烧碱产业风险管理日报 2025/10/15 寿佳露（投资咨询证号：Z0020569） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 烧碱价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 烧碱 | 2400-2650 | 19.96% | 25.2% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 烧碱风险管理策略建议 | 行为导 | 情景分析 | 现货敞 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 买卖方 | | 套保比例 | 建议入场 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 向 | | 口 | | | 向 | （%） | 区间 | | 库存管 理 | 产成品库存偏高，担心烧碱价格下跌 | 多 | 为了防止存货跌价损失，可以根据企业的库存情况，做空烧碱期货来锁定利 润，弥补企业的生产成本 | SH2601 | 卖出 | 50% | 2600-265 0 | | | | | 卖出看涨期权收取权利金降低成本，若烧碱上涨还可以锁定现货卖出价格 | SH6 ...

寿佳露（投资咨询证号：Z0020569） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 烧碱价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 烧碱 | 2500-2900 | 22.00% | 39.1% | 烧碱产业风险管理日报 2025/09/26 source： 南华研究,同花顺 烧碱风险管理策略建议 | 行为导 | 情景分析 | 现货敞 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 买卖方 | | 套保比例 | 建议入场 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 向 | | 口 | | | 向 | （%） | 区间 | | 库存管 理 | 产成品库存偏高，担心烧碱价格下跌 | | 为了防止存货跌价损失，可以根据企业的库存情况，做空烧碱期货来锁定利 润，弥补企业的生产成本 | SH2601 | 卖出 | 50% | 2800-285 0 | | | | 多 | | | | | | | | | | 卖出看涨期权收取权利金降低成本，若烧碱上 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The current spot price of caustic soda is weakening. The supply-side production fluctuates normally due to maintenance, and the chlor-alkali profit remains above 300. There is still restocking expectation in non-aluminum downstream, and the non-aluminum rigid demand is seasonally recovering. The future market depends on the spot rhythm, the strength of the peak season, and the enthusiasm of downstream inventory preparation [3] Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs 1. Caustic Soda Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for caustic soda is 2500 - 2900 yuan/ton, with a current 20-day rolling volatility of 20.66% and a historical percentile of 28.5% over 3 years [2] 2. Caustic Soda Risk Management Strategy Suggestions Inventory Management - For enterprises with high finished product inventory worried about price decline, they can short caustic soda futures (SH2601) at 2800 - 2850 yuan/ton with a hedging ratio of 50% to lock in profits and cover production costs; they can also sell call options (SH601C2800) at 70 - 80 yuan with a hedging ratio of 50% to collect premiums and reduce costs, and lock in the spot selling price if the price rises [2] Procurement Management - For enterprises with low regular procurement inventory and willing to purchase according to orders, they can buy caustic soda futures (SH2601) at 2500 - 2550 yuan/ton with a hedging ratio of 50% to prevent price increases and lock in procurement costs; they can also sell put options (SH601P2480) at 70 - 80 yuan with a hedging ratio of 50% to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs, and lock in the spot buying price if the price falls [2] 3. Caustic Soda Futures Price and Spread - On September 19, 2025, the prices of caustic soda 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 2723, 2734, and 2641 yuan/ton respectively, with daily increases of 2.06%, 1.64%, and 2.36% compared to the previous day. The spreads (5 - 9), (9 - 1), and (1 - 5) were -11, 93, and -82 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of 11, -17, and 6 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. The basis of 05, 09, and 01 contracts (Shandong Jinling) were -317, -328, and -235 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of -55, -44, and -61 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [3] 4. Factory Price of 32% Caustic Soda Converted to Futures Price - On September 19, 2025, the factory prices of 32% caustic soda converted to futures price in different regions and brands showed little change compared to the previous day, except for Lutai in Shandong, which decreased by 2.2% to 2781 yuan/ton [4][6] 5. Factory Price of 50% Caustic Soda Converted to Futures Price - On September 19, 2025, the factory prices of 50% caustic soda converted to futures price in different brands showed little change compared to the previous day, except for Lutai, which decreased by 1.5% to 2720 yuan/ton [6] 6. Market Price of Flake Caustic Soda - On September 19, 2025, the market prices of flake caustic soda in different regions showed no change compared to the previous day [7] 7. Caustic Soda Grade/Regional Spread - On September 19, 2025, most caustic soda grade/regional spreads showed no change compared to the previous day, except for the spread of 50% caustic soda between Guangdong and Shandong, which increased by 50 yuan/ton to 640 yuan/ton [7] 8. Seasonality of Caustic Soda Futures Spreads and Basis - The report provides the seasonality charts of caustic soda futures spreads (09 - 11, 11 - 01, 01 - 03, 09 - 01) and the seasonality charts of caustic soda 09 and 01 contract basis in Shandong [8][9]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The