全球银行股面临多重利好因素驱动！瑞银在最新研报中指出了全球银行股上涨的"核心逻辑"，宏观层面利好因素包括民粹主义、财政宽松、本币升值，以 及结构性改善和估值具有吸引力等。 7月24日，据追风交易台消息，瑞银全球股票策略团队在最新研报中重申对银行股的长期超配立场，并提出了银行股上涨的核心逻辑： 民粹主义引发财政宽松担忧，推高债券收益率，而银行股是债券收益率上升的最大受益者之一；银行股作为高度本土化行业，从欧洲、日本等 地货币升值中受益显著。 瑞银还在报告中指出，从结构性改善与估值优势方面来看， 银行板块经历了后金融危机时代的去杠杆和严监管，如今风险抵御能力显著增强，诉讼、金 融科技冲击等逆风因素减弱。 最后，瑞银补充道，多项指标支持银行股配置，包括拥挤度适中，盈利修正强劲，以及宏观模型显示上涨空间。该行建议关注欧洲、日本及部分新兴市场 的银行股。 宏观层面：民粹主义、高利率与本币升值的"完美风暴"，私人部门放贷增长回暖 1、报告称，2024年是120年来首次所有主要发达市场的执政党都失去了政权或多数席位。这种政治变化的反应通常是增加支出、收紧移民政策，并在某些 情况下提高最低工资。 瑞银指出，当前全球最大的宏观 ...

Core Viewpoint - The "Big and Beautiful" bill has made significant progress with its passage in the procedural vote in the House of Representatives, indicating a shift in support among previously opposing Republican members towards President Trump's agenda [1][4]. Legislative Progress - A group of Republican opponents in the House has changed their stance to support Trump, allowing his agenda to move forward after initially threatening to block the bill [4]. - The House cleared a key procedural hurdle and voted to pass the bill, with Republican leaders working to win over dissenting votes by delaying the vote on the bill's debate rules [6]. - Republican leaders are optimistic about securing enough votes for the bill's passage in the full voting stage, although the outcome remains uncertain [7]. Financial Implications - The bill is expected to implement most of Trump's policy agenda, which could have profound effects on the U.S. capital markets and global investors if successfully enacted [13]. - Estimates suggest that the Senate version of the bill could increase the U.S. fiscal deficit by $3.9 trillion over the next decade, compared to $3 trillion for the House version, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability [14]. - If the "Big and Beautiful" bill is passed, it may support U.S. economic growth but could also heighten doubts about fiscal sustainability and balance of payments, impacting the risk premium and valuation of U.S. debt in the long term [14]. Market Reactions - Following the news of the bill's passage in the procedural vote, the U.S. dollar index experienced a significant drop, indicating market anticipation of the bill's final approval [11].

Group 1: Market Overview - The stock market has seen a significant upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through resistance levels and reaching a year-to-date high, supported by increased trading volume of 1.6 trillion yuan, up by 188.2 billion yuan from the previous trading day [4][20]. - The bond market is expected to experience high-level fluctuations, influenced by the performance of the stock market, which may continue to suppress bond market performance if it remains strong [4][16]. - The US stock market is anticipated to challenge new highs as speculative sentiment returns, with reduced risks from rising oil prices and US Treasury yields [5][27]. Group 2: Sector Performance - In the A-share market, sectors such as military, securities, internet finance, and insurance have shown strong performance, while oil and gas, pesticides, and film sectors have lagged [20][21]. - The commodity market has seen a decline in the Wenhua Commodity Index by 0.5%, with energy sectors leading the downturn, while non-ferrous and ferrous metals recorded gains [6][35]. Group 3: Policy and Economic Developments - Domestic policies emphasize expanding domestic demand and boosting consumption to promote high-quality economic development, as highlighted by the Vice Premier's recent remarks [7][41]. - Internationally, the EU is preparing to implement additional tariff countermeasures against the US, indicating ongoing trade tensions [7][42].

