Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The spot price of caustic soda is in a downward channel but the decline has slowed, with a possible stabilization expectation. The short - term basis has been repaired. In the medium term, the weak expectation persists due to the concentrated resumption of maintenance and the gradual launch of new production capacity, which will significantly increase the supply - side pressure. Even if there is an increase in demand, it is difficult to reverse the oversupply situation [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Caustic Soda Price Forecast and Volatility - The monthly price range forecast for caustic soda is 2200 - 2400. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 15.20%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility over 3 years is 5.1% [3]. 3.2 Risk Management Strategies - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, they can short caustic soda futures (SH2509) with a 50% hedging ratio in the 2400 - 2450 range to lock in profits and cover production costs. They can also sell call options (SH509C2400) with a 50% ratio in the 30 - 40 range to collect premiums and reduce costs, and lock in the spot selling price if the price rises [3]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low regular inventory hoping to purchase based on orders, they can buy caustic soda futures (SH2509) with a 50% hedging ratio in the 2200 - 2250 range to lock in procurement costs in advance. They can also sell put options (SH509P2200) with a 50% ratio in the 50 - 60 range to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs, and lock in the spot buying price if the price drops [3]. 3.3 Core Contradictions - Short - term contradictions are limited; in the medium - to - long term, there is production capacity launch pressure, and the overall expectation is weak [4]. 3.4利多解读 - The decline in spot prices has slowed, with a possible stabilization expectation; the near - end inventory is not high, and there are limited substantial contradictions [5]. 3.5利空解读 - In the medium - to - long term, there is an oversupply pressure. The supply side has a concentrated production capacity launch expectation, and the demand increment is insufficient to support a market reversal, which limits the upside [6]. 3.6 Caustic Soda Futures Prices and Spreads - **Futures Prices**: On July 1, 2025, the price of the caustic soda 05 contract was 2410 (up 27 or 1.13% from the previous day), the 09 contract was 2358 (up 39 or 1.68%), and the 01 contract was 2354 (up 30 or 1.29%) [7]. - **Spreads**: The 5 - 9 spread was 52 (down 12 from the previous day), the 9 - 1 spread was 4 (up 9), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 56 (up 3) [7]. - **Basis**: The 05 contract basis (Shandong Jinling) was - 66 (down 58 from the previous day), and the 09 contract basis (Shandong Jinling) was - 14 (down 70) [7]. 3.7 Caustic Soda Factory Prices and Market Prices - **32% Caustic Soda Factory Prices**: On July 1, 2025, the prices of some brands in different regions changed. For example, Shandong Jinling's price was 2344 (down 31.25 or - 1.3% from the previous day), and Shandong Hengtong's was 2563 (down 63 or - 2.4%) [8]. - **50% Caustic Soda Factory Prices**: Jinling's price was 2380 (down 60 or - 2.5% from the previous day) [8]. - **Flake Caustic Soda Market Prices**: Prices in various regions remained unchanged on July 1, 2025, such as 3150 in Shandong, 3311 in North China, etc. [9]. 3.8 Caustic Soda Grade/Regional Spreads - On July 1, 2025, some spreads changed. For example, the spread between Shandong 50% caustic soda and 32% caustic soda was 36 (down 28.75 from the previous day), and the spread between 50% caustic soda in Jiangsu and Shandong was 255 (down 103) [9]. 3.9 Caustic Soda Futures Spread Seasonality - Seasonal charts of caustic soda futures spreads (07 - 09, 09 - 11, 11 - 01, 09 - 01) and basis (09, 01 contracts in Shandong) are provided [10][11][12][13].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The spot market for caustic soda is in a downward trend, but the futures market is still at a large discount. In the medium term, the weak expectation persists due to the concentrated resumption of maintenance and the gradual launch of new production capacity, which will significantly increase the supply - side pressure. Even if there is an increase in demand, it is difficult to reverse the oversupply situation [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Sections Core Contradiction - The spot market is weakening. In the medium - to - long - term, there is pressure from new production, the market pattern is deteriorating, and the overall expectation is weak [4]. 