文 | 古书奇谭 编辑 | 古书奇谭 2024年中美GDP呈现诡异反差，汇率换算下中国18.74万亿美元对上美国29.18万亿美元，看似差距拉大，但购买力平价（PPP）核算中，中国38.19万亿国 际元较美国高出31%，达1.31倍。 鲜为人知的是，2016年中国PPPGDP就以19.65万亿国际元反超美国，为何两种算法差这么多？8年从反超到拉开31%差距，未来真能如马斯克所言达美国 两到三倍？ 汇率GDP的失真陷阱 全球默认用汇率换算的美元GDP衡量经济规模，可这种方式有个致命缺陷，完全忽略各国物价差异，这也是中国经济长期被低估的关键。 生活里的例子最直观，美国纽约、洛杉矶的男性理发，一次要30-60美元，而中国北京、上海、深圳的同档次服务，也就30-60元人民币。 同样的服务体验，按实际能买到的东西算，人民币和美元这会儿几乎是1:1，但换算成美元GDP时，中国理发行业创造的价值就硬生生变成了美国的七分 之一。 这种失真在历史上更明显，1987年是中美GDP差距的峰值，按汇率算，中国0.273万亿美元的GDP只相当于美国4.86万亿美元的1/18。 而人均GDP更是只有美国的1/80，这种悬殊让当时不少人都 ...

Group 1 - The International Monetary Fund's latest prediction indicates that China's GDP will exceed $40 trillion this year, making it the world's largest economy, while the U.S. GDP stands at $30.51 trillion [2] - The concept of Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) is used to eliminate the effects of currency fluctuations and price levels, providing a clearer picture of a country's actual production capacity and consumer purchasing power [4] - China's economy is heavily rooted in substantial and complete industrial sectors, with significant contributions in steel (over 60% of global production), cement (50%), and home appliances (30%) [6] Group 2 - The PPP method reveals a new global economic landscape, with China and the U.S. together accounting for over one-third of the global economy, while emerging economies like India, Russia, and Indonesia are rising in prominence [8][10] - By 2025, Asia's GDP is expected to account for 48.6% of the global economy, indicating a shift in economic growth towards the East [10] - China's semiconductor market is projected to exceed $180 billion, capturing 30% of the global market, showcasing its technological self-reliance [12] Group 3 - Trade with countries along the Belt and Road Initiative has reached 42.2% of China's total foreign trade, with significant growth in exports to ASEAN, the Middle East, and Africa [14] - The U.S. faces structural challenges, including a national debt exceeding $37 trillion and rising inflation, which is eroding consumer purchasing power [16] - The PPP forecast for 2025 signifies a shift towards a development model that emphasizes the connection between economic growth and improvements in living standards [18][20]

为持续加强西湖统计队伍建设，西湖区统计局开展2025年"统计一堂课"分享交流活动，在这里，不同岗位的统计小伙伴们能打破壁垒、跨岗交流，分享经 验，碰撞出思想的火花，一起为统计事业添砖加瓦！ 国际比较项目简称（ICP）InternationalComparisonProgram是由联合国统计委员会发起，由世界银行等国际机构组织实施的一项全球最大的国际统计合作项 目。 实施目的 通过收集各经济体价格数据和GDP支出数据来测算购买力平价（PPP），并以PPP作为货币转换系数，评估和比较各经济体实际经济规模。 完成轮次 自1968年开始，已完成10轮。目前该项目每3年开展一轮，最近一轮2021年轮，全球176个经济体参与。2024年轮为全球第11轮。 2025年"统计一堂课"第四期来啦，主讲人工业与投资调查科章欢、统计科童麟，分别分享《规上工业发展形势及工业统计知识》《2024年轮国际比较项目 （ICP）政府职务报酬调查讲解》。 今天，统计科童麟带来了《2024年轮国际比较项目（ICP）政府职务报酬调查讲解》，一起来看看什么是ICP、PPP？ 什么是ICP？ 简介 调查内容 什么是PPP？ 简介 ICP具体调查什么？ ...

