捷克央行降息25个基点。 ...

Group 1: Dollar Performance - The dollar experienced a general decline due to market concerns over the uncertainty surrounding trade agreements promoted by President Trump [1][3][9] - The dollar fell 0.86% against the yen, closing at 142.445 yen [1] - The widening U.S. trade deficit, reported to have increased by 14% to a record $140.5 billion, further exacerbated market worries [6][9] Group 2: Euro Strength - The euro strengthened following the election of conservative leader Merz as Chancellor in Germany, with a closing increase of 0.50% to $1.1371 [4][9] - Merz's election is viewed as a positive signal for political stability in Germany, boosting market confidence in the euro [4] Group 3: Canadian Dollar Performance - The Canadian dollar appreciated by 0.39% against the U.S. dollar, closing at 1.38 CAD, following Prime Minister Carney's firm stance on trade negotiations [5][9] - Carney's comments reflect Canada's strong position on trade issues, enhancing market confidence in the Canadian dollar [5] Group 4: Market Expectations - The market is closely watching the Federal Reserve's policy decision, with expectations that interest rates will remain unchanged [8] - There is speculation that the Bank of England may lower rates by 25 basis points, contributing to a 0.61% increase in the British pound to $1.33780 [8]

在十大交易货币所属央行中，仅有两家(欧洲央行和新西兰联储)在4月议息会议上实施降息，合计降幅 50个基点。 澳大利亚、日本和加拿大央行维持基准利率不变，而瑞典、瑞士、挪威、英国和美国央行4月未举行议 息会议。相比之下，今年2月十国集团央行中曾有半数实施降息。 目前市场焦点转向将于当地时间周三结束议息会议的美联储。 "正如一季度GDP数据所示，美联储本周会议正面临经济疲软与通胀粘性的政策两难，"贝莱德投资研究 所所长Jean Boivin表示。 智通财经APP获悉，随着贸易紧张局势升级导致经济增长与通胀前景不确定性加剧，4月全球主要央行 的降息热潮明显降温。 新兴市场也呈现相似态势，跟踪的18家发展中经济体央行数据显示，宽松力度普遍减弱。13家召开议息 会议的央行中仅有4家实施降息——印度、泰国、菲律宾和哥伦比亚均小幅下调关键利率25个基点，其 余8个国家按兵不动。 TS Lombard分析师Jon Harrison表示："美元波动、美联储政策不确定性以及关税外交可能引发资本外流 的担忧，促使部分新兴市场央行近期决策趋于谨慎。"他指出，尽管面临低通胀和增长前景恶化，但韩 国和印尼仍选择维持利率不变。 值得注意的 ...

原油负担已处于历史低位 油价自2025年初已下跌12美元/桶，根据摩根士丹利大宗商品策略师Martijn Rats的分析，此次油价下跌由需求和供应因素各占一半。需求方面的预测不断下 调，而供应方面则受到OPEC计划增产的影响。 油价的持续下跌或给亚洲经济体带来意外收益？ 据追风交易台消息，摩根士丹利在5月6日的报告中表示，国际油价自2025年初已下跌12美元/桶，若持续，将使亚洲地区原油负担从目前的3.1%降至2.3%。 但分析师警告，贸易紧张局势仍将对经济增长构成主要拖累。油价走弱与亚洲货币走强双重因素或导致亚洲央行加大降息力度，对投资者而言，泰国、韩 国、印度和日本将从油价下跌中获得更多相对收益。 亚洲是全球最依赖石油进口的地区，截至2025年3月的12个月内，亚洲的石油和天然气贸易逆差为GDP的2.4%，相比之下，欧元区为1.8%，而美国则略有盈 余。尽管油品占亚洲能源需求的25%，但它占能源贸易逆差的80%。 当前亚洲的原油负担（石油消费占GDP比重）自2023年以来已低于疫情前的长期平均水平3.6%。若油价在未来12个月维持在布伦特期货价格预测的平均61 美元/桶，亚洲的油负担将从2024年的3.1 ...

