态，新疆恒有预期本周开车，烯烃行业开工继续存在上涨空间。MA2509合约短线预计在2350-2400区间波 甲醇产业日报 2025-08-04 动。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价甲醇(日,元/吨) | 2390 | -3 甲醇9-1价差(日,元/吨) | -97 | -5 | | | 主力合约持仓量:甲醇(日,手) | 498785 | -34291 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:甲醇(日,手) | -96632 | 1816 | | | 仓 ...

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a methanol industry daily report dated July 30, 2025 [1] Group 2: Report Core Views - This week, methanol port inventories increased as expected, mainly in the South China region. Typhoon weather affected the unloading speed and inventory accumulation. The mainstream social warehouses in the Jiangsu - Zhejiang area and other consumption areas remained weak and stable, leading to continued inventory growth. Short - term on - the - way foreign vessels are still sufficient, and apparent demand may remain weak. It is expected that port methanol inventories may continue to accumulate, but the impact of weather factors on the unloading speed needs to be monitored [2] - Last week, the load of olefin enterprises in East China decreased slightly, while other enterprise devices operated stably. The overall domestic olefin industry's starting rate decreased slightly. This week, the Zhongmei Mengda device is expected to resume, which will increase the olefin industry's starting rate [2] - The MA2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2400 - 2460 in the short term [2] Group 3: Data Summary by Category Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract was 2419 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton; the 9 - 1 spread was - 91 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton; the main contract's open interest was 579345 lots, an increase of 3317 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 88181 lots; the number of warehouse receipts was 8834, a decrease of 1000 [2] Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang was 2400 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton; in Inner Mongolia, it was 2057.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 22.5 yuan/ton; the East - Northwest price spread was 342.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12.5 yuan/ton; the basis of the main methanol contract in Zhengzhou was - 19 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan/ton; CFR China Main Port was 275 dollars/ton, an increase of 2 dollars/ton; CFR Southeast Asia was 333 dollars/ton, unchanged; FOB Rotterdam was 239 euros/ton, an increase of 4 euros/ton; the China Main Port - Southeast Asia price spread was - 58 dollars/ton, an increase of 2 dollars/ton [2] Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas was 3.07 dollars/million British thermal units, an increase of 0.04 dollars/million British thermal units [2] Industry Situation - The inventory in East China ports was 54.7 tons, a decrease of 8.7 tons; in South China ports, it was 17.88 tons, an increase of 2.26 tons; the methanol import profit was - 1.56 yuan/ton, a decrease of 24.54 yuan/ton; the monthly import volume was 122.02 tons, a decrease of 7.21 tons; the inventory of inland enterprises was 339800 tons, a decrease of 12500 tons; the methanol enterprise operating rate was 83.98%, an increase of 1.29% [2] Downstream Situation - The formaldehyde operating rate was 37.74%, a decrease of 5.91%; the dimethyl ether operating rate was 5.19%, unchanged; the acetic acid operating rate was 92.69%, an increase of 2.1%; the MTBE operating rate was 69.01%, an increase of 1.38%; the olefin operating rate was 84.95%, a decrease of 0.15%; the methanol - to - olefin spot profit was - 912 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol was 26.01%, a decrease of 0.03%; the 40 - day historical volatility was 27.45%, a decrease of 0.31%; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 19.93%, a decrease of 5.4%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 19.93%, a decrease of 5.39% [2] Industry News - As of July 30, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 32.45 tons, a decrease of 1.53 tons from the previous period, a 4.51% decrease; the orders to be delivered by sample enterprises were 23.07 tons, a decrease of 1.41 tons from the previous period, a 5.76% decrease [2] - As of July 30, the total Chinese methanol port inventory was 80.84 tons, an increase of 8.26 tons from the previous data. The inventory in East China increased by 2.50 tons, and in South China by 5.76 tons [2] - As of July 24, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefin plants was 86.08%, a decrease of 0.15% from the previous period [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall methanol production has slightly decreased recently as the loss of production capacity due to domestic methanol maintenance and production cuts exceeds the output of restored production capacity. The inventory performance of inland enterprises varies. Some enterprises' inventory continues to accumulate due to weak downstream demand, while the inventory of some olefin plants decreases as the pre - accumulated methanol inventory is gradually consumed after restoration. The methanol port inventory continues to accumulate. The downstream demand remains weak, and the MA2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2360 - 2430 yuan/ton in the short term [2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2367 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan; the 9 - 1 spread is - 67 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan. The main contract's open interest is 654,082 lots, up 3,207 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 121,457 lots, down 9,436 lots. The number of warehouse receipts is 8,931, down 320 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2375 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; in Inner Mongolia, it is 1972.5 yuan/ton, down 2.5 yuan. The price difference between East China and Northwest is 402.5 yuan/ton, down 7.5 yuan; the basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract is 8 yuan. The CFR price at the main