Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Rapeseed meal RM2509 is expected to fluctuate within the range of 2620 - 2680. It is influenced by factors such as the soybean meal trend, low rapeseed meal inventory, and the tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes. In the short - term, it will maintain a range - bound oscillation [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tip - Rapeseed meal RM2509 fluctuates in the range of 2620 - 2680. It is affected by soybean meal trends, low oil mill operation rate, low inventory, and tariff policies. The current situation is neutral, but there are multi - faceted influencing factors [9]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the peak season, improving the supply - tightness expectation in the spot market. - Canadian rapeseed annual production decreased slightly, and China has imposed additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes. The anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is ongoing. - Global rapeseed production decreased slightly this year due to reduced production in the EU and lower - than - expected production in Canada. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, and the future increase in global geopolitical conflicts may support commodities [11]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - **Bullish**: China's additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes; low inventory pressure on oil mill rapeseed meal [12]. - **Bearish**: Domestic rapeseed was listed in June; the outcome of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is uncertain, and rapeseed meal demand is in the seasonal off - season [13]. - **Main Logic**: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the Canadian rapeseed tariff war. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Price and Spread**: From July 3 to 14, the average price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated, with the lowest being 341 on July 14. Rapeseed meal futures and spot prices showed an upward trend, and the spot price discount remained relatively high [14][16]. - **Inventory**: Rapeseed meal inventory was 0.46 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 58.18% and a year - on - year decrease of 84.67%. The import volume of rapeseed in July was lower than expected, and the inventory of oil mill rapeseed decreased slightly, while the rapeseed meal inventory remained low [9][27][29]. - **Supply and Demand Balance**: Data from 2014 - 2023 on domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal supply - demand balance sheets show changes in various supply and demand indicators over the years, such as production, consumption, and inventory [25][26]. 3.5 Position Data - The long positions of the main players increased, and capital flowed in, indicating a bullish sentiment [9]. 3.6 Rapeseed Meal Views and Strategies - **Fundamentals**: Rapeseed meal is affected by soybean meal trends, low oil mill operation rate, and low inventory. The short - term demand for rapeseed meal spot has entered the peak season, and the import volume of rapeseed has increased, but the oil mill inventory has no short - term pressure. The tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes is a short - term positive factor, but the positive effect may be limited [9]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 2560, and the basis is - 99, indicating a discount to the futures, which is bearish [9]. - **Inventory**: The inventory is 0.46 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 58.18% and a year - on - year decrease of 84.67%, which is bullish [9]. - **Market**: The price is above the 20 - day moving average but moving downward, showing a neutral trend [9]. - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main players increased, and capital flowed in, which is bullish [9]. - **Expectation**: In the short - term, rapeseed meal is affected by low imported rapeseed inventory and the tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes, causing the price to rise and then fall. With the influence of soybean meal, the price will return to a range - bound oscillation [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Rapeseed meal RM2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2580 - 2640. It is affected by factors such as soybean meal trends, low rapeseed meal inventory, and the tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes. The short - term outlook is for range - bound trading [9]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - No information provided 2. Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the peak season, improving the supply - tightness expectation in the spot market while demand remains strong [11]. - Canadian rapeseed annual production decreased slightly, supporting the overseas futures market. China has imposed tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes, and the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is ongoing with uncertain results [11]. - Global rapeseed production decreased slightly this year, mainly due to reduced production in the EU and lower - than - expected production in Canada [11]. