Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The overall supply of the domestic methanol market has increased recently, with the output rising as the loss of production capacity from domestic methanol overhauls and cut - backs is less than the output from restored production capacity. The inventory of inland enterprises has slightly increased, and port inventory has basically remained stable, showing accumulation in East China and destocking in South China. It is expected that the port methanol inventory will decline next week, and the demand may continue to recover. It is recommended to wait and see due to large short - term price fluctuations affected by the Middle East situation [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2,553 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan; the 5 - 9 spread is 119 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The main contract's open interest is 802,920 lots, down 139,737 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 129,444 lots, down 33,355 lots. The number of warehouse receipts is 8,931, unchanged [3]. Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2,450 yuan/ton, up 170 yuan; in Inner Mongolia, it is 1,960 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan. The East - West price difference is 490 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan; the basis of the Zhengzhou methanol main contract is - 107 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan. The CFR price at the Chinese main port is 297 US dollars/ton, up 17 US dollars; the CFR price in Southeast Asia is 330 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars. The FOB price in Rotterdam is 328 euros/ton, up 28 euros. The price difference between the Chinese main port and Southeast Asia is - 33 US dollars/ton, up 12 US dollars [3]. Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas is 3.04 US dollars/million British thermal units, up 0.06 US dollars [3]. Industry Situation - The inventory at East China ports is 1.0442 million tons, down 500 tons; at South China ports, it is 402,500 tons, up 15,000 tons. The import profit of methanol is 18.39 yuan/ton, up 50.8 yuan. The monthly import volume is 1.734 million tons, up 316,400 tons. The inventory of inland enterprises is 535,300 tons, up 195,000 tons. The methanol enterprise operating rate is 92.8%, up 0.73 percentage points [3]. Downstream Situation - The formaldehyde operating rate is 14.7%, up 2.65 percentage points; the dimethyl ether operating rate is 3.33%, down 1.06 percentage points; the acetic acid operating rate is 84.11%, down 0.49 percentage points; the MTBE operating rate is 67.22%, down 0.65 percentage points; the olefin operating rate is 84.08%, unchanged. The MTO disk profit is - 953 yuan/ton, up 295 yuan [3]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 48.32%, down 0.68 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility is 37.89%, up 0.01 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 51.43%, up 14.38 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 51.46%, up 14.38 percentage points [3]. Industry News - As of March 4, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is 552,400 tons, up 17,100 tons, a 3.19% increase; the sample enterprises' orders to be delivered are 295,200 tons, up 85,500 tons, a 104.91% increase. The total port inventory of Chinese methanol is 1.4435 million tons, down 3,200 tons. East China has accumulated inventory, up 24,200 tons; South China has destocked, down 27,400 tons. As of February 26, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefins plants is 85.32%, up 1.86 percentage points [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The methanol port inventory has accumulated slightly compared to before the Spring Festival. Although the unloading speed of foreign vessels during the period was average, the restricted提货 during the holiday also affected consumption. The MTO device load in the Yangtze - River Delta region is not high currently, and there is an expectation of recovery in the near future, and the port will enter the destocking stage. However, the terminal demand is difficult to recover quickly, and the overall rigid demand is weak. There are no plans for device changes in domestic MTO enterprises in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the restart time of two MTO devices in East China. The inventory pressure of inland enterprises was partially transferred through pre - sale before the Spring Festival, but the downstream digestion was slow, and the post - festival procurement demand is still weak. Attention should also be paid to the destocking after the spring inspection and the post - festival demand recovery. Affected by the Middle East situation, there is an expected reduction in methanol production and exports from Iran. The short - term futures price may be strong, but it is not advisable to blindly chase the rise. Be cautious of the callback correction caused by the rapid rise of the futures price and pay attention to risk control [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2,557 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 192 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread of methanol is 99 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 101 yuan/ton. - The position of the main methanol contract is 942,657 lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 162 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders of methanol is - 96,089 lots, with a week - on - week increase of 15,734 lots. - The number of methanol warehouse receipts is 8,931 lots, with no week - on - week change [3]. 