Group 1 - The necessity and feasibility of short-term interest rate cuts may increase due to the current internal and external environment, with weak real estate sales dragging down credit and inflation recovery [1][9] - Real estate policies have not led to significant improvements in housing transactions, with continued low consumer purchasing willingness and pressure from existing housing stock, indicating a need for interest rate cuts to stimulate sales [2][9] - Local government debt issuance rates have risen, leading to increased fiscal pressure, and the effectiveness of debt reduction measures may need to be strengthened, suggesting a potential need for short-term interest rate cuts [3][9] Group 2 - The recent appreciation of the RMB is attributed to a decline in the US dollar index and improved cross-border capital flows, providing a temporary window for interest rate cuts by the central bank [4][10] - Commercial banks are adjusting their liability structures to alleviate pressure on net interest margins, which have been under strain due to weak social demand and high competition for deposits [5][11] - The continuation of a loose monetary policy environment may improve the demand for long-term bonds, with expectations of a potential recovery in bond market performance by early 2026 [6][12]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the recent adjustment, the allocation value of bonds has started to emerge, and the attractiveness of 30 - year treasury bonds to allocation - type institutions has increased. The market will focus on key events such as the Central Economic Work Conference and the Political Bureau Meeting in December, which may provide new directional guidance. In the short - term, the pattern of a capped and floored bond market is difficult to break, and the yield of 10 - year bonds may remain in the range of 1.75% - 1.85%. If the expectation of interest rate cuts in early next year is strengthened, the bond market is expected to rise [8]. - In the medium - to - long - term, insufficient effective demand is the main challenge in China's economic development. In the new normal stage where the marginal benefits of land finance and debt - driven economic growth decline, the asset - liability tables of residents and enterprises are impacted, and new economic growth drivers are still being cultivated. With the potential impact of trade frictions in the Trump 2.0 era, total demand is unlikely to recover fundamentally in the short term, and deflation is likely to continue. Therefore, the fundamentals are still favorable for bond futures. The coordinated strengthening of monetary and fiscal policies, with monetary policy taking the lead, and a low - interest - rate environment are crucial for policy implementation, making it difficult for bond yields to rise significantly [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views - Last week, the performance of treasury bond futures across different maturities was divergent. Ultra - long - term treasury bond futures tumbled, while other maturities weakened slightly, and the long - term trend did not show an obvious inflection point. Negative factors such as the new regulations on public fund sales, year - end policy expectations, central bank bond - buying scale, and regulatory investigations led to concentrated profit - taking and early liquidation, increasing market volatility, especially in the more speculative maturities. The main institutional holders of ultra - long - term treasury bonds had insufficient buying willingness or limited capabilities. On Friday, ultra - long - term bonds stabilized slightly but had weak rebound momentum [4]. - The table shows the closing price, weekly change rate, weekly trading volume, change in weekly trading volume, weekly open interest, and change in weekly open interest of various treasury bond futures contracts [5]. 3.2 Liquidity Tracking - The report presents data on open - market operations (quantity and price), medium - term lending facility (quantity and price), reverse repurchase rate, and various interest rates such as deposit - type pledged repurchase, SHIBOR, and bond - pledged repurchase rates, as well as data on MLF maturity volume, policy rates, and market rates, and also shows the trends of treasury bond yields, treasury bond term spreads, US treasury bond yields, and US treasury bond term spreads [10][12][18][29][34][37] 3.3 Treasury Bond Futures Arbitrage Indicator Tracking - The report provides data on treasury bond futures basis, net basis, implied repo rate (IRR), and implied interest rates for 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures contracts [44][52][59][65]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - In December, copper prices are expected to remain high and fluctuate. It is recommended to maintain the operation strategy of buying on dips. The upward drive for copper prices comes from the increasing expectation of interest rate cuts in December and the long - term broad - money cycle, while the supply - side problems such as low copper concentrate processing fees and production disruptions, and the demand from the new energy sector support the copper price. However, factors like high inventory, the substitution of aluminum for copper, and weak demand in the real estate and home appliance sectors may limit the upside space [6][7]. Summary of Each Section According to the Table of Contents 1.后市研判 (Outlook for the Market) - In December, copper prices will be in a high - level oscillation. The operation strategy of buying on dips should be maintained. The increasing expectation of interest rate cuts in December and the long - term broad - money cycle provide upward drive. On the supply side, problems such as the decline in global copper ore grade, slow new project commissioning, and insufficient capital expenditure are difficult to solve in the short term, and production disruptions in major producing areas lead to lower - than - expected annual production growth. The demand from the automotive and new energy sectors provides support, but high inventory and the substitution of aluminum for copper may limit the upside [6][7]. 2.行情回顾 (Market Review) - In November, copper prices showed a high - level oscillation trend. The implementation of the Fed's interest rate cut and the US government shutdown event weakened the macro - driving force [9][10]. 3.宏观面 (Macroeconomic Aspects) - **US Situation**: The US manufacturing PMI has contracted for eight consecutive months, and the overall labor demand is slowing down. However, the service PMI has reached an eight - month high. Although the performance and outlook of NVIDIA are excellent, the market doubts about its valuation bubble. The dovish shift of the previous hawkish officials has increased the expectation of interest rate cuts in December to 75%, and the market has priced in more than three interest rate cuts within a year, which provides upward drive for copper prices [16]. - **China Situation**: In October, China's manufacturing PMI declined, and the non - manufacturing PMI rose slightly. The overall national economy was running smoothly, and new growth drivers continued to expand. The government has introduced policies to promote consumption, and the market is concerned about the introduction of more growth - stabilizing policies [18][21]. 4.基本面 (Fundamental Aspects) - **Supply Side** - **Copper Ore Import**: In October 2025, China's copper ore and concentrate imports were 2,451,487.80 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.24% and a year - on - year increase of 6.08%. The supply from major suppliers increased, but that from other sources decreased, and the tight supply of copper concentrate remained difficult to ease [22]. - **Processing Fees**: As of the week of November 21, the Mysteel standard clean copper concentrate TC weekly index was - 41.81 US dollars per dry ton, a decrease of 0.06 US dollars per dry ton from the previous week. The tight copper concentrate supply situation led to low processing fees and high pressure on the year - end negotiations between domestic smelters and overseas miners [25]. - **Inventory**: Affected by the 232 tariff policy, the US has absorbed a large amount of refined copper globally. Although the siphon effect is gradually weakening, South American copper still prefers to be exported to the US. The total global copper inventory exceeds 800,000 tons, remaining above the central level [28]. - **Production**: In October 2025, China's refined copper production was 1.204 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.9%. Due to smelter overhauls, the production decreased month - on - month, and the impact will be more evident in December [36]. - **Imports and Exports**: In October, China's refined copper imports were 323,144.72 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.62% and a year - on - year decrease of 16.32%. Exports were 65,945 tons, a year - on - year increase of more than five times and a month - on - month increase of nearly 1.5 times [45]. - **Waste Copper**: In October, China's waste copper imports were 196,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.81% and a year - on - year increase of 7.35%. However, the low domestic waste copper utilization rate limited the demand for recycled copper raw materials [41]. - **Demand Side** - **Copper - Aluminum Ratio**: The copper - aluminum ratio