Core Viewpoint - The US Dollar Index (DXY) has risen to a three-month high due to decreased market expectations for further immediate interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates as expected last week, but Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that another cut in December is not guaranteed [1] - Analysts from Monex Europe noted that the lack of new negative news has kept market volatility low while maintaining strong demand for the dollar [1] Group 2: Market Conditions - The ongoing government shutdown in the US has led to missing official data, with the October employment report likely to be delayed [1] - The absence of adverse news has contributed to a stable market environment, supporting the dollar's strength [1]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **AI Industry Trends**: Recent changes in the AI industry include price pressure on optical modules and declining profits for Oracle, which are significant variables affecting the sector. The performance of companies like Oracle and AMD highlights the competitive dynamics within the industry [1][2][3]. - **Market Performance**: The global capital market is currently performance-driven, with sectors like electronics and computing showing strong results, while traditional industries such as real estate are underperforming. The A-share market is characterized by extreme concentration, with the top 5% of companies accounting for over 45% of trading volume [1][2][3]. - **Gold Prices**: Gold prices are supported by expectations of a weaker dollar, but various factors, including global economic conditions and Federal Reserve policies, need to be monitored for future price movements [1][4][13]. Key Insights - **Sector Performance**: The electronics sector has seen a revenue growth rate of approximately 20%, the highest among all industries. In contrast, sectors like real estate and coal have shown poor performance [2][3]. - **AI Industry Leverage**: The AI industry exhibits a high degree of leverage, where small performance improvements can lead to significant market capitalization increases. Collaborations among major players like OpenAI, Nvidia, and Oracle are crucial for understanding market dynamics [1][8][9]. - **Copper Market Outlook**: The copper market is expected to remain bullish due to supply constraints and strong domestic consumption. The forecast for LME copper prices has been adjusted to $11,000 per ton, reflecting ongoing supply issues and demand growth [21][22][23]. Additional Considerations - **Market Concentration**: The A-share market's trading is excessively concentrated, indicating potential risks associated with market volatility driven by a few high-performing companies [2][3]. - **Investment Opportunities**: Beyond AI, sectors such as new consumption, innovative pharmaceuticals, and energy storage are identified as having significant investment potential in the medium to long term [15]. - **Global Economic Factors**: Political uncertainties and macroeconomic indicators are influencing market dynamics, with a focus on how these factors will affect risk assets and commodities like gold and copper [16][19][20]. Conclusion The conference call highlighted the significant shifts in the AI industry, the performance disparities across various sectors, and the implications of macroeconomic factors on investment strategies. The focus on high-performing sectors and the potential for future growth in emerging industries presents opportunities for investors to navigate the current market landscape effectively.

Report Information - Report Title: Zinc Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: September 12, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin, Yu Feifei [3][4] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The low PPI in the US since June has strengthened the expectation of interest rate cuts, leading to a decline in the US dollar. The main contract of Shanghai zinc closed at 22,250 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan or 0.36%, with increased volume and decreased positions. The domestic fundamental weakness remains unchanged, and it will take time for the consumer side to improve. The inflection point of social inventory reduction has not appeared, and Shanghai zinc fluctuates in the middle and lower tracks of the Bollinger Bands [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - US PPI hit a new low since June, strengthening the expectation of interest rate cuts and causing the US dollar to fall. The main contract of Shanghai zinc closed at 22,250 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan or 0.36%, with increased volume and decreased positions. The 09 - 10 spread was -65 yuan/ton. In August, the refined zinc output was 626,200 tons, a year-on-year increase of 28.7%. The refined zinc output in September was slightly adjusted down but is still expected to be above 600,000 tons. The logistics and production restrictions in North and Central China have been lifted, and the galvanizing start - up rate is expected to increase month - on - month. The inventory in Tianjin has decreased slightly, while the inventory in Shanghai and Guangdong has increased. The total social inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions has increased by 0.21 million tons to 15.42 million tons. LME zinc inventory has decreased by 200 tons to 50,825 tons. The concern about overseas refined zinc supply has caused a spot premium, and the 0 - 3B has strengthened to $23.01/ton, supporting LME zinc [7]. 