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软商品日报:巴西供应不及预期,白糖短期调整-20250825
Xin Da Qi Huo· 2025-08-25 04:08
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - The consumption of sugar has seasonally recovered due to the demand for summer cold drinks. The import of sugar has increased significantly recently due to the widening price difference between domestic and international markets, but the total annual import volume is still expected to be within the anticipated range. However, in July, Yunnan and Inner Mongolia experienced extreme precipitation, which may have affected the sugar cane and sugar beet crops, and the potential impact on sugar production needs continuous monitoring [1][2]. - Most cotton - growing areas in China are at the peak of flowering, and some areas in Xinjiang have entered the boll - opening stage, with the overall growth progress ahead of previous years. In August, cotton in Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin is at high risk of heat damage due to high temperatures and low precipitation. Currently, the commercial inventory of cotton is continuously decreasing, and the peak season for cotton textile is approaching, so the cotton price is supported [1][2]. - The recommended strategy is to mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Data on Commodity Prices and Fluctuations - **External Market Quotes**: On August 23 - 24, 2025, the price of US sugar was 16.44 dollars with a 0.00% change, and the price of US cotton was 68.0 dollars with a 0.00% change [3]. - **Spot Prices**: From August 21 - 22, 2025, the price of Nanning sugar was 5970.0 yuan with a 0.00% change, the price of Kunming sugar was 5855.0 yuan with a 0.00% change, the cotton index 328 changed from 3281 to 3280 with a 0.22% change, and the price of Xinjiang cotton changed from 15100.0 yuan to 15050.0 yuan with a - 0.33% change [3]. - **Price Spreads**: From August 23 - 24, 2025, all the price spreads of SR01 - 05, SR05 - 09, SR09 - 01, CF01 - 05, CF05 - 09, CF09 - 01, and the basis of sugar and cotton contracts had a 0.00% change [3]. - **Import Prices**: From August 21 - 22, 2025, the price of cotton cotlookA was 78.9 with a 0.00% change [3]. - **Profit Margins**: From August 21 - 22, 2025, the sugar import profit was 1515.0 with a 0.00% change [3]. - **Options**: For options such as SR601C5700, SR601P5700, CF601C14000, and CF601P14000, the implied volatility and historical volatility data are provided [3]. - **Inventory Warehouse Receipts**: From August 21 - 22, 2025, the number of Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts decreased from 15751.0 to 15555.0 with a - 1.24% change, and the number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts decreased from 7335.0 to 7198.0 with a - 1.87% change [1][3].
软商品日报:美元走强压制大宗价格,棉花短期承压-20250822
Xin Da Qi Huo· 2025-08-22 00:59
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for sugar is "sideways", and for cotton is also "sideways" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - Sugar consumption has a seasonal uptick due to summer cold - drink demand, and sugar imports have increased significantly recently due to the widening domestic - foreign price gap. However, the overall annual import volume is still expected to be within the anticipated range. Extreme precipitation in Yunnan and Inner Mongolia since July may affect sugar production, and continuous monitoring is required. - Cotton is at risk of heat damage in Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin in August due to high temperatures and low precipitation. Cotton commercial inventory is decreasing, and with the upcoming peak season for cotton textile, cotton prices are supported at the bottom. The overall strategy recommendation is to wait and see [1][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Contents 3.1 Market Information - Spot prices: Nanning sugar spot price is 5970.0 yuan, Kunming sugar spot price is 5855.0 yuan, and Xinjiang cotton spot price is 15100.0 yuan [1] - Futures closing prices and changes: U.S. sugar closed at 16.36, with a change of - 1.33%; U.S. cotton closed at 67.47, with a change of - 0.09% [1] 3.2 Supply and Demand - Sugar: Summer cold - drink demand drives seasonal recovery in sugar consumption. The widening domestic - foreign price gap has led to a significant increase in recent sugar imports [1] - Cotton: In August, high temperatures and low precipitation in Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin increase the risk of heat damage to cotton. Current cotton commercial inventory is decreasing, and the upcoming cotton textile peak season provides support for cotton prices [1] 3.3 Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts are 15751.0, with a change of - 3.03%; Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts are 7335.0, with a change of - 1.61% [2] 3.4 Data Quick View - **Futures price changes**: U.S. sugar decreased from 16.58 to 16.36 (-1.33%), and U.S. cotton decreased from 67.53 to 67.47 (-0.09%) - **Spot price changes**: Nanning and Kunming sugar spot prices remained unchanged; the cotton index 328 decreased from 3281 to 3280 (-0.20%), and Xinjiang cotton spot price remained unchanged - **Spread changes**: For example, SR01 - 05 decreased from 43.0 to 42.0 (-2.33%), and CF01 - 05 increased from 15.0 to 25.0 (66.67%) - **Import price**: Cotton cotlookA remained at 78.95 - **Profit margin**: Sugar import profit remained at 1565.0 - **Options**: For SR601C5700, implied volatility is 0.08, and the historical volatility of the futures underlying is 6.1; for CF601C14000, implied volatility is 0.105, and the historical volatility of the futures underlying is 5.61 [4]
