1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Sugar: Oscillating [1] - Cotton: Oscillating [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - Sugar is affected by the continuous drought from autumn to spring, with unfavorable emergence and early - stage growth of sugarcane in Guangxi, while beet grows well overall but there are potential pest problems in Inner Mongolia. International factors include the need to monitor Brazil's sugar production progress and Northern Hemisphere sugar crop growth [1]. - Most cotton - growing areas in China have entered the budding - to - flowering stage, with growth 4 to 7 days ahead of previous years. High - temperature risks in Xinjiang in July and the cautious raw - material procurement of textile enterprises due to the off - season market require continuous attention to weather changes and tariff uncertainties [1]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Data Overview 3.1.1 Outer - Market Quotes - US sugar price remained at $16.79 from July 19th to 20th, with a 0.00% change [3]. - US cotton price remained at $68.76 from July 19th to 20th, with a 0.00% change [3]. 3.1.2 Spot Prices - Nanning sugar price remained at 6050.0 from July 17th to 18th, with a 0.00% change [3]. - Kunming sugar price remained at 5905.0 from July 17th to 18th, with a 0.00% change [3]. - Cotton Index 328 increased from 3280 to 3281 from July 17th to 18th, with a 1.00% change [3]. - Xinjiang cotton price increased from 15200.0 to 15300.0 from July 17th to 18th, with a 0.66% change [3]. 3.1.3 Spread Overview - All sugar and cotton spreads (SR01 - 05, SR05 - 09, etc.) remained unchanged from July 19th to 20th, with a 0.00% change [3]. 3.1.4 Import Prices - Cotton cotlookA increased from 79.3 to 79.5 from July 17th to 18th, with a 0.25% change [3]. 3.1.5 Profit Margins - Sugar import profit remained at 1579.0 from July 17th to 18th, with a 0.00% change [3]. 3.1.6 Options - SR509C5800 has an implied volatility of 0.0745 and a historical volatility of 7.05 for the underlying SR509 [3]. - SR509P5800 has an implied volatility of 0.0746 [3]. - CF509C14200 has an implied volatility of 0.1198 and a historical volatility of 9.16 for the underlying CF509 [3]. - CF509P14200 has an implied volatility of 0.1251 [3]. 3.1.7 Warehouse Receipts - Sugar warehouse receipts decreased from 21857.0 to 21477.0 from July 17th to 18th, with a - 1.74% change [3]. - Cotton warehouse receipts decreased from 9585.0 to 9532.0 from July 17th to 18th, with a - 0.55% change [3]. 3.2 Company Information - CINDA Futures Co., Ltd. is a limited - liability company specializing in domestic futures business, wholly - owned by CINDA Securities Co., Ltd., with a registered capital of 600 million RMB. It holds various memberships in multiple exchanges and associations [8].

Group 1: Market Trends - Lemon prices have surged significantly, with wholesale prices rising from approximately 9 yuan/kg at the beginning of the year to 14 yuan/kg, and reaching as high as 24 yuan/kg in some markets [2][4] - The national average wholesale price for lemons in June was 12.96 yuan/kg, marking a 13.5% increase from May and a 65% increase year-on-year [2] - Coffee bean prices have also seen dramatic fluctuations, with certain blends increasing from about 65 yuan/bag to 90 yuan/bag, reflecting a nearly 40% rise [2][4] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of lemons has been adversely affected by extreme weather conditions, leading to a significant drop in production, particularly in major producing areas like Sichuan [4] - Coffee production in key exporting countries such as Brazil and Vietnam has also been impacted by unfavorable weather, contributing to a tightening global supply [4][5] - The demand for both lemons and coffee has been on the rise, with China's coffee market expected to exceed 310 billion yuan by the end of 2024, growing at approximately 18% year-on-year [5][6] Group 3: Financial Tools and Risk Management - The introduction of coffee futures is anticipated to provide a systematic mechanism for price discovery and risk hedging, which is currently lacking in the market [1][7] - Companies are increasingly looking to lock in prices through forward contracts and financial instruments to manage the volatility of raw material costs [6][8] - The use of futures and options is expected to play a crucial role in stabilizing costs and enhancing pricing power for companies in the new consumption landscape [1][7]