利多解读 (Positive Factors) - The near - term inventory is not high, there are limited substantial contradictions, and the futures price is at a discount to the spot price [4]. 利空解读 (Negative Factors) - The procurement price has been reduced twice this week, and the spot price is in a downward channel. In the medium - to - long - term, there is an oversupply pressure, with an expected concentrated launch of production capacity on the supply side, and the increase in demand is insufficient to support a market reversal [4]. Price Forecast and Risk Management - **Price Forecast**: The monthly price range of caustic soda is predicted to be 2300 - 2600. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 19.14%, and its historical percentile in the past 3 years is 20.2% [3]. - **Risk Management Strategies** - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, they can short caustic soda futures (SH2509) at 2600 - 2650 with a 50% hedging ratio to lock in profits and cover production costs. They can also sell call options (SH509C2600) at 30 - 40 with a 50% ratio to collect premiums and lock in the spot selling price if the price rises [3]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low regular inventory and planning to purchase according to orders, they can buy caustic soda futures (SH2509) at 2300 - 2350 with a 50% hedging ratio to lock in procurement costs. They can also sell put options (SH509P2200) at 50 - 60 with a 50% ratio to collect premiums and lock in the spot buying price if the price drops [3]. Price and Spread Data - **Futures Price and Spread**: On June 17, 2025, the price of the caustic soda 05 contract was 2328 (down 1 or - 0.04% from the previous day), the 09 contract was 2273 (down 3 or - 0.13%), and the 01 contract was 2260 (down 10 or - 0.44%). The 5 - 9 spread was 55 (up 2), the 9 - 1 spread was 13 (up 7), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 68 (down 9) [5]. - **Base Price**: The 05 contract base price (Shandong Jinling) was 203 (down 62), the 09 contract base price was 258 (down 60), and the 01 contract base price was 271 (down 53) [5]. - **Factory - Gate Price**: The 32% caustic soda factory - gate price in Shandong Jinling decreased from 2594 to 2531 (down 62.5 or - 2.4%) on June 17, 2025. Some other brands and regions remained stable [6]. - **Market Price**: The flake caustic soda market prices in various regions remained stable on June 17, 2025 [7]. - **Brand/Regional Spread**: The spread between Shandong 50% caustic soda and 32% caustic soda increased from 26 to 89 on June 17, 2025. Some other spreads also changed or remained stable [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, caustic soda prices dropped significantly. The trading logic shifted, and the expectation of a worsened market situation after July strengthened. Additionally, electricity costs had an impact. However, in the short term, the pressure on the spot market is not obvious. There are still many maintenance plans in June, and the spot prices do not have a basis for continuous decline [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for caustic soda is 2300 - 2600. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 25.84%, and the historical percentile (3 - year) is 63.9% [3]. Risk Management Strategies - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, they can short caustic soda futures (SH2509, sell, 50% hedging ratio, entry range 2600 - 2650) to lock in profits and sell call options (SH509C2600, sell, 50% hedging ratio, entry range 30 - 40) to reduce costs. For those worried about price increases in procurement, they can buy caustic soda futures (SH2509, buy, 50% hedging ratio, entry range 2300 - 2350) and sell put options (SH509P2200, sell, 50% hedging ratio, entry range 50 - 60) [3]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low regular procurement inventory and planning to purchase based on orders, they can buy caustic soda futures at the current stage to lock in procurement costs and sell put options to reduce procurement costs [3]. Core Contradictions - In the short term, the fundamentals are not weak, and there is no obvious pressure on the spot market. In the long - term, there is production capacity expansion pressure, the market pattern will worsen, and the expectation is weak [4]. 