烧碱产业风险管理日报 2025/08/13 寿佳露（投资咨询证号：Z0020569） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 烧碱价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 烧碱 | 2400-2800 | 24.94% | 63.5% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 烧碱风险管理策略建议 | 行为导 | 情景分析 | 现货敞 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 买卖方 | | 套保比例 | 建议入场 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 向 | | 口 | | | 向 | （%） | 区间 | | 库存管 理 | 产成品库存偏高，担心烧碱价格下跌 | 多 | 为了防止存货跌价损失，可以根据企业的库存情况，做空烧碱期货来锁定利 润，弥补企业的生产成本 | SH2511 | 卖出 | 50% | 2750-280 0 | | | | | 卖出看涨期权收取权利金降低成本，若烧碱上涨还可以锁定现货卖出价格 | SH5 ...

日报 . 烧碱产业风险管理日报 2025/08/05 寿佳露（投资咨询证号：Z0020569） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 烧碱价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 烧碱 | 2400-2800 | 24.94% | 63.5% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 烧碱风险管理策略建议 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例（%） | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存管理 产成品库存偏高，担心烧碱价格下 | 跌 | 多 | 为了防止存货跌价损失，可 以根据企业的库存情况，做 卖出看涨期权收取权利金降 | SH2509 | 卖出 | 50% | 2600-2650 | | | | | 空烧碱期货来锁定利润，弥 | | | | | | | | | 补企业的生产成本 | | | | | | | | | 低成本，若烧 ...

2025/07/14 寿佳露（投资咨询证号：Z0020569） 日报 . 烧碱产业风险管理日报 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 烧碱价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 烧碱 | 2200-2600 | 15.38% | 6.6% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 烧碱风险管理策略建议 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例（%） | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存管理 产成品库存偏高，担心烧碱价格下 | 跌 | 多 | 为了防止存货跌价损失，可 以根据企业的库存情况，做 卖出看涨期权收取权利金降 | SH2509 | 卖出 | 50% | 2600-2650 | | | | | 空烧碱期货来锁定利润，弥 | | | | | | | | | 补企业的生产成本 | | | | | | | | | 低成本，若烧碱 ...

2025/07/01 寿佳露（投资咨询证号：Z0020569） 日报 . 烧碱产业风险管理日报 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 烧碱 | 2200-2400 | 15.20% | 5.1% | 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 烧碱价格区间预测 source： 南华研究,同花顺 烧碱风险管理策略建议 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例（%） | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存管理 产成品库存偏高，担心烧碱价格下 | 跌 | 多 | 为了防止存货跌价损失，可 以根据企业的库存情况，做 | SH2509 | 卖出 | 50% | 2400-2450 | | | | | 空烧碱期货来锁定利润，弥 | | | | | | | | | 补企业的生产成本 | | | | | | | | | 卖出看涨期权收取权利金降 | | | | ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 日报 . 烧碱产业风险管理日报 2025/06/17 寿佳露（投资咨询证号：Z0020569） 烧碱价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 烧碱 | 2300-2600 | 19.14% | 20.2% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 烧碱风险管理策略建议 | 行为导 | 情景分析 | 现货敞 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 买卖方 | | 套保比例 | 建议入场 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 向 | | 口 | | | 向 | （%） | 区间 | | 库存管 理 | 产成品库存偏高，担心烧碱价格下跌 | 多 | 为了防止存货跌价损失，可以根据企业的库存情况，做空烧碱期货来锁定利 润，弥补企业的生产成本 | SH2509 | 卖出 | 50% | 2600-265 0 | | | | | 卖出看涨期权收取权利金降低成本，若烧碱上涨还可以锁定现货卖出价格 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, caustic soda prices dropped significantly. The trading logic shifted, and the expectation of a worsened market situation after July strengthened. Additionally, electricity costs had an impact. However, in the short term, the pressure on the spot market is not obvious. There are still many maintenance plans in June, and the spot prices do not have a basis for continuous decline [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for caustic soda is 2300 - 2600. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 25.84%, and the historical percentile (3 - year) is 63.9% [3]. Risk Management Strategies - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, they can short caustic soda futures (SH2509, sell, 50% hedging ratio, entry range 2600 - 2650) to lock in profits and sell call options (SH509C2600, sell, 50% hedging ratio, entry range 30 - 40) to reduce costs. For those worried about price increases in procurement, they can buy caustic soda futures (SH2509, buy, 50% hedging ratio, entry range 2300 - 2350) and sell put options (SH509P2200, sell, 50% hedging ratio, entry range 50 - 60) [3]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low regular procurement inventory and planning to purchase based on orders, they can buy caustic soda futures at the current stage to lock in procurement costs and sell put options to reduce procurement costs [3]. Core Contradictions - In the short term, the fundamentals are not weak, and there is no obvious pressure on the spot market. In the long - term, there is production capacity expansion pressure, the market pattern will worsen, and the expectation is weak [4]. 利多 and 利空 Factors - **Lido Factors**: In the short term, the fundamentals have no obvious pressure. There are still many maintenance plans in June. The profit of the alumina industry on the demand side continues to improve, and non - aluminum exports are improving [5]. - **Risks**: In the long - term, there is an oversupply pressure. There is an expected centralized production capacity expansion on the supply side, and the demand growth is insufficient to support a market reversal [6]. Price and Spread Data - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: On June 9, 2025, the price of the caustic soda 05 contract was 2327, up 12 (0.52%) from June 6; the 09 contract was 2335, up 3 (0.13%); the 01 contract was 2268, up 9 (0.4%). The 5 - 9 spread was - 8, up 9; the 9 - 1 spread was 67, down 6; the 1 - 5 spread was - 59, down 3. The 05 contract basis (Shandong Jinling) was 454.25, down 12; the 09 contract basis was 446.25, down 3; the 01 contract basis was 513.25, down 9 [7]. - **Spot Prices**: On June 9, 2025, among 32 - alkali products, Shandong Jinling's price was 2656, down 125 (- 4.5%) from June 6. Among 50 - alkali products, Shandong Jinling's price was 2640, down 100 (- 3.7%). Most other brands and regions had no price changes. The market price of flake caustic soda in various regions also remained unchanged [8]. - **Price Spreads**: On June 9, 2025, the spread between Shandong 50 - alkali and 32 - alkali was - 16, up 25 from June 6. Some other spreads remained unchanged, while the 50 - alkali spread between Jiangsu and Shandong was 220, up 20; the 50 - alkali spread between Guangdong and Shandong was 530, up 10 [9].

