分析师：郑婷 登记编码：S0730524110001 zhengting@ccnew.com 投资要点： 第1页 / 共12页 河南研究：经济数据跟踪（2025 年 10 月） 电话： 0371-65585629 地址： 郑州郑东新区商务外环路10号18楼 地址： 上海浦东新区世纪大道 1788 号 T1 座 22 楼 全国经济运行情况：2025 年 10 月份，全国规模以上工业增加值同 比增长 4.9%，社会消费品零售总额同比增长 2.9%，全国固定资产 投资（不含农户）累计同比下降 1.7%，房地产开发投资累计同比 下降 14.7%。总体来看，10 月份"反内卷"治理成效有所显现，高 技术制造业发展支撑经济韧性，但同时主要经济指标均有回落，内 需不足问题持续显现。往后看，主要经济指标回暖仍受到政策效应 退坡、前期需求透支、地产深度调整等系列因素阻力，但财政已通 过提前下达专项资金的方式进行托举，11 月人民日报文章《保持财 政政策取向不变力度不减》也指出"我国财政资源和举债空间仍然 充裕"。因此，预期四季度经济整体仍较具韧性。 河南省经济运行情况：2025 年 10 月份，河南省规模以上工业增加 值同比增 ...

Economic Growth - China's economic growth momentum has slowed down in October, with both supply and demand sides experiencing a decline in growth rates [1][4] - The 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session emphasized the need to "resolutely achieve the annual economic and social development goals," focusing on stabilizing macroeconomic operations for the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year [1][13] Supply Side - Industrial production has significantly declined, with the industrial added value of large-scale enterprises growing by 4.9% year-on-year in October, a decrease of 1.6 percentage points from September [3][4] - The decline in industrial added value is attributed to the impact of holidays and the tapering effects of "export rush" and "two new" policies (large-scale equipment updates and consumption upgrades) [4] - Notably, the added value of equipment manufacturing grew by 8.0% year-on-year, and high-tech manufacturing increased by 7.2%, indicating strong support from large-scale equipment updates and domestic manufacturing transformation [4] Service Sector - The service production index grew by 4.6% year-on-year in October, a decrease of 1.0 percentage point from the previous month [6] - Specific sectors such as information transmission, software, and IT services saw growth rates of 13.0% and 8.2%, respectively, while the financial sector's growth rate fell from 8.7% to 5.6% [6] Demand Side - Social retail sales increased by 2.9% year-on-year in October, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [6][8] - Exports in dollar terms decreased by 1.1% year-on-year, contrasting with an 8.3% increase in the previous month [6][8] - Consumer behavior remains cautious, with a significant reduction in household loans, indicating weak willingness to leverage [8] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment saw a year-on-year decline of 1.7% from January to October, with the drop widening by 1.2 percentage points compared to the first nine months [9][11] - Manufacturing investment grew by 2.7%, down 1.3 percentage points from the previous period, while real estate investment fell by 14.7%, with the decline accelerating [11][12] - The decline in manufacturing investment is influenced by external environment fluctuations and high base effects from last year's equipment updates [12] Policy Response - Analysts suggest that the current uncertainties in exports and consumption necessitate increased macro policy support for investment [13] - The National Development and Reform Commission announced the full deployment of 500 billion yuan in new policy financial tools and an additional 500 billion yuan from local debt limits to support infrastructure [13][14] - Expectations are set for further fiscal policies to boost consumption and potential new rounds of interest rate cuts, given the low government debt ratio and current low domestic prices [13][14]

推动大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新，是党中央、国务院着眼于我国高质量发展大局作出的重大决策 部署。中国石油天然气集团有限公司（以下简称"中国石油"）作为国有重要骨干企业，全面贯彻落实党 中央、国务院决策部署，统筹谋划、科学组织，加力推进大规模设备更新，有力促进企业高质量发展， 为我国经济持续健康发展作出积极贡献。 四川盆地首口万米科学探索井——中国石油深地川科1井 中国石油天然气集团有限公司｜供图 一、深刻认识推进大规模设备更新的重要意义 中国石油是国内大型的综合性能源与化工企业，在能源化工行业占据核心战略地位。实施大规模设备更 新不仅有利于推进企业产业升级和工业数字化转型，对于发挥投资关键作用、拉动我国经济增长也具有 十分重要的意义。 实施大规模设备更新是保障国家能源安全的重要前提。中国石油的国内原油和天然气产量分别约占全国 的1/2和2/3，成品油、天然气市场份额分别约占全国的33%和61%，是保障国家能源安全的"顶梁柱"。 近年来，随着国内油气勘探开发力度加大、新能源发展步伐加快和企业转型升级深入推进，产业及设备 规模不断扩大，老旧设备持续积累，能源安全保障面临严峻考验。通过大规模设备更新，能够有效提升 ...