现货市场 - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2,280 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 135 yuan/ton; the price in Inner Mongolia is 1,880 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 45 yuan/ton. - The spread between East China and Northwest is 400 yuan/ton, and the basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract is - 85 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 51 yuan/ton. - The CFR price of methanol at the main Chinese port is 280 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 21 US dollars/ton; the CFR price in Southeast Asia is 325 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 3 US dollars/ton. - The FOB price in Rotterdam is 300 euros/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 11 euros/ton; the spread between the main Chinese port and Southeast Asia is - 45 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 18 US dollars/ton [3]. Upstream Situation The price of NYMEX natural gas is 2.98 US dollars/million British thermal units, with a week - on - week increase of 0.12 US dollars [3]. Industry Situation - The inventory in East China ports is 1.0442 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 500 tons; the inventory in South China ports is 402,500 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 15,000 tons. - The methanol import profit is - 32.41 yuan/ton. The monthly import volume is 1.734 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 316,400 tons. - The inventory of inland enterprises is 535,300 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 195,000 tons. The methanol enterprise operating rate is 92.8%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.73 percentage points [3]. Downstream Situation - The formaldehyde operating rate is 14.7%, with a week - on - week increase of 2.65 percentage points; the dimethyl ether operating rate is 3.33%, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.06 percentage points. - The acetic acid operating rate is 84.11%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.49 percentage points; the MTBE operating rate is 67.22%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.65 percentage points. - The olefin operating rate is 84.08%, with no week - on - week change. The methanol - to - olefin on - paper profit is - 1,248 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 351 yuan/ton [3]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 41.17%, with a week - on - week increase of 12.21 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of methanol is 32.81%, with a week - on - week increase of 7.16 percentage points. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for methanol is 37.05%, with a week - on - week increase of 13.67 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for methanol is 37.08%, with a week - on - week increase of 13.7 percentage points [3]. Industry News - As of February 25, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 535,300 tons, an increase of 195,000 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week increase of 57.32%. The order backlog of sample enterprises was 205,800 tons, a decrease of 109,300 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 34.69%. - As of February 25, the total methanol port inventory in China was 1.4467 million tons, an increase of 14,500 tons from the previous data. Among them, the inventory in East China decreased slightly by 500 tons, and the inventory in South China increased by 15,000 tons. The methanol port inventory has accumulated slightly compared to before the Spring Festival. Although the unloading speed of foreign vessels during the period was average, the restricted提货 during the holiday also affected consumption. - As of February 26, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefin devices was 85.32%, a week - on - week increase of 1.86%. Recently, the operation of domestic MTO enterprise devices has been stable, and there has been no significant change in the operating rate. The domestic methanol production has increased as the production capacity loss caused by recent maintenance and production reduction is less than the output of the restored production capacity. In terms of supply and demand, domestic gas - based MTO devices have gradually resumed and reached a high load before the Spring Festival, resulting in an increase in the overall market supply. Both ports and inland areas have seen inventory accumulation last week [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - As of February 12, the domestic methanol-to-olefin plant capacity utilization rate was 85.16%, a week-on-week increase of 1.34%. There was no adjustment in plant operation during the week, and the average weekly start-up increased after the previous restart of the plant [3]. - The overall supply in the market increased as domestic gas-based plants gradually resumed and reached a high load before the Spring Festival. It was expected that both ports and the inland would accumulate inventory during the holiday. Currently, the load of MTO plants in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was not high, with a recovery expectation after the Spring Festival. The ports would enter the destocking stage, but the terminal demand was difficult to recover quickly, and the overall rigid demand was weak. Attention should be paid to the restart time of two MTO plants in East China [3]. - Due to the great uncertainty in the Middle East situation, it might affect the normal production of Iranian methanol in the future. Although inland enterprises transferred part of the inventory pressure through pre-sales before the festival, the downstream digestion was slow, and the post-festival procurement demand was still weak. Attention should also be paid to the inland spring maintenance and the destocking after the post-festival demand recovery. The MA2605 contract was expected to fluctuate in the range of 2240 - 2300 in the short term [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract was 2285 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 97 yuan/ton. The 5 - 9 spread of methanol was -19 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 13 yuan/ton [3]. - The position volume of the main methanol contract was 745,441 lots, with a week-on-week increase of 8,040 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders was -79,256 lots, with a week-on-week increase of 57,961 lots [3]. - The number of methanol warrants was 9,994, with no week-on-week change [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang was 2,220 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 20 yuan/ton. The price in Inner Mongolia was 1,850 yuan/ton, with no week-on-week change [3]. - The price difference between East China and Northwest China was 370 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 15 yuan/ton. The basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract was -65 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week decrease of 77 yuan/ton [3]. - The CFR price of methanol at the main Chinese port was 264 US dollars/ton, with no week-on-week change. The CFR price in Southeast Asia was 322 US dollars/ton, with no week-on-week change [3]. - The FOB price in Rotterdam was 300 euros/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 1 euro/ton. The price difference between the main Chinese port and Southeast Asia was -58 US dollars/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 5 US dollars/ton [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas was 2.98 US dollars/million British thermal units, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.09 US dollars [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The inventory at East China ports was 1.0447 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 36,600 tons. The inventory at South China ports was 387,500 tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 15,400 tons [3]. - The methanol import profit was 10 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week decrease of 2.5 yuan/ton. The monthly import volume was 1.734 million tons, with a month-on-month increase of 316,400 tons [3]. - The inventory of inland enterprises was 340,300 tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 28,000 tons. The methanol enterprise start-up rate was 92.07%, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.19% [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The formaldehyde start-up rate was 18.51%, with a week-on-week decrease of 11.53%. The dimethyl ether start-up rate was 5.38%, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.54% [3]. - The acetic acid start-up rate was 80.09%, with a week-on-week decrease of 1.63%. The MTBE start-up rate was 67.87%, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.14% [3]. - The olefin start-up rate was 84.08%, with a week-on-week increase of 1.34%. The methanol-to-olefin on - paper profit was -909 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week decrease of 113 yuan/ton [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol was 28.46%, with a week-on-week increase of 4.7%. The 40 - day historical volatility of methanol was 24.81%, with a week-on-week increase of 2.8% [3]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for methanol was 24.9%, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.18%. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options for methanol was 24.9%, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.18% [3]. 3.7 Industry News - As of February 11, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 340,300 tons, a decrease of 28,000 tons from the previous period, a week-on-week decrease of 7.61%. The orders to be delivered by sample enterprises were 315,000 tons, an increase of 28,000 tons from the previous period, a week-on-week increase of 9.75%. Most Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia methanol enterprises had a good inventory - clearing and pre - selling rhythm before the festival, and currently most enterprises continued to have no inventory and a situation of queuing for loading [3]. - As of February 11, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 1.4322 million tons, an increase of 21,200 tons from the previous data. Among them, the inventory in East China increased by 36,600 tons, and the inventory in South China decreased by 15,400 tons. The methanol port inventory increased slightly this week, and 198,100 tons of explicit foreign vessel unloading was recorded during the period [3]. - The possibility of a reduction in Iranian methanol due to geopolitical conflicts had increased again. The instability in the Middle East situation provided support for market sentiment. If the US - Iran conflict escalated, it would drive up the cost of crude oil and methanol [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint of the Report - The MA2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2200 - 2300 in the short - term. The domestic methanol production has increased, the inventory of mainland enterprises has continued to decline, the port inventory has shown a trend of regional differentiation, and the domestic methanol - to - olefins operating rate is expected to continue to rise [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2241 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread of methanol is - 29 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest is 807,371 lots, down 24,275 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 135,647 lots, up 10,751 lots. The number of warehouse receipts is 7082 [2]. Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2210 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price in Inner Mongolia is 1850 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan/ton. The price difference between East China and Northwest is 360 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton; the basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract is - 31 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. The CFR price of methanol at the main Chinese port is 264 US dollars/ton, up 2 US dollars/ton; the CFR price in Southeast Asia is 323 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The FOB price in Rotterdam is 298 euros/ton, up 1 euro/ton; the price difference between the main Chinese port and Southeast Asia is - 59 US dollars/ton, up 2 US dollars/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas is 3.14 US dollars/million British thermal units, down 0.26 US dollars [2]. Industry Situation - The inventory at East China ports is 100.81 tons, down 6.48 tons; the inventory at South China ports is 40.29 tons, up 0.37 tons. The import profit of methanol is - 27.36 yuan/ton, down 10.95 yuan/ton; the monthly import volume is 173.4 tons, up 31.64 tons. The inventory of mainland enterprises is 368,300 tons, down 55,800 tons; the operating rate of methanol enterprises is 92.26%, up 1.05% [2]. Downstream Situation - The operating rate of formaldehyde is 30.04%, down 3.28%; the operating rate of dimethyl ether is 5.92%, unchanged; the operating rate of acetic acid is 81.72%, down 0.55%; the operating rate of MTBE is 68.01%, unchanged; the operating rate of olefins is 82.74%, up 1.87%. The on - paper profit of methanol - to - olefins is - 835 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan/ton [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 23.99%, up 0.03%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 22.22%, up 0.03%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for methanol is 23.94%, down 0.39%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 23.94%, down 0.4% [2]. Industry News - As of February 4, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 36.83 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.58 tons or 13.16%; the orders to be delivered by sample enterprises were 28.71 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.14 tons or 8.05%. The total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 141.10 tons, a decrease of 6.11 tons from the previous period. The inventory in East China decreased by 6.48 tons, while the inventory in South China increased by 0.37 tons. The domestic methanol - to - olefins capacity utilization rate was 83.82%, a week - on - week increase of 1.86% [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term outlook for the methanol market is that the MA2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2220 - 2300 yuan/ton. The domestic methanol production has increased as the loss of production capacity due to maintenance and production cuts is less than the output from restored production. The inventory of inland enterprises continues to decline, and the port inventory shows a mixed trend with de - stocking in the East China region and inventory accumulation in the South China region. In the short term, the port methanol inventory may accumulate, and the domestic methanol - to - olefins operating rate is expected to continue to rise [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2225 yuan/ton, down 54 yuan/ton compared to the previous period. The 5 - 9 spread of methanol is - 47 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest is 858,053 lots, an increase of 36,109 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 166,599 lots. The number of warehouse receipts is 7,082, unchanged from the previous period [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2230 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton. The price in Inner Mongolia is 1797.5 yuan/ton, up 12.5 yuan/ton. The price difference between East China and Northwest China is 432.5 yuan/ton, down 2.5 yuan/ton. The basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract is - 49 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan/ton. The CFR price at the main Chinese port is 265 US dollars/ton, up 1 US dollar/ton. The CFR price in Southeast Asia is 323 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The FOB price in Rotterdam is 298 euros/ton, unchanged. The price difference between the main Chinese port and Southeast Asia is - 58 US dollars/ton, up 1 US dollar/ton [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas is 3.46 US dollars/million British thermal units, up 0.08 US dollars/million British thermal units [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The inventory at East China ports is 100.81 tons, down 6.48 tons. The inventory at South China ports is 40.29 tons, up 0.37 tons. The import profit of methanol is 4.36 yuan/ton, up 19.86 yuan/ton. The monthly import volume is 173.4 tons, an increase of 31.64 tons. The inventory of inland enterprises is 368,300 tons, down 55,800 tons. The operating rate of methanol enterprises is 91.21%, up 1.29 percentage points [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of formaldehyde is 33.32%, down 1.19 percentage points. The operating rate of dimethyl ether is 5.92%, up 0.67 percentage points. The operating rate of acetic acid is 82.27%, up 1.6 percentage points. The operating rate of MTBE is 68.01%, unchanged. The operating rate of olefins is 80.87%, down 3.42 percentage points. The on - paper profit of methanol - to - olefins is - 799 yuan/ton, up 37 yuan/ton [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 24.73%, up 0.87 percentage points. The 40 - day historical volatility of methanol is 22.2%, up 0.51 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for methanol is 24.24%, up 0.55 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options for methanol is 24.25%, up 0.56 percentage points [3]. 