Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The core contradiction lies in limited improvement in the spot market, with downstream replenishment falling short of expectations. Caustic soda production remains at a high level, leading to continuous supply pressure. In terms of valuation, the price of liquid chlorine is moderately strong, and the chlor - alkali profit stays at a medium - high level, weakening cost support, and alkali plants have no motivation for active production cuts [3]. - There is still an expectation for the alkali - stocking demand of downstream aluminum plants from November to December, which may support the spot market. However, the production of caustic soda remains high, resulting in significant supply pressure. The spot market improvement is limited, and the delivery volume of major aluminum plants remains high. Also, the caustic - chlorine profit is decent, so alkali plants have no incentive to cut production actively [4]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Content Price Forecast and Volatility - The monthly price range forecast for caustic soda is 2200 - 2400. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 15.50%, and its historical percentile over 3 years is 5.9% [2]. Risk Management Strategies - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, they can short caustic soda futures (SH2601, 50% hedging ratio, entry range 2400 - 2450) to lock in profits and compensate for production costs. They can also sell call options (SH601C2400, 50% hedging ratio, entry range 40 - 50) to collect premiums and lower costs. If the price rises, the selling price of the spot can be locked [2]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low regular inventory for procurement and wishing to purchase based on orders, they can buy caustic soda futures (SH2601, 50% hedging ratio, entry range 2200 - 2250) to prevent cost increases due to price hikes and lock in procurement costs in advance. They can also sell put options (SH601P2200, 50% hedging ratio, entry range 40 - 50) to collect premiums and lower procurement costs. If the price drops, the purchase price of the spot can be locked [2]. Futures and Spot Prices - **Futures Prices**: On November 17, 2025, the price of the caustic soda 05 contract was 2438, down 44 (-1.77%) from November 14; the 09 contract was 2525, down 61 (-2.36%); the 01 contract was 2291, down 36 (-1.55%) [5]. - **Spot Prices**: On November 17, 2025, the 32 - alkali ex - factory price of Shandong Jinling was 2344, down 62.5 (-2.6%) from November 14. The 50 - alkali ex - factory price of Jinling was 2360, down 20 (-0.8%) [5][7]. Price Differences - **Brand/Regional Price Differences**: On November 17, 2025, the difference between Shandong 50 - alkali and 32 - alkali was 16, up 42.5 from November 14. Other differences such as Jiangsu 49 - alkali minus 32 - alkali remained unchanged [8]. - **Monthly Price Differences**: On November 17, 2025, the monthly difference (5 - 9) was - 87, up 17 from November 14; the monthly difference (9 - 1) was 234, down 25; the monthly difference (1 - 5) was - 147, up 8 [5].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The caustic soda market is currently in a situation of strong supply and weak demand, with inventory replenishment falling short of expectations, upstream inventory accumulation, and weak spot prices. Meanwhile, liquid chlorine is strong, leading to a decline in cost support [3]. - There are still expectations for the downstream aluminum plants' demand for caustic soda inventory in November - December, which may boost the spot market [3]. 3. Content Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Forecast and Volatility - The monthly price range forecast for caustic soda is 2200 - 2400. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 22.75%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility over 3 years is 43.8% [2]. 3.2 Risk Management Strategies - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, they can short caustic soda futures (SH2601) with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 2400 - 2450, or sell call options (SH601C2400) with a 50% ratio at an entry range of 40 - 50 to lock in profits and reduce costs [2]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low regular inventory and hoping to purchase according to orders, they can buy caustic soda futures (SH2601) with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 2200 - 2250, or sell put options (SH601P2200) with a 50% ratio at an entry range of 40 - 50 to lock in purchase costs and reduce expenses [2]. 