软商品日报:巴西前两周出口数据缩减,白糖短期震荡运行-20250819
Xin Da Qi Huo· 2025-08-19 02:20
Report Industry Investment Rating - Sugar - Oscillation [1] - Cotton - Oscillation [1] Core Viewpoints - For sugar, since July, extreme precipitation in Yunnan and Inner Mongolia has affected local sugarcane and sugar beet crops, and the potential impact on sugar production needs continuous monitoring. Summer cold drink consumption drives a seasonal increase in sugar demand. Recently, sugar imports have climbed significantly due to the widening domestic - foreign price gap, but the annual import volume is still expected to be within the forecast range [1]. - For cotton, most cotton - growing areas in China are at the peak of blooming, and some areas in Xinjiang have entered the boll - opening and flocculation stage, with the overall growth progress ahead of previous years. In August, cotton in Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin faces a high risk of heat damage due to high temperatures and insufficient precipitation. Currently, commercial cotton inventories are declining, and the peak season for cotton textile is approaching, which supports cotton prices [1]. Data Overview 1. Price Changes - **Foreign Market Quotes**: From August 17 to 18, 2025, the price of US sugar decreased from 16.47 dollars to 16.24 dollars, a decline of 1.40%, while the price of US cotton increased from 67.48 dollars to 67.84 dollars, a rise of 0.53% [3]. - **Spot Prices**: From August 15 to 18, 2025, the price of sugar in Nanning remained unchanged at 5980.0 yuan, the price in Kunming decreased from 5860.0 yuan to 5855.0 yuan, a decline of 0.09%. The cotton index 328 decreased slightly from 3281 to 3280, a decline of 0.12%, and the price of cotton in Xinjiang increased from 15050.0 yuan to 15100.0 yuan, a rise of 0.33% [3]. 2. Spread Changes - **Sugar Spreads**: From August 17 to 18, 2025, SR01 - 05 increased from 42.0 to 46.0, a rise of 9.52%; SR05 - 09 increased from - 118.0 to - 110.0, a decline of 6.78%; SR09 - 01 decreased from 76.0 to 64.0, a decline of 15.79% [3]. - **Cotton Spreads**: CF01 - 05 increased from 30.0 to 40.0, a rise of 33.33%; CF05 - 09 remained unchanged at 255.0; CF09 - 01 decreased from - 285.0 to - 295.0, a decline of 3.51% [3]. 3. Basis Changes - **Sugar Basis**: From August 15 to 18, 2025, the basis of sugar 01 decreased from 196.0 to 183.0, a decline of 6.63%; the basis of sugar 05 decreased from 238.0 to 229.0, a decline of 3.78%; the basis of sugar 09 decreased from 120.0 to 119.0, a decline of 0.83% [3]. - **Cotton Basis**: The basis of cotton 01 increased from 1096.0 to 1109.0, a rise of 1.19%; the basis of cotton 05 increased from 1126.0 to 1149.0, a rise of 2.04%; the basis of cotton 09 increased from 1381.0 to 1404.0, a rise of 1.67% [3]. 4. Import Price and Profit - **Import Price**: The import price of cotton cotlookA remained unchanged at 79.4 from August 15 to 18, 2025 [3]. - **Profit Space**: The sugar import profit remained unchanged at 1495.0 from August 15 to 18, 2025 [3]. 5. Option Information - For the SR601C5700 option, the implied volatility is 0.0832, and the historical volatility of the underlying futures SR601 is 6.18. For the SR601P5700 option, the implied volatility is 0.084. For the CF601C14200 option, the implied volatility is 0.1094, and the historical volatility of the underlying futures CF601 is 5.61. For the CF601P14200 option, the implied volatility is 0.1099 [3]. 6. Warehouse Receipt Changes - From August 15 to 18, 2025, the number of sugar warehouse receipts decreased from 17104.0 to 16931.0, a decline of 1.01%, and the number of cotton warehouse receipts decreased from 7829.0 to 7762.0, a decline of 0.86% [3] Company Information - The report is issued by CINDA Futures Co., Ltd., located at the 19 - 20th floors of Tianren Building, Qianjiang Century City, Xiaoshan District, Hangzhou, with a postal code of 311200. It is a wholly - owned subsidiary of CINDA Securities Co., Ltd., with a registered capital of 600 million yuan. It is a large - scale and high - reputation futures company in China, holding various memberships in multiple exchanges and associations [1][2][8]
软商品日报:有利天气预期下,棉花短期震荡偏弱-20250812
Xin Da Qi Huo· 2025-08-12 01:11
