明年是"十五五"开局之年，面对外部环境变化影响加深，和国内经济发展中的老问题、新挑战，中央经 济工作会议将坚持内需主导作为重点任务之一，并明确提出推动投资止跌回稳。稳投资将成为稳增长的 重要抓手。 项目是投资的载体。中央《关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》（简称《建议》） 明确，要高质量推进国家重大战略实施和重点领域安全能力项目建设，适应人口结构变化和流动趋势， 完善基础设施和公共服务设施布局，加强人力资源开发和人的全面发展投资，体现出投资于物和投资于 人紧密结合的导向。 今年下半年以来，固定资产投资增速出现回落，1~11月份同比下降2.6%。这既受地方政府化债、房地 产调整等当期因素影响，也折射出经济发展过程中新旧动能转换的阶段性特征。 不过，从长期视角来看，有效投资仍然具备广阔空间。我国人均资本存量仍低于发达经济体，水利、能 源、市政以及新型基础设施等领域仍存短板；统筹推进新型城镇化和乡村全面振兴，实现投资于物和投 资于人紧密结合，基础设施和公共服务投入力度还需加大；关键核心技术领域补短板、新兴产业和未来 产业快速发展，也都会产生源源不断的投资需求。 因此，推动投资止跌回稳，应兼顾"必要" ...

11月经济呈现出 "工业稳、投资与消费缓" 的格局。鉴于政策效果将在明年一季度更为充分显现，当前消费与投资仍面临阶段性逆风，"谁先企 稳"对明年经济"开门红"具有关键的信号意义。对此，我们认为可以从如下角度考虑： 投资端："乌云中的银线"。虽然房地产下行压力仍在释放，但基建与制造业已不时释放积极信号：11月制造业投资增速止跌回升，初步显现"拐 点"；建筑业PMI表现偏强，叠加新增专项债加速发力项目建设，表明"稳投资"的政策储备与执行已在跟进。 消费端：增速放缓背后的复杂局面。除高基数效应外，前期"国补"政策的火热、"双十一"促销前置，均在一定程度上透支了部分消费力，对短期 消费增速形成压制。长远来看，消费复苏仍需依赖消费场景实质性拓展以及居民收入预期改善。 尤其在中央经济工作会议"推动投资止跌回稳"的指引下，"稳投资"政策意图明确。投资有望先于消费实现企稳，成为支撑明年一季度"开门红"的 主要亮点。后续关键仍在于政策"愿望清单"能否如期兑现、向实物工作量有效转化。 工业：同环比背离释放了哪些信号？与改善幅度明显强于季节性的环比增速不同，11月工业增加值同比增速却小幅放缓至4.8%（前值4.9%），两 者的背离 ...

在改革工作方面，会议表示，研究制定全国统一大市场建设条例，协同推进"准入、场景、要素"一体化 改革；持续抓好招商引资、招标投标等方面重点问题整治，坚决破除各类壁垒障碍；更大力度发展民营 经济，大力推动民营经济促进法配套制度建设。 围绕前述重点工作，会议还提出，完善重点行业产能治理和重大基础设施调控；优化实施消费品以旧换 新政策，积极扩大服务消费；稳步实施碳排放总量和强度双控制度，完善配套制度，强化评价考核，严 控新增"两高"项目等。(完) （文章来源：中国新闻网） 中新社北京12月13日电 (记者王恩博)据中国国家发改委13日消息，全国发展和改革工作会议12日至13日 在北京召开。会议部署2026年发展改革重点任务，其中提及，更大力度发展民营经济。 会议明确了九项明年发展改革重点工作，分别是：编制实施好"十五五"规划；多措并举促进投资止跌回 稳；提振消费要出实招出新招；综合整治"内卷式"竞争和培育发展新动能；进一步全面深化改革；深入 扩大高水平对外开放；以双碳为引领加快推进全面绿色转型；更大力度保障就业和改善民生；适应人口 形势变化优化公共资源配置。 其中，针对稳投资，会议提出，充分发挥"两重"建设(国家重大 ...

宏观经济 | 证券研究报告 — 总量点评 2025 年 12 月 12 日 2025 年中央经济工作会议 学习体会 "扩内需"的战略地位进一步提升 "扩内需"的战略地位进一步提升。 "惠民生"和"稳投资"有望共同发力。 财政、货币增量政策仍然值得期待。 着眼明年的发展任务，会议将"实施更加积极有为的宏观政策"放在了 会议公报相对靠前的位置，强调"增强政策前瞻性针对性协同性"，明 年宏观政策有望更加靠前发力。 会议增加了"扩大内需、优化供给"、"做优增量、盘活存量"等重要表 述，并在明年经济工作的重点任务中，将"坚持内需主导"放在了各项 发展任务之前，明年"扩内需"的战略地位进一步提升。"扩内需"是 应对当前"老问题、新挑战"的重要抓手，其能够有效对冲外部需求的 不确定性，加速消化国内"强"供给，带动企业盈利与居民收入修复， 进而进一步推动反哺有效需求。为更好的实现这一良性循环，2026 年宏 观政策有望"更加积极有为"的发力"扩内需"。 其一，为实现"十五五"良好开局，增量政策仍然值得期待。其二，盘 活"存量"资源，"因地制宜"的做好经济工作。以发展新质生产力为 例，2024 年中央经济工作会议强调要以科技创 ...

