Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The methanol port inventory fluctuates slightly in the short - term, with an expected increase in the next week due to the anticipated rise in short - term visible unloading volume and no obvious improvement in demand. - Affected by cost pressure and falling downstream prices, the short - term olefin enterprise operation rate may continue to decline. - The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2230 - 2300 [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2257 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton; the 1 - 5 spread is - 64 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton. - The position of the main contract is 1197415 lots, down 23877 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 220178 lots, up 17268 lots. - The number of warehouse receipts is 12122, down 1750 [2]. Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2200 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton; the price in Inner Mongolia is 2010 yuan/ton, down 2.5 yuan/ton. - The price difference between East China and Northwest is 190 yuan/ton, down 12.5 yuan/ton; the basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract is - 41 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton. - The CFR price of methanol at the main Chinese port is 257 dollars/ton, down 3 dollars/ton; the CFR price in Southeast Asia is 324 dollars/ton, unchanged. - The FOB price in Rotterdam is 267 euros/ton, down 1 euro/ton; the price difference between the main Chinese port and Southeast Asia is - 67 dollars/ton, down 3 dollars/ton [2]. Upstream Situation The price of NYMEX natural gas is 3.25 dollars/million British thermal units, down 0.15 dollars/million British thermal units [2]. Industry Situation - The inventory in East China ports is 102.7 tons, up 3 tons; the inventory in South China ports is 48.52 tons, down 0.92 tons. - The import profit of methanol is - 4.75 yuan/ton, up 10.36 yuan/ton; the monthly import volume is 142.69 tons, down 33.29 tons. - The inventory of inland enterprises is 360400 tons, up 500 tons; the operation rate of methanol enterprises is 85.65%, down 1.77% [2]. Downstream Situation - The operation rate of formaldehyde is 38.87%, down 2.01%; the operation rate of dimethyl ether is 5.33%, down 0.59%. - The operation rate of acetic acid is 74.4%, up 1.88%; the operation rate of MTBE is 67.79%, up 4.67%. - The operation rate of olefins is 90.43%, down 1.96%; the on - disk profit of methanol - to - olefins is - 886 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 18.39%, up 0.31%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 15.34%, up 0.03%. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for methanol is 18.45%, up 1.01%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 18.45%, up 1.17% [2]. Industry News - As of October 29, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is 37.61 tons, up 1.57 tons, a 4.36% increase; the pending orders of sample enterprises are 21.56 tons, down 0.01 tons, a 0.04% decrease. - As of October 29, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports is 150.65 tons, down 0.57 tons. Among them, the inventory in East China has decreased by 2.97 tons, and the inventory in South China has increased by 2.40 tons. - The domestic methanol production has decreased due to more capacity losses from maintenance and production cuts than capacity output from recovery. The enterprise shipment rhythm is okay, and the unloading speed is average, with a large volume of unloading at non - dominant terminals [2].

盐湖等前期检修装置陆续重启，MTO行业整体维持高位开工，中原乙烯烯烃装置后期存在停车预期，其他 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价甲醇(日,元/吨) | 2342 | 35 甲醇1-5价差(日,元/吨) | -12 | 32 | | | 主力合约持仓量:甲醇(日,手) | 991942 | -9556 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:甲醇(日,手) | -115723 | 28069 | | | 仓单数量:甲醇(日,张) | 11282 | -100 | | | | 现货市场 | 江苏太仓(日,元/吨) | 2290 | 85 内蒙古(日,元/吨) | 2070 | 2.5 | | | 华东-西北价差(日,元/吨) | 220 | NAN 郑醇主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | -52 | 50 | | | 甲醇:CFR中国主港(日,美元/吨) | 256 | 0 CFR东 ...

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价甲醇(日,元/吨) | 2359 | 4 甲醇1-5价差(日,元/吨) | -29 | 0 572 | | | 主力合约持仓量:甲醇(日,手) | 869500 | -15632 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:甲醇(日,手) | -137911 | | | | 仓单数量:甲醇(日,张) | 10832 | -500 | | | | 现货市场 | 江苏太仓(日,元/吨) | 2245 | 5 内蒙古(日,元/吨) | 2090 | 0 | | | 华东-西北价差(日,元/吨) | 155 | NAN 郑醇主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | -114 | 1 | | | 甲醇:CFR中国主港(日,美元/吨) | 261 | -1 CFR东南亚(日,美元/吨) | 326 | 0 | | | FOB鹿特丹(日,欧元/吨) | 280 | -1 中国主港-东南亚价差(日,美元/吨) | -65 | -1 | | 上游情况 | NYMEX ...

