1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond futures market sentiment was weak this week, with the market rising first and then falling. The first half - week's recovery was due to the pricing of marginal positives around the central bank's restart of bond - buying. The sharp decline on Friday was triggered by the poor issuance of 30 - year bonds and the rumor of a 500 - billion to 1 - trillion - yuan support policy. The market formed a combination of weak reality and strong expectations, and bond prices were under pressure. Also, market funds tightened marginally in the second half of the week, despite the central bank's net injection of 562.3 billion yuan. Looking forward, the recent decline in bond futures provides a good entry opportunity. The bond market is supported by positive monetary policy signals, a stable capital market, and the configuration value of bond yields. In the long - term, weak effective demand and a deflationary trend are favorable for bond futures, and the logic of a bond bull market is expected to continue [4][8]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs PART ONE: Main Views - **Market Performance**: The market rose slightly in the first four days and fell sharply on Friday, closing slightly lower for the week. The early - week recovery was related to the central bank's bond - buying speculation, and the Friday decline was due to bond issuance results and policy rumors. Some bond futures contracts showed different price changes, such as TL2512 with a - 0.41% weekly decline and T2512 with a 0.12% weekly increase [4][5]. - **Market Influencing Factors**: In the second half of the week, market funds tightened marginally. The central bank's net injection of 562.3 billion yuan did not prevent the overnight fund price from rising to nearly 1.5%. The central bank adjusted the 14 - day reverse repurchase operation to an American - style tender [4]. - **Outlook**: The recent decline in bond futures offers a good entry opportunity. The bond market is supported by monetary policy, a stable capital market, and the configuration value of bond yields. In the long - term, weak effective demand and deflation are favorable for bond futures, and the bond bull market logic may continue [8]. PART TWO: Liquidity Tracking - **Open - Market Operations**: Information on the volume and price of open - market operations, including currency投放, currency回笼, and net投放, is presented through charts [10][11]. - **Medium - term Lending Facility**: Charts show the volume and price of MLF, including the monthly values of MLF投放 and收回 [12][13]. - **Interest Rates**: Various interest rates are presented, such as the 7 - day reverse repurchase rate, 1 - year MLF rate, loan market quotation rates (LPR) for 1 - year and 5 - year, and deposit reserve ratios for different types of financial institutions [14][16][30]. - **Fund Prices**: Different types of fund prices are shown, including deposit - type pledged repurchase rates, SHIBOR, Shanghai Stock Exchange pledged repurchase rates, and bond - pledged repurchase rates. Also, interest rate spreads and trading volumes of some rates are presented [20][22][24]. PART THREE: Treasury Bond Futures Arbitrage Indicator Tracking - **Treasury Bond Futures Basis**: Basis data for 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures are provided [44][45][47]. - **Treasury Bond Futures Net Basis**: Net basis data for 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures are presented [52][53][57]. - **Treasury Bond Futures IRR**: Implied repo rate (IRR) data for 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures are given [59][60][62]. - **Treasury Bond Futures Implied Interest Rate**: Implied interest rate data for 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures are provided [65][66].

