Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The Indonesian government's PNBP policy restricts issuance, increasing the cost of nickel resource supply, and the premium of domestic trade ore remains stable. The supply of nickel ore from the Philippines has recovered, but the domestic nickel ore port inventory has decreased, resulting in a tight raw material situation. In July, the production rhythm of leading enterprises remained stable, the output of a few smelters increased, and new production capacity is still planned to be put into operation, driving a slight increase in the overall refined nickel output. On the demand side, the profit of stainless - steel plants has improved, and the plants have increased production. The production and sales of new energy vehicles continue to rise, but the demand for ternary batteries is limited. Recently, the nickel price has declined, the downstream purchasing atmosphere at low prices has improved, the spot premium has risen, and the domestic inventory has slightly decreased. The overseas LME inventory has also decreased. Technically, the position increases while the price falls, indicating a divergence between long and short positions. It is expected to fluctuate widely within a range. Operationally, it is recommended to wait and see or conduct range - bound operations, with a reference range of 119,500 - 124,000 yuan/ton [3] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai nickel is 119,930 yuan/ton, down 400 yuan/ton; the spread between the September - October contracts of Shanghai nickel is - 130 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. The LME 3 - month nickel price is 15,060 US dollars/ton, down 110 US dollars/ton. The position of the main contract of Shanghai nickel is 50,856 lots, down 5,111 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai nickel is - 31,236 lots, down 512 lots. The LME nickel inventory is 209,328 tons, down 1,086 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory is 26,962 tons, up 768 tons. The LME nickel cancelled warrants total 10,008 tons, down 1,086 tons. The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai nickel is 22,559 tons, down 282 tons [3] 现货市场 - The SMM 1 nickel spot price is 120,900 yuan/ton, down 750 yuan/ton. The average spot price of 1 nickel plate in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 120,800 yuan/ton, down 950 yuan/ton. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The bonded warehouse (warehouse receipt) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 27,900 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the NI main contract is 970 yuan/ton, down 350 yuan/ton. The LME nickel (spot/three - month) premium is - 205.19 US dollars/ton, down 10.54 US dollars/ton [3] Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of nickel ore is 434.66 million tons, an increase of 41.94 million tons. The total port inventory of nickel ore is 1,095.16 million tons, an increase of 61.82 million tons. The average monthly import unit price of nickel ore is 65.84 US dollars/ton, down 7.57 US dollars/ton. The tax - included price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 41.71 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged [3] Industry Situation - The monthly output of electrolytic nickel is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons. The total monthly output of ferronickel is 22,200 metal tons, a decrease of 400 metal tons. The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 17,215.27 tons, a decrease of 472.3 tons. The monthly import volume of ferronickel is 1.0414 million tons, an increase of 193,200 tons [3] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.6981 million tons, a decrease of 45,900 tons. The total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 582,700 tons, a decrease of 10,200 tons [3] Industry News - In August, the LPR quotation remained unchanged: the over - 5 - year LPR was 3.5%, and the 1 - year LPR was 3%. On August 18, Wang Yi, a member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Minister of Foreign Affairs, held talks with Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar in New Delhi. The two sides had positive, constructive, and forward - looking discussions on bilateral, regional, and international issues of common concern and reached 10 achievements. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments further regulated the competition order of the photovoltaic industry and curbed low - price disorderly competition [3]