Chinese port is 277 US dollars/ton, unchanged; CFR Southeast Asia is 333 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The FOB price in Rotterdam is 241 euros/ton, unchanged. The price difference between the main Chinese port and Southeast Asia is - 56 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas is 3.51 US dollars/million British thermal units, up 0.06 US dollars [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The inventory in East China ports is 57.05 tons, up 6.1 tons; in South China ports, it is 14.84 tons, down 1.58 tons. The methanol import profit is - 21.11 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan. The monthly import volume is 129.23 tons, up 50.46 tons. The inventory of inland enterprises is 356,900 tons, up 4,600 tons. The methanol enterprise operating rate is 84.75%, down 3.43 percentage points [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The formaldehyde operating rate is 45.24%, down 0.83 percentage points; the acetic acid operating rate is 93.91%. The dimethyl ether operating rate is 5.19%; the MTBE operating rate is 66.86%, up 1.8 percentage points. The olefin operating rate is 85.15%, up 0.55 percentage points. The methanol - to - olefin profit on the disk is - 888 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 21.83%, down 2.05 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility is 22.77%, up 0.02 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 17.24%, up 0.3 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 17.23%, up 0.28 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Industry News - As of July 16, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is 35.23 tons, down 0.46 tons from the previous period, a 1.28% decrease; the pending orders of sample enterprises are 24.31 tons, up 2.19 tons from the previous period, a 9.89% increase. The total port inventory of Chinese methanol is 79.02 tons, up 7.13 tons from the previous data. The domestic methanol - to - olefin device capacity utilization rate is 85.94%, up 0.55 percentage points [2].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - The overall production of methanol has slightly decreased recently as the capacity loss from domestic methanol maintenance and production cuts exceeds the output from capacity recovery. The inventory of some enterprises has increased slightly due to fewer transport vehicles and low enthusiasm of traders for提货. The port inventory in East China has increased, while that in South China has decreased. The overall downstream demand remains weak, and the port methanol inventory is expected to accumulate slightly. The olefin industry's overall operating rate may increase slightly this week, but some MTO units are expected to shut down, and attention should be paid to the implementation of low - profit maintenance of MTO units. The MA2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2350 - 2430 in the short term [2][3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2386 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; the 9 - 1 spread is - 69 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest is 650,875 lots, down 4,644 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 112,021 lots, down 8,122 lots. The number of warehouse receipts is 9,251, up 723 [2]. Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2385 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton; the price in Inner Mongolia is 1975 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price difference between East China and Northwest China is 410 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton; the basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract is - 1 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton. The CFR price at the main Chinese port is 277 US dollars/ton, up 4 US dollars/ton; the CFR price in Southeast Asia is 333 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The FOB price in Rotterdam is 241 euros/ton, down 4 euros/ton; the price difference between the main Chinese port and Southeast Asia is - 56 US dollars/ton, up 4 US dollars/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas is 3.45 US dollars/million British thermal units, up 0.09 US dollars/million British thermal units [2]. Industry Situation - The inventory in East China ports is 57.05 million tons, up 6.1 million tons; the inventory in South China ports is 14.84 million tons, down 1.58 million tons. The import profit of methanol is - 26.11 yuan/ton, down 29.09 yuan/ton; the monthly import volume is 129.23 million tons, up 50.46 million tons. The inventory of inland enterprises is 356,900 tons, up 4,600 tons; the operating rate of methanol enterprises is 84.75%, down 3.43 percentage points [2]. Downstream Situation - The operating rate of formaldehyde is 45.24%, down 0.83 percentage points; the operating rate of dimethyl ether is 5.19%, unchanged. The operating rate of acetic acid is 93.91%, up 0.49 percentage points; the operating rate of MTBE is 66.86%, up 1.8 percentage points. The operating rate of olefins is 85.15%, up 0.55 percentage points; the on - paper profit of methanol - to - olefins is - 943 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan/ton [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 23.88%, up 0.01 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility is 22.75%, down 0.02 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 16.94%, up 0.89 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 16.95%, up 0.9 percentage points [2]. Industry News - As of July 9, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 35.69 million tons, up 0.46 million tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 1.31%; the orders to be delivered by sample enterprises were 22.12 million tons, down 2.00 million tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 8.29%. The total inventory at Chinese methanol ports was 71.89 million tons, up 4.52 million tons from the previous data. The inventory in East China increased, while the inventory in South China decreased [2].