3.3 Market Data - **Futures Prices and Changes**: On October 31, 2025, the price of the caustic soda 05 contract was 2483 (up 3 or 0.12% from the previous day), the 09 contract was 2567 (down 4 or - 0.16%), and the 01 contract was 2310 (down 7 or - 0.3%) [4]. - **Spot Prices**: The 32 - alkali ex - factory prices in Shandong (Jinling and Haihua), Jiangsu (Xinpu, Jinqiao, etc.), and other regions remained mostly unchanged on October 31, 2025, except for a 1.5% decline in Shaanxi Beiyuan. The 50 - alkali and flake caustic soda prices also showed little change in most regions, with some slight declines in Shandong and Shaanxi [4][7][8]. - **Price Spreads**: The monthly spreads (5 - 9), (9 - 1), and (1 - 5) of caustic soda futures showed some changes on October 31, 2025. The brand/regional spreads of caustic soda remained mostly stable, with a slight decline in the 50 - alkali spread between Guangdong and Shandong [4][8]. 3.4 Market Influencing Factors - **Positive Factors**: There are expectations for the downstream aluminum plants' demand for caustic soda inventory in November - December, which may boost the spot market [3]. - **Negative Factors**: The caustic soda market is facing a situation of strong supply and weak demand. Alkali plants have high profits, leading to increased production and supply pressure. Non - aluminum inventory replenishment demand is lower than expected, and the alumina market is under pressure, which may affect the demand for caustic soda [3][6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Currently, the maintenance of some facilities in Shandong provides slight support to the spot market, alleviating the spot pressure. However, the maintenance will gradually resume next week, and the performance of the spot market should be observed. Additionally, attention should be paid to the reduction amplitude of alumina production [3] 3. Summary Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Forecast and Risk Management - The monthly price range forecast for caustic soda is 2300 - 2600 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 25.92% and a historical percentile of 67.1% over three years [2] - For inventory management, when the finished - product inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops, enterprises can short caustic soda futures (SH2601) at 2600 - 2650 yuan/ton with a 50% hedging ratio to lock in profits, and sell call options (SH601C2680) at 60 - 70 yuan/ton with a 50% ratio to collect premiums and reduce costs [2] - For procurement management, when the regular procurement inventory is low, enterprises can buy caustic soda futures (SH2601) at 2300 - 2350 yuan/ton with a 50% hedging ratio to lock in procurement costs, and sell put options (SH601P2320) at 70 - 80 yuan/ton with a 50% ratio to collect premiums and reduce costs [2] 3.2 Core Contradictions and Influencing Factors - Core contradictions: Near - term replenishment is below expectations, the spot market is weak, and there are medium - to - long - term production capacity expansion pressures and policy expectations [3] - Bullish factors: Some facilities in Shandong are under maintenance, leading to a decline in supply. The inventory of 32% caustic soda has decreased, providing slight support to the spot market [3] - Bearish factors: The alumina market is under pressure, local supply adjustments have begun, and the operating rate shows signs of a slight decline, which may affect the demand expectation for caustic soda [3] 3.3 Price and Spread Data - On October 22, 2025, the price of the caustic soda 05 contract was 2475 yuan/ton, up 0.08% from the previous day; the 09 contract was 2558 yuan/ton, down 0.12%; the 01 contract was 2380 yuan/ton, up 0.21% [3] - The 32% caustic soda ex - factory prices in various regions on October 22, 2025, remained mostly unchanged, except for a 1.5% decrease in the price of Beiyuan in Shaanxi [4][6] - The 50% caustic soda ex - factory prices in various regions on October 22, 2025, remained unchanged [6] - The flake caustic soda market prices in most regions on October 22, 2025, decreased, with declines ranging from 0.2% to 1.5% [7] - Some caustic soda brand/regional spreads on October 22, 2025, remained unchanged, while the northwest 99% - 50% caustic soda spread decreased by 51 yuan/ton, and the 50% caustic soda (Guangdong - Shandong) spread decreased by 10 yuan/ton [7] 3.4 Seasonal Data - The report presents the seasonal charts of caustic soda month - spreads (11 - 12), (12 - 01), (11 - 01), (01 - 03), (01 - 05), (05 - 09) and the seasonal charts of caustic soda 09 and 01 contract basis in Shandong [8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core