Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. The Sino - US relationship is tense, which affects the export of new US soybeans and pressures prices. The Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, demand has improved, and Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption with a planned B50 implementation in 2026. The domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral, and the import inventory is stable [2][3][4]. - The main trading ranges are expected to be 8000 - 8400 for soybean oil Y2601, 8900 - 9300 for palm oil P2601, and 9500 - 9900 for rapeseed oil OI2601 [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - **Soybean Oil** - Fundamental: The MPOB report for August showed a 9.8% MoM decrease in Malaysian palm oil production to 1.62 million tons, a 14.74% MoM decrease in exports to 1.49 million tons, and a 2.6% MoM decrease in end - of - month inventory to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral with less - than - expected production cuts. Current shipping survey data shows a 4% MoM increase in Malaysian palm oil exports this month, and palm oil supply pressure will decrease as it enters the production - reduction season [2]. - Basis: The spot price of soybean oil is 8442, with a basis of 114, indicating the spot price is at a premium to the futures price [2]. - Inventory: On September 22, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.18 million tons, a MoM increase of 20,000 tons and a YoY increase of 11.7% [2]. - Market: The futures price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward [2]. - Main Position: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract increased [2]. - **Palm Oil** - Fundamental: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report is neutral. However, palm oil will enter the production - increase season, so supply will increase [3]. - Basis: The spot price of palm oil is 9182, with a basis of 18, indicating the spot price is at a discount to the futures price [3]. - Inventory: On September 22, the port inventory of palm oil was 580,000 tons, a MoM increase of 10,000 tons and a YoY decrease of 34.1% [3]. - Market: The futures price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward [3]. - Main Position: The long positions of the main palm oil contract increased [3]. - **Rapeseed Oil** - Fundamental: Same as above for the MPOB report, and palm oil supply will increase as it enters the production - increase season [4]. - Basis: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 10151, with a basis of 317, indicating the spot price is at a premium to the futures price [4]. - Inventory: On September 22, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 560,000 tons, a MoM increase of 10,000 tons and a YoY increase of 3.2% [4]. - Market: The futures price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward [4]. - Main Position: The long positions of the main rapeseed oil contract increased [4]. 3.2 Recent利多利空Analysis - **Lido**: The US soybean stock - to - use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply, and there is a palm oil tremor season [5]. - **Negative**: The prices of oils and fats are at a relatively high historical level, domestic inventories of oils and fats are continuously increasing, the macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high [5]. - **Main Logic**: The global fundamentals of oils and fats are relatively loose [5].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views of soybean meal, palm oil, and soybean oil are all "oscillating weakly" [5][6][7]. - The market for these commodities is affected by multiple factors such as Sino - US relations, policies, production, exports, and inventories [5][6][7]. 3) Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - **Views**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating weakly; Reference view: oscillating weakly [5][6]. - **Core Logic**: Market focus is on Sino - US negotiations. The domestic market is hesitant to buy forward - delivery soybeans due to uncertain import costs. The current soybean meal market has a pattern of both weak supply and demand, with the core contradiction being the combined effect of loose supply and weak demand. Short - term futures prices will continue to oscillate [5]. - **Influencing Factors**: Sino - US relations, import arrival rhythm, oil mill operation rhythm, and inventory pressure [6]. Palm Oil (P) - **Views**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating weakly; Reference view: oscillating weakly [6][7]. - **Core Logic**: Tightening supply in Indonesia and improved export data in the first half of October support the price of Malaysian palm oil. The expected slowdown in Indian purchases and high domestic inventories in Malaysia suppress market sentiment. In China, position adjustments by funds and weekly increases in palm oil inventories also put pressure on prices. The short - term market oscillation intensifies, and futures prices are mainly oscillating weakly [7]. - **Influencing Factors**: Biodiesel properties, Malaysian palm production and exports, Indonesian exports, tariff policies of major producing countries, domestic arrival and inventory, and substitution demand [6]. Soybean Oil (Y) - **Views**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating weakly; Reference view: oscillating weakly [6]. - **Influencing Factors**: Sino - US relations, US biofuel policy, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil mill inventory [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: No clear rating indicated, operation advice is to watch temporarily [2] - Paper Pulp: No clear rating indicated, operation advice is to watch temporarily [6] - Sugar: No clear rating indicated, expected to maintain a weak trend [3] - Apple: No clear rating indicated, operation advice is to watch temporarily [4] - Logs: Operation advice is to maintain a bullish mindset [7] - Natural Rubber: One star, indicating a bullish bias but low operability on the trading floor [1] - 20 - number Rubber: One star, indicating a bullish bias but low operability on the trading floor [1] - Butadiene Rubber: One star, indicating a bullish bias but low operability on the trading floor [1] 2. Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various soft commodities including cotton, paper pulp, sugar, apple, logs, natural rubber, 20 - number rubber, and butadiene rubber, providing insights into supply, demand, inventory, and price trends, and giving corresponding investment operation suggestions [2][3][4] 3. Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton slightly declined, and traders lowered the spot basis. Xinjiang machine - picked cotton prices were stable with a slight upward trend. As of October 15th, the national new cotton picking progress was 58.8%, up 4.7 percentage points year - on - year, and the cumulative processed lint was 98.2 tons, an increase of 17.9 tons year - on - year. The peak season showed a weak performance, and new orders for pure cotton yarn mills were insufficient. Macroscopically, the market expectations were chaotic. Zhengzhou cotton's short - term rise was considered a rebound, and it was advised to watch temporarily [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar was weak. In Brazil, although the cane crushing volume and sugar yield decreased, the sugar - making ratio increased, maintaining high sugar production. In the Northern Hemisphere, India and Thailand were about to start crushing, and sugar production was expected to increase year - on - year. In China, Zhengzhou sugar was weak, and the market's focus shifted to the next season's output estimate. In Guangxi, rainfall was good after July, and the sugar production forecast for the 25/26 season was relatively good. Overall, sugar prices were expected to remain weak [3] Apple - Futures prices were strong. In Shandong, trading volume increased, and high - quality goods had high prices. In the Northwest production area, most high - quality goods had been ordered. The market was mainly trading the cold - storage inventory volume. The national apple bagging volume decreased slightly year - on - year, and due to small fruit diameters, production might be adjusted downwards. The initial cold - storage inventory in the new season might be higher than expected. It was advised to watch temporarily [4] 20 - number Rubber, Natural Rubber, and Synthetic Rubber - Today, RU, NR, and BR all fluctuated, and the futures market sentiment was mainly watchful. The domestic natural rubber spot price was stable, the synthetic rubber spot price rose, the overseas butadiene port price fell, and the Thai raw material market prices mostly declined. The global natural rubber supply entered the high - yield period. The domestic butadiene rubber plant operating rate continued to rise, while the upstream butadiene plant operating rate continued to decline. After the National Day, tire enterprises resumed production, and the domestic tire operating rate rebounded significantly. The total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao decreased to 43.75 tons, while the domestic butadiene and synthetic rubber inventories increased. The strategy was to expect a rebound after an oversold situation [5] Paper Pulp - Today, paper pulp futures rose. The spot price of coniferous pulp was stable, and the broad - leaf pulp price was also stable. As of October 16, 2025, the inventory of mainstream paper pulp ports in China was 207.4 tons, a decrease of 0.3 tons from the previous period. In September, domestic paper pulp imports increased year - on - year. The domestic port inventory was relatively high, and the supply was relatively loose. The paper pulp demand was average, and the downstream demand lacked peak - season support. Recently, the overseas broad - leaf pulp quotation continued to rise, narrowing the price difference between coniferous and broad - leaf pulp. It was advised to watch temporarily [6] Logs - Futures prices fluctuated. The mainstream spot price was stable. In October, the New Zealand radiata pine quotation increased, and the domestic spot price was weak, reducing traders' import willingness. The overseas quotation was still high, and the domestic supply was expected to remain low. The port outbound volume was above 60,000 cubic meters, and the peak - season demand supported the price. The log inventory was low, and the inventory pressure was relatively small. It was advised to maintain a bullish mindset [7]

桑顿以中美留学生的数量对比切入主题，并回顾了自己如何在课堂上激励学生深入地思考，强调在地缘政治紧张加剧的当下，沟通与理解尤为关键，世界 未来走向很大程度取决于年轻一代领导者如何应对中美关系。他表示，沟通是产生改变的桥梁，自从离开高盛集团，他一直致力于为改善中美关系贡献力 量。他以2050年全球人口结构为例，预测届时世界人口将达100亿，新增20亿主要来自非洲和中亚等发展中地区。他认为，面对全球贫富差距、气候、疾 病、恐怖主义等问题，中美作为最有实力、最具影响力的国家，应当和谐共处，共同寻求有效的解决之道。他指出，尽管世界已经发生深刻变革，但国家 间的互动模式却仍停滞不前。他期待这种改变能从每一位学生、每一位未来的领导者开始，由新一代肩负起推动全球合作与进步的责任。 活动现场 2025年10月17日，清华经管学院顾问委员会委员、红鸟资本合作伙伴董事长、亚洲协会联席理事长约翰·L·桑顿（John L. Thornton）走进清华经管课堂， 以"人才、教育和下一代全球领袖"为主题，与近百名经管学生进行交流，活动由MBA学生主持。 桑顿走进清华经管课堂 在随后的互动环节中，同学们就创新的本质和容错、领导力哲学的影响、 ...

