalt from 2024 to 2025, including production, import, export, downstream demand, and inventory [107][108].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沥青期货早报 2025年12月10日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看，根据隆众，2025年12月份沥青总计划排产量为215.8万吨，环比降幅3.24%。本周国内 石油沥青样本产能利用率为30.0815%，环比增加0.599个百分点，全国样本企业出货28.06万吨，环 比增加7.06%,样本企业产量为50.2万吨，环比增加2.03%,样本企业装置检修量预估为82.6万吨，环 比减少4.61%,本周炼厂有所增产，提升供应压力。下周或将增加供给压力。 需求端来看，重交沥青开工率为27.9%，环比增加0.00个百分点，低于历史平均水平；建筑沥青开工 率为6.6%，环比持平，低于历史平均水平；改性沥青开工率为9.2238% ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply pressure of asphalt is expected to increase as refineries have recently increased production. The overall demand is lower than the historical average and remains sluggish due to the off - season. The cost support may weaken in the short term as crude oil prices decline. It is predicted that the asphalt 2602 contract will fluctuate in the range of 2890 - 2942 in the short term. The overall fundamental outlook is bearish [7]. - Bullish factor: The relatively high price of crude oil provides some support [10]. - Bearish factors: There is insufficient demand for high - priced asphalt, and the overall demand is declining. The expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States is strengthening [11]. - Main logic: The supply pressure remains high, and the demand recovery is weak [12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply**: In December 2025, the total planned asphalt production is 2158,000 tons, a 3.24% month - on - month decrease. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt is 29.4823%, a 3.056 - percentage - point month - on - month increase. The national sample enterprise shipments are 262,100 tons, a 6.74% month - on - month increase. The sample enterprise production is 492,000 tons, an 11.56% month - on - month increase. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment is 866,000 tons, a 9.60% month - on - month decrease. Refineries have increased production this week, increasing supply pressure, and it may further increase next week [7]. - **Demand**: The开工 rate of heavy - traffic asphalt is 27.8%, a 0.12 - percentage - point month - on - month increase, lower than the historical average. The开工 rate of building asphalt is 6.6%, unchanged month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The开工 rate of modified asphalt is 10.5658%, a 0.02 - percentage - point month - on - month decrease, lower than the historical average. The开工 rate of road - modified asphalt is 29%, a 5.00 - percentage - point month - on - month decrease, lower than the historical average. The开工 rate of waterproofing membranes is 33.8%, a 0.20 - percentage - point month - on - month decrease, lower than the historical average [7]. - **Cost**: The daily asphalt processing profit is - 496.91 yuan/ton, a 2.60% month - on - month increase. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries is 1102.9986 yuan/ton, a 1.49% month - on - month increase. Asphalt processing losses are increasing, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking is increasing. With the weakening of crude oil prices, the short - term support is expected to weaken [7]. - **Basis**: On December 2, the spot price in Shandong is 2960 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 02 contract is 39 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price. This is a bullish signal [7]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory is 745,000 tons, a 3.74% month - on - month decrease. The in - plant inventory is 588,000 tons, a 1.20% month - on - month increase. The port diluted asphalt inventory is 570,000 tons, a 28.75% month - on - month decrease. The social inventory is continuously decreasing, the in - plant inventory is continuously increasing, and the port inventory is continuously decreasing, which is a neutral signal [7]. - **Market**: The MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 02 contract closes below the MA20, which is a bearish signal [7]. - **Main positions**: The main positions are net short, and the short positions are decreasing, which is a bearish signal [7]. 3.2 Asphalt Futures Market - **Basis trend**: The report shows the historical trends of the Shandong and East China asphalt basis from 2020 to 2025 [17][18]. - **Spread analysis**: - **Main contract spread**: It shows the historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [22][23]. - **Asphalt - crude oil price trend**: It presents the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas Intermediate crude oil from 2020 to 2025 [25][26]. - **Crude oil cracking spread**: It shows the historical trends of the asphalt - SC, asphalt - WTI, and asphalt - Brent crude oil cracking spreads from 2020 to 2025 [28][29][30]. - **Asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil price ratio trend**: It presents the historical trends of the asphalt - SC and asphalt - fuel oil price ratios from 2020 to 2025 [32][34]. 3.3 Asphalt Spot Market - **Regional market price trends**: It shows the historical trend of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt prices from 2020 to 2025 [35][36]. 