Group 1: Report Information - Report title: Pig Daily Report [1] - Date: June 04, 2025 [2] - Research team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Futures - On June 3, the main 2509 contract of live pigs opened slightly lower, then rose and fell back, closing with a decline. The highest price was 13,645 yuan/ton, the lowest was 13,485 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 1510 yuan/ton, down 0.81% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index increased by 3497 lots to 162,323 lots [6] Spot - On June 3, the average price of ternary pigs nationwide was 14.36 yuan/kg, down 0.06 yuan/kg from the previous day [6] Demand - Currently, the price difference between fat and standard pigs is inverted, and the utilization rate of pigsties is relatively high. The enthusiasm for secondary fattening to replenish the inventory has decreased, and most are waiting and watching. As the temperature rises, terminal demand weakens. After the Dragon Boat Festival, the orders of slaughtering enterprises have significantly decreased, and the operating rate and slaughter volume of slaughtering enterprises have declined. On June 3, the slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises was 144,300 heads, 500 heads less than the previous day and 7000 heads less than a week ago [6] Supply - According to Yongyi sample data, the slaughter volume of the breeding side in June may continue to increase month-on-month. The breeding side slaughters normally, and with the successive slaughter of previously secondarily fattened pigs, the slaughter weight remains high [6] Overall Situation - Overall, supply tends to increase, demand weakens again after the festival, and the supply and demand remain loose. The spot price of live pigs is mainly weak. Pay continued attention to the rhythm of secondary fattening in the later stage. Currently, all futures contracts are at a discount to the spot. Affected by the off-season of demand, loose supply and demand, and the expected slaughter of secondarily fattened pigs, they are mainly weak [6] Group 3: Industry News - According to Yongyi Information data, in the week of May 23, the average market sales price of 15kg piglets was 627 yuan/head, down 3 yuan/head from the previous week [9] - As of May 23, the average profit per self - bred and self - raised pig was 138 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 31 yuan/head; the average profit per pig fattened with purchased piglets was 93 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 25 yuan/head [9] Group 4: Data Overview Average Slaughter Weight - In the week of May 23, the national average slaughter weight was 129.38 kg, down 0.33 kg from the previous week, a week - on - week decline of 0.25%, a month - on - month increase of 0.34%, and a year - on - year increase of 2.91% [18] Slaughter Volume - In the week of May 23, the slaughter volume of the slaughter sample was 1.5964 million heads, 500 less than the previous week, a week - on - week decline of 0.03%; the average daily slaughter volume of the daily slaughter sample was 144,347 heads, 3194 less than the previous week, with an average daily decline of 2.16% [18] Breeding Cost - As of May 23, the expected cost of self - bred and self - raised pigs was 13.09 yuan/kg, remaining the same week - on - week. The cost of fattening pigs with purchased piglets was affected by both feed prices and piglet prices. The expected cost of fattening purchased piglets to 125 kg and then slaughtering was 15.06 yuan/kg, a week - on - week decrease of 0.03 yuan/kg [18]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The supply side is facing a double - negative situation of "theoretical supply pressure increase" and "high live - animal inventory". The demand side is expected to weaken seasonally with only limited increase around the Dragon Boat Festival. Overall, the spot price is likely to adjust weakly. For trading, a short - selling strategy is recommended for near - term contracts, while long - buying opportunities on dips can be considered for far - term contracts. The reverse spread strategy of LH2509 - LH2601 contracts should be continuously monitored [2][21]. 3. Summary by Directory 1. Supply Situation Analysis - The live - animal inventory is shifting from "accumulation" to "reduction", but the overall average weight of slaughtered pigs remains high, and there is no significant increase in slaughter volume, indicating slow inventory reduction. From October 2024 to March 2025, the number of newborn piglets increased by 7% year - on - year, suggesting a significant increase in pig slaughter from April to September [21]. 2. Demand Situation Analysis - As the weather gets hotter, demand is expected to weaken seasonally. Although there may be some increase in demand around the Dragon Boat Festival, the increase is limited based on the current market situation [2][21]. 3. Cost - Profit Analysis - The report mentions figures related to self - breeding and self - raising profit per head and profit per head from purchasing piglets, but no specific analysis of cost - profit is provided in the given text. 4. Market Outlook - The analysis of supply and demand is consistent with the previous parts. It is recommended to take a short - selling approach for near - term contracts and look for long - buying opportunities on dips for far - term contracts. Continue to focus on the reverse spread strategy of LH2509 - LH2601 contracts, and investors should pay close attention to factors such as the slaughter rhythm of the breeding side, demand changes, policy orientation, and epidemics [2][21].