Core Insights - Shanghai Electric Group and Shandong Energy Group held discussions on collaboration in renewable energy technology, industrial chain synergy, and large-scale equipment upgrades [1] Group 1: Collaboration Opportunities - Both companies aim to deepen cooperation in green renewable energy, next-generation coal power equipment, smart wind farm construction, and zero-carbon park development [1] - The discussions are seen as a chance to achieve complementary advantages and collaborative development [1] Group 2: Future Prospects - Shandong Energy expressed interest in leveraging opportunities during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, particularly in large-scale equipment upgrades [1] - There is a focus on enhancing technical and application cooperation in offshore wind power and green energy to improve project operational efficiency and safety [1] - The collaboration aims to assist in optimizing and upgrading the regional energy structure [1]

Economic Performance - The agricultural and rural economy in China has maintained a good development momentum in the first three quarters of 2025 [1] - Summer grain production is stable, early rice has increased production, and autumn grain planting area has expanded, with over 85% of the harvest completed [3] Poverty Alleviation - As of the end of September, over 7 million individuals at risk of returning to poverty have been identified and assisted, with targeted support measures implemented [5] Rural Development - The rural construction action has progressed steadily, with 324,000 new projects added to the project library and an investment of 162.39 billion yuan allocated [7] Employment - In the first nine months, 10.57 million new urban jobs were created, achieving 88% of the annual target, indicating overall stability in the employment situation [7] Social Security - By the end of September, the number of participants in basic pension, unemployment, and work injury insurance reached 1.074 billion, 248 million, and 304 million respectively, with social security card coverage at 98.9% of the population [9] Logistics Performance - The total social logistics volume in the first three quarters reached 263.2 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.4%, with industrial product logistics contributing significantly [10] - The logistics volume for high-end manufacturing components remains strong, with growth rates of 13% and 8.9% for machine tools and integrated circuits respectively [12] - Under policies promoting domestic demand and consumption, the logistics volume for goods increased by 6.6% year-on-year [13] - Logistics demand related to the new energy industry has surged, with production logistics for new energy vehicles and lithium-ion batteries growing by 29.7% and 46.9% respectively [14] Transportation - The cross-regional flow of people reached 50.6 billion person-times in the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of 3.1% [15] - The volume of freight transport grew steadily, with a total of 43.25 billion tons completed, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.89% [16] - Fixed asset investment in transportation reached 2.6 trillion yuan, indicating a stable and progressive economic operation in the transportation sector [18]

Core Insights - The logistics operation in China is showing a "steady progress with improved quality and efficiency" trend for the first three quarters of 2025, with stable growth in total social logistics and continuous optimization of demand structure [1][19] Group 1: Logistics Demand - The total social logistics volume reached 263.2 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.4%, slightly down by 0.3 percentage points compared to the first half of the year [2] - Industrial logistics demand remains robust, with a total volume growth of 5.6%, contributing 81% to the overall logistics growth [2] - International logistics demand is recovering, with a 1.0% year-on-year decline in import logistics, but a 3% growth in the third quarter [3] - Unit and resident logistics demand increased by 6.6%, with a notable acceleration to 8.0% in the third quarter [4] - High-end and green logistics demand is growing rapidly, with a 15% increase in recycled resource logistics [6] Group 2: Logistics Supply - The logistics industry total revenue reached 10.5 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.7% [7] - The logistics industry prosperity index averaged 50.6, indicating active logistics activities [7] - Railway logistics saw a cargo volume of 3.91 billion tons, growing by 2.8% year-on-year [8] - Air cargo transport volume increased by 14.0%, with significant growth in international routes [9] - E-commerce logistics showed a business volume index of 132.5, reflecting a continuous optimization of business structure [10] Group 3: Cost Reduction and Efficiency Improvement - Total logistics costs reached 14.2 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.3% [11] - Transportation costs were 8.1 trillion yuan, growing by 4.7%, while storage and management costs also saw increases [12] - Infrastructure investment in logistics grew by 1.1%, indicating strong investment in key logistics areas [13] - Technological innovations and upgrades in logistics are enhancing efficiency and service quality [14][15] Group 4: Price Stability and Resilience - Logistics service prices are stabilizing, with road transport prices showing a slight increase [16] - Despite external challenges, logistics companies demonstrated resilience, with a 4.5% year-on-year growth in logistics business revenue [18] - The overall logistics sector is experiencing a marginal recovery and improvement in operational conditions [18]

Core Insights - The logistics sector in China has shown a steady growth trend in the first three quarters of the year, with a total social logistics volume of 263.2 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.4% [1] - Industrial logistics remains a key driver, contributing 81% to the overall growth, with a 5.6% increase in logistics volume [1] - The demand for logistics related to high-end manufacturing components and new energy products has surged, indicating a robust recovery in import logistics [2] Group 1: Overall Logistics Performance - The logistics operation in China is characterized by "steady acceleration and dual improvement in quality and efficiency" [1] - The total social logistics volume for the first three quarters reached 263.2 trillion yuan, marking a 5.4% year-on-year growth [1] - The resilience of the logistics sector continues to strengthen amid supportive macro policies [1] Group 2: Industrial Logistics - Industrial logistics volume increased by 5.6%, maintaining its core pillar status in the overall logistics growth [1] - Notable growth in logistics volume for products such as industrial control computers, 3D printing equipment, and industrial robots, all exceeding 30% [1] Group 3: Import Logistics and New Energy - Import logistics is experiencing a recovery, with high demand for high-end manufacturing components [2] - The logistics volume for machine tools and integrated circuits grew by 13% and 8.9%, respectively [2] - Logistics demand related to the new energy industry has seen significant growth, with production logistics for new energy vehicles, lithium-ion batteries, and solar cells increasing by 29.7%, 46.9%, and 14.0% respectively [2] Group 4: Consumer Logistics - The logistics volume for units and residents increased by 6.6% year-on-year, with a notable acceleration to 8.0% in the third quarter [2] - Online new consumption logistics demand is growing rapidly, contributing positively to the overall logistics performance [2]

