Core Viewpoint - The article highlights that Trump's 50% tariff on copper imports also applies to refined copper, indicating a significant impact on the copper industry and related markets [1] Industry Summary - The imposition of a 50% tariff on copper imports is expected to affect both raw and refined copper sectors, potentially leading to increased costs for manufacturers and consumers [1] - This tariff could influence global copper supply chains, as the U.S. is a major consumer of copper, and such tariffs may lead to shifts in sourcing strategies among companies [1] Company Summary - Companies involved in copper production and refining may face challenges due to the increased costs associated with the tariff, which could affect their profit margins and pricing strategies [1] - The tariff may also lead to a reevaluation of investment strategies within the copper sector, as companies assess the long-term implications of such trade policies on their operations [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Mexican President suggests waiting for further developments regarding Trump's proposed tariffs on copper imports, indicating a cautious approach to potential trade implications [1] Group 1 - The Mexican government is monitoring the situation closely and has not made any immediate decisions regarding the impact of the tariffs on the copper industry [1]

Core Viewpoint - The London Metal Exchange (LME) copper prices reached a three-month high due to uncertainties surrounding U.S. tariffs, which increased the premium of U.S. copper over LME copper, despite a moderate inflow of LME copper stocks alleviating tightness in the market [1][3]. Group 1: Copper Market - On July 2, LME three-month copper rose by $79, or 0.8%, closing at $10,013 per ton, with an intraday high of $10,020.5, the highest level since March 26 [1][2]. - The premium of U.S. Comex copper over LME copper is 14%, as market expectations suggest that the investigation into potential U.S. copper import tariffs will take longer, while the White House focuses on "reciprocal" tariff negotiations [3][4]. - Alastair Munro from Marex stated that U.S. copper is the real leader in the market, with LME spot copper contracts trading at a premium of $85 per ton over three-month copper, down from $320 per ton last week, the highest level since November 2021 [4]. Group 2: Other Metals Market - LME three-month aluminum increased by $21.5, or 0.83%, closing at $2,620.0 per ton [5]. - LME three-month zinc rose by $43.5, or 1.6%, closing at $2,757.5 per ton [6]. - LME three-month lead increased by $21.5, or 1.05%, closing at $2,059.5 per ton [7]. - LME three-month nickel rose by $96, or 0.63%, closing at $15,302.0 per ton [8]. - LME three-month tin increased by $53, or 0.16%, closing at $33,714.0 per ton [9].

Core Viewpoint - The investigation under the US Section 232 has led to significant market distortions, with the US experiencing a copper shortage due to excessive imports, prompting Goldman Sachs to raise its copper price forecasts for the second half of the year [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Since the initiation of the US Section 232 copper import investigation, approximately 400,000 tons of copper have been imported into the US, equivalent to 6-7 months of demand, causing shortages in non-US regions [1][2]. - The available inventory at the London Metal Exchange (LME) has decreased by about 80% this year, now representing less than a day's global usage [1][2]. - The abnormal price differential between COMEX and LME copper prices is attributed to the expectation of impending import tariffs, with COMEX prices being higher [2][3]. Group 2: Price Forecasts - Goldman Sachs has revised its LME copper price forecast for the second half of 2025 from $9,140 per ton to $9,890 per ton, expecting a peak of $10,050 per ton in August [1][4][5]. - The upward revision is based on significant global inventory mismatches and resilient economic activity in China, with a projected GDP growth rate slightly above 5% for Q2 [4]. Group 3: Inventory and Supply Outlook - The US copper inventory has surged to over 100 days of consumption, compared to just 33 days at the beginning of the year, while global inventories outside the US are below 10 days [3]. - Goldman Sachs anticipates a global inventory increase of approximately 280,000 tons in the first half of 2025, with an overall slight surplus of 10,500 tons for the year, primarily driven by a projected surplus of 400,000 tons in the US market [3]. Group 4: Tariff Implications - The timing of tariff implementation is a critical variable, with Goldman Sachs maintaining an 80% probability that a 25% tariff will be imposed on US copper imports by September [7]. - If tariffs are delayed, US imports may continue into Q4, exacerbating supply tightness in non-US markets [7]. - Goldman Sachs recommends a long position on the December COMEX-LME copper arbitrage, noting that the market currently underestimates the likelihood of a 25% or even 50% tariff [7].

Group 1 - LME copper prices fell under pressure from a stronger dollar but recorded the largest monthly gain in eight months due to tightening short-term supply, with a 4.1% increase in May [1] - LME three-month copper closed at $9,498 per ton, down $70 or 0.73% on May 30 [2] - LME registered copper inventories have decreased by 45% since mid-February, reaching 149,875 tons, the lowest level in nearly a year, supporting copper price increases [3] Group 2 - The premium of LME spot copper over three-month contracts reached $51.6 per ton, the highest since November 2022, indicating concerns over short-term supply [3] - The strong dollar and the reinstatement of tariffs by the U.S. government have dampened market optimism, putting overall pressure on industrial metals [4] - The focus is on the upcoming official Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) from China, a major metal-consuming country [5] Group 3 - The Yangshan copper premium, which measures China's willingness to import copper, fell by 6.5% to $86 per ton this week [6] - The Chinese commodity futures market will be closed on Monday due to the Dragon Boat Festival holiday [7]

Group 1 - Copper prices declined on May 16, but are expected to rise this week, with long-term demand uncertainty limiting further increases [2] - The LME benchmark copper contract fell by $81.5 or 0.85% to $9,495.5 per ton [3] - The most actively traded June copper contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed down 250 yuan or 0.32% at 78,140 yuan per ton [4] Group 2 - This week, LME copper rose approximately 1%, while Shanghai copper prices increased about 0.6% [5] - A metal analyst noted that traders are pleased with the US-China trade decisions, but uncertainty remains about future developments after 90 days [6] - Analysts expect Shanghai copper to hover around 78,000-79,000 yuan per ton in the short term, reflecting mixed market sentiment [7] Group 3 - Copper inventories at Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouses surged 34% this week to 108,142 tons [8] - The rapid increase in copper inventory may exert short-term pressure on copper prices, according to traders [9] - Other LME metals also experienced declines, with three-month aluminum down 0.8%, zinc down 1.1%, lead down 1.1%, and tin down 0.5% [9]

Group 1 - London copper prices increased due to concerns over recent supply tightness, with three-month copper rising by $62 to $9,440 per ton [1] - The three-month aluminum price rose by $31.50 to $2,465.50 per ton, while zinc and lead also saw increases of $16 and $10 respectively [2] - Nickel and tin prices, however, decreased, with nickel falling by $65 to $15,550 per ton and tin down by $102 to $31,919 per ton [2] Group 2 - COMEX copper inventories increased by 40% this month amid investigations into potential new copper import tariffs by Washington, with a significant premium of $1,443 per ton over LME copper [3] - The global copper market is expected to see a surplus increase from 138,000 tons last year to 289,000 tons this year, with continued oversupply projected for next year [3] - The U.S. trade deficit reached a record high of $162 billion in March, indicating a significant drag on first-quarter GDP growth, estimated to be as much as 1.9 percentage points [3]