尿素日报 | 2025-06-20 下游跟进放缓，尿素小幅回落 需求端：截至2025-06-19，复合肥产能利用率31.82%（-1.99%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为64.32%（+0.55%）；尿素 企业预收订单天数6.29日（+0.58）。 尿素下游跟进放缓，盘面小幅回落。以色列伊朗军事冲突持续，国际尿素价格高位运行，出口与外盘价格提振， 港口库存呈现小幅增加趋势。当前正值传统农需旺季，全国大部分地区水稻、玉米等作物的追肥旺季，多数企业 新单成交尚可，尿素企业订单天数小幅增加。同时下游工业需求减弱，复合肥、三聚氰胺等行业开工率环比走低。 尿素产量持续处于高位，且未来检修计划较少，供应端压力较大，市场呈现供大于求格局，厂内库存处于高位。 策略 中性。 风险 国内出口政策、装置检修情况、库存变动情况、农业需求情况。 市场分析 价格与基差：2025-06-19，尿素主力收盘1780元/吨（-9）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1830 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1840元/吨（+10）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1840元/吨（-10）；小块无烟煤750元/吨（+0），山东基差：60 元/吨（+19）；河南基差：50 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a neutral rating, expecting the urea market to continue to fluctuate within a narrow range [3] Core Viewpoints - The market trading of urea is stable with narrow fluctuations. The supply is in a loose pattern due to high - level production and new capacity release. The cost is stable as coal and gas prices change little. The export window is open, and the port inventory has increased. The agricultural demand is growing steadily, while the industrial demand is weakening, and the factory inventory has slightly increased. The urea market is expected to continue narrow - range oscillations [1][2][3] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - The report presents data on Shandong and Henan urea small - particle market prices, Shandong and Henan main - contract basis, urea main - continuous contract price, 1 - 5 spread, 5 - 9 spread, and 9 - 1 spread [1][7][8] 2. Urea Production - It shows information about urea weekly production and urea plant maintenance loss volume [16] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - Data on production cost, spot production profit, disk production profit, national capacity utilization rate, coal - based capacity utilization rate, and gas - based capacity utilization rate are provided [19][30][32] 4. Urea Overseas Price and Export Profit - The report includes data on urea small - particle FOB in the Baltic Sea, urea large - particle CFR in Southeast Asia, urea small - particle FOB in China, urea large - particle CFR in China, urea export profit, and disk export profit [27][31][43] 5. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - Information about the operating rates of compound fertilizers and melamine, and urea enterprises' advance order days are presented [1][44][49] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Data on upstream in - factory inventory, port inventory, raw material inventory days of downstream urea manufacturers in Hebei, futures warehouse receipts, main - contract holding volume, and main - contract trading volume are provided [47][50][53]