3.7 Industry News - As of February 4, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is 36.83 tons, down 5.58 tons or 13.16% from the previous period. The orders to be delivered by sample enterprises are 28.71 tons, up 2.14 tons or 8.05% from the previous period. The total inventory of Chinese methanol ports is 141.10 tons, down 6.11 tons from the previous data. The domestic capacity utilization rate of methanol - to - olefins plants is 83.82%, up 1.86% [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - Recently, the production loss of domestic methanol due to maintenance and production cuts is less than the output of restored production capacity, leading to an overall increase in production [2] - As the long holiday approaches, upstream factories continue the inventory - clearing/pre - selling strategy, and downstream enterprises make stable pre - holiday purchases. As a result, inland enterprise inventories continue to decline [2] - This week, methanol inventories at ports decreased. The terminal rigid demand in the Yangtze River Delta region remained stable, the提货 volume from mainstream social warehouses was average, and the inventory decreased due to reduced unloading. The inventory at South China ports increased [2] - The short - term expected arrival volume of foreign vessels is likely to increase month - on - month. As the Spring Festival approaches, the提货 volume may decline, and port methanol inventories may accumulate. The extent of inventory accumulation depends on the unloading speed of foreign vessels and changes in the提货 volume [2] - Last week, the domestic methanol - to - olefins operating rate decreased. After the restart of the Ningbo Fude plant, the weekly average operating rate still declined. With the increase in the load of the Ningbo Fude MTO plant, the short - term operating rate of the MTO industry is expected to rise slightly [2] - The MA2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2230 - 2300 in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2279 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 32 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread of methanol is - 36 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 4 yuan/ton [2] - The open interest of the main methanol contract is 821,944 lots, an increase of 4,909 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 113,524 lots, an increase of 26,838 lots [2] - The number of methanol warehouse receipts is 7,082, with no month - on - month change [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2230 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton; the price in Inner Mongolia is 1785 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton [2] - The price spread between East China and Northwest China is 435 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton; the basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract is - 49 yuan/ton, a decrease of 22 yuan/ton [2] - The CFR price of methanol at China's main ports is 264 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 1 US dollar/ton; the CFR price in Southeast Asia is 323 US dollars/ton, with no month - on - month change [2] - The FOB price in Rotterdam is 298 euros/ton, with no month - on - month change; the price spread between China's main ports and Southeast Asia is - 59 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 1 US dollar/ton [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas is 3.38 US dollars/million British thermal units, an increase of 0.12 US dollars/million British thermal units [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The inventory at East China ports is 107.29 tons, an increase of 4.76 tons; the inventory at South China ports is 39.92 tons, a decrease of 3.3 tons [2] - The import profit of methanol is - 15.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.04 yuan/ton; the monthly import volume is 173.4 tons, an increase of 31.64 tons [2] - The inventory of inland enterprises is 424,100 tons, a decrease of 14,200 tons; the operating rate of methanol enterprises is 91.21%, an increase of 1.29 percentage points [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of formaldehyde is 33.32%, a decrease of 1.19 percentage points; the operating rate of dimethyl ether is 5.92%, an increase of 0.67 percentage points [2] - The operating rate of acetic acid is 82.27%, an increase of 1.6 percentage points; the operating rate of MTBE is 68.01%, with no month - on - month change [2] - The operating rate of olefins is 80.87%, a decrease of 3.42 percentage points; the on - paper profit of methanol - to - olefins is - 836 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton [2] 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 23.61%, a decrease of 3.16 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of methanol is 21.44%, a decrease of 0.47 percentage points [2] - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for methanol is 23.69%, a decrease of 1.1 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for methanol is 23.69%, a decrease of 1.08 percentage points [2] 3.7 Industry News - As of February 4, the inventory of China's methanol sample production enterprises was 36.83 tons, a decrease of 5.58 tons from the previous period, with a month - on - month decrease of 13.16%; the pending orders of sample enterprises were 28.71 tons, an increase of 2.14 tons from the previous period, with a month - on - month increase of 8.05% [2] - As of February 4, the total inventory of methanol at Chinese ports was 141.10 tons, a decrease of 6.11 tons from the previous data. Among them, the inventory in East China decreased by 6.48 tons, and the inventory in South China increased by 0.37 tons [2] - As of January 29, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefins plants was 81.95%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.2%. The