日报 . 烧碱产业风险管理日报 2025/06/05 寿佳露（投资咨询证号：Z0020569） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 烧碱价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 烧碱 | 2300-2600 | 26.71% | 67.0% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 烧碱风险管理策略建议 | 行为导 | 情景分析 | 现货敞 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 买卖方 | | 套保比例 | 建议入场 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 向 | | 口 | | | 向 | （%） | 区间 | | 库存管 | 产成品库存偏高，担心烧碱价格下 | 多 | 为了防止存货跌价损失，可以根据企业的库存情况，做空烧碱期货来锁定利 润，弥补企业的生产成本 | SH2509 | 卖出 | 50% | 2600-265 0 | | 理 | 跌 | | 卖出看涨期权收取权利金降低成本，若烧碱上涨还可以锁定现货卖出价格 ...

日报 . 烧碱产业风险管理日报 2025/05/29 寿佳露（投资咨询证号：Z0020569） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 烧碱价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 烧碱 | 2400-2600 | 24.25% | 47.9% | source： 南华研究 烧碱风险管理策略建议 | 行为导 | 情景分析 | 现货敞 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 买卖方 | | 套保比例 | 建议入场 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 向 | | 口 | | | 向 | （%） | 区间 | | 库存管 理 | 产成品库存偏高，担心烧碱价格下 跌 | | 为了防止存货跌价损失，可以根据企业的库存情况，做空烧碱期货来锁定利 润，弥补企业的生产成本 | SH2509 | 卖出 | 50% | 2600-265 0 | | | | 多 | 卖出看涨期权收取权利金降低成本，若烧碱上涨还可以锁定现货卖出价格 SH5 ...

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Short - term fundamentals support the market, with no obvious pressure on the spot side and no clear downward drivers. In the medium - long term, there is production pressure, which limits the price ceiling, and the market is expected to be volatile [3] - Bullish factors include short - term stable fundamentals, many upcoming maintenance plans, improved alumina profits with复产 expectations, and improved non - aluminum export situation [3] - Bearish factors are medium - long - term oversupply pressure, expected concentrated production on the supply side, and insufficient demand growth to support a market reversal [3] Group 3: Price Forecast and Strategy Price Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for caustic soda is 2400 - 2600. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 24.53%, and its historical percentile over 3 years is 50.1% [4] Strategy Inventory Management - For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, they can short caustic soda futures (SH2509) to lock in profits, with a hedging ratio of 50% and an entry range of 2600 - 2650. They can also sell call options (SH509C2600) to collect premiums, with a hedging ratio of 50% and an entry range of 60 - 70 [4] Procurement Management - For enterprises with low procurement inventory and aiming to purchase based on orders, they can buy caustic soda futures (SH2509) to lock in procurement costs, with a hedging ratio of 50% and an entry range of 2350 - 2400. They can also sell put options (SH509P2400) to collect premiums, with a hedging ratio of 50% and an entry range of 90 - 100 [4] Group 4: Futures and Spot Market Data Futures Market - On May 27, 2025, the prices of caustic soda 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 2441, 2449, and 2394 respectively, with daily changes of - 59 (- 2.36%), - 37 (- 1.49%), and - 62 (- 2.52%) compared to May 26 [4] - The month - spreads (5 - 9), (9 - 1), and (1 - 5) were - 8, 55, and - 47 respectively, with daily changes of - 22, 25, and - 3 [4] - The 05, 09, and 01 contract basis (Shandong Jinling) were 371.5, 363.5, and 418.5 respectively, with daily changes of 121.5, 99.5, and 124.5 [4] Spot Market Liquid Caustic Soda - In Shandong, the 32 - alkali ex - factory prices of Jinling, Haihua, Lutai, and Hengtong on May 27, 2025 were 2813, 2875, 2719, and 2781 respectively, with daily changes of 62.5 (2.3%), 62.5 (2.2%), 31.25 (1.2%), and 62.5 (2.3%) [5][6] - In other regions, the prices of some brands remained unchanged on May 27 compared to May 26 [6] Caustic Soda Flakes - The market prices of caustic soda flakes in most regions remained stable on May 22 compared to May 21, except for a 25 (0.7%) increase in the Southwest region [6] Group 5: Price Difference - On May 27, 2025, the price differences such as Shandong 50 - alkali - 32 - alkali, Jiangsu 49 - alkali - 32 - alkali, etc. showed different daily changes. For example, Shandong 50 - alkali - 32 - alkali decreased by 62.5, while Jiangsu 49 - alkali - 32 - alkali remained unchanged [7]