Report Industry Investment Rating - Sugar - Oscillation [1] - Cotton - Oscillation [1] Core Viewpoints - Sugar is affected by consecutive droughts from autumn to spring, with unfavorable emergence and early growth of sugarcane in Guangxi. Beet growth is generally good, but there is a risk of pests and diseases in Inner Mongolia due to excessive rainfall. Attention should be paid to Brazil's sugar production progress and Northern Hemisphere sugar crop growth [1]. - Most cotton - growing areas in China have entered the budding to flowering stage, with growth 4 - 7 days ahead of previous years. High - temperature in Xinjiang in July poses a heat - damage risk. Cotton inventory is decreasing, but the downstream market is in a slack season, and textile enterprises are cautious in raw material procurement. Weather changes and tariff uncertainties need to be monitored [1]. Data Summary 1. Price Changes - **Foreign Market Quotes**: From August 10 to August 11, 2025, the price of US sugar increased by 1.66% from 16.27 to 16.54 dollars, and the price of US cotton increased by 0.30% from 66.64 to 66.84 dollars [3]. - **Spot Prices**: From August 8 to August 11, 2025, the price of sugar in Nanning increased by 0.17% from 5950.0 to 5960.0, while the price in Kunming remained unchanged. The cotton index 328 decreased by 0.11% from 3281 to 3280, and the price of cotton in Xinjiang decreased by 0.33% from 15100.0 to 15050.0 [3]. 2. Spread Changes - **Sugar Spread**: From August 10 to August 11, 2025, SR01 - 05 decreased by 2.33%, SR05 - 09 decreased by 2.00%, and SR09 - 01 decreased by 1.87% [3]. - **Cotton Spread**: CF05 - 09 increased by 36.36%, and CF09 - 01 increased by 25.00%, while CF01 - 05 remained unchanged [3]. 3. Basis Changes - **Sugar Basis**: From August 8 to August 11, 2025, the basis of sugar 01 remained unchanged, the basis of sugar 05 decreased by 0.34%, and the basis of sugar 09 increased by 1.38% [3]. - **Cotton Basis**: The basis of cotton 01 decreased by 7.04%, the basis of cotton 05 decreased by 6.79%, and the basis of cotton 09 decreased by 3.71% [3]. 4. Import Price and Profit - The import price of cotton cotlookA remained unchanged from August 8 to August 11, 2025, and the sugar import profit also remained unchanged [3]. 5. Option Volatility - For SR601C5600, the implied volatility is 0.0856, and the historical volatility of the futures underlying SR601 is 5.86. For CF601C13600, the implied volatility is 0.107, and the historical volatility of the futures underlying CF601 is 5.03 [3]. 6. Warehouse Receipts - From August 8 to August 11, 2025, the number of sugar warehouse receipts decreased by 1.64% from 18545.0 to 18240.0, and the number of cotton warehouse receipts decreased by 0.97% from 8252.0 to 8172.0 [3] Company Information - Xinda Futures Co., Ltd. is a limited - liability company specializing in domestic futures business, wholly - owned by Xinda Securities Co., Ltd., with a registered capital of 600 million RMB. It has multiple memberships and observer statuses in relevant institutions [8].
软商品日报:需求疲软及贸易不确定性施压,棉花震荡调整-20250804
Xin Da Qi Huo· 2025-08-04 02:23
Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend ratings for both sugar and cotton are "sideways" [1] Core Viewpoints - Sugar: Affected by consecutive droughts from autumn to spring, the emergence and early growth of sugarcane in Guangxi are unfavorable, with the growth and plant number shorter and fewer compared to the same period last year. Beet growth is generally good, but recent heavy rainfall in Inner Mongolia may lead to pests and diseases. Internationally, the sugar production progress in Brazil and the growth of sugar crops in the Northern Hemisphere need to be monitored [1] - Cotton: Most cotton - growing areas in China have entered the budding to flowering stage, with the growth progress 4 to 7 days ahead of previous years. In July, Xinjiang is expected to have higher - than - normal temperatures, posing a high risk of heat damage to cotton. Although the total cotton inventory is decreasing, the downstream market shows off - season characteristics, and textile enterprises are cautious in raw material procurement. Weather changes and tariff uncertainties need continuous attention [1] Data Summary 1. Price Data - **External Market Quotes**: On August 2, 2025, the price of US sugar was 16.2 dollars, and on August 3, 2025, it remained at 16.2 dollars, with a 0.00% change. The price of US cotton was 66.42 dollars on both August 2 and 3, 2025, with a 0.00% change [3] - **Spot Prices**: From July 31 to August 1, 2025, the price of sugar in Nanning remained at 6030.0, with a 0.00% change; the price of sugar in Kunming dropped from 5900.0 to 5880.0, a - 0.34% change. The cotton index 328 decreased from 3281 to 3280, a - 0.42% change, while the price of cotton in Xinjiang increased from 15350.0 to 15400.0, a 0.33% change [3] 2. Spread Data - From August 2 to 3, 2025, the spreads of SR01 - 05, SR05 - 09, SR09 - 01, CF01 - 05, CF05 - 09, and CF09 - 01 all had 