甲醇产业日报 2025-09-18 提升，宁夏宝丰三期以及神华新疆烯烃装置预计下周重启，行业开工率或继续提升。MA2601合约短线预计 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 在2300-2380区间波动。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 环比 数据指标 | | | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价甲醇(日,元/吨) | 2346 | -30 甲醇1-5价差(日,元/吨) | -39 | -18 -2299 | | | 主力合约持仓量:甲醇(日,手) ...

期上涨。MA2601合约短线预计在2350-2410区间波动。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价甲醇(日,元/吨) | 2396 | 17 甲醇1-5价差(日,元/吨) | -12 | -6 11985 | | | 主力合约持仓量:甲醇(日,手) | 783891 | -14520 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:甲醇(日,手) | -112186 | | | | 仓单数量:甲醇(日,张) | 16131 | 0 | | | | 现货市场 | 江苏 ...

冲之后短期行业开工率或稍有下降。MA2601合约短线预计在2360-2440区间波动。 免责声明 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价甲醇(日,元/吨) | 2407 | 9 甲醇1-5价差(日,元/吨) | -2 | -9 -1880 | | | 主力合约持仓量:甲醇(日,手) | 755966 | -12659 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:甲醇(日,手) | -108488 | | | | 仓单数量:甲醇(日,张) | 14519 | 983 | | | | 现货市场 | 江苏太仓(日,元/吨) | 2285 | 15 内蒙古(日,元/吨) | 2127.5 | 30 | | | 华东-西北价差(日,元/吨) | 157.5 | -15 郑醇主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | -122 | 6 | | | 甲醇:CFR中国主港(日,美元/吨) | 262 | 0 CFR东南亚(日,美元/吨) | 323 | 0 | | | FOB鹿特丹(日,欧元/吨) | ...

| | | 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价甲醇(日,元/吨) | 2385 | 24 甲醇1-5价差(日,元/吨) | -5 | 6 | | | 主力合约持仓量:甲醇(日,手) | 799308 | -21711 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:甲醇(日,手) | -111203 | 3946 | | | 仓单数量:甲醇(日,张) | 9516 | -230 | | | | 现货市场 | 江苏太仓(日,元/吨) | 2210 | -10 内蒙古(日,元/吨 ...

态，新疆恒有预期本周开车，烯烃行业开工继续存在上涨空间。MA2509合约短线预计在2350-2400区间波 甲醇产业日报 2025-08-04 动。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价甲醇(日,元/吨) | 2390 | -3 甲醇9-1价差(日,元/吨) | -97 | -5 | | | 主力合约持仓量:甲醇(日,手) | 498785 | -34291 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:甲醇(日,手) | -96632 | 1816 | | | 仓 ...

