美国自身的铜消耗量其实非常有限。按照正常的商业逻辑，库存维持在一个合理的周转水平就够了。但 今年的数据显示，美国囤积的铜库存量竟然占到了全球的近半数。这不是正常的做生意，这完全是一种 战略层面的恐慌性备货。欧洲那边也不遑多让，正忙着满世界抢购铝材。 编辑：[微风] 这背后到底发生了什么？这就要说到最近另一个让人瞩目的信号：2025年12月25日离岸人民币兑美元升 破7.0关口。 最近在国际金融和大宗商品市场上，发生了一件极其诡异甚至有些"反常识"的事情。如果你细心观察过 伦敦金属交易所或者纽约商品交易所的数据，会发现美国这边的铜库存出现了一种恐慌性的囤积现象。 很多人看新闻，第一反应是高兴，觉得这是国力的体现。也有人担心，觉得这会让出口生意变得难做。 但如果我们将美国囤铜的怪象与人民币升值这两件事放在一起来看，就会发现这根本不是简单的市场供 需波动，而是一场惊心动魄的全球定价权争夺战。 这也是为什么说，千万别用过去那种"汇率跌了利于出口、涨了利于进口"的教科书思维来理解当下的局 势。我们正在经历的，是一场精心布局的顶级阳谋。 过去几十年，全球化的分工其实特别简单粗暴。西方国家，特别是美国，占据了金字塔顶端。他 ...

你可能不知道，美国现在每天一睁眼，就要为超过100亿美元的债务支付利息。 这不是危言耸听，截至2025年12月，悬挂在美国头顶的联邦债务总额，已经 突破了38万亿美元。 这个数字相当于美国全年经济总量的130%，也就是说，整个国家干一年半的活，才能还清欠下的债。 更吓人的是利息。 2025年，美国政府需要支付的国债利息就超过了1.2万亿美元。 这笔钱是什么概念？ 它比美国一年的军费开支还要多，相当于其联邦财政 收入的三分之一。 如果利率维持在高位，预计不出三年，仅利息支出一项就会突破2万亿美元。 到那时，美国政府可能连利息都还不起，更别提投资基建、 发展科技了。 这就是为什么从2024年9月开始，美联储一改过去四年多的沉默，变得"急不可耐"。 它连续启动降息，到了2025年，在特朗普总统的不断催促下，又追加了 三次降息。 累计175个基点的降幅，看起来像是新一轮的"经济大放水"。 但真相恰恰相反。 美联储这次降息，主要目的已经不是刺激企业投资和居民消费，而是为了给美国财政本身"续命"。 降低利率，意味着新发债券的成本和 存量债务的利息压力会暂时减轻。 美联储主席私下里清楚，通胀的隐患并没有完全消除，此时降息等 ...

Core Viewpoint - The offshore RMB has surpassed the 7.0 mark against the USD for the first time in 2024, reaching a high of 6.9985, while the onshore RMB also broke the 7.01 threshold, marking a new high since September 27, 2024 [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The 7.0 level is a significant "watershed" for the RMB exchange rate, causing market participants to hold their breath as it approaches [2]. - The short-term probability of the RMB breaking 7 is high, but sustaining below this level in the long term faces multiple uncertainties [3]. - The recent RMB appreciation is attributed to a combination of factors that have been building up over time [4]. Group 2: External Influences - The weakening of the USD index has created favorable external conditions, with the Federal Reserve entering a rate-cutting cycle since September, reducing rates by a total of 75 basis points this year [5][8]. - The expectation of continued rate cuts by the Federal Reserve has led to a significant drop in the USD index, facilitating the appreciation of the RMB and other non-USD currencies [8]. Group 3: Domestic Factors - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has adopted a relaxed stance towards the RMB's appreciation, allowing the currency to strengthen without intervention, as indicated by the adjustment of the counter-cyclical factor to a positive value [9][11]. - Year-end corporate foreign exchange settlements have contributed to the RMB's appreciation, as companies convert their foreign earnings into RMB [12][13]. Group 4: Economic Context - The current RMB appreciation reflects a broader struggle for "pricing power" and "game rules" in the global market, with the U.S. attempting to reverse its industrial hollowing through protectionist measures [16][17]. - China's response has been to avoid excessive competition and allow the RMB to appreciate, thereby shifting costs to Western economies [18][21]. - The recent trade surplus exceeding $1 trillion for the first 11 months of the year indicates China's strong export performance amid these dynamics [18]. Group 5: Strategic Implications - The current RMB appreciation is seen as a strategic move by the state to prepare for manufacturing upgrades, although there may be measures to control rapid appreciation in the short term [21][22].

