01 月度评估及行情展望 04 供给和需求 02 市场回顾 05 月差及跨市场价差 03 库存及ETF持仓变动 01 维持观望，等待价格回调 企稳 铂族金属月报 2026/01/04 0755-23375141 zhongjunxuan@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03112694 交易咨询号：Z0022090 钟俊轩（宏观金融组） CONTENTS 目录 月度评估及行情展望 内盘铂钯价格走势 资料来源：文华财经、五矿期货研究中心 资料来源：文华财经、五矿期货研究中心 内盘铂族金属上市以来总体呈现冲高回落的走势，11月27日上市至12月31日收盘，铂主力合约价格上涨19.56%至527.25元/克，其 在盘中达到729.5元/克的区间高位。钯主力合约价格上涨12.79%至425.2元/克，其在盘中达到578.45元/克的区间高点。 图1：广期所铂金主力合约价格（元/克） 图2：广期所钯金主力合约价格（元/克） 月度评估及行情展望 | 铂族金属重点数据汇总 | | 单位 | 2025-12-31 | | 2025-12-23 | | 周度变化 | | 周度涨跌幅度 | | 月度涨跌幅度 | | 进一年历史分位 ...

Core Insights - The commodity market in 2025 is characterized as a "structural bull market," with significant annual gains in gold and silver, while oil prices face pressure due to supply-demand dynamics [1] - Goldman Sachs' 2026 Commodity Outlook indicates a trend towards "increasing differentiation" in the commodity market, with overall returns expected to moderate but significant disparities among different commodities [1][2] - Key factors influencing the market include the geopolitical tensions between the US and China, the competition in AI, and dual supply shocks in the energy market [1][2] Commodity Performance - Precious metals, particularly gold and silver, are expected to continue their strong performance into 2026, with gold prices projected to reach $4,900 per ounce and silver between $50-$60 per ounce [3][6] - Industrial metals like copper are forecasted to maintain a strong price trajectory, with potential average prices between $11,400 and $12,075 per ton, driven by demand from technology and energy transitions [6][8] - The oil market is anticipated to face downward pressure, with Goldman Sachs predicting Brent and WTI crude oil prices to average $56 and $52 respectively in 2026, reflecting a supply surplus [8] Economic and Policy Context - The shift from "monetary easing + fiscal tightening" to "fiscal expansion + accelerated de-globalization" has highlighted the value of physical assets, creating structural opportunities in commodities [2] - The expected continuation of a loose monetary policy by the Federal Reserve in 2026 is seen as a catalyst for increased investment in commodities, as it lowers the opportunity cost of holding these assets [2] Market Dynamics - The energy market is expected to experience significant changes due to supply shocks in both oil and LNG, impacting pricing and availability [1][8] - The agricultural market's performance in 2026 is uncertain, with potential impacts from climate anomalies and trade policy changes affecting supply and demand dynamics [8] Strategic Focus - The 2026 commodity market will require a nuanced approach, moving away from a one-size-fits-all investment strategy to focus on structural opportunities influenced by geopolitical and technological factors [10]

Group 1 - President Trump addressed the nation on December 17, highlighting achievements over the past 11 months and announcing measures to alleviate economic anxiety among the public [1][4] - Trump claimed to have reduced costs for various goods and services, including gasoline, eggs, airline tickets, and hotels, while also increasing wage growth and curbing immigration [1][4] - The announcement included the upcoming selection of a new Federal Reserve chair, with candidates likely being National Economic Council Director Hassett and former Fed Governor Warsh, both of whom have differing views on monetary policy [1][4] Group 2 - Trump revealed that the government sent checks of $1,776 to 1.45 million military personnel, a figure symbolizing the year of America's founding [6] - Recent polls indicate that public concern over economic issues is high, with only 33% of Americans approving of Trump's economic management and 39% approving of his overall job performance [6] - Treasury Secretary Mnuchin reiterated the vision of the "Trump Account" plan, aimed at increasing stock market participation among Americans, with a one-time deposit of $1,000 for newborns to invest in index funds [6]