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, with the decrease in Ukrainian rapeseed production offset by the increase in Russian production. Global geopolitical conflicts may still rise, providing support for commodities [11]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - **Bullish Factors**: China's tariff on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes, and low inventory pressure on oil mills' rapeseed meal [12]. - **Bearish Factors**: Domestic rapeseed was listed in June, and there is uncertainty in the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports. Rapeseed meal demand is in the seasonal off - season [13]. - **Main Logic**: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the Canadian rapeseed tariff war [13]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Supply and Demand Balance Sheets**: Domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal supply - demand balance sheets from 2014 - 2023 are provided, showing changes in harvest area, production, inventory, and other indicators over the years [25][26]. - **Price and Transaction Data**: Data on the average transaction price and volume of soybean meal and rapeseed meal from July 2 to July 11 are presented, along with the price spread between them. Also, rapeseed meal futures and spot prices from July 3 to July 11 are provided [14][16]. - **Other Data**: Imported rapeseed arrivals in July were lower than expected, with slightly fluctuating import costs. Oil mill rapeseed inventory decreased slightly, while rapeseed meal inventory remained low. Oil mill rapeseed crushing volume fluctuated slightly. Aquatic fish prices fluctuated slightly, and shrimp and shellfish prices remained stable [27][29][39]. 5. Position Data - No information provided 6. Rapeseed Meal Views and Strategies - **Fundamentals**: Rapeseed meal rebounded with fluctuations, influenced by soybean meal trends and technical consolidation. Low oil mill operation rates and low rapeseed meal inventory support the market. Short - term demand for rapeseed meal is in the peak season. Although the arrival of imported rapeseed has increased, oil mill inventory has no short - term pressure. The short - term outlook is for range - bound trading. China's tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes is a short - term positive, but the impact may be limited due to the lack of tariffs on rapeseed imports [9]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 2520, and the basis is - 113, indicating a discount to the futures, which is bearish [9]. - **Inventory**: Rapeseed meal inventory is 0.46 tons, down 58.18% week - on - week from 1.1 tons last week and 84.67% year - on - year from 3 tons last year, which is bullish [9]. - **Disk**: The price is above the 20 - day moving average but moving downward, which is neutral [9]. - **Main Position**: The main long positions decreased, and funds flowed out, which is bullish [9]. - **Expectation**: In the short term, rapeseed meal prices rose and then fell due to low imported rapeseed inventory and the tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes. Influenced by soybean meal, rapeseed meal prices are expected to return to range - bound trading [9].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Rapeseed meal RM2509 is expected to oscillate in the range of 2600 - 2660. Influenced by the low inventory of imported rapeseed and the tariff increase on Canadian oil residue cakes, the price may rise and then fall, and return to the range oscillation in the short - term due to the impact of soybean meal [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - Rapeseed meal is oscillating and rising, driven by soybean meal and technical consolidation. The low operation rate of rapeseed meal oil mills and low inventory support the market. The short - term demand for rapeseed meal is in the peak season. Although the arrival of imported rapeseed increases, the short - term inventory of oil mills is under no pressure. The tariff increase on Canadian oil residue cakes is a short - term positive factor, but the positive effect may be limited as there is no tariff increase on rapeseed imports [9]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the peak season, improving the supply shortage expectation in the spot market while maintaining good demand expectations. The slight decrease in Canada's annual rapeseed production supports the foreign futures market. China has imposed additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes, and the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is still ongoing. The global rapeseed production has slightly decreased this year, mainly due to the reduction in the EU and Canada. The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, and the global geopolitical conflict may still rise, which supports commodities [11]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Concerns - **Bullish factors**: China's additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes; low inventory pressure of rapeseed meal in oil mills [12]. - **Bearish factors**: The listing of domestic rapeseed in June; the uncertainty of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports and the seasonal off - peak demand for rapeseed meal [13]. - **Main logic**: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Base difference**: The spot price is 2520, and the base difference is - 91, indicating a discount to the futures, which is bearish [9]. - **Inventory**: Rapeseed meal inventory is 0.46 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 58.18% from last week's 1.1 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 84.67% compared with 3 tons in the same period last year, which is bullish [9]. - **Market trend**: The price is above the 20 - day moving average but moving downward, showing a neutral trend [9]. - **Supply - demand balance sheets**: The report provides the domestic rapeseed supply - demand balance sheet and the domestic rapeseed meal supply - demand balance sheet from 2014 to 2023, including data such as harvest area, inventory, production, and consumption [25][26]. - **Import situation**: The arrival volume of imported rapeseed in July is lower than expected, and the import cost fluctuates slightly [27]. - **Inventory situation**: The rapeseed inventory of oil mills has rebounded from a low level, and the rapeseed meal inventory remains low. The rapeseed crushing volume of oil mills has slightly decreased [29][31]. 