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中金 • 全球研究 | 2025年日本自民党总裁选举#6:高市政权下的日本资本市场展望
中金点睛· 2025-10-08 23:59
结论: 我们认为高市早苗为"安倍经济学"的坚定继承者,在经济金融领域的政策中带有"希望货币宽松、日元贬值、财政扩张"的偏好。 高市 的当选,各类日本资产的价格波动方向或与"安倍经济学交易"基本一致,或会发生日元贬值、日股上升、日债收益率曲线走陡峭,同时由于高 市的当选具有意外性,短期内上述交易或表现明显。 人物介绍: 我们在《 25年日本自民党总裁选举#4:候选人高市早苗 》中详细介绍了高市早苗的出身、人物背景、从政经历、持有资产、当选 前的经济金融领域的政策主张等。 选举结果: 10月4日,自民党进行了总裁选举的投票与开票,当天北京时间12:53左右公布了第一轮投票的结果[1](图表1),高市早苗、小泉 进次郎、林芳正得票数位列前三,但由于在首轮投票中未能有单个候选人得票数过半(详情参考《 25年日本自民党总裁选举#2:选举流程与日 本资产季节性 》),因此投票数最高的两位候选人高市与小泉进入第二轮投票(决胜局投票)。10月4日北京时间13:55左右公布了第二轮投票的 结果[2](图表2),与此前各类舆论调查的结果相悖,高市早苗在国会议员票与都道府县党支部的票数中双双领先,成为了自民党的新任总裁。 10月1 ...
香港市场“涨了又跌“,传递什么信号?
Hu Xiu· 2025-10-08 11:05
首先观察假期里最闪亮的资产——黄金。黄金周期间,金价突破每盎司4000美元。支撑力何在?我们此 前提过,黄金的大逻辑源于全球主要国家债务大宽松,这一长期趋势在2025年仍未结束:宽松不止,黄 金涨势不停。 本篇评级为★★★,主要围绕以下内容展开: 新闻解读评级说明:五星重磅,四星重要,三星级以下大家选择听。 1、黄金行情走完了吗?从全球债务逻辑聊一聊 1、黄金行情走完了吗?从全球债务逻辑聊一聊 2、节后,哪些赛道更接近暖风? 如有疑问请以音频内容为准,添加小虎哥微信miaotou515,入群有机会与董小姐进一步交流。 经历了一个长长的假期,内地市场虽然还未开盘,但从香港市场的波动仍能感受到这个假期并不平静。 香港市场经历了"过山车"行情:首日单日涨幅超过3%,随后几天却悉数回吐,回到原点。背后推动力 是什么?发生了什么?我们一起盘点:对于中国资产而言,假期里接收到的信息,究竟提供了向上支撑 还是向下压力? 假期内恰好又发生一件强化这一逻辑的事件——日本新首相上台。高市早苗成为日本首位女首相,其政 策主张鲜明,可称作"日本版特朗普"或"女版特朗普"。特朗普竞选时喊"让美国再次伟大",高市早苗则 提出"让日本回归 ...