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term hog prices may fluctuate, and in the medium - to - long - term, hog prices may still hit new lows [4] - The basis is that from sow and piglet data, hog supplies in Q2, Q3, and Q4 of 2025 are abundant, demand support in Q2 and Q3 is weak, current hog slaughter weight is increasing, and although there is uncertainty about new lows in the medium - to - long - term, the short - term market has no strong motivation to reduce weight and the futures price is in a reasonable range [4] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Dynamics - On May 15, the number of registered hog warehouse receipts was 701 lots [2] - The LH2507 contract is mainly about spot - futures convergence and delivery game, and the far - month contracts are fluctuating weakly due to the possible increase in subsequent slaughter volume [2] - The main contract (LH2509) added 5,221 lots today, with a position of about 77,600 lots, a maximum price of 14,015 yuan/ton, a minimum price of 13,735 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 13,780 yuan/ton [2] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the number of fertile sows, the hog supply from March to December is expected to increase monthly but with a limited range. From the piglet data, the hog slaughter volume will increase in Q2 and Q3 of 2025. The first half of the year is the off - season for demand, and the second half is the peak season [3] - Based on historical situations and current fundamentals, the fat - standard price difference may fluctuate and adjust [3] - Short - side logic: The breeding side has not reduced weight, subsequent slaughter volume is expected to increase, and demand support in Q2 and Q3 is limited. Long - side logic: There is still room for an increase in frozen product inventory, the spot price is firm, the increase in subsequent slaughter volume is limited, and rising corn and soybean meal prices may increase hog breeding costs [3] 3.3 Strategy Suggestions - The view is that short - term hog prices may fluctuate, and in the medium - to - long - term, there may be new lows [4] - The core logic includes abundant hog supplies in Q2, Q3, and Q4 of 2025, weak demand support in Q2 and Q3, increasing hog slaughter weight indicating inventory accumulation by the breeding side, and although there may be new lows in the medium - to - long - term, due to high uncertainty and weak short - term weight - reduction motivation, it is recommended to wait and see [4] 3.4 Market Overview - On May 15, the national average hog slaughter price was 14.68 yuan/kg, down 0.06 yuan/kg or 0.41% from the previous day. The prices in Henan and Sichuan also decreased [6] - Futures prices of various contracts decreased, with the 09 - contract dropping by 240 yuan/ton or 1.71% [6] - The main basis in Henan increased by 140 yuan/ton or 13.46% [6] 3.5 Key Data Tracking - The report presents data on the closing prices of futures contracts in the past 180 days, the basis of the main hog contract in Henan, the price difference between the 07 - 09 contracts, and the price difference between the 09 - 11 contracts [14]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term hog prices may fluctuate, and in the medium - to - long - term, hog prices may still hit new lows [4] - From sow and piglet data, hog supplies in Q2, Q3, and Q4 of 2025 will be abundant, and there is no basis for a significant increase in hog prices [4] - Demand in Q2 and Q3 provides weak support for hog prices and cannot drive obvious price increases [4] - The current increasing hog slaughter weight indicates that the breeding side is still accumulating inventory, which is bearish for the future market. If there is a concentrated weight reduction later, hog prices may hit new lows [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Dynamics - On May 12, 2025, the registered hog warehouse receipts were 704 lots [2] - The LH2507 contract is mainly focused on spot - futures convergence and delivery games, and contradictions in the far - month contracts are still accumulating, with the futures price fluctuating and adjusting [2] - The main contract (LH2509) added 35 lots in positions today, with approximately 71,400 lots held. The highest price was 13,930 yuan/ton, the lowest was 13,855 yuan/ton, and it closed at 13,870 yuan/ton [2] 2. Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the number of fertile sows, hog supplies from March to December are expected to increase monthly, but the increase is limited. Piglet data shows that hog slaughter volumes will generally increase in Q2 and Q3 of 2025. In terms of demand, the first half of the year is the off - season, and the second half is the peak season [3] - Based on historical situations and current fundamentals, the fat - standard price difference may fluctuate and adjust [3] - Market bearish logic: The breeding side has not yet reduced weights, which is actually bearish for the future market; subsequent slaughter volumes are expected to continue to increase; Q2 and Q3 are not the consumption peak seasons, and demand support for hog prices is limited [3] - Market bullish logic: There is still room for an increase in frozen - product inventory, which can support hog prices; the spot price is firm, indicating that supply and demand are not as loose as the bears think; although there will be an increase in subsequent slaughter, the increase is limited, and Q3 and Q4 are gradually entering the peak hog consumption season; rising prices of corn and soybean meal may increase hog breeding costs [3] 3. Strategy Recommendations - It is recommended to wait and see for now because although there may be new lows in the spot market