3.5 Position Data - The main long positions have increased, and capital has flowed in, which is bullish [9]. 3.6 Rapeseed Meal Views and Strategies - Rapeseed meal RM2509 is expected to oscillate between 2600 - 2660. In the short - term, it may rise and then fall due to the low inventory of imported rapeseed and the tariff increase on Canadian oil residue cakes, and return to the range oscillation under the influence of soybean meal [9].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views - Rapeseed meal RM2509 is expected to oscillate in the range of 2540 - 2600. The market is influenced by factors such as soybean meal trends, low rapeseed meal inventory, and the import tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes. The overall outlook is neutral [9]. - The short - term outlook for rapeseed meal is that it will return to range - bound trading due to the low inventory of imported rapeseed and the tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes, along with the influence of soybean meal [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - Rapeseed meal RM2509 will oscillate in the 2540 - 2600 range. Influential factors include soybean meal trends, low oil mill operation rate, low rapeseed meal inventory, and the tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes. The current status is neutral [9]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the peak season, and the supply - tightness expectation in the spot market has improved. The demand side maintains a good outlook [11]. - The annual production of Canadian rapeseed has slightly decreased, supporting the foreign futures market. China has imposed additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes, and the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is still ongoing [11]. - Global rapeseed production has slightly decreased this year, mainly due to the reduction in EU rapeseed production and lower - than - expected Canadian rapeseed production [11]. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, with the decrease in Ukrainian rapeseed production offset by the increase in Russian rapeseed production. There is a possibility of an escalation in global geopolitical conflicts, which may support commodities [11]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - **Bullish factors**: China's additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes; low inventory pressure on oil mills' rapeseed meal [12]. - **Bearish factors**: The listing of domestic rapeseed in June; the uncertainty of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports and the seasonal off - peak demand for rapeseed meal [13]. - **Main logic**: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the Canadian rapeseed tariff war [13]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Price and basis**: Spot price is 2500, basis is - 86, indicating a discount to the futures price, which is bearish [9]. - **Inventory**: Rapeseed meal inventory is 0.46 tons, down 58.18% week - on - week from 1.1 tons last week and 84.67% year - on - year from 3 tons in the same period last year, which is bullish [9]. - **Market trend**: The price is below the 20 - day moving average and the direction is downward, which is bearish [9]. - **Supply - demand balance sheets**: The report provides domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal supply - demand balance sheets from 2014 - 2023, including data on harvest area, inventory, production, consumption, etc. [25][26]. 3.5 Position Data - The main long positions have increased, but the funds have flowed out, which is bullish [9]. 3.6 Rapeseed Meal Price and Inventory - Rapeseed meal futures and spot prices have been summarized, showing that the spot price has followed the futures price with small fluctuations, and the spot discount has remained at a relatively high level [16][20]. - The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal has slightly narrowed, and the price difference of the 2509 contract has remained volatile [22]. - The rapeseed import volume in July was lower than expected, and the import cost fluctuated slightly [27]. - The oil mill's rapeseed inventory has rebounded from a low level, while the rapeseed meal inventory has remained low [29]. - The oil mill's rapeseed crushing volume has slightly decreased [31]. 3.7 Aquaculture Production and Price - The report provides data on China's aquatic product and fish production, shellfish and shrimp - crab production, and OECD's forecast of China's fish production and imports [33][35][37]. - Aquatic fish prices have fluctuated slightly, while shrimp and shellfish prices have remained stable [39].