MTO plants of Zhejiang Xingxing, Sierbang, and Shandong Hengtong continued to be shut down, and the Ningbo Fude plant restarted. After hedging, the weekly average operating rate still declined [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The port methanol inventory is expected to decline, and short - term attention should be paid to the unloading speed of foreign vessels and changes in the提货 volume. The domestic methanol - to - olefins operating rate decreased last week, but with the load increase of the Ningbo Fude MTO unit, the short - term MTO industry operating rate is expected to rise slightly. The MA2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2220 - 2300 in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see due to the significant impact of macro - sentiment on commodity prices [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2247 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread is - 32 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest is 817,035 lots, an increase of 3,725 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 140,362 lots, a decrease of 10,556 lots. The number of warehouse receipts is 7,082, a decrease of 21 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2220 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price in Inner Mongolia is 1790 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price difference between East China and Northwest is 430 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton; the basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract is - 27 yuan/ton. The CFR price at the main Chinese port is 265 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 4 US dollars/ton; the CFR price in Southeast Asia is 323 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The FOB price in Rotterdam is 298 euros/ton, unchanged; the price difference between the main Chinese port and Southeast Asia is - 58 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 4 US dollars/ton [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas is 3.26 US dollars/million British thermal units, a decrease of 1.16 US dollars [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The inventory at East China ports is 107.29 tons, an increase of 4.76 tons; the inventory at South China ports is 39.92 tons, a decrease of 3.3 tons. The methanol import profit is - 14.46 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.26 yuan/ton; the monthly import volume is 173.4 tons, an increase of 31.64 tons. The inventory of inland enterprises is 424,100 tons, a decrease of 14,200 tons; the operating rate of methanol enterprises is 91.21%, an increase of 1.29% [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of formaldehyde is 33.32%, a decrease of 1.19%; the operating rate of dimethyl ether is 5.92%, an increase of 0.67%. The operating rate of acetic acid is 82.27%, an increase of 1.6%; the operating rate of MTBE is 68.01%. The operating rate of olefins is 80.87%, a decrease of 3.42%; the methanol - to - olefins disk profit is - 811 yuan/ton, an increase of 31 yuan/ton [2] 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 23.61%, a decrease of 3.16%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 21.44%, a decrease of 0.47%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 24.79%, a decrease of 2.25%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 24.77%, a decrease of 2.26% [2] 3.7 Industry News - As of January 28, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 42.41 tons, a decrease of 1.42 tons from the previous period, a 3.24% decrease; the orders to be delivered by sample enterprises were 26.57 tons, an increase of 2.74 tons from the previous period, an 11.50% increase. As of January 28, the total inventory at Chinese methanol ports was 147.21 tons, an increase of 1.46 tons from the previous data. East China accumulated inventory, with an increase of 4.76 tons; South China reduced inventory, with a decrease of 3.3 tons. The domestic methanol production increased as the loss of production capacity due to maintenance and production cuts was less than the output of restored production capacity. As of January 29, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefins plants was 81.95%, a decrease of 3.2% [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoint - The port methanol inventory is expected to decline, with a focus on the unloading speed of foreign vessels and changes in提货量 in the short term. The domestic methanol - to - olefins开工率 is expected to decline. It is recommended to trade the MA2605 contract in the range of 2280 - 2380 [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2339 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 35 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread is - 21 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 4 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest is 824,556 lots, a decrease of 22,263 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 114,489 lots, an increase of 11,889 lots. The number of warehouse receipts is 7,595, a decrease of 100 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2285 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton; the price in Inner Mongolia is 1797.5 yuan/ton, down 7.5 yuan/ton. The price difference between East China and Northwest China is 467.5 yuan/ton, down 22.5 yuan/ton. The basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract is - 54 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton. The CFR price at the main Chinese port is 268 US dollars/ton, down 4 US dollars/ton; the CFR price in Southeast Asia is 322 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The FOB price in Rotterdam is 279 euros/ton, up 9 euros/ton. The price difference between the main Chinese port