商品研究 期货研究报告 市场静候 USDA 报告，软商品盘整 [T报ab告le日_R期ep：ortDate] 2025-07-11 报告内容摘要: [Table_Summary] 白糖：2024/25 年度的食糖生产已圆满结束。根据中国糖业协会的统计， 截至 5 月底，全国累计产糖达到 1116 万吨，同比增长 120 万吨；累计销糖 811 万吨，同比增长 152 万吨；销售进度为 72.7%，比去年同期加快了 6.5 个百分点。自 5 月以来，广西的降水缓解了之前的旱情，而云南的降雨量也 高于往年同期，这对甘蔗的生长十分有利。尽管内蒙古的甜菜播种因低温有 所延迟，但近期光照和温度条件的改善使甜菜的生长恢复良好，新疆的甜菜 生长情况总体也较好。在国际市场方面，预计 2025/26 年度的主要产糖国印 度将增产，而巴西的干旱影响相对有限，全球食糖供给趋于宽松，国际糖价 呈现弱势运行。后续需密切关注主要产国的降水情况以及巴西的食糖生产和 出口进度。 软商品日报 走势评级： 白糖——震荡 棉花——震荡 棉花：由于美国施加的关税影响，棉花进口量未达到预期。自播种以来， 全国棉区的光照和温度总体适宜，有利于棉花的生长 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both sugar and cotton is "sideways" [1] Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the 2024/25 sugar production season, China's total sugar output reached 11.16 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.2 million tons; total sugar sales were 8.11 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.52 million tons; the sales progress was 72.7%, 6.5 percentage points faster than the same period last year. Favorable weather conditions in major domestic sugar - growing regions are conducive to the growth of sugarcane and sugar beets. Globally, the sugar supply in the 2025/26 season is expected to be loose, and international sugar prices are showing a weak trend [1] - Due to US tariffs, China's cotton imports did not meet expectations. Overall, the light and temperature conditions in domestic cotton - growing areas are suitable for cotton growth, and the development stage of most cotton is 3 - 15 days earlier than in previous years. Attention should be paid to the impact of weather on cotton yield [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Sugar - **Production and Sales**: In the 2024/25 season, China's cumulative sugar production reached 11.16 million tons, up 1.2 million tons year - on - year; cumulative sugar sales were 8.11 million tons, up 1.52 million tons year - on - year; the sales progress was 72.7%, 6.5 percentage points faster than last year [1] - **Domestic Growing Conditions**: Since May, precipitation in Guangxi has alleviated the previous drought, and rainfall in Yunnan has been higher than the same period in previous years, which is beneficial to sugarcane growth. Although sugar beet sowing in Inner Mongolia was delayed due to low temperatures, recent improvements in light and temperature have restored good growth, and the growth of sugar beets in Xinjiang is also generally good [1] - **International Market**: In the 2025/26 season, major sugar - producing countries such as India are expected to increase production, and the impact of drought in Brazil is relatively limited. The global sugar supply is becoming looser, and international sugar prices are running weakly [1] - **Price and Data Changes**: From July 8 to July 9, 2025, the price of US sugar rose from 16.15 to 16.54 US dollars, an increase of 2.41%. The price of sugar in Nanning rose from 6020 to 6040 yuan, an increase of 0.33%, and the price of sugar in Kunming rose from 5865 to 6365 yuan, an increase of 8.53%. The sugar warehouse receipts decreased from 23092 to 22987, a decrease of 0.45% [1][3] Cotton - **Import and Growing Conditions**: Due to US tariffs, cotton imports did not meet expectations. The light and temperature in domestic cotton - growing areas are generally suitable for growth. Most of the cotton in Xinjiang has entered the squaring stage, and cotton in the Yellow River and Yangtze River basins is in the fifth true leaf to squaring stage, with the development stage 3 - 15 days earlier than in previous years [1] - **Price and Data Changes**: From July 8 to July 9, 2025, the price of US cotton rose from 67.32 to 67.72 US dollars, an increase of 0.59%. The cotton index 328 decreased from 3281 to 3280, a decrease of 0.06%, and the price of cotton in Xinjiang remained unchanged at 15200 yuan. The cotton warehouse receipts decreased from 9971 to 9932, a decrease of 0.39% [1][3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for sugar is "sideways" [1]. - The investment rating for cotton is "sideways" [1]. Core Viewpoints - In the sugar market, the 2024/25 sugar production season has ended. China's cumulative sugar production reached 11.16 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.2 million tons, and the sales progress was 72.7%, 6.5 percentage points faster than the previous year. Favorable weather conditions in major domestic sugar - growing areas are beneficial for future production. Internationally, the 2025/26 sugar supply is expected to be loose, with India likely to increase production and limited drought impact in Brazil, leading to a weak international sugar price. Attention should be paid to precipitation in major producing countries and Brazil's sugar production and export progress [1]. - In the cotton market, due to US - imposed tariffs, cotton imports did not meet expectations. The overall light and temperature conditions in the national cotton - growing areas are suitable for growth, and most cotton development periods are 3 - 15 days ahead of previous years. Continued attention should be paid to the impact of weather on cotton yield [1]. Data Summary Price Data - **Sugar**: The price of US sugar rose from $15.56 on July 2, 2025, to $16.37 on July 3, 2025, with a growth rate of 5.21%. The spot price of sugar in Nanning decreased from 6070 yuan to 6060 yuan, a decline of 0.16%, and in Kunming, it decreased from 5895 yuan to 5880 yuan, a decline of 0.25% [3]. - **Cotton**: The price of US cotton decreased from $68.64 on July 2, 2025, to $68.43 on July 3, 2025, with a decline of 0.31%. The cotton index 328 increased from 3281 to 3280, with a growth rate of 0.26%, and the price of cotton in Xinjiang decreased from 15200 yuan to 15150 yuan, a decline of 0.33% [3]. Spread Data - **Sugar**: The spreads SR01 - 05, SR05 - 09, SR09 - 01, and the basis of sugar contracts 01, 05, and 09 all showed different degrees of change, with the basis of contract 09 having the largest decline of 12.40% [3]. - **Cotton**: The spreads CF01 - 05, CF05 - 09, CF09 - 01, and the basis of cotton contracts 01, 05, and 09 also changed, with the basis of contract 01 having the largest growth rate of 5.58% [3]. Other Data - **Import Price**: The import price of cotton cotlookA increased from 78.85 to 79.4, with a growth rate of 0.70% [3]. - **Profit Space**: The sugar import profit decreased from 1802 yuan to 1620.5 yuan, a decline of 10.07% [3]. - **Option Data**: The implied volatility of sugar and cotton option contracts and the historical volatility of their underlying futures are provided [3]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of sugar warehouse receipts decreased from 23575 to 23520, a decline of 0.23%, and the number of cotton warehouse receipts decreased from 10190 to 10140, a decline of 0.49% [3]. Company Information - Xinda Futures Co., Ltd. is a limited - liability company specializing in domestic futures business. It is wholly - owned by Xinda Securities Co., Ltd., with a registered capital of 600 million yuan. It is a comprehensive settlement member of the China Financial Futures Exchange and a full - fledged member of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, and Dalian Commodity Exchange [9].