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a methanol industry daily report dated July 30, 2025 [1] Group 2: Report Core Views - This week, methanol port inventories increased as expected, mainly in the South China region. Typhoon weather affected the unloading speed and inventory accumulation. The mainstream social warehouses in the Jiangsu - Zhejiang area and other consumption areas remained weak and stable, leading to continued inventory growth. Short - term on - the - way foreign vessels are still sufficient, and apparent demand may remain weak. It is expected that port methanol inventories may continue to accumulate, but the impact of weather factors on the unloading speed needs to be monitored [2] - Last week, the load of olefin enterprises in East China decreased slightly, while other enterprise devices operated stably. The overall domestic olefin industry's starting rate decreased slightly. This week, the Zhongmei Mengda device is expected to resume, which will increase the olefin industry's starting rate [2] - The MA2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2400 - 2460 in the short term [2] Group 3: Data Summary by Category Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract was 2419 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton; the 9 - 1 spread was - 91 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton; the main contract's open interest was 579345 lots, an increase of 3317 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 88181 lots; the number of warehouse receipts was 8834, a decrease of 1000 [2] Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang was 2400 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton; in Inner Mongolia, it was 2057.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 22.5 yuan/ton; the East - Northwest price spread was 342.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12.5 yuan/ton; the basis of the main methanol contract in Zhengzhou was - 19 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan/ton; CFR China Main Port was 275 dollars/ton, an increase of 2 dollars/ton; CFR Southeast Asia was 333 dollars/ton, unchanged; FOB Rotterdam was 239 euros/ton, an increase of 4 euros/ton; the China Main Port - Southeast Asia price spread was - 58 dollars/ton, an increase of 2 dollars/ton [2] Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas was 3.07 dollars/million British thermal units, an increase of 0.04 dollars/million British thermal units [2] Industry Situation - The inventory in East China ports was 54.7 tons, a decrease of 8.7 tons; in South China ports, it was 17.88 tons, an increase of 2.26 tons; the methanol import profit was - 1.56 yuan/ton, a decrease of 24.54 yuan/ton; the monthly import volume was 122.02 tons, a decrease of 7.21 tons; the inventory of inland enterprises was 339800 tons, a decrease of 12500 tons; the methanol enterprise operating rate was 83.98%, an increase of 1.29% [2] Downstream Situation - The formaldehyde operating rate was 37.74%, a decrease of 5.91%; the dimethyl ether operating rate was 5.19%, unchanged; the acetic acid operating rate was 92.69%, an increase of 2.1%; the MTBE operating rate was 69.01%, an increase of 1.38%; the olefin operating rate was 84.95%, a decrease of 0.15%; the methanol - to - olefin spot profit was - 912 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol was 26.01%, a decrease of 0.03%; the 40 - day historical volatility was 27.45%, a decrease of 0.31%; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 19.93%, a decrease of 5.4%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 19.93%, a decrease of 5.39% [2] Industry News - As of July 30, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 32.45 tons, a decrease of 1.53 tons from the previous period, a 4.51% decrease; the orders to be delivered by sample enterprises were 23.07 tons, a decrease of 1.41 tons from the previous period, a 5.76% decrease [2] - As of July 30, the total Chinese methanol port inventory was 80.84 tons, an increase of 8.26 tons from the previous data. The inventory in East China increased by 2.50 tons, and in South China by 5.76 tons [2] - As of July 24, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefin plants was 86.08%, a decrease of 0.15% from the previous period [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall methanol production has slightly decreased recently as the loss of production capacity due to domestic methanol maintenance and production cuts exceeds the output of restored production capacity. The inventory performance of inland enterprises varies. Some enterprises' inventory continues to accumulate due to weak downstream demand, while the inventory of some olefin plants decreases as the pre - accumulated methanol inventory is gradually consumed after restoration. The methanol port inventory continues to accumulate. The downstream demand remains weak, and the MA2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2360 - 2430 yuan/ton in the short term [2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2367 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan; the 9 - 1 spread is - 67 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan. The main contract's open interest is 654,082 lots, up 3,207 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 121,457 lots, down 9,436 lots. The number of warehouse receipts is 8,931, down 320 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2375 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; in Inner Mongolia, it is 1972.5 yuan/ton, down 2.5 yuan. The price difference between East China and Northwest is 402.5 yuan/ton, down 7.5 yuan; the basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract is 8 yuan. The CFR price at the main Chinese port is 277 US dollars/ton, unchanged; CFR Southeast Asia is 333 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The FOB price in Rotterdam is 241 euros/ton, unchanged. The price difference between the main Chinese port and Southeast Asia is - 56 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas is 3.51 US dollars/million British thermal units, up 0.06 US dollars [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The inventory in East China ports is 57.05 tons, up 6.1 tons; in South China ports, it is 14.84 tons, down 1.58 tons. The methanol import profit is - 21.11 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan. The monthly import volume is 129.23 tons, up 50.46 tons. The inventory of inland enterprises is 356,900 tons, up 4,600 tons. The methanol enterprise operating rate is 84.75%, down 3.43 percentage points [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The formaldehyde operating rate is 45.24%, down 0.83 percentage points; the acetic acid operating rate is 93.91%. The dimethyl ether operating rate is 5.19%; the MTBE operating rate is 66.86%, up 1.8 percentage points. The olefin operating rate is 85.15%, up 0.55 percentage points. The methanol - to - olefin profit on the disk is - 888 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 21.83%, down 2.05 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility is 22.77%, up 0.02 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 17.24%, up 0.3 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 17.23%, up 0.28 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Industry News - As of July 16, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is 35.23 tons, down 0.46 tons from the previous period, a 1.28% decrease; the pending orders of sample enterprises are 24.31 tons, up 2.19 tons from the previous period, a 9.89% increase. The total port inventory of Chinese methanol is 79.02 tons, up 7.13 tons from the previous data. The domestic methanol - to - olefin device capacity utilization rate is 85.94%, up 0.55 percentage points [2].