美元降息预期

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商品的分化与权益的韧性 - 节后大类资产行情展望_
2025-10-09 02:00
商品的分化与权益的韧性 - 节后大类资产行情展望 20251008 摘要 AI 产业趋势出现变化,光模块压价和甲骨文利润下滑成为重要变量,需 关注企业间合纵连横背后的逻辑,如 Oracle 与 AMD 的表现差异。 全球资本市场呈现业绩驱动特征,电子、计算机等行业表现突出,而地 产链等传统行业表现较差,市场分化明显。 黄金价格上涨受美元降息预期支撑,但需关注全球经济状况、美联储政 策及投资者风险偏好等因素,以及货币体系稳定性的担忧。 A 股市场交易过度集中,成交额前 5%的公司占比超过 45%,市场走强 由部分业绩优异行业推动,整体呈现极端分化特点。 AI 产业发展呈现高度杠杆化特点,任何小幅度业绩或应用突破都会带来 巨大市值扩张,需关注 OpenAI 与英伟达、英特尔和甲骨文等公司的合 作。 2024 年以来,A 股市场受益于中国经济转型和企业国际化,新消费、 创新药、光模块等领域表现突出,国际化企业受益明显。 铜市场原料紧张预期逐步兑现,国内铜消费表现良好,但需关注美国市 场对全球铜供应的影响,以及 LME 基金多头持仓情况。 Q&A 如何理解历史高点与行业分化的关系? 历史上的几个市场高点通常与行业的极 ...
建信期货锌期货日报-20250912
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-09-12 01:49
Report Information - Report Title: Zinc Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: September 12, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin, Yu Feifei [3][4] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The low PPI in the US since June has strengthened the expectation of interest rate cuts, leading to a decline in the US dollar. The main contract of Shanghai zinc closed at 22,250 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan or 0.36%, with increased volume and decreased positions. The domestic fundamental weakness remains unchanged, and it will take time for the consumer side to improve. The inflection point of social inventory reduction has not appeared, and Shanghai zinc fluctuates in the middle and lower tracks of the Bollinger Bands [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - US PPI hit a new low since June, strengthening the expectation of interest rate cuts and causing the US dollar to fall. The main contract of Shanghai zinc closed at 22,250 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan or 0.36%, with increased volume and decreased positions. The 09 - 10 spread was -65 yuan/ton. In August, the refined zinc output was 626,200 tons, a year-on-year increase of 28.7%. The refined zinc output in September was slightly adjusted down but is still expected to be above 600,000 tons. The logistics and production restrictions in North and Central China have been lifted, and the galvanizing start - up rate is expected to increase month - on - month. The inventory in Tianjin has decreased slightly, while the inventory in Shanghai and Guangdong has increased. The total social inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions has increased by 0.21 million tons to 15.42 million tons. LME zinc inventory has decreased by 200 tons to 50,825 tons. The concern about overseas refined zinc supply has caused a spot premium, and the 0 - 3B has strengthened to $23.01/ton, supporting LME zinc [7]. 2. Industry News - On September 11, 2025, the mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc was concentrated between 22,205 - 22,265 yuan/ton, and that of Shuangyan was between 22,325 - 22,385 yuan/ton. The mainstream transaction price of 1 zinc was between 22,135 - 22,195 yuan/ton. In the morning, the market quoted a premium of 30 - 40 yuan/ton over the SMM average price. In the second trading session, the ordinary domestic zinc was quoted at a discount of 20 yuan/ton to the 2510 contract, Honglu - v was at par with the 2510 contract, Huize was at a premium of 60 yuan/ton to the 2510 contract, and the high - end brand Shuangyan was at a premium of 100 yuan/ton to the 2510 contract [8]. - In the Ningbo market, the mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc was around 22,205 - 22,255 yuan/ton. The regular brands in Ningbo were quoted at a discount of 35 yuan/ton to the 2510 contract and at a premium of 30 yuan/ton to the Shanghai spot price. In the first trading period, Qilin was quoted at a premium of 10 yuan/ton to the 2510 contract, Anning was at a discount of 30 - 20 yuan/ton to the 2510 contract, Honglu - v was at par with the 2510 contract, and Jiulong was quoted at a discount of 10 yuan/ton to the 2510 contract for delivery [8]. - In the Tianjin market, the mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc ingots was between 22,150 - 22,240 yuan/ton, and that of Zijin was between 22,200 - 22,260 yuan/ton. The transaction price of 1 zinc ingots was around 22,110 - 22,170 yuan/ton, and the price of Huludao was 22,980 yuan/ton. The ordinary 0 zinc was quoted at a discount of 40 - 80 yuan/ton to the 2510 contract, and Zijin was at a discount of 20 - 30 yuan/ton to the 2510 contract. The Tianjin market was at a discount of about 20 yuan/ton compared to the Shanghai market [8]. - In Guangdong, the mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc was between 22,090 - 22,190 yuan/ton. The mainstream brands were quoted at a discount of 105 yuan/ton to the 2510 contract and at a discount of 40 yuan/ton to the Shanghai spot price. The price difference between Shanghai and Guangdong has widened [9]. 3. Data Overview - The report provides figures on the price trends of zinc in two markets, the SHFE monthly spread, the weekly inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots, and LME zinc inventory, with data sources including Wind and SMM, and the research and development department of Jianxin Futures [13][14]
