Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The methanol port inventory fluctuates slightly in the short - term, with an expected increase in the next week due to the anticipated rise in short - term visible unloading volume and no obvious improvement in demand. - Affected by cost pressure and falling downstream prices, the short - term olefin enterprise operation rate may continue to decline. - The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2230 - 2300 [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2257 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton; the 1 - 5 spread is - 64 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton. - The position of the main contract is 1197415 lots, down 23877 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 220178 lots, up 17268 lots. - The number of warehouse receipts is 12122, down 1750 [2]. Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2200 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton; the price in Inner Mongolia is 2010 yuan/ton, down 2.5 yuan/ton. - The price difference between East China and Northwest is 190 yuan/ton, down 12.5 yuan/ton; the basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract is - 41 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton. - The CFR price of methanol at the main Chinese port is 257 dollars/ton, down 3 dollars/ton; the CFR price in Southeast Asia is 324 dollars/ton, unchanged. - The FOB price in Rotterdam is 267 euros/ton, down 1 euro/ton; the price difference between the main Chinese port and Southeast Asia is - 67 dollars/ton, down 3 dollars/ton [2]. Upstream Situation The price of NYMEX natural gas is 3.25 dollars/million British thermal units, down 0.15 dollars/million British thermal units [2]. Industry Situation - The inventory in East China ports is 102.7 tons, up 3 tons; the inventory in South China ports is 48.52 tons, down 0.92 tons. - The import profit of methanol is - 4.75 yuan/ton, up 10.36 yuan/ton; the monthly import volume is 142.69 tons, down 33.29 tons. - The inventory of inland enterprises is 360400 tons, up 500 tons; the operation rate of methanol enterprises is 85.65%, down 1.77% [2]. Downstream Situation - The operation rate of formaldehyde is 38.87%, down 2.01%; the operation rate of dimethyl ether is 5.33%, down 0.59%. - The operation rate of acetic acid is 74.4%, up 1.88%; the operation rate of MTBE is 67.79%, up 4.67%. - The operation rate of olefins is 90.43%, down 1.96%; the on - disk profit of methanol - to - olefins is - 886 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 18.39%, up 0.31%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 15.34%, up 0.03%. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for methanol is 18.45%, up 1.01%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 18.45%, up 1.17% [2]. Industry News - As of October 29, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is 37.61 tons, up 1.57 tons, a 4.36% increase; the pending orders of sample enterprises are 21.56 tons, down 0.01 tons, a 0.04% decrease. - As of October 29, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports is 150.65 tons, down 0.57 tons. Among them, the inventory in East China has decreased by 2.97 tons, and the inventory in South China has increased by 2.40 tons. - The domestic methanol production has decreased due to more capacity losses from maintenance and production cuts than capacity output from recovery. The enterprise shipment rhythm is okay, and the unloading speed is average, with a large volume of unloading at non - dominant terminals [2].

盐湖等前期检修装置陆续重启，MTO行业整体维持高位开工，中原乙烯烯烃装置后期存在停车预期，其他 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价甲醇(日,元/吨) | 2342 | 35 甲醇1-5价差(日,元/吨) | -12 | 32 | | | 主力合约持仓量:甲醇(日,手) | 991942 | -9556 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:甲醇(日,手) | -115723 | 28069 | | | 仓单数量:甲醇(日,张) | 11282 | -100 | | | | 现货市场 | 江苏太仓(日,元/吨) | 2290 | 85 内蒙古(日,元/吨) | 2070 | 2.5 | | | 华东-西北价差(日,元/吨) | 220 | NAN 郑醇主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | -52 | 50 | | | 甲醇:CFR中国主港(日,美元/吨) | 256 | 0 CFR东 ...