0.00% changes. The basis of sugar 01, 05, 09 and cotton 01, 05, 09 also remained unchanged with 0.00% changes [3] 3. Import - related Data - From July 31 to August 1, 2025, the import price of cotton cotlookA increased from 77.95 to 78.5, a 0.71% change. The sugar import profit remained at 1606.0, with a 0.00% change [3] 4. Option Data - For options, the implied volatility of SR509C5700 is 0.0804, and the historical volatility of its futures underlying SR509 is 7.11. The implied volatility of SR509P5700 is 0.0795. The implied volatility of CF509C13600 is 0.1024, and the historical volatility of its futures underlying CF509 is 9.12. The implied volatility of CF509P13600 is 0.0983 [3] 5. Warehouse Receipt Data - From July 31 to August 1, 2025, the number of sugar warehouse receipts decreased from 19473.0 to 19443.0, a - 0.15% change, and the number of cotton warehouse receipts decreased from 8940.0 to 8807.0, a - 1.49% change [3] Company Information - The report is produced by Cinda Futures Co., Ltd., a large - scale domestic futures company with a registered capital of 600 million RMB, wholly - owned by Cinda Securities Co., Ltd. It holds various memberships in multiple exchanges and associations [2][8]
软商品日报:受美元走强压制,软商品高位震荡-20250730
Xin Da Qi Huo· 2025-07-30 01:56
Report Industry Investment Rating - Sugar: Swing [1] - Cotton: Swing [1] Core View of the Report - Sugar: Affected by the continuous drought from autumn to spring, the emergence and early growth of sugarcane in Guangxi are unfavorable, with the growth and plant number shorter and fewer than the same period last year. The growth of sugar beets is generally good, but there has been excessive rainfall in the Inner Mongolia production area recently, which is prone to pests and diseases and requires early prevention and control. Internationally, the sugar production progress in Brazil and the growth of sugar crops in the Northern Hemisphere need to be continuously monitored [1]. - Cotton: Most cotton - growing areas in China have entered the budding to flowering stage, with the growth progress 4 to 7 days ahead of previous years. According to the climate forecast of the China Meteorological Administration, the temperature in Xinjiang will remain high in July, and the number of high - temperature days will exceed the same period in previous years, exposing cotton to a high risk of heat damage. Currently, the total cotton inventory is continuously decreasing, but the downstream market shows obvious off - season characteristics, and textile enterprises are cautious in raw material procurement. Therefore, the impact of weather changes and tariff uncertainties needs to be continuously monitored [1]. Summary based on Related Catalogs Data Overview 1. Foreign Market Quotes - US sugar (USD): On July 28, 2025, it was 16.43, and on July 29, 2025, it was 16.56, with a growth rate of 0.79% [3]. - US cotton (USD): On July 28, 2025, it was 68.3, and on July 29, 2025, it was 67.66, with a decline rate of - 0.94% [3]. 2. Spot Prices - Sugar (Nanning): It remained at 6050.0 from July 28 to July 29, 2025, with a growth rate of 0.00% [3]. - Sugar (Kunming): It remained at 5915.0 from July 28 to July 29, 2025, with a growth rate of 0.00% [3]. - Cotton Index 328: On July 28, 2025, it was 3281, and on July 29, 2025, it was 3280, with a decline rate of - 0.19% [3]. - Cotton (Xinjiang): On July 28, 2025, it was 15400.0, and on July 29, 2025, it was 15450.0, with a growth rate of 0.32% [3]. 3. Spread Overview - SR01 - 05: On July 28, 2025, it was 62.0, and on July 29, 2025, it was 61.0, with a decline rate of - 1.61% [3]. - SR05 - 09: On July 28, 2025, it was - 205.0, and on July 29, 2025, it was - 197.0, with a decline rate of - 3.90% [3]. - SR09 - 01: On July 28, 2025, it was 143.0, and on July 29, 2025, it was 136.0, with a decline rate of - 4.90% [3]. - CF01 - 05: On July 28, 2025, it was 65.0, and on July 29, 2025, it was 60.0, with a decline rate of - 7.69% [3]. - CF05 - 09: On July 28, 2025, it was - 75.0, and on July 29, 2025, it was 40.0, with a decline rate of - 153.33% [3]. - CF09 - 01: On July 28, 2025, it was 10.0, and on July 29, 2025, it was - 100.0, with a decline rate of - 1100.00% [3]. - Sugar 01 basis: On July 28, 2025, it was 213.0, and on July 29, 2025, it was 184.0, with a decline rate of - 13.62% [3]. - Sugar 05 basis: On July 28, 2025, it was 275.0, and on July 29, 2025, it was 245.0, with a decline rate of - 10.91% [3]. - Sugar 09 basis: On July 28, 2025, it was 70.0, and on July 29, 2025, it was 48.0, with a decline rate of - 31.43% [3]. - Cotton 01 basis: On July 28, 2025, it was 1544.0, and on July 29, 2025, it was 1555.0, with a growth rate of 0.71% [3]. - Cotton 05 basis: On July 28, 2025, it was 1609.0, and on July 29, 2025, it was 1615.0, with a growth rate of 0.37% [3]. - Cotton 09 basis: On July 28, 2025, it was 1534.0, and on July 29, 2025, it was 1655.0, with a growth rate of 7.89% [3]. 