near - term spot price range of caustic soda is relatively stable with no obvious price cuts. The delivery volume of downstream alumina plants continues to increase, but the price remains stable. Alkali plants keep reducing inventory, though the slope slows down. Supply output decreases slightly due to maintenance, which is a normal fluctuation. The cost remains stable, and the chlor - alkali profit stays above 300. Non - aluminum downstream is in the transition between the off - season and peak season, and the non - aluminum rigid demand is expected to increase seasonally. The future market should continue to focus on the spot rhythm, the strength of the peak season, and the downstream restocking enthusiasm [3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Caustic Soda Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for caustic soda is 2500 - 2900. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 23.49%, and the current volatility's historical percentile over 3 years is 49.4% [2]. Caustic Soda Risk Management Strategy Suggestions Inventory Management - When the finished product inventory is high and there is a concern about caustic soda price decline, to prevent inventory depreciation losses, enterprises can short caustic soda futures according to their inventory to lock in profits and cover production costs. The recommended contract is SH2601, with a selling position and a hedging ratio of 50%, and the suggested entry range is 2800 - 2850. They can also sell call options to collect premiums and reduce costs. If the caustic soda price rises, the spot selling price can be locked. The recommended option is SH601C3000, with a selling position, a hedging ratio of 50%, and the suggested entry range is 70 - 80 [2]. - When the purchase of regular inventory is low and there is a need to purchase according to orders, to prevent the caustic soda price from rising and increasing procurement costs, enterprises can buy caustic soda futures at present to lock in procurement costs in advance. The recommended contract is SH2601, with a buying position, a hedging ratio of 50%, and the suggested entry range is 2600 - 2650. They can also sell put options to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs. If the caustic soda price falls, the spot purchase price can be locked. The recommended option is SH601P2600, with a selling position, a hedging ratio of 50%, and the suggested entry range is 70 - 80 [2]. Caustic Soda Futures Price and Spread - On September 2, 2025, compared with September 1, 2025, the price of the caustic soda 05 contract increased by 35 to 2794, with a daily increase of 1.27%; the 09 contract increased by 40 to 2528, with a daily increase of 1.61%; the 01 contract increased by 65 to 2735, with a daily increase of 2.43%. The 5 - 9 spread decreased by 5 to 266; the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 25 to - 207; the 1 - 5 spread increased by 30 to - 59. The 05 - contract basis (Shandong Jinling) decreased by 35 to - 107; the 09 - contract basis decreased by 40 to 160; the 01 - contract basis decreased by 65 to - 48 [3]. Factory - Gate Prices of Different Caustic Soda Products - On September 1, 2025, for 32% caustic soda, among different brands in Shandong, Jinling's price was 2688 (unchanged), Haihua's was 2906 (unchanged), Lutai's increased by 62.5 to 2875 with a daily increase of 2.2%, and Hengtong's was 2781 (unchanged). In other regions, Jiangsu Xinyu's was 3125 (unchanged), Jiangsu Jinqiao's was 2775 (unchanged), Zhejiang Zhenyang's was 3419 (unchanged), and Shaanxi Beiyuan's was 3600 (unchanged). For 50% caustic soda, Jinling's price was 2620 (unchanged), Lutai's increased by 40 to 2760 with a daily increase of 1.5%, and Beiyuan's was 3420 (unchanged) [5]. Flake Caustic Soda Market Prices - On September 1, 2025, compared with August 29, 2025, flake caustic soda prices in different regions remained unchanged. In Shandong, it was 3400; in North China, it was 3564; in Southwest China, it was 3590; in Central China, it was 3540; in East China, it was 3590; in Northwest China, it was 3200 [6]. Caustic Soda Grade/Regional Spreads - On September 1, 2025, compared with August 29, 2025, most caustic soda grade/regional spreads remained unchanged. Shandong 50% caustic soda - 32% caustic soda was - 68 (unchanged); Jiangsu 49% caustic soda - 32% caustic soda was 13 (unchanged); Jiangsu 48% caustic soda - 32% caustic soda was 94 (unchanged); Northwest 99% caustic soda - 50% caustic soda was 382 (unchanged); Jiangsu - Shandong (32% caustic soda converted to 100%) was - 6 (unchanged); 50% caustic soda (Jiangsu - Shandong) was 137 (unchanged), and 50% caustic soda (Guangdong - Shandong) increased by 10 to 430 [6]. Seasonal Patterns of Caustic Soda Futures Spreads and Basis - The document provides seasonal charts of caustic soda futures spreads (09 - 11, 11 - 01, 01 - 03, 09 - 01) and basis (09 - contract and 01 - contract in Shandong) over different years (2023, 2024, 2025) [6][7][8].