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价甲醇(日,元/吨) | 2359 | 4 甲醇1-5价差(日,元/吨) | -29 | 0 572 | | | 主力合约持仓量:甲醇(日,手) | 869500 | -15632 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:甲醇(日,手) | -137911 | | | | 仓单数量:甲醇(日,张) | 10832 | -500 | | | | 现货市场 | 江苏太仓(日,元/吨) | 2245 | 5 内蒙古(日,元/吨) | 2090 | 0 | | | 华东-西北价差(日,元/吨) | 155 | NAN 郑醇主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | -114 | 1 | | | 甲醇:CFR中国主港(日,美元/吨) | 261 | -1 CFR东南亚(日,美元/吨) | 326 | 0 | | | FOB鹿特丹(日,欧元/吨) | 280 | -1 中国主港-东南亚价差(日,美元/吨) | -65 | -1 | | 上游情况 | NYMEX ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term explicit arrival volume of foreign vessels at ports remains at a relatively high level. It is expected that the methanol inventory at ports may continue to increase next week, and the specific increase amplitude depends on the unloading speed of foreign vessels and changes in提货量. - After the shutdown of the Qinghai Salt Lake olefin plant and the restart of the Zhejiang Xingxing plant, the olefin operating rate increased this week. With the expected restart of the Ningxia Baofeng Phase III and Shenhua Xinjiang olefin plants next week, the industry operating rate may continue to rise. - The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2300 - 2380 in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2346 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan from the previous period. The 1 - 5 spread of methanol is - 39 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan. - The main contract's open interest of methanol is 942,904 lots, an increase of 106,296 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 168,632 lots. - The number of methanol warehouse receipts is 10,207, a decrease of 574 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2240 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan; the price in Inner Mongolia is 2090 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan. - The price difference between East China and Northwest China is 150 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract is - 106 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan. - The CFR price of methanol at the main Chinese port is 264 US dollars/ton, down 1 US dollar; the CFR price in Southeast Asia is 326 US dollars/ton, unchanged. - The FOB price in Rotterdam is 294 euros/ton, an increase of 2 euros. The price difference between the main Chinese port and Southeast Asia is - 62 US dollars/ton, down 1 US dollar [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas is 3.08 US dollars/million British thermal units, down 0.04 US dollars [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The inventory at East China ports is 107.39 tons, a decrease of 1.56 tons; the inventory at South China ports is 48.39 tons, an increase of 2.31 tons. - The methanol import profit is - 2.07 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.04 yuan. The monthly import volume is 110.27 tons, a decrease of 11.75 tons. - The inventory of inland enterprises is 340,500 tons, a decrease of 2,100 tons. The operating rate of methanol enterprises is 84.58%, a decrease of 0.26% [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of formaldehyde is 43.13%, an increase of 5.4%; the operating rate of dimethyl ether is 4.86%, an increase of 0.03%. - The operating rate of acetic acid is 83.11%, a decrease of 1.13%; the operating rate of MTBE is 61.69%, a decrease of 0.53%. - The operating rate of olefins is 81.57%, a decrease of 3.15%. The on - disk profit of methanol - to - olefins is - 912 yuan/ton, an increase of 34 yuan [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 12.3%, an increase of 0.7%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 15.38%, a decrease of 0.8%. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for methanol is 15.25%, an increase of 0.04%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 15.24%, an increase of 0.04% [2]. 3.7 Industry News - As of September 17, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is 34.05 tons, a decrease of 0.21 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 0.60%; the orders to be delivered of sample enterprises is 23.38 tons, a decrease of 1.69 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 6.76%. - As of September 17, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports is 155.78 tons, an increase of 0.75 tons from the previous data. East China shows de - stocking, and South China shows inventory accumulation. - As of September 18, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefins plants is 84.89%, a month - on - month increase of 2.23% [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall methanol production in China has increased slightly as the output from restored production capacity is more than the loss from maintenance and production cuts. Before the National Day holiday, the inventory of inland enterprises decreased due to downstream stocking and increased procurement by some olefin enterprises in Inner Mongolia. However, the port inventory continued to increase significantly. The import demand is expected to be stable this week, and the port inventory is likely to continue the inventory accumulation trend. The olefin production capacity utilization rate decreased due to the shutdown of the Qinghai Salt Lake olefin plant, but it is expected to rise after the expected restart of Shenhua Xinjiang and the continued shutdown of the Qinghai Salt Lake olefin plant. The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2350 - 2410 yuan/ton in the short - term. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2396 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 17 yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 spread of methanol is - 12 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6 yuan/ton. - The main contract holding volume of methanol is 783,891 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 14,520 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 112,186 lots. - The number of warehouse receipts for methanol is 16,131, unchanged from the previous period. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2285 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; the price in Inner Mongolia is 2117.5 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton. - The price difference between East China and Northwest China is 167.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton. The basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract is - 111 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 yuan/ton. - The CFR price of methanol at the main Chinese port is 263 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CFR price in Southeast Asia is 326 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The FOB price in Rotterdam is 293 euros/ton, a decrease of 1 euro/ton. The price difference between the main Chinese port and Southeast Asia is - 63 US dollars/ton, unchanged. [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas is 2.96 US dollars/million British thermal units, an increase of 0.04 US dollars. [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The inventory at East China ports is 108.95 tons, an increase of 8.72 tons; the inventory at South China ports is 46.08 tons, an increase of 3.54 tons. - The import profit of methanol is 13.9 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.5 yuan/ton. The monthly import volume is 110.27 tons, a decrease of 11.75 tons. - The inventory of inland enterprises is 342,600 tons, an increase of 1500 tons. The operating rate of methanol enterprises is 84.58%, a decrease of 0.26 percentage points. [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of formaldehyde is 43.13%, an increase of 5.4 percentage points; the operating rate of dimethyl ether is 4.86%, an increase of 0.03 percentage points. - The operating rate of acetic acid is 83.11%, a decrease of 1.13 percentage points; the operating rate of MTBE is 61.69%, a decrease of 0.53 percentage points. - The operating rate of olefins is 81.57%, a decrease of 3.15 percentage points. The on - paper profit of methanol - to - olefins is - 1022 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan/ton. [2] 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 12.26%, a decrease of 0.36 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of methanol is 18.08%, an increase of 0.01 percentage points. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for methanol is 15.48%, a decrease of 0.15 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for methanol is 15.48%, a decrease of 0.14 percentage points. [2] 3.7 Industry News - As of September 10, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 34.26 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.45 tons, or 1.31%. The pending orders of sample enterprises were 25.07 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.94 tons, or 3.91%. - As of September 10, the total inventory at Chinese methanol ports was 155.03 tons, an increase of 12.26 tons compared with the previous period. The inventory in East China increased by 8.72 tons, and the inventory in South China increased by 3.54 tons. - As of September 11, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefins plants was 82.66%, a week - on - week decrease of 3.16%. [2]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - This week, the inventory level of inland methanol enterprises decreased due to pre - National Day holiday stocking by mid - and downstream enterprises and increased external procurement by some olefin enterprises in Inner Mongolia. However, domestic methanol ports continued to accumulate inventory significantly, and it is expected that the port inventory will continue the accumulation trend next week, with the specific accumulation amplitude depending on the unloading speed of foreign vessels. - With the profit recovery, the operating rate of some olefin enterprises in East China increased. The operating rate of domestic methanol - to - olefin plants increased slightly last week. After the offset of the expected restart of Shenhua Xinjiang in the middle of the month and the short - term shutdown of Qinghai Salt Lake olefin plant, the short - term industry operating rate may decline slightly. - The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2360 - 2440 in the short term [2]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs a. Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract was 2407 yuan/ton, with a change of 9 yuan/ton; the 1 - 5 spread was - 2 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9 yuan/ton. - The position of the main contract was 755,966 lots, a decrease of 12,659 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 108,488 lots. - The number of warehouse receipts was 14,519, an increase of 983 [2]. b. Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang was 2285 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton; the price in Inner Mongolia was 2127.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton. - The price difference between East China and Northwest China was 157.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton; the basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract was - 122 yuan/ton, an increase of 6 yuan/ton. - The CFR price at the main Chinese port was 262 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CFR price in Southeast Asia was 323 US dollars/ton, unchanged. - The FOB price in Rotterdam was 297 euros/ton, an increase of 2 euros/ton; the price difference between the main Chinese port and Southeast Asia was - 61 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2]. c. Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas was 3.1 US dollars/million British thermal units, unchanged [2]. d. Industry Situation - The inventory in East China ports was 100.23 tons, an increase of 11.33 tons; the inventory in South China ports was 42.54 tons, an increase of 1.51 tons. - The import profit of methanol was 17.36 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly import volume was 1.1027 million tons, a decrease of 0.1175 million tons. - The inventory of inland enterprises was 341,100 tons, an increase of 7700 tons; the operating rate of methanol enterprises was 84.84%, unchanged [2]. e. Downstream Situation - The operating rate of formaldehyde was 37.73%, a decrease of 4.31 percentage points; the operating rate of dimethyl ether was 4.83%, a decrease of 2.19 percentage points. - The operating rate of acetic acid was 84.24%, a decrease of 1 percentage point; the operating rate of MTBE was 62.22%, a decrease of 1.32 percentage points. - The operating rate of olefins was 84.72%, a decrease of 0.63 percentage points; the on - paper profit of methanol - to - olefin was - 1073 yuan/ton, a decrease of 28 yuan/ton [2]. f. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol was 13.77%, an increase of 0.02 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 17.96%, a decrease of 0.09 percentage points. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 15.3%, a decrease of 1.86 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 15.3%, a decrease of 1.86 percentage points [2]. g. Industry News - As of September 10, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 342,600 tons, a decrease of 4500 tons compared with the previous period, a 1.31% decrease; the orders to be delivered by sample enterprises were 250,700 tons, an increase of 9400 tons compared with the previous period, a 3.91% increase. - As of September 10, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 1.5503 million tons, an increase of 122,600 tons compared with the previous data. The inventory in East China increased by 87,200 tons, and the inventory in South China increased by 35,400 tons. - As of September 4, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefin plants was 87.07%, a 0.62% increase compared with the previous period [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The overall production of methanol has slightly increased as the output from restored capacities is more than the loss from maintenance and production cuts. The inventory of inland enterprises has increased due to the start of a new long - term contract in the northwest region and the resumption of some maintenance projects. The port inventory has accelerated to accumulate significantly, and although the arrival of foreign vessels has slightly decreased this week, it remains at a high level. The downstream apparent demand has no obvious improvement expectation, and the port methanol inventory is expected to continue to accumulate. The demand side has seen an increase in the operating rate of domestic methanol - to - olefins due to the restart of the Sinopec Zhongyuan Ethylene olefin plant, and it is expected to continue to increase slightly this week. The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2325 - 2400 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2385 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan/ton compared to the previous period; the 1 - 5 spread is - 5 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest is 799308 lots, a decrease of 21711 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 111203 lots, an increase of 3946 lots. The number of warehouse receipts is 9516, a decrease of 230 [3]. 3.2现货市场 - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2210 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; the price in Inner Mongolia is 2045 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton. The price difference between East China and Northwest is 165 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton; the basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract is - 175 yuan/ton, down 34 yuan/ton. The CFR price of methanol at the main Chinese port is 256 US dollars/ton, down 2 US dollars/ton; the CFR price in Southeast Asia is 322 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The FOB price in Rotterdam is 291 euros/ton, up 3 euros/ton; the price difference between the main Chinese port and Southeast Asia is - 66 US dollars/ton, down 2 US dollars/ton [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas is 3.02 US dollars per million British thermal units, up 0.03 US dollars [3]. 3.4产业情况 - The inventory in East China ports is 88.9 tons, an increase of 18.28 tons; the inventory in South China ports is 41.03 tons, an increase of 4.05 tons. The import profit of methanol is 5.65 yuan/ton, an increase of 7.51 yuan/ton; the monthly import volume is 110.27 tons, a decrease of 11.75 tons. The inventory of inland enterprises is 333400 tons, an increase of 22600 tons; the operating rate of methanol enterprises is 84.84%, an increase of 0.93% [3]. 3.5下游情况 - The operating rate of formaldehyde is 42.04%, unchanged; the operating rate of dimethyl ether is 7.02%, unchanged; the operating rate of acetic acid is 85.24%, a decrease of 3.77%; the operating rate of MTBE is 63.54%, unchanged; the operating rate of olefins is 85.35%, an increase of 0.76%. The on - paper profit of methanol - to - olefins is - 990 yuan/ton, a decrease of 81 yuan/ton [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 12.85%, an increase of 0.77%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 18.13%, an increase of 0.21%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 15.49%, a decrease of 0.54%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 15.48%, a decrease of 0.55% [3]. 3.7 Industry News - As of August 27, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is 33.34 tons, an increase of 2.26 tons compared to the previous period, a year - on - year increase of 7.27%; the orders to be delivered of sample enterprises is 21.70 tons, an increase of 0.96 tons compared to the previous period, a year - on - year increase of 4.64%. The total inventory of Chinese methanol ports is 129.93 tons, an increase of 22.33 tons compared to the previous data. The inventory in East China and South China has increased. The domestic methanol production has slightly increased. As of August 28, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefins plants is 86.41%, a year - on - year increase of 0.71% [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core View of the Report - Last week, methanol port inventories increased as expected, mainly in the South China region. Typhoon weather affected the unloading speed and inventory build - up. The mainstream social warehouses in the Jiangsu - Zhejiang area and other consumption areas were weak and stable, so the inventory continued to increase. In the short term, the on - the - way foreign vessels are still sufficient while the apparent demand may remain weak. It is expected that the port methanol inventory may continue to increase, but the impact of weather factors on the unloading speed needs to be monitored. In terms of demand, after the restart of the olefin enterprise in Zhongmei Mengda last week, its load is increasing. Zhejiang Xingxing stopped production mid - week. After the offset, the olefin industry's operating rate increased slightly. Zhejiang Xingxing's olefin plant continues to be shut down, and Xinjiang Hengyou is expected to start production this week. There is still room for the olefin industry's operating rate to rise. The MA2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2350 - 2400 in the short term [2] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Data Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract was 2390 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton; the 9 - 1 spread of methanol was - 97 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton; the position volume of the main methanol contract was 498,785 lots, down 34,291 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 96,632 lots, up 1,816 lots; the number of warehouse receipts was 8,546, unchanged [2] 现货市场 - The price in Jiangsu Taicang was 2360 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; the price in Inner Mongolia was 2075 yuan/ton, up 12.5 yuan/ton; the price difference between East China and Northwest China was 285 yuan/ton, down 32.5 yuan/ton; the basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract was - 30 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan/ton; CFR China Main Port was 269 dollars/ton, down 3 dollars/ton; CFR Southeast Asia was 333 dollars/ton, unchanged; FOB Rotterdam was 244 euros/ton, down 1 euro/ton; the price difference between China Main Port and Southeast Asia was - 64 dollars/ton, down 3 dollars/ton [2] Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas was 3.1 dollars/million British thermal units, unchanged [2] Industrial Situation - The inventory in East China ports was 57.2 tons, up 2.5 tons; the inventory in South China ports was 23.64 tons, up 5.76 tons; the methanol import profit was 52.08 yuan/ton, up 20.57 yuan/ton; the monthly import volume was 122.02 tons, down 7.21 tons; the inventory of inland enterprises was 324,500 tons, down 15,300 tons; the operating rate of methanol enterprises was 85.36%, up 1.38% [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of formaldehyde was 43.29%, up 5.55%; the operating rate of acetic acid was 91.4%, down 1.29%; the operating rate of dimethyl ether was 5.33%, up 0.14%; the operating rate of MTBE was 67.79%, down 1.22%; the operating rate of olefins was 85.27%, up 0.32%; the on - paper profit of methanol - to - olefins was - 896 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol was 26.06%, up 0.05%; the 40 - day historical volatility of methanol was 27.47%, up 0.02%; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options for methanol was 17.35%, down 2.94%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for methanol was 17.35%, down 2.94% [2] 2. Industry News - As of July 30, the inventory of China's methanol sample production enterprises was 32.45 tons, a decrease of 1.53 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 4.51%; the pending orders of sample enterprises were 23.07 tons, a decrease of 1.41 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 5.76% [2] - As of July 30, the total inventory of China's methanol ports was 80.84 tons, an increase of 8.26 tons from the previous data. Among them, the inventory in East China increased by 2.50 tons, and the inventory in South China increased by 5.76 tons [2] - Recently, the output of restored domestic methanol production capacity is more than the loss of production capacity due to maintenance and production cuts, and the overall output has increased slightly. Last week, the inventory of inland enterprises decreased slightly, but the resumption of some regional plants and the increase in load may lead to an increase in regional inventory. In the short term, the enterprise inventory may show obvious regional differentiation [2] - As of July 31, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefins plants was 86.39%, a month - on - month increase of 0.32% [2]

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a methanol industry daily report dated July 30, 2025 [1] Group 2: Report Core Views - This week, methanol port inventories increased as expected, mainly in the South China region. Typhoon weather affected the unloading speed and inventory accumulation. The mainstream social warehouses in the Jiangsu - Zhejiang area and other consumption areas remained weak and stable, leading to continued inventory growth. Short - term on - the - way foreign vessels are still sufficient, and apparent demand may remain weak. It is expected that port methanol inventories may continue to accumulate, but the impact of weather factors on the unloading speed needs to be monitored [2] - Last week, the load of olefin enterprises in East China decreased slightly, while other enterprise devices operated stably. The overall domestic olefin industry's starting rate decreased slightly. This week, the Zhongmei Mengda device is expected to resume, which will increase the olefin industry's starting rate [2] - The MA2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2400 - 2460 in the short term [2] Group 3: Data Summary by Category Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract was 2419 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton; the 9 - 1 spread was - 91 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton; the main contract's open interest was 579345 lots, an increase of 3317 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 88181 lots; the number of warehouse receipts was 8834, a decrease of 1000 [2] Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang was 2400 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton; in Inner Mongolia, it was 2057.