in the medium - to - long - term, the uncertainty is high, the short - term weight - reduction driving force in the market is not strong, and the futures price is in a relatively reasonable range [4] 4. Market Overview - On May 12, 2025, the national average hog slaughter price was 14.77 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.02 yuan/kg or 0.14% from May 9 [6] - The hog slaughter price in Henan remained unchanged at 15.11 yuan/kg, while in Sichuan, it decreased by 0.1 yuan/kg to 14.57 yuan/kg, a decline of 0.68% [6] - Among the futures prices, the 01, 03, 09, and 11 contracts decreased, with declines ranging from 0.19% to 0.39%, while the 05 and 07 contracts increased, with increases of 0.39% and 0.22% respectively [6] - The main basis in Henan increased by 105 yuan/ton to 1,240 yuan/ton, an increase of 9.25% [6] 5. Key Data Tracking - The report presents data trends of national hog slaughter prices, sample enterprise slaughter volumes, white - strip average prices, national corn purchase prices in grain depots, futures contract closing prices in the past 180 days, the main contract basis in the Henan region, 07 - 09 contract spreads, and 09 - 11 contract spreads from 2021 to 2025 [7][8][10][11][13]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term pig prices may fluctuate, and there is a possibility of new lows in the medium - to - long - term [2] - It is recommended to wait and see for now due to high uncertainty in the medium - to - long - term and relatively reasonable current futures prices [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Dynamics - On May 7, there were 705 registered pig futures warehouse receipts [3] - The LH2507 contract is mainly about spot - futures convergence and delivery games, and contradictions in far - month contracts are still accumulating with the futures price fluctuating and adjusting [3] - The main contract (LH2509) added 1,403 lots today, with a position of about 72,200 lots, a maximum price of 14,035 yuan/ton, a minimum price of 13,940 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 13,985 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the number of breeding sows, the supply of pigs is expected to increase monthly from March to December, but the increase is limited. Based on piglet data, the number of pig slaughterings will generally increase in the second and third quarters of 2025. The first half of the year is the off - season for demand, while the second half is the peak season [1] - Based on historical and current fundamentals, the fat - standard price difference may fluctuate and adjust [1] - Bearish factors: the breeding side has not reduced the weight of pigs, which is bearish for the future market; the subsequent number of slaughterings is expected to continue to increase; the demand in the second and third quarters is not strong enough to support pig prices. Bullish factors: the inventory of slaughtering enterprises is not complete, which can support pig prices; the spot price is firm, indicating that the supply - demand situation is not as loose as the bears think; although the subsequent number of slaughterings will increase, the increase is limited, and the consumption peak season will gradually arrive in the third and fourth quarters; the rising prices of corn and soybean meal may increase the cost of pig breeding [1] Strategy Suggestions - The short - term pig price may fluctuate, and there is a possibility of new lows in the medium - to - long - term due to sufficient pig supply in the second, third, and fourth quarters of 2025, weak demand support, and the breeding side still increasing inventory [2] - It is recommended to wait and see for now because of high uncertainty in the medium - to - long - term, weak short - term weight - reduction motivation, and relatively reasonable futures prices [2] Market Data - On May 7, the national average pig slaughter price was 14.81 yuan/kg, with no change from the previous day. The slaughter price in Henan increased by 0.05 yuan/kg (0.33%) to 15.06 yuan/kg, and that in Sichuan increased by 0.02 yuan/kg (0.14%) to 14.76 yuan/kg [4] - Futures prices of various contracts generally increased slightly on May 7, with the 01 - contract up 0.22%, the 03 - contract up 0.38%, the 07 - contract up 0.26%, the 09 - contract up 0.18%, and the 11 - contract up 0.07%. The 05 - contract remained unchanged [4] - The main contract basis in Henan increased by 25 yuan/ton (2.38%) to 1,075 yuan/ton on May 7 [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term pig prices may fluctuate, and in the medium - to - long - term, pig prices may still reach new lows [4] - The basis is that from sow and piglet data, the supply of pigs in the second, third, and fourth quarters of 2025 is abundant, and there is no basis for a significant increase in pig prices; demand support for pig prices is weak in the second and third quarters; the current live - pig slaughter weight is still increasing, indicating inventory accumulation by the breeding side, which is bearish for the future market [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Dynamics - On May 6, the registered warehouse receipts of live pigs were 705 lots [2] - The LH2507 contract is mainly about spot - futures convergence and delivery game, and the far - month contracts are weakly operating due to the expected increase in subsequent slaughter [2] - The main contract (LH2509) added 1030 lots in positions today, with a position of about 70,800 lots, a maximum price of 13,970 yuan/ton, a minimum price of 13,855 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 13,960 yuan/ton [2] 2. Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the number of breeding sows, the supply of live pigs from March to December is expected to increase month - by - month, but the increase is limited. From piglet data, the slaughter volume of live pigs will generally increase fluctuantly in the second and third quarters of 2025. The first half of the year is the off - season for demand, and the second half is the peak season [3] - Based on historical situations and current fundamentals, the fat - standard price difference may fluctuate and adjust [3] - Bearish logic: The breeding side has not yet reduced the weight, which is actually bearish for the future market; subsequent slaughter volume is expected to continue to increase; the second and third quarters are not the peak consumption season, and demand support for pig prices is limited [3] - Bullish logic: Slaughter enterprises' inventory replenishment is not over, which can support pig prices; the spot price is firm, indicating that supply and demand are not as loose as the bears think; although there will be an increase in subsequent slaughter, the increase is limited, and the third and fourth quarters are gradually entering the peak consumption season for live pigs; the increase in the prices of corn and soybean meal may raise the cost of pig farming [3] 3. Strategy Suggestions - The view is that short - term pig prices may fluctuate, and in the medium - to - long - term, pig prices may still reach new lows [4] - The core logic is that the supply of live pigs in the second, third, and fourth quarters of 2025 is abundant, demand support is weak in the second and third quarters, the current live - pig slaughter weight is increasing, indicating inventory accumulation, and if there is a concentrated weight reduction later, pig prices may reach new lows. Due to high uncertainty in the medium - to - long - term and weak short - term weight - reduction drive, and the futures price being in a relatively reasonable range, it is recommended to wait and see for now [4] 4. Market Overview - The national average live - pig slaughter price on May 6 was 14.81 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.01 yuan/kg or 0.07% compared to April 30. The average slaughter prices in Henan and Sichuan remained unchanged [6] - Among futures prices, the prices of all contracts from 01 to 11 increased compared to April 30, with the increase ranging from 0.15% to 0.48% [6] - The main - contract basis in Henan increased by 170 yuan/ton or 19.32% compared to April 30 [6] 5. Key Data Tracking - It shows the closing prices of futures contracts in the past 180 days, the basis of the main live - pig contract in the Henan region, the price difference between the 05 - 07 contracts, and the price difference between the 05 - 09 contracts [14]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term hog prices may fluctuate, and in the medium - to - long - term, hog prices may still hit new lows [4] - The reasons include sufficient hog supply in Q2, Q3, and Q4 of 2025, weak demand support in Q2 and Q3, increasing hog slaughter weight indicating inventory accumulation by the farming end, and potential price drops if concentrated weight reduction occurs [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Dynamics - On April 28, the registered warehouse receipts of live hogs were 705 lots [2] - The LH2505 contract is mainly about spot - futures convergence and delivery games. The far - month contracts are strongly supported by the expectations of limited subsequent slaughter increase, the consumption peak season in the second half of the year, and potential increases in far - month farming costs [2] - The main contract (LH2509) added 1071 lots in positions today, with a position of about 73,400 lots, a maximum price of 14,230 yuan/ton, a minimum price of 14,100 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 14,130 yuan/ton [2] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the inventory of breeding sows, the hog supply is expected to increase month - by - month from March to December, but the increase is limited. According to the piglet data, the hog slaughter volume will generally increase in Q2 and Q3 of 2025. In terms of demand, the first half of the year is the off - season, while the second half is the peak season [3] - Based on historical and current fundamentals, there is still room for the fat - standard price difference to decline [3] - Short - side logic: The farming end has not yet reduced the weight, which is actually bearish for the future market; subsequent slaughter volume is expected to continue to increase; Q2 and Q3 are not the consumption peak seasons, and demand support for hog prices is limited. Long - side logic: Slaughterhouses' inventory replenishment is not over, which can support hog prices; the spot price is firm, indicating that the supply - demand situation is not as loose as the short - side thinks; although there will be an increase in subsequent slaughter, the increase is limited, and Q3 and Q4 will gradually enter the hog consumption peak season; rising prices of corn and soybean meal may increase hog farming costs [3] 3.3 Strategy Suggestions - Short - term hog prices may fluctuate, and in the medium - to - long - term, hog prices may still hit new lows. The core logic is that hog supply is abundant in Q2, Q3, and Q4 of 2025, demand support in Q2 and Q3 is weak, the current hog slaughter weight is still increasing, indicating inventory accumulation by the farming end. If there is concentrated weight reduction later, hog prices may hit new lows. However, due to high uncertainty and weak short - term weight - reduction drive in the market, and