债券 2025 年 12 月 11 日 美联储那些事儿 美联储议息会议：政策利率处于"有利位置" 证券分析师 图表1 鲍威尔发布会表态要点 资料来源： FED ，平安证券研究所 9月以来的降息使当前利率整体处于中性的区间(within a broad range o f estimates o f neutral)和有利的位置 （well positioned t o wait too see how the economy evolved），可以等待观察经济的演变，美联储将谨慎评 估即将到来的数据。 在评估家庭调查数据时必须谨慎，因为劳动力市场数据收集方式可能存在一些问题，导致数据出现偏差， 不仅波动性更大，还会出现扭曲的情况；同时1 0月和1 1月部分数据可能未能收集齐全，美联储需要以谨慎 和怀疑的态度来审视这些数据。 不认为当前存在加息的预期。 就储备管理购买（reserve management purchase），因为4月15日是纳税日，居民和企业缴税可能导致准备金季节 性回落，所以未来几个月将保持较高的购债规模；此外，准备金规模需要跟随银行体系和经济规模增长，这可能 导致准备金需要每月增加200- ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points in December, aligning with expectations, marking the third rate cut since September[2] - The Fed plans to purchase $40 billion in short-term bonds over the next 30 days to maintain adequate reserve supply[2] - The Fed's internal divisions regarding rate cuts have increased, with three voting members opposing the decision, the highest dissent since 2019[5] Group 2: Economic Forecasts - The Fed significantly raised its GDP forecast for 2026 by 0.5 percentage points to 2.3%[3] - Unemployment rate projections for 2026 and 2027 remain at 4.4% and 4.2%, respectively, with slight adjustments made to future years[6] - The PCE inflation rate forecast for 2026 was lowered by 0.2 percentage points to 2.4%[4] Group 3: Future Rate Expectations - The Fed maintains expectations for two additional 25 basis point rate cuts in the coming year, with a target federal funds rate of 3%-3.25% by year-end[1] - Future rate adjustments will depend on economic data and evolving risks, indicating a cautious approach[4] - The potential for rate hikes in the second half of next year is limited, as the economic conditions may not warrant such actions[1]

Group 1 - The current economic environment is experiencing a positive productivity shock, potentially driven by AI and policy factors, contributing to higher GDP projections [1][2] - There is a notable increase in productivity growth, with recent years showing 2% productivity growth, which is higher than previous trends [1][2] - AI is believed to enhance individual productivity, as users of AI tools report increased efficiency in their personal and professional lives [2][3] Group 2 - The rise in productivity may lead to job displacement, necessitating a reevaluation of labor market dynamics and social implications [3] - The pandemic has accelerated automation and the use of technology, which has further increased productivity levels [4] - The implications of higher productivity could suggest a higher neutral interest rate, potentially allowing for more accommodative monetary policy [4][5]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is experiencing significant shifts in its stance, with members oscillating between hawkish and dovish positions, leading to confusion about monetary policy direction [1][2]. Economic Indicators - Inflation is reportedly decreasing, and the unemployment rate is also declining, with GDP growth surprising analysts by rising from 1.8% to 2.3% [2][3]. Labor Market - There is optimism regarding the cessation of layoffs, which is viewed positively as it aligns with the goal of stabilizing the labor market [3]. Bond Market Dynamics - Despite economic data suggesting a robust economy, bond yields have not reacted as expected, indicating that large investors may be influencing market conditions [4][5]. Political Influence on Monetary Policy - The relationship between the Federal Reserve and the White House is perceived to be increasingly political, with concerns that this may affect the independence of monetary policy decisions [9][10]. Leadership and Governance - There is a call for a change in leadership within the FOMC, emphasizing that the committee has the authority to elect its chair, which could differ from the president's nomination [6][7][8].

The Federal Reserve reducing interest rates by an expected quarter point to a new range of 3.5% to 3.75%. There were three descents, the first time that's happened since September 2019. Two were against the cut, including Chicago Fed President Austin Goulby along with um Kansas City Fed President Jeff Smith.His second descent in a row. Also another disscent for a 50 basis point cut from new Fed governor on loan from the administration Steven Myron. To recap, the vote was nine for cutting a quarter, two agai ...