Report Main Points 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The report suggests that the nickel price is expected to have a wide - range short - term interval fluctuation. It recommends either temporary observation or interval operation, with a reference range of 120,000 - 125,000 yuan/ton. The Indonesian government's PNBP policy restricts supply and raises costs, while Philippine supply recovers. Domestic nickel ore ports see a decline in inventory, and raw materials are tight. Refined nickel production slightly increases, stainless - steel production decreases, and new - energy vehicle production rises but battery demand is limited. Recently, the nickel price dropped, leading to increased downstream purchases, higher spot premiums, and a decline in domestic social inventory while LME inventory increased. Technically, with falling positions and rising prices, there is a divergence between bulls and bears, and the price stands above M60 [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai nickel is 121,850 yuan/ton, up 780 yuan; the 08 - 09 contract spread is - 200 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan. LME 3 - month nickel is at 15,130 dollars/ton, up 75 dollars. The main - contract position of Shanghai nickel is 81,103 hands, down 4,949 hands. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 23,562 hands, down 753 hands. LME nickel inventory is 211,212 tons, down 240 tons. Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory is 25,750 tons, up 299 tons. The warrant quantity of Shanghai nickel is 20,687 tons, down 102 tons [3]. 3.2现货市场 - The SMM1 nickel spot price is 122,150 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the average spot price of 1 nickel plate in Yangtze River is 122,150 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 dollars/ton, unchanged; the bonded - warehouse (warrant) price is 85 dollars/ton, unchanged. The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 27,900 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the NI main contract is 300 yuan/ton, down 730 yuan. The LME nickel (spot/3 - month) premium is - 207.28 dollars/ton, down 1.64 dollars [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of nickel ore is 434.66 million tons, up 41.94 million tons; the total port inventory of nickel ore is 994.36 million tons, up 6.49 million tons. The average monthly import price of nickel ore is 65.84 dollars/ton, down 7.57 dollars/ton. The tax - included price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 41.71 dollars/wet ton, unchanged [3]. 3.4产业情况 - The monthly electrolytic nickel production is 29,430 tons, up 1,120 tons; the total monthly nickel - iron production is 22,600 metal tons, down 1,300 metal tons. The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 17,215.27 tons, down 472.3 tons; the monthly import volume of nickel - iron is 1.0414 million tons, up 0.1932 million tons [3]. 3.5下游情况 - The monthly production of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.744 million tons, down 40,700 tons; the weekly total inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 608,000 tons, up 2,300 tons [3]. 3.6行业消息 - Indian media reports that Modi will visit China from August 31 to September 1 to attend the SCO Tianjin Summit. Trump plans to impose a 100% tariff on chip products, exempting companies building factories in the US like Apple and TSMC. The US - Japan trade agreement has ongoing differences, and the US plans to add a 15% tariff. Fed Governor Cook says the July employment report is "worrying" and may signal a turning point in the US economy [3]. 3.7观点总结 - The Indonesian government's policy restricts supply and raises costs, Philippine supply recovers, but domestic nickel ore ports' inventory declines. In July, leading smelters maintained stable production, some increased output, and new capacity is planned, increasing overall refined nickel production. Stainless - steel mills cut production due to profit compression, new - energy vehicle production rises but ternary - battery demand is limited. Recently, the nickel price dropped, leading to downstream purchases, higher spot premiums, and a decline in domestic social inventory while LME inventory increased. Technically, with falling positions and rising prices, there is a divergence between bulls and bears, and the price stands above M60, expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term [3].

Group 1: Report Title and Authors - The report focuses on nickel and stainless steel, predicting a short - term wide - range oscillating trend [1] - The research team is the Nanhua New Energy & Precious Metals Research Team, including Xia Yingying and Guan Chenghan [1] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - The intraday Shanghai nickel bottomed out and oscillated. The news of Indonesia's quota increase to 3.2 billion tons needs verification, and the premium has increased. There is an expected increase in the supply of Philippine nickel ore, and the impact of the rainy season is gradually weakening. The nickel - iron price stabilized during the day. Some steel mills in China and Indonesia announced production cuts, mainly affecting the output of 200 - series and 300 - series stainless steel. The demand in the off - season is sluggish. The nickel salt in the new energy chain declined due to the nickel price. The external market corrected to some extent, and the subsequent trend of LME nickel should be monitored [3] - There are both positive and negative factors. Positive factors include the Sino - US trade tariff agreement and the Philippine government's plan to ban nickel ore exports in June 2025. Negative factors include the increasing supply of ore at the end of the Philippine