View - The current spot market shows no obvious restocking behavior, slightly falling short of expectations, and the spot price is oscillating weakly. It may wait for the spot price to bottom out to stimulate speculative demand. The market still anticipates subsequent periodic restocking in non - aluminum sectors, but it remains to be seen whether this expectation will be falsified. In the long - term, high profits limit the price increase, and there is continuous production capacity expansion pressure. The implementation and timing of downstream alumina production capacity expansion may vary, affecting the periodic restocking rhythm [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Forecast and Volatility - The monthly price range forecast for caustic soda is 2400 - 2650, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 19.96% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 25.2% [2] 3.2 Risk Management Strategies Inventory Management - For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, they can short caustic soda futures (SH2601, sell, 50% hedging ratio, entry range 2600 - 2650) to lock in profits and offset production costs; sell call options (SH601C2680, sell, 50% hedging ratio, entry range 60 - 70) to collect premiums and reduce costs, and lock in the spot selling price if the price rises. For those concerned about price increases in procurement, they can buy caustic soda futures (SH2601, buy, 50% hedging ratio, entry range 2400 - 2450) to lock in procurement costs in advance [2] Procurement Management - For enterprises with low regular inventory and planning to purchase based on orders, they can sell put options (SH601P2400, sell, 50% hedging ratio, entry range 70 - 80) to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs, and lock in the spot purchase price if the price drops [2] 3.3 Market Analysis Core Contradictions - Near - term restocking falls short of expectations, the spot market is weak; there is production capacity expansion pressure and policy expectations in the medium - to - long term [3] 利多 and 利空 Analysis - There is limited real - world pressure in areas outside Shandong. However, Shandong faces significant spot pressure, and the spot price may weaken after the periodic restocking ends. The profit is moderately high [3] 3.4 Price and Spread Data Futures Price and Spread - On October 15, 2025, the caustic soda 05 contract was 2539 (up 6 or 0.24% from the previous day), the 09 contract was 2592 (up 4 or 0.15%), and the 01 contract was 2438 (up 10 or 0.41%). The month - spread (5 - 9) was - 53 (up 2), (9 - 1) was 154 (down 6), and (1 - 5) was - 101 (up 4) [4] Spot Price - The 32% caustic soda ex - factory price in different regions on October 15, 2025: Shandong (Jingling 2406, unchanged), (Haihua 2656, unchanged), (Lutai 2875, unchanged), (Hengtong 2750, up 63 or 2.3%); Jiangsu (Xinpu 3088, unchanged), (Jinqiao 2837.5, unchanged); Zhejiang (Zhenyang 3419, unchanged); Shaanxi (Beiyuan 3350, unchanged). The 50% caustic soda ex - factory price: Jinling 2480 (unchanged), Lutai 2800 (unchanged), Beiyuan 3420 (unchanged). The flake caustic soda market price in different regions remained unchanged on October 15, 2025 [5][6] Price and Spread Differences - The price differences between different caustic soda grades and regions on October 15, 2025: Shandong 50% - 32% caustic soda was 74 (unchanged); Jiangsu 49% - 32% caustic soda was 31 (unchanged); Jiangsu 48% - 32% caustic soda was 83 (unchanged); Northwest 99% - 50% caustic soda was 533 (unchanged); Jiangsu - Shandong (32% caustic soda converted to 100%) was 150 (unchanged); 50% caustic soda (Jiangsu - Shandong) was 420 (unchanged); 50% caustic soda (Guangdong - Shandong) was 620 (down 10) [6]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The current spot price of caustic soda is weakening. The supply - side production fluctuates normally due to maintenance, and the chlor - alkali profit remains above 300. Non - aluminum demand is the main rigid demand, and the pre - holiday restocking is less than expected. The future market depends on the spot price rhythm, the prosperity of the peak season, and the downstream restocking enthusiasm [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Price Forecast and Volatility - The monthly price range forecast for caustic soda is 2500 - 2900 yuan/ton. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 22.00%, and its historical percentile over 3 years is 39.1% [2]. 