Report Summary 1. Report Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided text 2. Core Viewpoints - The tariff policy is fluctuating, and the Fed's stance is hawkish. The macro - environment remains cautious. Given the current rapid inventory reduction, low absolute inventory, and rigid supply, there is strong support for the aluminum price at the lower end, and the aluminum price will maintain a range - bound oscillation in the short term. As it enters the off - season, the pressure at the 20,000 - yuan mark will gradually increase, and the center of the aluminum price may shift downward in the second half of the second quarter [2][8] 3. Summary by Directory Transaction Data - From April 11th to April 18th, 2025, the price of LME aluminum for 3 months decreased from 2397 yuan/ton to 2385 yuan/ton; SHFE aluminum continuous three decreased from 19595 dollars/ton to 19590 dollars/ton. The Shanghai - London aluminum ratio decreased by 0.1. LME aluminum inventory decreased by 12175 tons to 434150 tons, and SHFE aluminum warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 12769 tons to 92475 tons. The electrolytic aluminum theoretical average cost decreased by 87.6 yuan/ton to 16382.04 yuan/ton, and the electrolytic aluminum weekly average profit increased by 57.1 yuan/ton to 3345.46 yuan/ton [3] Market Review - The weekly average price of Yangtze River spot was 19728 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30.5 yuan/ton from the previous week; the weekly average price of Southern Storage spot was 19736 yuan/ton, a decrease of 38 yuan/ton from the previous week [4] - The US tariff policy has new developments, such as the exemption of "reciprocal tariffs" for some electronic products. Trump said he expected to reach a trade agreement with the EU. The Fed Chairman warned about the inflation effect of Trump's tariff policy. Economic data in the US, Eurozone, and China were released, with China's Q1 GDP growing by 5.4% year - on - year [5][6] - On the consumer side, the operating rates of domestic downstream aluminum processing industries are differentiated. Aluminum ingot and aluminum rod inventories decreased significantly in the past two weeks. As of April 17th, aluminum ingot social inventory was 68.8 million tons, a decrease of 5.5 million tons from the previous Thursday, and aluminum rods were 22.2 million tons, a decrease of 2.59 million tons [7] Market Outlook - The US reciprocal tariff has eased slightly, but it may still fluctuate. China's Q1 economic data is better than expected, and there is a high expectation of incremental policy implementation. The supply of electrolytic aluminum maintains high - start capacity, and the consumption is strong during the peak season. In summary, the aluminum price will oscillate in the short term and may decline in the second half of the second quarter [8] Industry News - The US has imposed high tariffs on China, and China has responded. In March 2025, China's aluminum product output was 598.2 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.3% [9][10] Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including LME aluminum 3 - SHFE aluminum continuous three price trends, Shanghai - London aluminum ratio, LME aluminum premium, electrolytic aluminum cost - profit, and inventory seasonal changes [12][16][19]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - Trump's tariff measures initially caused market panic, but the extension of tariffs for most countries and good US inflation data eased market sentiment. The domestic expectation of loose policies remains high. The aluminum supply side mainly involves capacity transfer, with little change in operating capacity. On the consumption side, downstream aluminum processing enterprises have stable new orders and increased willingness to buy at low prices, leading to a significant reduction in aluminum social inventory. Although the risk sentiment has cooled, attention should be paid to the direction of China - US trade negotiations and potential tail - risks of tariffs. The aluminum price is expected to fluctuate widely in the range of 19,500 - 20,000 yuan/ton, supported by factors such as low supply elasticity, seasonal consumption peak, and low inventory [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Data - LME aluminum 3 - month price increased from 2385.5 to 2397 yuan/ton, SHFE aluminum continuous third contract decreased from 20330 to 19595 dollars/ton, the Shanghai - London aluminum ratio decreased from 8.3 to 8.2, LME spot premium decreased from - 31.71 to - 37.46 dollars/ton, LME aluminum inventory decreased by 14525 tons to 442225 tons, SHFE aluminum warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 26388 tons to 105244 tons, aluminum ingot social inventory decreased by 2.1 tons to 74.4 tons, and aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 0.94 tons to 23.51 tons [4]. 3.2 Market Review - In the spot market, the Yangtze River spot weekly average price was 19758 yuan/ton, a decrease of 799.5 yuan/ton from last week; the Southern Reserve spot weekly average price was 19698 yuan/ton, a decrease of 824.5 yuan/ton from last week. In the macro - aspect, the US's tariff measures and the European's response affected the market. The US March CPI growth rate decreased significantly, but inflation may rise after tariff increases. The market is still cautious [5]. - In the consumption end, the domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises' operating rate decreased by 0.38% to 62.2%. The industry will continue the pattern of "demand stratification and profit reconstruction". Three variables need to be focused on, and the SMM predicts that the operating rate may drop to 61.5% next week [6]. - In terms of inventory, on April 7, the electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 3.0 tons compared with Monday and 2.1 tons compared with last Thursday; the domestic mainstream consumption area aluminum rod inventory decreased by 1.29 tons compared with Monday [7]. 3.3 Market Outlook - The extension of tariffs by Trump has cooled the market risk sentiment, but attention should be paid to the China - US trade negotiation and potential tariff tail - risks. The fundamentals of low supply elasticity, seasonal consumption peak, and low inventory support the aluminum price, which is expected to fluctuate widely in the range of 19,500 - 20,000 yuan/ton [3][8]. 3.4 Industry News - In March, the retail sales of the passenger vehicle market reached 1.94 million, with a year - on - year increase of 14.4% and a month - on - month increase of 40.2%. The retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 991,000, with a year - on - year increase of 38% and a month - on - month increase of 45%. The penetration rate of new energy vehicles in the domestic passenger vehicle market was 51.1%, an increase of 8.7 percentage points compared with the same period last year. The 350,000 - ton green - power aluminum project of Inner Mongolia Huomei Hongjun Aluminum and Electricity Company plans to complete the civil engineering in early July [9]. 3.5 Related Charts - The content provides multiple charts including LME aluminum 3 - SHFE aluminum continuous third price trend, Shanghai - London aluminum ratio, LME aluminum premium, Shanghai - Guangdong price difference, domestic and imported alumina prices, electrolytic aluminum cost - profit, electrolytic aluminum inventory seasonal change, and aluminum rod inventory seasonal change [10][11][15].