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尿素日报:下游刚需拿货-20260331
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2026-03-31 06:19
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Urea spot ex-factory prices have reached the March guidance price, remaining stable during the critical period of spring plowing supply guarantee and price stability. The off-season reserve starts to be fully released in March. Affected by geopolitical conflict news, the overall volatility of bulk commodities has intensified, leading to fluctuations in the urea futures market and a slowdown in spot transactions. Downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs. Supply has decreased slightly due to an increase in temporary malfunctions. In the demand side, the application of greening fertilizers in central regions is nearing completion, while spring plowing in South China and Southwest China is in progress. The operating rate of compound fertilizers continues to rise, with good sales of previously low-priced orders but some resistance to high prices in the market. The melamine market sentiment is positive, with good export prospects, rising prices, and an increasing operating rate, leading to rigid demand for purchases. Recently, industrial demand has increased, resulting in a reduction in factory inventories and a slight increase in port inventories. The situation in Iran has caused a significant increase in international urea prices, but there is no new news about domestic export quotas, so the high overseas urea prices cannot be effectively transmitted to the domestic market. Continued attention should be paid to export dynamics, the rhythm of off-season reserve release, and the sustainability of spot purchase sentiment [2] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - On March 30, 2026, the closing price of the urea main contract was 1,882 yuan/ton (+5). The ex-factory price of small granular urea in Henan was 1,860 yuan/ton (0), in Shandong was 1,900 yuan/ton (+0), and in Jiangsu was 1,900 yuan/ton (+10). The basis in Shandong was 18 yuan/ton (-5), in Henan was -22 yuan/ton (-5), and in Jiangsu was 18 yuan/ton (+5) [1] 2. Urea Production - As of March 30, 2026, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 88.35% (0.08%). The total inventory of sample enterprises was 70.05 tons (-10.84), and the port sample inventory was 16.90 tons (+0.20) [1] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - The urea production profit was 300 yuan/ton (+0) [1] 4. Urea FOB Price and Export Profit - The export profit was 3,112 yuan/ton (+285) [1] 5. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - As of March 30, 2026, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 51.24% (+1.27%); the capacity utilization rate of melamine was 65.98% (+6.67%); the number of pre - received order days of urea enterprises was 8.24 days (-0.05) [1] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - As of March 30, 2026, the total inventory of sample enterprises was 70.05 tons (-10.84), and the port sample inventory was 16.90 tons (+0.20) [1] Strategies - Unilateral: Range - bound oscillation - Inter - period: Wait - and - see - Inter - variety: None [3]
农需走弱,工业需求走强
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2026-03-26 05:41
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Oscillation; Inter - period: Observation; Inter - variety: None [3] 2. Core Viewpoints - The agricultural demand for urea is weakening while the industrial demand is strengthening. The ex - factory price of urea spot has reached the March guidance price, and the price is mainly stable during the key period of spring plowing supply guarantee and price stability. The off - season storage starts to be fully released in March. Affected by geopolitical conflict news, the bulk market has corrected, the urea futures market has fluctuated, and spot trading has slowed down. Supply has decreased slightly due to more temporary failures. In the demand side, the application of green - turning fertilizer in the central region is nearly over, and spring plowing is in progress in the South China and Southwest regions. The operation rate of compound fertilizer has continued to rise, with good shipment of low - price orders and some resistance to high - price markets. The melamine market is in good sentiment, with rising prices, increasing operation rate, and rigid demand for procurement. Recently, industrial demand has increased, factory inventory has decreased, and port inventory has slightly decreased. The situation in Iran has caused a sharp rise in international urea prices, but there is no new news about domestic export quotas, so the high overseas urea prices cannot be effectively transmitted to the domestic market. Follow - up attention should be paid to export dynamics, off - season storage release rhythm, and the sustainability of spot procurement sentiment [1][2] 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Urea Basis Structure - The report presents figures related to Shandong and Henan urea small - particle prices, Henan basis, urea main contract closing price, 1 - 5 spread, 5 - 9 spread, and 9 - 1 spread [6][7][9] 3.2 Urea Production - Figures about urea weekly output and urea plant maintenance loss volume are provided [24] 3.3 Urea Production Profit and Operation Rate - The report shows figures on urea production