has exceeded 4.0, which is conducive to the substitution of aluminum for copper and suppresses copper consumption [31]. - **Downstream Products**: In October, the output of copper strips, copper rods, and other products decreased month - on - month due to high copper prices [48][52]. - **Real Estate**: The real estate market is still in the adjustment period, and the demand for copper in the real estate sector is suppressed [56]. - **New Energy**: In October 2025, China's new energy vehicle production was 1.71 million, a year - on - year increase of 19.3%. The new energy power generation sector maintained a high - growth trend, providing marginal demand for copper [61]. - **Home Appliances**: In October 2025, the production of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines decreased year - on - year. Although there was some subsidy release in November - December, the home appliance market was still under pressure [64].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The aluminum market is influenced by a combination of factors including macro - economic conditions, supply and demand dynamics, and cost factors. The overall trend of aluminum prices may be affected by the balance of these factors, with potential for high - level fluctuations and support from low - level inventories. [5][28] - The 12 - month interest rate cut expectation has increased, and the long - term broad - money cycle may drive copper and potentially aluminum prices upward. Domestic economic stability is expected, and more growth - stabilizing policies are awaited. [11][14][16] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1后市研判 (Outlook) - Pay attention to the changes in macro sentiment and the position of aluminum prices. [5][6] 3.2行情回顾 (Market Review) - In November, the futures prices of alumina, electrolytic aluminum, and aluminum alloy showed different trends. Alumina futures prices continued to be weak, dropping to a minimum of 2,701 yuan/ton. Electrolytic aluminum and aluminum alloy futures prices first rose and then fell, reaching a maximum of 22,160 yuan/ton and 21,390 yuan/ton respectively. [7][8] 3.3宏观面 (Macroeconomic Situation) 3.3.1 International Situation - The US economic data shows a complex situation. The ISM manufacturing PMI has been in contraction for eight consecutive months in October, while the ISM services PMI reached an eight - month high. The labor market shows signs of slowdown, and inflation has picked up. The market's expectation of an interest rate cut in December has increased to 75%. [14] 3.3.2 Domestic Situation - The domestic economy is running smoothly, with a continued supply - tight pattern in the aluminum market. The government is expected to introduce more growth - stabilizing policies. [16][18] 3.4基本面 (Fundamentals) 3.4.1 Supply Side - **Aluminum Bauxite**: In October, China's domestic aluminum bauxite production decreased, with a continuous decline for three months. Although the supply pressure in Henan has eased, the supply - tight pattern in the country continues. Overseas, the supply of imported aluminum bauxite is expected to increase in November. [19][22] - **Alumina**: In October, China's metallurgical - grade alumina production increased, but the daily average production decreased slightly. The overall operating capacity is still at a high level, but the profit has been compressed, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a low level. [27] - **Primary Aluminum (Electrolytic Aluminum)**: In October, China's primary aluminum production increased slightly year - on - year. The operating capacity remained high and stable, but the increase was limited due to energy consumption indicators and capacity replacement policies. Overseas capacity expansion has fallen short of expectations. [28][31] 3.4.2 Demand Side - **Aluminum Processing Enterprises**: High aluminum prices have put pressure on the start - up of aluminum processing enterprises. The overall start - up rate is 62.0%, with different trends in different product segments. [34] - **Real Estate Market**: The Chinese real estate market is still in the adjustment period, which has suppressed the demand for aluminum in the real estate sector. [36][37] - **New Energy Sector**: The new energy sector continues to be highly prosperous. The production and sales of new energy vehicles have increased significantly, and the new energy power generation industry (photovoltaic and wind power) has also maintained high growth, driving the demand for aluminum. [39][41] - **Home Appliance Market**: The home appliance market is under pressure, with the output of most home appliances showing a downward trend in October. [42][43] 3.4.3 Inventory - **Exchange