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纷纷下架!银行5年期大额存单逐渐消失,有客户经理建议买国债
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-10 04:39
Core Viewpoint - The trend of major banks in China, including Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, China Merchants Bank, and CITIC Bank, is to withdraw five-year large denomination certificates of deposit (CDs) and shorten the maximum term of available CDs to two years, in response to declining interest margins [1][3]. Group 1: Bank Actions - Major banks are actively reducing long-term liabilities by lowering the interest rates on long-term large denomination CDs or even suspending the issuance of three and five-year products to mitigate the risk of future cost-revenue inversion [1][4]. - As of recent searches, five-year large denomination CDs are no longer available on the apps of major state-owned banks, with the longest available term being three years at a rate of 1.55% [1]. - China Merchants Bank has also removed three and five-year large denomination CDs from sale, currently offering only products with terms of two years or less, with rates below 2.15% [3]. Group 2: Interest Rate Trends - The average interest rates for one-year, two-year, three-year, and five-year large denomination CDs are reported as 1.719%, 1.867%, 2.197%, and 2.038% respectively, indicating a general decline in rates [4]. - The interest rates for three-year large denomination CDs have decreased by approximately 80 basis points compared to the same period in 2024, with current rates concentrated between 1.55% and 1.8% [3]. - The latest seven-day annualized yield for Tianhong Yu'ebao has reached 1.18%, which is close to the one-year large denomination CD rate of 1.2%, highlighting the diminishing advantage of large denomination CDs in terms of interest rates [3]. Group 3: Industry Context - The banking sector is currently facing low net interest margins, with the net interest margin further declining to 1.43% in the first quarter of 2025, down 9 basis points from the end of 2024 [4]. - The pressure on net interest margins is exacerbated by the continuous decline in loan yields due to multiple reductions in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR), while the trend of increasing fixed-term deposits intensifies the burden of high-interest liabilities [4][5]. - The suspension of five-year large denomination CDs and the reduction of medium to long-term deposit products are necessary measures for banks to lower funding costs and stabilize net interest margins [5].
多家银行,暂停发售这类产品
Zhong Guo Ji Jin Bao· 2025-06-09 16:07
Core Viewpoint - The recent trend shows that medium to long-term large-denomination certificates of deposit (CDs) are being quietly withdrawn from sale by several major banks, with a focus on three-year and five-year terms, leading to a significant drop in interest rates for these products [1][2][4]. Group 1: Market Changes - Major banks such as Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, China Construction Bank, and China Merchants Bank have removed five-year large-denomination CDs from their offerings, with some also discontinuing three-year CDs [2][4]. - Currently, most banks are only offering large-denomination CDs with a maximum term of two years, and the availability of three-year CDs is limited or restricted to select clients [2][4]. Group 2: Interest Rate Trends - The interest rates for available large-denomination CDs have collectively dropped to the "1" range, with specific rates for different terms: for example, ICBC offers rates of 0.9% for one month and 1.55% for three years [3][4]. - The overall interest rates for two-year and shorter large-denomination CDs are concentrated between 0.9% and 1.4%, while three-year rates range from 1.55% to 1.75% [3]. Group 3: Bank Strategies - Banks are increasingly focusing on managing their funding costs, which has led to the withdrawal of medium to long-term large-denomination CDs as a strategy to stabilize net interest margins [4]. - The banking sector is under pressure to reduce funding costs, especially in a declining interest rate environment, which affects their willingness to attract long-term deposits at higher costs [4].