大类资产运行周报:鲍威尔表态偏鸽,美元指数偏弱运行-20250825
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-08-25 11:41
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - During the week from August 18th to 22nd, at the Jackson Hole Central Bank Annual Meeting, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell released a dovish signal, causing the expectation of a September US dollar interest rate cut to rise. The US and the EU reached an agreement on the trade agreement framework, and the US dollar index declined weekly. Globally, stocks were divided, while bonds and commodities rose, with commodities > bonds > stocks in terms of US - dollar - denominated performance. In China, the stock market rose, while the bond and commodity markets were weak, with stocks > bonds > commodities. Liquidity and policy expectations resonated, driving the rise of the domestic equity market. With the Fed releasing a rate - cut signal, the subsequent market sentiment changes should be monitored [3][6][20]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Global Major Asset Overall Performance: Stocks Divided, Bonds and Commodities Rising - **Global Stock Market Overview**: Due to the uncertainty of the market regarding Powell's speech, the global stock market first declined and then rose. European stocks had the highest increase, and emerging markets underperformed developed markets. The VIX index continued to fluctuate at a low level. For example, MSCI Europe rose 1.42% weekly, while MSCI Asia - Pacific fell 0.56% [7][11][13]. - **Global Bond Market Overview**: Powell signaled a cautious US dollar interest rate cut. His statement made it difficult for Fed officials to reach a broad policy consensus. The yields of medium - and long - term US bonds generally declined, with the 10 - year US bond yield dropping 7BP to 4.26% weekly. Globally, credit bonds > high - yield bonds > government bonds [15]. - **Global Foreign Exchange Market Overview**: The preliminary value of the US Markit Manufacturing PMI in August was better than expected and the previous value. The expectation of a September interest rate cut led to a 0.12% weekly decline in the US dollar index. Major non - US currencies against the US dollar had mixed performances, and the RMB exchange rate was oscillating strongly [17]. - **Global Commodity Market Overview**: The expectation of a US dollar interest rate cut weakened the US dollar index, promoting the rise of the international commodity market. Major industrial products and agricultural products generally rose [19]. 3.2 Domestic Major Asset Performance: Stock Market Rising, Bond and Commodity Markets Weak - **Domestic Stock Market Overview**: The positive momentum of market risk appetite remained unchanged. Major broad - based A - share indexes generally rose, and the average daily trading volume of the two markets increased compared to the previous week. The growth style was more prominent, and the communication and electronics sectors had the highest increases, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 3.49% weekly [21]. - **Domestic Bond Market Overview**: The central bank's net investment in the open - market operations was 126.52 billion yuan. The capital supply tightened, and the bond market declined weekly. Overall, corporate bonds > credit bonds > government bonds [23]. - **Domestic Commodity Market Overview**: The domestic commodity market declined weekly. Among major commodity sectors, the energy sector rose, while the black sector performed poorly. For example, the Nanhua Commodity Index fell 0.44% weekly [25]. 3.3 Major Asset Price Outlook - Pay attention to the sentiment changes in the domestic equity market. The resonance of liquidity and policy expectations drove the rise of the domestic equity market. Coupled with the Fed's rate - cut signal, monitor the subsequent market sentiment changes [26].