Inventories**: The LME aluminum inventory has increased significantly, and the SHFE aluminum inventory is at a relatively low level. [46] - **Social Inventories**: As of November 24, the five - location electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 61.2 tons, which continued to be at a low level and supported the aluminum price. [49] 3.4.4 Other Factors - **Copper - Aluminum Ratio**: The copper - aluminum ratio has exceeded 4.0, which is beneficial for aluminum to replace copper, and the aluminum price may have an upward trend. [51] - **Recycled Aluminum Alloy**: In November, the start - up rate of the recycled aluminum alloy industry remained stable. In October, the import of unforged aluminum alloy decreased significantly, while the export increased. The price of recycled aluminum alloy in the spot market has fallen, and the social inventory has increased slightly. [54][55][58]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond futures market sentiment was weak this week, with the market rising first and then falling. The first half - week's recovery was due to the pricing of marginal positives around the central bank's restart of bond - buying. The sharp decline on Friday was triggered by the poor issuance of 30 - year bonds and the rumor of a 500 - billion to 1 - trillion - yuan support policy. The market formed a combination of weak reality and strong expectations, and bond prices were under pressure. Also, market funds tightened marginally in the second half of the week, despite the central bank's net injection of 562.3 billion yuan. Looking forward, the recent decline in bond futures provides a good entry opportunity. The bond market is supported by positive monetary policy signals, a stable capital market, and the configuration value of bond yields. In the long - term, weak effective demand and a deflationary trend are favorable for bond futures, and the logic of a bond bull market is expected to continue [4][8]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs PART ONE: Main Views - **Market Performance**: The market rose slightly in the first four days and fell sharply on Friday, closing slightly lower for the week. The early - week recovery was related to the central bank's bond - buying speculation, and the Friday decline was due to bond issuance results and policy rumors. Some bond futures contracts showed different price changes, such as TL2512 with a - 0.41% weekly decline and T2512 with a 0.12% weekly increase [4][5]. - **Market Influencing Factors**: In the second half of the week, market funds tightened marginally. The central bank's net injection of 562.3 billion yuan did not prevent the overnight fund price from rising to nearly 1.5%. The central bank adjusted the 14 - day reverse repurchase operation to an American - style tender [4]. - **Outlook**: The recent decline in bond futures offers a good entry opportunity. The bond market is supported by monetary policy, a stable capital market, and the configuration value of bond yields. In the long - term, weak effective demand and deflation are favorable for bond futures, and the bond bull market logic may continue [8]. PART TWO: Liquidity Tracking - **Open - Market Operations**: Information on the volume and price of open - market operations, including currency投放, currency回笼, and net投放, is presented through charts [10][11]. - **Medium - term Lending Facility**: Charts show the volume and price of MLF, including the monthly values of MLF投放 and收回 [12][13]. - **Interest Rates**: Various interest rates are presented, such as the 7 - day reverse repurchase rate, 1 - year MLF rate, loan market quotation rates (LPR) for 1 - year and 5 - year, and deposit reserve ratios for different types of financial institutions [14][16][30]. - **Fund Prices**: Different types of fund prices are shown, including deposit - type pledged repurchase rates, SHIBOR, Shanghai Stock Exchange pledged repurchase rates, and bond - pledged repurchase rates. Also, interest rate spreads and trading volumes of some rates are presented [20][22][24]. PART THREE: Treasury Bond Futures Arbitrage Indicator Tracking - **Treasury Bond Futures Basis**: Basis data for 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures are provided [44][45][47]. - **Treasury Bond Futures Net Basis**: Net basis data for 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures are presented [52][53][57]. - **Treasury Bond Futures IRR**: Implied repo rate (IRR) data for 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures are given [59][60][62]. - **Treasury Bond Futures Implied Interest Rate**: Implied interest rate data for 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures are provided [65][66].