固收:利率为何会创新低
2025-06-09 15:30
Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the fixed income market and interest rate trends in the context of the broader financial environment in China, particularly focusing on government bonds and corporate financing costs. Core Insights and Arguments - **Interest Rate Trends**: There is a prevailing expectation that interest rates will continue to decline, with current rates for certain bonds nearing historical lows. For instance, the rate for 30-year government bonds is approximately 1.9% and for corporate bonds like Shidai New Materials, it is around 1.66% [3][12]. - **Market Dynamics**: The decline in interest rates is attributed to easing concerns at the end of the quarter and the central bank's liquidity support. Banks have been buying older bonds, especially short-term ones, due to reduced pressure on profitability [2][4]. - **Impact of Deposit Rates**: The rapid decrease in deposit rates, with major banks reducing rates by 50 to 70 basis points, has significantly lowered overall funding costs in the market. This trend is expected to continue, further affecting fixed income asset yields [7][8]. - **Corporate Financing Costs**: As corporate financing costs decrease, financial institutions face challenges in balancing liabilities and net interest margins. The decline in funding costs is a key factor driving down overall market yields [6][10]. - **Broad vs. Policy Interest Rates**: Broad interest rates, which include yields on loans and other alternative assets, are more reflective of market conditions than policy rates, which tend to lag behind. Currently, actual funding costs are higher than the policy benchmark by approximately 1.4% [5][12]. - **Future Market Expectations**: The market anticipates a new downward phase for interest rates, driven by changes in supply and demand dynamics and increased liquidity from the central bank. The government bond supply is expected to slow down in the third quarter [3][14]. Additional Important Insights - **Insurance Sector Impact**: The insurance industry has seen a reduction in preset rates to around 2.13%, which may further decrease, affecting the cost of liabilities and the return expectations for financial institutions [10]. - **Net Interest Margin Trends**: Banks have experienced a decline in net interest margins, with the average dropping to about 1.4% in the first quarter, indicating pressure on profitability due to lower asset yields [11]. - **Trade Negotiations**: The impact of U.S.-China trade negotiations on the Chinese bond market is considered limited in the short term, with a focus on actual trade data rather than negotiation progress. Investors are advised to adopt strategies that leverage short-term positions while extending duration on long-term bonds [15].
这类存款产品正悄然“下架”
Jin Rong Shi Bao· 2025-06-08 10:04
6月8日,记者收到光大银行的大额存单发售提示,了解后发现,该行当前在售的大额存单最长期限为3 年。其他银行的情况也类似,工商银行、建设银行、浦发银行、招商银行……包括多家地方城商行在 内,近期发售的产品中5年期大额存单已经悄然"下架",部分银行在售大额存单的最长期限为2年期。 银行在售的特色存款中,中长期产品也难觅踪迹,记者查询银行APP发现,多家商业银行在售的特色存 款产品期限均不超过1年。 利率方面,当前商业银行在售的大额存单产品中,股份制银行3年期大额存单的利率大多为1.75%,国 有大行3年期大额存单的利率则均为1.55%。 与整存整取的定期存款相比,大额存单产品此前具备的"利率优势"正在缩小。以工行、建行为例,当前 3年期大额存单利率与定期存款利率最高均为1.55%,已然拉平。3个月期、6个月期等部分期限较低的 存款产品中,大额存单利率仅较定存产品高出10个基点。部分农商行等地方中小银行的在售产品中,更 是已经难觅大额存单产品的踪迹。 在业内人士看来,当前银行普遍暂停五年期大额存单发行,不再提供中长期特色存款等是为了降低负债 成本,保持合理净息差水平的需要。当部分商业银行3年期、5年期定期存款产品出 ...
年中检视:美国市场十大问题Q&A(美银更新版 )
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-06-06 05:51
2.客户活动会反弹吗? 回答:可能(调整为"中性偏乐观",原回答为"是") 3.银行监管会发生重大变化吗? 回答:是(维持原判) 核心逻辑: 利率(Rates):结构性高利率环境对净息差(NIM)有利,长期利率中枢上移可能提升银行盈利 能力。 监管(Regulations):政策转向更平衡的监管环境,资本与流动性要求有望下调,推动市盈率 (P/E)重估。 活动反弹(Rebounding Activity):尽管短期受关税等因素扰动,企业并购(M&A)、贷款需求 等有望在2025年下半年改善。 市场表现:全球系统重要性银行(GSIB)股票及每股收益(EPS)修正年初至今(YTD)表现优于 标普500指数,而地区性银行表现落后。 风险提示:通胀反弹可能迫使美联储重启加息,贸易摩擦升级或抑制经济活动,股市波动引发"负 财富效应"。 现状与挑战: 2025年初受特朗普政府关税政策(如对加拿大、墨西哥加征关税)影响,企业信心受挫,并购 活动创十年最低开局,债务发行短期波动。 近期中美关税摩擦边际缓和,部分银行(如高盛、摩根士丹利)5月后观察到交易活动边际改 善。 未来展望: 若贸易环境稳定,预计2025年下半年并购、I ...