3.2 Risk Management Strategies - **Inventory Management**: - For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, they can short caustic soda futures (SH2601) with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 2800 - 2850 yuan/ton to lock in profits and cover production costs. They can also sell call options (SH601C2800) with a 50% ratio at an entry range of 70 - 80 to collect premiums and reduce costs, and lock in the spot selling price if the price rises [2]. - **Procurement Management**: - For enterprises with low regular inventory and planning to purchase based on orders, they can buy caustic soda futures (SH2601) with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 2500 - 2550 yuan/ton to lock in procurement costs. They can also sell put options (SH601P2480) with a 50% ratio at an entry range of 70 - 80 to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs, and lock in the spot purchase price if the price drops [2]. 3.3 Market Data - **Caustic Soda Futures Contracts**: - On September 26, 2025, the price of the caustic soda 05 contract was 2623 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan or 0.34% from the previous day; the 09 contract was 2661 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan or 0.26%; the 01 contract was 2528 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan or 0.35% [3]. - The month - spread (5 - 9) was - 38 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; the month - spread (9 - 1) was 133 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan; the month - spread (1 - 5) was - 95 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. - The 05 contract basis (Shandong Jinling) was - 217 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan; the 09 contract basis was - 255 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan; the 01 contract basis was - 122 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan [3]. - **Caustic Soda Factory Prices**: - The ex - factory prices of 32% caustic soda and 50% caustic soda from various brands in different regions on September 26, 2025, remained unchanged compared to the previous day [4][6]. - **Flake Caustic Soda Market Prices**: - The market prices of flake caustic soda in different regions on September 26, 2025, remained unchanged compared to the previous day [7]. - **Price Spreads**: - The price spreads between different grades and regions of caustic soda on September 26, 2025, remained unchanged compared to the previous day [7]. 3.4 Seasonal Data - Seasonal charts of caustic soda futures month - spreads (09 - 11, 11 - 01, 01 - 03, 09 - 01) and basis (09 and 01 contracts in Shandong) are provided, but no specific data analysis is given in the text [8][9].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The current spot price of caustic soda is weakening. The supply-side production fluctuates normally due to maintenance, and the chlor-alkali profit remains above 300. There is still restocking expectation in non-aluminum downstream, and the non-aluminum rigid demand is seasonally recovering. The future market depends on the spot rhythm, the strength of the peak season, and the enthusiasm of downstream inventory preparation [3] Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs 1. Caustic Soda Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for caustic soda is 2500 - 2900 yuan/ton, with a current 20-day rolling volatility of 20.66% and a historical percentile of 28.5% over 3 years [2] 2. Caustic Soda Risk Management Strategy Suggestions Inventory Management - For enterprises with high finished product inventory worried about price decline, they can short caustic soda futures (SH2601) at 2800 - 2850 yuan/ton with a hedging ratio of 50% to lock in profits and cover production costs; they can also sell call options (SH601C2800) at 70 - 80 yuan with a hedging ratio of 50% to collect premiums and reduce costs, and lock in the spot selling price if the price rises [2] Procurement Management - For enterprises with low regular procurement inventory and willing to purchase according to orders, they can buy caustic soda futures (SH2601) at 2500 - 2550 yuan/ton with a hedging ratio of 50% to prevent price increases and lock in procurement costs; they can also sell put options (SH601P2480) at 70 - 80 yuan with a hedging ratio of 50% to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs, and lock in the spot buying price if the price falls [2] 3. Caustic Soda Futures Price and Spread - On September 19, 2025, the prices of caustic soda 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 2723, 2734, and 2641 yuan/ton respectively, with daily increases of 2.06%, 1.64%, and 2.36% compared to the previous day. The spreads (5 - 9), (9 - 1), and (1 - 