Economic Performance - The GDP of Sichuan province for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 49,322.2 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.5% at constant prices [2] - The industrial production continues to provide strong support to the economy, with the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size growing by 7.1% [2] Sector Performance - The primary industry added value was 3,978.7 billion yuan, growing by 3.5%; the secondary industry added value was 16,966.4 billion yuan, growing by 5.2%; and the tertiary industry added value was 28,377.1 billion yuan, growing by 6.0% [2] - In the industrial sector, 35 out of 41 major industries achieved growth, indicating a growth coverage of over 85% [2] Key Industries - The automotive manufacturing industry and computer communication and other electronic equipment manufacturing saw significant growth, with added values increasing by 18.3% and 13.1% respectively [2] - Production of lithium-ion batteries surged by 59.4%, smartwatches by 54.3%, industrial robots by 48.1%, automobiles by 38.7%, liquid crystal displays by 24.8%, and integrated circuits by 12.9% [2] Demand and Investment - Market demand expanded steadily, with investments in the primary and secondary industries growing by 13.1% and 6.9% respectively [3] - Retail sales of 14 out of 18 categories of goods in the consumer market increased, with staple food retail sales growing by 12.4% [3] Policy Impact - Sichuan's government has implemented various policies to stabilize growth, resulting in noticeable effects on demand and production recovery [3] - Equipment and tool purchase investments and industrial investments grew by 11.9% and 8.7% respectively, driven by large-scale equipment renewal policies [3]

Core Viewpoint - China's fixed asset investment decreased by 0.5% year-on-year in the first three quarters of this year, primarily due to the impact of real estate development investment, but industrial investment and infrastructure projects showed strong growth, indicating significant investment potential and solid support for future growth [1][3]. Group 1: Investment Trends - Excluding real estate development, project investment increased by 3.0% year-on-year [1]. - Manufacturing investment grew by 4% year-on-year, while high-tech service industry investment rose by 6.1%, highlighting these sectors as core drivers of stable investment [1]. - Private capital is experiencing a "structural shift," with private investment in water management and air transport growing by 42.4% and 24.4% year-on-year, respectively, indicating a flow of capital towards policy-supported and stable return sectors [2]. Group 2: Positive Indicators - The "CCTV Finance Excavator Index" reported an average operating rate of 44.0% for construction machinery in the third quarter, with the total working hours of road rollers increasing by 10.24% year-on-year and 22.80% quarter-on-quarter, reflecting steady progress in infrastructure projects and continued expansion in manufacturing investment [2]. - The investment structure is improving, with equipment and tool purchases leading the way with a 14.0% year-on-year growth, effectively promoting "hardware upgrades" in the real economy [1][2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that investment growth will continue to be supported by multiple factors, including an expected increase in funding for large-scale equipment updates and improvements in credit sources for real estate companies [3]. - The ongoing implementation of "two new" and "two heavy" policies, along with the development of green energy and new productive forces, is expected to further stimulate investment growth [3]. - Future investment growth will increasingly rely on new productive forces and addressing gaps in people's livelihoods, with significant investments anticipated in areas such as artificial intelligence chips and autonomous semiconductors [3].

Core Viewpoint - China's fixed asset investment decreased by 0.5% year-on-year in the first three quarters of this year, primarily influenced by real estate development investment, but industrial investment and infrastructure projects showed strong growth, indicating significant investment potential in the future [1][3]. Group 1: Investment Trends - Excluding real estate development, project investment increased by 3.0% year-on-year [1]. - Manufacturing investment grew by 4% year-on-year, while high-tech service industry investment rose by 6.1%, highlighting these sectors as core drivers of stable investment [1]. - Private capital is experiencing a "structural shift," with private investment in water management and air transport increasing by 42.4% and 24.4% year-on-year, respectively, indicating a flow of capital towards policy-supported and stable return sectors [2]. Group 2: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that investment growth will continue to be supported by multiple factors, including an expected increase in funding for large-scale equipment updates and improvements in credit sources for real estate companies [3]. - The ongoing implementation of "two new" and "two heavy" policies, along with the development of green energy, is expected to further stimulate investment growth [3]. - Future investment growth will rely on new productive forces and addressing gaps in people's livelihoods, with significant investments anticipated in areas like artificial intelligence chips and semiconductors [3]. Group 3: Economic Impact - Investment is expected to remain a crucial engine for economic growth, with anticipated stabilization and recovery in the fourth quarter, contributing to the optimization of supply structure and enhancing the quality of economic circulation [4].