Report Overview - Report Date: July 14, 2025 - Report Name: Methanol Industry Daily Report 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall production of methanol has decreased slightly due to more capacity losses from maintenance and production cuts than capacity outputs from restarts. The port inventory of methanol may accumulate slightly as downstream demand remains weak. The olefin industry's overall start - up increased slightly last week, and the start - up rate may continue to rise slightly this week, but some MTO devices are expected to stop. The MA2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2350 - 2430 yuan/ton [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2396 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan/ton; the 9 - 1 spread is - 67 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest is 655,519 lots, down 29,742 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 103,899 lots. The number of warehouse receipts is 8,528, down 162 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2370 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; the price in Inner Mongolia is 1975 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton. The price difference between East China and Northwest is 395 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton; the basis of the Zhengzhou methanol main contract is - 26 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton. The CFR price at the main Chinese port is 273 US dollars/ton, down 4 US dollars/ton; the CFR price in Southeast Asia is 333 US dollars/ton, down 2 US dollars/ton. The FOB price in Rotterdam is 245 euros/ton, up 1 euro/ton. The price difference between the Chinese main port and Southeast Asia is - 60 US dollars/ton, down 2 US dollars/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas is 3.36 US dollars/million British thermal units, down 0.01 US dollars/million British thermal units [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The inventory in East China ports is 57.05 tons, up 6.1 tons; the inventory in South China ports is 14.84 tons, down 1.58 tons. The import profit of methanol is 2.98 yuan/ton, up 24.09 yuan/ton; the monthly import volume is 129.23 tons, up 50.46 tons. The inventory of inland enterprises is 356,900 tons, up 4,600 tons; the methanol enterprise start - up rate is 84.75%, down 3.43% [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The start - up rate of formaldehyde is 45.24%, down 0.83%; the start - up rate of dimethyl ether is 5.19%, unchanged; the start - up rate of acetic acid is 93.91%, up 0.49%; the start - up rate of MTBE is 66.86%, up 1.8%; the start - up rate of olefins is 85.15%, up 0.55%. The methanol - to - olefin disk profit is - 921 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan/ton [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 23.87%, down 2.31%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 22.77%, down 0.24%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options and put options of methanol is 16.05%, up 0.38% [2]. 3.7 Industry News - As of July 9, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 35.69 tons, up 0.46 tons, a 1.31% increase; the order backlog of sample enterprises was 22.12 tons, down 2.00 tons, an 8.29% decrease. The total port inventory of Chinese methanol was 71.89 tons, up 4.52 tons. The inventory in East China increased by 6.1 tons, and the inventory in South China decreased by 1.58 tons. As of July 10, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefin devices was 85.94%, a 0.55% increase [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The MA2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2400 - 2460 yuan/ton in the short - term. The recent domestic methanol production has a slight increase as the output of restored capacity is more than that of overhauled and reduced - production capacity. The enterprise inventory has rapidly accumulated this week due to the unexpected recovery of some olefin plants in the northwest region while the supporting methanol plants operate normally. The port inventory has a narrow - range fluctuation, with the East China region accumulating inventory and the South China region reducing inventory. The domestic methanol - to - olefin industry's operating rate has declined slightly last week and may continue to decrease as the second - phase of Yanchang Zhongmei Yulin is expected to shut down for maintenance this week [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2404 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton; the 9 - 1 spread is - 30 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest is 736,161 lots, down 20,566 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 89,335 lots, up 13,136 lots. The number