Group 1 - The central bank's interest rate cut leads to lower loan and deposit rates, making borrowing cheaper but reducing interest income for savers [3][4] - Lower deposit rates may drive individuals to invest in gold as a means of preserving value, as the opportunity cost of holding gold decreases [5][6] - A potential depreciation of the RMB due to interest rate cuts could make gold more expensive in local currency terms, further driving up demand and prices [10] Group 2 - The increase in liquidity from lower interest rates may lead to higher demand for gold as a safe-haven asset during economic uncertainty [5][10] - External factors such as international tensions and conflicts can also contribute to rising gold prices, as gold is viewed as a hedge against instability [2][10] - While gold may serve as a protective investment, it is important for individuals to diversify their investments and not overly concentrate in gold [7][10] Group 3 - The current market conditions suggest that individuals holding gold may see appreciation in value, while those considering gold purchases should be aware of potential price increases due to currency depreciation [10][11] - The historical context indicates that during economic downturns, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, gold prices tend to rise significantly as investors seek safety [10] - The importance of considering the broader economic landscape, including the strength of the US dollar and geopolitical events, is crucial for understanding gold price movements [2][10]

金十数据5月6日讯，Monex Europe的分析师在一份报告中说，在美联储周三的政策决定和加拿大周五的 就业数据公布后，加元面临下跌的风险。美联储可能会打压市场对其降息的押注，因通胀居高不下且就 业市场依然稳固。他们说，加拿大就业数据疲弱也有可能进一步加速对加元的抛售。与上周美国就业数 据形成对比的是，加拿大经济数据可能显示出一些与关税相关的疲软，这可能强化对加拿大央行6月降 息的预期。 Monex：加元短期内存在下行风险 ...

Core Viewpoint - Ebury economists suggest that if the Bank of England indicates that market expectations for interest rate cuts are excessive, the British pound may strengthen [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - Market Expectations: LSEG data shows that the market anticipates the Bank of England will cut interest rates by 90 basis points for the remainder of 2025 [1] - Central Bank Position: The Bank of England may find it challenging to meet these expectations and may prefer to maintain a selective approach [1] - Political and Economic Context: The British pound is expected to benefit from a Labour government and closer UK-EU relations [1]

欧洲央行管委斯图纳拉斯：看来欧洲央行将继续降息 智通财经5月5日电，欧洲央行管委斯图纳拉斯表示，看来欧洲央行将继续降息。 ...

受超预期非农数据的影响，三大期指集体走高。截至发稿，道琼斯指数期货涨1.09%，标普500指数期 货涨1.17%，纳斯达克100指数期货涨0.97%。 现货黄金短线走低约8美元，现报3251.97美元/盎司。 美国总统特朗普再次在社交媒体上表示，美国没有通货膨胀，美联储应该降低利率。他还表示，"汽油 刚刚跌破每加仑1.98美元，为多年来的最低水平，杂货价格下降，能源价格下降"。 周五(5月2日)美股盘前，美国系列重磅经济数据刚刚出炉。劳工统计局报告称，美国4月非农就业人数 增加17.7万，大幅超出预估的13.8万增量，前值为增加22.8万；美国4月失业率报4.2%，市场预估为 4.2%，前值为4.2%。 美国非农就业数据公布后，美国国债收益率上涨，而美元也收复失地。 此外，交易员仍预计美联储今年将降息近四次。美联储官员此前表示，在进一步明确政府的政策将对经 济产生的影响之前，他们并不急于降息，并且根据普遍预计，美联储将在5月的下一次会议上将保持基 准利率不变。 同一日，欧盟统计局初步估计，欧元区今年4月消费者价格指数(CPI)同比上涨2.2%，与前值相平，略超 出经济学家预期的2.1%；然而不包括食品、酒精、 ...

欧元区通胀保持不变后，欧洲央行可进一步降息 金十数据5月2日讯，德国复兴信贷银行经济学家舍恩瓦尔德在一份报告中说，在数据显示欧元区4月份 通胀率保持在2.2%之后，欧洲央行应该可以自由地再次降息。她说，欧元走强使进口商品更便宜，再 加上贸易冲突对经济的抑制，应该足以在中期将消费者通胀率稳定在2%的目标附近。这为欧洲央行在6 月份再次降息留下了余地。然而，欧元区服务业的价格压力仍然居高不下，推高了核心通胀率。 ...