热轧卷板产业链日报 2025/6/19 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任 自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任 何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引 用、删节和修改。 研究员: 蔡跃辉 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 免责声明 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | HC 主力合约收盘价(元/吨) | 3,103 | +1↑ HC 主力合约持仓量(手) | 1488632 | -13154↓ | | | HC 合约前20名净持仓(手) | 90,064 | -8938↓ HC10-1合约价差(元/吨) | 5 | +3↑ | | | HC 上期所仓单日报(日，吨 ...

Group 1 - Report industry investment rating: Not provided Group 2 - Core view of the report: Still treat it as a short - selling opportunity on rebounds [3] Group 3 - Key points from the logic part: This week, the average含税 cost of steel billets for mainstream sample steel mills in Tangshan was 2,810 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 22 yuan/ton. Compared with the ex - factory price of common square billets of 2,910 yuan/ton on June 18th, the average profit of steel mills was 100 yuan/ton. 162 billion yuan of the 300 billion yuan consumer goods trade - in support funds have been allocated, and the remaining funds will be allocated in an orderly manner. As of June 18th, the incremental steel billet supply in the East China region in June was about 470,000 tons, with export orders accounting for 36.4%. The increase in steel billet supply was mainly due to the narrowing profit of rebar and more rolling line overhauls. The finished products continued the previous trend, trading in a narrow range at a low level with light market sentiment. Downstream demand has seasonally weakened and is unlikely to improve in the short term, while high -开工 and high - output still persist. The current finished product fundamentals are characterized by strong supply and weak demand [2] Group 4 - Suggestion: It is still recommended to try short - selling on rebounds [2][3] Group 5 - Later concerns: Macroeconomic policies; downstream demand situation [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article addresses the ongoing discussions regarding the temporary unavailability of the "national subsidy" (国补) for the old-for-new consumption policy in certain regions, clarifying that there is no cancellation of the subsidy and that the program continues to operate effectively across most provinces [4][5][6]. Group 1: Current Status of National Subsidy - Discussions on the temporary unavailability of "national subsidy" in regions like Chongqing, Jiangsu, and Hubei have gained attention on social media [2][3]. - Official responses from Jiangsu and Chongqing confirm that the "national subsidy" policy has not been suspended, with Jiangsu clarifying that the subsidy operates under a limit management system [4][5]. - Hubei's subsidy program is confirmed to run throughout 2025, with daily limited issuance of qualification vouchers for certain products [5]. Group 2: Implementation and Funding - The "old-for-new" consumption policy is a significant initiative at the national level, with local governments having some autonomy in its implementation details [6]. - The total funding for the subsidy has doubled from 150 billion yuan last year to 300 billion yuan this year, with funds allocated based on various regional factors [8][9]. - As of May 31, 2025, the five major categories of the "old-for-new" program have generated sales of 1.1 trillion yuan, with approximately 175 million subsidies issued to consumers [13]. Group 3: Impact and Future Outlook - The policy has been effective in stimulating consumption and upgrading product structures, with significant sales figures reported in various provinces [12][13]. - Experts suggest that with ongoing funding and policy optimization, the "old-for-new" program is expected to continue benefiting consumers and driving economic activity [12][13].

Group 1 - The drama "The Lychee of Chang'an" has attracted over 30 brands for advertising, including major names like Tmall, Budweiser, and Longan Auto [1][2] - Various products have been launched in collaboration with the drama, such as the "Guifei-style" lychee from Baiguoyuan and several co-branded items from Luckin Coffee [1] - The enthusiasm for "The Lychee of Chang'an" is evident in the oversaturation of advertising from infant formula brands and dairy products [1] Group 2 - As of June 17, "The Lychee of Chang'an" ranked second in the drama ratings, behind "Lingjiang Xian" [4][5] - Tencent Video has played a crucial role in the success of "The Lychee of Chang'an," leveraging its ecosystem to create a mature business model that integrates the entire industry chain [6] Group 3 - The average price of pork in China's wholesale markets remained stable at 20.24 yuan per kilogram as of June 18 [14] - During the "618" shopping festival, the price of Feitian Moutai dropped below 2000 yuan, with the lowest price recorded at 1840 yuan on Pinduoduo [15]