4. Import Prices - Cotton cotlookA: It remained at 78.7 from July 28 to July 29, 2025, with a growth rate of 0.00% [3]. 5. Profit Margins - Sugar import profit: It remained at 1600.5 from July 28 to July 29, 2025, with a growth rate of 0.00% [3]. 6. Options - SR509C5900: Implied volatility is 0.1005, and the futures underlying is SR509, with a historical volatility of 6.73 [3]. - SR509P5900: Implied volatility is 0.0997 [3]. - CF509C14000: Implied volatility is 0.1358, and the futures underlying is CF509, with a historical volatility of 8.71 [3]. - CF509P14000: Implied volatility is 0.1332 [3]. 7. Warehouse Receipts (sheets) - Sugar: On July 28, 2025, it was 20150.0, and on July 29, 2025, it was 19746.0, with a decline rate of - 2.00% [3]. - Cotton: On July 28, 2025, it was 9226.0, and on July 29, 2025, it was 9156.0, with a decline rate of - 0.76% [3]. Company Information - Cinda Futures Co., Ltd. is a limited liability company specializing in domestic futures business. It is wholly - owned by Cinda Securities Co., Ltd., with a registered capital of 600 million RMB. It is one of the large - scale, standardized, and high - reputation futures companies in China. It is a full - settlement member of the China Financial Futures Exchange, a full - fledged member of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, and Dalian Commodity Exchange, a member of the Shanghai International Energy Exchange and Guangzhou Futures Exchange, an observer of the China Securities Association, and an observer member of the Asset Management Association of China [8].
软商品日报:受油价上涨等因素支撑,棉花高位震荡-20250729
Xin Da Qi Huo· 2025-07-29 01:24
Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both sugar and cotton is "sideways" [1] Core Viewpoints - Sugar: Affected by consecutive droughts from autumn to spring, the emergence and early growth of sugarcane in Guangxi are unfavorable, with the growth and number of plants shorter and fewer than the same period last year. The growth of sugar beets is generally good, but there has been excessive rainfall in the Inner Mongolia production area recently, which is prone to pests and diseases and requires early prevention. Internationally, the progress of sugar production in Brazil and the growth of sugar crops in the Northern Hemisphere need to be continuously monitored [1] - Cotton: Most cotton production areas in China have entered the budding to flowering stage, with the growth progress 4 to 7 days ahead of previous years. According to the climate forecast of the China Meteorological Administration, the temperature in Xinjiang will continue to be high in July, and the number of high - temperature days will exceed the same period in previous years, exposing cotton to a high risk of heat damage. Currently, the total cotton inventory is continuously decreasing, but the downstream market shows obvious off - season characteristics, and textile enterprises are cautious in raw material procurement. Therefore, the impact of weather changes and tariff uncertainties needs to be continuously monitored [1] Data Summary Price Data - **Outer - market Quotes**: From July 27 to 28, 2025, the price of US sugar increased by 0.92% from 16.28 to 16.43 US dollars, and the price of US cotton increased by 0.10% from 68.23 to 68.3 US dollars [3] - **Spot Prices**: From July 25 to 28, 2025, the price of sugar in Nanning remained unchanged at 6050.0 yuan, the price of sugar in Kunming decreased by 0.08% from 5920.0 to 5915.0 yuan, the cotton index 328 decreased by 0.39% from 3281 to 3280, and the price of cotton in Xinjiang decreased by 0.32% from 15450.0 to 15400.0 yuan [3] Spread Data - From July 27 to 28, 2025, most sugar and cotton spreads showed a downward trend, with the SR09 - 01 spread decreasing by 15.88% and the CF09 - 01 spread decreasing by 81.82%. However, the basis of sugar 09 and cotton 01, 05, 09 showed an upward trend, with the basis of sugar 09 increasing by 59.09% [3] Import and Profit Data - From July 25 to 28, 2025, the import price of cotton cotlookA remained unchanged at 79.2, and the import profit of sugar remained unchanged at 1641.5 [3] Option and Volatility Data - The implied volatility of SR509C5800 is 0.0868, and the historical volatility of its futures underlying SR509 is 6.89; the implied volatility of CF509C14000 is 0.1383, and the historical volatility of its futures underlying CF509 is 8.52 [3] Warehouse Receipt Data - From July 25 to 28, 2025, the number of sugar warehouse receipts decreased by 2.38% from 20642.0 to 20150.0, and the number of cotton warehouse receipts decreased by 0.42% from 9265.0 to 9226.0 [3] Company Information - The report is produced by Cinda Futures Co., Ltd., a wholly - owned subsidiary of Cinda Securities Co., Ltd., with a registered capital of 600 million yuan. It is a large - scale and high - reputation futures company in China, with memberships in multiple exchanges and observer status in relevant associations [8]
软商品日报:多空交织美棉震荡运行,棉花高位震荡-20250728
Xin Da Qi Huo· 2025-07-28 01:56