of warehouse receipts is 7,885, unchanged [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2460 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton; the price in Inner Mongolia is 1990 yuan/ton, up 47.5 yuan/ton. The East - West price difference is 470 yuan/ton, down 107.5 yuan/ton; the basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract is 56 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan/ton. The CFR price at the main Chinese port is 283 US dollars/ton, down 4 US dollars/ton; the CFR price in Southeast Asia is 350 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The FOB price in Rotterdam is 259 euros/ton, down 2 euros/ton; the price difference between the main Chinese port and Southeast Asia is - 67 US dollars/ton, down 4 US dollars/ton [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas is 3.42 US dollars/million British thermal units, down 0.04 US dollars [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The inventory at East China ports is 49.6 tons, up 5.9 tons; the inventory at South China ports is 17.45 tons, up 2.51 tons. The methanol import profit is 67.74 yuan/ton, down 222.49 yuan/ton; the monthly import volume is 129.23 tons, up 50.46 tons. The inventory of inland enterprises is 341,600 tons, down 25,800 tons; the operating rate of methanol enterprises is 91.31%, up 2.66 percentage points [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of formaldehyde is 48.95%, down 1.44 percentage points; the operating rate of dimethyl ether is 9.16%, up 0.5 percentage points. The operating rate of acetic acid is 95.35%, up 7.02 percentage points; the operating rate of MTBE is 64.4%, up 0.69 percentage points. The operating rate of olefins is 87.41%, down 1.81 percentage points; the methanol - to - olefin disk profit is - 940 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan/ton [3] 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 29.35%, down 0.58 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility is 25.04%, down 0.27 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options and put options is 17.08%, down 2.51 percentage points [3] 3.7 Industry News - As of July 2, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is 352,300 tons, up 10,700 tons or 3.14% from the previous period; the sample enterprises' orders to be delivered are 241,300 tons, up 500 tons or 0.23% from the previous period. The inventory of Chinese methanol ports is 673,700 tons, up 3,200 tons from the previous data. As of June 26, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefin plants is 87.96%, down 1.12 percentage points [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The MA2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2370 - 2410 in the short - term [2]. - Due to more production from restored domestic methanol capacity than that from maintenance and production - cut capacity, the overall output has increased slightly. Affected by long - term centralized settlement in the northwest production area and the steady execution of previous orders, enterprise inventory decreased significantly last week. With normal unloading of foreign vessels and some domestic products directly delivered to downstream, and influenced by downstream factors on social warehouse pick - up, methanol port inventory increased significantly [2]. - The domestic methanol - to - olefins industry's operating rate decreased slightly last week. With the expected shutdown and maintenance of the second - phase of Yanchang Zhongmei Yulin next week, the olefins industry's operating rate may continue to decline [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract was 2381 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton; the 9 - 1 spread of methanol was - 32 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton [2]. - The main contract's open interest of methanol was 759,976 lots, down 24,522 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 90,502 lots, down 8,943 lots [2]. - The number of warehouse receipts for methanol was 7,885, down 132 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang was 2790 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton; the price in Inner Mongolia was 1992.5 yuan/ton, down 7.5 yuan/ton [2]. - The price spread between East China and Northwest China was 797.5 yuan/ton, down 32.5 yuan/ton; the basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract was 409 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan/ton [2]. - The CFR price of methanol at the main Chinese port was 287 US dollars/ton, down 4 US dollars/ton; the CFR price in Southeast Asia was 350 US dollars/ton, up 3 US dollars/ton [2]. - The FOB price in Rotterdam was 262 euros/ton, unchanged; the price spread between the main Chinese port and