Core Viewpoint - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting is pivotal for the U.S. dollar's direction, influenced by economic data, interest rate expectations, and geopolitical risks [10]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Expectations - The market anticipates the Federal Reserve will maintain the federal funds rate at its current level during the June meeting, with a nearly 80% probability of a rate cut in September [2][3]. - The market is eager for forward guidance from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) regarding the economic outlook and future policy direction [2][3]. Group 2: Economic Data Impact - Recent economic data, particularly a 0.9% decline in retail sales in May, signals weakening consumer spending, which constitutes about 70% of U.S. economic activity [4][5]. - Industrial production also unexpectedly fell by 0.2% in May, indicating potential issues such as global demand slowdown and reduced domestic investment [4][5]. Group 3: Geopolitical Risks - Escalating geopolitical tensions, especially between Israel and Iran, are contributing to a risk-averse sentiment among global investors, leading to increased demand for the U.S. dollar as a safe-haven asset [6][7]. - The complexity of the situation, including calls for ceasefires and strong statements from U.S. officials, adds to the uncertainty surrounding the geopolitical landscape [7]. Group 4: Dollar's Performance Outlook - The dollar may face significant downward pressure if the Federal Reserve adopts a more dovish stance, acknowledging increased economic risks and signaling potential rate cuts [3][9]. - Conversely, if the Fed maintains a cautious or neutral tone, the dollar could find support from its safe-haven status amid ongoing geopolitical risks [9][10]. - The dollar's future trajectory will depend on the balance between economic data, inflation outlook, external risks, and the Fed's policy objectives [10][11].

看ip，刚到家，第一件事就是先想着上钟来了。 北京到临海有直达车，车程将近8小时，屁股都坐硬了，中间停靠的站点太多，乘坐体验很不好，但每天也就这么一班车没得选，每次到家都差不多晚上9 点半。 周末的新闻我倒是在车上大致看了一遍，就说几件最重要的事。 影响最大的是周五美国公布的非农就业数据很好，大超市场预期，严重削弱了美元在2025年的降息预期。我截一张国外下注网站的走势图给你们看看。 蓝线代表全年降息一次（0.25%），在周五经济数据公布后已经攀升至概率第一，有29%。红线代表全年降息两次（0.5%），之前一直概率领先，但周五 被蓝线反超，目前概率是21%。 央行这边也有一些应对，暂停买入国债操作，这让债券利率略有反弹，算是对冲了美元的强势冲击。 如果上面的内容你看着有点绕，我可以给一个简单粗暴的结论，这事偏利空，对全球资本市场，对港股都不是好消息，a股有外汇防火墙，影响会小一 点，但问题是a股现在自己正在闹腹泻，所以对周一不友好。 …… 周末重要的事就这一件，另外还有一些鸡零狗碎的，过一遍你有个印象就行。 1、财政部10日开了个国信办发布会，会上说了2025年赤字规模将有较大幅度增加，但是记者问具体数字的时 ...