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Sugar: Oscillation [1] - Cotton: Oscillation [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - Sugar: Affected by the continuous drought from autumn to spring, the emergence and early growth of sugarcane in Guangxi are unfavorable, with the growth and number of plants shorter and fewer than the same period last year. The growth of sugar beets is generally good, but there has been excessive rainfall in the Inner Mongolia production area recently, which is prone to pests and diseases and requires early prevention. Internationally, it is necessary to continue to monitor the sugar production progress in Brazil and the growth of sugar crops in the Northern Hemisphere [1]. - Cotton: Most cotton production areas in China have entered the budding to flowering stage, with the growth progress 4 to 7 days ahead of previous years. According to the climate forecast of the China Meteorological Administration, the temperature in Xinjiang will remain high in July, and the number of high - temperature days will exceed the same period in previous years, posing a high risk of heat damage to cotton. Currently, the total cotton inventory is continuously decreasing, but the downstream market shows obvious off - season characteristics. Textile enterprises are cautious in raw material procurement. Therefore, it is necessary to continuously monitor the impact of weather changes and tariff uncertainties [1]. 3. Summary According to the Data Directory 3.1 Outer Market Quotes - US sugar (in dollars): The price decreased from 16.57 on July 24, 2025, to 16.28 on July 25, 2025, with a decline of 1.75% [3]. - US cotton (in dollars): The price decreased from 68.74 on July 24, 2025, to 68.23 on July 25, 2025, with a decline of 0.74% [3]. 3.2 Spot Prices - Sugar (Nanning): The price remained at 6050.0 from July 24 to 25, 2025, with a 0.00% change [3]. - Sugar (Kunming): The price increased from 5910.0 on July 24, 2025, to 5920.0 on July 25, 2025, with an increase of 0.17% [3]. - Cotton Index 328: The price decreased from 3281 on July 24, 2025, to 3280 on July 25, 2025, with a decline of 0.09% [3]. - Cotton (Xinjiang): The price increased from 15400.0 on July 24, 2025, to 15450.0 on July 25, 2025, with an increase of 0.32% [3]. 3.3 Spread Overview - SR01 - 05: The spread increased from 53.0 on July 24, 2025, to 63.0 on July 25, 2025, with an increase of 18.87% [3]. - SR05 - 09: The spread increased from - 251.0 on July 24, 2025, to - 233.0 on July 25, 2025, with a decline of 7.17% [3]. - SR09 - 01: The spread decreased from 198.0 on July 24, 2025, to 170.0 on July 25, 2025, with a decline of 14.14% [3]. - CF01 - 05: The spread remained at 75.0 from July 24 to 25, 2025, with a 0.00% change [3]. - CF05 - 09: The spread increased from - 170.0 on July 24, 2025, to - 130.0 on July 25, 2025, with a decline of 23.53% [3]. - CF09 - 01: The spread decreased from 95.0 on July 24, 2025, to 55.0 on July 25, 2025, with a decline of 42.11% [3]. - Sugar 01 basis: The basis decreased from 242.0 on July 24, 2025, to 214.0 on July 25, 2025, with a decline of 11.57% [3]. - Sugar 05 basis: The basis decreased from 295.0 on July 24, 2025, to 277.0 on July 25, 2025, with a decline of 6.10% [3]. - Sugar 09 basis: The basis remained at 44.0 from July 24 to 25, 2025, with a 0.00% change [3]. - Cotton 01 basis: The basis decreased from 1498.0 on July 24, 2025, to 1434.0 on July 25, 2025, with a decline of 4.27% [3]. - Cotton 05 basis: The basis decreased from 1573.0 on July 24, 2025, to 1509.0 on July 25, 2025, with a decline of 4.07% [3]. - Cotton 09 basis: The basis decreased from 1403.0 on July 24, 2025, to 1379.0 on July 25, 2025, with a decline of 1.71% [3]. 3.4 Import Prices - Cotton cotlookA: The price increased from 78.7 on July 24, 2025, to 79.2 on July 25, 2025, with an increase of 0.64% [3]. 3.5 Profit Margins - Sugar import profit: The profit remained at 1582.0 from July 24 to 25, 2025, with a 0.00% change [3]. 3.6 Options - SR509C5900: Implied volatility is 0.1037, and the futures underlying is SR509 with a historical volatility of 6.95 [3]. - SR509P5900: Implied volatility is 0.1111 [3]. - CF509C14200: Implied volatility is 0.1531, and the futures underlying is CF509 with a historical volatility of 8.6 [3]. - CF509P14200: Implied volatility is 0.1511 [3]. 3.7 Warehouse Receipts (in pieces) - Sugar: The number of warehouse receipts decreased from 20940.0 on July 24, 2025, to 20642.0 on July 25, 2025, with a decline of 1.42% [3]. - Cotton: The number of warehouse receipts decreased from 9337.0 on July 24, 2025, to 9265.0 on July 25, 2025, with a decline of 0.77% [3]. 4. Company Information - The report is from Cinda Futures Co., Ltd., a limited - liability company specializing in domestic futures business. It is wholly - owned by Cinda Securities Co., Ltd., with a registered capital of 600 million RMB. It has various memberships in multiple futures exchanges and is an observer of relevant associations [8].
