Core Viewpoint - International gold prices have reached new highs, with prices surpassing $4000 on October 8, driving a strong upward trend in the precious metals market and leading to significant growth in domestic gold ETFs [1][2] Group 1: Gold Price and ETF Growth - The scale of domestic gold ETFs has rapidly expanded, with several products exceeding 10 billion yuan, including Huaan Gold ETF, which reached 68.263 billion yuan, an increase of 10.862 billion yuan in the last month [2] - The recent month saw significant inflows into gold ETFs, with notable increases in the scales of Guotai Gold ETF and Bosera Gold ETF by 2.954 billion yuan and 2.362 billion yuan respectively [2] - The inflow of funds into gold ETFs is heavily influenced by gold price trends, with a peak inflow of 18 billion yuan in a single week in April [2] Group 2: Stock Performance and Institutional Interest - The rise in gold prices has led to a strong performance in gold-related stocks, attracting significant attention from institutional investors [3] - Companies such as Shanjin International, Zhaojin Gold, and Hunan Gold have seen increased institutional interest, with Shanjin International's earnings meeting attracting over a hundred institutions [3] - The performance of gold industry ETFs, such as Yongying CSI Hong Kong and Shanghai Gold Industry Stocks ETF, has been impressive, with a year-to-date increase of 86.73% [3] Group 3: Market Outlook and Economic Indicators - Analysts predict that the current gold market is in the early stages of a "third wave" bull market, driven by expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and ongoing dollar credit cracks [5][6] - Historical data suggests that gold performs better during recessionary or stagflation periods, highlighting its value as a safe-haven asset [5] - The relationship between gold pricing and economic indicators has shifted, with gold increasingly being valued for its reserve value rather than its trading value since 2016 [6]

在黄金上涨的同时，机构对其的关注度也在不断升温。多家券商研报表示，看好后续黄金表现。比如西 部证券认为，黄金正在迎来"第三浪"，第一波涨幅是2016年起"全球贸易-美元结算"体系松动，黄金的 交易价值让位给储备价值；第二波涨幅是2022年起，美国将俄罗斯排除出SWIFT系统，损害美元信用； 第三波涨幅从今年9月18日美联储的非常规降息开始，进一步损害美联储独立性。该券商在研报中表 示，当前随着美元信用裂痕的持续扩张，金价将开启长期牛市。未来美联储独立性会持续受到损害，黄 金的储备价值将进一步彰显，目前处于第三波主升浪行情早期。永赢中证沪深港黄金产业股票ETF基金 经理刘庭宇也公开表示，在后续的降息方面，据CME"美联储观察"显示，美联储10月降息25个基点的 概率高达89.8%，维持利率不变的概率仅为10.2%。降息大周期下有利于黄金及黄金资产价格进一步走 高。（上证报） ...

近期，国际金价屡创新高，境内金价亦同步走强，贵金属市场整体呈现上行格局。 10月7日，纽约期金历史首次触及4000美元/盎司，创历史新高。在金价驱动下，境内黄金ETF规模迅速 扩张，多个产品突破百亿元大关。产业链相关上市公司股价亦大幅上涨，获得了机构投资者的高度关 注。多家黄金类上市公司被知名机构调研，代表性黄金股ETF的单月规模也增加逾50亿元。 机构分析指出，美联储降息预期与美元信用裂痕持续扩张，共同推动黄金进入新一轮上行周期。历史经 验显示，衰退或滞涨时期黄金表现往往优于其他资产。当前，市场普遍认为，黄金正处于"第三浪"主升 行情初期，长期储备价值和配置优势有望进一步凸显。 金价持续上涨，带动投资者回流 券商中国记者注意到，随着黄金价格不断上涨，黄金ETF的规模在近一个月内再次获得显著增长。 ETF方面，以永赢中证沪深港黄金产业股票ETF为例，该ETF今年以来涨幅达到86.73%，其重仓股包括 紫金矿业、山东黄金、中金黄金、赤峰黄金、招金矿业等，分别收涨99.07%、74.62%、87.21%、 90.70%和194.20%。受益于此，该ETF规模已增至116.69亿元，近一个月增长了54.17亿元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices have been rising significantly, reaching historical highs during the National Day holiday, with COMEX gold futures hitting $4000.1 per ounce and spot gold at $3958.71 per ounce, indicating strong market demand and investor interest in gold as a safe-haven asset [1][3]. Group 1: Gold Price Trends - As of October 7, 2023, the price of gold jewelry in China has also increased, with Chow Tai Fook's gold jewelry price rising to 1155 yuan per gram from 1129 yuan per gram, reflecting a 2.3% increase [1][2]. - The demand for investment gold has surged, with reports of gold bars selling out quickly at prices around 877 yuan per gram, while gold coins remain available [3]. Group 2: Market Drivers - The ongoing geopolitical tensions, including the U.S. government shutdown and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, are contributing to the rise in gold prices, as investors seek safe-haven assets amid uncertainty [3][4]. - Analysts from Western Securities suggest that the current expansion of dollar credit cracks may lead to a long-term bull market for gold, similar to historical patterns observed after the collapse of the Bretton Woods system [3][4]. Group 3: Central Bank and ETF Influence - Central banks are expected to continue increasing their gold reserves, with projections indicating an average purchase of 80 tons in 2025 and 70 tons in 2026, which is likely to support gold prices [1][4]. - The increase in ETF holdings is also identified as a key driver of gold demand, with a strong correlation to global interest rate cycles, suggesting that the current bull market may persist until new historical highs are reached [4]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the Federal Reserve's anticipated interest rate cuts will further support gold prices, as a weaker dollar may lead investors to increase their gold holdings as a hedge [5]. - The ongoing purchasing behavior of global central banks is expected to provide a solid foundation for gold prices, with potential for increased private investment to amplify price movements [5].

Employment Data - In July 2025, the U.S. added 73,000 non-farm jobs, significantly below the expected 104,000, marking a deviation of 1 standard deviation[3] - The previous month's job figure was revised down from 147,000 to 14,000, with a total downward revision of 258,000 jobs over the past two months, the largest since June 2020[3] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.248%, higher than the expected 4.2% and the previous 4.117%, the highest level since November 2021[3] Sector Analysis - The education and healthcare sectors have become the largest contributors to U.S. non-farm employment, with healthcare jobs up 13% compared to December 2019[3] - In July, the education and healthcare sector added 79,000 jobs according to non-farm data, while the ADP data showed a decrease of 38,000 jobs, indicating a divergence between the two reporting methods[3] - Other sectors, such as federal government and temporary assistance services, continue to see job losses, highlighting a weak employment growth in various industries[3] Data Revision Insights - The significant downward revision of previous non-farm data is attributed to a recalibration of seasonal adjustment factors by the BLS, rather than political motivations[3] - The feedback rates for May's non-farm data were 93.5% and 94.4%, yet the second revision still showed a decrease of 125,000 jobs, indicating potential issues in data collection and reporting[3] Market Implications - Short-term data fluctuations may increase asset price volatility, necessitating a focus on mid-term narratives such as the ongoing accommodative monetary policy and the challenges facing the U.S. dollar's credibility[2] - Risks include unexpected policy shifts from the Trump administration, excessive rate cuts by the Federal Reserve leading to inflationary pressures, and prolonged high interest rates causing liquidity crises in the financial system[2]