| | | | | 尿素早评20250526:回落空间有限 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日度 | | | 单位 | 5月23日 | 5月22日 | 变化值 | 英化值 | | | | | | | | (绝对值) | (相对值) | | UR01 山东 期现价格 | 民素期货价格 (收盘价) | | 元/吨 元/吨 | 1753.00 1880.00 | 1766.00 1880.00 | -13.00 0.00 | -0.74% 0.00% | | UR05 | | | 元/吨 | 1762.00 | 1772.00 | -10.00 | -0.56% | | UR09 | | | 元/吨 | 1827.00 | 1849.00 | -22.00 | -1.19% | | 山西 | | | 元/吨 | 1730.00 | 1750.00 | -20.00 | -1.14% | | 河南 | 国内现货价格 | | 元/吨 | 1880.00 | 1890.00 | -10.00 | -0.53% | | 河北 | (小顆 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating is neutral, and it is expected that the urea market will continue to fluctuate within a narrow range [3] Core Viewpoints - The restriction on urea exports has been lifted, and manufacturers are exporting in an orderly manner with self - discipline. The willingness to ship goods to ports for export has increased, leading to a rise in urea port inventories. Urea production facilities that were shut down have restarted, and the operating rates of both coal - based and gas - based production have increased. The supply side remains at a high level. The operating rates of downstream compound fertilizers and melamine have decreased month - on - month, and the rigid demand from downstream industries has weakened. Due to drought and high temperatures in the north and heavy rainfall in the south, agricultural demand is lukewarm, and inventories in urea factories have accumulated. There are expectations of an increase in short - term downstream agricultural and export demand for urea [2] Summaries by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - It includes charts of Shandong urea small - particle market price, Henan urea small - particle market price, Shandong main - continuous basis, Henan main - continuous basis, urea main continuous contract price, 1 - 5 spread, 5 - 9 spread, and 9 - 1 spread [7][8][16][18] 2. Urea Production - It involves charts of urea weekly production and urea plant maintenance loss [18] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - It contains charts of production cost, spot production profit, disk production profit, national capacity utilization rate, coal - based capacity utilization rate, and gas - based capacity utilization rate [20][25][26] 4. Urea FOB Price and Export Profit - It consists of charts of urea small - particle FOB in the Baltic Sea, urea large - particle CFR in Southeast Asia, urea small - particle FOB in China, urea large - particle CFR in China, the difference between urea small - particle FOB in the Baltic Sea and China's FOB minus 30, the difference between urea large - particle CFR in Southeast Asia and China's FOB, urea export profit, and disk export profit [28][33][41] 5. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - It has charts of compound fertilizer operating rate, melamine operating rate, and pending order days [47][43] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - It includes charts of upstream in - factory inventory, port inventory, raw material inventory days of Hebei's urea downstream manufacturers, futures warehouse receipts, main contract holding volume, and main contract trading volume [46][48][51] Market Data - **Price and Basis**: On May 22, 2025, the closing price of the urea main contract was 1,849 yuan/ton (- 6); the ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Henan was 1,890 yuan/ton (0); the small - particle price in Shandong was 1,880 yuan/ton (+ 0); the small - particle price in Jiangsu was 1,900 yuan/ton (- 10); the price of small - block anthracite was 660 yuan/ton (+ 0). The basis in Shandong was 31 yuan/ton (+ 6); the basis in Henan was 41 yuan/ton (+ 6); the basis in Jiangsu was 51 yuan/ton (- 4). The urea production profit was 413 yuan/ton (+ 0), and the export profit was 447 yuan/ton (- 6) [1] - **Supply Side**: As of May 22, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 88.56% (0.08%). The total inventory of sample enterprises was 91.74 million tons (+ 10.02), and the inventory of port samples was 20.30 million tons (+ 4.00) [1] - **Demand Side**: As of May 22, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 37.57% (- 2.69%); the capacity utilization rate of melamine was 66.49% (- 8.33%); the advance order days of urea enterprises were 5.94 days (- 0.35) [1]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 尿素早报 2025-5-21 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 数据来源：钢联 大越期货整理 -300 -200 -100 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 1500 1700 1900 2100 2300 2500 2700 2900 2023/1/1 2023/4/1 2023/7/1 2023/10/1 2024/1/1 2024/4/1 2024/7/1 2024/10/1 2025/1/1 2025/4/1 坐标轴标题 U R期现价格及基差 基差 主力收盘 现货 • 尿素概述： • 1. 基本面：近期尿素盘面反弹后震荡运行。供应方面，开工率及日产持续高位，近期有新装 置投产，库存短期快速回落。需求端，工业需求中复合肥开工显著回落，复合肥 ...

