Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the strong performance of the dividend index in recent years, its driving factors, and the potential for continued growth in the future [1][5][47]. Performance Overview - The dividend index has shown strong performance in recent years, with some dividend funds increasing in value by 50%-80% [8][47]. - From 2018 to 2021, the growth style bull market saw the growth style index rise over 150%, while the dividend index lagged behind [6]. - However, from 2022 to 2024, the dividend index has performed well, showing overall growth [7]. Sources of Returns - The four main sources of returns for dividend index funds are: 1. **Undervalued Buy-in and Valuation Improvement**: The dividend index has seen a significant increase in price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio from around 7-8 times in 2018 to approximately 9-10 times by May 2025 [18][19][22]. 2. **Profit Growth**: The underlying companies of the dividend index have shown stable profit growth, particularly from 2022 to 2024, which supports the index's performance [27]. 3. **Dividend Yield**: The current dividend yield has increased significantly compared to 5-10 years ago, with many stocks now yielding 5%-6% [30][34]. 4. **Rule Optimization**: The optimization of index rules has improved returns, with newer indices incorporating additional criteria for stock selection [39][44]. Historical Performance Metrics - The annualized return of the dividend index since the end of 2004 is 8.73%, which increases to 12.52% when accounting for dividends [13][14]. - The long-term growth rate of the dividend index is estimated at 8%-9%, with an additional annual dividend yield of 3%-4% [14]. Policy Impact - Recent policies have encouraged companies to increase dividend payouts, resulting in a rise in the number and amount of cash dividends distributed by A-share companies, reaching approximately 2.4 trillion in 2024 [33]. - The proportion of profits distributed as dividends has increased from 30%-40% to 40%-50% for some companies [34]. Conclusion - The combination of undervalued buy-in, profit growth, increased dividend yields, and optimized rules are expected to continue driving the long-term growth of the dividend index [47].

Group 1: Dividend Performance Analysis - Historically, the China Securities Dividend Index significantly underperformed in June and October since 2010, with excess return rates against the CSI 300 and the entire A-share market around 33%[16] - In June 2015 and 2018, dividends showed excess returns relative to the CSI 300 and the entire A-share market, benefiting from high volatility environments[8] - The Hong Kong Stock Connect High Dividend Index has consistently outperformed the CSI 300 Total Return Index and the Hong Kong Stock Connect Index, with monthly winning rates of 30% in January and October, which are the lowest for the year[27] Group 2: Seasonal Effects and Industry Performance - The months of March to May and August to December are favorable periods for the Hong Kong Stock Connect High Dividend Index to outperform the CSI 300 and the Hong Kong Stock Connect Index[28] - Most industries, except for consumer sectors like automobiles and home appliances, showed no excess returns in June and October since 2010, with utilities performing relatively better in June[22] - The banking and transportation sectors, along with high-weight industries like construction materials and real estate, experienced significant drawdowns in June[22] Group 3: Reasons for Seasonal Effects - The low winning rates for dividends in June and October are linked to the completion of annual and semi-annual reports, leading to a rise in market risk appetite post-reporting periods[30] - The phenomenon of "抢权行情" (right grabbing market) occurs around the ex-dividend dates, where stock prices may decline post-ex-dividend due to preemptive buying behavior[31] - The market's risk appetite tends to recover after the financial reporting periods, which negatively impacts the overall performance of dividend stocks[40]