Group 1 - The market is anticipating a significant shift in the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) interest rate policy, with expectations for a potential rate hike as early as March or April, influenced by economic and price outlooks [1] - A recent Reuters survey indicates that most economists expect the BOJ to raise the policy rate to 1% by the end of June, moving the timeline forward from previous predictions [1] - Morgan Stanley's research shows that some investors are pricing in the possibility of an earlier rate hike in April, with discussions of a potential action in March [1] Group 2 - The January meeting minutes reveal a convergence of internal disagreements among BOJ policymakers regarding the timing of interest rate hikes, with some members expressing concerns about the transmission of labor costs to core CPI [2] - Key inflation data releases are lagging behind policy meetings, with national CPI and Tokyo CPI data set to be published after the April meeting, creating uncertainty for BOJ decisions [2] - Market participants are closely monitoring comments from BOJ officials, as their statements may provide critical insights into future policy directions during this data vacuum [2] Group 3 - Investors are developing a new understanding of the fiscal stance of Prime Minister Kishi's government, shifting from concerns over excessive fiscal expansion to evaluating selective fiscal easing [3] - The focus is on the latest developments from the Consumption Tax Reduction National Committee, as market participants assess its potential impact on fiscal management frameworks [3] Group 4 - There is a growing interest in Japan's economic upward potential, moving beyond anti-inflation logic to encompass security and strategic investment areas [4] - Investors are particularly interested in the implications of national security-related policies on various industries, with expectations for an expansion of related fiscal budgets [5] - The focus is on crisis management and strategic investment sectors, including economic security, healthcare, and key strategic industries like AI and semiconductors [5]

日本股市全线反攻。 2月18日，在亚洲多个主要市场因假期休市的背景下，日本市场成为焦点，日本股市开盘后，各大指数 全线大涨，日经225指数狂飙超700点。有分析指出，日本新政府组建临近，叠加隔夜美股市场企稳，做 多资金重返日本股市。 与此同时，美国总统特朗普宣布，日本已正式且实际地推进其5500亿美元对美投资承诺下的首批项目， 三个"大项目"涉及得州油气战略、俄亥俄州发电和佐治亚州关键矿产领域。有评论指出，首批投资或将 为高市早苗3月19日访美并与特朗普会晤铺平道路。 日本股市大涨 2月18日，日本股市高开高走，截至发稿，日经225指数大涨超710点，涨幅达1.23%，强势站稳57000点 关口，终结此前的四连跌；日本东证指数大涨1.3%至3809.18点。 日股上涨带动亚太指数，MSCI太平洋指数上涨超1%，但交易量因多个地区市场休市而明显偏低。 据央视新闻最新报道，当地时间2月18日下午，日本国会众议院首相指名选举投票开始。当天上午，高 市早苗内阁集体辞职，日本国会众参两院将先后举行首相指名选举。 根据相关规定，在首相指名选举中，议员可以投出空白票。在第一轮投票中，得票过半者即可直接胜 出，如果没有候选人 ...

凯投宏观（Capital Economics）的Marcel Thieliant在评论中表示，日本第四季度GDP增长疲软可能刺激 进一步的财政宽松。这位亚太区主管指出，早些时候公布的第四季度初步数据显示，"企业投资仅环比 增长0.2%，净出口持平，公共需求则环比下降0.2%"。Thieliant表示，这意味着11月底通过的大规模补 充预算尚未对上一季度的公共支出起到提振作用。Thieliant补充说，疲软的经济活动增加了首相高市早 苗不仅会推进暂停对食品征收消费税，而且会在4月份开始的财年上半年就制定一项补充预算，而不是 等到2026年底的可能性。 责任编辑：王永生 凯投宏观（Capital Economics）的Marcel Thieliant在评论中表示，日本第四季度GDP增长疲软可能刺激 进一步的财政宽松。这位亚太区主管指出，早些时候公布的第四季度初步数据显示，"企业投资仅环比 增长0.2%，净出口持平，公共需求则环比下降0.2%"。Thieliant表示，这意味着11月底通过的大规模补 充预算尚未对上一季度的公共支出起到提振作用。Thieliant补充说，疲软的经济活动增加了首相高市早 苗不仅会推进暂 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - With the nomination of the new Fed Chair and the release of Q4 earnings of large US tech companies, overseas policy easing and AI industry expansion narratives have fluctuated, leading to a decline in market risk appetite. Meanwhile, the central bank restarted the 14 - day reverse repurchase operation, and the money market remained balanced and loose. The bond market strengthened this week, and futures bond prices generally rose [6]. - In the future, the decline in the profit - making effect of risk assets and the approach of the Spring Festival may bring incremental funds to the bond market. The probability of the 10Y Treasury yield breaking below 1.8% is increasing. However, the short - term yield decline may be limited due to weak policy rate cut expectations, and the bond market sentiment may turn cautious as the second - hand housing market in core cities shows signs of stabilization and important meetings are approaching after the Spring Festival [6]. - The short - term risk - off does not mean a fundamental reversal of the optimistic macro - narrative, and the de - leveraging of risk assets does not mean a complete reversal of their trends [6]. 