cost, urea production profit, coal - based capacity utilization rate, and natural gas - based capacity utilization rate [22][29] 3.4 Urea Outer - Market Price and Export Profit - Figures related to urea small - particle FOB in the Baltic Sea, urea large - particle CFR in Southeast Asia, urea small - particle and large - particle FOB in China, the difference between urea small - particle FOB in the Baltic Sea and China FOB minus 30, the difference between urea large - particle CFR in Southeast Asia and China FOB, export profit, and on - disk export profit are presented [36][41][43] 3.5 Urea Downstream Operation and Orders - Figures about compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate, melamine capacity utilization rate, and pending order days are shown [49][54] 3.6 Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Figures related to factory inventory, port inventory, raw material inventory of urea downstream manufacturers in Hebei, urea warehouse receipt quantity, urea main contract holding volume, and urea main contract trading volume are provided [50][59][58]
盘面提振成交好转
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2026-03-24 06:23
Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Oscillation [3] - Inter - period: Wait - and - see [3] - Inter - variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - Urea spot ex - factory quotes have reached the March guidance price, and the domestic market is in a critical period of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices during the spring plowing season, with the ex - factory price remaining stable. The off - season reserve is being fully released in March. Affected by the strong coal sentiment, the urea futures market is boosted, and spot transactions have improved. The supply has decreased slightly due to more temporary failures. In the demand side, the application of green - turning fertilizer in the central region is nearly over, while the spring plowing in the South China and Southwest regions is in progress. The compound fertilizer production capacity utilization rate continues to rise, with good sales of low - price orders in the early stage and some resistance to high - price markets. The melamine market sentiment is good, with rising prices, increased production capacity utilization, and rigid demand for procurement. Affected by international geopolitical conflicts, the futures market sentiment is strong, the overall spot sentiment is good, orders have increased slightly, factory inventories have decreased, and port inventories have decreased slightly. The situation in Iran has led to a sharp increase in international urea prices, but there is no new news about the domestic export quota, so the high overseas urea prices cannot be effectively transmitted to the domestic market. Future attention should be paid to export dynamics, the rhythm of off - season reserve release, and the sustainability of spot procurement sentiment [2] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - The report includes figures on Shandong urea small - particle price, Henan urea small - particle price, Henan basis, urea main contract closing price, 1 - 5 spread, 5 - 9 spread, and 9 - 1 spread, with data sources from Longzhong and Flush, and the Huatai Futures Research Institute [5][7][9][14][16] 2. Urea Production - The report shows figures on urea weekly production and urea plant maintenance loss volume, with data from Longzhong and the Huatai Futures Research Institute [5][24] 3. Urea Production Profit and Capacity Utilization - It includes figures on urea production cost, urea production profit, coal - based production capacity utilization rate, and natural gas - based production capacity utilization rate, with data from Longzhong and Flush, and the Huatai Futures Research Institute [5][22][30] 4. Urea Foreign Market Price and Export Profit - The report presents figures on urea small - particle FOB in the Baltic Sea, urea large - particle CFR in Southeast Asia, urea small - particle FOB in China, urea large - particle FOB in China, the difference between urea small - particle FOB in the Baltic Sea and China's FOB minus 30, the difference between urea large - particle CFR in Southeast Asia and China's FOB, export profit, and futures export profit, with data from Longzhong and the Huatai Futures Research Institute [5][37][42][44] 5. Urea Downstream Production Capacity Utilization and Orders - It contains figures on compound fertilizer production capacity utilization rate, melamine production capacity utilization rate, and pending order days, with data from Longzhong and the Huatai Futures Research Institute [5][51][55] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The report shows figures on factory inventory, port inventory, raw material inventory of urea downstream manufacturers in Hebei, urea warehouse receipt quantity, urea main contract holding volume, and urea main contract trading volume, with data from Longzhong and Flush, and the Huatai Futures Research Institute [5][56][58][61]
储备货源投放,价格稳定
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2026-03-17 08:22