最近，你有没有注意到，美国在喊打喊杀时，总是显得特别激动，可一提到石油问题，态度却变得有些奇怪，完全不像以往那么强硬？这件事真的是让人好 奇。 前几天，我看新闻时，本来只是想了解一下美国最近又有什么新动作，结果看到了一段马可·卢比奥的采访，直接把我惊得愣住了好几秒，差点以为自己看 错了频道。卢比奥可是平时对中国态度非常强硬的鹰派人物，甚至连空气都想要制裁，结果在这段采访中，他居然开始解释为什么不能制裁中国购买俄罗斯 石油，这可真是让人大跌眼镜。看到这一幕，我也忍不住想分享一下自己的想法，实在是太有意思了。 让我们先理理事情的来龙去脉。2025年8月17日，卢比奥上了福克斯商业频道的《周日早间期货》节目，主持人玛丽亚·巴蒂罗莫问他是否考虑对那些还在购 买俄罗斯原油的国家，特别是中国，采取一些额外的措施。按照常理，卢比奥应该趁机放几句狠话，直接加码制裁。但没想到，他却突然开始算起了经济 账。 这件事反映出美国在能源问题上的两难局面。美国想出手干预，却又害怕油价上涨；不出手，又觉得面子上不好看。卢比奥的这番话，其实是变相承认了中 国在全球能源市场中的重要地位。你不可能把一个全球最大的原油进口国单独制裁，而不让全球经 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent signing of the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) by President Trump has formalized and expanded restrictions on U.S. investments in advanced technology sectors in China, indicating a bipartisan consensus in the U.S. government to prevent capital flow into these areas [1][4]. Summary by Sections Existing Restricted Areas - The NDAA reinforces previous restrictions on core areas such as semiconductors (chips), quantum information technology (quantum computing and communication), and artificial intelligence (AI technologies applicable to military and surveillance) [2]. Newly Added Restricted Areas - The act expands the scope of restrictions to include drone technology, specifically targeting companies like DJI and Daotong Intelligent, prohibiting the U.S. Department of Defense from purchasing their products and requiring supply chain risk assessments [2]. - Other newly restricted areas include lidar technology, biotechnology, quantum information science, hypersonic technology, autonomous robotics, and network technology, all aimed at slowing down China's industrial development [2]. Investment Exceptions - Not all investments are restricted; exceptions include index funds, publicly traded stocks, and passive investments that do not involve active participation in company operations. Additionally, previously completed compliant investments are not subject to retroactive withdrawal [2]. Regulatory Framework - A strict regulatory framework has been established, requiring U.S. entities to report sensitive investments in China to the Treasury Department for security review. Violations may result in fines and mandatory divestment [3]. - This regulation applies not only to domestic entities but also to U.S. companies' overseas branches, with multiple government departments collaborating to monitor compliance [3]. Implications for U.S.-China Relations - The NDAA marks a shift to a "hard constraint" phase in U.S.-China technological competition, making it more challenging for capital flows between the two nations and potentially disrupting global technology investment order and supply chain dynamics [4].