就在今天!美国投票结果出炉,9月20日,特朗普收到噩耗,他要支付351亿巨款
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-20 16:33
Group 1 - The Republican Party is showing signs of internal anxiety as they modify rules to confirm 48 positions, including key departments like Defense and Energy, indicating a lack of unified support for President Trump's agenda [1] - Trump's influence over the Federal Reserve is limited, as evidenced by the recent 25 basis point rate cut, which did not meet his expectations of at least 50 basis points [1] - The struggle for control over the federal government is evident, with Trump's ability to influence the Federal Reserve being significantly constrained [1] Group 2 - The $35.1 billion agricultural subsidy, which helped Trump gain support from agricultural states during the last election, is now under threat due to rising national debt and budget deficits [3] - The Democratic-controlled House is particularly cautious about agricultural subsidies, which are seen as driven by electoral considerations, complicating Trump's ability to fulfill his promises [3] - Farmers' support for Trump is wavering, and failure to deliver on subsidies could lead to a loss of backing from this crucial voter base [3] Group 3 - Trump's strategy to encourage the EU to purchase more U.S. soybeans is facing resistance, as European officials are wary of being drawn into a trade conflict with China [4] - The EU's economic ties with China complicate Trump's push for increased purchases, as any tariffs on Chinese goods could disrupt their supply chains [4] - The "America First" policy is leading to international isolation, reducing the effectiveness of domestic economic strategies [4] Group 4 - The combination of a narrow victory in Senate confirmations, the pressure of agricultural subsidies, fiscal constraints, and international isolation presents a significant challenge for Trump's administration [7] - The current situation reflects structural pressures rather than short-term political struggles, indicating a critical test for Trump's governance [7]
海外高频 | 市场消化年内三次降息预期,贵金属价格持续上涨(申万宏观·赵伟团队)
申万宏源宏观· 2025-09-16 16:03
Group 1 - The article highlights that global stock indices mostly rose, with significant increases in the Nikkei 225 (up 4.1%) and the Hang Seng Index (up 3.8%) [2][3] - Precious metals prices have continued to rise for three consecutive weeks, with COMEX gold increasing by 1.3% to $3646.3 per ounce [2][56] - The U.S. market has fully priced in expectations for three interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve within the year, following the August CPI data release [2][87] Group 2 - Japan's Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba announced his resignation, which has heightened expectations for more expansive fiscal policies in Japan [2][68] - The resignation is attributed to the ruling party's historic losses in elections, leading to a potential increase in long-term interest rates if a more expansionary fiscal policy is adopted [2][68] - The 30-year Japanese government bond yield rose to 3.3% following the announcement, indicating market reactions to potential fiscal changes [2][68] Group 3 - The article notes that the U.S. average tariff rate stands at 9.75%, with a notably high rate of 40.36% on imports from China, contributing approximately $10.1 billion in tariff revenue [2][72] - The U.S. Supreme Court is set to review tariff policies, which could impact future tariff structures [2][72] Group 4 - The U.S. Treasury auction results indicate strong demand for government bonds, particularly in the mid-term category, with bid-to-cover ratios exceeding 3 for certain maturities [2][74] - The auction results reflect robust interest from global institutions in locking in U.S. Treasury yields [2][74] Group 5 - As of September 9, the cumulative fiscal deficit for the U.S. in 2025 reached $1.32 trillion, slightly up from $1.31 trillion in the previous year [2][75] - Total expenditures for the year amounted to $5.67 trillion, compared to $5.30 trillion in the same period last year [2][75]
全球长债抛售潮蔓延,日本30年期国债收益率创历史新高
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-09-03 05:56
Core Viewpoint - The Japanese bond market is facing dual pressures from both internal political uncertainty and external global bond market turmoil, leading to significant increases in bond yields [1][4][10]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The yield on Japan's 30-year government bonds reached a record high of 3.28%, while the 20-year bond yield hit 2.69%, the highest since 1999 [1]. - Global concerns over government debt levels are driving up long-term yields, with the UK and France also experiencing significant increases in their bond yields [4]. - The US 30-year bond yield is approaching 5%, reflecting a pessimistic sentiment among investors regarding long-term debt [4]. Group 2: Domestic Political Factors - Internal political uncertainty in Japan, particularly regarding Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's potential ousting due to election losses, is exacerbating market fears [7][10]. - The ruling Liberal Democratic Party's internal strife has led to resignations among senior members, increasing the likelihood of leadership changes [10][11]. - Analysts suggest that any new leadership may pursue more populist policies, including increased government spending, which could further unsettle investors [11]. Group 3: Investor Sentiment and Upcoming Auctions - The upcoming auction of Japan's 30-year bonds is seen as a critical test of investor confidence, with global markets closely monitoring the results [10][12]. - Recent demand for Japanese long-term bonds has been weak, with institutional investors favoring shorter-term sovereign debt since May [12]. - Analysts express caution regarding the auction, predicting it will be challenging due to rising yields and investor reluctance to engage with long-duration bonds [13].