3. Summary According to Different Sections 3.1 First Part: Weekly Core Points Analysis and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Market Analysis - **Market risk appetite decline**: The nomination of the new Fed Chair and Q4 earnings of large US tech companies caused fluctuations in overseas policy easing and AI industry expansion narratives. This led to increased volatility in global risk asset prices, which spread to the domestic market. The decline in risk - asset profit - making effect and risk appetite was beneficial to the bond market, driving the bond market to strengthen this week [16]. - **Stable cross - festival funds**: Next week, government bond issuance and payment will increase to 6436.87 million yuan. With the approaching Spring Festival, cross - festival fund prices are expected to converge. However, the central bank's clear attitude to protect liquidity may limit the actual fluctuation of fund prices [18]. - **Partial recovery of the second - hand housing market**: Recently, the second - hand housing market in some core cities has shown signs of marginal stabilization, especially in first - tier cities where the second - hand housing listing price index has risen for three consecutive weeks since mid - January. This may be due to the introduction of local housing purchase policies and the market's need for stabilization after a rapid price decline in Q4 last year. However, the sustainability of the recovery needs further observation [29][31]. - **Low valuation of futures bond market**: As of Friday's close, the IRR of TS, TF, T, and TL main contracts were 1.3104%, 1.4461%, 1.3764%, and 1.3644% respectively. Compared with spot bonds, the futures bond market valuation was mostly at a slightly lower - than - neutral level [36]. - **Slow progress of main contract roll - over**: The roll - over of main contracts accelerated this week but was still slower than the historical average. As of Friday, the roll - over progress of TS, TF, T, and TL contracts was 22.0%, 34.7%, 24.6%, and 35.3% respectively [37]. - **Net short - position dominance in the top ten futures seats**: During the rise of futures prices this week, the net long - position ratio of the top ten seats decreased. As of Friday, the net position ratios of TS, TF, T, and TL top ten seats were - 21.38%, - 6.99%, - 4.58%, and - 3.30% respectively. With low contract valuation, slow roll - over, net short - position dominance, and no significant increase in interest - rate cut expectations, the inter - delivery spread may strengthen periodically [44]. - **High spread between new and old ultra - long bonds**: The spread between new and old 30Y bonds widened significantly this week and then narrowed. As of Friday, the spreads between the CTD bonds of TL current and next - season contracts and active bonds were 7.71bp and 7.10bp respectively. It is recommended to short the spread between new and old ultra - long bonds using futures bonds. However, significant spread narrowing may require the elimination of negative factors such as government bond supply, and the next - season TL contract may be a better choice for arbitrage positions [47]. 3.1.2 Strategy Recommendations - **Single - side strategy**: Partially take profits on long TL positions and hold the remaining lightly [7][8]. - **Arbitrage strategy**: Pay appropriate attention to going long on the T - contract inter - delivery spread and shorting the spread between new and old ultra - long bonds using futures bonds [7][8]. 3.2 Second Part: Related Data Tracking - **Bond futures contract spreads**: Data on spreads between TS, TF, T, and TL contracts are provided, showing historical trends [52]. - **Trading volume and open interest**: Data on trading volume and open interest of TS, TF, T, and TL contracts are presented [55]. - **Spot bond yields and spreads**: Information on Treasury bond yield curves, term spreads, spreads between Treasury and local bonds, and spreads between 10Y Treasury and CDB bonds are given [58]. - **US Treasury yields and exchange rates**: Data on US 10 - year Treasury yields, Sino - US 10 - year Treasury yield spreads, the US dollar index, and the offshore US dollar - RMB exchange rate are provided [61].

