甲醇产业日报 2026-01-22 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价甲醇(日,元/吨) | 2260 | 51 甲醇5-9价差(日,元/吨) | -19 | 4 | | | 主力合约持仓量:甲醇(日,手) | 817171 | -31791 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:甲醇(日,手) | -124400 | 45132 | | | 仓单数量:甲醇(日,张) | 7675 | -400 | | | | 现货市场 | 江苏太仓(日,元/吨) | 2225 | 15 内蒙古(日,元/吨) | 1795 | -25 | | | 华东-西北价差(日,元/吨) | 415 | 50 郑醇主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | -35 | -36 | | | 甲醇:CFR中国主港(日,美元/吨) | 262 | 1 CFR东南亚(日,美元/吨) | 322 | 0 | | | FOB鹿特丹(日,欧元/吨) | 266 | 4 中国主港-东南亚价差(日,美元/吨) | -60 ...

降低预期。MA2605合约短线预计在2210-2300区间波动。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价甲醇(日,元/吨) | 2263 | 0 甲醇5-9价差(日,元/吨) | -5 | -7 8034 | | | 主力合约持仓量:甲醇(日,手) | 830030 | -33561 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:甲醇(日,手) | -165175 | | | | 仓单数量:甲醇(日,张) | 7655 | 0 | | | | 现货市场 | 江苏太仓( ...

| | | 甲醇产业日报 2026-01-07 状态，国内甲醇制烯烃行业开工率小幅下降，短期华东MTO企业负荷仍有降低，但青海盐湖MTO装置计划 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 重启，行业开工率存提升预期。MA2605合约短线预计在2200-2300区间波动。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价甲醇(日,元/吨) | 2267 | -26 甲醇5-9价差(日,元/吨) | 20 | -3 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Short - term supply is relatively abundant, and some winter demand expectations are weak, which is not conducive to the upstream production end's shipping rhythm, and inventory is expected to increase overall. The methanol port inventory increased significantly last week, mainly in Jiangsu. The import apparent demand may remain weak, and the port methanol inventory is expected to continue to accumulate. The operating rate of the domestic methanol - to - olefins industry decreased last week, and the operating rate is expected to decline slightly. The MA2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2180 - 2250 in the short term [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2219 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 58 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread of methanol is 27 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 18 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest is 814,284 lots, with a week - on - week increase of 40,426 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 85,919 lots, with a week - on - week increase of 44,156 lots. The number of warehouse receipts is 6,648, with no change [2] Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2170 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 30 yuan/ton; the price in Inner Mongolia is 1825 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 20 yuan/ton. The price difference between East China and Northwest is 315 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 30 yuan/ton; the basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract is - 49 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 28 yuan/ton. The CFR price of methanol at the main Chinese port is 252 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 2 US dollars/ton; the price in Southeast Asia is 320 US dollars/ton, with no change. The FOB price in Rotterdam is 255 euros/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 2 euros/ton; the price difference between the main Chinese port and Southeast Asia is - 68 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 2 US dollars/ton [2] Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas is 4.66 US dollars/million British thermal units, with a week - on - week increase of 0.24 US dollars [2] Industry Situation - The inventory at East China ports is 100.73 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 20.77 tons; the inventory at South China ports is 40.52 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.4 tons. The import profit of methanol is - 11.97 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 8.79 yuan/ton; the monthly import volume is 141.76 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 19.5 tons. The inventory of inland enterprises is 404,000 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 12,900 tons; the operating rate of methanol enterprises is 91.24%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.72% [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of formaldehyde is 42.43%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.15%; the operating rate of dimethyl ether is 7.09%, with no change. The operating rate of acetic acid is 77.59%, with a week - on - week increase of 1.08%; the operating rate of MTBE is 68.01%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.89%. The operating rate of olefins is 89.26%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.25%; the on - paper profit of methanol - to - olefins is - 1136 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 127 yuan/ton [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 13.33%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.25%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 14.01%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.16%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 19.68%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.91%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 19.68%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.91% [2] Industry News - As of December 24, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 404,000 tons, an increase of 12,800 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week increase of 3.28%; the orders to be delivered by sample enterprises were 193,600 tons, a decrease of 26,800 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 12.16%. As of December 24, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 1.4125 million tons, an increase of 19,370 tons from the previous data. Among them, the inventory in East China increased by 207,700 tons, and the inventory in South China decreased by 14,000 tons. As of December 25, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefins plants was 88.68%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.44% [2] Suggested Attention - Pay attention to the inventory data of Longzhong enterprises and ports on Wednesday [2]

何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价甲醇(日,元/吨) | 2161 | 0 甲醇5-9价差(日,元/吨) | 9 | -5 | | | 主力合约持仓量:甲醇(日,手) | 773858 | -8076 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:甲醇(日,手) | -130075 | 16517 | | | 仓单数量:甲醇(日,张) | 6648 | -100 | | | | 现货市场 | 江苏太仓(日,元/吨) | 2130 | -10 内蒙古(日,元/吨) | 1845 | -20 | | | 华东-西北价差(日,元/吨) | 285 | 1 ...

| | | 甲醇产业日报 2025-12-09 上周青海盐湖烯烃装置负荷提升，烯烃行业整体开工提升，宁波富德后期预期停车检修，整体开工率预计 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 有所下降。MA2601合约短线预计在2030-2090区间波动。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价甲醇(日,元/吨) | 2066 | -23 甲醇1-5价差(日,元/吨) | -77 | 11 | | | 主力合 ...

