Core Viewpoint - The investigation under the US Section 232 has led to significant market distortions, with the US experiencing a copper shortage due to excessive imports, prompting Goldman Sachs to raise its copper price forecasts for the second half of the year [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Since the initiation of the US Section 232 copper import investigation, approximately 400,000 tons of copper have been imported into the US, equivalent to 6-7 months of demand, causing shortages in non-US regions [1][2]. - The available inventory at the London Metal Exchange (LME) has decreased by about 80% this year, now representing less than a day's global usage [1][2]. - The abnormal price differential between COMEX and LME copper prices is attributed to the expectation of impending import tariffs, with COMEX prices being higher [2][3]. Group 2: Price Forecasts - Goldman Sachs has revised its LME copper price forecast for the second half of 2025 from $9,140 per ton to $9,890 per ton, expecting a peak of $10,050 per ton in August [1][4][5]. - The upward revision is based on significant global inventory mismatches and resilient economic activity in China, with a projected GDP growth rate slightly above 5% for Q2 [4]. Group 3: Inventory and Supply Outlook - The US copper inventory has surged to over 100 days of consumption, compared to just 33 days at the beginning of the year, while global inventories outside the US are below 10 days [3]. - Goldman Sachs anticipates a global inventory increase of approximately 280,000 tons in the first half of 2025, with an overall slight surplus of 10,500 tons for the year, primarily driven by a projected surplus of 400,000 tons in the US market [3]. Group 4: Tariff Implications - The timing of tariff implementation is a critical variable, with Goldman Sachs maintaining an 80% probability that a 25% tariff will be imposed on US copper imports by September [7]. - If tariffs are delayed, US imports may continue into Q4, exacerbating supply tightness in non-US markets [7]. - Goldman Sachs recommends a long position on the December COMEX-LME copper arbitrage, noting that the market currently underestimates the likelihood of a 25% or even 50% tariff [7].

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs predicts that copper prices will rise to a peak of $10,050 per ton by August 2025 due to reduced copper inventories outside the U.S. caused by tariffs and resilient economic activity in China [1] Price Forecast - Analysts have raised their average copper price forecast for the second half of the year to $9,890 per ton, an increase of 8.2% from previous estimates [1] - The firm expects copper prices to drop to $9,700 per ton by December, reflecting the assumption that the U.S. will impose a 25% tariff on imported copper by September [1]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs has raised its forecast for LME copper prices in the second half of 2025 to an average of $9,890 per ton, up from the previous estimate of $9,140 per ton [1] - It is expected that copper prices will decline to $9,700 by December of this year [1] - The peak price for copper is anticipated to reach $10,050 per ton in 2025 [1] Group 2 - The average copper price for the entire year of 2026 is projected to be $10,000 per ton, revised down from the previous forecast of $10,170 per ton [1] - By December 2026, copper prices are expected to reach $10,350 per ton [1]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs has raised its forecast for LME copper prices in the second half of 2025 to an average of $9,890, up from the previous estimate of $9,140 [1]

摩根大通预计2025年下半年铜价将平均达到9,225美元/吨。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs has raised its forecast for quarterly copper prices due to the easing of trade tensions and a potential recovery in Chinese copper demand, which may continue to support copper prices in the coming months [1] Group 1 - The easing of trade tensions is expected to positively impact copper prices [1] - A recovery in Chinese copper demand is anticipated to further support price stability [1] - The forecast adjustment reflects a more optimistic outlook for the copper market in the near term [1]

Group 1 - Citi Research has revised its three-month copper price forecast down from $10,000 per ton to $9,500 per ton due to anticipated declines in physical demand resulting from increased import tariffs and economic growth challenges in the U.S. [1] - The U.S. government has announced a 25% tariff on imported cars and parts, effective April 2, with the tariff on auto parts to be implemented by May 3, 2025 at the latest [1] - Goldman Sachs predicts LME copper prices for the next three, six, and twelve months to be $9,600, $10,000, and $10,700 per ton respectively [1] Group 2 - The upcoming CCIE 2025 SMM Copper Industry Conference will take place from April 22-25, 2025, in Nanchang, Jiangxi, focusing on the copper industry chain and featuring over 3,000 industry professionals [2] - The conference will include discussions on global copper market trends, raw material supply, and policy impacts, along with specialized forums on various segments of the copper industry [2] - The event will showcase over 100 exhibitors presenting the latest advancements in copper processing and smelting equipment, as well as new copper-based materials [2]