| 《八》国投期货 | | 软商品日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年10月21日 | | 棉花 | 女女女 | 曹凯 首席分析师 | | 纸浆 | ★☆☆ | F03095462 Z0017365 | | 白糖 | ☆☆☆ | 黄维 高级分析师 | | 苹果 | ☆☆☆ | F03096483 Z0017474 | | 木材 | ★☆★ | | | 天然橡胶 | ★☆☆ | 胡华轩 高级分析师 | | 20号胶 | ★☆☆ | F0285606 Z0003096 | | 丁二烯橡胶 ★☆☆ | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | (棉花&棉纱) 今天郑棉继续上涨,贸易商下调棉花现货基差,现货成交一般。目前新棉的成本总体持稳,主流价格在6.1-6.2 元/公斤左右，较高收购价在6.2-6.3元/公斤左右,南疆价格高于北疆。截至10月15号,全国新棉采摘进度为 58.8%，同比提高4.7个百分点，累积加工皮棉98.2万吨，同比增加17.9万吨。轧花厂对于籽棉收购偏谨慎，预 计收购 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government maintains a consistent and clear stance on the Taiwan issue, asserting that Taiwan is an inseparable part of China and that the resolution of the Taiwan issue is a matter for the Chinese people alone [1] Group 1: Taiwan Issue - The Chinese government expresses its commitment to peaceful reunification regarding Taiwan, while firmly opposing any attempts to separate Taiwan from China by any individual or force [1] - The Chinese government emphasizes that the Taiwan issue is purely an internal matter of China [1] Group 2: Diplomatic Relations - The Chinese government highlights the irreplaceable strategic role of summit diplomacy in guiding China-U.S. relations [1] - There is a mention of close communication and interaction between the leaders of China and the United States [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights President Trump's confidence in his relationship with Chinese leaders and his planned visit to China in early next year [1] - The Chinese Foreign Ministry reiterated its firm stance on the Taiwan issue, emphasizing that Taiwan is an inseparable part of China and that the resolution of the Taiwan issue is a matter for the Chinese people [1] - The Foreign Ministry also stressed the importance of high-level diplomatic communication between the leaders of China and the United States, indicating that such diplomacy plays an irreplaceable strategic role in Sino-U.S. relations [1] Group 2 - In response to Trump's threat to cut off aircraft parts supply to China, the Foreign Ministry stated that both sides should resolve trade issues through equal, respectful, and mutually beneficial negotiations, as trade wars do not serve the interests of either party [3]

10月21日11：06，国内现货黄金Au9999涨1.86%，报992.41元/克，国际现货伦敦金现跌0.20%，报 4346.31美元/盎司。 近期黄金市场的表现可谓一枝独秀，价格持续上涨的背后究竟有何逻辑？未来这种上涨态势能否延续？ 两大因素共同推动黄金价格的持续上涨！ 同时，也特别提醒投资者，未来金价的上涨路径可能会与过去有所不同。随着国际关系的动态变化，金 价很可能呈现"波浪式前进"的特征，在上涨过程中会出现较大的波动。中美关系的紧张与缓和将成为影 响金价短期走势的重要变量。 对于投资者该如何操作？ 对于普通投资者而言，我建议采取中长期的投资视角，避免过度关注短期价格波动。黄金在资产配置中 仍然具有重要价值，但需要根据个人风险承受能力合理配置比例。在低利率和地缘政治不确定性并存的 宏观环境下，黄金的配置价值值得重视，但也要对市场波动保持理性预期。 国际金价处于上涨大周期，建议黄金把作为重要资产配置部分去考虑，避免频繁交易。 过去一年黄金价格的强劲表现主要得益于两大因素的共同推动。一方面，美联储开启降息周期导致市场 利率持续走低，这使得不产生利息的黄金资产相对吸引力大幅提升。另一方面，中美关系出现的新变 ...