全球财政同步扩张：美国"大而美"法案推高债务上限5万亿、赤字增3.4万亿；日本通过21.3万亿日元 （约1354亿美元）刺激；英国财政缓冲扩至220亿英镑，2025-2026财年净借款上调至1383亿英镑。财政 宽松或提振经济与消费通胀。 此外，日本央行或12月19日加息25基点，低利率优势弱化，养老金、保险等资金回流，或削弱美债需求 并缩减美股、数字货币等市场廉价资金，"套息交易"或阶段性逆转。 需注意，2026年1月彭博商品指数再平衡或调降金银权重，被动基金或技术性抛售，短期施压金银。 中长期看，美联储扩表降息、全球财政宽松、地缘风险及央行购金支撑金价；短期警惕套息逆转与指数 再平衡的利空扰动。 今日周四（12月18日）亚盘时段，沪金价格自12月10日起持续上行，累计涨幅逾2%。主要驱动力包括 市场对美联储的降息扩表预期、全球财政扩张趋势以及央行的实际购金行为。 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 【要闻速递】 美国11月非农就业虽高于预期但前值回落，失业率双升引劳动力市场趋弱担忧。美联储12月12日起每月 购债400亿美元充实银行准备金，后续或维持高规模后逐步降至200-250亿，应对资产负债表自然扩张及 ...

Market Dynamics - The correlation between price movements and economic data/news has weakened again, with rising yields being the market's default choice in both the US and Eurozone [2] - Eurozone economic data is generally lackluster, while US data shows mixed signals, with consumer confidence assessments exceeding expectations but inflation expectations declining [2] - The US yield curve has generally risen by 3.7-3.9 basis points, moving further away from recent support levels, with the 2-year yield at 3.56% [2] - The market is maintaining a neutral stance ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy decision, despite expectations for further easing [2] - Eurozone swap rates have also increased by over 3-4 basis points, with slight narrowing of the French-German bond yield spread [2] Federal Reserve Focus - Market attention remains on the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, with expectations for a cautious stance and a potential 25 basis point rate cut to mitigate labor market risks [3] - The Fed's decision-making is still characterized by significant internal disagreement, with no hard data to support a change in the current policy stance [3] - Future guidance on potential easing will depend on labor market and CPI data updates following the Fed's decision [3] Hungary Credit Rating - Fitch has maintained Hungary's BBB credit rating but revised the outlook from stable to negative due to deteriorating public finance conditions [4] - The agency forecasts the deficit to widen from 5% this year to 5.6% by 2026, exceeding previous expectations [4] - Debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to rise from 73.5% in 2024 to 74.6% by the end of 2027, with economic growth expected to stabilize around 2.3% next year [4] UK Employment Report - The S&P Global UK employment report indicates a continued decline in recruitment activity, with permanent job vacancies decreasing for the fifth consecutive month [5] - Temporary worker pay has slightly decreased, while permanent salary growth remains at historical lows due to increased labor supply and intense job competition [5] - The current environment is described as complex and variable, with pre-budget tension impacting temporary hiring [5]

Core Viewpoint - The speculation regarding the next chairperson of the Federal Reserve has intensified following President Trump's recent statements, with a potential announcement expected in early 2026 [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Chairperson Selection - Trump indicated he plans to announce the new Federal Reserve chairperson in early 2026, which contrasts with Treasury Secretary Mnuchin's earlier suggestion of a timeline around Christmas [1] - The current chair, Jerome Powell, is set to see his term expire in May next year, and there is speculation he may remain on the board [1] - The candidate list has narrowed from 11 to 5, with potential candidates including Hassett, Fed Governor Waller, and Vice Chair Bowman [1][4] Group 2: Candidate Profile - Kevin Hassett - Kevin Hassett, 63, holds a Ph.D. in economics from the University of Pennsylvania and has previously served as a senior economist at the Federal Reserve and a professor at Columbia University [4] - Hassett has been a proponent of monetary easing to stimulate growth and aligns closely with Trump's economic views, advocating for tax cuts, fiscal expansion, deregulation, and low interest rates [4] - Analysts suggest that if Hassett is appointed, he may lower the federal funds rate from the current range of 3.75% to 4% to below 3% without significantly threatening the Fed's independence [4] Group 3: Market Expectations and Economic Indicators - Citic Securities emphasizes that the unemployment rate will be crucial for the Fed's decision on interest rates in December, with expectations of a potential rate cut of 25 basis points [5] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December is currently at 87.6%, reflecting a growing expectation among market participants [5]