1月21日周三，鲍威尔将出席美国最高法院关于美联储理事Lisa Cook案件的口头辩论。高市早苗宣布2 月8号举行日本众议院选举：将结束过度紧缩的财政政策。 特朗普据称"私信"欧方扬言不再只考虑"和平"、美必须控制格陵兰，公开讲话时拒绝说明是否会以武力 夺取，称若未就该岛问题达成协议将"百分之百"落实对欧关税。 【机构观点】 特朗普强购格陵兰岛可能是"TACO交易"，欧洲反制措施只具有象征性，但是美国仍在向伊朗等中东方 向调遣军队，引导地缘政治风险此起彼伏；全球主要国家财政宽松预期，美国一季度或释放六千亿美元 流动性，多国央行持续增加黄金储备，或使贵金属价格易涨难跌，但亦需警惕美国12月就业数据好坏参 半和消费端通胀CPI保持平稳，叠加多位美联储官员对继续降息保持谨慎，使市场预期美联储1月几无 降息且降息时点4月推迟至6月，特朗普政府对美联储主席鲍威尔的刑事诉讼态度有所缓和，美国暂未对 白银、铂、钯等关键矿产加征进口关税。 【黄金期货行情表现】 1月20日，沪金主力暂报1054.66元/克，涨幅0.92%，今日沪金主力开盘价1045.28元/克，截至目前最高 1055.56元/克，最低1042.62元/克。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Maintain a wait - and - see stance, waiting for price pullbacks to stabilize [1] 2. Report's Core View - Macro and industrial factors jointly drove strong price increases in platinum and palladium, but prices fluctuated significantly and fell sharply in the last week of December. In the first quarter of this year, the overseas macro - environment will have a negative impact on the precious metals sector. It is expected that after further price declines, the volatility of platinum - group metals will significantly narrow. Currently, it is recommended to temporarily observe platinum and palladium strategies [9] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Market Outlook - Since the listing of domestic platinum - group metals, they have generally shown a trend of rising first and then falling. From November 27th to December 31st, the price of the platinum main contract rose 19.56% to 527.25 yuan/gram, and the palladium main contract price rose 12.79% to 425.2 yuan/gram [10] - In December, the NYMEX platinum main contract price rose 38.85% to $2220 per ounce, and the palladium main contract price rose 15.09% to $1685.5 per ounce. However, in the last week of December, platinum and palladium prices fell 4.31% and 14.18% respectively [9] - The Fed's interest - rate cut and balance - sheet expansion in December, along with potential future policy directions, drove up precious metal prices. The EU's decision to abandon the internal combustion engine vehicle ban boosted the demand outlook for catalysts, driving up platinum and palladium prices. But due to weak demand and relatively weak reserve and investment attributes, prices fell after the trading sentiment subsided [9] 3.2 Market Review - **Platinum Price**: The platinum price rose 38.85% to $2220 per ounce this month, and the total position increased from 83,700 lots in the week of November 25th to 97,000 lots in the week of December 16th [17] - **Palladium Price**: The palladium price rose 15.09% to $1685.5 per ounce this month, and the total position increased from 19,100 lots in the week of November 25th to 22,000 lots in the week of December 16th [18] - **Domestic Platinum Price and Spread**: As of December 31st, the spot price of platinum on the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 511.5 yuan/gram. Affected by the adjustment of the import VAT exemption policy, the premium of domestic platinum significantly recovered [21] - **Lease Rate**: As of December 31st, the one - month implied lease rate of platinum spot was 19.67%, and that of palladium was 6.50%, both at the highest levels in the same period in the past five years [22] - **Platinum CFTC Net Position**: In the week of December 16th, the net long position of NYMEX platinum managed funds increased from 13,800 lots to 15,400 lots [25] - **Palladium CFTC Net Position**: The net position of palladium managed funds turned from short to long, with a current net long position of 293 lots [28] 3.3 Inventory and ETF Holdings Changes - **Platinum ETF Holdings**: From December 1st to 30th, the total overseas platinum ETF holdings increased from 75.35 tons to 76.59 tons [39] - **Palladium ETF Holdings**: From December 1st to 30th, the total overseas palladium ETF holdings increased from 14.74 tons to 15.41 tons [42] - **Platinum Inventory**: The US platinum exchange inventory remained at a high level. As of December 30th, the CME platinum inventory was 20.12 tons [46] - **Palladium Inventory**: The CME palladium inventory continued to increase, reaching 6.53 tons as of December 30th [51] 3.4 Supply and Demand - **Platinum Mining**: The predicted platinum production of the top 15 global mines in the fourth quarter of 2025 will reach 33.18 tons. The total annual production in 2025 will be 127.47 tons, a 1.9% decrease from 2024, indicating a contraction in platinum supply at the mine end [57] - **Palladium Mining**: The total production of the top 15 global palladium mines in the fourth quarter will be 41.36 tons. In 2025, the production of some mines will decline, but the production of Impala in South Africa will increase by 12%. Overall, the