软商品日报:供应前景改善,白糖震荡为主-20250724
Xin Da Qi Huo· 2025-07-24 00:43
Report Industry Investment Rating - Sugar: Sideways [1] - Cotton: Sideways [1] Core Viewpoints of the Report - Sugar: Affected by the continuous drought from autumn to spring, the emergence and early growth of sugarcane in Guangxi were unfavorable, with the growth and number of plants shorter and fewer than the same period last year. The growth of sugar beets is generally good, but there has been excessive rainfall in the Inner Mongolia production area recently, which may lead to pests and diseases and requires early prevention. Internationally, attention should continue to be paid to the sugar production progress in Brazil and the growth of sugar crops in the Northern Hemisphere [1]. - Cotton: Most cotton - growing areas in China have entered the budding to flowering stage, with the growth progress 4 to 7 days earlier than in previous years. According to the climate forecast of the China Meteorological Administration, the temperature in Xinjiang will continue to be high in July, and the number of high - temperature days will exceed the same period in previous years, posing a high risk of heat damage to cotton. Currently, the total cotton inventory is decreasing, but the downstream market shows obvious off - season characteristics, and textile enterprises are cautious in raw material procurement. Therefore, attention should be paid to the impact of weather changes and tariff uncertainties [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Data Overview 1. Foreign Market Quotes - US sugar (USD): On July 21, 2025, it was 16.36, and on July 22, 2025, it was 16.26, a decrease of 0.61% [3]. - US cotton (USD): On July 21, 2025, it was 68.09, and on July 22, 2025, it was 68.26, an increase of 0.25% [3]. 2. Spot Prices - Sugar (Nanning): On July 21, 2025, it was 6060.0, and on July 22, 2025, it was 6050.0, a decrease of 0.17% [3]. - Sugar (Kunming): On July 21, 2025, it was 5920.0, and on July 22, 2025, it remained 5920.0, with a 0.00% change [3]. - Cotton Index 328: On July 21, 2025, it was 3281, and on July 22, 2025, it was 3280, a decrease of 0.26% [3]. - Cotton (Xinjiang): On July 21, 2025, it was 15400.0, and on July 22, 2025, it was 15500.0, an increase of 0.65% [3]. 3. Spread Overview - SR01 - 05: On July 21, 2025, it was 54.0, and on July 22, 2025, it was 49.0, a decrease of 9.26% [3]. - SR05 - 09: On July 21, 2025, it was - 223.0, and on July 22, 2025, it was - 219.0, a decrease of 1.79% [3]. - SR09 - 01: On July 21, 2025, it was 169.0, and on July 22, 2025, it was 170.0, an increase of 0.59% [3]. - CF01 - 05: On July 21, 2025, it was 45.0, and on July 22, 2025, it was 40.0, a decrease of 11.11% [3]. - CF05 - 09: On July 21, 2025, it was - 240.0, and on July 22, 2025, it was - 235.0, a decrease of 2.08% [3]. - CF09 - 01: On July 21, 2025, it was 195.0, and on July 22, 2025, it remained 195.0, with a 0.00% change [3]. - Sugar 01 basis: On July 21, 2025, it was 250.0, and on July 22, 2025, it was 267.0, an increase of 6.80% [3]. - Sugar 05 basis: On July 21, 2025, it was 304.0, and on July 22, 2025, it was 316.0, an increase of 3.95% [3]. - Sugar 09 basis: On July 21, 2025, it was 81.0, and on July 22, 2025, it was 97.0, an increase of 19.75% [3]. - Cotton 01 basis: On July 21, 2025, it was 1599.0, and on July 22, 2025, it was 1519.0, a decrease of 5.00% [3]. - Cotton 05 basis: On July 21, 2025, it was 1644.0, and on July 22, 2025, it was 1559.0, a decrease of 5.17% [3]. - Cotton 09 basis: On July 21, 2025, it was 1404.0, and on July 22, 2025, it was 1324.0, a decrease of 5.70% [3]. 4. Import Prices - Cotton cotlookA: On July 21, 2025, it was 79.45, and on July 22, 2025, it was 78.65, a decrease of 1.01% [3]. 5. Profit Margins - Sugar import profit: On July 21, 2025, it was 1613.0, and on July 22, 2025, it was 1630.0, an increase of 1.05% [3]. 