Core Viewpoint - The German stock market has shown remarkable performance this year, with the Huaan Fund's German ETF (513030.SH) achieving a return of 31.7%, outperforming most domestic assets [2][3]. Group 1: ETF Performance - The German ETF has experienced a bull market for three consecutive years, with a total return of 76.5%, although it still lags behind its benchmark by 17 percentage points while significantly outperforming the CSI 300 Index [3][4]. Group 2: ETF Composition - The ETF tracks the DAX Index, which includes 40 major companies listed on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange, representing over 70% of the German stock market's market capitalization [7]. - Major holdings in the ETF include: - SAP (13.67%): Europe's largest tech company, leading in ERP software with a market cap exceeding $300 billion, focusing on AI and cloud services [8]. - Siemens (9.17%): An industrial giant with a strong presence in infrastructure and medical devices [8]. - Allianz (7.29%): The world's largest insurance group, operating in 70 countries with a market cap over $90 billion [9]. - Deutsche Telekom (6.70%): The largest telecom operator in Europe with extensive international operations [10]. - Approximately 80% of the revenue from these companies comes from international markets, with only 20% from the German domestic market, indicating a decoupling of the DAX Index performance from the local economy [11]. Group 3: Economic Factors - The German government introduced a €460 billion tax reduction plan in 2025, significantly lowering industrial users' electricity costs by 50%, which has reduced manufacturing operational costs [16]. - The European Central Bank has implemented eight consecutive interest rate cuts, maintaining a historical low yield of 2.93% on ten-year German bonds, creating a favorable financing environment for companies [18]. Group 4: Currency and Cost Advantages - The depreciation of the euro against the dollar from 1.11 in 2024 to 1.04 in mid-2025 has enhanced the price competitiveness of German exports, with machinery exports to the U.S. increasing by 9% [20]. - The reduction in industrial electricity costs has further decreased manufacturing expenses, leading to a 19% increase in net profit for BMW despite only a 4% increase in global sales [20]. Group 5: Investment Options - Domestic investors can access the German stock market through two ETFs: Huaan Fund's German ETF (513030.SH) and Jiashi Fund's German ETF (159561.SZ), with management scales of 1.35 billion and 1.64 billion respectively [21]. - Huaan's ETF has a premium of 2.12%, while Jiashi's ETF is at a discount of 0.25%, making the latter potentially safer [21]. - In terms of liquidity, Huaan's ETF has a significantly higher turnover rate of 8.8 times compared to Jiashi's 2.6 times in May [22].

Group 1: Policy Outlook - The report indicates that the U.S. tariff fluctuations are expected to decrease, with a focus on domestic policies as the Trump administration faces feedback constraints from judicial bodies and the market [2][12]. - The total level of tariffs imposed by the U.S. on global imports is projected to stabilize around 15%, with strategic goods like steel, aluminum, and pharmaceuticals likely to retain high tariffs [2][12]. - The "Beautiful Bill" passed by the House is expected to increase the fiscal deficit by $3.1 trillion over ten years, with the deficit rate potentially rising to 7% by 2026 [3][13][25]. Group 2: Economic Growth Forecast - Following a negative growth in Q1, the U.S. economic growth momentum is anticipated to recover marginally from May onwards, with annual growth expected to reach 1.6% in 2025 [3][27]. - The report predicts that consumer confidence and corporate investment willingness will improve due to fiscal expansion and reduced tariff impacts, contributing to a more stable labor market with an unemployment rate around 4.5% [3][27][30]. - The report highlights that while the labor market remains resilient, new non-farm employment is expected to slow down in the second half of 2025 due to uncertainties surrounding tariffs and immigration policies [30]. Group 3: Inflation and Monetary Policy - Core inflation in the U.S. is expected to remain sticky, with projections indicating it will stay above 3% annually through 2026, influenced by fiscal expansion and tariff policies [3][4][28]. - The Federal Reserve is anticipated to implement preventive rate cuts in late 2025, although high long-term interest rates may limit the effectiveness of these cuts [4][10]. - The report suggests that the high