annual production of the top 15 mines will slightly contract, decreasing by 0.86% to 165.78 tons [60] - **China's Platinum Imports**: As of November, China's cumulative platinum imports reached 91.64 tons, a slight 4.82% year - on - year decrease [63] - **China's Palladium Imports**: The cumulative palladium imports were 31.21 tons, a 19.71% year - on - year increase [66] 3.5 Monthly and Cross - Market Spreads - **NYMEX Platinum Monthly Spread**: The report presents various monthly spreads of NYMEX platinum, such as 1 - 4, 4 - 7, 7 - 10, and 10 - 1 spreads [88][83] - **NYMEX Palladium Monthly Spread**: The report shows various monthly spreads of NYMEX palladium, including 3 - 6, 6 - 9, 9 - 12, and 12 - 3 spreads [95][91] - **London Market Spot and NYMEX Spread**: The report provides the spreads between the London market spot platinum price and NYMEX platinum price, as well as the spreads between the London market spot palladium price and NYMEX palladium price [97]

Core Insights - The commodity market in 2025 is characterized as a "structural bull market," with significant annual gains in gold and silver, while oil prices face pressure due to supply-demand dynamics [1] - Goldman Sachs' 2026 Commodity Outlook indicates a trend towards "increasing differentiation" in the commodity market, with overall returns expected to moderate but significant disparities among different commodities [1][2] - Key factors influencing the market include the geopolitical tensions between the US and China, the competition in AI, and dual supply shocks in the energy market [1][2] Commodity Performance - Precious metals, particularly gold and silver, are expected to continue their strong performance into 2026, with gold prices projected to reach $4,900 per ounce and silver between $50-$60 per ounce [3][6] - Industrial metals like copper are forecasted to maintain a strong price trajectory, with potential average prices between $11,400 and $12,075 per ton, driven by demand from technology and energy transitions [6][8] - The oil market is anticipated to face downward pressure, with Goldman Sachs predicting Brent and WTI crude oil prices to average $56 and $52 respectively in 2026, reflecting a supply surplus [8] Economic and Policy Context - The shift from "monetary easing + fiscal tightening" to "fiscal expansion + accelerated de-globalization" has highlighted the value of physical assets, creating structural opportunities in commodities [2] - The expected continuation of a loose monetary policy by the Federal Reserve in 2026 is seen as a catalyst for increased investment in commodities, as it lowers the opportunity cost of holding these assets [2] Market Dynamics - The energy market is expected to experience significant changes due to supply shocks in both oil and LNG, impacting pricing and availability [1][8] - The agricultural market's performance in 2026 is uncertain, with potential impacts from climate anomalies and trade policy changes affecting supply and demand dynamics [8] Strategic Focus - The 2026 commodity market will require a nuanced approach, moving away from a one-size-fits-all investment strategy to focus on structural opportunities influenced by geopolitical and technological factors [10]

Group 1 - President Trump addressed the nation on December 17, highlighting achievements over the past 11 months and announcing measures to alleviate economic anxiety among the public [1][4] - Trump claimed to have reduced costs for various goods and services, including gasoline, eggs, airline tickets, and hotels, while also increasing wage growth and curbing immigration [1][4] - The announcement included the upcoming selection of a new Federal Reserve chair, with candidates likely being National Economic Council Director Hassett and former Fed Governor Warsh, both of whom have differing views on monetary policy [1][4] Group 2 - Trump revealed that the government sent checks of $1,776 to 1.45 million military personnel, a figure symbolizing the year of America's founding [6] - Recent polls indicate that public concern over economic issues is high, with only 33% of Americans approving of Trump's economic management and 39% approving of his overall job performance [6] - Treasury Secretary Mnuchin reiterated the vision of the "Trump Account" plan, aimed at increasing stock market participation among Americans, with a one-time deposit of $1,000 for newborns to invest in index funds [6]