价格与基差：2025-05-19，尿素主力收盘1847元/吨（-30）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1910 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1900元/吨（-30）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1930元/吨（-10）；小块无烟煤660元/吨（+0），山东基差：53 元/吨（+0）；河南基差：63元/吨（+20）；江苏基差：83元/吨（+20）；尿素生产利润433元/吨（-30），出口利润419 元/吨（-16）。 供应端：截至2025-05-19，企业产能利用率86.40%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为81.72 万吨（-24.84），港口样本 库存量为16.30 万吨（+3.00）。 需求端：截至2025-05-19，复合肥产能利用率40.26%（+2.36%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为74.82%（-0.42%）；尿素 企业预收订单天数6.29日（+0.47）。 前期尿素出口利好情况释放完毕，尿素盘面偏弱运行。尿素停车装置重启，同时部分装置停车检修，整体开工率 窄幅波动，供应端维持高位运行。尿素出口放松预期，下游接货积极性提升明显，工农业均增加采购，工厂订单 量增加，上游工厂库存逐渐下降，港口库存明显增加。当前 ...

| | | 商 品 研 究 2025 年 05 月 19 日 尿素：高位震荡 尿素基本面数据 | | 项 目 | 项目名称 | | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 尿素主力 | 收盘价 | （元/吨） | 1,877 | 1,892 | -15 | | | | 结算价 | （元/吨） | 1,877 | 1,894 | -17 | | | | 成交量 | （手） | 186,596 | 413,756 | -227160 | | | （09合约） | 持仓量 | （手） | 239,683 | 245,094 | -5411 | | | | 仓单数量 | （吨） | 7,355 | 7,352 | 3 | | | | 成交额 | （万元） | 700,580 | 1,566,907 | -866327 | | | 基 差 | 山东地区基差 | | 5 3 | 5 8 | - 5 | | | | 丰喜-盘面 | （运费约100元/吨） | -7 | -7 | 0 | | | | 东光-盘面 | （ ...

| | | 尿素早评20250516: 逢低做多为主 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 日慶 | 变化值 变化值 单位 5月15日 5月14日 | | | | | | | | | | | | | (絶対值) | (相对值) | | 期现价格 | 尿素期货价格 (收盘价) | UR01 山东 山西 | 元/吨 元/吨 元/吨 | 1799.00 1950.00 1890.00 | 1814.00 1950.00 1890.00 | -15.00 0.00 0.00 | -0.83% 0.00% 0.00% | | | | UR05 | 元/吨 | 1868.00 | 1900.00 | -32.00 | -1.68% | | | | UR09 | 元/吨 | 1892.00 | 1886.00 | 6.00 | 0.32% | | 国内现货价格 | | | | | | | | | | | 河南 | 元/吨 | 1920.00 | 1930.00 | -10.00 | -0.52% | | (小顆粒) | | 河北 ...

市场分析 价格与基差：2025-05-14，尿素主力收盘1886元/吨（-11）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1930 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1950元/吨（-20）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1950元/吨（+0）；小块无烟煤660元/吨（+0），山东基差：64 元/吨（-9）；河南基差：44元/吨（+11）；江苏基差：64元/吨（+11）；尿素生产利润483元/吨（-20），出口利润425 元/吨（-8）。 供应端：截至2025-05-14，企业产能利用率87.35%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为81.72 万吨（-24.84），港口样本 库存量为13.30 万吨（+1.50）。 需求端：截至2025-05-14，复合肥产能利用率37.90%（-2.70%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为75.24%（+0.08%）；尿素 企业预收订单天数6.29日（+0.47）。 尿素出口有放开预期，但公布出口数量不及市场预期，市场情绪有所降温，尿素盘面回落。前期部分尿素检修装 置逐步恢复重启，新增装置释放产能，尿素产量高位运行。煤炭与天然气价格保持稳定，生产成本稳定。当前仍 处于尿素传统需求旺季，南方水稻用肥量较多，北方 ...