凛冬将至，欧洲大陆却早已笼罩在一片愁云惨雾之中。若你此刻漫步于欧洲街头，随意向路人问起近况，恐怕十之八九会听到他们无奈的叹息。能源账单如 同脱缰的野马，价格飞涨令人咋舌；超市货架上，诸多常见食材赫然贴着"限购"标签，令人忧心忡忡；就连向来坚挺的欧元，汇率也跌至谷底，引发民众的 阵阵恐慌。雪上加霜的是，大西洋彼岸的美国还在暗中作梗，一会儿高喊着"欧洲必须承担更多军费"，一会儿又将高价液化天然气源源不断地输往欧洲，摆 明了要让欧洲当这个"冤大头"。 正当整个欧洲如同无头苍蝇般四处碰壁之际，一个沉寂了两年多的声音，如同穿透迷雾的钟声般，骤然响起——那是卸任已近三年的德国前总理，安格拉· 默克尔，她终于打破了沉默。 或许有人会质疑，一位退休之人为何还要插手这些纷繁复杂的事务？但了解欧洲局势的人都心知肚明，默克尔的表态绝非一时兴起。在她执政的十六年间， 欧洲曾经历过欧债危机、难民潮等诸多挑战，而她凭借着卓越的领导力，硬生生地将风雨飘摇的欧盟凝聚在一起，被欧洲民众私下誉为"定海神针"。此次她 选择挺身而出，正是因为欧洲正面临着前所未有的"生死存亡"的紧要关头。表面上看，这场危机源于俄乌冲突，但究其根本，是欧洲将自身的命运 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is the release of the "2025 Development Report on Chinese Enterprises in Italy" by the Italian Chinese Chamber of Commerce, highlighting the growth and challenges faced by Chinese enterprises in Italy [1][2] - The report indicates that Chinese enterprises in Italy have expanded their investments across 36 major industries, focusing on high value-added and sustainable development sectors such as high-end manufacturing, new energy, life sciences, and cross-border e-commerce [2][3] - Currently, there are 604 Chinese-invested enterprises in Italy, providing over 30,000 jobs and generating more than 24 billion euros in revenue [2] Group 2 - The Italian government aims to play a strategic role in the new investment landscape between China and Europe, offering stable and professional policy support to investors, including Chinese enterprises [3] - The Lombardy region is committed to maintaining high-level dialogue with the Chinese market to promote growth, employment, and innovation, while supporting local businesses in expanding exports to China [3][8] - The report emphasizes the importance of dialogue and cooperation between China and Italy to eliminate trade barriers and establish a more orderly global supply chain [2]

Group 1 - The article discusses the challenges of achieving a 10% annual return on investments, particularly in the context of low bank interest rates and the performance of bank ETFs [1] - It highlights the historical performance of various sectors in Japan from 1991 to 2020, noting that healthcare, information technology, and consumer sectors performed the best, while financial and telecommunications sectors lagged [3] - The article suggests that the current market conditions favor large-cap stocks, but there is potential in small-cap stocks as well, with specific mention of companies like Huahong Semiconductor [8] Group 2 - The article mentions the potential benefits of investing in dollar-denominated bond funds, especially with the anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [9] - It emphasizes the importance of specific stock selections, indicating that many popular recommendations may not yield the best returns [5] - The article also references the long-term performance of Midea Group, suggesting an annualized return of 9% [4]

Group 1 - The meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and French President Emmanuel Macron emphasizes the importance of bilateral relations and cooperation in various fields, including green economy, digital economy, and artificial intelligence [9][10][12] - Both leaders highlighted the need for multilateralism and a fair international order, addressing global challenges such as economic imbalance and the need for reform in global governance [11][12] - The discussions included the signing of multiple cooperation agreements in sectors like nuclear energy, agriculture, education, and environmental protection, showcasing a commitment to deepen strategic partnerships [14] Group 2 - Macron expressed France's commitment to the One China policy and the importance of maintaining a close relationship with China, indicating a willingness to enhance mutual investment and cooperation in renewable energy [12][13] - The leaders discussed the Ukraine crisis, with Xi stating China's support for peaceful resolutions and the importance of a balanced European security framework [13] - The meeting reflects a shared vision for promoting global peace and prosperity through collaborative efforts in addressing climate change and biodiversity [13]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of China and France as independent major powers that should promote multilateralism and global cooperation, especially in the context of current global challenges [2][3][4] - Both countries are encouraged to deepen cooperation in traditional sectors like aviation, aerospace, and nuclear energy, while also exploring potential in green economy, digital economy, biomedicine, artificial intelligence, and new energy [3][4] - The leaders discussed the need for a balanced global governance system and the importance of addressing issues like the North-South development imbalance and the underrepresentation of developing countries in international financial institutions [4][6] Group 2 - Macron expressed France's commitment to maintaining close high-level exchanges with China, emphasizing mutual trust and respect, and the importance of a fair business environment for Chinese companies in France [6][10] - The two leaders agreed on the significance of cooperation in addressing global challenges such as climate change, biodiversity protection, and governance of artificial intelligence [6][10] - They also exchanged views on the Ukraine crisis, with China supporting efforts conducive to peace and advocating for a balanced and sustainable European security framework [6][10]