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Rapeseed meal RM2509 is expected to oscillate in the range of 2540 - 2600. It is affected by factors such as soybean meal trends, low rapeseed meal inventory, short - term peak demand, increased imports of Canadian rapeseed, and the tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes. In the short term, it will maintain a range - bound oscillation [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - Rapeseed meal RM2509 is in the 2540 - 2600 range. The fundamentals show that it is affected by soybean meal trends and technical adjustments. Low oil - mill开机, low inventory support the market. Spot demand is in the short - term peak season, and the increase in imported rapeseed arrivals has no short - term pressure on oil - mill inventory. The tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes is a short - term positive, but the positive effect may be limited. The basis is at a discount, inventory has decreased significantly, the price is below the 20 - day moving average, the main long positions have decreased but funds have flowed in. In the short term, it is expected to return to the range - bound oscillation after a short - term rise and fall [9]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the peak season, and the listing of domestic rapeseed has improved the expected tight supply in the spot market while demand maintains a good outlook. - The slight decrease in Canada's rapeseed annual output supports the foreign futures market. China has imposed tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes, and the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is still ongoing with uncertain results. - Global rapeseed production has decreased slightly this year, mainly due to the decline in EU rapeseed production and Canada's lower - than - expected output. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, and the decrease in Ukraine's rapeseed production and the increase in Russia's production offset each other. There is still a possibility of an increase in global geopolitical conflicts, which supports commodities [11]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - **Bullish**: China has imposed tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes, and oil - mill rapeseed meal inventory pressure is not large [12]. - **Bearish**: Domestic rapeseed was listed in June, and the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is still uncertain. Rapeseed meal demand is in the seasonal off - season. The current main logic is that the market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expected tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [13]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Trading Data**: From June 27 to July 8, the average trading price of soybean meal fluctuated around 2900, and the trading volume varied. The average trading price of rapeseed meal was mostly 2500, and the trading volume was relatively small. The average price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal gradually narrowed [14]. - **Price Data**: From June 30 to July 8, the prices of rapeseed meal futures (main 2509 and far - month 2601) and spot prices (in Fujian) fluctuated slightly. The spot price was mostly 2500, and the futures price was around 2500 - 2600 [16]. - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: From June 26 to July 8, rapeseed meal warehouse receipts generally showed a decreasing trend, with an increase on July 8 [17]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The domestic rapeseed supply - demand balance sheet from 2014 - 2023 shows changes in harvest area, output, supply, demand, and inventory. The domestic rapeseed meal supply - demand balance sheet from 2014 - 2023 shows the situation of production, demand, and inventory [25][26]. 3.5 Position Data - No specific position data analysis content is provided. Only mentioned that the main long positions have decreased and funds have flowed in [9]. 3.6 Other Market Conditions - The arrival volume of imported rapeseed in July is lower than expected, and the import cost fluctuates slightly. - Oil - mill rapeseed inventory has rebounded from a low level, and rapeseed meal inventory remains low. - Oil - mill rapeseed crushing volume has decreased slightly. - Aquatic fish prices fluctuate slightly, and shrimp and shellfish prices remain stable [27][29][31][39].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Rapeseed meal RM2509 fluctuates in the range of 2600 - 2660. It is affected by soybean meal trends, technical consolidation, low oil - mill开机 rates, and low inventory. The short - term spot demand is in the peak season, and the import of Canadian rapeseed increases, but the oil - mill inventory has no short - term pressure. The short - term trend is slightly bullish, but the impact of the tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes is limited. In the short term, it may return to range - bound trading [9]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - Not provided in the report 2. Recent News - Domestic aquaculture is recovering from the off - season, with tight spot supply and rising demand [11]. - Canadian rapeseed annual production has a slight decrease, supporting the foreign futures. China has imposed additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes, and the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is still ongoing [11]. - Global rapeseed production has a slight decrease this year, mainly due to reduced production in the EU and lower - than - expected production in Canada [11]. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict is still ongoing, with the decrease in Ukrainian rapeseed production and the increase in Russian production offsetting each other. Global geopolitical conflicts may rise, which may support commodities [11]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors Bullish - China has imposed additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes [12]. - Oil - mill rapeseed meal inventory pressure is not large [12]. Bearish - Domestic rapeseed was listed in June [13]. - The result of China's anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is uncertain, and rapeseed meal demand is in the seasonal off - season [13]. Current Main Logic - The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [13]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Trading Data Comparison**: The report provides the trading data of soybean meal and rapeseed meal from June 24 to July 3, including transaction average prices, trading volumes, and the average price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal [14]. - **Rapeseed Meal Price Summary**: It shows the prices of rapeseed meal futures (main contract 2509, far - month contract 2601) and spot prices (in Fujian) from June 25 to July 3 [16]. - **Rapeseed Meal Warehouse Receipts**: It presents the rapeseed meal warehouse receipts and their changes from June 23 to July 3 [17]. - **Domestic Rapeseed Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: From 2014 to 2023, it includes data such as harvest area, initial inventory, production, total supply, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio [25]. - **Domestic Rapeseed Meal Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: From 2014 to 2023, it contains data such as initial inventory, production, total supply, feed demand, total demand, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio [26]. - **Price and Production**: The import volume of rapeseed in July is lower than expected, with a slight fluctuation in import cost. Oil - mill rapeseed inventory continues to decline, and rapeseed meal inventory has dropped to a low level. The oil - mill rapeseed crushing volume has a slight decrease. Aquatic fish prices have a slight increase, while shrimp and shellfish prices remain stable [27][29][31][39]. 5. Position Data - Not provided in the report 6. Rapeseed Meal Views and Strategies - **Fundamentals**: Rapeseed meal fluctuates and rebounds, driven by soybean meal trends and technical consolidation. Low oil - mill开机 rates and low inventory support the market. Spot demand is in the short - term peak season, and although the import of rapeseed increases, the oil - mill inventory has no short - term pressure, with a short - term slightly bullish trend. The impact of the tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes may be limited [9]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 2520, and the basis is - 81, indicating a discount to the futures, which is bearish [9]. - **Inventory**: Rapeseed meal inventory is 11000 tons, up 8.91% week - on - week from 10100 tons last week, and down 65.63% year - on - year from 32000 tons in the same period last year, which is bullish [9]. - **Market Chart**: The price is below the 20 - day moving average and the direction is downward, which is bearish [9]. - **Main Position**: The main long positions increase, but the funds flow out, which is bullish [9]. - **Expectation**: In the short term, rapeseed meal may rise and then fall due to low imported rapeseed inventory and the tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes. Driven by soybean meal, the price may return to range - bound trading [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The rapeseed meal RM2509 will fluctuate in the range of 2560 - 2620. It is currently affected by factors such as low rapeseed oil mill operation, low rapeseed meal inventory, short - term peak season of spot demand, increased imports of rapeseed, and the tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes. In the short term, it will fluctuate with a slight upward trend, but the upward space may be limited [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt No specific content provided in the given text. 2. Recent News - Domestic aquaculture is recovering from the off - season, with a tight supply and increasing demand in the spot market [11]. - The annual production of Canadian rapeseed has slightly decreased, supporting the foreign futures. China has imposed additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes, and the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is still ongoing, with uncertain results [11]. - Global rapeseed production has slightly decreased this year, mainly due to the reduction in EU rapeseed production and lower - than - expected production in Canada [11]. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues. The reduction in Ukrainian rapeseed production and the increase in Russian rapeseed production offset each other. There is still a possibility of an increase in global geopolitical conflicts, which supports commodities [11]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Concerns Bullish - China has imposed additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes [12]. - The rapeseed meal inventory pressure of oil mills is not significant [12]. Bearish - Domestic rapeseed was listed in June [13]. - The result of China's anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is still uncertain, and the demand for rapeseed meal is in the seasonal off - season [13]. Current Main Logic The market focuses on the domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [13]. 