2. Industry News - On September 11, 2025, the mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc was concentrated between 22,205 - 22,265 yuan/ton, and that of Shuangyan was between 22,325 - 22,385 yuan/ton. The mainstream transaction price of 1 zinc was between 22,135 - 22,195 yuan/ton. In the morning, the market quoted a premium of 30 - 40 yuan/ton over the SMM average price. In the second trading session, the ordinary domestic zinc was quoted at a discount of 20 yuan/ton to the 2510 contract, Honglu - v was at par with the 2510 contract, Huize was at a premium of 60 yuan/ton to the 2510 contract, and the high - end brand Shuangyan was at a premium of 100 yuan/ton to the 2510 contract [8]. - In the Ningbo market, the mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc was around 22,205 - 22,255 yuan/ton. The regular brands in Ningbo were quoted at a discount of 35 yuan/ton to the 2510 contract and at a premium of 30 yuan/ton to the Shanghai spot price. In the first trading period, Qilin was quoted at a premium of 10 yuan/ton to the 2510 contract, Anning was at a discount of 30 - 20 yuan/ton to the 2510 contract, Honglu - v was at par with the 2510 contract, and Jiulong was quoted at a discount of 10 yuan/ton to the 2510 contract for delivery [8]. - In the Tianjin market, the mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc ingots was between 22,150 - 22,240 yuan/ton, and that of Zijin was between 22,200 - 22,260 yuan/ton. The transaction price of 1 zinc ingots was around 22,110 - 22,170 yuan/ton, and the price of Huludao was 22,980 yuan/ton. The ordinary 0 zinc was quoted at a discount of 40 - 80 yuan/ton to the 2510 contract, and Zijin was at a discount of 20 - 30 yuan/ton to the 2510 contract. The Tianjin market was at a discount of about 20 yuan/ton compared to the Shanghai market [8]. - In Guangdong, the mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc was between 22,090 - 22,190 yuan/ton. The mainstream brands were quoted at a discount of 105 yuan/ton to the 2510 contract and at a discount of 40 yuan/ton to the Shanghai spot price. The price difference between Shanghai and Guangdong has widened [9]. 3. Data Overview - The report provides figures on the price trends of zinc in two markets, the SHFE monthly spread, the weekly inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots, and LME zinc inventory, with data sources including Wind and SMM, and the research and development department of Jianxin Futures [13][14]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - During the week from August 18th to 22nd, at the Jackson Hole Central Bank Annual Meeting, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell released a dovish signal, causing the expectation of a September US dollar interest rate cut to rise. The US and the EU reached an agreement on the trade agreement framework, and the US dollar index declined weekly. Globally, stocks were divided, while bonds and commodities rose, with commodities > bonds > stocks in terms of US - dollar - denominated performance. In China, the stock market rose, while the bond and commodity markets were weak, with stocks > bonds > commodities. Liquidity and policy expectations resonated, driving the rise of the domestic equity market. With the Fed releasing a rate - cut signal, the subsequent market sentiment changes should be monitored [3][6][20]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Global Major Asset Overall Performance: Stocks Divided, Bonds and Commodities Rising - **Global Stock Market Overview**: Due to the uncertainty of the market regarding Powell's speech, the global stock market first declined and then rose. European stocks had the highest increase, and emerging markets underperformed developed markets. The VIX index continued to fluctuate at a low level. For example, MSCI Europe rose 1.42% weekly, while MSCI Asia - Pacific fell 0.56% [7][11][13]. - **Global Bond Market Overview**: Powell signaled a cautious US dollar interest rate cut. His statement made it difficult for Fed officials to reach a broad policy consensus. The yields of medium - and long - term US bonds generally declined, with the 10 - year US bond yield dropping 7BP to 4.26% weekly. Globally, credit bonds > high - yield bonds > government bonds [15]. - **Global Foreign Exchange Market Overview**: The preliminary value of the US Markit Manufacturing PMI in August was better than expected and the previous value. The expectation of a September interest rate cut led to a 0.12% weekly decline in the US dollar index. Major non - US currencies against the US dollar had mixed performances, and the RMB exchange rate was oscillating strongly [17]. - **Global Commodity Market Overview**: The expectation of a US dollar interest rate cut weakened the US dollar index, promoting the rise of the international commodity market. Major industrial products and agricultural products generally rose [19]. 3.2 Domestic Major Asset Performance: Stock Market Rising, Bond and Commodity Markets Weak - **Domestic Stock Market Overview**: The positive momentum of market risk appetite remained unchanged. Major broad - based A - share indexes generally rose, and the average daily trading volume of the two markets increased compared to the previous week. The growth style was more prominent, and the communication and electronics sectors had the highest increases, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 3.49% weekly [21]. - **Domestic Bond Market Overview**: The central bank's net investment in the open - market operations was 126.52 billion yuan. The capital supply tightened, and the bond market declined weekly. Overall, corporate bonds > credit bonds > government bonds [23]. - **Domestic Commodity Market Overview**: The domestic commodity market declined weekly. Among major commodity sectors, the energy sector rose, while the black sector performed poorly. For example, the Nanhua Commodity Index fell 0.44% weekly [25]. 3.3 Major Asset Price Outlook - Pay attention to the sentiment changes in the domestic equity market. The resonance of liquidity and policy expectations drove the rise of the domestic equity market. Coupled with the Fed's rate - cut signal, monitor the subsequent market sentiment changes [26].