rainy season, high stainless - steel inventory with no obvious improvement in demand, anti - dumping investigations by multiple stainless - steel trading countries, and the news of Indonesia's quota increase [4] Group 4: Price and Market Data Nickel - The predicted price range of Shanghai nickel is 117,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton, with a current volatility of 15.01% and a historical percentile of 2.8% [2] - The latest values of Shanghai nickel main contract, continuous 1, continuous 2, and continuous 3 are 120,480 yuan/ton, 123,000 yuan/ton, 123,150 yuan/ton, and 123,370 yuan/ton respectively. The LME nickel 3M is 15,095 US dollars/ton. The trading volume increased by 14.07% to 181,192 lots, the open interest decreased by 3.91% to 102,540 lots, the warehouse receipt quantity decreased by 0.78% to 22,170 tons, and the basis of the main contract increased by 29.8% to - 1,980 yuan/ton [2][5] Stainless Steel - The latest values of stainless - steel main contract, continuous 1, continuous 2, and continuous 3 are 12,690 yuan/ton, 12,875 yuan/ton, 12,925 yuan/ton, and 12,735 yuan/ton respectively. The trading volume decreased by 20.33% to 139,550 lots, the open interest decreased by 1.13% to 101,554 lots, the warehouse receipt quantity decreased by 1.25% to 131,555 tons, and the basis of the main contract increased by 21.47% to 990 yuan/ton [6] Group 5: Inventory Data - Domestic social nickel inventory is 42,389 tons, a decrease of 1,762 tons; LME nickel inventory is 200,142 tons, a decrease of 720 tons; stainless - steel social inventory is 973.9 tons, a decrease of 6.8 tons; nickel pig iron inventory is 29,554.5 tons, an increase of 1,158 tons [7] Group 6: Management Strategies Inventory Management - When the product sales price falls and there is a risk of inventory impairment, short Shanghai nickel futures according to the inventory level to lock in profits and hedge against the risk of spot price decline, with a hedging ratio of 60%. Sell call options with a hedging ratio of 50% [2] Procurement Management - When the company has future production and procurement needs and is worried about the rise in raw material prices, buy Shanghai nickel forward contracts according to the production plan to lock in production costs in advance on the futures market. Also, sell put options and buy out - of - the - money call options, with the hedging ratio determined by the procurement plan [2] Group 7: Graphical Information - There are graphs showing the trends of Shanghai nickel futures main contract closing price, LME nickel (3 - month) electronic - disk closing price, stainless - steel main contract closing price, nickel spot average price,上期所镍仓单库存 seasonality, Philippine red - laterite nickel ore 1.5% (FOB) average price, production profit rate of nickel sulfate by different raw materials, battery - grade nickel sulfate premium over first - grade nickel beans, Chinese 8 - 12% nickel pig iron ex - factory price, and Chinese 304 stainless - steel cold - rolled coil profit rate seasonality, etc. [8][10][12][13][15][17][21][22][23]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals and macro - situation of nickel and stainless steel are generally bearish [1] - The intraday price of Shanghai nickel dropped by 2.1%, breaking below the 120,000 mark, and the short - term cost support may fail [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price and Volatility - The predicted price range of Shanghai nickel is 117,000 - 126,000, with a current volatility (20 - day rolling) of 15.02% and a historical percentile of 2.8% [2] - The latest price of Shanghai nickel main contract is 119,950 yuan/ton, with a 0% change; LME nickel 3M is 15,380 dollars/ton, with a 0.19% change [8] - The latest price of stainless steel main contract is 12,680 yuan/ton, with a 0% change [9] 2. Management Strategies Inventory Management - When there is a risk of inventory impairment due to falling product sales prices, short Shanghai nickel futures according to inventory levels to lock in profits and hedge against spot price decline risks, with a hedging ratio of 60% using the Shanghai nickel main contract and 50% by selling call options [2] Procurement Management - When the company has future production procurement needs and is worried about rising raw material prices, buy Shanghai nickel forward contracts according to the production plan to lock in production costs, and the hedging ratio is based on the procurement plan; also sell put options and buy out - of - the - money call options, with the hedging ratio based on the procurement plan [2] 3. Market Influencing Factors Core Contradictions - There is an expectation of increased supply in the nickel ore market as the impact of the rainy season in the Philippines gradually weakens, and the price bottom is loosening - The price of nickel iron has stopped falling and rebounded. Some large stainless - steel manufacturers in Indonesia have announced production cuts, and the demand in the off - season is pessimistic - The price of the new - energy link has stabilized due to intermediate products, but the short - term