3.4 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit analysis**: - **Asphalt profit**: It shows the historical trend of asphalt profits from 2019 to 2025 [37][38]. - **Coking - asphalt profit spread trend**: It presents the historical trend of the coking - asphalt profit spread from 2020 to 2025 [40][41][42]. - **Supply - side analysis**: - **Shipment volume**: It shows the historical trend of weekly asphalt shipment volumes from 2020 to 2025 [44][45]. - **Diluted asphalt port inventory**: It presents the historical trend of domestic diluted asphalt port inventories from 2021 to 2025 [46][47]. - **Production volume**: It shows the historical trends of weekly and monthly asphalt production volumes from 2019 to 2025 [49][50]. - **Marine crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production trend**: It presents the historical trends of Marine crude oil prices and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production from 2018 to 2025 [53][55]. - **Local refinery asphalt production**: It shows the historical trend of local refinery asphalt production from 2019 to 2025 [56][57]. - **Capacity utilization rate**: It presents the historical trend of weekly asphalt capacity utilization rates from 2021 to 2025 [59][60]. - **Estimated maintenance loss volume**: It shows the historical trend of estimated asphalt maintenance loss volumes from 2018 to 2025 [62][63]. - **Inventory analysis**: - **Exchange warehouse receipts**: It shows the historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and factory inventory) of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [65][66][67]. - **Social inventory and in - plant inventory**: It presents the historical trends of asphalt social inventory (70 samples) and in - plant inventory (54 samples) from 2022 to 2025 [69][70]. - **In - plant inventory inventory ratio**: It shows the historical trend of the in - plant inventory inventory ratio from 2018 to 2025 [72][73]. - **Import - export situation**: It shows the historical trends of asphalt export, import, and South Korean asphalt import price spreads from 2020 to 2025 [75][76][79]. - **Demand - side analysis**: - **Petroleum coke production**: It shows the historical trend of petroleum coke production from 2019 to 2025 [81][82]. - **Apparent consumption**: It presents the historical trend of asphalt apparent consumption from 2019 to 2025 [84][85]. - **Downstream demand**: - **Highway construction and transportation fixed - asset investment**: It shows the historical trends of highway construction and transportation fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion year - on - year from 2019 to 2025 [87][88][89]. - **Downstream machinery demand**: It presents the historical trends of asphalt concrete paver sales, excavator monthly working hours, domestic excavator sales, and road roller sales from 2019 to 2025 [91][92][93][94]. - **Asphalt capacity utilization rate**: - **Heavy - traffic asphalt capacity utilization rate**: It shows the historical trend of heavy - traffic asphalt capacity utilization rates from 2019 to 2025 [96][97]. - **Asphalt capacity utilization rate by use**: It presents the historical trends of building asphalt and modified asphalt capacity utilization rates from 2019 to 2025 [99][100]. - **Downstream capacity utilization situation**: It shows the historical trends of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt capacity utilization rates from 2019 to 2025 [102][103][105]. - **Supply - demand balance sheet**: It provides the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to December 2025, including downstream demand, diluted asphalt port inventory, factory inventory, social inventory, export volume, import volume, and production volume [107][108].

沥青期货早报 2025年12月2日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 4 每日观点 供给端来看，根据隆众，2025年11月份地炼沥青总计划排产量为131.2万吨，环比增 幅18.2%,同比降幅6.5%。本周国内石油沥青样本产能利用率为29.4823%，环比增加 3.056个百分点，全国样本企业出货26.21万吨，环比增加6.74%,样本企业产量为 49.2万吨，环比增加11.56%,样本企业装置检修量预估为86.6万吨，环比减少9.60%, 本周炼厂有所增产，提升供应压力。下周或将增加供给压力。 需求端来看，重交沥青开工率为27.8%，环比增加0.12个百分点，低于历史平均水 平；建筑沥青开工率为6.6%，环比持平，低于历史平均水平；改 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side shows that the total planned production volume of asphalt from local refineries in November 2025 is 1.312 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 18.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.5%. The capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt samples this week is 30.8006%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.08 percentage points. Refineries have reduced production this week, and the supply pressure is expected to decrease next week [8]. - On the demand side, the current demand is lower than the historical average. The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 is 29%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.02 percentage points; the construction asphalt开工率 is 6%, unchanged from the previous month; the modified asphalt开工率 is 11.2169%, a month - on - month increase of 0.79 percentage points; the road - modified asphalt开工率 is 34%, unchanged from the previous month; the waterproofing membrane开工率 is 33%, a month - on - month decrease of 1 percentage point [8]. - In terms of cost, the daily asphalt processing profit is - 562.55 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 3.80%, and the weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries is 915.1743 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 14.48%. The loss of asphalt processing increases, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increases. Crude oil is strengthening, and it is expected to support the price in the short term [8]. - The basis on November 14 shows that the spot price in Shandong is 3010 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract is - 27 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures, showing a neutral situation [8]. - In terms of inventory, the social inventory is 825,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.02%; the in - plant inventory is 647,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.94%; the port diluted asphalt inventory is 350,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 18.75%. The social inventory is continuously decreasing, while the in - plant and port inventories are increasing, showing a neutral situation [8]. - The disk shows that MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closes below MA20, showing a bearish situation [8]. - The net short position of the main contract is increasing, showing a bearish situation [8]. - In general, refineries have reduced production recently, the demand is affected by the off - season, and the overall demand is lower than expected. The inventory is stable, and crude oil is strengthening. The cost support is expected to strengthen in the short term, and the disk is expected to fluctuate narrowly in the short term. Asphalt 2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 3012 - 3062 [8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - **Likely Positive Factors**: The relatively high cost of crude oil provides some support [10]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: The demand for high - priced asphalt is insufficient, and the overall demand is declining. The expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States is strengthening [11]. - **Main Logic**: The supply pressure remains high, and the demand recovery is weak [12]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - The report provides the price, basis, inventory, production, and other data of different asphalt contracts (01 - 12 contracts), including their previous values and percentage changes [15]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend - The report presents the historical trends of the Shandong and East China basis of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [18][20]. 3.4 Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - **Main Contract Spread**: The report shows the historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [22][23]. - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: It presents the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil from 2020 to 2025 [26]. - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: The report shows the historical crack spreads of asphalt against SC, WTI, and Brent crude oils from 2020 to 2025 [29][30]. - **Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend**: It presents the historical price ratio trends of asphalt against SC crude oil and fuel oil from 2020 to 2025 [34]. 3.5 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Different Regions - The report shows the historical price trend of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [36]. 3.6 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis** - **Asphalt Profit**: It presents the historical profit trend of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [39]. - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend**: The report shows the historical profit spread trend between coking and asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [42][43]. - **Supply - Side Analysis** - **Shipment Volume**: It presents the historical weekly shipment volume of asphalt small - sample enterprises from 2020 to 2025 [45]. - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: The report shows the historical domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2025 [47]. - **Production Volume**: It presents the historical weekly and monthly production volumes of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [50]. - **Marey Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Production Trend**: The report shows the historical price trend of Marey crude oil and the monthly production trend of Venezuelan crude oil from 2018 to 2025 [55]. - **Local Refinery Asphalt Production**: It presents the historical production volume of local refinery asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [57]. - **Capacity Utilization Rate**: The report shows the historical weekly capacity utilization rate of asphalt from 2021 to 2025 [60]. - **Estimated Maintenance Loss Volume**: It presents the historical estimated maintenance loss volume trend of asphalt from 2018 to 2025 [62]. - **Inventory Analysis** - **Exchange Warehouse Receipts**: The report shows the historical exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and in - plant inventory) of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [65][66][67]. - **Social Inventory and In - Plant Inventory**: It presents the historical social inventory (70 samples) and in - plant inventory (54 samples) of asphalt from 2022 to 2025 [69]. - **In - Plant Inventory Inventory Ratio**: The report shows the historical in - plant inventory inventory ratio of asphalt from 2018 to 2025 [72]. - **Import and Export Situation** - **Export and Import Trends**: It presents the historical export and import trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [75]. - **Korean Asphalt Import Spread Trend**: The report shows the historical import spread trend of Korean asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [78]. - **Demand - Side Analysis** - **Petroleum Coke Production**: It presents the historical production volume of petroleum coke from 2019 to 2025 [81]. - **Apparent Consumption**: The report shows the historical apparent consumption of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [84]. - **Downstream Demand** - **Highway Construction and Fixed - Asset Investment in Transportation**: It presents the historical fixed - asset investment in highway construction and transportation from 2020 to 2025 [87]. - **New Local Special Bonds and Infrastructure Investment Completion**: The report shows the historical trends of new local special bonds and the year - on - year change of infrastructure investment completion from 2019 to 2025 [88]. - **Downstream Machinery Demand**: It presents the historical sales volume trends of asphalt concrete pavers, domestic excavators, and road rollers from 2019 to 2025, as well as the monthly working hours of excavators from 2020 to 2025 [92][94]. - **Asphalt Capacity Utilization Rate** - **Heavy - Traffic Asphalt Capacity Utilization Rate**: It presents the historical capacity utilization rate of heavy - traffic asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [96]. - **Asphalt Capacity Utilization Rate by Use**: The report shows the historical capacity utilization rates of construction asphalt and modified asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [99]. - **Downstream Capacity Utilization Situation**: It presents the historical capacity utilization rates of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [101][103]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The report provides the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to November 2025, including production, import, export, inventory, and downstream demand data [106].