全球银行股的“上涨逻辑”:民粹主义、财政宽松、本币升值
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-07-24 07:05
Core Viewpoint - UBS highlights multiple favorable factors driving global bank stocks, including populism, fiscal easing, currency appreciation, structural improvements, and attractive valuations [1][2]. Macro Factors - The rise of populism is leading to concerns over fiscal easing, which is pushing up bond yields, benefiting bank stocks as they are highly localized and gain from currency appreciation in regions like Europe and Japan [1][3]. - UBS maintains a bearish outlook on the US dollar, predicting a 1% rate cut by the end of the year, which will strengthen the euro and yen, directly enhancing the asset value and profitability of local banks [7][11]. Structural Improvements and Valuation - The banking sector has significantly improved its risk resilience post-financial crisis, with reduced litigation risks and manageable fintech disruption [2][26]. - Current bank stock valuations are attractive, reflecting excessive market concerns about an economic slowdown, with forward P/E ratios in Europe and the US showing about a 10% discount to historical norms [16][20]. Credit Growth and Economic Recovery - A turning point in private sector credit growth is evident, particularly in Europe, where demand for corporate loans is increasing, signaling a new upward cycle for banks' core lending business [11][15]. Indicators Supporting Bank Stock Allocation - UBS identifies several indicators supporting bank stock allocation, including moderate crowding and strong earnings revisions, with bank stocks ranking favorably in terms of earnings adjustments [36][41]. - The macro model indicates potential upside for bank stocks, particularly in Europe and Japan, where interest rates are nearing the end of a tightening cycle and will benefit from currency appreciation [41].
重大进展!特朗普,传来大消息!
券商中国· 2025-07-03 09:12
Core Viewpoint - The "Big and Beautiful" bill has made significant progress with its passage in the procedural vote in the House of Representatives, indicating a shift in support among previously opposing Republican members towards President Trump's agenda [1][4]. Legislative Progress - A group of Republican opponents in the House has changed their stance to support Trump, allowing his agenda to move forward after initially threatening to block the bill [4]. - The House cleared a key procedural hurdle and voted to pass the bill, with Republican leaders working to win over dissenting votes by delaying the vote on the bill's debate rules [6]. - Republican leaders are optimistic about securing enough votes for the bill's passage in the full voting stage, although the outcome remains uncertain [7]. Financial Implications - The bill is expected to implement most of Trump's policy agenda, which could have profound effects on the U.S. capital markets and global investors if successfully enacted [13]. - Estimates suggest that the Senate version of the bill could increase the U.S. fiscal deficit by $3.9 trillion over the next decade, compared to $3 trillion for the House version, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability [14]. - If the "Big and Beautiful" bill is passed, it may support U.S. economic growth but could also heighten doubts about fiscal sustainability and balance of payments, impacting the risk premium and valuation of U.S. debt in the long term [14]. Market Reactions - Following the news of the bill's passage in the procedural vote, the U.S. dollar index experienced a significant drop, indicating market anticipation of the bill's final approval [11].
策略日报:价波同涨,年内新高-20250625
Group 1: Market Overview - The stock market has seen a significant upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through resistance levels and reaching a year-to-date high, supported by increased trading volume of 1.6 trillion yuan, up by 188.2 billion yuan from the previous trading day [4][20]. - The bond market is expected to experience high-level fluctuations, influenced by the performance of the stock market, which may continue to suppress bond market performance if it remains strong [4][16]. - The US stock market is anticipated to challenge new highs as speculative sentiment returns, with reduced risks from rising oil prices and US Treasury yields [5][27]. Group 2: Sector Performance - In the A-share market, sectors such as military, securities, internet finance, and insurance have shown strong performance, while oil and gas, pesticides, and film sectors have lagged [20][21]. - The commodity market has seen a decline in the Wenhua Commodity Index by 0.5%, with energy sectors leading the downturn, while non-ferrous and ferrous metals recorded gains [6][35]. Group 3: Policy and Economic Developments - Domestic policies emphasize expanding domestic demand and boosting consumption to promote high-quality economic development, as highlighted by the Vice Premier's recent remarks [7][41]. - Internationally, the EU is preparing to implement additional tariff countermeasures against the US, indicating ongoing trade tensions [7][42].
德国ETF今年悄悄大涨3成,原因有哪些?