yield on U.S. Treasury bonds could become a significant constraint on fiscal and tariff policies, as well as market performance [4][10][40]. Group 4: Asset Valuation and Market Dynamics - The valuation premium of the U.S. dollar and dollar-denominated assets is expected to continue shrinking, with rising risk premiums and challenges in bond yields [4][10]. - The report forecasts that the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield will remain in the range of 4.5% to 5% in the second half of 2025, which could negatively impact stock valuations [4][10][41]. - The report notes that the rapid increase in Treasury yields could drag down stock valuations, indicating a potential volatility source for risk assets [4][10][41].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View Global central banks' expected interest rate cuts and fiscal easing, along with continuous gold purchases by central banks and ongoing geopolitical conflicts, may lead to a situation where precious metal prices are more likely to rise than fall. It is recommended that investors focus on buying on dips. Specific support and resistance levels are provided for London gold, Shanghai gold, London silver, and Shanghai silver [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Economic Data**: In the US, March JOLTS job openings hit a six - month low, far worse than expected; the April Conference Board consumer confidence index dropped to 86, the lowest since May 2020; the March goods trade deficit set a record high, far exceeding expectations [1]. - **US Treasury Bonds**: The narrative of "mid - year concentrated maturity of US Treasury bonds" is exaggerated. There is some concentrated maturity pressure in the short - term debt, but T - Bills demand remains stable. The maturity distribution of medium - and long - term Treasury bonds is relatively stable [1]. - **Central Bank Policies**: The European Central Bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points in April, and may cut rates 2 - 3 times before the end of 2025. The Bank of England may cut rates in May and 2 - 3 times before the end of 2025. The Bank of Japan may raise rates around July [1]. Silver - **US Fiscal Policies**: The US Congress passed a temporary spending bill until September 30, with a future ten - year tax cut of $5.3 trillion, a debt ceiling increase of $50 billion, and government spending cuts of $40 billion. The US Treasury's borrowing in the second quarter was $514 billion, exceeding expectations by three times, but the borrowing demand is lower than expected after excluding the debt - ceiling impact. The CBO predicts the Treasury funds may run out between August and October, which may slow down the Fed's balance - sheet reduction. The expected Fed rate cuts are added to June/July/September/December [1]. Market Data - **Gold**: On April 29, 2025, the Shanghai gold spot closing price was 781.57 yuan/gram, up 3.35 yuan from the previous day and down 4.56 yuan from the previous week. The trading volume of Shanghai gold T + D decreased by 9,640 compared to the previous day and 53,070 compared to the previous week. The COMEX gold futures active - contract closing price was $3327.60, down $107.50 from April 21. The trading volume decreased by 48,229 compared to the previous day and 68,160 compared to the previous week [1]. - **Silver**: On April 29, 2025, the Shanghai silver spot closing price was 8197 yuan/ten - gram, up 24 yuan from the previous day and 6 yuan from the previous week. The trading volume of Shanghai silver T + D decreased by 122,578 compared to the previous day and 312,926 compared to the previous week. The COMEX silver futures active - contract closing price was $33.22, up $0.14 from the previous day and $0.58 from the previous week [1]. - **Other Commodities and Financial Indicators**: INE crude oil was 483.60 yuan/barrel, ICE Brent crude oil was $63.01/barrel, NYMEX crude oil was $60.14/barrel. The Shanghai copper futures price was 77,600 yuan/ton, and the LME copper spot price was $9,378/ton. The Shanghai Bank - to - Bank overnight lending rate SHIBOR was 1.54%, and the US 10 - year Treasury bond nominal yield was 4.19% [1]. - **Stock Indexes**: The Shanghai Composite Index was 3,286.6548, the S&P 500 was 5,560.8300, the UK FTSE 100 was 8,463.4600, the French CAC40 was 7,555.8700, the German DAX was 21,205.8600, the Nikkei 225 was 35,839.9900, and the South Korean Composite Index was 2,565.4200 [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core View of the Report - Global central banks' expectations of interest rate cuts and fiscal