Southeast Asia was - 63 US dollars/ton, down 7 US dollars/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas was 3.75 US dollars/million British thermal units, up 0.45 US dollars/million British thermal units [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The inventory at East China ports was 49.6 tons, up 5.9 tons; the inventory at South China ports was 17.45 tons, up 2.51 tons [2]. - The import profit of methanol was 320.23 yuan/ton, up 131.65 yuan/ton; the monthly import volume was 129.23 tons, up 50.46 tons [2]. - The inventory of inland enterprises was 341,600 tons, down 25,800 tons; the operating rate of methanol enterprises was 91.31%, up 2.66 percentage points [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of formaldehyde was 48.95%, down 1.44 percentage points; the operating rate of dimethyl ether was 9.16%, up 0.5 percentage points [2]. - The operating rate of acetic acid was 95.35%, up 7.02 percentage points; the operating rate of MTBE was 64.4%, up 0.69 percentage points [2]. - The operating rate of olefins was 87.41%, down 1.81 percentage points; the on - paper profit of methanol - to - olefins was - 873 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol was 29.95%, up 0.02 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of methanol was 25.53%, down 0.24 percentage points [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for methanol was 20.01%, up 0.77 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for methanol was 20.01%, up 0.91 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Industry News - As of June 25, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 34.16 tons, down 2.58 tons or 7.02% from the previous period; the pending orders of sample enterprises were 24.07 tons, down 3.31 tons or 12.08% from the previous period [2]. - As of June 25, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 67.05 tons, up 8.41 tons from the previous data. East China and South China ports both saw inventory increases [2]. - As of June 26, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefins plants was 87.96%, down 1.12% from the previous period [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The overall production of methanol has increased slightly as the output of restored production capacity exceeds that of maintenance and production - cut capacity. The inventory of domestic methanol enterprises continued to rise last week due to insufficient transportation capacity in the northwest production area and slower enterprise shipping rhythm. The methanol port inventory increased as scheduled last week with smooth unloading of imported vessels. The demand side shows that the olefin industry's device operation is stable, and the domestic methanol - to - olefin industry's operating rate has increased. The MA2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2370 - 2500 in the short term [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2455 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan; the 9 - 1 spread is 0 yuan/ton, unchanged; the open interest of the main contract is 816410 lots, down 3696 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures positions is - 55866 lots, up 28548 lots; the number of warehouse receipts is 9759, unchanged [2] 现货市场 - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2570 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; in Inner Mongolia, it is 1950 yuan/ton, unchanged; the East - West price difference is 620 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the basis of the Zhengzhou methanol main contract is 115 yuan/ton, up 39 yuan; CFR China Main Port is 298 dollars/ton, up 13 dollars; CFR Southeast Asia is 325 dollars/ton, unchanged; FOB Rotterdam is 275 euros/ton, down 2 euros; the China Main Port - Southeast Asia price difference is - 27 dollars/ton, up 13 dollars [2] Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas is 3.74 dollars/million British thermal units, up 0.13 dollars [2] Industry Situation - The inventory in East China ports is 46.8 tons, up 4.57 tons; in South China ports, it is 18.42 tons, up 2.53 tons; the methanol import profit is - 15.77 yuan/ton, down 6.27 yuan; the monthly import volume is 78.77 tons, up 31.47 tons; the inventory of inland enterprises is 379100 tons, up 116900 tons; the methanol enterprise operating rate is 87.98%, down 0.14% [2] Downstream Situation - The formaldehyde operating rate is 50.89%, down 0.22%; the dimethyl ether operating rate is 7.7%, down 1.82%; the acetic acid operating rate is 95.65%, up 17.78%; the MTBE operating rate is 59.7%, up 4.98%; the olefin operating rate is 88.56%, up 2.08%; the methanol - to - olefin disk profit is - 1040 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 21.33%, down 0.08%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 21.52%, down 0.06%; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 25.16%, up 4.16%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 25.18%, up 4.17% [2] Industry News - As of June 11, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 37.91 tons, up 0.86 tons from the previous period, a 2.33% increase; the pending orders of sample enterprises were 30.21 tons, up 3.99 tons from the previous period, a 15.22% increase. The total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 65.22 tons, up 7.10 tons from the previous data. The inventory in East China and South China increased by 4.57 tons and 2.53 tons respectively [2]