Core Insights - The return of carry trades is driven by expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, a weaker dollar, and higher interest rates in emerging markets [1][2][3] - Significant inflows into emerging market bonds have been observed, with a weekly inflow of $1.7 billion as of August 6 [1] - Eighteen out of twenty-three major emerging market currencies have appreciated against the dollar this year, indicating a favorable environment for investments in these markets [1] Group 1: Carry Trade Dynamics - Carry trade involves borrowing in low-interest currencies (like the dollar) and investing in high-interest currencies (like those in Brazil and Mexico) to earn interest rate differentials [2] - The attractiveness of carry trades has increased due to weak U.S. employment data, which has fueled expectations for a Fed rate cut, thereby reducing the cost of borrowing in dollars [3] - Emerging market central banks are maintaining or raising interest rates to combat inflation, with Brazil's rate at 15% and Colombia's at 9.25%, creating significant interest rate differentials [3] Group 2: Market Conditions - Reduced market volatility has made carry trades less risky, with the gap in expected volatility between emerging market currencies and G10 currencies at a 12-year high [3] - Latin American currencies are particularly benefiting from carry trades, with a carry yield of 3.7%, compared to 1.1% in Europe and Africa, and -1.1% in Asia [4] - Investors are showing increased bullish sentiment towards the Mexican peso, with leveraged funds' bullish bets reaching a one-year high following the central bank's decision to slow down monetary easing [4] Group 3: Future Considerations - While the current environment favors carry trades, some investors are locking in profits due to concerns over potential economic impacts from U.S. tariff policies and upcoming inflation data releases [4]

Group 1 - The recent trend of a weakening US dollar has become more pronounced, particularly after July's employment data fell short of expectations, leading to increased market bets on interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year [1][3] - The US dollar index dropped by 0.56%, reaching a new low since the end of July, reflecting deepening investor concerns about the US economic outlook [1][3] - The weak labor market and poor performance in Treasury bond auctions are contributing factors to the dollar's decline, indicating growing economic pressures [1][3] Group 2 - July's employment growth in the US was below expectations, and previous months' non-farm payroll data was significantly revised down, acting as a catalyst for shifting market expectations towards monetary easing [3] - The euro has emerged as the biggest beneficiary of the dollar's adjustment, with the euro to dollar exchange rate rising to 1.1662, the highest in nearly a week, due to a relatively stable policy path from the European Central Bank [3][4] - The Japanese yen has weakened, falling below 147 yen to the dollar, as concerns about US tariffs impact Japan's economy, suggesting a cautious stance from the Bank of Japan regarding interest rate decisions [3][4] Group 3 - Switzerland is actively pursuing a trade agreement with the US to avoid high tariffs on exports, which has positively influenced the Swiss franc despite a slight decline against the dollar [4] - The current weakening of the dollar reflects changes in economic fundamentals and market adjustments to the Federal Reserve's future policy path [4] - Future economic data and geopolitical developments will continue to evolve, necessitating close monitoring of Federal Reserve statements and global macro events that influence market sentiment [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - From June 23 to June 27, 2025, with the significant easing of the Middle - East geopolitical situation and the US "Big and Beautiful" bill passing the Senate's procedural vote, the dollar index declined weekly. Globally, stocks and bonds rose while commodities fell significantly. In China, the stock market rose, the bond market fluctuated, and commodities declined. The market's focus shifted to the global macro - economy, and attention should be paid to the progress of US tariff negotiations as the 90 - day tariff exemption period approaches its end [3][6][26] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Global Major Asset Overall Performance: Stocks and Bonds Rise, Commodities Fall Significantly - **Global Stock Market Overview: Major Stock Markets Rise Universally** - From June 23 to June 27, the cooling of risk - aversion sentiment boosted equity assets. Major global stock markets generally rose, with US stocks leading in gains. Emerging markets underperformed developed markets, and the VIX index remained low. For example, MSCI US rose 3.45% weekly, MSCI Europe rose 3.04%, and MSCI Asia - Pacific rose 3.15% [8][11][12] - **Global Bond Market Overview: Expectations of Dollar Interest Rate Cuts Increase** - Fed Chairman Powell's remarks in the congressional hearing raised expectations of dollar interest rate cuts, causing the yields of medium - and long - term