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings for Industries - **Bullish**: Crude oil, Fuel oil, Coke [1] - **Bearish**: None - **Neutral (Oscillating)**: Most other industries including Index, Treasury bonds, Gold, Silver, Copper, Aluminum, Alumina, Zinc, Nickel, Stainless steel, Industrial silicon, Polysilicon, Lithium carbonate, Rebar, Hot-rolled coil, Iron ore, Non-ferrous metals, Soda ash, Coking coal, Palm oil, Soybean oil, Rapeseed oil, Cotton, Sugar, Corn, Soybean meal, Pulp, Logs, Live pigs, Asphalt, BR rubber, PTA, Ethylene glycol, Short fiber, Pure benzene and styrene, Urea, PP, PVC, STE HOX, LPG, Container shipping on the European route [1] 2. Core Views - **Macro-financial**: The long-term view for stock index futures is bullish, but the probability of a unilateral upward trend in the market before the National Day holiday is low, and investors are advised to control their positions; the asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank's short-term warning on interest rate risks suppresses the upward space [1] - **Non-ferrous metals**: After the Fed's interest rate cut, the non-ferrous sector has oscillated and corrected. Each metal has different supply and demand fundamentals, resulting in varying price trends, with most having limited downward or upward space [1] - **Agricultural products**: Different agricultural products have different supply and demand situations, such as palm oil having a chance to break through the oscillation range and rise, soybean oil having a long-term bullish outlook, and sugar and corn prices oscillating [1] - **Energy and chemicals**: The supply and demand of energy and chemical products are complex. Crude oil and fuel oil are bullish due to factors such as inventory decline and production increase plans, while most other products oscillate due to various supply and demand and cost factors [1] 3. Summary by Industry **Macro-financial** - **Stock index futures**: Long-term bullish, low probability of unilateral rise before National Day, control positions [1] - **Treasury bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but central bank's interest rate risk warning suppresses upward space [1] **Non-ferrous metals** - **Gold**: After the Fed's interest rate cut, it is expected to oscillate and adjust in the short term, with limited adjustment intensity [1] - **Silver**: After the Fed's interest rate cut, some long positions left the market, and it is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term [1] - **Copper**: After the Fed's interest rate cut, copper prices are under pressure, but with the start of the easing cycle and improving downstream demand, the callback space is limited [1] - **Aluminum**: After the Fed's interest rate cut, aluminum prices are under pressure, but with the arrival of the consumption peak season, the downward space is limited [1] - **Alumina**: Production and inventory are increasing, the spot price is under pressure, but it is approaching the cost line, so the downward space is limited [1] - **Zinc**: Social inventory is increasing, and zinc prices are oscillating and weakening in the short term [1] - **Nickel**: After the Fed's interest rate cut, the non-ferrous sector oscillated and corrected. Nickel prices are oscillating in a range in the short term, and attention should be paid to supply and macro changes [1] - **Stainless steel**: After the Fed's interest rate cut, the non-ferrous sector oscillated and corrected. Stainless steel futures are oscillating in the short term, and attention should be paid to the actual production of steel mills [1] **Agricultural products** - **Palm oil**: Affected by floods in Malaysia's Sabah state, the supply is disrupted, and the price is expected to break through the oscillation range and rise [1] - **Soybean oil**: The de-stocking expectation in the fourth quarter remains unchanged, and it is bullish in the long term. Short-term attention should be paid to the impact of Sino-US negotiations [1] - **Rapeseed oil**: Canada may adjust imports, and a positive spread strategy for rapeseed oil 11=1 is recommended [1] - **Cotton**: The new cotton harvest is expected to be abundant, and the short-term supply may be tight. The acquisition game during the new cotton acquisition period will be the focus [1] - **Sugar**: New sugar is on the market, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly with limited downward space in the short term [1] - **Corn**: The new season's corn has not been fully listed, and the price is oscillating at a low level in the short term. C01 is expected to remain weak later [1] - **Soybean meal**: Affected by Sino-US negotiations and pig anti-involution policies, the price is under pressure. It is oscillating in a range, and attention should be paid to Sino-US policies and Brazilian planting weather [1] **Energy and chemicals** - **Crude oil**: Bullish due to factors such as US inventory decline, OPEC+ production increase plan, and Fed's interest rate cut [1] - **Fuel oil**: Bullish for the same reasons as crude oil [1] - **Asphalt**: Short-term supply and demand contradiction is not prominent, following crude oil. The "14th Five-Year Plan" construction demand may be falsified, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient [1] - **BR rubber**: The supply of synthetic rubber is loose, and the downstream trading is weakening. The price is oscillating, and attention should be paid to inventory de-stocking and device maintenance [1] - **PTA**: Domestic production is increasing, the basis is declining rapidly, and the polyester operating rate has recovered [1] - **Ethylene glycol**: The basis is strengthening, but the upcoming production of Yulong Petrochemical's device and the increase in hedging positions after the price rise bring pressure [1] - **Short fiber**: Factory devices are gradually returning, and the delivery willingness of market warehouse receipts has weakened with the price decline [1] - **Pure benzene and styrene**: Supply is increasing after maintenance, and domestic import pressure is increasing [1] - **Urea**: Export sentiment has eased, and there is limited upward space due to insufficient domestic demand, but there is support from anti-involution and cost [1] - **PP**: Oscillating weakly due to factors such as limited maintenance support, rigid demand for orders, and return to fundamentals [1] - **PVC**: Supply pressure is increasing, and there are many near-month warehouse receipts, so the price is oscillating weakly [1] - **LPG**: Crude oil production increase and bearish fundamentals suppress the upward momentum, but there are factors such as international demand and domestic device profit changes [1] **Others** - **Container shipping on the European route**: In September, the supply exceeded the same period, and the freight rate is expected to decline [1]

Group 1: Regulatory Actions in the Automotive Industry - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, along with five other departments, has launched a three-month campaign to address online chaos in the automotive industry, focusing on illegal profit-making activities [2][3] - Key issues targeted include the creation of false content to manipulate public perception of automotive companies, as well as the use of fake evaluations to extort businesses [2][3] - The campaign aims to enhance self-regulation among automotive companies and improve reporting channels for identifying online misconduct [4] Group 2: Misleading Advertising and Malicious Attacks - The initiative also addresses exaggerated and false advertising practices, including misleading claims about vehicle performance and sales figures [3] - There are concerns about malicious attacks on automotive companies, including organized efforts to discredit competitors and manipulate public opinion through fake news [3] Group 3: Corporate Responses and Market Implications - Automotive companies are encouraged to conduct self-assessments and report any identified issues to relevant authorities, aiming for a more transparent and fair market environment [4] - The initiative may lead to stricter regulations and oversight in the automotive sector, potentially impacting companies' marketing strategies and public relations efforts [4]

Employment Data - In July 2025, the U.S. added 73,000 non-farm jobs, significantly below the expected 104,000, marking a deviation of 1 standard deviation[3] - The previous month's job figure was revised down from 147,000 to 14,000, with a total downward revision of 258,000 jobs over the past two months, the largest since June 2020[3] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.248%, higher than the expected 4.2% and the previous 4.117%, the highest level since November 2021[3] Sector Analysis - The education and healthcare sectors have become the largest contributors to U.S. non-farm employment, with healthcare jobs up 13% compared to December 2019[3] - In July, the education and healthcare sector added 79,000 jobs according to non-farm data, while the ADP data showed a decrease of 38,000 jobs, indicating a divergence between the two reporting methods[3] - Other sectors, such as federal government and temporary assistance services, continue to see job losses, highlighting a weak employment growth in various industries[3] Data Revision Insights - The significant downward revision of previous non-farm data is attributed to a recalibration of seasonal adjustment factors by the BLS, rather than political motivations[3] - The feedback rates for May's non-farm data were 93.5% and 94.4%, yet the second revision still showed a decrease of 125,000 jobs, indicating potential issues in data collection and reporting[3] Market Implications - Short-term data fluctuations may increase asset price volatility, necessitating a focus on mid-term narratives such as the ongoing accommodative monetary policy and the challenges facing the U.S. dollar's credibility[2] - Risks include unexpected policy shifts from the Trump administration, excessive rate cuts by the Federal Reserve leading to inflationary pressures, and prolonged high interest rates causing liquidity crises in the financial system[2]