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Range - bound oscillations [3] - Inter - period: Wait - and - see [3] - Inter - variety: None [3] 2. Core View of the Report - Urea spot ex - factory quotes have reached the March guidance price, and during the critical period of spring plowing supply guarantee and price stability in China, the urea spot price remains stable. When the urea futures price strengthens, spot traders actively enter the market to purchase, and spot transactions improve. On the supply side, some gas - based and technological transformation enterprises resume production, increasing the supply. The off - season reserves start to be fully released in March. On the demand side, the green - turning fertilizer application is in progress, the compound fertilizer production starts to pick up, and as it approaches the terminal fertilizer use, the market sentiment improves and the sales volume increases. The melamine market sentiment is good, the price rises, the production starts to pick up, and there is rigid demand for procurement. Affected by international geopolitical conflicts, the sentiment in the futures market is strong, driving the improvement of spot transaction sentiment, with factory inventories decreasing and port inventories slightly increasing. The situation in Iran has caused a sharp rise in international urea prices, but there is no new news about the current domestic export quota, so the high overseas urea prices cannot be effectively transmitted to the domestic market. Follow - up attention should be paid to export dynamics, the rhythm of off - season reserve release, and the sustainability of spot procurement sentiment [2] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Urea Basis Structure - On March 16, 2026, the closing price of the urea main contract was 1900 yuan/ton (+11); the ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Henan was 1870 yuan/ton (0); the price of small - particle urea in Shandong was 1900 yuan/ton (+0); the price of small - particle urea in Jiangsu was 1900 yuan/ton (+0); the price of small - block anthracite was 800 yuan/ton (+0); the basis in Shandong was 0 yuan/ton (-11); the basis in Henan was - 30 yuan/ton (-11); the basis in Jiangsu was 0 yuan/ton (-11) [1] 3.2 Urea Production - As of March 16, 2026, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 93.29% (0.08%), and the total inventory of sample enterprises was 95.76 million tons (-14.05), and the port sample inventory was 18.90 million tons (-0.10) [1] 3.3 Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - As of March 16, 2026, the urea production profit was 335 yuan/ton (+0) [1] 3.4 Urea Foreign Market Price and Export Profit - As of March 16, 2026, the export profit was 2331 yuan/ton (+540) [1] 3.5 Urea Downstream Operation and Orders - As of March 16, 2026, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer was 45.56% (+8.54%); the capacity utilization rate of melamine was 53.35% (+3.90%); the number of pre - received order days of urea enterprises was 8.06 days (+0.35) [1] 3.6 Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - As of March 16, 2026, the total inventory of sample enterprises was 95.76 million tons (-14.05), and the port sample inventory was 18.90 million tons (-0.10) [1]
新单成交放缓,上游待发充足
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2026-03-04 03:02
Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The new order transactions are slowing down, while the upstream has sufficient pending orders, and the price is relatively firm. - The supply has increased as some gas - based and technical - reformed enterprises have resumed production, and some off - season reserves will be put on the market in March. - After the Spring Festival, the demand for green - turning fertilizers has gradually started, the compound fertilizer production has recovered, the market sentiment has improved, and the sales volume has increased. However, some melamine plants have been temporarily shut down, and the demand is for rigid procurement. - The international urea price is strong due to the situation in Iran. There is no new news about the domestic export quota, and attention should be paid to the export dynamics, the rhythm of off - season reserve release, and the sustainability of spot procurement sentiment [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Analysis - **Price and Basis**: On March 3, 2026, the closing price of the main urea contract was 1,819 yuan/ton (+2). The ex - factory prices of small - particle urea in Henan, Shandong, and Jiangsu were 1,860 yuan/ton (0), 1,890 yuan/ton (+0), and 1,890 yuan/ton (+0) respectively. The price of small - block anthracite was 800 yuan/ton (+0). The basis in Shandong, Henan, and Jiangsu was 71 yuan/ton (-2), 41 yuan/ton (-2), and 71 yuan/ton (-2) respectively. The urea production profit was 325 yuan/ton (+0), and the export profit was 1,209 yuan/ton (-30) [1]. - **Supply**: As of March 3, 2026, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 93.16% (0.08%). The total inventory of sample enterprises was 117.60 million tons (+14.56), and the port sample inventory was 17.40 million tons (+0.80) [1]. - **Demand**: As of March 3, 2026, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 33.41% (+8.91%); the capacity utilization rate of melamine was 55.91% (-8.26%); the advance order days of urea enterprises were 7.12 days (-2.29) [1]. 3.2 Strategy - **Unilateral**: The market is expected to fluctuate, with the upside space narrowing. - **Inter - period**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude. - **Cross - variety**: No strategy provided [3].