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings for Industries - **Bullish**: Crude oil, Fuel oil, Coke [1] - **Bearish**: None - **Neutral (Oscillating)**: Most other industries including Index, Treasury bonds, Gold, Silver, Copper, Aluminum, Alumina, Zinc, Nickel, Stainless steel, Industrial silicon, Polysilicon, Lithium carbonate, Rebar, Hot-rolled coil, Iron ore, Non-ferrous metals, Soda ash, Coking coal, Palm oil, Soybean oil, Rapeseed oil, Cotton, Sugar, Corn, Soybean meal, Pulp, Logs, Live pigs, Asphalt, BR rubber, PTA, Ethylene glycol, Short fiber, Pure benzene and styrene, Urea, PP, PVC, STE HOX, LPG, Container shipping on the European route [1] 2. Core Views - **Macro-financial**: The long-term view for stock index futures is bullish, but the probability of a unilateral upward trend in the market before the National Day holiday is low, and investors are advised to control their positions; the asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank's short-term warning on interest rate risks suppresses the upward space [1] - **Non-ferrous metals**: After the Fed's interest rate cut, the non-ferrous sector has oscillated and corrected. Each metal has different supply and demand fundamentals, resulting in varying price trends, with most having limited downward or upward space [1] - **Agricultural products**: Different agricultural products have different supply and demand situations, such as palm oil having a chance to break through the oscillation range and rise, soybean oil having a long-term bullish outlook, and sugar and corn prices oscillating [1] - **Energy and chemicals**: The supply and demand of energy and chemical products are complex. Crude oil and fuel oil are bullish due to factors such as inventory decline and production increase plans, while most other products oscillate due to various supply and demand and cost factors [1] 3. Summary by Industry **Macro-financial** - **Stock index futures**: Long-term bullish, low probability of unilateral rise before National Day, control positions [1] - **Treasury bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but central bank's interest rate risk warning suppresses upward space [1] **Non-ferrous metals** - **Gold**: After the Fed's interest rate cut, it is expected to oscillate and adjust in the short term, with limited adjustment intensity [1] - **Silver**: After the Fed's interest rate cut, some long positions left the market, and it is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term [1] - **Copper**: After the Fed's interest rate cut, copper prices are under pressure, but with the start of the easing cycle and improving downstream demand, the callback space is limited [1] - **Aluminum**: After the Fed's interest rate cut, aluminum prices are under pressure, but with the arrival of the consumption peak season, the downward space is limited [1] - **Alumina**: Production and inventory are increasing, the spot price is under pressure, but it is approaching the cost line, so the downward space is limited [1] - **Zinc**: Social inventory is increasing, and zinc prices are oscillating and weakening in the short term [1] - **Nickel**: After the Fed's interest rate cut, the non-ferrous sector oscillated and corrected. Nickel prices are oscillating in a range in the short term, and attention should be paid to supply and macro changes [1] - **Stainless steel**: After the Fed's interest rate cut, the non-ferrous sector oscillated and corrected. Stainless steel futures are oscillating in the short term, and attention should be paid to the actual production of steel mills [1] **Agricultural products** - **Palm oil**: Affected by floods in Malaysia's Sabah state, the supply is disrupted, and the price is expected to break through the oscillation range and rise [1] - **Soybean oil**: The de-stocking expectation in the fourth quarter remains unchanged, and it is bullish in the long term. Short-term attention should be paid to the impact of Sino-US negotiations [1] - **Rapeseed oil**: Canada may adjust imports, and a positive spread strategy for rapeseed oil 11=1 is recommended [1] - **Cotton**: The new cotton harvest is expected to be abundant, and the short-term supply may be tight. The acquisition game during the new cotton acquisition period will be the focus [1] - **Sugar**: New sugar is on the market, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly with limited downward space in the short term [1] - **Corn**: The new season's corn has not been fully listed, and the price is oscillating at a low level in the short term. C01 is expected to remain weak later [1] - **Soybean meal**: Affected by Sino-US negotiations and pig anti-involution policies, the price is under pressure. It is oscillating in a range, and attention should be paid to Sino-US policies and Brazilian planting weather [1] **Energy and chemicals** - **Crude oil**: Bullish due to factors such as US inventory decline, OPEC+ production increase plan, and Fed's interest rate cut [1] - **Fuel oil**: Bullish for the same reasons as crude oil [1] - **Asphalt**: Short-term