利多 and 利空 Factors - **Lido Factors**: In the short term, the fundamentals have no obvious pressure. There are still many maintenance plans in June. The profit of the alumina industry on the demand side continues to improve, and non - aluminum exports are improving [5]. - **Risks**: In the long - term, there is an oversupply pressure. There is an expected centralized production capacity expansion on the supply side, and the demand growth is insufficient to support a market reversal [6]. Price and Spread Data - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: On June 9, 2025, the price of the caustic soda 05 contract was 2327, up 12 (0.52%) from June 6; the 09 contract was 2335, up 3 (0.13%); the 01 contract was 2268, up 9 (0.4%). The 5 - 9 spread was - 8, up 9; the 9 - 1 spread was 67, down 6; the 1 - 5 spread was - 59, down 3. The 05 contract basis (Shandong Jinling) was 454.25, down 12; the 09 contract basis was 446.25, down 3; the 01 contract basis was 513.25, down 9 [7]. - **Spot Prices**: On June 9, 2025, among 32 - alkali products, Shandong Jinling's price was 2656, down 125 (- 4.5%) from June 6. Among 50 - alkali products, Shandong Jinling's price was 2640, down 100 (- 3.7%). Most other brands and regions had no price changes. The market price of flake caustic soda in various regions also remained unchanged [8]. - **Price Spreads**: On June 9, 2025, the spread between Shandong 50 - alkali and 32 - alkali was - 16, up 25 from June 6. Some other spreads remained unchanged, while the 50 - alkali spread between Jiangsu and Shandong was 220, up 20; the 50 - alkali spread between Guangdong and Shandong was 530, up 10 [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View - The near - term contradictions of caustic soda are limited, and the spot price still has support. There are still many maintenance operations in June, so the overall supply pressure will not be significant. Also, Weiqiao and 50% caustic soda exports have a certain carrying capacity. In the near - term, the willingness of upstream producers to issue warehouse receipts is low, and there is no obvious pressure. Although the non - aluminum sector feedback is average, it also does not have obvious suppressing power. The medium - term supply - demand imbalance will suppress the overall price, and it may wait for the spot price to weaken. [7] Summary According to Related Contents Core Contradiction - Strong reality, weak expectation. There is no obvious pressure on the near - end spot market, and there is no obvious downward driving force for now; in the medium - to - long term, there is production capacity expansion pressure, which limits the price increase. It is in a positive spread pattern. [4] 利多解读 (Positive Interpretation) - In the near - term, the fundamentals have no obvious pressure; there are still many maintenance operations in June; the spot price remains relatively strong. [5] 利空解读 (Negative Interpretation) - In the medium - to - long term, there is an oversupply pressure. The supply side has an expectation of concentrated production capacity expansion, and the increase in demand is insufficient to support a market reversal. [6] Price and Spread Information Caustic Soda Futures Price and Month - to - Month Spread | Futures Contract | 2025 - 06 - 05 | 2025 - 06 - 04 | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Caustic Soda 05 Contract | 2347 | 2330 | 17 | 0.73% | | Caustic Soda 09 Contract | 2367 | 2371 | - 4 | - 0.17% | | Caustic Soda 01 Contract | 2307 | 2271 | 36 | 1.59% | | Month - to - Month Spread (5 - 9) | - 20 | - 41 | 21 | | | Month - to - Month Spread (9 - 1) | 60 | 100 | - 40 | | | Month - to - Month Spread (1 - 5) | - 40 | - 59 | 19 | | | 05 Contract Basis (Shandong Jinling) | 465.5 | 482.5 | - 17 | | | 09 Contract Basis (Shandong Jinling) | 445.5 | 441.5 | 4 | | [8] Liquid Caustic Soda and Flake Caustic Soda Spot Price - The spot prices of liquid caustic soda (32% and 50%) and flake caustic soda in different regions on different dates are provided. Most of the prices remained unchanged on 2025 - 06 - 