格隆汇9月25日｜高盛：将2025年下半年的全球矿山(铜)供应预测下调了16万吨，将2026年的预测下调 了20万吨。将2025/2026年铜矿产量增长预期下调至同比+0.2%/1.9%，此前预期为+0.8%/2.2%。最新中 断意味着对2025年12月伦敦金属交易所(LME)铜价9,700美元/吨的预测风险偏向上行，预计铜价将稳定 在10,200至10,500美元/吨区间。对2027年前铜价的长期看涨预测为每吨10,750美元。 ...

花旗8月15日修正基本情景预测显示，未来三个月铜价将跌至每吨9,200美元（此前预期为每吨8,800美 元）。（新华财经） ...

（文章来源：新华财经） 汇丰银行在一份报告中说，美国积累的大量铜库存现在可能会减少，削弱美国对铜的需求。因买家预期 美国对铜征收更大关税，当前COMEX铜库存攀升至21年高位。汇丰银行预测，2025年铜价平均为每磅 4.24美元，2026年为每磅4.15美元。 ...

路透调查：预计2025年LME铜价平均为9525美元/吨，2026年为9796美元/吨，而2024年为9143美元/吨。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chilean Ministry of Finance projects the average price of copper to be $4.28 per pound in 2025, slightly higher than the anticipated price of $4.26 per pound in 2024 [1] Group 1 - The average copper price forecast for 2025 is $4.28 per pound [1] - The expected average price for copper in 2024 is $4.26 per pound [1]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs maintains its copper price forecast for the end of 2025 at $9,700 per ton [1] - The annual average copper prices for 2026 and 2027 are projected to be $10,000 and $10,750 per ton, respectively [1]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs maintains its year-end LME copper price forecast at $9,700 per ton for December 2025, while adjusting the baseline forecast for U.S. copper import tariffs from 25% to 50% [1] Group 1 - The risk of copper prices exceeding $10,000 in the third quarter has decreased [1] - U.S. copper import volumes are expected to accelerate in the coming weeks due to increased motivation to preemptively respond to tariff implementation [1]

Core Viewpoint - Deutsche Bank forecasts that copper prices will reach $9,500 per ton by the end of this year [1] Group 1 - The forecast indicates a bullish outlook for copper prices in the near term [1]

Core Viewpoint - Deutsche Bank forecasts that copper prices will reach $9,500 per ton by the end of this year [1] Group 1 - The forecast indicates a bullish outlook for copper prices in the near term [1]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs has raised its copper price forecast for the second half of 2025 to an average of $9,890 per ton, up from a previous estimate of $9,140 per ton, anticipating a peak of $10,050 per ton in August [2][4][23] - The ongoing Section 232 copper investigation in the U.S. has led to significant discrepancies between COMEX and LME copper prices, resulting in the U.S. over-importing approximately 400,000 tons of copper this year [2][5][18] - Despite a global copper surplus, concerns about regional shortages outside the U.S. have intensified, tightening the LME copper curve and leading to a significant spot premium [2][5][9] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs expects U.S. copper inventories to increase by 150,000 tons in Q3, followed by a decrease of 120,000 tons in Q4 after the implementation of tariffs [18][23] - The firm predicts a slight global copper surplus of 105,000 tons by the end of 2025, with a deficit of 100,000 tons in China and 200,000 tons in other regions [13][18] - The anticipated 25% tariff on copper imports by September is expected to further influence market dynamics, potentially leading to a significant increase in the COMEX-LME price spread [3][36] Group 3 - Goldman Sachs has reiterated its recommendation to go long on the December 2025 COMEX-LME copper arbitrage, citing that the current market is underestimating the risks of tariffs [3][36] - The firm has adjusted its 2026 copper price forecast to an average of $10,000 per ton, down from $10,170 per ton, while still expecting a slight deficit in the market [30][34] - Concerns regarding solar demand growth have led to a downward revision of global solar demand forecasts for 2026 and 2027, impacting overall copper demand projections [31][33]