Group 1 - Silver prices have surged, with COMEX silver reaching a record high of $57.245 per ounce, marking a maximum increase of 6.79% during trading [1] - The London spot silver also saw a significant rise, with a peak increase of 5.74%, while domestic futures in China hit a high of 13,239 yuan per kilogram, up 5.55% [1] - The driving force behind the rising silver prices is the increasing expectation of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, with an 85.4% probability of a 25 basis point cut [2] Group 2 - The global silver supply is expected to remain flat at 813 million ounces in 2025, with a slight increase in recycling but a projected 4% decline in demand to 1.12 billion ounces [3] - Despite the stable industrial demand for silver, a significant supply deficit is anticipated for the fifth consecutive year in 2025, estimated at 95 million ounces [4] - The solar energy sector has emerged as a major variable in silver demand, although it is expected to peak in 2024 and experience a marginal decline in 2025 [4] Group 3 - Over the past decade, silver prices have increased by approximately 301.8%, with the gold-silver ratio fluctuating between 63 and 122 [5] - Silver's dual attributes of being both a financial and industrial metal have led to its price volatility, with periods of correlation and divergence from gold prices [7] - The past ten years have seen silver's industrial demand grow, particularly in sectors like photovoltaics, AI, and semiconductors, indicating potential for further price increases [8]

Group 1 - A majority of economists expect the Bank of Japan to raise key interest rates in October or December, with nearly 96% predicting a minimum increase of 25 basis points by the end of March next year [1][2] - Among 75 economists surveyed, 60% anticipate the Bank of Japan will raise short-term rates from 0.50% to 0.75% within the current quarter [1] - The internal stance of the Bank of Japan's policy committee appears to favor an interest rate hike, despite potential delays due to domestic political and global economic uncertainties [2] Group 2 - Financial markets currently price in a 40% probability of an interest rate hike before the end of the year [3] - High City Sawa, the newly appointed Prime Minister, has committed to increasing government spending in key areas such as energy and economic security under a framework of "responsible and proactive fiscal policy" [3] - Among respondents, 67% expressed uncertainty about agreeing with High City Sawa's economic policies [3][4] Group 3 - Concerns about the impact of fiscal policies on financial health were raised by nearly two-thirds of respondents [4] - Market pressures, such as rising long-term bond yields, may constrain fiscal expansion efforts [5]

Core Viewpoint - The election of Sanna Takichi as the new president of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) is expected to lead to her becoming the new Prime Minister of Japan, with a strong inclination towards "Abenomics," favoring monetary easing, yen depreciation, and fiscal expansion [3][4]. Election Results - On October 4, the LDP held a presidential election where Takichi emerged victorious after two rounds of voting, contrary to media predictions that favored her opponent, Shinzo Koizumi [4][5]. - In the first round, Takichi received 119 votes from party members, while Koizumi received 84 votes, leading to a second round where Takichi secured 149 votes from national assembly members compared to Koizumi's 145 [15]. Reasons for Takichi's Victory - Takichi's popularity among LDP members was a significant factor, as she garnered substantial support in both the party member and local party branch votes [5]. - Koizumi's lack of clear policy proposals and cautious election strategy contributed to his defeat, as he failed to resonate with the party's broader membership [5]. Economic and Financial Policy Proposals - Takichi is seen as a staunch supporter of Abenomics, advocating for monetary easing and fiscal expansion [3][7]. - Her proposed tax policies include raising the income threshold for tax exemptions, implementing cash subsidies for low-income families, and abolishing temporary gasoline tax rates, reflecting a strategy for cross-party collaboration [8]. - Takichi has expressed a preference for maintaining a loose monetary policy, indicating that the Bank of Japan should decide on specific monetary tools while emphasizing the negative impacts of rapid interest rate hikes on investment and housing [9]. Currency and Fiscal Policy - Takichi appears to favor a weaker yen, arguing that yen depreciation benefits export industries and contributes positively to Japan's economic strength [10]. - She supports fiscal expansion and deficit financing, focusing on strategic investments to stimulate economic growth and increase tax revenues, while maintaining that as long as nominal growth exceeds government bond interest rates, debt-to-GDP ratios can remain stable [11]. Short-term Market Reactions - The unexpected nature of Takichi's election is likely to lead to significant price fluctuations in Japanese assets, with expectations of yen depreciation, rising stock prices, and a steepening yield curve for Japanese bonds [14]. - Historical trends from previous elections suggest that markets may react similarly, with potential increases in the Nikkei index and further depreciation of the yen against the dollar [14].

Group 1 - The article discusses whether the gold market has reached its peak, linking it to global debt dynamics and the recent fluctuations in the Hong Kong market [3] - During the holiday period, gold prices surpassed $4000 per ounce, driven by a long-term trend of debt expansion among major global economies, which is expected to continue until 2025 [3] - The appointment of Japan's first female Prime Minister, who advocates for fiscal and monetary easing, is seen as a reinforcement of the bullish outlook for gold, as her policies aim to revitalize Japan's economy through increased spending and investment [3]