1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Recently, the output of restored domestic methanol production capacity exceeds that of overhauled and reduced - capacity production, leading to a slight increase in overall output. Due to insufficient transportation capacity in the northwest production area, the enterprise shipping rhythm has slowed down, and domestic methanol enterprise inventories have continued to increase this week. Outer - ship unloading is basically in line with expectations, and methanol port inventories have increased as scheduled. In the demand aspect, the restart of Ningxia Baofeng Phase II and the load increase of Shandong Hengtong have led to an increase in the domestic methanol - to - olefins industry's operating rate this week. The MA2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2240 - 2300 in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2259 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan; the 9 - 1 spread is - 60 yuan/ton, with no change; the main contract's open interest is 812,450 lots, down 23,148 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 78,295 lots; the number of warehouse receipts is 4,600, up 2,000 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2300 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan; in Inner Mongolia, it is 1892.5 yuan/ton, up 27.5 yuan; the East - Northwest price difference is 407.5 yuan/ton, down 12.5 yuan; the basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract is 41 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan; CFR China Main Port is 262 dollars/ton, up 2 dollars; CFR Southeast Asia is 320 dollars/ton, with no change; FOB Rotterdam is 265 euros/ton, up 8 euros; the China Main Port - Southeast Asia price difference is - 58 dollars/ton, up 2 dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas is 3.71 dollars/million British thermal units, down 0.01 dollars [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The inventory in East China ports is 42.23 tons, up 5.13 tons; in South China ports, it is 15.89 tons, up 0.69 tons; the methanol import profit is 16.75 yuan/ton, up 17.86 yuan; the monthly import volume is 78.77 tons, up 31.47 tons; the inventory of inland enterprises is 262,200 tons, up 12,300 tons; the methanol enterprise operating rate is 87.19%, up 0.15 percentage points [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The formaldehyde operating rate is 51.04%, up 0.24 percentage points; the acetic acid operating rate is 76%, with no change; the dimethyl ether operating rate is 10.25%, up 0.73 percentage points; the MTBE operating rate is 54.24%, down 1.11 percentage points; the olefin operating rate is 85.19%, up 1.37 percentage points; the methanol - to - olefins paper profit is - 666 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 20.42%, down 0.11 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility is 24.55%, down 0.07 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 18.04%, down 0.14 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 18.05%, down 0.14 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Industry News - As of June 4, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is 37.05 tons, up 1.55 tons, a 4.38% increase; the sample enterprises' orders to be delivered are 26.22 tons, up 1.23 tons, a 4.92% increase. The total methanol port inventory in China is 58.12 tons, up 5.82 tons. As of June 5, the domestic methanol - to - olefins plant capacity utilization rate is 86.88%, up 1.69 percentage points [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Recently, the output of domestic methanol production capacity affected by maintenance and production cuts is more than that of the restored capacity, leading to a slight decrease in overall production [2]. - This week, the downstream purchasing enthusiasm declined, the actual order volume decreased, the enterprise's pending orders decreased, and the inventory of inland enterprises continued to increase slightly [2]. - This week, the methanol port inventory increased slightly. In the East China region, the downstream load along the Yangtze River recovered, and the提货 volume of other mainstream social warehouses was normal. In the South China region, the提货 volume of the mainstream storage areas was good due to the stable local and surrounding demand, while both imported and domestic trade supplies were supplemented, resulting in an increase in inventory [2]. - In terms of demand, the restart of the olefin maintenance device in East China led to an increase in the operating rate of the methanol - to - olefin industry this week. The MA2509 contract fluctuates in the range of 2220 - 2290 in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract was 2241 yuan/ton, a decrease of 29 yuan/ton. The 9 - 1 spread of methanol was - 70 yuan/ton, an increase of 3 yuan/ton [2]. - The main contract's open interest of methanol was 773,662 lots, an increase of 22,183 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 167,676 lots [2]. - The number of methanol warehouse receipts was 7,357, a decrease of 2,033 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of methanol in Jiangsu Taicang was 2,300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton. The price in Inner Mongolia was 2,030 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton [2]. - The price difference between East China and Northwest China was 270 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton. The basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract was 59 yuan/ton, an increase of 19 yuan/ton [2]. - The CFR price of methanol at the main Chinese port was 261 US dollars/ton, an increase of 2 US dollars/ton. The CFR price in Southeast Asia was 332 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2]. - The FOB price in Rotterdam was 244 euros/ton, an increase of 1 euro/ton. The price difference between the