Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Rapeseed meal RM2509 is expected to oscillate in the range of 2600 - 2660. Influenced by the low inventory of imported rapeseed and the tariff increase on Canadian oil residue cakes, the price may rise and then fall, and return to the range oscillation in the short - term due to the impact of soybean meal [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - Rapeseed meal is oscillating and rising, driven by soybean meal and technical consolidation. The low operation rate of rapeseed meal oil mills and low inventory support the market. The short - term demand for rapeseed meal is in the peak season. Although the arrival of imported rapeseed increases, the short - term inventory of oil mills is under no pressure. The tariff increase on Canadian oil residue cakes is a short - term positive factor, but the positive effect may be limited as there is no tariff increase on rapeseed imports [9]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the peak season, improving the supply shortage expectation in the spot market while maintaining good demand expectations. The slight decrease in Canada's annual rapeseed production supports the foreign futures market. China has imposed additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes, and the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is still ongoing. The global rapeseed production has slightly decreased this year, mainly due to the reduction in the EU and Canada. The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, and the global geopolitical conflict may still rise, which supports commodities [11]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Concerns - **Bullish factors**: China's additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes; low inventory pressure of rapeseed meal in oil mills [12]. - **Bearish factors**: The listing of domestic rapeseed in June; the uncertainty of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports and the seasonal off - peak demand for rapeseed meal [13]. - **Main logic**: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Base difference**: The spot price is 2520, and the base difference is - 91, indicating a discount to the futures, which is bearish [9]. - **Inventory**: Rapeseed meal inventory is 0.46 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 58.18% from last week's 1.1 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 84.67% compared with 3 tons in the same period last year, which is bullish [9]. - **Market trend**: The price is above the 20 - day moving average but moving downward, showing a neutral trend [9]. - **Supply - demand balance sheets**: The report provides the domestic rapeseed supply - demand balance sheet and the domestic rapeseed meal supply - demand balance sheet from 2014 to 2023, including data such as harvest area, inventory, production, and consumption [25][26]. - **Import situation**: The arrival volume of imported rapeseed in July is lower than expected, and the import cost fluctuates slightly [27]. - **Inventory situation**: The rapeseed inventory of oil mills has rebounded from a low level, and the rapeseed meal inventory remains low. The rapeseed crushing volume of oil mills has slightly decreased [29][31]. 3.5 Position Data - The main long positions have increased, and capital has flowed in, which is bullish [9]. 3.6 Rapeseed Meal Views and Strategies - Rapeseed meal RM2509 is expected to oscillate between 2600 - 2660. In the short - term, it may rise and then fall due to the low inventory of imported rapeseed and the tariff increase on Canadian oil residue cakes, and return to the range oscillation under the influence of soybean meal [9].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views - Rapeseed meal RM2509 is expected to oscillate in the range of 2540 - 2600. The market is influenced by factors such as soybean meal trends, low rapeseed meal inventory, and the import tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes. The overall outlook is neutral [9]. - The short - term outlook for rapeseed meal is that it will return to range - bound trading due to the low inventory of imported rapeseed and the tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes, along with the influence of soybean meal [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - Rapeseed meal RM2509 will oscillate in the 2540 - 2600 range. Influential factors include soybean meal trends, low oil mill operation rate, low rapeseed meal inventory, and the tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes. The current status is neutral [9]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the peak season, and the supply - tightness expectation in the spot market has improved. The demand side maintains a good outlook [11]. - The annual production of Canadian rapeseed has slightly decreased, supporting the foreign futures market. China has imposed additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes, and the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is still ongoing [11]. - Global rapeseed production has slightly decreased this year, mainly due to the reduction in EU rapeseed production and lower - than - expected Canadian rapeseed production [11]. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, with the decrease in Ukrainian rapeseed production offset by the increase in Russian rapeseed production. There is a possibility of an escalation in global geopolitical conflicts, which may support commodities [11]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - **Bullish factors**: China's additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes; low inventory pressure on oil mills' rapeseed meal [12]. - **Bearish factors**: The listing of domestic rapeseed in June; the uncertainty of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports and the seasonal off - peak demand for rapeseed meal [13]. - **Main logic**: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the Canadian rapeseed tariff war [13]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Price and basis**: Spot price is 2500, basis is - 86, indicating a discount to the futures price, which is bearish [9]. - **Inventory**: Rapeseed meal inventory is 0.46 tons, down 58.18% week - on - week from 1.1 tons last week and 84.67% year - on - year from 3 tons in the same period last year, which is bullish [9]. - **Market trend**: The price is below the 20 - day moving average and the direction is downward, which is bearish [9]. - **Supply - demand balance sheets**: The report provides domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal supply - demand balance sheets from 2014 - 2023, including data on harvest area, inventory, production, consumption, etc. [25][26]. 3.5 Position Data - The main long positions have increased, but the funds have flowed out, which is bullish [9]. 3.6 Rapeseed Meal Price and Inventory - Rapeseed meal futures and spot prices have been summarized, showing that the spot price has followed the futures price with small fluctuations, and the spot discount has remained at a relatively high level [16][20]. - The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal has slightly narrowed, and the price difference of the 2509 contract has remained volatile [22]. - The rapeseed import volume in July was lower than expected, and the import cost fluctuated slightly [27]. - The oil mill's rapeseed inventory has rebounded from a low level, while the rapeseed meal inventory has remained low [29]. - The oil mill's rapeseed crushing volume has slightly decreased [31]. 3.7 Aquaculture Production and Price - The report provides data on China's aquatic product and fish production, shellfish and shrimp - crab production, and OECD's forecast of China's fish production and imports [33][35][37]. - Aquatic fish prices have fluctuated slightly, while shrimp and shellfish prices have remained stable [39].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 菜粕早报 2025-07-09 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸菜粕观点和策略 菜粕RM2509：2540至2600区间震荡 1.基本面：菜粕震荡回落，豆粕走势带动和技术性震荡整理，菜粕油厂开机处于低位，菜粕 库存维持低位支撑盘面。菜粕现货需求短期进入旺季，进口油菜籽到港量增多但油厂库 存短期无压力，盘面短期维持区间震荡。中国对加拿大油渣饼进口加征关税短期利多菜 粕，但未对油菜籽进口加征关税，利多程度也或有限。中性 2.基差：现货2500，基差-76，贴水期货。偏空 3.库存：菜粕库存0.46万吨，上周1.1万吨，周环比减少58.18%，去年同期3万吨，同比减少 84.67%。偏 ...

1 每日提示 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 菜粕早报 2025-07-04 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸菜粕观点和策略 菜粕RM2509：2600至2660区间震荡 1.基本面：菜粕震荡回升，豆粕走势带动和技术性震荡整理，菜粕油厂开机处于低位，菜粕 库存维持低位支撑盘面。菜粕现货需求短期进入旺季，进口油菜籽到港量增多但油厂库 存短期无压力，盘面短期震荡偏强。中国对加拿大油渣饼进口加征关税短期利多菜粕， 但未对油菜籽进口加征关税，利多程度也或有限。中性 2.基差：现货2520，基差-81，贴水期货。偏空 3.库存：菜粕库存1.1万吨，上周1.01万吨，周环比增加8.91%，去年同期3.2万吨，同比减 少65.63%。偏多 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 菜粕早报 2025-07-03 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸菜粕观点和策略 菜粕RM2509：2560至2620区间震荡 1.基本面：菜粕震荡回升，豆粕走势带动和技术性震荡整理，菜粕油厂开机处于低位，菜粕 库存维持低位支撑盘面。菜粕现货需求短期进入旺季，进口油菜籽到港量增多但油厂库 存短期无压力，盘面短期震荡偏强。中国对加拿大油渣饼进口加征关税短期利多菜粕， 但未对油菜籽进口加征关税，利多程度也或有限。中性 2.基差：现货2500，基差-78，贴水期货。偏空 3.库存：菜粕库存1.1万吨，上周1.01万吨，周环比增加8.91%，去年同期3.2万吨，同比减 少65.63%。