04 compared with the previous day, except for some flake caustic soda prices in Shandong and East China which increased by 0.7%. [9] Brand/Regional Price Spread | Price Spread | 2025 - 06 - 04 | 2025 - 06 - 03 | Daily Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shandong 50% Caustic Soda - 32% Caustic Soda | - 73 | - 73 | 0 | | Jiangsu 49% Caustic Soda - 32% Caustic Soda | 20 | 20 | 0 | | Jiangsu 48% Caustic Soda - 32% Caustic Soda | 104 | 104 | 0 | | Northwest 99% Caustic Soda - 50% Caustic Soda | 433 | 433 | 0 | | Jiangsu - Shandong (32% Caustic Soda Converted to 100%) | 119 | 119 | 0 | | 50% Caustic Soda (Jiangsu - Shandong) | 200 | 180 | 20 | | 50% Caustic Soda (Guangdong - Shandong) | 530 | 520 | 10 | [10] Price Forecast and Risk Management Strategy Price Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for caustic soda is 2300 - 2600, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 26.71% and a historical percentile (3 - year) of 67.0%. [3] Risk Management Strategy | Behavior Guidance | Scenario Analysis | Spot Exposure | Strategy Recommendation | Hedging Tool | Buying/Selling Direction | Hedging Ratio (%) | Suggested Entry Range | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Inventory Management | High finished - product inventory, worried about caustic soda price decline | Long | To prevent inventory depreciation losses, short caustic soda futures according to the enterprise's inventory to lock in profits and cover production costs; sell call options to collect premiums and reduce costs. If the caustic soda price rises, the spot selling price can be locked. | SH2509, SH509C2600 | Sell | 50 | 2600 - 2650, 30 - 40 | | Procurement Management | Low regular procurement inventory, hoping to purchase according to order situation | Short | To prevent the increase in procurement costs due to the rise in caustic soda price, buy caustic soda futures at present to lock in procurement costs in the futures market; sell put options to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs. If the caustic soda price falls, the spot purchase price can be locked. | SH2509, SH509P2200 | Buy, Sell | 50 | 2300 - 2350, 50 - 60 | [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The near - term contradictions of caustic soda are limited. The supply - side maintenance and strong near - term demand support the spot. But in the medium term, the market logic may shift to the resumption of maintenance and the third - quarter production expectations. Demand has an increase but is insufficient to reverse the situation, and the acceptance of high - price caustic soda by downstream industries such as non - aluminum is limited. The upside of caustic soda is limited, and it may wait for signs of weakness on the spot side [6] Summary by Related Catalogs Price Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for caustic soda is 2400 - 2600, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 24.25% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 47.9% [3] Risk Management Strategy Inventory Management - For high finished - product inventory, to prevent inventory depreciation, short caustic soda futures (SH2509) at 50% hedging ratio in the range of 2600 - 2650; sell call options (SH509C2600) at 50% hedging ratio in the range of 60 - 70 to collect premiums and lock in the spot selling price if the price rises [3] Procurement Management - For low regular inventory, to prevent price increases in procurement, buy caustic soda futures (SH2509) at 50% hedging ratio in the range of 2350 - 2400; sell put options (SH509P2400) at 50% hedging ratio in the range of 70 - 80 to collect premiums and lock in the spot purchase price if the price falls [3] Core Contradiction - In the short term, the fundamentals are supported, there is no obvious pressure on the spot, and there is no obvious downward driving force. In the long - term, there is production pressure, which limits the price ceiling. The short - term is generally treated as a sideways trend [4] 利多解读 - In the short term, the fundamentals have no obvious pressure; there are still many maintenance plans in June; the profit of the alumina on the demand side has improved, with a resumption of production expectation; the non - aluminum export rush has improved [4] 利空解读 - In the long - term, there is an oversupply pressure, with a concentrated