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Sugar Industry**: The records primarily discuss the sugar industry, focusing on Brazil, India, Thailand, and China, along with insights into the wood industry in New Zealand. Key Points Brazil Sugar Production - **Cane Crushing and Sugar Production**: Brazil's sugarcane crushing volume and sugar production decreased by 11.85% and 11.64% year-on-year as of May 2025 due to heavy rainfall in April and early May. However, production improved in late May as rainfall decreased, leading to a recovery in sugar production [3][5][6]. - **Total Sugar Production Forecast**: Despite lower yields, the sugar production ratio increased, with total sugar production expected to exceed 40 million tons for the 2025 season [5][6]. - **Ethanol Market**: Ethanol sales in Brazil remained stable year-on-year, with a high market share of hydrous ethanol in the fuel market, indicating a surplus supply of sugarcane [7]. International Sugar Market - **India's Sugar Production**: For the 2025/26 season, India's sugar production is expected to increase significantly to between 32.3 million and 35 million tons due to favorable rainfall and increased procurement prices [11][12]. - **Thailand's Sugar Production**: Thailand's sugar production is expected to remain stable or slightly increase due to good rainfall and an increase in planting area [13]. Domestic Sugar Market (China) - **Production and Sales**: China's sugar production and sales are expected to increase for the 2024/25 season, with a significant reduction in imports. Sugar syrup and premix powder imports have also decreased, positively impacting domestic sugar prices [14][15]. - **Weather Impact**: The weather in Guangxi during the third quarter is crucial for sugarcane yields, with historical data indicating that rainfall during this period significantly affects final yields [16][19]. Wood Industry (New Zealand) - **Current Market Conditions**: The New Zealand wood industry is in a downturn, with low international demand leading to reduced production and exports. The domestic wood futures and spot prices are weak, and a surplus supply is expected in the next two years, followed by a reduction cycle starting in 2027 [4][20][24]. Price Trends and Market Outlook - **Sugar Price Trends**: The sugar prices are expected to remain weak and volatile in the near term due to strong production forecasts in major producing countries. The market is closely monitoring weather conditions that could impact yields [2][19]. - **Wood Price Trends**: The wood market is expected to see a slight rebound in prices, but overall, the market remains in a downtrend due to weak demand [20][31]. Additional Insights - **Export and Inventory Levels**: Brazil's sugar exports from January to May 2025 totaled 9.5381 million tons, a significant decrease year-on-year, with inventories at a low level of 2.8 million tons, down 35.37% [9]. - **Weather Predictions**: Future weather patterns in Brazil indicate potential challenges for sugarcane harvesting in June but favorable conditions from July to September, which could benefit sugarcane growth [10]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call records, focusing on the sugar and wood industries, their production forecasts, market conditions, and price trends.