甲醇产业日报 2025-12-04 存停车预期，进口表需或有所走弱，预计港口甲醇库存或将累库，具体需关注外轮卸货情况。需求方面， 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考，市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 本周青海盐湖烯烃装置负荷提升，烯烃行业整体开工提升，宁波富德后期预期停车检修，整体开工率预计 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 有所下降。MA2601合约短线预计在2100-2150区间波动。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The short - term expected arrival of foreign vessels at ports is at a high level, and there is still an expectation of inventory accumulation at ports, but the unloading time of some vessels is uncertain due to cargo quality, and the specific inventory trend needs to consider the impact of variable factors on unloading and pick - up speed [2] - The load of olefin enterprises in East China has increased, and the weekly average operating rate of the olefin industry is expected to continue to rise. The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2080 - 2160 in the short term [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2136 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1 yuan/ton; the 1 - 5 spread is - 96 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12 yuan/ton [2] - The main contract's open interest is 1003722 lots, a decrease of 45066 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 178982 lots [2] - The number of warehouse receipts is 3800, unchanged [2] 现货市场 - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2100 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price in Inner Mongolia is 1992.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.5 yuan/ton [2] - The price difference between East China and Northwest is 107.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.5 yuan/ton; the basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract is - 36 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1 yuan/ton [2] - CFR China Main Port price is 246 dollars/ton, an increase of 3 dollars/ton; CFR Southeast Asia is 317 dollars/ton, unchanged [2] - FOB Rotterdam is 260 euros/ton, unchanged; the price difference between China Main Port and Southeast Asia is - 71 dollars/ton, an increase of 3 dollars/ton [2] Upstream Situation - NYMEX natural gas price is 4.86 dollars/million British thermal units, an increase of 0.24 dollars/million British thermal units [2] Industry Situation - The inventory in East China ports is 93.75 tons, a decrease of 8.03 tons; the inventory in South China ports is 42.6 tons, a decrease of 3.55 tons [2] - The methanol import profit is - 16.34 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15.32 yuan/ton; the monthly import volume is 161.26 tons, an increase of 18.57 tons [2] - The inventory of inland enterprises is 373700 tons, an increase of 15000 tons; the operating rate of methanol enterprises is 89.09%, an increase of 0.32% [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of formaldehyde is 42.98%, an increase of 0.97%; the operating rate of dimethyl ether is 7.88%, an increase of 2.19% [2] - The operating rate of acetic acid is 73.06%, an increase of 3.47%; the operating rate of MTBE is 69.97%, unchanged [2] - The operating rate of olefins is 89.93%, an increase of 0.28%; the methanol - to - olefins profit is - 811 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 20.44%, a decrease of 0.86%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 20.55%, an increase of 0.01% [2] - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 19.91%, an increase of 1.68%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 19.91%, an increase of 1.67% [2] Industry News - As of November 26, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is 37.37 tons, a 4.19% increase; the order backlog is 23.07 tons, a 6.34% decrease [2] - As of November 26, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports is 136.35 tons, a decrease of 11.58 tons. The inventory in East China and South China has decreased [2] - As of November 27, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefins plants is 91.01%, a 0.9% increase. The load of olefin enterprises in East China has increased [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term port reverse - flow inland arbitrage space may remain continuously open, the import apparent demand may continue to be at a high level, and the port methanol inventory is expected to change little. The suppression of high inventory on the port methanol market may continue, and the unloading speed of foreign vessels needs to be specifically monitored [2]. - The load of olefin enterprises in East China has been slightly adjusted, the olefin industry's operating rate increased slightly last week. There is no planned adjustment expected for olefin enterprises this week, and the operating rate is expected to remain stable [2]. - The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2000 - 2100 in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2077 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 73 yuan/ton; the 1 - 5 spread of methanol is - 121 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 13 yuan/ton [2]. - The position of the main methanol contract is 1,312,680 lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 89,794 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 157,412 lots [2]. - The number of methanol warehouse receipts is 2,400 sheets [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2035 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 45 yuan/ton; the price in Inner Mongolia is 1965 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 5 yuan/ton [2]. - The price difference between East China and Northwest China is 25 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period; the basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract is - 42 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 28 yuan/ton [2]. - The CFR price of methanol at the main Chinese port is 233 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous period; the CFR price in Southeast Asia is 317 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous period [2]. - The FOB price in Rotterdam is 256 euros/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 4 euros/ton; the price difference between the main Chinese port and Southeast Asia is - 84 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous period [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas is 4.58 US dollars/million British thermal units, with a week - on - week increase of 0.09 US dollars/million British thermal units [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The inventory at East China ports is 1.0178 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 38,600 tons; the inventory at South China ports is 461,500 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 25,700 tons [2]. - The import profit of methanol is - 16.9 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 5 yuan/ton; the monthly import volume is 1.6126 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 185,700 tons [2]. - The inventory of inland enterprises is 358,700 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 10,600 tons; the operating rate of methanol enterprises is 88.77%, with a week - on - week increase of 1.69 percentage points [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of formaldehyde is 42.01%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.59 percentage points; the operating rate of dimethyl ether is 5.69%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.36 percentage points [2]. - The operating rate of acetic acid is 69.59%, with a week - on - week increase of 2.46 percentage points; the operating rate of MTBE is 69.97%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.28 percentage points [2]. - The operating rate of olefins is 89.65%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.39 percentage points; the on - paper profit of methanol - to - olefins is - 659 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 204 yuan/ton [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 15.61%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.02 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of methanol is 17.21%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.13 percentage points [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for methanol is 20.32%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.05 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for methanol is 20.32%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.04 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Industry News - As of November 19, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 358,700 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 10,600 tons or 2.86%; the pending orders of sample enterprises were 246,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 900 tons or 0.37% [2]. - As of November 19, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 1.4793 million tons, a decrease of 64,300 tons from the previous period. The inventory in East China decreased by 38,600 tons, and the inventory in South China decreased by 25,700 tons [2]. - As of November 20, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefins plants was 90.36%, a week - on - week increase of 0.12%. The load of olefin enterprises in East China was slightly adjusted, and the weekly average operating rate increased slightly [2]. 3.8 Suggested Attention - The enterprise inventory and port inventory data from Longzhong on Wednesday should be noted [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The short - term port reverse - flow to the mainland arbitrage space may remain continuously open, the import apparent demand may continue to be high, and the port methanol inventory is expected to change little. The high - inventory state may continue to suppress the port methanol market, and the unloading speed of foreign vessels needs to be focused on. The olefin industry's start - up rate increased slightly this week, and it is expected to remain stable next week. The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1970 - 2050 in the short term [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2016 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 3; the 1 - 5 spread of methanol is - 137 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 192.03. The main contract's open interest is 1,427,833 lots, a decrease of 22,788; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 191,775 lots. The number of warehouse receipts is 6,581, a decrease of 584 [2] Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 1,985 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price in Inner Mongolia is 1,960 yuan/ton, an increase of 5. The price difference between East China and Northwest China is 25 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15; the basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract is - 31 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3. The CFR price of methanol at the main Chinese port is 232 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 2; the CFR price in Southeast Asia is 317 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 1. The FOB price in Rotterdam is 260 euros/ton, a decrease of 6. The price difference between the main Chinese port and Southeast Asia is - 85 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 1 [2] Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas is 4.56 US dollars/million British thermal units, an increase of 0.19 [2] Industry Situation - The inventory at East China ports is 1.0178 million tons, a decrease of 38,600 tons; the inventory at South China ports is 461,500 tons, a decrease of 25,700 tons. The import profit of methanol is - 15.94 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.91. The monthly import volume is 1.4269 million tons, a decrease of 332,900 tons. The inventory of inland enterprises is 358,700 tons, a decrease of 10,600 tons. The methanol enterprise start - up rate is 87.08%, a decrease of 0.71 percentage points [2] Downstream Situation - The formaldehyde start - up rate is 41.42%, a decrease of 0.33 percentage points; the dimethyl ether start - up rate is 5.33%, a decrease of 0.46 percentage points; the acetic acid start - up rate is 67.13%, a decrease of 2.48 percentage points; the MTBE start - up rate is 70.25%, an increase of 1.7 percentage points; the olefin start - up rate is 89.26%, a decrease of 0.72 percentage points. The on - paper profit of methanol - to - olefins is - 448 yuan/ton, a decrease of 43 [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 15.63%, a decrease of 1.35; the 40 - day historical volatility is 17.35%, an increase of 0.02. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for methanol is 19.66%, an increase of 0.31; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 19.66%, an increase of 0.31 [2] Industry News - As of November 19, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 358,700 tons, a decrease of 10,600 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 2.86%; the orders to be delivered by sample enterprises were 246,300 tons, an increase of 900 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week increase of 0.37%. As of November 19, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 1.4793 million tons, a decrease of 64,300 tons from the previous data. Both East and South China regions saw inventory reduction. Recently, the production capacity loss due to domestic methanol maintenance and production reduction is less than the production capacity output of recovery, and the overall output has increased [2] Viewpoint Summary - As of November 20, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefins plants was 90.36%, a week - on - week increase of 0.12%. The load of olefin enterprises in East China was slightly adjusted, and the overall weekly average start - up rate increased slightly. The positive demand from downstream olefin enterprises has a certain positive driving effect on the de - stocking of upstream enterprises, and the inventory of inland enterprises continues to decline. The methanol port inventory decreased this week. Due to the lack of domestic supply and the support of imported goods flowing back, the提货 at East China social warehouses was good, and the overall downstream rigid demand was stable [2] Things to Pay Attention to - Pay attention to the inventory of Longzhong enterprises and port inventory on Wednesday [2]