大额存单全面进入“1时代”,银行优化负债结构
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-06-05 12:13
Core Viewpoint - The interest rates for large certificates of deposit (CDs) have significantly decreased, entering the "1.x" era, prompting banks to adjust their offerings and investors to reconsider their asset allocation strategies [1][2][5] Interest Rate Adjustments - Major state-owned banks have lowered their rates for 1-year and 2-year large CDs to 1.2%, with 3-year rates at 1.55%, while some banks have even suspended longer-term products [1][2] - The average interest rate for 3-year large CDs across major banks has dropped to a range of 1.55% to 1.75%, down approximately 80 basis points compared to the same period in 2024 [2][5] - Smaller banks have also reduced rates, with some 3-year CDs dropping from 2.6% to 2.4%, reflecting a broader trend of declining interest rates [2][4] Competitive Landscape - The interest rate advantage of large CDs over traditional fixed deposits has narrowed, with rates for similar terms only slightly higher or even equal [3][4] - Money market funds are becoming increasingly attractive, with yields approaching those of large CDs, while having a much lower investment threshold [3][4] Impact on Bank Profitability - The decline in large CD rates is a response to the pressure on banks' net interest margins, which have been affected by lower loan pricing and high-cost deposits [5][6] - As of the first quarter of 2025, the net interest margin for commercial banks fell to 1.43%, a decrease of 9 basis points from the previous quarter [5][6] Strategic Adjustments - Banks are actively managing their liabilities by reducing the issuance of long-term large CDs to alleviate pressure on their interest margins [6] - This strategy not only aims to enhance banks' interest income but also creates room for further reductions in loan rates, fostering a positive cycle for the real economy [6]
银行业周报:存款利率调降稳定息差-20250604
强于大市 银行业周报 存款利率调降稳定息差 按申万一级行业分类标准,银行板块本周上涨 0.04%,上周上涨 0.61%,银 行板块涨跌幅由高到低排名 18/31,较上周排名下降 10 位。个股方面 A 股 42 家银行有 26 家上涨。拉长时间来看,年初至今银行板块涨幅 7.70%,在全行 业中排名第四,红利仍然是银行的主线,关注银行股投资价值,建议关注招 商银行、农业银行。 银行 | 证券研究报告 — 行业周报 2025 年 6 月 4 日 5 月 20 日,六家国有大行及招商银行、光大银行率先下调了存款挂牌利 率,随后几日,其余股份行以及部分城农商行纷纷下调利率,目前仅郑 州银行尚未跟进调降存款利率。本次调降中,五大行活期利率下调 5 bp 至 0.05%;定期整存整取 3 个月期、半年期、1 年期、2 年期均下调 15bp, 分别为 0.65%、0.85%、0.95%、1.05%;3 年期和 5 年期均下调 25 bp, 分别至 1.25%和 1.30%。定期零存整取、整存零取、存本取息三种期限均 下调 15 bp。7 天期通知存款利率下调 15 bp 至 0.30%。 5 月 7 日央行宣布要"实施好 ...