| | | | | 尿素早评20250514: 尿素偏强震荡 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日慶 | | (绝对值) | 单位 | 5月13日 | 5月12日 | 变化值 | 英化值 (相对值) -0.17% | | UR01 UR05 山东 山西 | 民素期货价格 (收盘价) | | 元/吨 元/吨 元/吨 元/吨 | 1798.00 1930.00 1980.00 1890.00 | 1801.00 1925.00 1970.00 1890.00 | -3.00 5.00 10.00 0.00 | | | | | | | | | | 0.26% | | UR09 | | | 元/吨 | 1897.00 | 1897.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | | 期现价格 | | | | | | | 0.51% | | 国内现货价格 | | | | | | | 0.00% | | 河南 | | | 元/吨 | 1930.00 | 1930.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | | 河北 | (小顆粒) | | 元/吨 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a neutral rating for urea, expecting the urea market to continue to fluctuate within a narrow range [3] Core Viewpoints - The self - regulated urea export volume is lower than market expectations. Currently in the traditional urea demand peak season, agricultural demand is gradually increasing, industrial demand is stable, and production is at a high level. With the implementation of export policies, export demand is expected to increase [1][2] Summaries by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - Includes figures on Shandong and Henan urea small - particle market prices, Shandong and Henan main - contract basis, urea main continuous contract price, 1 - 5 spread, 5 - 9 spread, and 9 - 1 spread, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [7][8][9] 2. Urea Production - Involves figures on weekly urea production and urea plant maintenance loss volume, sourced from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [18] 3. Urea Production Profit and Capacity Utilization - Covers figures on production cost, spot production profit, disk production profit, national capacity utilization, coal - based capacity utilization, and gas - based capacity utilization, with data from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [17][18][21] 4. Urea FOB Prices and Export Profits - Comprises figures on urea small - particle FOB in the Baltic Sea, urea large - particle CFR in Southeast Asia, urea small - particle FOB in China, urea large - particle CFR in China, the difference between urea small - particle FOB in the Baltic Sea and China, the difference between urea large - particle CFR in Southeast Asia and China, urea export profit, and disk export profit, sourced from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [24][26][30] 5. Urea Downstream Capacity Utilization and Orders - Contains figures on compound fertilizer capacity utilization, melamine capacity utilization, and urea enterprise advance order days, with data from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [47] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Includes figures on upstream in - plant inventory, port inventory, raw material inventory days of urea downstream manufacturers in Hebei, futures warehouse receipts, main - contract open interest, and main - contract trading volume, sourced from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [46][48][49]

Market Sentiment - The urea futures contract 2509 saw a significant increase of over 7% before the Labor Day holiday, boosting market sentiment [1] - Following the holiday, the contract continued its upward trend, reaching 1926 CNY/ton on May 9 [1] - The market sentiment is primarily driven by expectations of relaxed export policies, leading to a notable rise in spot prices in Henan [2] Price Movements - On the last trading day before the holiday, the main spot price in Henan was 1860 CNY/ton, up 40 CNY/ton or 2.2% from the previous day [2] - By May 7, the price further increased to 1900 CNY/ton, and on May 9, it reached 1910 CNY/ton [2] - The urea 2509 contract recorded a weekly increase of 2.05% as of May 9 [2] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Urea production capacity utilization reached 89.21% before the holiday, with a daily output of 205,700 tons [4] - Despite a slight decrease in supply post-holiday due to maintenance, the overall production remains high, with weekly output at 1.41 million tons, up 0.93 thousand tons from the end of April [4] - Agricultural demand is expected to improve, particularly in the Yellow River and Huaihai regions, with preparations for summer corn fertilizer underway [3] Cost Factors - The cost of urea is influenced by declining coal prices, which have dropped over 3% during the holiday week, leading to a decrease in production costs [5] - The high inventory levels and increased supply from coal mines are expected to keep coal prices under pressure, which may weaken support for urea prices [5] Profitability and Future Outlook - With decreasing costs, urea producers are likely to see improved profit margins, which may lead to higher operational activity and increased market supply [6] - In the short term, prices may remain stable due to positive sentiment from export policy expectations and improving demand [6] - However, in the medium to long term, high supply levels and limited demand support may restrict further price increases [6]