市值风云· 2025-06-06 10:03
Core Viewpoint - The German stock market has shown remarkable performance this year, with the Huaan Fund's German ETF (513030.SH) achieving a return of 31.7%, outperforming most domestic assets [2][3]. Group 1: ETF Performance - The German ETF has experienced a bull market for three consecutive years, with a total return of 76.5%, although it still lags behind its benchmark by 17 percentage points while significantly outperforming the CSI 300 Index [3][4]. Group 2: ETF Composition - The ETF tracks the DAX Index, which includes 40 major companies listed on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange, representing over 70% of the German stock market's market capitalization [7]. - Major holdings in the ETF include: - SAP (13.67%): Europe's largest tech company, leading in ERP software with a market cap exceeding $300 billion, focusing on AI and cloud services [8]. - Siemens (9.17%): An industrial giant with a strong presence in infrastructure and medical devices [8]. - Allianz (7.29%): The world's largest insurance group, operating in 70 countries with a market cap over $90 billion [9]. - Deutsche Telekom (6.70%): The largest telecom operator in Europe with extensive international operations [10]. - Approximately 80% of the revenue from these companies comes from international markets, with only 20% from the German domestic market, indicating a decoupling of the DAX Index performance from the local economy [11]. Group 3: Economic Factors - The German government introduced a €460 billion tax reduction plan in 2025, significantly lowering industrial users' electricity costs by 50%, which has reduced manufacturing operational costs [16]. - The European Central Bank has implemented eight consecutive interest rate cuts, maintaining a historical low yield of 2.93% on ten-year German bonds, creating a favorable financing environment for companies [18]. Group 4: Currency and Cost Advantages - The depreciation of the euro against the dollar from 1.11 in 2024 to 1.04 in mid-2025 has enhanced the price competitiveness of German exports, with machinery exports to the U.S. increasing by 9% [20]. - The reduction in industrial electricity costs has further decreased manufacturing expenses, leading to a 19% increase in net profit for BMW despite only a 4% increase in global sales [20]. Group 5: Investment Options - Domestic investors can access the German stock market through two ETFs: Huaan Fund's German ETF (513030.SH) and Jiashi Fund's German ETF (159561.SZ), with management scales of 1.35 billion and 1.64 billion respectively [21]. - Huaan's ETF has a premium of 2.12%, while Jiashi's ETF is at a discount of 0.25%, making the latter potentially safer [21]. - In terms of liquidity, Huaan's ETF has a significantly higher turnover rate of 8.8 times compared to Jiashi's 2.6 times in May [22].
不轻松的经济“软着陆”
HTSC· 2025-06-03 08:14
Group 1: Policy Outlook - The report indicates that the U.S. tariff fluctuations are expected to decrease, with a focus on domestic policies as the Trump administration faces feedback constraints from judicial bodies and the market [2][12]. - The total level of tariffs imposed by the U.S. on global imports is projected to stabilize around 15%, with strategic goods like steel, aluminum, and pharmaceuticals likely to retain high tariffs [2][12]. - The "Beautiful Bill" passed by the House is expected to increase the fiscal deficit by $3.1 trillion over ten years, with the deficit rate potentially rising to 7% by 2026 [3][13][25]. Group 2: Economic Growth Forecast - Following a negative growth in Q1, the U.S. economic growth momentum is anticipated to recover marginally from May onwards, with annual growth expected to reach 1.6% in 2025 [3][27]. - The report predicts that consumer confidence and corporate investment willingness will improve due to fiscal expansion and reduced tariff impacts, contributing to a more stable labor market with an unemployment rate around 4.5% [3][27][30]. - The report highlights that while the labor market remains resilient, new non-farm employment is expected to slow down in the second half of 2025 due to uncertainties surrounding tariffs and immigration policies [30]. Group 3: Inflation and Monetary Policy - Core inflation in the U.S. is expected to remain sticky, with projections indicating it will stay above 3% annually through 2026, influenced by fiscal expansion and tariff policies [3][4][28]. - The Federal Reserve is anticipated to implement preventive rate cuts in late 2025, although high long-term interest rates may limit the effectiveness of these cuts [4][10]. - The report suggests that the high yield on U.S. Treasury bonds could become a significant constraint on fiscal and tariff policies, as well as market performance [4][10][40]. Group 4: Asset Valuation and Market Dynamics - The valuation premium of the U.S. dollar and dollar-denominated assets is expected to continue shrinking, with rising risk premiums and challenges in bond yields [4][10]. - The report forecasts that the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield will remain in the range of 4.5% to 5% in the second half of 2025, which could negatively impact stock valuations [4][10][41]. - The report notes that the rapid increase in Treasury yields could drag down stock valuations, indicating a potential volatility source for risk assets [4][10][41].