日本股市遭遇历史性失血,银行股“神话”面临考验
Huan Qiu Wang· 2025-06-01 03:28
Group 1 - The core point of the articles highlights unprecedented capital outflows from Japanese stock funds, amounting to $11.8 billion, marking the largest weekly outflow on record [1] - Bank stocks in Japan, despite being the best-performing sector globally over the past three years, are showing concerning trends as they fail to rise in tandem with increasing Japanese government bond yields [1][3] - Concerns regarding the Bank of Japan's policy normalization, including the end of negative interest rates and yield curve control, are leading to fears of a rapid tightening of financial conditions [3] Group 2 - The rapid rise in bond yields is interpreted as a sign of doubts about Japan's economic growth potential and resilience, which counteracts the benefits of improved bank net interest margins [3] - After three years of strong performance, the valuation attractiveness of the banking sector has diminished, prompting significant capital to lock in profits amid rising yields [3] - The current situation in the Japanese market, particularly for bank stocks, reflects a critical contradiction where the theoretical benefits of monetary policy shifts are overshadowed by deep concerns about economic outlook and financial stability [3]
亚洲股票及利率网络直播:香港银行同业拆借利率下降-对港元资产的影响
Hui Feng Yin Hang· 2025-05-30 07:20
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for BOCHK Holdings (2388 HK) despite the decline in HIBOR, indicating resilience in the stock [2]. Core Insights - HIBOR is at a three-year low, raising questions about its implications for the Hong Kong stock market. Strong local liquidity is supporting the market, even with rising HIBOR [1][4]. - The real estate market is expected to gain more support due to low HIBOR, while local banks may face declining net interest margins and slower income growth [4]. Summary by Sections HIBOR and Market Impact - HIBOR's decline is a significant factor influencing investor sentiment and market dynamics in Hong Kong [1][4]. - The report discusses the implications of HIBOR fluctuations on the stock market, local banks, and the real estate sector [4]. Company Ratings - BOCHK Holdings (2388 HK) is rated as a "Buy" due to its resilience despite the declining HIBOR [2]. - Sino Land (83 HK) has been downgraded to "Hold" due to increasing profit pressures [2]. Real Estate Market - The report highlights the growing resilience of the Hong Kong real estate market, suggesting a more stable foundation moving forward [2][4].
银行业周度追踪2025年第20周:新一轮存款降息缓释净息差压力-20250526
Changjiang Securities· 2025-05-26 15:36
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the banking industry is "Positive" and maintained [10] Core Insights - The Yangtze Bank Index increased by 0.6% this week, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 0.8% and the ChiNext Index by 1.5%. The market's focus on bank stocks has notably increased due to the logic of active fund allocation [2][6] - Following a 10 basis point (BP) reduction in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) in May, major banks initiated a new round of deposit rate cuts. The interest rate for demand deposits decreased by 5 BP to 0.05%, while the rates for one-year, three-year, and five-year fixed deposits were reduced by 15 BP, 25 BP, and 25 BP respectively, with the one-year fixed deposit rate falling below 1.0% to 0.95% [7][26] - The recent deposit rate cuts are expected to effectively offset the impact of the LPR reduction, leading to a narrowing of the decline in net interest margins (NIM) in the future [8][30] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The Yangtze Bank Index's performance this week shows a cumulative increase of 0.6%, with significant contributions from city commercial banks like Qingdao Bank, which reported a revenue growth rate that exceeded expectations [6][17] - The average dividend yield for the five major state-owned banks in A-shares is 4.49%, with a 277 BP spread over the 10-year government bond yield, while the H-shares yield is even higher at 5.75% [19][24] Deposit Rate Cuts - The recent round of deposit rate cuts is the seventh since 2022, aimed at alleviating the pressure on banks' net interest margins. The current NIM for state-owned banks has reached a new low of 1.33% [7][28] - The report anticipates that the deposit rates will continue to have downward space, but due to the significant cuts already made, no further reductions are expected before the end of 2025 [26][30] Impact on Net Interest Margin - The deposit rate cuts are expected to provide a positive contribution to the banks' NIM, with estimates suggesting an average positive impact of 5 BP from the recent rate adjustments [30][31] - The banks with a higher proportion of fixed deposits and lower mortgage ratios are expected to benefit more from the recent rate cuts [31] Convertible Bonds and Valuation Opportunities - There is a growing market interest in convertible bonds issued by banks, particularly those like Hangzhou Bank, which are expected to see valuation recovery as they exceed forced redemption prices [34][35] - Other banks such as Nanjing Bank and Qilu Bank are also highlighted for their potential valuation recovery as they approach their respective conversion prices [34]