Core Viewpoint - The price of gold in Shanghai has been rising since December 10, with a cumulative increase of over 2%, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts and balance sheet expansion by the Federal Reserve, global fiscal expansion trends, and actual gold purchases by central banks [1]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The U.S. non-farm employment in November exceeded expectations, but the previous value declined, raising concerns about a weakening labor market as the unemployment rate increased [3]. - The Federal Reserve began purchasing $40 billion in bonds monthly from December 12 to bolster bank reserves, with plans to gradually reduce this to $20-25 billion in response to natural balance sheet expansion and liquidity gaps from quantitative tightening [3]. - Global fiscal expansion is evident, with the U.S. "Build Back Better" plan raising the debt ceiling by $5 trillion and increasing the deficit by $3.4 trillion; Japan approved a stimulus of ¥21.3 trillion (approximately $135.4 billion); and the UK's fiscal buffer expanded to £22 billion, with net borrowing for the fiscal year 2025-2026 adjusted to £138.3 billion [3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The Bank of Japan may raise interest rates by 25 basis points on December 19, which could weaken the low-interest rate advantage and lead to a return of funds from pensions and insurance, potentially reducing demand for U.S. Treasuries and impacting markets like U.S. stocks and cryptocurrencies [3]. - There is a caution regarding the Bloomberg Commodity Index rebalancing in January 2026, which may lower the weight of gold and silver, leading to potential technical selling by passive funds and short-term pressure on these metals [4]. - In the medium to long term, the Federal Reserve's balance sheet expansion, global fiscal easing, geopolitical risks, and central bank gold purchases are expected to support gold prices, while short-term concerns include the reversal of carry trades and index rebalancing [4]. Group 3: Gold Futures Analysis - Shanghai gold futures are showing a bullish trend, breaking through key resistance levels, with short-term moving averages indicating a bullish arrangement and MACD indicators showing continued bullish momentum [5]. - The Bollinger Bands are opening upwards, with prices approaching the upper band, and the RSI indicator is in a neutral to strong area, reflecting cautious optimism in market sentiment [5]. - Key support is noted at 976 yuan per gram, with resistance around 983 yuan per gram; a breakthrough of resistance could open up further upward movement, while a pullback may test support [5].

Market Dynamics - The correlation between price movements and economic data/news has weakened again, with rising yields being the market's default choice in both the US and Eurozone [2] - Eurozone economic data is generally lackluster, while US data shows mixed signals, with consumer confidence assessments exceeding expectations but inflation expectations declining [2] - The US yield curve has generally risen by 3.7-3.9 basis points, moving further away from recent support levels, with the 2-year yield at 3.56% [2] - The market is maintaining a neutral stance ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy decision, despite expectations for further easing [2] - Eurozone swap rates have also increased by over 3-4 basis points, with slight narrowing of the French-German bond yield spread [2] Federal Reserve Focus - Market attention remains on the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, with expectations for a cautious stance and a potential 25 basis point rate cut to mitigate labor market risks [3] - The Fed's decision-making is still characterized by significant internal disagreement, with no hard data to support a change in the current policy stance [3] - Future guidance on potential easing will depend on labor market and CPI data updates following the Fed's decision [3] Hungary Credit Rating - Fitch has maintained Hungary's BBB credit rating but revised the outlook from stable to negative due to deteriorating public finance conditions [4] - The agency forecasts the deficit to widen from 5% this year to 5.6% by 2026, exceeding previous expectations [4] - Debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to rise from 73.5% in 2024 to 74.6% by the end of 2027, with economic growth expected to stabilize around 2.3% next year [4] UK Employment Report - The S&P Global UK employment report indicates a continued decline in recruitment activity, with permanent job vacancies decreasing for the fifth consecutive month [5] - Temporary worker pay has slightly decreased, while permanent salary growth remains at historical lows due to increased labor supply and intense job competition [5] - The current environment is described as complex and variable, with pre-budget tension impacting temporary hiring [5]