甲醇产业日报 2025-06-10 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价甲醇(日,元/吨) | 2276 | -1 甲醇9-1价差(日,元/吨) | -62 | -1 | | | 主力合约持仓量:甲醇(日,手) | 832017 | 12925 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:甲醇(日,手) | -82869 | 7448 | | | 仓单数量:甲醇(日,张) | 8120 | 3520 | | | | 现货市场 | 江苏太仓(日,元/吨) | 2360 | 35 内蒙古(日,元/吨) | 1895 | 12.5 | | | 华东-西北价差(日,元/吨) | 465 | 22.5 郑醇主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | 84 | 36 | | | 甲醇:CFR中国主港(日,美元/吨) | 266 | 3 CFR东南亚(日,美元/吨) | 322 | 0 | | | FOB鹿特丹(日,欧元/吨) | 275 | -1 中国主港-东南亚价差(日,美元/吨) | -56 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Recently, the output of restored domestic methanol production capacity exceeds that of overhauled and reduced - capacity production, leading to a slight increase in overall output. Due to insufficient transportation capacity in the northwest production area, the enterprise shipping rhythm has slowed down, and domestic methanol enterprise inventories have continued to increase this week. Outer - ship unloading is basically in line with expectations, and methanol port inventories have increased as scheduled. In the demand aspect, the restart of Ningxia Baofeng Phase II and the load increase of Shandong Hengtong have led to an increase in the domestic methanol - to - olefins industry's operating rate this week. The MA2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2240 - 2300 in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2259 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan; the 9 - 1 spread is - 60 yuan/ton, with no change; the main contract's open interest is 812,450 lots, down 23,148 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 78,295 lots; the number of warehouse receipts is 4,600, up 2,000 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2300 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan; in Inner Mongolia, it is 1892.5 yuan/ton, up 27.5 yuan; the East - Northwest price difference is 407.5 yuan/ton, down 12.5 yuan; the basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract is 41 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan; CFR China Main Port is 262 dollars/ton, up 2 dollars; CFR Southeast Asia is 320 dollars/ton, with no change; FOB Rotterdam is 265 euros/ton, up 8 euros; the China Main Port - Southeast Asia price difference is - 58 dollars/ton, up 2 dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas is 3.71 dollars/million British thermal units, down 0.01 dollars [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The inventory in East China ports is 42.23 tons, up 5.13 tons; in South China ports, it is 15.89 tons, up 0.69 tons; the methanol import profit is 16.75 yuan/ton, up 17.86 yuan; the monthly import volume is 78.77 tons, up 31.47 tons; the inventory of inland enterprises is 262,200 tons, up 12,300 tons; the methanol enterprise operating rate is 87.19%, up 0.15 percentage points [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The formaldehyde operating rate is 51.04%, up 0.24 percentage points; the acetic acid operating rate is 76%, with no change; the dimethyl ether operating rate is 10.25%, up 0.73 percentage points; the MTBE operating rate is 54.24%, down 1.11 percentage points; the olefin operating rate is 85.19%, up 1.37 percentage points; the methanol - to - olefins paper profit is - 666 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 20.42%, down 0.11 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility is 24.55%, down 0.07 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 18.04%, down 0.14 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 18.05%, down 0.14 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Industry News - As of June 4, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is 37.05 tons, up 1.55 tons, a 4.38% increase; the sample enterprises' orders to be delivered are 26.22 tons, up 1.23 tons, a 4.92% increase. The total methanol port inventory in China is 58.12 tons, up 5.82 tons. As of June 5, the domestic methanol - to - olefins plant capacity utilization rate is 86.88%, up 1.69 percentage points [2].