4. Fundamental Data Price Data - From June 23 to July 2, the average transaction price of rapeseed meal fluctuated between 2500 - 2600 yuan, and the average transaction price of soybean meal fluctuated between 2886 - 2966 yuan. The average price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was in the range of 358 - 416 yuan [14]. - From June 24 to July 2, the price of rapeseed meal futures (main contract 2509) fluctuated between 2550 - 2662 yuan, the price of the far - month contract 2601 fluctuated between 2290 - 2374 yuan, and the spot price in Fujian fluctuated between 2500 - 2600 yuan [16]. Inventory Data - As of July 2, the rapeseed meal inventory was 1.1 million tons, an 8.91% increase from last week's 1.01 million tons and a 65.63% decrease compared to the same period last year [9]. - From June 19 to July 2, the rapeseed meal warehouse receipts decreased from 25844 to 20149 [17]. Supply and Demand Balance Sheet - The domestic rapeseed supply - demand balance sheet shows the changes in harvest area, initial inventory, output, total supply, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio from 2014 to 2023 [25]. - The domestic rapeseed meal supply - demand balance sheet shows the changes in initial inventory, output, total supply, feed demand, total demand, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio from 2014 to 2023 [26]. 5. Position Data No specific content provided in the given text related to position data analysis. 6. Rapeseed Meal Views and Strategies Analysis of Influencing Factors - Fundamental aspect: The upward movement of rapeseed meal is driven by soybean meal and technical consolidation. Low oil mill operation and low inventory support the price. The short - term peak season of spot demand and increased imports of rapeseed have no short - term pressure on oil mill inventory. The tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes is bullish, but the non - imposition of tariffs on rapeseed limits the bullish effect [9]. - Basis aspect: The spot price is 2500 yuan, and the basis is - 78, indicating that the spot is at a discount to the futures, which is bearish [9]. - Inventory aspect: The increase in rapeseed meal inventory week - on - week is bearish, but the significant decrease compared to the same period last year is bullish [9]. - Disk aspect: The price is below the 20 - day moving average and moving downward, which is bearish [9]. - Main position aspect: The decrease in main long positions and the inflow of funds are bullish [9]. Forecast Rapeseed meal is expected to experience short - term fluctuations. It may rise due to low rapeseed inventory and the tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes, but then fall back. Driven by soybean meal, the price will return to a range - bound pattern [9].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Rapeseed meal RM2509 is expected to fluctuate within the range of 2540 - 2600. The market is currently neutral, with short - term bullish trends due to low rapeseed meal inventory and the tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes, but also facing uncertainties from the potential increase in Canadian rapeseed imports and the seasonal nature of demand [9]. - The market is focusing on domestic aquaculture demand and the expected outcome of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - Rapeseed meal RM2509 is in a range - bound oscillation. The fundamentals show that the low inventory of rapeseed meal and the tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes support the price, but the non - tariff on Canadian rapeseed limits the upside. The basis is negative, the inventory has increased week - on - week but decreased year - on - year, the price is below the 20 - day moving average, the main long positions are increasing, and the price is expected to return to range - bound movement [9]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture is recovering from the off - season, with supply in the spot market tightening and demand rising. - Canadian rapeseed production has slightly decreased, and China has imposed tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes. The anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is ongoing, and the result is uncertain. - Global rapeseed production has slightly decreased this year, mainly due to reduced production in the EU and lower - than - expected production in Canada. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, with the decrease in Ukrainian rapeseed production offset by the increase in Russian production. Geopolitical conflicts may still support commodity prices [11]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors: China's tariff on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes; low inventory pressure on rapeseed meal in oil mills [12]. - Bearish factors: The listing of domestic rapeseed in June; the uncertainty of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports and the seasonal off - season of rapeseed meal demand [13]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Price and Volume**: The average price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal has slightly narrowed. The rapeseed meal futures and spot prices have shown a downward trend, with the spot price at a relatively high discount [14][16][20]. - **Inventory**: Rapeseed meal inventory is 1.1 million tons, up 8.91% week - on - week and down 65.63% year - on - year. The rapeseed inventory in oil mills continues to decline, and the rapeseed meal inventory has reached a low level [9][29]. - **Supply and Demand Balance**: The domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal supply - demand balance sheets show historical data on harvest area, production, consumption, and inventory [25][26]. 