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Entering August, the 09 contract may start to follow the delivery logic. Attention should be paid to the warehouse receipt pressure, with a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength. Fundamentally, there has been price decline and inventory accumulation in the near term, and the price of Shandong liquid caustic soda has gradually declined. The supply output is expected to continue to rise. The cost remains stable, but with the increase in liquid chlorine price, the chlor - alkali profit has recovered. The non - aluminum downstream is in the off - season. In the future, attention should be paid to the prosperity of the peak season, the improvement of downstream demand, and the enthusiasm of downstream inventory replenishment. In the long - term, with the resumption of production and the gradual release of new production capacity, the pressure on the supply side may gradually emerge [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Price Forecast and Risk Management - **Price Forecast**: The monthly price range forecast for caustic soda is 2400 - 2800 yuan/ton. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 24.94%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility in the past 3 years is 63.5% [2]. - **Risk Management Strategies** - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price decline, they can short caustic soda futures (contract SH2511, sell, hedge ratio 50%, recommended entry range 2750 - 2800 yuan/ton) to lock in profits and make up for production costs. They can also sell call options (contract SH511C2760, sell, hedge ratio 50%, recommended entry range 70 - 80) to collect premiums and reduce costs [2]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low regular inventory and hoping to purchase according to orders, they can buy caustic soda futures (contract SH2511, buy, hedge ratio 50%, recommended entry range 2400 - 2450 yuan/ton) to lock in procurement costs in advance. They can also sell put options (contract SH511P2440, sell, hedge ratio 50%, recommended entry range 40 - 60) to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs [2]. 3.2 Core Contradictions,利多, and利空 Analysis - **Core Contradictions**: Near - term warehouse receipts and spot prices are under pressure; there is production capacity expansion pressure and policy expectations in the medium - to - long - term [3]. - **Lido Factors**: Near - term spot prices fluctuate within a range; there are expectations of cost increase and device elimination [3]. - **Lido Factors**: The current demand is average; there is high near - term warehouse receipt pressure; there is an oversupply pressure in the medium - to - long - term [3]. 3.3 Price and Spread Data - **Caustic Soda Futures Prices and Daily Changes**: On August 13, 2025, the price of the caustic soda 05 contract was 2703 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan (- 0.7%) from the previous day; the 09 contract was 2481 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan (- 0.84%); the 01 contract was 2614 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan (- 0.83%) [4]. - **Caustic Soda Futures Month - spreads**: The month - spread (5 - 9) was 222 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan from the previous day; the month - spread (9 - 1) was - 133 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan; the month - spread (1 - 5) was - 89 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan [4]. - **Caustic Soda Futures Basis**: The basis of the 05 contract (Shandong Jinling) was - 266 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan from the previous day; the 09 contract basis was - 44 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan; the 01 contract basis was - 177 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan [4]. - **Caustic Soda Factory Prices**: The ex - factory price of 32% caustic soda in different regions and brands had different changes. For example, the price of Jinling in Shandong remained unchanged at 2438 yuan/ton, while the price of 50% caustic soda of Jinling increased by 60 yuan/ton to 2540 yuan/ton [6]. - **Caustic Soda Market Prices**: The market price of flake caustic soda in different regions had different changes. For example, in Shandong, it decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 3300 yuan/ton, and in the Northwest, it decreased by 120 yuan/ton to 3130 yuan/ton [7]. - **Caustic Soda Grade/Regional Spreads**: The spreads between different grades and regions of caustic soda had different changes. For example, the spread between Shandong 50% caustic soda and 32% caustic soda increased by 60 yuan/ton to 103 yuan/ton, and the spread between 50% caustic soda in Jiangsu and Shandong decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 237 yuan/ton [7].