Core Insights - The "National Subsidy" program for consumer goods replacement is facing challenges, with reports of exhausted quotas leading to speculation about an early end to the program [1] - The government has allocated a total of 3,000 billion yuan in special long-term bonds to support the consumer goods replacement initiative, with 1,620 billion yuan already distributed to local governments [1][2] Group 1: Policy and Financial Support - The central government has issued 1,620 billion yuan in funding for the first and second quarters, with an additional 1,380 billion yuan planned for the third and fourth quarters [1] - The consumer goods replacement policy has significantly boosted sales, with 11 trillion yuan in sales generated by five major categories of consumer goods by May 31, 2025 [2] - Local governments are actively promoting the replacement initiative, with cities like Shenzhen and Fujian implementing specific plans to enhance consumer spending through subsidies [3] Group 2: Consumer Impact and Market Performance - As of May 31, 2025, the program has issued approximately 175 million direct subsidies to consumers, with notable participation in the automotive sector, where 4.12 million applications for vehicle replacements were recorded [2] - Retail sales in May reached 36,748 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 6.5%, the highest level recorded in the year [2] - The policy has led to substantial growth in retail sales across various categories, including home appliances and communication devices, with increases of 53.0% and 33.0% respectively [2]

事实上，"限额管理"并非临时举措。早在1月18日，省发展改革委、省财政厅发布了《关于2025年加力 扩围实施大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新政策的通知》，就明确提出"消费品以旧换新资金实行限额 管理、资格调控"。 6月9日，有江苏消费者登录京东APP平台，查看补贴资格领取和使用流程，在江苏家电国家补贴专区， 页面提示"因活动升级，家电品类国补资格暂时停止领取"。同样，淘宝"国补"专区也显示，"江苏国补 升级中，升级期间您将无法领取/使用国补优惠，后续开通时间另行通知"。在线下门店，也有消费者遇 到无法立刻领取补贴的情况。这让满心期待享受优惠的消费者困惑不已。 今年以来，消费市场持续升温，江苏家电及3C以旧换新活动热度爆表。数据显示，今年1—5月，我省 家电及3C累计销售1826万件，使用补贴资金74.32亿元，拉动销售额455.5亿元，各项数据均居全国第 一。如何在保证消费热度的同时，有效确保补贴的持续性？江苏通过对补贴资金的"限额管理"，阶段性 发放补贴，精准控制资金消耗速度。这样一来，既减轻地方政府审计核销的压力，又降低了资金使用的 风险。业内人士建议，未来可以进一步深化政企合作，鼓励参与活动的经营主体追加 ...