本报记者韩昱 中国商业经济学会副会长宋向清也认为，一方面，项目投资可直接拉动经济稳增长，成为年末经济"压 舱石"；另一方面，基建、产业类项目带动钢铁、机械、建材等上游供给，以及物流、运维等下游服 务，可以形成"投资—生产—营收"闭环，激活产业链协同效应。此外，重大项目建设中的基础设施项目 持续完善交通、能源等硬支撑，社会事业项目补齐公共服务短板，既可改善民生体验，又为后续产业落 地、经济升级奠定基础。 在密集开工的同时，地方重大项目建设进展也较为积极。例如，广东省发展和改革委员会11月28日发布 的数据显示，2025年广东省安排省重点建设项目1500个，年度计划投资1万亿元。1月份至10月份，省重 点项目完成投资9598亿元，为年度计划投资的96.0%。深圳宝安国际机场T2航站区及配套设施工程等 158个项目开工建设，广州增城至佛山高速公路（增城至天河段）、广州至湛江铁路等在建项目推进顺 利。 确保重大项目建设持续跑出"加速度"，后续地方还可从哪些方面发力？朱华雷表示，各地政策可围 绕"要素保障、审批提效、资金赋能、环境优化、机制护航"五大核心精准发力，通过政策组合拳，有效 提升重大项目开工率、投资完成率和竣 ...

Economic Performance Overview - In October, the industrial added value increased by 4.9% year-on-year and 0.17% month-on-month[1] - The total retail sales of consumer goods reached 46,291 billion yuan, growing by 2.9% year-on-year and 0.16% month-on-month[1] - From January to October, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) totaled 408,914 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year decline of 1.7%[1] Investment and Consumption Trends - Historical data suggests that investment growth typically rebounds first during economic stabilization periods, as seen in 2008-09 and 2020-21[2] - Manufacturing investment saw a significant decline, with a year-on-year drop from -1.9% in September to -6.7% in October[3] - Infrastructure investment growth decreased from -4.6% in September to -8.9% in October, indicating a low level of infrastructure activity[3] Consumer Behavior Insights - The retail sales growth rate slightly declined to 2.9% in October, influenced by a high base from the previous year and the waning effects of the "old-for-new" policy[4] - The early "Double Eleven" shopping festival helped mitigate the decline in retail sales growth, which did not significantly worsen despite multiple pressures[4] Real Estate Market Dynamics - From January to October, real estate investment cumulative growth fell to -14.7%, down from -13.9% previously, reflecting weak demand and high base effects from last year[5] - The need for further policy support in the real estate sector is emphasized to balance supply and demand and promote high-quality development[5] Risk Factors - Potential risks include policies falling short of expectations, unexpected changes in the domestic economic situation, and fluctuations in exports[6]

Core Viewpoint - The current market environment, characterized by volatility and rapid shifts in investment hotspots, necessitates a focus on long-term stability rather than chasing fleeting trends [1] Group 1: Investment Philosophy - The essence of investing in public funds is to achieve asset preservation and appreciation in the equity market, with a focus on smooth and steady returns [2] - A good investment experience is defined by minimizing significant and prolonged losses while allowing investors to hold their positions without the stress of timing the market [2] Group 2: Strategic Approach - The investment strategy is based on macroeconomic analysis, identifying undervalued opportunities from cyclical turning points rather than engaging in short-term trading [3] - The manager emphasizes the importance of asset turnover and trading volume to assess market sentiment and identify potential investment opportunities [3] Group 3: Dynamic Adjustment - The investment approach involves flexible adjustments to the portfolio in response to market style changes, reducing exposure to overvalued assets while increasing weight in undervalued ones [4] - The manager's patience in waiting for the right market conditions, as seen in the strategic positioning in brokerage stocks, highlights the importance of maintaining a balanced portfolio [5] Group 4: Market Context - The recent fluctuations in the Shanghai Composite Index, which briefly surpassed 4000 points before retreating, illustrate the structural characteristics of the current market [6] - The focus on stability is crucial in a volatile market, with the aim of achieving lower overall drawdowns compared to the market average [6]