3.5 Position Data - The main long positions in rapeseed meal are increasing, and funds are flowing in [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Rapeseed meal RM2509 will fluctuate in the range of 2540 - 2600. It is affected by factors such as soybean meal trends, low rapeseed meal inventory, and the tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes. In the short - term, it is expected to fluctuate within the range after a brief rise and fall [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - Rapeseed meal RM2509 is expected to oscillate between 2540 and 2600. It is currently in a short - term, slightly strong oscillation. The impact of the tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes is limited, and the price will return to the range oscillation [9]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture is recovering from the off - season, with tight supply and rising demand in the spot market. Canadian rapeseed annual production decreased slightly, and China has imposed tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes. The anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is ongoing. Global rapeseed production decreased slightly this year, mainly due to reduced EU production and lower - than - expected Canadian output. The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, and global geopolitical conflicts may rise, supporting commodities [11]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Concerns - **Bullish factors**: China's tariff on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes, and low inventory pressure on rapeseed meal in oil mills [12]. - **Bearish factors**: The listing of domestic rapeseed in June, and uncertainties in the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports. Rapeseed meal demand is in the seasonal off - season [13]. - **Current main logic**: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the Canadian rapeseed tariff war. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Price and basis**: The spot price is 2500, with a basis of - 72, indicating a discount to the futures. The rapeseed meal futures and spot prices have declined slightly, with the spot discount remaining at a relatively high level. The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal has slightly narrowed, and the price difference of the 2509 contract has remained oscillating [9][16][20]. - **Inventory**: Rapeseed meal inventory is 1.1 million tons, up 8.91% week - on - week from last week's 1.01 million tons and down 65.63% year - on - year compared to 3.2 million tons in the same period last year. Oil mill rapeseed inventory has continued to decline, and rapeseed meal inventory has fallen to a low level [9]. - **Supply and demand balance**: The report provides domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal supply - demand balance sheets from 2014 - 2023, including data on harvest area, production, consumption, and inventory [25][26]. 3.5 Position Data - The main long positions have increased, but the funds have flowed out [9].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapeseed meal RM2509 is expected to oscillate between 2640 and 2700. The rapeseed meal market is influenced by factors such as the soybean meal trend, technical consolidation, low oil mill operation rates, low rapeseed meal inventories, and the impact of China's tariff on Canadian oil cakes. The market is expected to be volatile in the short term, with a slight upward bias [9]. - The current market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expected tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [12]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Daily Hints - No relevant content provided 2. Recent News - Domestic aquaculture is recovering from the off - season, with tight supply and rising demand in the spot market [11]. - Canada's annual rapeseed production has slightly decreased, supporting the overseas futures market. China has imposed additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil cakes, and the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is still ongoing [11]. - Global rapeseed production has slightly decreased this year, mainly due to reduced production in the EU and lower - than - expected production in Canada [11]. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues. The decrease in Ukraine's rapeseed production and the increase in Russia's rapeseed production offset each other. Global geopolitical conflicts may rise in the future, supporting commodities [11]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors: China's additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil cakes; low inventory pressure on oil mill rapeseed meal [12]. - Bearish factors: An increase in the arrival volume of imported rapeseed after March; uncertainties in China's anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports and the seasonal off - season of rapeseed meal demand [12]. 4. Fundamental Data - Rapeseed meal inventory is 1.55 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 18.42% and a year - on - year decrease of 40.38% [9]. - The spot price is 2620, with a basis of - 59, indicating a discount to the futures [9]. - The price is above the 20 - day moving average and trending upward [9]. - The import volume of rapeseed in June was lower than expected, and the import cost was volatile with an upward bias [26]. - The inventory of rapeseed in oil mills continued to decline, and the rapeseed meal inventory slightly decreased to a low level [29]. - The amount of rapeseed crushed in oil mills slightly decreased [31]. - Aquatic fish prices slightly rebounded, while shrimp and shellfish prices remained stable [39]. 5. Position Data - The main long positions decreased, but capital inflows were observed, which is bullish [9]. 6. Rapeseed Meal Views and Strategies - The rapeseed meal market is expected to oscillate between 2640 and 2700 in the short term. It was affected by the low inventory of imported rapeseed and China's additional tariffs on Canadian oil cakes, causing it to rise and then fall. The soybean meal also influenced the rapeseed meal price to return to the range oscillation [9].