1月8日（周四），高盛（Goldman sachs）将2026年上半年铜价预测从每吨11,525美元上调至每吨12,750美元，理由是美国以外库存有限，存在短缺溢价。 然而，该行指出，第二季度关税公告可能标志着美国库存上升趋势的结束，并使供应过剩的全球基本面重新成为焦点。 156 5309 0867 高盛表示，他们预计铜价不会在13,000美元上方持续，并预计第二季度铜价将出现回调。 作为全球最大的铜消费国，中国产业链面临三大挑战：上游资源对外依存度攀升、中游加工环节产能过剩、下游需求受高铜价抑制。为助力行业应对变局， 上海有色网携手铜产业链企业联合编制《2026中国铜产业链分布图》中英双语版，点击此链接即可免费领取铜产业链分布图： https://s.wcd.im/v/470opZ19l/。 SMM联合制作联系人 该行指出，铜价已超过每吨约11,400美元的基本价值，但表示在第二季度之前不太可能出现回调，市场等待美国对精炼铜关税的明确决定。 刘明康 眼下COMEX铜库存继续攀升，而LME铜库存在美国关税担忧的推动下持续下降，这反过来又增加了美国以外精炼铜供应收紧的风险。 该行维持2026年第四季度铜价预测在 ...

1. 供应持续紧张： · 矿端刚性约束：全球主要矿山（如印尼Grasberg、智利El Teniente）生产干扰事件频发，新增产能不足，导致铜精矿供应紧张。 · 冶炼端面临压力：铜精矿加工费（TC/RC）已跌至负值，中国冶炼企业因原料短缺和亏损面临减产压力，可能进一步传导至精炼铜供应。 2. 需求存在结构性亮点： · 尽管传统地产领域需求疲软，但电网投资、新能源汽车、AI数据中心及配套电力设施建设成为强劲的新增长点，为铜需求提供韧性支撑。 3. 特殊的"区域库存失衡"： · 美国关税政策导致全球铜库存大量流向美国仓库，造成亚洲（包括中国）和欧洲地区现货供应紧张，从而推高了这些地区的现货升水和价格。这是当 前市场一个非常关键的特征。 4. 宏观与金融环境支撑： · 美联储降息周期下，全球流动性预期宽松，美元走弱，提升了铜等大宗商品的金融属性和配置价值。 需要关注的主要风险： · 高价抑制需求与替代风险：极端高价可能抑制部分下游消费，并加速"以铝代铜"等材料替代进程。 · 宏观政策变化：美联储的降息节奏、美国对华关税政策的最终落地情况（结果将于2026年6月30日公布），都可能引发市场剧烈波动。 · 供应端不确 ...

高盛昨天的报告将2026年铜价预测上调至11400美元/吨，核心逻辑在于预期美国铜关税将推迟至2027年 实施，这意味着美国在2026年会继续以溢价囤积铜，从而加剧非美市场的供应短缺。铜价的定价权正日 益转移到"非美市场的供需平衡"上，建议短期做多，中期警惕。因为当前铜价已包含极度拥挤的投机多 头和对AI数据中心概念的过度乐观，若关税提前或市场情绪逆转，价格将面临显著回调风险。 ①美国11月非农数据超预期 市场押注美联储鸽派转向 -评论员简佳：关税推迟+区域囤货"为铜市创造罕见的区域裂口行情，短期非美现货紧张难以缓解，价 格仍有冲击前高动能；但交易已极度拥挤，且AI数据中心贡献的增量需求被过度线性外推。策略上， 建议逢LME现货升水>200美元时逐步兑现多头，并买入2-3个月看跌期权对冲关税提前或AI情绪反转的 风险；中期等待关税落地后全球库存再平衡，再于9,800-10,200美元区间重新建立多头头寸。 美国11月非农就业人口增长6.4万人，超出预期的5万人，但失业率4.6%，高于预期的4.5%。数据公布 后，美元指数短线走低，跌破98关口；现货黄金小幅上涨。临近年末，市场避险情绪主导，投资者谨慎 感增强。 ...

Group 1 - Citi predicts copper prices will rise to an average of $12,000 per ton by Q2 2026, with an optimistic scenario reaching $14,000 per ton [1] - For the remainder of this year, copper prices are expected to trade around $11,000 per ton, reflecting a positive outlook for 2026 despite recent weak physical demand [1] - The mixed global manufacturing sentiment indicates limited growth potential for cyclical copper demand for the rest of the year [1] Group 2 - Due to a strong base in 2024, year-on-year consumption growth is expected to remain weak in Q4 2025, alongside sluggish manufacturing activity [1] - However, a recovery in demand is anticipated in 2026, supported by loose fiscal policies in the U.S. and global monetary policies [1] - China's copper industry faces three major challenges: increasing reliance on foreign upstream resources, excess capacity in the midstream processing sector, and downstream demand being suppressed by high copper prices [1]

Group 1 - Citi projects that the average copper price will reach $12,000 per ton by Q2 2026, with a bullish scenario potentially rising to $14,000 per ton [1]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs has revised down its global copper mine supply forecasts for the second half of 2025 by 160,000 tons and for 2026 by 200,000 tons, indicating a bearish outlook for copper production growth in the near term [1] Group 1: Supply Forecast Adjustments - The copper production growth expectations for 2025 and 2026 have been lowered to year-on-year increases of 0.2% and 1.9%, respectively, down from previous expectations of 0.8% and 2.2% [1] - The latest adjustments imply an upward risk to the forecast for LME copper prices in December 2025, which is set at $9,700 per ton [1] Group 2: Price Predictions - Copper prices are expected to stabilize in the range of $10,200 to $10,500 per ton [1] - The long-term bullish forecast for copper prices before 2027 is set at $10,750 per ton [1]

Core Viewpoint - Citigroup has revised its basic scenario forecast, indicating that copper prices are expected to drop to $9,200 per ton in the next three months, up from a previous expectation of $8,800 per ton [1] Group 1 - Citigroup's updated forecast reflects a significant adjustment in the expected price of copper [1]

Core Insights - HSBC reports that the large accumulation of copper inventory in the U.S. may decrease, weakening the demand for copper in the country [1] - Current COMEX copper inventory has reached a 21-year high due to buyers anticipating larger tariffs on copper imports in the U.S. [1] - HSBC forecasts an average copper price of $4.24 per pound in 2025 and $4.15 per pound in 2026 [1]

Core Viewpoint - A Reuters survey predicts that the average LME copper price will be $9,525 per ton in 2025, $9,796 per ton in 2026, and $9,143 per ton in 2024 [1] Price Forecast - The average LME copper price for 2024 is expected to be $9,143 per ton [1] - The average LME copper price for 2025 is projected to rise to $9,525 per ton [1] - The average LME copper price for 2026 is anticipated to further increase to $9,796 per ton [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Chilean Ministry of Finance projects the average price of copper to be $4.28 per pound in 2025, slightly higher than the anticipated price of $4.26 per pound in 2024 [1] Group 1 - The average copper price forecast for 2025 is $4.28 per pound [1] - The expected average price for copper in 2024 is $4.26 per pound [1]