日报 . 烧碱产业风险管理日报 2025/08/05 寿佳露（投资咨询证号：Z0020569） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 烧碱价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 烧碱 | 2400-2800 | 24.94% | 63.5% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 烧碱风险管理策略建议 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例（%） | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存管理 产成品库存偏高，担心烧碱价格下 | 跌 | 多 | 为了防止存货跌价损失，可 以根据企业的库存情况，做 卖出看涨期权收取权利金降 | SH2509 | 卖出 | 50% | 2600-2650 | | | | | 空烧碱期货来锁定利润，弥 | | | | | | | | | 补企业的生产成本 | | | | | | | | | 低成本，若烧 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall commodity market is strong, showing a resonant upward trend. Fundamentally, caustic soda has strengthened in the near - term, and the decline in liquid chlorine has led to cost increases. Shandong's liquid caustic soda inventory is low year - on - year, with little spot pressure, and the market may anticipate the peak season. In the short - term, attention should be paid to the improvement of downstream demand and the enthusiasm of downstream inventory replenishment. In the medium - to - long - term, as production resumes and new production capacity is gradually put into operation, supply - side pressure may gradually emerge [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Caustic Soda Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for caustic soda is 2200 - 2600. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 15.38%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility over 3 years is 6.6% [3]. 3.2 Caustic Soda Risk Management Strategy Suggestions - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, they can sell SH2509 call options at a 50% hedging ratio in the 2600 - 2650 range to collect premiums and short caustic soda futures to lock in profits and cover production costs. They can also sell SH509C2600 call options at a 50% hedging ratio in the 60 - 70 range to lock in the spot selling price if the price rises [3]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low regular inventory and aiming to purchase according to orders, they can buy SH2509 futures at a 50% hedging ratio in the 2350 - 2400 range to prevent price increases and lock in procurement costs. They can also sell SH509P2400 put options at a 50% hedging ratio in the 40 - 50 range to collect premiums and lock in the spot purchase price if the price drops [3]. 3.3 Caustic Soda Futures and Spot Price Information - **Futures Prices and Monthly Spreads**: On July 14, 2025, the price of the caustic soda 05 contract was 2564 (up 28 or 1.1% from July 11), the 09 contract was 2496 (down 11 or - 0.44%), and the 01 contract was 2509 (up 33 or 1.33%). The monthly spread (5 - 9) was 40 (up 6), (9 - 1) was 20 (up 5), and (1 - 5) was - 60 (down 11) [5]. - **Base Prices**: The 05 contract base price (Shandong Jinling) was - 36 (up 5), the 09 contract was 4 (up 11), and the 01 contract was 54 (up 30) [6]. - **Factory Prices**: The 32% caustic soda factory price in Shandong Jinling on July 14, 2025, was 2563 (up 62.5 or 2.5% from July 11). The 50% caustic soda factory price of Jinling was 2660 (up 80 or 3.1%) [6][7]. - **Market Prices**: The flake caustic soda market prices in various regions remained unchanged on July 14, 2025, compared with July 11 [7]. 3.4 Caustic Soda Brand/Regional Spreads - On July 14, 2025, the spread between Shandong 50% caustic soda and 32% caustic soda was 98 (up 17.5), the spread between Jiangsu 49% caustic soda and 32% caustic soda was 13 (up 71), and the spread between Jiangsu - Shandong (32% caustic soda converted to 100%) was 244 (down 31.25) [8]. 3.5 Caustic Soda Futures Monthly Spread Seasonality - Seasonal charts of caustic soda futures monthly spreads (07 - 09), (09 - 11), (11 - 01), and (09 - 1) are provided, sourced from wind and Nanhua Research [10][11].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The spot price of caustic soda is in a downward channel but the decline has slowed, with a possible stabilization expectation. The short - term basis has been repaired. In the medium term, the weak expectation persists due to the concentrated resumption of maintenance and the gradual launch of new production capacity, which will significantly increase the supply - side pressure. Even if there is an increase in demand, it is difficult to reverse the oversupply situation [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Caustic Soda Price Forecast and Volatility - The monthly price range forecast for caustic soda is 2200 - 2400. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 15.20%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility over 3 years is 5.1% [3]. 