and Southeast Asia is - 54 US dollars/ton, down 4 US dollars/ton [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas is 6.49 US dollars/million British thermal units, down 0.03 US dollars [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The inventory at East China ports is 102.53 tons, a decrease of 1.36 tons; the inventory at South China ports is 43.22 tons, an increase of 3.58 tons. The methanol import profit is - 15.78 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.41 yuan/ton. The monthly import volume is 173.4 tons, an increase of 31.64 tons. The inventory of inland enterprises is 424,100 tons, a decrease of 14,200 tons. The methanol enterprise operating rate is 89.92%, a decrease of 1.19 percentage points [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The formaldehyde operating rate is 34.51%, an increase of 0.28 percentage points; the dimethyl ether operating rate is 5.25%, an increase of 1.51 percentage points; the acetic acid operating rate is 80.67%, an increase of 2.27 percentage points; the MTBE operating rate is 68.01%, an increase of 0.44 percentage points; the olefin operating rate is 84.29%, a decrease of 1.48 percentage points. The methanol - to - olefins on - paper profit is - 1039 yuan/ton, a decrease of 36 yuan/ton [2] 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 24.97%, an increase of 0.32 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility is 20.26%, an increase of 0.28 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 25.08%, a decrease of 2.69 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 25.08%, a decrease of 2.7 percentage points [2] 3.7 Industry News - As of January 28, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is 42.41 tons, a decrease of 1.42 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 3.24%; the pending orders of sample enterprises are 26.57 tons, an increase of 2.74 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week increase of 11.50%. The total inventory at Chinese methanol ports is 147.21 tons, an increase of 1.46 tons from the previous data. The inventory in East China has increased by 4.76 tons, and the inventory in South China has decreased by 3.3 tons. The domestic methanol production has decreased due to more capacity losses from maintenance and production cuts than capacity output from recovery. As of January 22, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefins plants is 85.15%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.78%. The MTO plant of Zhejiang Xingxing continues to be shut down, and the load of some enterprises continues to decrease [2]

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term domestic methanol production has decreased as the loss of capacity due to maintenance and production cuts is more than the output of restored capacity. The inventory of inland enterprises decreased slightly last week, while the port inventory increased slightly. The MTO industry's average weekly operating rate continued to decline last week, and there is an expected decline in the domestic methanol - to - olefins operating rate. The MA2605 contract is recommended to be traded in the range of 2250 - 2350 yuan/ton in the short term [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2304 yuan/ton, a decrease of 43 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread is - 25 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest is 846,819 lots, a decrease of 8,731 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 126,378 lots, a decrease of 3,535 lots. The number of warehouse receipts is 7,695, unchanged [2]. 3.2现货市场 - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2265 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton; the price in Inner Mongolia is 1805 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton. The price difference between East China and Northwest China is 490 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton; the basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract is - 39 yuan/ton. The CFR price at China's main port is 272 US dollars/ton, an increase of 5 US dollars/ton; the CFR price in Southeast Asia is 322 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The FOB price in Rotterdam is 270 euros/ton, an increase of 1 euro/ton; the price difference between China's main port and Southeast Asia is - 50 US dollars/ton, an increase of 5 US dollars/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas is 6.52 US dollars/million British thermal units, an increase of 1.17 US dollars/million British thermal units [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The inventory at East China ports is 102.53 tons, a decrease of 1.36 tons; the inventory at South China ports is 43.22 tons, an increase of 3.58 tons. The methanol import profit is - 13.37 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.92 yuan/ton; the monthly import volume is 173.4 tons, an increase of 31.64 tons. The inventory of inland enterprises is 438,300 tons, a decrease of 12,600 tons; the operating rate of methanol enterprises is 89.92%, a decrease of 1.19% [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of formaldehyde is 34.51%, an increase of 0.28%; the operating rate of dimethyl ether is 5.25%, an increase of 1.51%; the operating rate of acetic acid is 80.67%, an increase of 2.27%; the operating rate of MTBE is 68.01%, an increase of 0.44%; the operating rate of olefins is 84.29%, a decrease of 1.48%. The methanol - to - olefins disk profit is - 1003 yuan/ton, an increase of 101 yuan/ton [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 23.35%, an increase of 0.71%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 19.37%, an increase of 0.66%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for methanol is 27.77%, an increase of 2.89%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 27.78%, an increase of 2.88% [2]. 