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 22.5 yuan/ton; the East - Northwest price spread was 342.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12.5 yuan/ton; the basis of the main methanol contract in Zhengzhou was - 19 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan/ton; CFR China Main Port was 275 dollars/ton, an increase of 2 dollars/ton; CFR Southeast Asia was 333 dollars/ton, unchanged; FOB Rotterdam was 239 euros/ton, an increase of 4 euros/ton; the China Main Port - Southeast Asia price spread was - 58 dollars/ton, an increase of 2 dollars/ton [2] Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas was 3.07 dollars/million British thermal units, an increase of 0.04 dollars/million British thermal units [2] Industry Situation - The inventory in East China ports was 54.7 tons, a decrease of 8.7 tons; in South China ports, it was 17.88 tons, an increase of 2.26 tons; the methanol import profit was - 1.56 yuan/ton, a decrease of 24.54 yuan/ton; the monthly import volume was 122.02 tons, a decrease of 7.21 tons; the inventory of inland enterprises was 339800 tons, a decrease of 12500 tons; the methanol enterprise operating rate was 83.98%, an increase of 1.29% [2] Downstream Situation - The formaldehyde operating rate was 37.74%, a decrease of 5.91%; the dimethyl ether operating rate was 5.19%, unchanged; the acetic acid operating rate was 92.69%, an increase of 2.1%; the MTBE operating rate was 69.01%, an increase of 1.38%; the olefin operating rate was 84.95%, a decrease of 0.15%; the methanol - to - olefin spot profit was - 912 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol was 26.01%, a decrease of 0.03%; the 40 - day historical volatility was 27.45%, a decrease of 0.31%; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 19.93%, a decrease of 5.4%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 19.93%, a decrease of 5.39% [2] Industry News - As of July 30, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 32.45 tons, a decrease of 1.53 tons from the previous period, a 4.51% decrease; the orders to be delivered by sample enterprises were 23.07 tons, a decrease of 1.41 tons from the previous period, a 5.76% decrease [2] - As of July 30, the total Chinese methanol port inventory was 80.84 tons, an increase of 8.26 tons from the previous data. The inventory in East China increased by 2.50 tons, and in South China by 5.76 tons [2] - As of July 24, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefin plants was 86.08%, a decrease of 0.15% from the previous period [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall methanol production has slightly decreased recently as the loss of production capacity due to domestic methanol maintenance and production cuts exceeds the output of restored production capacity. The inventory performance of inland enterprises varies. Some enterprises' inventory continues to accumulate due to weak downstream demand, while the inventory of some olefin plants decreases as the pre - accumulated methanol inventory is gradually consumed after restoration. The methanol port inventory continues to accumulate. The downstream demand remains weak, and the MA2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2360 - 2430 yuan/ton in the short term [2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2367 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan; the 9 - 1 spread is - 67 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan. The main contract's open interest is 654,082 lots, up 3,207 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 121,457 lots, down 9,436 lots. The number of warehouse receipts is 8,931, down 320 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2375 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; in Inner Mongolia, it is 1972.5 yuan/ton, down 2.5 yuan. The price difference between East China and Northwest is 402.5 yuan/ton, down 7.5 yuan; the basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract is 8 yuan. The CFR price at the main Chinese port is 277 US dollars/ton, unchanged; CFR Southeast Asia is 333 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The FOB price in Rotterdam is 241 euros/ton, unchanged. The price difference between the main Chinese port and Southeast Asia is - 56 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas is 3.51 US dollars/million British thermal units, up 0.06 US dollars [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The inventory in East China ports is 57.05 tons, up 6.1 tons; in South China ports, it is 14.84 tons, down 1.58 tons. The methanol import profit is - 21.11 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan. The monthly import volume is 129.23 tons, up 50.46 tons. The inventory of inland enterprises is 356,900 tons, up 4,600 tons. The methanol enterprise operating rate is 84.75%, down 3.43 percentage points [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The formaldehyde operating rate is 45.24%, down 0.83 percentage points; the acetic acid operating rate is 93.91%. The dimethyl ether operating rate is 5.19%; the MTBE operating rate is 66.86%, up 1.8 percentage points. The olefin operating rate is 85.15%, up 0.55 percentage points. The methanol - to - olefin profit on the disk is - 888 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 21.83%, down 2.05 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility is 22.77%, up 0.02 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 17.24%, up 0.3 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 17.23%, up 0.28 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Industry News - As of July 16, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is 35.23 tons, down 0.46 tons from the previous period, a 1.28% decrease; the pending orders of sample enterprises are 24.31 tons, up 2.19 tons from the previous period, a 9.89% increase. The total port inventory of Chinese methanol is 79.02 tons, up 7.13 tons from the previous data. The domestic methanol - to - olefin device capacity utilization rate is 85.94%, up 0.55 percentage points [2].