6. Options - SR509C5800: Implied volatility is 0.0871, and the futures underlying is SR509, with a historical volatility of 7.03 [3]. - SR509P5800: Implied volatility is 0.0845 [3]. - CF509C14200: Implied volatility is 0.1357, and the futures underlying is CF509, with a historical volatility of 8.59 [3]. - CF509P14200: Implied volatility is 0.1357 [3]. 7. Warehouse Receipts (sheets) - Sugar: On July 21, 2025, it was 21437.0, and on July 22, 2025, it was 21359.0, a decrease of 0.36% [3]. - Cotton: On July 21, 2025, it was 9501.0, and on July 22, 2025, it was 9436.0, a decrease of 0.68% [3]. Company Information - Cinda Futures Co., Ltd. is a limited liability company specializing in domestic futures business. It is wholly - owned by Cinda Securities Co., Ltd., with a registered capital of 600 million RMB. It is one of the large - scale, standardized and high - reputation futures companies in China. It is a full - settlement member of the China Financial Futures Exchange, a full - fledged member of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, and Dalian Commodity Exchange, a member of the Shanghai International Energy Exchange and Guangzhou Futures Exchange, an observer of the China Securities Association, and an observer member of the Asset Management Association of China [8].
市场消息平静,软商品震荡为主
Xin Da Qi Huo· 2025-07-21 01:48
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Sugar: Oscillating [1] - Cotton: Oscillating [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - Sugar is affected by the continuous drought from autumn to spring, with unfavorable emergence and early - stage growth of sugarcane in Guangxi, while beet grows well overall but there are potential pest problems in Inner Mongolia. International factors include the need to monitor Brazil's sugar production progress and Northern Hemisphere sugar crop growth [1]. - Most cotton - growing areas in China have entered the budding - to - flowering stage, with growth 4 to 7 days ahead of previous years. High - temperature risks in Xinjiang in July and the cautious raw - material procurement of textile enterprises due to the off - season market require continuous attention to weather changes and tariff uncertainties [1]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Data Overview 3.1.1 Outer - Market Quotes - US sugar price remained at $16.79 from July 19th to 20th, with a 0.00% change [3]. - US cotton price remained at $68.76 from July 19th to 20th, with a 0.00% change [3]. 3.1.2 Spot Prices - Nanning sugar price remained at 6050.0 from July 17th to 18th, with a 0.00% change [3]. - Kunming sugar price remained at 5905.0 from July 17th to 18th, with a 0.00% change [3]. - Cotton Index 328 increased from 3280 to 3281 from July 17th to 18th, with a 1.00% change [3]. - Xinjiang cotton price increased from 15200.0 to 15300.0 from July 17th to 18th, with a 0.66% change [3]. 3.1.3 Spread Overview - All sugar and cotton spreads (SR01 - 05, SR05 - 09, etc.) remained unchanged from July 19th to 20th, with a 0.00% change [3]. 3.1.4 Import Prices - Cotton cotlookA increased from 79.3 to 79.5 from July 17th to 18th, with a 0.25% change [3]. 3.1.5 Profit Margins - Sugar import profit remained at 1579.0 from July 17th to 18th, with a 0.00% change [3]. 3.1.6 Options - SR509C5800 has an implied volatility of 0.0745 and a historical volatility of 7.05 for the underlying SR509 [3]. - SR509P5800 has an implied volatility of 0.0746 [3]. - CF509C14200 has an implied volatility of 0.1198 and a historical volatility of 9.16 for the underlying CF509 [3]. - CF509P14200 has an implied volatility of 0.1251 [3]. 3.1.7 Warehouse Receipts - Sugar warehouse receipts decreased from 21857.0 to 21477.0 from July 17th to 18th, with a - 1.74% change [3]. - Cotton warehouse receipts decreased from 9585.0 to 9532.0 from July 17th to 18th, with a - 0.55% change [3]. 3.2 Company Information - CINDA Futures Co., Ltd. is a limited - liability company specializing in domestic futures business, wholly - owned by CINDA Securities Co., Ltd., with a registered capital of 600 million RMB. It holds various memberships in multiple exchanges and associations [8].