easing, a slight easing of the US ORt financial stress index, continuous gold purchases by central banks, and geopolitical risks may make precious metal prices more likely to rise than fall. It is recommended that investors mainly set up long positions when prices decline [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metal Market Data - **Gold**: Shanghai gold futures' closing price was 805.06 yuan/g on April 18, with a volume of 385,994. The spot Shanghai gold T+D's closing price was 803.87 yuan/g, with a volume of 25,222. COMEX gold futures' closing price was 3,341.30 dollars/ounce, and the London gold spot price was 1,62.50 dollars/ounce. SPDR gold ETF holdings were 952.29 tons, and iShare gold ETF holdings were 433.33 tons [1]. - **Silver**: Shanghai silver futures' closing price was 8,247.00 yuan/ten grams on April 18, with a volume of 540,406. The spot Shanghai silver T+D's closing price was 8,227.00 yuan/ten grams, with a volume of 497,806. COMEX silver futures' closing price was 32.55 dollars/ounce, and the London silver spot price was 32.31 dollars/ounce. The US iShare silver ETF holdings were 14,120.10 tons, and the Canadian PSLV silver ETF holdings were 5,767.09 tons [1]. - **Price Ratios**: The ratio of Shanghai gold to Shanghai silver was 97.62, the ratio of New York gold futures to New York silver futures was 2.59, and the ratio of London gold spot to London silver spot was 102.31 [1]. Important Information - **Tariff Negotiations**: Japan will not blindly yield in US tariff negotiations. Trump said the tariff negotiation progress was good, but the Mexican president said there was no consensus [1]. - **Interest Rate Statements**: Trump criticized Powell and demanded an immediate interest rate cut. Republican lawmakers supported Powell, stating that no president has the right to dismiss the US central bank governor [1]. - **US Fiscal Policy**: The US Congress passed a temporary spending bill until September 30, including a 5.3 - trillion - dollar tax cut and a 5 - trillion - dollar increase in the debt ceiling over the next decade, in exchange for a 4 - billion - dollar reduction in government spending. The CBO predicts that the Treasury's funds may be exhausted between August and September, which may slow down the Fed's balance - sheet reduction [1]. - **Global Central Bank Policies**: The European Central Bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points in March, and there are expectations of 2 - 3 more rate cuts by the end of 2025. The Bank of England may cut interest rates in May and 2 - 3 more times by the end of 2025. The Bank of Japan may raise interest rates around July [1]. Trading Strategy - Investors are advised to mainly set up long positions when precious metal prices decline. For London gold, pay attention to the support level around 3,050 - 3,150 dollars/ounce and the resistance level around 3,500 - 3,700 dollars/ounce. For Shanghai gold, focus on the support level around 720 - 740 yuan/g and the resistance level around 820 - 870 yuan/g. For London silver, pay attention to the support level around 28 - 30 dollars/ounce and the resistance level around 35 - 36 dollars/ounce. For Shanghai silver, focus on the support level around 7,400 - 7,800 yuan/ten grams and the resistance level around 8,600 - 8,900 yuan/ten grams [1].

Core Viewpoint - The report from Huatai Securities indicates that fiscal easing has intensified in March, with significant support for economic growth from expanded fiscal policies [1] Fiscal Policy Analysis - In the first quarter, the broad fiscal expenditure (general public budget + government funds) increased by 5.6% year-on-year, surpassing the nominal GDP growth rate of 4.6% [1] - The growth rate of broad fiscal expenditure in March rebounded sharply to 10.1% from 2.9% in January-February, indicating strong spending momentum [1] - Notable increases in spending were observed in infrastructure-related areas such as agriculture, forestry, water affairs, and energy conservation and environmental protection, aligning with the high growth in infrastructure investment in March [1] Fiscal Deficit and Future Outlook - The broad fiscal deficit in March reached 1.7 trillion yuan, an increase of 366.1 billion yuan compared to the same period last year, reflecting an intensified fiscal policy expansion [1] - Looking ahead, the implementation of tariff policies in April may disrupt exports, highlighting the necessity for further fiscal easing in the second quarter [1] - The stability of fiscal revenue growth is crucial for the sustainability of fiscal expansion [1]