"换新E贷"主要针对武汉市匹配政府家电消费品以旧换新政策的小微企业，依托财务系统数据等作为授 信依据，为企业提供线上融资业务。方案获批后，工行武汉分行细化操作步骤，加强业务培训，严格风 控措施，优化审批流程，各部门通力协作，开启"加速度"模式。了解到某销售电子行业经销商在江汉路 等重点商圈有多家门店，在电商冲击下仍能保持年2000万元的销售额。自国补政策推行以来，企业销售 额增加了30%，企业垫款也逐渐增加，因账期问题急需银行融资。自贸分行立即为企业推荐"换新E 贷"产品，从客户资料收集、尽职调查到贷款审批、合同签订，各环节紧密衔接、高效推进，仅用5个工 作日便成功实现湖北工行首笔"换新E贷"放款，解决了企业融资需求，赢得客户的高度赞誉。 工行武汉分行将继续做好金融支持消费品以旧换新工作，通过信贷支持、支付优惠等持续优化金融产品 供给和服务支持，不断激发消费市场活力，更好地满足居民消费需求。（周学之 里安琪） 编辑：赵鼎 转自：新华财经 5月末，中国工商银行武汉分行成功发放工行湖北省首笔"换新E贷"50万元，助力激发消费活力，为家电 企业释放动能。 今年以来，随着国家对消费品以旧换新系列政策的加力扩围，消费者 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant recovery in China's consumer market in May 2024, driven by government subsidies and promotional events, leading to the highest growth rates in retail sales and dining revenue since the beginning of the year [1][3]. Group 1: Consumer Market Performance - In May 2024, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 41,326 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.4%, marking the highest growth rate of the year [1]. - The retail sales of goods amounted to 36,748 billion yuan, growing by 6.5%, while dining revenue was 4,578 billion yuan, increasing by 5.9% [1]. - The positive trends in both goods and dining consumption were attributed to the effects of government subsidies and holiday consumption during the "May Day" and "Dragon Boat Festival" [1][7]. Group 2: Impact of Government Subsidies - The high growth rate in May's retail sales was primarily driven by government subsidies and e-commerce promotions, with significant increases in basic and upgraded goods [3]. - Sales of staple food, jewelry, and sports entertainment products saw growth rates of 14.6%, 21.8%, and 28.3%, respectively [3]. - The "old-for-new" policy has been effective, with retail sales of home appliances and communication equipment increasing by 53.0% and 33.0%, respectively [4]. Group 3: E-commerce and Online Sales - The "6.18" online shopping festival, which began on May 13, significantly boosted online retail sales, with a year-on-year growth of 6.3% from January to May [5]. - The integration of government subsidies and promotional discounts was a key strategy for e-commerce platforms to attract consumers [5]. Group 4: Dining Consumption Trends - Dining revenue, accounting for about 11% of total retail sales, achieved a 5.9% year-on-year growth in May, the highest monthly growth in a year [7]. - The dining market is experiencing intense competition, with a shift towards family dining and high-cost performance restaurants as business dining declines [8]. - The number of domestic tourists increased by 6.4% during the "May Day" holiday, contributing to the growth in dining consumption [8][9]. Group 5: Tourism and Inbound Travel - The increase in inbound tourism, particularly with the expansion of visa-free entry policies, has positively impacted the consumer market [9]. - The number of inbound tourists utilizing visa-free policies grew by over 70% during the "May Day" holiday, leading to a significant rise in dining and retail transactions [9].

Group 1: Policy Changes and Funding - The 2025 "old-for-new" policy has significantly increased funding support to 300 billion yuan, up from 150 billion yuan in 2024[24] - The subsidy scope has expanded to include more products, such as microwaves, water purifiers, dishwashers, rice cookers, and mobile devices[24] - As of the end of May, 162 billion yuan of central government subsidies have been allocated, with 138 billion yuan still pending distribution[7] Group 2: Market Impact and Performance - In April, retail sales of consumer goods grew by 5.1% year-on-year, with significant disparities in growth rates among categories[5] - Home appliance sales surged by 38.8% year-on-year in April, while automotive and communication equipment sales saw declines[39] - By the end of May, nationwide sales under the "old-for-new" program reached 1.1 trillion yuan, with approximately 175 million subsidies issued[33] Group 3: Regional Variations and Challenges - Some regions, like Chongqing, reported a subsidy redemption rate of 82.3%, leading to a suspension of certain subsidy programs due to fund exhaustion[33] - Local governments are adjusting subsidy mechanisms, with some areas implementing phased funding releases to manage demand[61] - The rapid use of subsidies in various regions has raised concerns about potential fraud and the need for improved monitoring mechanisms[65]

北京大学经济学院教授苏剑告诉21世纪经济报道记者，5月份的消费增速数据比较高，是今年以来的消费增速最高水平，是好现 象。另外，从5月份的商品消费数据来看，拉动消费增长的政策效应明显，和国补相关的品类都得到了很好的两位数增长。国补 叠加大促激发消费 5月份商品零售额6.5%的高增速，主要得益于国补和电商年中大促的拉动。 国家统计局数据显示，基本生活类和部分升级类商品销售增势较好，限额以上单位粮油食品类、金银珠宝类、体育娱乐用品类 商品零售额分别增长14.6%、21.8%、28.3%。消费品以旧换新政策持续显效，限额以上单位家用电器和音像器材类、通讯器材 类、文化办公用品类、家具类商品零售额分别增长53.0%、33.0%、30.5%、25.6%。 5月份商品零售额6.5%的高增速，主要得益于国补和电商年中大促的拉动。 6月16日，国家统计局发布5月份经济数据。其中，5月份，社会消费品零售总额41326亿元，同比增长6.4%，达到2024年以来的 最高增速。按消费类型分，5月份，商品零售额36748亿元，同比增长6.5%，是2024年以来的最高增速；餐饮收入4578亿元，增 长5.9%，是2024年4月以来的最高增 ...