美元降息预期引爆套利交易,资本涌入高利率新兴市场货币
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-08-11 08:42
在美联储降息预期升温、美元走弱、新兴市场利率较高的背景下,套息交易正强势回归,大量资金涌入 新兴市场。 据美国银行援引EPFR数据的报告显示,过去4个月,专门投资发展中国家债券的全球基金每周都有资金 流入,截至8月6日当周,单周流入规模更是达到17亿美元。 今年以来,23种主要新兴市场货币中有18种兑美元升值。从Neuberger Berman到Aberdeen Group等多家 资产管理公司重新布局巴西、南非、埃及等高收益货币,推动新兴市场资产迎来三年来首次持续资金流 入。 目前套息交易已获得双位数回报率,彭博累计外汇套息交易指数(追踪八种新兴市场货币兑美元的表 现)今年已涨超10%。但多位分析师认为,套息交易可能还有进一步上涨的空间。例如,摩根大通此前 将新兴市场货币和本币债券的评级上调至"增持",理由是美元走弱趋势在暂停一个月后重新延续。 美元疲软为套息交易扫清障碍 套息交易是指投资者借入低利率货币(比如未来可能降息的美元,借钱成本低),换成高利率货币进行 投资(比如巴西、墨西哥等新兴市场货币,持有能赚更高利息),从而赚取利差收益。同时如果高息货 币还对美元升值,能赚更多。 第一,美国就业数据疲弱加剧了 ...
DLSM外汇:美元持续走软,降息预期是否已全面反映市场?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-07 09:52
Group 1 - The recent trend of a weakening US dollar has become more pronounced, particularly after July's employment data fell short of expectations, leading to increased market bets on interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year [1][3] - The US dollar index dropped by 0.56%, reaching a new low since the end of July, reflecting deepening investor concerns about the US economic outlook [1][3] - The weak labor market and poor performance in Treasury bond auctions are contributing factors to the dollar's decline, indicating growing economic pressures [1][3] Group 2 - July's employment growth in the US was below expectations, and previous months' non-farm payroll data was significantly revised down, acting as a catalyst for shifting market expectations towards monetary easing [3] - The euro has emerged as the biggest beneficiary of the dollar's adjustment, with the euro to dollar exchange rate rising to 1.1662, the highest in nearly a week, due to a relatively stable policy path from the European Central Bank [3][4] - The Japanese yen has weakened, falling below 147 yen to the dollar, as concerns about US tariffs impact Japan's economy, suggesting a cautious stance from the Bank of Japan regarding interest rate decisions [3][4] Group 3 - Switzerland is actively pursuing a trade agreement with the US to avoid high tariffs on exports, which has positively influenced the Swiss franc despite a slight decline against the dollar [4] - The current weakening of the dollar reflects changes in economic fundamentals and market adjustments to the Federal Reserve's future policy path [4] - Future economic data and geopolitical developments will continue to evolve, necessitating close monitoring of Federal Reserve statements and global macro events that influence market sentiment [4]
大类资产运行周报(20250623-20250627):地缘冲突明显缓和,权益资产周度上涨-20250630
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-06-30 13:21
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - From June 23 to June 27, 2025, with the significant easing of the Middle - East geopolitical situation and the US "Big and Beautiful" bill passing the Senate's procedural vote, the dollar index declined weekly. Globally, stocks and bonds rose while commodities fell significantly. In China, the stock market rose, the bond market fluctuated, and commodities declined. The market's focus shifted to the global macro - economy, and attention should be paid to the progress of US tariff negotiations as the 90 - day tariff exemption period approaches its end [3][6][26] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Global Major Asset Overall Performance: Stocks and Bonds Rise, Commodities Fall Significantly - **Global Stock Market Overview: Major Stock Markets Rise Universally** - From June 23 to June 27, the cooling of risk - aversion sentiment boosted equity assets. Major global stock markets generally rose, with US stocks leading in gains. Emerging markets underperformed developed markets, and the VIX index remained low. For example, MSCI US rose 3.45% weekly, MSCI Europe rose 3.04%, and MSCI Asia - Pacific rose 3.15% [8][11][12] - **Global Bond Market Overview: Expectations of Dollar Interest Rate Cuts Increase** - Fed Chairman Powell's remarks in the congressional hearing raised expectations of dollar interest rate cuts, causing the yields of medium - and long - term US bonds to decline. The 10 - year US bond yield dropped 9BP to 4.29% weekly. Globally, high - yield bonds > credit bonds > government bonds. For instance, the global high - yield bond index rose 1.10% weekly [15] - **Global Foreign Exchange Market Overview: The Dollar Index Declines Weekly** - Due to the decline in market risk - aversion sentiment and the increase in expectations of dollar interest rate cuts, the dollar index dropped significantly, once falling below the 97 - integer mark. Most non - US currencies appreciated against the dollar, and the RMB exchange rate rose. The dollar index fell 1.52% weekly [16] - **Global Commodity Market Overview: International Oil Prices Drop Sharply** - The easing of geopolitical tensions led to a significant weekly decline in international oil prices and a subsequent correction in international gold prices. Most major agricultural products fell, while non - ferrous metal prices rose. For example, the S&P GSCI Energy Index dropped 10.69% weekly [19][20] 3.2 Domestic Major Asset Performance: Stock Market Rises, Bond Market Fluctuates, Commodities Fall - **Domestic Stock Market Overview: Major A - share Broad - based Indexes Rise Weekly** - With the easing of international geopolitical conflicts, major A - share broad - based indexes rose. The average daily trading volume of the two markets increased compared to the previous week. Growth - style stocks performed outstandingly. Sectors such as comprehensive finance and computer led in gains, while the petroleum and petrochemical sector performed poorly. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.91% weekly [22] - **Domestic Bond Market Overview: The Bond Market Fluctuates Narrowly** - From June 23 to June 27, the central bank's net injection in the open - market operations was 126.72 billion yuan. The capital situation was relatively stable overall. The bond market fluctuated weakly. Generally, credit bonds > corporate bonds > government bonds. For example, the ChinaBond Credit Bond Total Wealth (Aggregate) Index rose 0.02% weekly [23] - **Domestic Commodity Market Overview: The Commodity Market Drops Significantly** - The domestic commodity market declined overall. Among major commodity sectors, non - ferrous metals led in gains, while the energy sector performed poorly. For example, the Nanhua Non - Ferrous Metals Index rose 2.71% weekly, while the Nanhua Energy Index dropped 8.78% weekly [24] 3.3 Major Asset Price Outlook: Pay Attention to the Progress of US Tariff Policy - The market's focus has shifted to the global macro - economy. As the 90 - day US tariff exemption period nears its end, attention should be paid to the progress of tariff negotiations [26]
【UNFX课堂】美元指数的十字路口:在鸽派预期、经济疲软与地缘政治风险间寻求方向
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-18 03:59
Core Viewpoint - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting is pivotal for the U.S. dollar's direction, influenced by economic data, interest rate expectations, and geopolitical risks [10]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Expectations - The market anticipates the Federal Reserve will maintain the federal funds rate at its current level during the June meeting, with a nearly 80% probability of a rate cut in September [2][3]. - The market is eager for forward guidance from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) regarding the economic outlook and future policy direction [2][3]. Group 2: Economic Data Impact - Recent economic data, particularly a 0.9% decline in retail sales in May, signals weakening consumer spending, which constitutes about 70% of U.S. economic activity [4][5]. - Industrial production also unexpectedly fell by 0.2% in May, indicating potential issues such as global demand slowdown and reduced domestic investment [4][5]. Group 3: Geopolitical Risks - Escalating geopolitical tensions, especially between Israel and Iran, are contributing to a risk-averse sentiment among global investors, leading to increased demand for the U.S. dollar as a safe-haven asset [6][7]. - The complexity of the situation, including calls for ceasefires and strong statements from U.S. officials, adds to the uncertainty surrounding the geopolitical landscape [7]. Group 4: Dollar's Performance Outlook - The dollar may face significant downward pressure if the Federal Reserve adopts a more dovish stance, acknowledging increased economic risks and signaling potential rate cuts [3][9]. - Conversely, if the Fed maintains a cautious or neutral tone, the dollar could find support from its safe-haven status amid ongoing geopolitical risks [9][10]. - The dollar's future trajectory will depend on the balance between economic data, inflation outlook, external risks, and the Fed's policy objectives [10][11].
没有一个好消息
猫笔刀· 2025-01-12 14:21
看ip,刚到家,第一件事就是先想着上钟来了。 北京到临海有直达车,车程将近8小时,屁股都坐硬了,中间停靠的站点太多,乘坐体验很不好,但每天也就这么一班车没得选,每次到家都差不多晚上9 点半。 周末的新闻我倒是在车上大致看了一遍,就说几件最重要的事。 影响最大的是周五美国公布的非农就业数据很好,大超市场预期,严重削弱了美元在2025年的降息预期。我截一张国外下注网站的走势图给你们看看。 蓝线代表全年降息一次(0.25%),在周五经济数据公布后已经攀升至概率第一,有29%。红线代表全年降息两次(0.5%),之前一直概率领先,但周五 被蓝线反超,目前概率是21%。 央行这边也有一些应对,暂停买入国债操作,这让债券利率略有反弹,算是对冲了美元的强势冲击。 如果上面的内容你看着有点绕,我可以给一个简单粗暴的结论,这事偏利空,对全球资本市场,对港股都不是好消息,a股有外汇防火墙,影响会小一 点,但问题是a股现在自己正在闹腹泻,所以对周一不友好。 …… 周末重要的事就这一件,另外还有一些鸡零狗碎的,过一遍你有个印象就行。 1、财政部10日开了个国信办发布会,会上说了2025年赤字规模将有较大幅度增加,但是记者问具体数字的时 ...