Economic Data Overview - Economic data is crucial for understanding the state of the economy, encompassing various indicators such as jobs data, housing data, consumer confidence, and inflation [1][2][3] Jobs Data - Key reports include weekly jobless claims, job openings, and the monthly jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which are essential for assessing labor market health [4][9] - Weekly jobless claims serve as a leading indicator of the labor market, with rising claims indicating a potential slowdown and falling claims suggesting job growth [5][6] - The monthly jobs report provides a comprehensive view of job growth, unemployment rates, and wage growth, while the job openings and labor turnover survey (JOLTS) offers insights into hiring and resignations [7][8] Consumer Data - Consumer sentiment, retail sales, and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) are vital for gauging consumer behavior and economic health [10][12] - CPI is a key measure of inflation, influencing Fed policy decisions and market trends [11][12] - The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index reflects consumer optimism and is used to inform policymakers [13] Retail Sales - Retail sales data provides insights into total revenue generated by retailers, indicating economic strength or weakness based on sales growth rates [14][15] GDP - Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is released quarterly and indicates economic growth, with two consecutive quarters of negative growth signaling a recession [16][17] Housing Data - Housing-related data, including pending home sales, housing starts, and various price indices, is critical for understanding economic health [18][19] - Pending home sales indicate future market activity, while housing starts reflect construction activity and its impact on jobs and consumer spending [20][22] Manufacturing Data - The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing index is a leading indicator of the manufacturing sector's health, influencing Fed policy decisions [23][24] - An index reading above 50 indicates expansion, while below 50 signals contraction, tracking key indicators like production and new orders [25] Summary of Economic Data Importance - Economic data significantly influences market trends and investor decisions, necessitating awareness of upcoming data releases and their potential impact on stocks and Fed interest rate decisions [26]

加拿大央行决议声明：重申如果预测实质化，那利率大致处于"合理的水平"。不确定性偏高，如果前景 改变，央行准备做出反应。维持核心通胀率预期在2.5%附近。预计2026年GDP将适度增长，通胀率将 接近2%这一目标。鉴于GST在一季度结束，短期CPI可能更高。GDP（预测）修订，意味着进入2025年 的产能和需求更加强劲。在贸易敏感性行业，就业形势近期"（变得）更加稳定"。放眼未来，预计（整 体）经济的招聘意图会受抑。关税已经造成破坏，但经济整体上具有韧性。 ...

Joining us on set Joe Leavia he is counselor to Scott Besset treasury secretary of these fine the United States happy prefed day Joe thanks for joining us >> happy Tuesday >> yes or Tuesday uh what is your expect so what is your expectation from the Fed and then what would your hope from the Fed be if they are not the same thing the more interesting question Brian is where is neutral where is the neutral rate and the neutral rate is probably a lot lower uh than where many in the market think because you loo ...

Industry Trend & Observation - The way of dying has shifted from fast incidents to gradual and predictable processes, largely due to advancements in medicine and social systems [1][2][3] - Human ingenuity has led to a population of 8 billion with the most resources per capita ever, but preventable deaths still persist [4][5] - Diseases of aging are the result of damage that builds up over decades, with median ages of diagnosis being 66 for cancer, 65 for heart attacks, and 83 for dementia [7] Economic Impact & Investment Opportunity - The US could spend half its federal budget, approximately $3 trillion per year, on adults aged 65 and older by the end of the decade [8][9] - Curing all cancers would be worth about $80 trillion to the US economy in the long run [16] - A 5-year shift backwards in biological aging for people aged 40 and older in the US could yield over $100 trillion to the US economy over several decades, adding about $2 trillion per year to US GDP [24] Potential Solutions & Strategies - Investing in the science of aging could redesign how humans live, work, give birth, and die [17] - Slowing reproductive aging can be seen as investments in older adults who would otherwise suffer from conditions like menopause [26] - Public and philanthropic funds and a sense of moral urgency are needed to precede scientific results in technically demanding fields like aging [29]

Despite initial fears of a steep recession triggered by Donald Trump’s trade war, global GDP is expected to grow by around 3% in 2025. But which country did the best? https://t.co/ac4lpDJNyd ...