5) were -11, 93, and -82 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of 11, -17, and 6 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. The basis of 05, 09, and 01 contracts (Shandong Jinling) were -317, -328, and -235 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of -55, -44, and -61 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [3] 4. Factory Price of 32% Caustic Soda Converted to Futures Price - On September 19, 2025, the factory prices of 32% caustic soda converted to futures price in different regions and brands showed little change compared to the previous day, except for Lutai in Shandong, which decreased by 2.2% to 2781 yuan/ton [4][6] 5. Factory Price of 50% Caustic Soda Converted to Futures Price - On September 19, 2025, the factory prices of 50% caustic soda converted to futures price in different brands showed little change compared to the previous day, except for Lutai, which decreased by 1.5% to 2720 yuan/ton [6] 6. Market Price of Flake Caustic Soda - On September 19, 2025, the market prices of flake caustic soda in different regions showed no change compared to the previous day [7] 7. Caustic Soda Grade/Regional Spread - On September 19, 2025, most caustic soda grade/regional spreads showed no change compared to the previous day, except for the spread of 50% caustic soda between Guangdong and Shandong, which increased by 50 yuan/ton to 640 yuan/ton [7] 8. Seasonality of Caustic Soda Futures Spreads and Basis - The report provides the seasonality charts of caustic soda futures spreads (09 - 11, 11 - 01, 01 - 03, 09 - 01) and the seasonality charts of caustic soda 09 and 01 contract basis in Shandong [8][9]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The near - term spot price range of caustic soda is relatively stable with no obvious price cuts. The delivery volume of downstream alumina plants continues to increase, but the price remains stable. Alkali plants keep reducing inventory, though the slope slows down. Supply output decreases slightly due to maintenance, which is a normal fluctuation. The cost remains stable, and the chlor - alkali profit stays above 300. Non - aluminum downstream is in the transition between the off - season and peak season, and the non - aluminum rigid demand is expected to increase seasonally. The future market should continue to focus on the spot rhythm, the strength of the peak season, and the downstream restocking enthusiasm [3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Caustic Soda Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for caustic soda is 2500 - 2900. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 23.49%, and the current volatility's historical percentile over 3 years is 49.4% [2]. Caustic Soda Risk Management Strategy Suggestions Inventory Management - When the finished product inventory is high and there is a concern about caustic soda price decline, to prevent inventory depreciation losses, enterprises can short caustic soda futures according to their inventory to lock in profits and cover production costs. The recommended contract is SH2601, with a selling position and a hedging ratio of 50%, and the suggested entry range is 2800 - 2850. They can also sell call options to collect premiums and reduce costs. If the caustic soda price rises, the spot selling price can be locked. The recommended option is SH601C3000, with a selling position, a hedging ratio of 50%, and the suggested entry range is 70 - 80 [2]. - When the purchase of regular inventory is low and there is a need to purchase according to orders, to prevent the caustic soda price from rising and increasing procurement costs, enterprises can buy caustic soda futures at present to lock in procurement costs in advance. The recommended contract is SH2601, with a buying position, a hedging ratio of 50%, and the suggested entry range is 2600 - 2650. They can also sell put options to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs. If the caustic soda price falls, the spot purchase price can be locked. The recommended option is SH601P2600, with a selling position, a hedging ratio of 50%, and the suggested entry range is 70 - 80 [2]. Caustic Soda Futures Price and Spread - On September 2, 2025, compared with September 1, 2025, the price of the caustic soda 05 contract increased by 35 to 2794, with a daily increase of 1.27%; the 09 contract increased by 40 to 2528, with a daily increase of 1.61%; the 01 contract increased by 65 to 2735, with a daily increase of 2.43%. The 5 - 9 spread decreased by 5 to 266; the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 25 to - 207; the 