production expectation on the supply side, and the demand increment is insufficient to support a market reversal [5] Caustic Soda Disk Price/Month Spread | | 2025 - 05 - 29 | 2025 - 05 - 28 | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Caustic Soda 05 Contract | 2428 | 2408 | 20 | 0.83% | | Caustic Soda 09 Contract | 2479 | 2456 | 23 | 0.94% | | Caustic Soda 01 Contract | 2380 | 2363 | 17 | 0.72% | | Month Spread (5 - 9) | - 51 | - 48 | - 3 | | | Month Spread (9 - 1) | 99 | 93 | 6 | | | Month Spread (1 - 5) | - 48 | - 45 | - 3 | | | 05 Contract Basis (Shandong Jinling) | 384.5 | 404.5 | - 20 | | | 09 Contract Basis (Shandong Jinling) | 333.5 | 356.5 | - 23 | | [6] Liquid Caustic Soda/Flake Caustic Soda Spot Situation - Most prices of liquid caustic soda (32% and 50%) and flake caustic soda in different regions remained unchanged on May 29, 2025, compared with the previous day, except for a 1.2% increase in the 32% liquid caustic soda price of Shandong Lutai and a 0.7% increase in the flake caustic soda price in the Southwest region [7] Caustic Soda Grade/Regional Spread - Most caustic soda grade/regional spreads remained unchanged on May 29, 2025, compared with the previous day, except for a 10 - point increase in the 50% caustic soda spread between Guangdong and Shandong [8]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Short - term fundamentals support the market, with no obvious pressure on the spot side and no clear downward drivers. In the medium - long term, there is production pressure, which limits the price ceiling, and the market is expected to be volatile [3] - Bullish factors include short - term stable fundamentals, many upcoming maintenance plans, improved alumina profits with复产 expectations, and improved non - aluminum export situation [3] - Bearish factors are medium - long - term oversupply pressure, expected concentrated production on the supply side, and insufficient demand growth to support a market reversal [3] Group 3: Price Forecast and Strategy Price Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for caustic soda is 2400 - 2600. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 24.53%, and its historical percentile over 3 years is 50.1% [4] Strategy Inventory Management - For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, they can short caustic soda futures (SH2509) to lock in profits, with a hedging ratio of 50% and an entry range of 2600 - 2650. They can also sell call options (SH509C2600) to collect premiums, with a hedging ratio of 50% and an entry range of 60 - 70 [4] Procurement Management - For enterprises with low procurement inventory and aiming to purchase based on orders, they can buy caustic soda futures (SH2509) to lock in procurement costs, with a hedging ratio of 50% and an entry range of 2350 - 2400. They can also sell put options (SH509P2400) to collect premiums, with a hedging ratio of 50% and an entry range of 90 - 100 [4] Group 4: Futures and Spot Market Data Futures Market - On May 27, 2025, the prices of caustic soda 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 2441, 2449, and 2394 respectively, with daily changes of - 59 (- 2.36%), - 37 (- 1.49%), and - 62 (- 2.52%) compared to May 26 [4] - The month - spreads (5 - 9), (9 - 1), and (1 - 5) were - 8, 55, and - 47 respectively, with daily changes of - 22, 25, and - 3 [4] - The 05, 09, and 01 contract basis (Shandong Jinling) were 371.5, 363.5, and 418.5 respectively, with daily changes of 121.5, 99.5, and 124.5 [4] Spot Market Liquid Caustic Soda - In Shandong, the 32 - alkali ex - factory prices of Jinling, Haihua, Lutai, and Hengtong on May 27, 2025 were 2813, 2875, 2719, and 2781 respectively, with daily changes of 62.5 (2.3%), 62.5 (2.2%), 31.25 (1.2%), and 62.5 (2.3%) [5][6] - In other regions, the prices of some brands remained unchanged on May 27 compared to May 26 [6] Caustic Soda Flakes - The market prices of caustic soda flakes in most regions remained stable on May 22 compared to May 21, except for a 25 (0.7%) increase in the Southwest region [6] Group 5: Price Difference - On May 27, 2025, the price differences such as Shandong 50 - alkali - 32 - alkali, Jiangsu 49 - alkali - 32 - alkali, etc. showed different daily changes. For example, Shandong 50 - alkali - 32 - alkali decreased by 62.5, while Jiangsu 49 - alkali - 32 - alkali remained unchanged [7]