现货价格跟随3月指导价上涨
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2026-03-03 05:19
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The spot price of urea followed the March guidance price increase. The market situation is complex with changes in supply, demand, and price indicators. The overall strategy suggests a sideways - to - bullish trend for the single - sided trading with a narrowing upside space, and a positive spread trading opportunity for UR05 - 09 on dips [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Urea Basis Structure - On March 2, 2026, the urea main contract closed at 1,817 yuan/ton (-30). The ex - factory price of small - sized urea in Henan was 1,860 yuan/ton (unchanged), in Shandong was 1,890 yuan/ton (+30), and in Jiangsu was 1,890 yuan/ton (+30). The basis in Shandong, Henan, and Jiangsu were 73 yuan/ton (+60), 43 yuan/ton (+60), and 73 yuan/ton (+60) respectively [1] II. Urea Production - As of March 2, 2026, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 93.16% (0.08%). The total inventory of sample enterprises was 117.60 million tons (+14.56), and the port sample inventory was 17.40 million tons (+0.80) [1] III. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - The urea production profit was 325 yuan/ton (+30), and the production capacity utilization rate data is as mentioned above [1] IV. Urea FOB Price and Export Profit - The export profit was 1,239 yuan/ton (+94). India's RCF issued a urea import tender on February 7, 2026, with an intention of 1.5 million tons (700,000 tons on the east coast and 800,000 tons on the west coast). The tender was opened on February 18, with a validity period until February 28 and the latest shipping date of March 31. A total of 20 suppliers submitted bids of 3.07 million tons, with the lowest east - coast bid at CFR 512 US dollars/ton and the lowest west - coast bid at CFR 508 US dollars/ton [1][2] V. Urea Down - stream Operating Rate and Orders - As of March 2, 2026, the compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate was 33.41% (+8.91%), the melamine capacity utilization rate was 55.91% (-8.26%), and the pre - received order days of urea enterprises were 7.12 days (-2.29) [1] VI. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - As mentioned before, the total inventory of sample enterprises was 117.60 million tons (+14.56), and the port sample inventory was 17.40 million tons (+0.80). The content does not mention specific information about warehouse receipts [1]
消息扰动盘面偏强,春节收单基本完成
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2026-02-13 08:14
Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating [1][2][3] Core Viewpoints - The urea market is affected by news, with the futures market showing a strong trend. The current urea guidance price remains unchanged, and manufacturers have no pressure in pre - holiday orders. It is expected that the price will remain firm before the Spring Festival [2] - In January, some gas - based and technical - reform enterprises resumed production, increasing the supply. On the demand side, agricultural demand for winter and spring fertilizers is ongoing, and manufacturers' pre - holiday orders are mostly completed. Some off - season reserve supplies will be released in February. Near the Spring Festival, the compound fertilizer production rate decreased, while the melamine production rate increased, with rigid demand for procurement. Overall, the inventory in urea factories decreased, and the port inventory increased slightly [2] - Due to the situation in Iran, the international urea price has risen. India's RCF issued a urea import tender on February 7, with an intention of 150,000 tons. The follow - up needs to focus on export dynamics, off - season reserve release rhythm, and the sustainability of spot procurement sentiment [2] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - On February 12, 2026, the closing price of the urea main contract was 1,843 yuan/ton (+46). The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Henan was 1,810 yuan/ton (0), in Shandong was 1,800 yuan/ton (+0), and in Jiangsu was 1,810 yuan/ton (+0). The basis in Shandong was - 43 yuan/ton (-46), in Henan was - 33 yuan/ton (-36), and in Jiangsu was - 33 yuan/ton (-46) [1] 2. Urea Production - As of February 12, 2026, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 90.59% (0.08%), and the total inventory of sample enterprises was 834,700 tons (-83,800 tons), while the port sample inventory was 166,000 tons (+1,000 tons) [1] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - The urea production profit was 235 yuan/ton (+0), and the export profit was 1,049 yuan/ton (+1) [1] 4. Urea Foreign Market Price and Export Profit - The report does not provide specific information on foreign market prices and export profit other than the export profit data mentioned above [1] 5. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - As of February 12, 2026, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 36.19% (-5.60%), the capacity utilization rate of melamine was 60.77% (+2.82%), and the pre - received order days of urea enterprises were 11.12 days (+2.30) [1] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The total inventory of sample enterprises was 834,700 tons (-83,800 tons), and the port sample inventory was 166,000 tons (+1,000 tons) [1] Strategies - Unilateral: Oscillation [3] - Inter - period: Go long on UR05 - 09 when the spread is low [3] - Inter - variety: None [3]