the futures price being in a relatively reasonable range, it is recommended to wait and see for now [4] 3.4 Market Overview - On April 28, the national average hog slaughter price was 14.73 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.05 yuan/kg or 0.34% from April 25. The average hog slaughter price in Henan was 14.82 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.05 yuan/kg or 0.34% from April 25. The average hog slaughter price in Sichuan was 14.35 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.17 yuan/kg or 1.17% from April 25 [6] - Among futures prices, the prices of all contracts decreased compared with April 25, with the 05 contract having the largest decline of 0.99%, and the 09 contract having a decline of 0.14%. The main basis in Henan decreased by 120 yuan/ton or 14.81% from April 25 [6] 3.5 Key Data Tracking - The report presents data trends such as the closing prices of futures contracts in the past 180 days, the basis of the main hog contract in Henan, the price differences between the 05 - 07 and 05 - 09 contracts, etc., but specific numerical trends are not detailed in the text [14]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term hog prices may fluctuate, and in the long - term, hog prices may still reach new lows [4] - The basis for this view is that the hog supply in the second, third, and fourth quarters of 2025 is abundant, demand support is weak in the second and third quarters, the current hog出栏体重 is increasing, and there is a risk of concentrated weight reduction in the future [4] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Dynamics - On April 17, the registered warehouse receipts of live hogs were 290 lots [2] - The LH2505 contract is mainly about spot - futures convergence and delivery game. The far - month contracts are strongly supported by the expectations of limited increase in subsequent slaughter volume, the consumption peak season in the second half of the year, and the possible increase in far - month breeding costs [2] - The main contract (LH2509) reduced its positions by 2,124 lots today, with an open interest of about 70,000 lots. The highest price was 14,440 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 14,305 yuan/ton, and it closed at 14,440 yuan/ton [2] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the number of breeding sows, the hog supply from March to December is expected to increase month by month, but the increase is limited. From the perspective of piglet data, the hog slaughter volume in the second and third quarters of 2025 will increase overall in a fluctuating manner. The first half of the year is the off - season for demand, while the second half is the peak season [3] - From the historical situation and current fundamentals, there is still room for the fat - standard price difference to decline [3] - The short - side logic includes: the breeding side has not yet reduced the weight, which is actually bearish for the future market; the subsequent slaughter volume is expected to continue to increase; the second and third quarters are not yet the consumption peak season, and demand support for hog prices is limited. The long - side logic includes: the slaughter enterprises' inventory replenishment is not over, which can support hog prices; the spot price is firm, indicating that the supply - demand situation is not as loose as the short - side thinks; although there is an increase in subsequent slaughter, the increase is limited, and the third and fourth quarters are gradually entering the hog consumption peak season; the price increase of corn and soybean meal may raise the hog breeding cost [3] 3.3 Strategy Suggestions - The short - term hog prices may fluctuate, and in the long - term, there may still be new lows [4] - The core logic is that the hog slaughter volume in the second, third, and fourth quarters of 2025 is abundant, so there is no basis for a significant increase in hog prices; the demand support for hog prices in the second and third quarters is weak; the current hog出栏体重 is still increasing, indicating that the breeding side is still accumulating inventory, which is bearish for the future market. If there is concentrated weight reduction later, hog prices may reach new lows. Although it is considered that the spot price may still reach new lows in the long - term, due to high uncertainty and the weak short - term weight - reduction drive in the market, and the futures price is in a relatively reasonable range, it is recommended to wait and see for the time being [4] 3.4 Market Overview - On April 17, the national average hog slaughter price was 14.91 yuan/kg, a 0.07% increase from the previous day. The average hog slaughter price in Henan was 14.91 yuan/kg, a 0.13% increase. The average hog slaughter price in Sichuan remained unchanged at 14.76 yuan/kg [6] - Among the futures contracts, the 01 - contract price increased by 0.5% to 14,085 yuan/ton, the 03 - contract price increased by 0.56% to 13,370 yuan/ton, the 05 - contract price increased by 1.07% to 13,690 yuan/ton, the 07 - contract price increased by 0.29% to 13,630 yuan/ton, the 09 - contract price increased by 0.77% to 14,435 yuan/ton, and the 11 - contract price increased by 0.72% to 14,020 yuan/ton [6] - The main - contract basis in Henan was 475 yuan/ton, a 15.93% decrease from the previous day [6] 3.5 Key Data Tracking - The report presents data trends of multiple indicators, including the closing prices of futures contracts in the past 180 days, the basis of the main hog contract in Henan, the price difference between the 05 - 07 contracts, and the price difference between the 05 - 09 contracts [14]