Core Viewpoint - The article presents a systematic assessment of the equilibrium exchange rate of the Renminbi (RMB) from 2010 to 2025 using a dynamic equilibrium measurement model (TVP-BEER), indicating that the RMB maintains inherent stability driven by economic fundamentals despite global financial fluctuations [1]. Summary by Sections RMB Equilibrium Exchange Rate Model Selection - The research identifies four main paths for equilibrium exchange rate studies, including the price benchmark method (PPP), fundamental equilibrium exchange rate (FEER), natural real exchange rate (NATREX), and the BEER method, each with its advantages and limitations [2][3][4]. Introduction of Time-Varying Parameters - The article emphasizes the selection of the BEER framework for estimating the RMB equilibrium exchange rate due to its empirical operability and explanatory power, while introducing time-varying parameters to better reflect the dynamic nature of economic conditions [4]. RMB Effective Exchange Rate Trends - The RMB's real effective exchange rate (REER) has shown phase characteristics over the past 15 years, with significant appreciation driven by productivity differences and improved trade conditions before 2010, followed by stability despite external shocks [7][8]. Comparison of Static and Dynamic Models - The static BEER model captures long-term trends but struggles during structural shifts and external shocks, while the TVP-BEER model provides a more accurate equilibrium estimate, maintaining a deviation of less than 0.5% from actual values during turbulent periods [8][11]. Factors Influencing RMB Equilibrium - The static BEER model indicates significant positive effects from productivity differences and trade conditions on the RMB equilibrium level, while net foreign assets and fiscal spending show negative coefficients, reflecting market concerns about potential risks [13]. Future Outlook for RMB - The RMB is expected to maintain a stable trajectory, supported by ongoing economic structural transformation, consumption upgrades, and steady progress in RMB internationalization, with limited risks of significant deviation from equilibrium [15][18].

Core Insights - The article highlights the disparity between China's GDP growth and the perception of its economic standing compared to the US and Vietnam, emphasizing that the narrative of a widening gap is misleading [1][3]. Economic Growth Projections - China's GDP is projected to exceed 140 trillion yuan by 2025, representing an increase of over 10 trillion yuan from 2023, equivalent to recreating the economic scale of Shandong Province [3]. - The GDP gap between China and the US is expected to widen, with specific dollar figures indicating an increase in disparity over the year [3]. Currency and Inflation Impact - Exchange rate fluctuations significantly affect the dollar value of China's GDP, with a depreciation of the yuan leading to a reduction of approximately 160 billion USD in GDP value when converted to dollars [3]. - The difference in inflation rates distorts the perception of economic growth, with China's low inflation resulting in a lower nominal GDP growth compared to the US, which experiences higher inflation rates [5]. Vietnam's Economic Performance - Vietnam's GDP growth rate reached impressive figures in 2023, but its overall GDP remains significantly smaller than China's, with projections indicating that Vietnam's annual GDP is only a fraction of China's [6]. - Vietnam's economy is heavily reliant on the US market, making it vulnerable to changes in US policy, contrasting with China's more diversified economic structure [6]. Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) Perspective - The article argues that GDP figures based on purchasing power parity (PPP) provide a more accurate reflection of economic strength, with China surpassing the US in PPP terms since a certain year and maintaining a growing lead [7][9]. - In 2023, China's PPP GDP reached a significant figure, further illustrating its economic capabilities compared to the US [9]. Structural Economic Strength - China's manufacturing sector contributes a substantial percentage to global output, with a diverse range of industries, indicating a solid foundation for economic growth rather than short-term gains [11]. - The country is transitioning from manufacturing to innovation, with significant investments in research and development, showcasing its technological advancement [11]. Employment and Social Welfare - China has been creating millions of new jobs annually, with healthcare coverage expanding, reflecting genuine improvements in living standards rather than superficial economic growth [11]. Comparison with the US - The US experienced a decline in GDP in the first quarter, relying on inflation for growth, which raises concerns about the sustainability of its economic model [13]. - The article concludes that while short-term perceptions may suggest a widening gap, China's long-term economic resilience and competitiveness are expected to strengthen [13].

几周之前曾被热议的中国资产重估逻辑，还继续有效吗？ 制图 丨 黄帧昕 编辑 丨 王姗姗 4 月 2 日特朗普签署所谓 "对等关税" 行政令，宣布 美国对所有贸易伙伴加征 10% 的 "最低基准关 税"， 并对部分贸易伙伴征收更高关税，其中给中国的 "对等关税" 税率达到 34%。此后连续三个交易 日（至 4 月 7 日），全球金融市场暴跌，美国股市蒸发了超过 6 万亿美元。港股则在 4 月 7 日抹平了 开年以来所有涨幅，上证指数创下 8 年来最大单日跌幅。 本周，中美关税争端还在继续升级。4 月 8 日，美国针对中国政府的坚决反制，报复性地宣布对中国 输美商品征收 "对等关税" 的税率由 34 % 提高至 84 %。 中国并不示弱，4 月 9 日反制进一步升级 ——对美加征关税税率由 34 % 提高至 84 %。 "这是一个史诗般的经济和市场事件。" 美国著名基金经理比尔·格罗斯（Bill Gross）在上周表示，本 轮美国关税政策调整的影响，形同 1971 年和金本位制的终结但会带来直接的负面后果，因此他呼吁 投资者不应该试图 "接下落的刀"。 反映市场波动率的芝加哥期权交易所 VIX 指数，也被称为 " ...