尿素日报:厂内库存节前去库-20260212
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2026-02-12 04:12
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The price of urea is expected to remain firm before the Spring Festival. The supply increased in January as some gas - based and technical - reformed enterprises resumed production. The agricultural demand for winter and green - turning fertilizers is ongoing, and the pre - orders for manufacturers during the Spring Festival are basically completed. Some off - season reserve goods will be released at a rate of 10% in February. The overall inventory of urea factories is decreasing, while the port inventory is slightly increasing. The international urea price has risen due to the situation in Iran, and India has issued a urea import tender. The export quota in China has no new news yet, and attention should be paid to export dynamics, off - season reserve release rhythm, and the sustainability of spot purchasing sentiment [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Urea Basis Structure - On February 11, 2026, the closing price of the urea main contract was 1797 yuan/ton (+12). The ex - factory prices of small - particle urea in Henan, Shandong, and Jiangsu were 1800 yuan/ton, 1800 yuan/ton, and 1810 yuan/ton respectively. The basis in Shandong, Henan, and Jiangsu was 3 yuan/ton, 3 yuan/ton, and 13 yuan/ton respectively, with a decrease of 12 yuan/ton [1] 3.2 Urea Production - As of February 11, 2026, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 89.14% (0.08%). The total inventory of sample enterprises was 83.47 tons (-8.38), and the port sample inventory was 16.50 tons (+2.10) [1] 3.3 Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - As of February 11, 2026, the urea production profit was 235 yuan/ton (+0). The capacity utilization rates of compound fertilizer and melamine were 32.46% (-9.33%) and 57.95% (-8.50%) respectively. The number of pre - order days for urea enterprises was 11.12 days (+2.30) [1] 3.4 Urea FOB Price and Export Profit - The export profit was 1048 yuan/ton (-15). The international urea price has risen due to the situation in Iran, and India's RCF issued a urea import tender on February 7, with an intention of 150 tons [1][2] 3.5 Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - As of February 11, 2026, the capacity utilization rates of compound fertilizer and melamine were 32.46% (-9.33%) and 57.95% (-8.50%) respectively. The number of pre - order days for urea enterprises was 11.12 days (+2.30) [1] 3.6 Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - As of February 11, 2026, the total inventory of sample enterprises was 83.47 tons (-8.38), and the port sample inventory was 16.50 tons (+2.10) [1] 4. Strategies - Unilateral: Oscillation - Inter - period: Go long on the spread of UR05 - 09 when it's low - Inter - variety: None [3]
尿素日报:下游刚需采购-20260203
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2026-02-03 05:41
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The urea price is in a narrow - range fluctuation. With the follow - up of agricultural demand, the pressure for pre - Spring Festival order collection is relatively small. It is expected that the price will remain firm before the Spring Festival. In January, the supply increased as some gas - based and technology - reformed enterprises resumed production. Agricultural demand for winter fertilizers and green - turning fertilizers is in continuous procurement, and manufacturers are gradually collecting Spring Festival orders. The off - season reserve procurement is in the later stage, with 10% of off - season reserve supplies expected to be released in February. The compound fertilizer production is affected by environmental protection and slightly decreased, but it remains at a moderately high level overall. The downstream terminal fertilizer demand is approaching, and the sales are improving, with an expected decline in production near the Spring Festival. The melamine plant has resumed production, with increased production and rigid demand procurement. Urea manufacturers have achieved a balance between production and sales. The overall inventory in urea plants has slightly decreased and is basically flat, while the port inventory has slightly increased. Affected by the situation in Iran, the international urea price has risen. There is no new news about the current domestic export quota, and subsequent attention should be paid to export dynamics, the rhythm of off - season reserve release, and the sustainability of spot procurement sentiment [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Urea Basis Structure - On February 