supply and demand contradiction is not prominent, following crude oil. The "14th Five-Year Plan" construction demand may be falsified, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient [1] - **BR rubber**: The supply of synthetic rubber is loose, and the downstream trading is weakening. The price is oscillating, and attention should be paid to inventory de-stocking and device maintenance [1] - **PTA**: Domestic production is increasing, the basis is declining rapidly, and the polyester operating rate has recovered [1] - **Ethylene glycol**: The basis is strengthening, but the upcoming production of Yulong Petrochemical's device and the increase in hedging positions after the price rise bring pressure [1] - **Short fiber**: Factory devices are gradually returning, and the delivery willingness of market warehouse receipts has weakened with the price decline [1] - **Pure benzene and styrene**: Supply is increasing after maintenance, and domestic import pressure is increasing [1] - **Urea**: Export sentiment has eased, and there is limited upward space due to insufficient domestic demand, but there is support from anti-involution and cost [1] - **PP**: Oscillating weakly due to factors such as limited maintenance support, rigid demand for orders, and return to fundamentals [1] - **PVC**: Supply pressure is increasing, and there are many near-month warehouse receipts, so the price is oscillating weakly [1] - **LPG**: Crude oil production increase and bearish fundamentals suppress the upward momentum, but there are factors such as international demand and domestic device profit changes [1] **Others** - **Container shipping on the European route**: In September, the supply exceeded the same period, and the freight rate is expected to decline [1]

Group 1: Regulatory Actions in the Automotive Industry - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, along with five other departments, has launched a three-month campaign to address online chaos in the automotive industry, focusing on illegal profit-making activities [2][3] - Key issues targeted include the creation of false content to manipulate public perception of automotive companies, as well as the use of fake evaluations to extort businesses [2][3] - The campaign aims to enhance self-regulation among automotive companies and improve reporting channels for identifying online misconduct [4] Group 2: Misleading Advertising and Malicious Attacks - The initiative also addresses exaggerated and false advertising practices, including misleading claims about vehicle performance and sales figures [3] - There are concerns about malicious attacks on automotive companies, including organized efforts to discredit competitors and manipulate public opinion through fake news [3] Group 3: Corporate Responses and Market Implications - Automotive companies are encouraged to conduct self-assessments and report any identified issues to relevant authorities, aiming for a more transparent and fair market environment [4] - The initiative may lead to stricter regulations and oversight in the automotive sector, potentially impacting companies' marketing strategies and public relations efforts [4]

Employment Data - In July 2025, the U.S. added 73,000 non-farm jobs, significantly below the expected 104,000, marking a deviation of 1 standard deviation[3] - The previous month's job figure was revised down from 147,000 to 14,000, with a total downward revision of 258,000 jobs over the past two months, the largest since June 2020[3] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.248%, higher than the expected 4.2% and the previous 4.117%, the highest level since November 2021[3] Sector Analysis - The education and healthcare sectors have become the largest contributors to U.S. non-farm employment, with healthcare jobs up 13% compared to December 2019[3] - In July, the education and healthcare sector added 79,000 jobs according to non-farm data, while the ADP data showed a decrease of 38,000 jobs, indicating a divergence between the two reporting methods[3] - Other sectors, such as federal government and temporary assistance services, continue to see job losses, highlighting a weak employment growth in various industries[3] Data Revision Insights - The significant downward revision of previous non-farm data is attributed to a recalibration of seasonal adjustment factors by the BLS, rather than political motivations[3] - The feedback rates for May's non-farm data were 93.5% and 94.4%, yet the second revision still showed a decrease of 125,000 jobs, indicating potential issues in data collection and reporting[3] Market Implications - Short-term data fluctuations may increase asset price volatility, necessitating a focus on mid-term narratives such as the ongoing accommodative monetary policy and the challenges facing the U.S. dollar's credibility[2] - Risks include unexpected policy shifts from the Trump administration, excessive rate cuts by the Federal Reserve leading to inflationary pressures, and prolonged high interest rates causing liquidity crises in the financial system[2]