US bonds to decline. The 10 - year US bond yield dropped 9BP to 4.29% weekly. Globally, high - yield bonds > credit bonds > government bonds. For instance, the global high - yield bond index rose 1.10% weekly [15] - **Global Foreign Exchange Market Overview: The Dollar Index Declines Weekly** - Due to the decline in market risk - aversion sentiment and the increase in expectations of dollar interest rate cuts, the dollar index dropped significantly, once falling below the 97 - integer mark. Most non - US currencies appreciated against the dollar, and the RMB exchange rate rose. The dollar index fell 1.52% weekly [16] - **Global Commodity Market Overview: International Oil Prices Drop Sharply** - The easing of geopolitical tensions led to a significant weekly decline in international oil prices and a subsequent correction in international gold prices. Most major agricultural products fell, while non - ferrous metal prices rose. For example, the S&P GSCI Energy Index dropped 10.69% weekly [19][20] 3.2 Domestic Major Asset Performance: Stock Market Rises, Bond Market Fluctuates, Commodities Fall - **Domestic Stock Market Overview: Major A - share Broad - based Indexes Rise Weekly** - With the easing of international geopolitical conflicts, major A - share broad - based indexes rose. The average daily trading volume of the two markets increased compared to the previous week. Growth - style stocks performed outstandingly. Sectors such as comprehensive finance and computer led in gains, while the petroleum and petrochemical sector performed poorly. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.91% weekly [22] - **Domestic Bond Market Overview: The Bond Market Fluctuates Narrowly** - From June 23 to June 27, the central bank's net injection in the open - market operations was 126.72 billion yuan. The capital situation was relatively stable overall. The bond market fluctuated weakly. Generally, credit bonds > corporate bonds > government bonds. For example, the ChinaBond Credit Bond Total Wealth (Aggregate) Index rose 0.02% weekly [23] - **Domestic Commodity Market Overview: The Commodity Market Drops Significantly** - The domestic commodity market declined overall. Among major commodity sectors, non - ferrous metals led in gains, while the energy sector performed poorly. For example, the Nanhua Non - Ferrous Metals Index rose 2.71% weekly, while the Nanhua Energy Index dropped 8.78% weekly [24] 3.3 Major Asset Price Outlook: Pay Attention to the Progress of US Tariff Policy - The market's focus has shifted to the global macro - economy. As the 90 - day US tariff exemption period nears its end, attention should be paid to the progress of tariff negotiations [26]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting is pivotal for the U.S. dollar's direction, influenced by economic data, interest rate expectations, and geopolitical risks [10]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Expectations - The market anticipates the Federal Reserve will maintain the federal funds rate at its current level during the June meeting, with a nearly 80% probability of a rate cut in September [2][3]. - The market is eager for forward guidance from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) regarding the economic outlook and future policy direction [2][3]. Group 2: Economic Data Impact - Recent economic data, particularly a 0.9% decline in retail sales in May, signals weakening consumer spending, which constitutes about 70% of U.S. economic activity [4][5]. - Industrial production also unexpectedly fell by 0.2% in May, indicating potential issues such as global demand slowdown and reduced domestic investment [4][5]. Group 3: Geopolitical Risks - Escalating geopolitical tensions, especially between Israel and Iran, are contributing to a risk-averse sentiment among global investors, leading to increased demand for the U.S. dollar as a safe-haven asset [6][7]. - The complexity of the situation, including calls for ceasefires and strong statements from U.S. officials, adds to the uncertainty surrounding the geopolitical landscape [7]. Group 4: Dollar's Performance Outlook - The dollar may face significant downward pressure if the Federal Reserve adopts a more dovish stance, acknowledging increased economic risks and signaling potential rate cuts [3][9]. - Conversely, if the Fed maintains a cautious or neutral tone, the dollar could find support from its safe-haven status amid ongoing geopolitical risks [9][10]. - The dollar's future trajectory will depend on the balance between economic data, inflation outlook, external risks, and the Fed's policy objectives [10][11].

看ip，刚到家，第一件事就是先想着上钟来了。 北京到临海有直达车，车程将近8小时，屁股都坐硬了，中间停靠的站点太多，乘坐体验很不好，但每天也就这么一班车没得选，每次到家都差不多晚上9 点半。 周末的新闻我倒是在车上大致看了一遍，就说几件最重要的事。 影响最大的是周五美国公布的非农就业数据很好，大超市场预期，严重削弱了美元在2025年的降息预期。我截一张国外下注网站的走势图给你们看看。 蓝线代表全年降息一次（0.25%），在周五经济数据公布后已经攀升至概率第一，有29%。红线代表全年降息两次（0.5%），之前一直概率领先，但周五 被蓝线反超，目前概率是21%。 央行这边也有一些应对，暂停买入国债操作，这让债券利率略有反弹，算是对冲了美元的强势冲击。 如果上面的内容你看着有点绕，我可以给一个简单粗暴的结论，这事偏利空，对全球资本市场，对港股都不是好消息，a股有外汇防火墙，影响会小一 点，但问题是a股现在自己正在闹腹泻，所以对周一不友好。 …… 周末重要的事就这一件，另外还有一些鸡零狗碎的，过一遍你有个印象就行。 1、财政部10日开了个国信办发布会，会上说了2025年赤字规模将有较大幅度增加，但是记者问具体数字的时 ...