impact is limited - The spot market at the current price level has relatively active trading [3] Bullish Factors - China and the US have reached a tariff agreement - The Philippine government plans to ban nickel ore exports in June 2025 [4] Bearish Factors - At the end of the rainy season in the Philippines, the supply of nickel ore is gradually increasing - Stainless - steel inventories remain at a high level, and demand shows no obvious improvement - Multiple stainless - steel trading countries have launched anti - dumping investigations - The overall weakness of the new - energy link may drag down the industrial chain [7] 4. Inventory Situation - Domestic social nickel inventory is 42,389 tons, a decrease of 1,762 tons compared to the previous period - LME nickel inventory is 200,862 tons, an increase of 864 tons - Stainless - steel social inventory is 973.9 tons, a decrease of 6.8 tons - Nickel pig iron inventory is 29,554.5 tons, an increase of 1,158 tons [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Due to the implementation of Indonesia's PNBP policy, the supply cost of nickel resources has increased, and the premium of domestic trade ore has been stable. The cost of domestic smelters has steadily increased, and some smelters are facing losses. Meanwhile, the production capacity of nickel - iron in Indonesia has been released rapidly, and the output has rebounded significantly. On the demand side, stainless - steel prices have weakened. With high raw material costs, stainless - steel plants are experiencing profit inversions and there are expectations of production cuts. The spot procurement demand from downstream is weak. Although the demand for new energy vehicles continues to rise, its impact is limited due to the small proportion. Recently, domestic inventories have declined oscillatingly, while overseas inventories have continued to accumulate. Technically, the trading is cautious with reduced positions, and it faces resistance at MA60. It is recommended to wait and see for now [3] 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai nickel is 124,630 yuan/ton, with a change of 910 yuan; the price difference between the May - June contracts of Shanghai nickel is - 180 yuan/ton, with a change of - 160 yuan. The price of LME 3 - month nickel is 15,430 dollars/ton, with a change of 200 dollars. The position of the main contract of Shanghai nickel is 67,940 hands, with a decrease of 1,455 hands. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai nickel is 2,030 hands, with a decrease of 555 hands. The LME nickel inventory is 200,082 tons, with a decrease of 336 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory is 28,675 tons, with a decrease of 912 tons. The LME nickel cancelled warrants total 20,658 tons, with a decrease of 336 tons. The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai nickel is 24,125 tons, with a decrease of 183 tons [3] 3.2现货市场 - The SMM 1 nickel spot price is 125,575 yuan/ton, with an increase of 400 yuan; the average spot price of 1 nickel plate in Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals is 125,350 yuan/ton, with an increase of 300 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 100 dollars/ton, with no change; the bonded warehouse (warehouse receipt) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 100 dollars/ton, with no change. The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 28,900 yuan/ton, with no change. The basis of the NI main contract is 945 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 510 yuan. The LME nickel (spot/three - month) premium is - 193.01 dollars/ton, with an increase of 0.88 dollars [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of nickel ore is 153.52 million tons, with an increase of 38.91 million tons. The total port inventory of nickel ore is 685.43 million tons, with an increase of 1.46 million tons. The average monthly import unit price of nickel ore is 111.85 dollars/ton, with a decrease of 17.44 dollars. The含税 price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 41.71 dollars/wet ton, with no change [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel output is 29,430 tons, with an increase of 1,120 tons. The total monthly nickel - iron output is 2.28 million metal tons, with a decrease of 0.05 million metal tons. The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 8,559.43 tons, with an increase of 661.27 tons. The monthly import volume of nickel - iron is 1.0133 billion tons, with an increase of 104.6 million tons [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 24.75 million tons. The total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 64.67 million tons, with an increase of 0.79 million tons [3] 3.6 Industry News - US non - farm payrolls increased by 177,000 in April, higher than the expected 130,000, and the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.2%. The final value of the Eurozone's manufacturing PMI in April was 49, higher than the expected 48.7 and the initial value of 48.7. The final value of France's manufacturing PMI in April was 48.7, the highest since January 