Core Viewpoint - The current market environment emphasizes the need for stability in investment strategies, particularly as the Shanghai Composite Index approaches the 4000-point mark and experiences volatility [1][9]. Investor Experience - The essence of purchasing mutual funds is to achieve asset preservation and appreciation in the equity market, with a focus on smooth and steady returns while avoiding significant losses [3][9]. - A good investment experience is defined by two standards: minimizing large and prolonged losses, and alleviating the stress of market timing for investors [3][9]. Investment Strategy - The investment philosophy is based on macroeconomic research, focusing on identifying undervalued opportunities from cyclical turning points rather than chasing short-term trends [5][9]. - The manager has increased allocations in public utilities and transportation sectors in anticipation of counter-cyclical policies, while also monitoring "white horse stocks" that are closely tied to China's economic performance and interest rates [5][9]. Dynamic Adjustment - The investment approach involves flexible adjustments to the portfolio in response to market style changes, reducing exposure to high-volatility assets while increasing weight in undervalued assets with reversal potential [7][9]. - The manager's patience in waiting for market opportunities, such as in the brokerage sector, reflects a strategy of maintaining a balanced portfolio to withstand short-term pressures [7][9]. Long-term Perspective - Emphasizing the importance of time in investment management, the strategy focuses on managing risk from a volatility perspective rather than fixating on individual stock performance [8][9]. - The overall goal is to stabilize the portfolio's foundation to navigate through market fluctuations, allowing for a more secure investment journey for clients [9].

Core Viewpoint - The concept of "stability" in investment is often misunderstood as conservatism, but it is actually about active management aimed at optimizing the holding experience and ensuring long-term investment success [1][2]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The Shanghai Composite Index successfully broke through the 4000-point mark on October 28, marking the first time since August 18, 2015, but experienced slight fluctuations on the same day [3]. - The current market is characterized as a "structural market," with only 10% to 20% of stocks doubling in value since September 24 of last year, indicating significant differentiation and a lack of widespread profit-making [4]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - The investment strategy focuses on controlling portfolio volatility to achieve stability during market fluctuations, with the current portfolio positioned at a neutral level, resulting in a significantly lower overall drawdown compared to the market average [5]. - The investment framework emphasizes macroeconomic research to identify turning points and opportunities, with recent allocations to utilities and transportation sectors based on predictions of counter-cyclical adjustments and policy support [5][6]. Group 3: Portfolio Management - The essence of left-side trading is to buy when assets are overlooked, requiring patience and a balanced portfolio to mitigate risks while waiting for market adjustments [7]. - Dynamic balance in portfolio management is crucial, with adjustments made based on market conditions and asset performance, ensuring that the portfolio remains aligned with the investor's objectives [8]. Group 4: Investor Experience - The ultimate goal of a stable investment strategy is to enhance the investor's experience by avoiding significant or prolonged losses and maintaining a smooth upward trajectory in returns [9]. - The philosophy emphasizes that a positive investment experience is achieved when the time spent in profitable conditions outweighs the time in losses, reflecting a long-term view of stability's value [9].

Core Viewpoint - The concept of "stability" is undervalued in volatile markets, as articulated by Zhang Yonghe of Guotai Fund, emphasizing that it is not conservative but rather an active management strategy aimed at optimizing the investment experience and ensuring long-term stability [1][2]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The Shanghai Composite Index successfully broke the 4000-point barrier on October 28, marking the first time since August 18, 2015, but experienced slight fluctuations on the same day, indicating market volatility [4]. - The current market is characterized as a "structural market" rather than a typical bull market, with only 10% to 20% of stocks doubling in value since September 24, 2022, primarily in small-cap and AI-related sectors [5][6]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - The investment strategy focuses on controlling portfolio volatility to achieve stability during market fluctuations, with a neutral overall position that has resulted in significantly lower drawdowns compared to the market average [6][7]. - Zhang Yonghe emphasizes macroeconomic research as a core element of investment decisions, aiming to identify turning points and opportunities based on economic trends, corporate earnings, and liquidity conditions [7][8]. Group 3: Portfolio Management - The investment approach incorporates a strong contrarian mindset, suggesting that opportunities often arise when assets are overlooked by the market [9]. - The strategy involves dynamic portfolio management, adjusting asset allocations based on market conditions and the relative value of assets, ensuring a balance between different investment styles [10][13]. Group 4: Enhancing Investor Experience - The ultimate goal of a stable investment strategy is to enhance the investor's experience by minimizing significant or prolonged losses and maintaining a smooth upward trajectory in returns [15]. - Zhang Yonghe's philosophy aligns with the idea that a positive investment experience is paramount, allowing investors to feel secure in their equity market investments without the stress of timing the market [15].