1 - 5 spread increased by 30 to - 59. The 05 - contract basis (Shandong Jinling) decreased by 35 to - 107; the 09 - contract basis decreased by 40 to 160; the 01 - contract basis decreased by 65 to - 48 [3]. Factory - Gate Prices of Different Caustic Soda Products - On September 1, 2025, for 32% caustic soda, among different brands in Shandong, Jinling's price was 2688 (unchanged), Haihua's was 2906 (unchanged), Lutai's increased by 62.5 to 2875 with a daily increase of 2.2%, and Hengtong's was 2781 (unchanged). In other regions, Jiangsu Xinyu's was 3125 (unchanged), Jiangsu Jinqiao's was 2775 (unchanged), Zhejiang Zhenyang's was 3419 (unchanged), and Shaanxi Beiyuan's was 3600 (unchanged). For 50% caustic soda, Jinling's price was 2620 (unchanged), Lutai's increased by 40 to 2760 with a daily increase of 1.5%, and Beiyuan's was 3420 (unchanged) [5]. Flake Caustic Soda Market Prices - On September 1, 2025, compared with August 29, 2025, flake caustic soda prices in different regions remained unchanged. In Shandong, it was 3400; in North China, it was 3564; in Southwest China, it was 3590; in Central China, it was 3540; in East China, it was 3590; in Northwest China, it was 3200 [6]. Caustic Soda Grade/Regional Spreads - On September 1, 2025, compared with August 29, 2025, most caustic soda grade/regional spreads remained unchanged. Shandong 50% caustic soda - 32% caustic soda was - 68 (unchanged); Jiangsu 49% caustic soda - 32% caustic soda was 13 (unchanged); Jiangsu 48% caustic soda - 32% caustic soda was 94 (unchanged); Northwest 99% caustic soda - 50% caustic soda was 382 (unchanged); Jiangsu - Shandong (32% caustic soda converted to 100%) was - 6 (unchanged); 50% caustic soda (Jiangsu - Shandong) was 137 (unchanged), and 50% caustic soda (Guangdong - Shandong) increased by 10 to 430 [6]. Seasonal Patterns of Caustic Soda Futures Spreads and Basis - The document provides seasonal charts of caustic soda futures spreads (09 - 11, 11 - 01, 01 - 03, 09 - 01) and basis (09 - contract and 01 - contract in Shandong) over different years (2023, 2024, 2025) [6][7][8].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Entering August, the 09 contract may start to follow the delivery logic. Attention should be paid to the warehouse receipt pressure, with a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength. Fundamentally, there has been price decline and inventory accumulation in the near term, and the price of Shandong liquid caustic soda has gradually declined. The supply output is expected to continue to rise. The cost remains stable, but with the increase in liquid chlorine price, the chlor - alkali profit has recovered. The non - aluminum downstream is in the off - season. In the future, attention should be paid to the prosperity of the peak season, the improvement of downstream demand, and the enthusiasm of downstream inventory replenishment. In the long - term, with the resumption of production and the gradual release of new production capacity, the pressure on the supply side may gradually emerge [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Price Forecast and Risk Management - **Price Forecast**: The monthly price range forecast for caustic soda is 2400 - 2800 yuan/ton. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 24.94%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility in the past 3 years is 63.5% [2]. - **Risk Management Strategies** - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price decline, they can short caustic soda futures (contract SH2511, sell, hedge ratio 50%, recommended entry range 2750 - 2800 yuan/ton) to lock in profits and make up for production costs. They can also sell call options (contract SH511C2760, sell, hedge ratio 50%, recommended entry range 70 - 80) to collect premiums and reduce costs [2]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low regular inventory and hoping to purchase according to orders, they can buy caustic soda futures (contract SH2511, buy, hedge ratio 50%, recommended entry range 2400 - 2450 yuan/ton) to lock in procurement costs in advance. They can also sell put options (contract SH511P2440, sell, hedge ratio 50%, recommended entry range 40 - 60) to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs [2]. 3.2 Core Contradictions,利多, and利空 Analysis - **Core Contradictions**: Near - term warehouse receipts and spot prices are under pressure; there is production capacity expansion pressure and policy expectations in the medium - to - long - term [3]. - **Lido Factors**: Near - term spot prices fluctuate within a range; there are expectations of cost increase and device elimination [3]. - **Lido Factors**: The current demand is average; there is high near - term warehouse receipt pressure; there is an oversupply pressure in the medium - to - long - term [3]. 