main Chinese port and Southeast Asia was - 71 US dollars/ton, an increase of 2 US dollars/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas was 3.36 US dollars/million British thermal units, an increase of 0.25 US dollars/million British thermal units [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The inventory in East China ports was 32.70 tons, an increase of 0.30 tons. The inventory in South China ports was 16.34 tons, an increase of 0.35 tons [2]. - The import profit of methanol was 42.82 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19.65 yuan/ton. The monthly import volume was 47.30 tons, a decrease of 8.88 tons [2]. - The inventory of inland enterprises was 235,200 tons, a decrease of 38,400 tons. The operating rate of methanol enterprises was 88.47%, a decrease of 3.7% [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of formaldehyde was 50.87%, an increase of 0.33%. The operating rate of dimethyl ether was 8.97%, unchanged [2]. - The operating rate of acetic acid was 89.71%, an increase of 2.13%. The operating rate of MTBE was 56.09%, a decrease of 5.28% [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The operating rate of olefins was 83.29%, an increase of 0.74%. The on - disk profit of methanol - to - olefins was - 522 yuan/ton, an increase of 34 yuan/ton [2]. - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol was 21.74%, an increase of 0.43%. The 40 - day historical volatility of methanol was 24.41%, an increase of 0.16% [2]. - The implied volatility of the at - the - money call option of methanol was 17.06%, a decrease of 2.13%. The implied volatility of the at - the - money put option of methanol was 17.06%, a decrease of 2.12% [2]. 3.7 Industry News - As of May 21, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 49.24 tons, an increase of 0.85 tons compared with the previous period. Among them, the inventory in East China increased by 0.50 tons, and the inventory in South China increased by 0.35 tons [2]. - As of May 21, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 33.60 tons, an increase of 0.02 tons compared with the previous period, a year - on - year increase of 0.07%. The pending orders of sample enterprises were 3.52 tons, a decrease of 3.84 tons compared with the previous period, a year - on - year decrease of 14.03% [2]. - As of May 22, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefin plants was 83.84%, a month - on - month increase of 1.53%. The restart of the olefin maintenance device in East China led to an increase in the industry's operating rate [2]. 3.8 Suggested Attention - Pay attention to the inventory of Longzhong enterprises and ports on Wednesday [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View - The A2509 contract is recommended for short - term trading in the range of 2240 - 2330 yuan/ton [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2278 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan; the 5 - 9 spread is 77 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; the main contract's open interest is 654,944 lots, down 24,961 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 65,414 lots; the number of warehouse receipts is 6,934, down 172 [2]. Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2420 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; in Inner Mongolia, it's 2170 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the East - Northwest price spread is 250 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the basis of the Zhengzhou methanol main contract is 142 yuan/ton, up 42 yuan; CFR China Main Port is 269 dollars/ton, down 2 dollars; CFR Southeast Asia is 340 dollars/ton, unchanged; FOB Rotterdam is 264 euros/ton, down 6 euros; the China Main Port - Southeast Asia spread is - 71 dollars/ton, down 2 dollars [2]. Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas is 3.18 dollars/million British thermal units, up 0.22 dollars [2]. Industry Situation - The inventory in East China ports is 33.8 tons, down 9.23 tons; in South China ports, it's 12.52 tons, down 3.01 tons; the import profit is 86.04 yuan/ton; the monthly import volume is 47.3 tons, down 8.88 tons; the inventory of inland enterprises is 302,700 tons, up 28,300 tons; the methanol enterprise operating rate is 85.06%, down 2.31% [2]. Downstream Situation - The formaldehyde operating rate is 49.78%, down 2.74%; the dimethyl ether operating rate is 9.36%, up 0.75%; the acetic acid operating rate is 82.82%, up 1.47%; the MTBE operating rate is 65.01%, down 2.18%; the olefin operating rate is 82.81%, down 1.09%; the methanol - to - olefin on - paper profit is - 542 yuan/ton, up 76 yuan [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 27.72%, down 0.01%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 21.11%, up 0.12%; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 18.55%, up 0.9%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 18.55%, up 0.89% [2]. Industry News - As of April 23, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is 30.98 tons, down 0.26 tons (0.82%); the sample enterprises' orders to be delivered are 30.27 tons, up 2.83 tons (10.30%); the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports is 46.32 tons, down 12.24 tons; as of April 24, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefin plants is 82.81%, down 1.09% [2].

甲醇产业日报 2025-04-09 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价甲醇(日,元/吨) | 2352 | -16 甲醇5-9价差(日,元/吨) | 123 | 22 | | | 主力合约持仓量:甲醇(日,手) | 495866 | -28280 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:甲醇(日,手) | -19746 | 882 | | | 仓单数量:甲醇(日,张) | 7156 | 100 | | | | 现货市场 | 江苏太仓(日,元/吨) | 2440 | -45 内蒙古(日,元/吨) | 2100 | 2.5 | | | 华东-西北价差(日,元/吨) | 340 | -47.5 郑醇主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | 88 | -29 | | | 甲醇:CFR中国主港(日,美元/吨) | 274 | -2 CFR东南亚(日,美元/吨) | 354 | -1 | | | FOB鹿特丹(日,欧元/吨) | 311 | -2 中国主港-东南亚价差(日,美元/吨) | ...