3.7 Industry News - As of January 21, the inventory of China's sample methanol production enterprises was 43.83 tons, a decrease of 1.25 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 2.78%; the pending orders of sample enterprises were 23.83 tons, a slight increase of 0.05 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 0.21%. As of January 21, the total inventory of China's methanol ports was 145.75 tons, an increase of 2.22 tons from the previous data. The inventory in East China decreased by 1.36 tons, while the inventory in South China increased by 3.58 tons. As of January 22, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefins plants was 85.15%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.78% [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The MTO industry's weekly average operating rate continued to decline last week, and there is an expectation that the domestic methanol - to - olefins operating rate will still decrease. The MA2605 contract should pay short - term attention to the pressure around 2350, avoid chasing up rashly, and it is recommended to wait and see for the time being [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2347 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 49 yuan/ton. The 5 - 9 spread of methanol is - 13 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 8 yuan/ton [2] - The position of the main methanol contract is 855,550 lots, with a week - on - week increase of 48,556 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures is - 122,843 lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 19,632 lots [2] - The number of methanol warehouse receipts is 7,695, with a week - on - week decrease of 50 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2295 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 50 yuan/ton; the price in Inner Mongolia is 1795 yuan/ton, with no change [2] - The price difference between East China and Northwest China is 450 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 20 yuan/ton. The basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract is - 52 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 1 yuan/ton [2] - The CFR price of methanol in the main Chinese port is 267 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 3 US dollars/ton; the CFR price in Southeast Asia is 322 US dollars/ton, with no change [2] - The FOB price in Rotterdam is 269 euros/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 1 euro/ton. The price difference between the main Chinese port and Southeast Asia is - 55 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 3 US dollars/ton [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas is 5.35 US dollars/million British thermal units, with a week - on - week increase of 0.49 US dollars/million British thermal units [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The inventory in East China ports is 102.53 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.36 tons; the inventory in South China ports is 43.22 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 3.58 tons [2] - The import profit of methanol is - 12.45 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 3.14 yuan/ton. The monthly import volume is 173.4 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 31.64 tons [2] - The inventory of inland enterprises is 438,300 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 12,600 tons. The operating rate of methanol enterprises is 89.92%, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.19% [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of formaldehyde is 34.51%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.28%; the operating rate of dimethyl ether is 5.25%, with a week - on - week increase of 1.51% [2] - The operating rate of acetic acid is 80.67%, with a week - on - week increase of 2.27%; the operating rate of MTBE is 68.01%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.44% [2] - The operating rate of olefins is 84.29%, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.48%. The on - paper profit of methanol - to - olefins is - 1104 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 66 yuan/ton [2] 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 22.64%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.52%; the 40 - day historical volatility of methanol is 18.71%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.39% [2] - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for methanol is 24.88%, with a week - on - week increase of 2.63%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for methanol is 24.9%, with a week - on - week increase of 2.64% [2] 3.7 Industry News - As of January 21, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 43.83 tons, a decrease of 1.25 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 2.78%; the pending orders of sample enterprises were 23.83 tons, a slight increase of 0.05 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week increase of 0.21% [2] - As of January 21, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 145.75 tons, an increase of 2.22 tons from the previous data. The inventory in East China decreased by 1.36 tons, while the inventory in South China increased by 3.58 tons. There was a slight accumulation of methanol port inventory this week, with 19.80 tons of obvious foreign vessel unloading during the period, and there were still two vessels being unloaded that were not included [2] - As of January 22, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefins plants was 85.15%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.78%. The MTO plant of Zhejiang Xingxing continued to be shut down, and the load of individual enterprises continued to decrease [2]