3.3 Price and Spread Data - **Caustic Soda Futures Prices and Daily Changes**: On August 13, 2025, the price of the caustic soda 05 contract was 2703 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan (- 0.7%) from the previous day; the 09 contract was 2481 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan (- 0.84%); the 01 contract was 2614 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan (- 0.83%) [4]. - **Caustic Soda Futures Month - spreads**: The month - spread (5 - 9) was 222 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan from the previous day; the month - spread (9 - 1) was - 133 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan; the month - spread (1 - 5) was - 89 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan [4]. - **Caustic Soda Futures Basis**: The basis of the 05 contract (Shandong Jinling) was - 266 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan from the previous day; the 09 contract basis was - 44 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan; the 01 contract basis was - 177 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan [4]. - **Caustic Soda Factory Prices**: The ex - factory price of 32% caustic soda in different regions and brands had different changes. For example, the price of Jinling in Shandong remained unchanged at 2438 yuan/ton, while the price of 50% caustic soda of Jinling increased by 60 yuan/ton to 2540 yuan/ton [6]. - **Caustic Soda Market Prices**: The market price of flake caustic soda in different regions had different changes. For example, in Shandong, it decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 3300 yuan/ton, and in the Northwest, it decreased by 120 yuan/ton to 3130 yuan/ton [7]. - **Caustic Soda Grade/Regional Spreads**: The spreads between different grades and regions of caustic soda had different changes. For example, the spread between Shandong 50% caustic soda and 32% caustic soda increased by 60 yuan/ton to 103 yuan/ton, and the spread between 50% caustic soda in Jiangsu and Shandong decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 237 yuan/ton [7].

Group 1: Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided reports. Group 2: Core View - As August approaches, the 09 contract may start to follow the delivery logic, and attention should be paid to the warehouse receipt pressure. Fundamentally, the near - term price has dropped and inventory has accumulated. The price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong has started to decline slightly, and the supply output is expected to continue to recover. The cost remains stable, but with the increase in liquid chlorine price, the profit of chlor - alkali has recovered. The non - aluminum downstream is in the off - season. In the future, attention should be paid to the prosperity of the peak season, the improvement of downstream demand, and the enthusiasm of downstream inventory preparation. In the long - term, with the resumption of production and the gradual launch of new production capacity, the supply pressure may gradually emerge [2]. Group 3: Summary by Related Content 1. Price Forecast and Volatility - The monthly price range forecast for caustic soda is 2400 - 2800. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 24.94%, and the historical percentile (3 - year) of the current volatility is 63.5% [1]. 2. Risk Management Strategy Inventory Management - For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price decline, they can sell call options (SH2509, 50% hedging ratio, recommended entry range 2600 - 2650) to collect premiums and short caustic soda futures to lock in profits and cover production costs. They can also sell call options (SH509C2600, 50% hedging ratio, recommended entry range 50 - 60) to lock in the spot selling price if the price rises [1]. Procurement Management - For enterprises with low regular inventory and planning to purchase according to orders, they can buy caustic soda futures (SH2601, 50% hedging ratio, recommended entry range 2350 - 2400) to prevent price increases and lock in procurement costs. They can also sell put options (SH601P2400, 50% hedging ratio, recommended entry range 60 - 70) to collect premiums and lock in the spot purchase price if the price drops [1]. 