2023. The final value of Germany's manufacturing PMI in April was 48.4, the highest since August 2022. China's manufacturing PMI in April was 49.0%, down 1.5 percentage points from the previous month. The non - manufacturing PMI and comprehensive PMI were 50.4% and 50.2% respectively, remaining in the expansion range [3]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The implementation of Indonesia's PNBP policy will increase the supply cost of nickel resources, and the price of Indonesian nickel ore will remain firm [3]. - Domestic smelters maintain normal production with rising output, and the production capacity of Indonesian nickel iron is expected to be released faster with a significant rebound in output [3]. - Stainless - steel enterprises resume production after the holiday, but environmental protection maintenance affects output, which is unfavorable for nickel demand; the demand for new - energy vehicles continues to rise, but its small proportion has limited impact [3]. - Recently, the low nickel price has improved the downstream's willingness to purchase and stock up, resulting in a decline in domestic inventory, while overseas inventory continues to accumulate [3]. - It is recommended to wait and see or go long on dips with a light position [3]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai nickel is 125,770 yuan/ton, down 470 yuan; the 05 - 06 contract spread is - 140 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan [3]. - The price of LME 3 - month nickel is 15,575 US dollars/ton, down 215 US dollars; the position of the main contract of Shanghai nickel is 66,699 lots, up 34,148 lots [3]. - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai nickel is 1,704 lots, down 2,043 lots; LME nickel inventory is 203,850 tons, down 402 tons [3]. - The inventory of nickel in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 30,332 tons, down 262 tons; the total canceled warrants of LME nickel is 23,934 tons, up 4,188 tons [3]. - The warrant quantity of Shanghai nickel is 2,4842 tons, down 494 tons [3]. 2. Spot Market - The spot price of SMM 1 nickel is 126,950 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan; the average spot price of 1 nickel plate in Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals is 126,950 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [3]. - The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 100 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the bonded warehouse (warehouse receipt) price is 100 US dollars/ton, unchanged [3]. - The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 28,900 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the NI main contract is 1,180 yuan/ton, up 495 yuan [3]. - The LME nickel (spot/three - month) premium is - 207.32 US dollars/ton, up 0.22 US dollars [3]. 3. Upstream Situation - The import volume of nickel ore is 1.5352 million tons, up 389,100 tons; the total port inventory of nickel ore is 6.6389 million tons, down 32,500 tons [3]. - The average import unit price of nickel ore is 129.29 US dollars/ton, down 128.76 US dollars; the tax - included price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 41.71 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged [3]. 4. Industry Situation - The monthly output of electrolytic nickel is 29,430 tons, up 1,120 tons; the total monthly output of nickel iron is 22,800 metal tons, down 500 metal tons [3]. - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 8,559.43 tons, up 661.27 tons; the monthly import volume of nickel iron is 1.0133 million tons, up 104,600 tons [3]. 5. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.9018 million tons, up 247,500 tons; the total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 661,000 tons, down 10,000 tons [3]. 6. Industry News - The preliminary value of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in April is 50.7 (expected 49.1, final value in March 50.2); the preliminary value of the service PMI is 51.4 (expected 52.8, final value in March 54.4); the preliminary value of the composite PMI is 51.2 (expected 52.2, final value in March 53.5) [3]. - The preliminary value of the Eurozone Manufacturing PMI in April is 48.7 (expected 47.5, final value in March 48.6); the preliminary value of the service PMI is 49.7 (expected 50.5, final value in March 51.0); the preliminary value of the composite PMI is 50.1 (expected 50.3, final value in March 50.9) [3]. - The International Monetary Fund predicts that the increase in tariffs in 2025 will cause the global public debt - to - GDP ratio to rise by 2.8 percentage points to 95.1% of GDP; if the decline in revenue and output due to tariffs exceeds the current forecast, the global debt level may exceed 117% of GDP by 2027 [3]. - There is hope for the easing of Sino - US trade tensions, and Trump's abandonment of the threat to fire the Fed chairman has improved market sentiment; domestic cities have successively introduced a package of policies to expand domestic demand, and Guangdong, Shanghai and other places are planning to introduce the "Special Action Plan to Boost Consumption" [3].