商品研究 | 走势评级: | 白糖 | 震荡 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 棉花- | 震荡 | 张秀峰—分析师 从业资格证号：F0289189 投资咨询证号：Z0011152 联系电话：0571-28132619 邮箱：zhangxiufeng@cindasc.com 期货研究报告 美棉关键产区天气炎热，棉花短期观望为主 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款 2 [T报ab告le日_R期ep：ortDate] 2025-06-24 报告内容摘要: [Table_Summary] 白糖：2024/25 年度的食糖生产已圆满结束。根据中国糖业协会的统计， 截至 5 月底，全国累计产糖达到 1116 万吨，同比增长 120 万吨；累计销糖 811 万吨，同比增长 152 万吨；销售进度为 72.7%，比去年同期加快了 6.5 个百分点。自 5 月以来，广西的降水缓解了之前的旱情，而云南的降雨量也 高于往年同期，这对甘蔗的生长十分有利。尽管内蒙古的甜菜播种因低温有 所延迟，但近期光照和温度条件的改善使甜菜的生长恢复良好，新疆的甜菜 生长情况总体也较好。在国际市场方面，预计 2025/26 年度的主要产 ...

商品研究 | 走势评级: | 自糖 | 震荡 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 棉花- | 震荡 | 张秀峰—分析师 从业资格证号：F0289189 投资咨询证号：Z0011152 联系电话：0571-28132619 邮箱：zhangxiufeng@cindasc.com 期货研究报告 美元疲软提振，软商品有所支撑 [T报ab告le日_R期ep：ortDate] 2025-06-17 报告内容摘要: [Table_Summary] 白糖：2024/25 年度的食糖生产已圆满结束。根据中国糖业协会的统计， 截至 5 月底，全国累计产糖达到 1116 万吨，同比增长 120 万吨；累计销糖 811 万吨，同比增长 152 万吨；销售进度为 72.7%，比去年同期加快了 6.5 个百分点。自 5 月以来，广西的降水缓解了之前的旱情，而云南的降雨量也 高于往年同期，这对甘蔗的生长十分有利。尽管内蒙古的甜菜播种因低温有 所延迟，但近期光照和温度条件的改善使甜菜的生长恢复良好，新疆的甜菜 生长情况总体也较好。在国际市场方面，预计 2025/26 年度的主要产糖国印 度将增产，而巴西的干旱影响相对有限， ...

商品研究 | 走势评级: | 白糖 | 震荡 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 棉花- | 震荡 | 张秀峰—分析师 从业资格证号：F0289189 投资咨询证号：Z0011152 联系电话：0571-28132619 邮箱：zhangxiufeng@cindasc.com 期货研究报告 美元阶段性走强，白糖短线承压 [T报ab告le日_R期ep：ortDate] 2025-06-09 报告内容摘要: 免责声明 本报告由信达期货有限公司（以下简称"信达期货"）制作及发布。 [Table_Summary] 白糖：由于糖料种植的经济效益显著，加上国家政策和制糖企业的积极支 持，农民的种植积极性有所提升，导致糖料种植面积稳步增长。然而，广西 早期的干旱天气对宿根甘蔗的出苗和新植甘蔗的种植产生了不利影响，从而 限制了食糖产量的增长。食糖消费量预期保持平稳或略有增加，食糖的供需 缺口基本稳定，进口量预期维持在 500 万吨不变。短期观望为主 软商品日报 走势评级： 白糖——震荡 棉花——震荡 棉花：新疆的棉花目标价格补贴政策保持稳定，棉农的种植积极性较高， 种植面积略有增加；而内地棉区由于比较效益低和 ...

报告内容摘要: [Table_Summary] 白糖：由于糖料种植的经济效益显著，加上国家政策和制糖企业的积极支 持，农民的种植积极性有所提升，导致糖料种植面积稳步增长。然而，广西 早期的干旱天气对宿根甘蔗的出苗和新植甘蔗的种植产生了不利影响，从而 限制了食糖产量的增长。食糖消费量预期保持平稳或略有增加，食糖的供需 缺口基本稳定，进口量预期维持在 500 万吨不变。短期观望为主 软商品日报 走势评级： 白糖——震荡 棉花——震荡 棉花：新疆的棉花目标价格补贴政策保持稳定，棉农的种植积极性较高， 种植面积略有增加；而内地棉区由于比较效益低和机械化推广难度大等因 素，种植面积持续下降。在棉花播种和出苗期间，主要产区的气候条件良好， 预计单产为每公顷 2172 公斤（每亩 144.8 公斤），与去年持平。棉花总产 量预计为 625 万吨，比去年增加 1.4%。受美国过度征收关税的影响，棉花 消费预期偏弱，但未来仍存在一定的不确定性。预计新年度的棉花消费量为 740 万吨，较去年小幅减少 20 万吨，进口量也下调至 140 万吨，减少 10 万吨。短期观望。 商品研究 | 走势评级: | 白糖 | 震荡 | | -- ...