3.2 Risk Management Strategies - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, they can short caustic soda futures (SH2509) with a 50% hedging ratio in the 2400 - 2450 range to lock in profits and cover production costs. They can also sell call options (SH509C2400) with a 50% ratio in the 30 - 40 range to collect premiums and reduce costs, and lock in the spot selling price if the price rises [3]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low regular inventory hoping to purchase based on orders, they can buy caustic soda futures (SH2509) with a 50% hedging ratio in the 2200 - 2250 range to lock in procurement costs in advance. They can also sell put options (SH509P2200) with a 50% ratio in the 50 - 60 range to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs, and lock in the spot buying price if the price drops [3]. 3.3 Core Contradictions - Short - term contradictions are limited; in the medium - to - long term, there is production capacity launch pressure, and the overall expectation is weak [4]. 3.4利多解读 - The decline in spot prices has slowed, with a possible stabilization expectation; the near - end inventory is not high, and there are limited substantial contradictions [5]. 3.5利空解读 - In the medium - to - long term, there is an oversupply pressure. The supply side has a concentrated production capacity launch expectation, and the demand increment is insufficient to support a market reversal, which limits the upside [6]. 3.6 Caustic Soda Futures Prices and Spreads - **Futures Prices**: On July 1, 2025, the price of the caustic soda 05 contract was 2410 (up 27 or 1.13% from the previous day), the 09 contract was 2358 (up 39 or 1.68%), and the 01 contract was 2354 (up 30 or 1.29%) [7]. - **Spreads**: The 5 - 9 spread was 52 (down 12 from the previous day), the 9 - 1 spread was 4 (up 9), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 56 (up 3) [7]. - **Basis**: The 05 contract basis (Shandong Jinling) was - 66 (down 58 from the previous day), and the 09 contract basis (Shandong Jinling) was - 14 (down 70) [7]. 3.7 Caustic Soda Factory Prices and Market Prices - **32% Caustic Soda Factory Prices**: On July 1, 2025, the prices of some brands in different regions changed. For example, Shandong Jinling's price was 2344 (down 31.25 or - 1.3% from the previous day), and Shandong Hengtong's was 2563 (down 63 or - 2.4%) [8]. - **50% Caustic Soda Factory Prices**: Jinling's price was 2380 (down 60 or - 2.5% from the previous day) [8]. - **Flake Caustic Soda Market Prices**: Prices in various regions remained unchanged on July 1, 2025, such as 3150 in Shandong, 3311 in North China, etc. [9]. 3.8 Caustic Soda Grade/Regional Spreads - On July 1, 2025, some spreads changed. For example, the spread between Shandong 50% caustic soda and 32% caustic soda was 36 (down 28.75 from the previous day), and the spread between 50% caustic soda in Jiangsu and Shandong was 255 (down 103) [9]. 3.9 Caustic Soda Futures Spread Seasonality - Seasonal charts of caustic soda futures spreads (07 - 09, 09 - 11, 11 - 01, 09 - 01) and basis (09, 01 contracts in Shandong) are provided [10][11][12][13].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The spot market for caustic soda is in a downward trend, but the futures market is still at a large discount. In the medium term, the weak expectation persists due to the concentrated resumption of maintenance and the gradual launch of new production capacity, which will significantly increase the supply - side pressure. Even if there is an increase in demand, it is difficult to reverse the oversupply situation [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Sections Core Contradiction - The spot market is weakening. In the medium - to - long - term, there is pressure from new production, the market pattern is deteriorating, and the overall expectation is weak [4]. 利多解读 (Positive Factors) - The near - term inventory is not high, there are limited substantial contradictions, and the futures price is at a discount to the spot price [4]. 利空解读 (Negative Factors) - The procurement price has been reduced twice this week, and the spot price is in a downward channel. In the medium - to - long - term, there is an oversupply pressure, with an expected concentrated launch of production capacity on the supply side, and the increase in demand is insufficient to support a market reversal [4]. Price Forecast and Risk Management - **Price Forecast**: The monthly price range of caustic soda is predicted to be 2300 - 2600. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 19.14%, and its historical percentile in the past 3 years is 20.2% [3]. - **Risk Management Strategies** - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, they can short caustic soda futures (SH2509) at 2600 - 2650 with a 50% hedging ratio to lock in profits and cover production costs. They can also sell call options (SH509C2600) at 30 - 40 with a 50% ratio to collect premiums and lock in the spot selling price if the price rises [3]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low regular inventory and planning to purchase according to orders, they can buy caustic soda futures (SH2509) at 2300 - 2350 with a 50% hedging ratio to lock in procurement costs. They can also sell put options (SH509P2200) at 50 - 60 with a 50% ratio to collect premiums and lock in the spot buying price if the price drops [3]. Price and Spread Data - **Futures Price and Spread**: On June 17, 2025, the price of the caustic soda 05 contract was 2328 (down 1 or - 0.04% from the previous day), the 09 contract was 2273 (down 3 or - 0.13%), and the 01 contract was 2260 (down 10 or - 0.44%). The 5 - 9 spread was 55 (up 2), the 9 - 1 spread was 13 (up 7), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 68 (down 9) [5]. - **Base Price**: The 05 contract base price (Shandong Jinling) was 203 (down 62), the 09 contract base price was 258 (down 60), and the 01 contract base price was 271 (down 53) [5]. - **Factory - Gate Price**: The 32% caustic soda factory - gate price in Shandong Jinling decreased from 2594 to 2531 (down 62.5 or - 2.4%) on June 17, 2025. Some other brands and regions remained stable [6]. - **Market Price**: The flake caustic soda market prices in various regions remained stable on June 17, 2025 [7]. - **Brand/Regional Spread**: The spread between Shandong 50% caustic soda and 32% caustic soda increased from 26 to 89 on June 17, 2025. Some other spreads also changed or remained stable [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, caustic soda prices dropped significantly. The trading logic shifted, and the expectation of a worsened market situation after July strengthened. Additionally, electricity costs had an impact. However, in the short term, the pressure on the spot market is not obvious. There are still many maintenance plans in June, and the spot prices do not have a basis for continuous decline [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for caustic soda is 2300 - 2600. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 25.84%, and the historical percentile (3 - year) is 63.9% [3]. Risk Management Strategies - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, they can short caustic soda futures (SH2509, sell, 50% hedging ratio, entry range 2600 - 2650) to lock in profits and sell call options (SH509C2600, sell, 50% hedging ratio, entry range 30 - 40) to reduce costs. For those worried about price increases in procurement, they can buy caustic soda futures (SH2509, buy, 50% hedging ratio, entry range 2300 - 2350) and sell put options (SH509P2200, sell, 50% hedging ratio, entry range 50 - 60) [3]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low regular procurement inventory and planning to purchase based on orders, they can buy caustic soda futures at the current stage to lock in procurement costs and sell put options to reduce procurement costs [3]. Core Contradictions - In the short term, the fundamentals are not weak, and there is no obvious pressure on the spot market. In the long - term, there is production capacity expansion pressure, the market pattern will worsen, and the expectation is weak [4]. 利多 and 利空 Factors - **Lido Factors**: In the short term, the fundamentals have no obvious pressure. There are still many maintenance plans in June. The profit of the alumina industry on the demand side continues to improve, and non - aluminum exports are improving [5]. - **Risks**: In the long - term, there is an oversupply pressure. There is an expected centralized production capacity expansion on the supply side, and the demand growth is insufficient to support a market reversal [6]. Price and Spread Data - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: On June 9, 2025, the price of the caustic soda 05 contract was 2327, up 12 (0.52%) from June 6; the 09 contract was 2335, up 3 (0.13%); the 01 contract was 2268, up 9 (0.4%). The 5 - 9 spread was - 8, up 9; the 9 - 1 spread was 67, down 6; the 1 - 5 spread was - 59, down 3. The 05 contract basis (Shandong Jinling) was 454.25, down 12; the 09 contract basis was 446.25, down 3; the 01 contract basis was 513.25, down 9 [7]. - **Spot Prices**: On June 9, 2025, among 32 - alkali products, Shandong Jinling's price was 2656, down 125 (- 4.5%) from June 6. Among 50 - alkali products, Shandong Jinling's price was 2640, down 100 (- 3.7%). Most other brands and regions had no price changes. The market price of flake caustic soda in various regions also remained unchanged [8]. - **Price Spreads**: On June 9, 2025, the spread between Shandong 50 - alkali and 32 - alkali was - 16, up 25 from June 6. Some other spreads remained unchanged, while the 50 - alkali spread between Jiangsu and Shandong was 220, up 20; the 50 - alkali spread between Guangdong and Shandong was 530, up 10 [9].