3. Price and Spread Data Futures Price - On August 5, 2025, the price of the caustic soda 05 contract was 2690 (up 2 from the previous day, a daily increase of 0.07%); the 09 contract was 2506 (down 23, a daily decrease of - 0.91%); the 01 contract was 2592 (down 14, a daily decrease of - 0.54%) [2]. Futures Spread - The spread (5 - 9) was 184 (up 25 from the previous day); the spread (9 - 1) was - 86 (down 9); the spread (1 - 5) was - 98 (down 16) [2]. Basis - The basis of the 05 contract (Shandong Jinling) was - 128 (down 2); the basis of the 09 contract (Shandong Jinling) was 57 (up 23) [2]. Factory Price - For 32% caustic soda, the ex - factory prices of various brands in different regions remained unchanged on August 5, 2025, compared with the previous day. For 50% caustic soda, the ex - factory price of Jinling dropped by 40 (- 1.6%), and that of Lutai increased by 40 (1.5%), while Beiyuan remained unchanged [3]. Market Price - The market prices of flake caustic soda in different regions remained unchanged on August 5, 2025, compared with the previous day [4]. Brand/Regional Spread - The spread of Shandong 50% caustic soda - 32% caustic soda decreased by 20 on August 5, 2025, compared with August 4, while other spreads remained unchanged [4]. 4. Seasonal Data - There are seasonal data on caustic soda futures spreads (07 - 09, 09 - 11, 11 - 01, 09 - 01) and basis (09 contract, 01 contract in Shandong), but no specific numerical analysis is provided in the text [5][6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall commodity market is strong, showing a resonant upward trend. Fundamentally, caustic soda has strengthened in the near - term, and the decline in liquid chlorine has led to cost increases. Shandong's liquid caustic soda inventory is low year - on - year, with little spot pressure, and the market may anticipate the peak season. In the short - term, attention should be paid to the improvement of downstream demand and the enthusiasm of downstream inventory replenishment. In the medium - to - long - term, as production resumes and new production capacity is gradually put into operation, supply - side pressure may gradually emerge [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Caustic Soda Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for caustic soda is 2200 - 2600. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 15.38%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility over 3 years is 6.6% [3]. 3.2 Caustic Soda Risk Management Strategy Suggestions - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, they can sell SH2509 call options at a 50% hedging ratio in the 2600 - 2650 range to collect premiums and short caustic soda futures to lock in profits and cover production costs. They can also sell SH509C2600 call options at a 50% hedging ratio in the 60 - 70 range to lock in the spot selling price if the price rises [3]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low regular inventory and aiming to purchase according to orders, they can buy SH2509 futures at a 50% hedging ratio in the 2350 - 2400 range to prevent price increases and lock in procurement costs. They can also sell SH509P2400 put options at a 50% hedging ratio in the 40 - 50 range to collect premiums and lock in the spot purchase price if the price drops [3]. 3.3 Caustic Soda Futures and Spot Price Information - **Futures Prices and Monthly Spreads**: On July 14, 2025, the price of the caustic soda 05 contract was 2564 (up 28 or 1.1% from July 11), the 09 contract was 2496 (down 11 or - 0.44%), and the 01 contract was 2509 (up 33 or 1.33%). The monthly spread (5 - 9) was 40 (up 6), (9 - 1) was 20 (up 5), and (1 - 5) was - 60 (down 11) [5]. - **Base Prices**: The 05 contract base price (Shandong Jinling) was - 36 (up 5), the 09 contract was 4 (up 11), and the 01 contract was 54 (up 30) [6]. - **Factory Prices**: The 32% caustic soda factory price in Shandong Jinling on July 14, 2025, was 2563 (up 62.5 or 2.5% from July 11). The 50% caustic soda factory price of Jinling was 2660 (up 80 or 3.1%) [6][7]. - **Market Prices**: The flake caustic soda market prices in various regions remained unchanged on July 14, 2025, compared with July 11 [7]. 3.4 Caustic Soda Brand/Regional Spreads - On July 14, 2025, the spread between Shandong 50% caustic soda and 32% caustic soda was 98 (up 17.5), the spread between Jiangsu 49% caustic soda and 32% caustic soda was 13 (up 71), and the spread between Jiangsu - Shandong (32% caustic soda converted to 100%) was 244 (down 31.25) [8]. 3.5 Caustic Soda Futures Monthly Spread Seasonality - Seasonal charts of caustic soda futures monthly spreads (07 - 09), (09 - 11), (11 - 01), and (09 - 1) are provided, sourced from wind and Nanhua Research [10][11].