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side is under increasing pressure as refineries have increased production recently. In August 2025, the total planned asphalt production in China was 2.413 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. This week, the utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt sample production capacity increased, and the output of sample enterprises also increased [8]. - The demand side is weak. The current demand is below the historical average level, with the construction of various types of asphalt and related products showing low or declining operating rates [8]. - The cost side is supported by the strengthening of crude oil. Although the daily processing profit of asphalt has decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking has also decreased, the rising crude oil price is expected to provide short - term support [9]. - The overall expectation is that the asphalt futures market will fluctuate narrowly in the short term. The asphalt 2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 3228 - 3270 [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - Supply: The refineries' increased production has raised supply pressure, and it may further increase next week. The planned production in August 2025 decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. This week, the capacity utilization rate, output, and shipment of sample enterprises all changed, with the device maintenance volume decreasing [8]. - Demand: The operating rates of various types of asphalt downstream products are generally lower than the historical average, indicating weak demand [8]. - Cost: The daily processing profit of asphalt decreased by 8.00% month - on - month, and the weekly delayed coking profit in Shandong decreased by 18.59%. The strengthening of crude oil is expected to support the cost in the short term [9]. - Expectation: The asphalt futures market is expected to fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with the asphalt 2601 contract in the 3228 - 3270 range [10]. - Other factors: The basis shows that the spot price is higher than the futures price, which is bullish. The inventory situation is mixed, with social inventory decreasing, factory inventory increasing, and port diluted asphalt inventory decreasing. The MA20 of the disk is downward, and the 01 contract price is below the MA20, which is bearish. The main position is net long, but the long position is decreasing, which is bullish [11]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - The prices of various asphalt contracts generally increased compared with the previous values, with different ranges of increase. The inventory situation also changed, with some inventories increasing and some decreasing. The operating rates of different regions and products also showed various trends [18]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis and Spread Analysis - Basis: The report shows the historical trends of the Shandong and East China asphalt basis, which helps to understand the price relationship between the spot and futures markets [20]. - Spread: It includes the spread trends of main contracts (such as 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contracts), the price trends of asphalt and crude oil, the cracking spread of crude oil, and the price - to - price ratio trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil, providing comprehensive information for analyzing the market relationship [23][26][29][33]. 3.4 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Different Regions - The report shows the historical price trends of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt, reflecting the price changes in the spot market [36]. 3.5 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Profit analysis: It includes the profit trends of asphalt and the profit spread trends between coking and asphalt, which are important for understanding the profitability of the asphalt industry [39][42]. - Supply - side analysis: It covers aspects such as shipment volume, diluted asphalt port inventory, production volume, crude oil price and production volume, refinery production, operating rate, and maintenance loss volume, comprehensively reflecting the supply situation of the asphalt market [45][47][50][53][56][59][62]. - Inventory analysis: It includes exchange warehouse receipts, social inventory, factory inventory, and factory inventory inventory ratio, which are crucial for understanding the inventory status of the asphalt market [65][69][72]. - Import and export analysis: It shows the export and import trends of asphalt and the import price difference trends of South Korean asphalt, reflecting the international trade situation of asphalt [75][78]. - Demand - side analysis: It includes aspects such as petroleum coke production, apparent consumption, downstream demand (including highway construction investment, new local special bonds, infrastructure investment completion, and downstream machinery demand), asphalt operating rate, and downstream operating conditions, comprehensively reflecting the demand situation of the asphalt market [81][84][87][91][96][99][101]. - Supply - demand balance sheet: The monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet shows the production, import, export, inventory, and downstream demand of asphalt in different months, helping to understand the overall supply - demand relationship of the asphalt market [106].