2, 2026, the urea main contract closed at 1,787 yuan/ton (- 3). The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Henan was reported at 1,770 yuan/ton (0), in Shandong at 1,770 yuan/ton (- 20), and in Jiangsu at 1,800 yuan/ton (+ 0). The price of small - block anthracite was 800 yuan/ton (0). The basis in Shandong was - 17 yuan/ton (- 17), in Henan was - 17 yuan/ton (+ 3), and in Jiangsu was 13 yuan/ton (+ 3) [1] 3.2 Urea Production - As of February 2, 2026, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 88.28% (0.08%). The total inventory of sample enterprises was 94.49 million tons (- 0.11), and the port sample inventory was 14.40 million tons (+ 1.00) [1] 3.3 Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - The urea production profit was 205 yuan/ton (- 20), and the export profit was 936 yuan/ton (+ 8) [1] 3.4 Urea FOB Price and Export Profit - Not elaborated in detail in the text other than the export profit data mentioned above 3.5 Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - As of February 2, 2026, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 41.34% (- 1.62%); the capacity utilization rate of melamine was 66.45% (+ 2.80%); the pre - received order days of urea enterprises were 6.59 days (+ 0.71) [1] 3.6 Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - As of February 2, 2026, the total inventory of sample enterprises was 94.49 million tons (- 0.11), and the port sample inventory was 14.40 million tons (+ 1.00). Other details about warehouse receipts are not elaborated in the text [1] 4. Strategies - Unilateral: Narrow - range fluctuation - Inter - period: Go long on UR05 - 09 spread at low levels - Inter - variety: None [3]
尿素日报:订单有支撑-20260128
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2026-01-28 05:14
Report Industry Investment Rating - Unavailable Core Viewpoints - The price of urea spot has dropped, and the enterprise's transactions are relatively good. In January, some gas - based and technology - reformed enterprises on the supply side have resumed production, increasing the supply. On the demand side, procurement was weakened last week due to snow and rain, but has improved recently. Agricultural demand for winter and spring fertilizers is ongoing. Factories will gradually accept orders for the Spring Festival. There is also procurement for off - season storage. The operation rate of compound fertilizers has rebounded, and procurement has improved. The melamine device has resumed production, with an increase in the operation rate and rigid demand for procurement. The demand in the Northeast region has promoted inventory reduction in Inner Mongolia. Overall, the inventory in urea factories has decreased, while the port inventory has remained flat. Affected by the situation in Iran, international urea prices have risen, and India is expected to tender again. There is no new news about the current domestic export quota, and subsequent export dynamics, the rhythm of national off - season storage, and the sustainability of spot procurement sentiment should be continuously monitored [2] - The strategy for urea investment is as follows: Unilateral trading is expected to be oscillating with an upward bias; for inter - period trading, a positive spread arbitrage for UR05 - 09 should be carried out at low prices; there is no recommended strategy for cross - variety trading [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Urea Basis Structure - Relevant figures include the prices of small - particle urea in Shandong and Henan, Henan basis, the closing price of the urea main contract, 1 - 5 spread, 5 - 9 spread, and 9 - 1 spread [5][7][9][14][16] II. Urea Production - Relevant figures include weekly urea production and urea device maintenance loss [5][19] III. Urea Production Profit and Operation Rate - Relevant figures include urea production cost, urea production profit, disk production profit, urea capacity utilization rate, coal - based capacity utilization rate, and natural - gas - based capacity utilization rate [5][21][33][36] IV. Urea Foreign - Market Price and Export Profit - Relevant figures include the FOB price of small - particle urea in the Baltic Sea, the CFR price of large - particle urea in Southeast Asia, the FOB price of small - and large - particle urea in China, the difference between the FOB prices of small - particle urea in the Baltic Sea and China, the difference between the CFR price of large - particle urea in Southeast Asia and the FOB price in China, export profit, and disk export profit [5][37][42][50] V. Urea Downstream Operation and Orders - Relevant figures include the capacity utilization rates of compound fertilizers and melamine, and the number of days of pending orders [5][51][55] VI. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Relevant figures include factory inventory, port inventory, raw material inventory of downstream urea manufacturers in Hebei, the number of urea warehouse receipts, the holding volume of the urea main contract, and the trading volume of the urea main contract [5][52][57][62]