偏多 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Rapeseed meal RM2509 is expected to fluctuate within the range of 2540 - 2600. The market is currently neutral, with short - term bullish trends due to low rapeseed meal inventory and the tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes, but also facing uncertainties from the potential increase in Canadian rapeseed imports and the seasonal nature of demand [9]. - The market is focusing on domestic aquaculture demand and the expected outcome of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - Rapeseed meal RM2509 is in a range - bound oscillation. The fundamentals show that the low inventory of rapeseed meal and the tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes support the price, but the non - tariff on Canadian rapeseed limits the upside. The basis is negative, the inventory has increased week - on - week but decreased year - on - year, the price is below the 20 - day moving average, the main long positions are increasing, and the price is expected to return to range - bound movement [9]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture is recovering from the off - season, with supply in the spot market tightening and demand rising. - Canadian rapeseed production has slightly decreased, and China has imposed tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes. The anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is ongoing, and the result is uncertain. - Global rapeseed production has slightly decreased this year, mainly due to reduced production in the EU and lower - than - expected production in Canada. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, with the decrease in Ukrainian rapeseed production offset by the increase in Russian production. Geopolitical conflicts may still support commodity prices [11]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors: China's tariff on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes; low inventory pressure on rapeseed meal in oil mills [12]. - Bearish factors: The listing of domestic rapeseed in June; the uncertainty of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports and the seasonal off - season of rapeseed meal demand [13]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Price and Volume**: The average price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal has slightly narrowed. The rapeseed meal futures and spot prices have shown a downward trend, with the spot price at a relatively high discount [14][16][20]. - **Inventory**: Rapeseed meal inventory is 1.1 million tons, up 8.91% week - on - week and down 65.63% year - on - year. The rapeseed inventory in oil mills continues to decline, and the rapeseed meal inventory has reached a low level [9][29]. - **Supply and Demand Balance**: The domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal supply - demand balance sheets show historical data on harvest area, production, consumption, and inventory [25][26]. 3.5 Position Data - The main long positions in rapeseed meal are increasing, and funds are flowing in [9].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 菜粕早报 2025-07-01 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸菜粕观点和策略 菜粕RM2509：2540至2600区间震荡 1.基本面：菜粕震荡回升，豆粕走势带动和技术性震荡整理，菜粕油厂开机处于低位，菜粕 库存维持低位支撑盘面。菜粕现货需求短期进入旺季，进口油菜籽到港量增多但油厂库 存短期无压力，盘面短期震荡偏强。中国对加拿大油渣饼进口加征关税短期利多菜粕， 但未对油菜籽进口加征关税，利多程度也或有限。中性 2.基差：现货2500，基差-72，贴水期货。偏空 3.库存：菜粕库存1.1万吨，上周1.01万吨，周环比增加8.91%，去年同期3.2万吨，同比减 少65.63%。偏多 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 菜粕早报 2025-06-23 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸菜粕观点和策略 菜粕RM2509：2640至2700区间震荡 1.基本面：菜粕震荡回落，豆粕走势带动和技术性震荡整理，菜粕油厂开机处于低位，菜粕 库存维持低位支撑盘面。菜粕现货需求短期进入旺季，进口油菜籽到港量增多但油厂库 存短期无压力，盘面短期震荡偏强。中国对加拿大油渣饼进口加征关税短期利多菜粕， 但未对油菜籽进口加征关税，利多程度也或有限。中性 2.基差：现货2620，基差-59，贴水期货。偏空 3.库存：菜粕库存1.55万吨，上周1.9万吨，周环比减少18.42%，去年同期2.6万吨，同比减 少40.38%。偏 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 菜粕早报 2025-06-19 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸菜粕观点和策略 菜粕RM2509：2640至2700区间震荡 1.基本面：菜粕冲高回落，豆粕走势带动和技术性震荡整理，菜粕油厂开机处于低位，菜粕 库存维持低位支撑盘面。菜粕现货需求短期进入旺季，进口油菜籽到港量增多但油厂库 存短期无压力，盘面短期震荡偏强。中国对加拿大油渣饼进口加征关税短期利多菜粕， 但未对油菜籽进口加征关税，利多程度也或有限。中性 2.基差：现货2620，基差-68，贴水期货。偏空 3.库存：菜粕库存1.55万吨，上周1.9万吨，周环比减少18.42%，去年同期2.6万吨，同比减 少40.38%。偏 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 菜粕早报 2025-06-18 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸菜粕观点和策略 菜粕RM2509：2640至2700区间震荡 1.基本面：菜粕震荡回升，需求表现良好和技术性震荡整理，菜粕油厂开机处于低位，菜粕 库存维持低位支撑盘面。菜粕现货需求短期进入旺季，进口油菜籽到港量增多但油厂库 存短期无压力，盘面短期震荡偏强。中国对加拿大油渣饼进口加征关税短期利多菜粕， 但未对油菜籽进口加征关税，利多程度也或有限。中性 2.基差：现货2600，基差-82，贴水期货。偏空 3.库存：菜粕库存1.55万吨，上周1.9万吨，周环比减少18.42%，去年同期2.6万吨，同比减 少40.38%。偏 ...