Tabl e_Title 2025 年 8 月 25 日 大类资产运行周报（202500818-20250822） 风险提示：美国通胀数据改善不及预期 大类资产运行报告 全球主要资产表现 | | 近一周变动 | | --- | --- | | 新兴市场股市指数 | -0.46% | | Table_Fi rstSto ck 发达市场股市指数 主要资产涨跌幅表现 | 0.44% | | 全球债券指数 | 0.16% | | 全球国债指数 | 0.08% | | 全球信用债指数 姓名 | 0.26% | | 美元指数 | 分析师 -0.12% SAC 执业证书编号：S1111111111111 | | | Xxxxxx @essence.com.cn | | RJ/CRB 商品价格指数 | 1.51% | | | 021-68767839 | | 标普高盛商品全收益指数 | 2.12% | 丁沛舟 高级分析师 期货从业资格号：F3002969 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0012005 dingpz@essence.com.cn 010-58747724 相关报告 大类资产运行周报（20250602 -20250606 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - From June 23 to June 27, 2025, with the significant easing of the Middle - East geopolitical situation and the US "Big and Beautiful" bill passing the Senate's procedural vote, the dollar index declined weekly. Globally, stocks and bonds rose while commodities fell significantly. In China, the stock market rose, the bond market fluctuated, and commodities declined. The market's focus shifted to the global macro - economy, and attention should be paid to the progress of US tariff negotiations as the 90 - day tariff exemption period approaches its end [3][6][26] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Global Major Asset Overall Performance: Stocks and Bonds Rise, Commodities Fall Significantly - **Global Stock Market Overview: Major Stock Markets Rise Universally** - From June 23 to June 27, the cooling of risk - aversion sentiment boosted equity assets. Major global stock markets generally rose, with US stocks leading in gains. Emerging markets underperformed developed markets, and the VIX index remained low. For example, MSCI US rose 3.45% weekly, MSCI Europe rose 3.04%, and MSCI Asia - Pacific rose 3.15% [8][11][12] - **Global Bond Market Overview: Expectations of Dollar Interest Rate Cuts Increase** - Fed Chairman Powell's remarks in the congressional hearing raised expectations of dollar interest rate cuts, causing the yields of medium - and long - term US bonds to decline. The 10 - year US bond yield dropped 9BP to 4.29% weekly. Globally, high - yield bonds > credit bonds > government bonds. For instance, the global high - yield bond index rose 1.10% weekly [15] - **Global Foreign Exchange Market Overview: The Dollar Index Declines Weekly** - Due to the decline in market risk - aversion sentiment and the increase in expectations of dollar interest rate cuts, the dollar index dropped significantly, once falling below the 97 - integer mark. Most non - US currencies appreciated against the dollar, and the RMB exchange rate rose. The dollar index fell 1.52% weekly [16] - **Global Commodity Market Overview: International Oil Prices Drop Sharply** - The easing of geopolitical tensions led to a significant weekly decline in international oil prices and a subsequent correction in international gold prices. Most major agricultural products fell, while non - ferrous metal prices rose. For example, the S&P GSCI Energy Index dropped 10.69% weekly [19][20] 3.2 Domestic Major Asset Performance: Stock Market Rises, Bond Market Fluctuates, Commodities Fall - **Domestic Stock Market Overview: Major A - share Broad - based Indexes Rise Weekly** - With the easing of international geopolitical conflicts, major A - share broad - based indexes rose. The average daily trading volume of the two markets increased compared to the previous week. Growth - style stocks performed outstandingly. Sectors such as comprehensive finance and computer led in gains, while the petroleum and petrochemical sector performed poorly. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.91% weekly [22] - **Domestic Bond Market Overview: The Bond Market Fluctuates Narrowly** - From June 23 to June 27, the central bank's net injection in the open - market operations was 126.72 billion yuan. The capital situation was relatively stable overall. The bond market fluctuated weakly. Generally, credit bonds > corporate bonds > government bonds. For example, the ChinaBond Credit Bond Total Wealth (Aggregate) Index rose 0.02% weekly [23] - **Domestic Commodity Market Overview: The Commodity Market Drops Significantly** - The domestic commodity market declined overall. Among major commodity sectors, non - ferrous metals led in gains, while the energy sector performed poorly. For example, the Nanhua Non - Ferrous Metals Index rose 2.71% weekly, while the Nanhua Energy Index dropped 8.78% weekly [24] 3.3 Major Asset Price Outlook: Pay Attention to the Progress of US Tariff Policy - The market's focus has shifted to the global macro - economy. As the 90 - day US tariff exemption period nears its end, attention should be paid to the progress of tariff negotiations [26]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting is pivotal for the U.S. dollar's direction, influenced by economic data, interest rate expectations, and geopolitical risks [10]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Expectations - The market anticipates the Federal Reserve will maintain the federal funds rate at its current level during the June meeting, with a nearly 80% probability of a rate cut in September [2][3]. - The market is eager for forward guidance from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) regarding the economic outlook and future policy direction [2][3]. Group 2: Economic Data Impact - Recent economic data, particularly a 0.9% decline in retail sales in May, signals weakening consumer spending, which constitutes about 70% of U.S. economic activity [4][5]. - Industrial production also unexpectedly fell by 0.2% in May, indicating potential issues such as global demand slowdown and reduced domestic investment [4][5]. Group 3: Geopolitical Risks - Escalating geopolitical tensions, especially between Israel and Iran, are contributing to a risk-averse sentiment among global investors, leading to increased demand for the U.S. dollar as a safe-haven asset [6][7]. - The complexity of the situation, including calls for ceasefires and strong statements from U.S. officials, adds to the uncertainty surrounding the geopolitical landscape [7]. Group 4: Dollar's Performance Outlook - The dollar may face significant downward pressure if the Federal Reserve adopts a more dovish stance, acknowledging increased economic risks and signaling potential rate cuts [3][9]. - Conversely, if the Fed maintains a cautious or neutral tone, the dollar could find support from its safe-haven status amid ongoing geopolitical risks [9][10]. - The dollar's future trajectory will depend on the balance between economic data, inflation outlook, external risks, and the Fed's policy objectives [10][11].

看ip，刚到家，第一件事就是先想着上钟来了。 北京到临海有直达车，车程将近8小时，屁股都坐硬了，中间停靠的站点太多，乘坐体验很不好，但每天也就这么一班车没得选，每次到家都差不多晚上9 点半。 周末的新闻我倒是在车上大致看了一遍，就说几件最重要的事。 影响最大的是周五美国公布的非农就业数据很好，大超市场预期，严重削弱了美元在2025年的降息预期。我截一张国外下注网站的走势图给你们看看。 蓝线代表全年降息一次（0.25%），在周五经济数据公布后已经攀升至概率第一，有29%。红线代表全年降息两次（0.5%），之前一直概率领先，但周五 被蓝线反超，目前概率是21%。 央行这边也有一些应对，暂停买入国债操作，这让债券利率略有反弹，算是对冲了美元的强势冲击。 如果上面的内容你看着有点绕，我可以给一个简单粗暴的结论，这事偏利空，对全球资本市场，对港股都不是好消息，a股有外汇防火墙，影响会小一 点，但问题是a股现在自己正在闹腹泻，所以对周一不友好。 …… 周末重要的事就这一件，另外还有一些鸡零狗碎的，过一遍你有个印象就行。 1、财政部10日开了个国信办发布会，会上说了2025年赤字规模将有较大幅度增加，但是记者问具体数字的时 ...