FICC日报 | 2025-10-21 中美关系风险缓释，股指反弹 市场分析 中美将谈判。宏观方面，二十届四中全会10月20日上午在北京开始举行，中央委员会总书记习近平代表中央政治 局向全会作工作报告，并就《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议（讨论稿）》向全会 作了说明。经济数据方面，国家统计局发布数据，前三季度我国GDP同比增长5.2%，其中，一季度增长5.4%，二 季度增长5.2%，三季度增长4.8%。9月份，规模以上工业增加值同比增长6.5%，社会消费品零售总额增长3%。前 三季度，全国固定资产投资同比下降0.5%，扣除房地产开发投资后增长3%；居民人均可支配收入32509元，扣除 价格因素实际增长5.2%。中美关系方面，特朗普表示，美方将稀土、芬太尼和大豆列为将对中方提出的三大问题。 指数收红。现货市场，A股三大指数冲高回落，沪指涨0.63%收于3863.89点，创业板指涨1.98%。行业方面，板块 指数涨多跌少，通信、煤炭、电力设备、机械设备行业领涨，有色金属、农林牧渔、美容护理行业跌幅居前。当 日沪深两市成交金额降至1.7万亿元。海外方面，美国三大股指全线收涨，纳指涨1.37 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is "oscillating", specifically "oscillating weakly" [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The EC of the container shipping index shows a pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness due to factors such as the Gaza peace talks and the deterioration of Sino - US relations. The spot freight rate has a mixed impact, with price increases planned but also uncertainties. Political and economic factors are complex, including the progress of the Gaza cease - fire agreement, potential tariff adjustments, and diplomatic meetings. The supply of shipping capacity is neutral, with changes in weekly average capacity deployment in different months and overall loading rates lower than in previous years. The demand is also neutral, with a differentiation in loading rates among shipping alliances. The first round of price support in late October has initially stopped the decline, and the market has entered the second round in early November, with more price - support attempts in the next two months. However, future trends still depend on changes in Sino - US relations, end - of - month loading conditions, and the situation of empty sailings in November [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Influencing Factors and Their Impacts** - **Spot Freight Rate**: It has both positive and negative impacts. In late October, the overall price increase was expected to be between 1800 - 2000, but finally landed at 1500 - 1800, and the price increase notice for November is around 2500 [3] - **Political and Economic Factors**: There are many uncertainties. For example, the implementation of the Gaza cease - fire agreement has core issues to be resolved, Egypt has suffered shipping losses due to Houthi attacks, the US may adjust tariffs, and there are diplomatic meetings to prevent the escalation of the Sino - US tariff war [3] - **Shipping Capacity Supply**: It is neutral. The weekly average capacity deployment in September was 305,000, 250,000 in October, 280,000 in November, and 290,000 in December. The overall loading rate is lower than in previous years [3] - **Demand**: It is neutral. There is a differentiation in loading rates among alliances. PA + MSC has a relatively low loading rate and a higher probability of price cuts, while GEMINI's loading rate is gradually increasing at low prices [3] - **Investment View**: Oscillating weakly [3] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, it is oscillating; for arbitrage, it is on hold. Risks to focus on include geopolitical disturbances and domestic and foreign macro - policy disturbances [3] 3.2 Price - **Spot Market**: There are data charts showing the trends of European line index, US West line index, US East line index, and Mediterranean line index, as well as the spot quotes of Maersk's European line [6][7][8][9][11] 3.3 Static Shipping Capacity - **Order Volume**: There are data charts showing the order volume and new - order volume of container ships with different loading capacities over the years [14] - **Delivery Volume**: There are data charts showing the delivery volume of container ships with different loading capacities over the years [17][19] - **Demolition Volume**: There are data charts showing the demolition volume of container ships with different loading capacities over the years [18][20] - **Future Delivery**: There are data charts showing the future delivery volume of container ships with different loading capacities in different time periods [23][25][26] - **Ship - Breaking Price**: There are data charts showing the ship - breaking prices of container ships with different loading capacities and the new - building price index and its year - on - year change [30] - **New - Building Ship Price**: There are data charts showing the new - building price index and the new - building prices of container ships with different loading capacities [30][32] - **Second - Hand Ship Price**: There are data charts showing the second - hand ship price index and the second - hand prices of container ships with different loading capacities and ages [36][38][40][42] - **Existing Shipping Capacity of Container Ships** - There are data charts showing the total existing shipping capacity, the existing shipping capacity by loading capacity, the existing shipping capacity of ships over 25 years old, the proportion of idle and retrofitted ships, the average age, and the average age by loading capacity [45][46][48][49][52][54] 3.4 Dynamic Shipping Capacity - **Shipping Schedule (Shanghai - European Base Ports)** - There are data charts showing the total shipping capacity deployment from Shanghai to European base ports, the shipping capacity deployment of PA + MSC, GEMINI, MSC, and OCEAN in different weeks [60][62][64][66][68] - **Container Ships with Desulfurization Towers** - There are data charts showing the number and proportion of container ships with installed desulfurization towers, the number and proportion of container ships being installed with desulfurization towers, the average age and duration of retrofitting desulfurization towers, and the average speed of container ships [71][74][75][77] - **Idle Shipping Capacity** - There are data charts showing the idle shipping capacity of container ships in terms of TEU, number of ships, and proportion, the idle shipping capacity by loading capacity, the hot - idle shipping capacity, and the shipping capacity of ships being retrofitted with desulfurization towers [79][80]