1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views - The market for government bonds is expected to have increased volatility, and caution is advised [5][6]. - Despite short - term fluctuations, the stock index is still expected to rise, and it is advisable to consider buying index futures on dips [9][10]. - The medium - and long - term logic for precious metals remains strong, and existing long positions can be held [11][12]. - For steel products such as rebar and hot - rolled coils, investors can look for low - level buying opportunities and take profits on rebounds, with light - position participation [14][15]. - For iron ore, investors can look for low - level buying opportunities and take profits on rebounds, with light - position participation [16][17]. - For coking coal and coke, investors can look for low - level buying opportunities and take profits on rebounds, with light - position participation [19][20]. - For ferroalloys, there may be an opportunity to focus on deep out - of - the - money call options for manganese silicon in the low - level range, and short - position holders of ferrosilicon can consider exiting at the bottom [21][22]. - For crude oil, it is advisable to temporarily hold off on trading the main contract [24][25]. - For fuel oil, it is advisable to temporarily hold off on trading the main contract [26][27]. - For polyolefins, it is recommended to take a long position in the PP and L main contracts [28][29]. - For synthetic rubber, it is advisable to temporarily hold off on trading [30][31]. - For natural rubber, it is recommended to trade based on the range - bound thinking [32][33]. - For PVC, the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [35][37]. - For urea, it is expected to be strong in the short term, but attention should be paid to the risk of decline in the future [38][39]. - For PX, it is expected to oscillate and adjust following the cost side, and investors can consider participating cautiously on dips [40]. - For PTA, it is recommended to operate cautiously and seize opportunities based on supply - demand changes [41]. - For ethylene glycol, the price is expected to be under pressure in the short term, and investors should operate cautiously [42]. - For short - fiber, it is recommended to trade within a range following the cost side [43]. - For bottle chips, it is expected to adjust following the cost side, and attention should be paid to cost price changes [44]. - For soda ash, the market is still demand - driven in the short term [45]. - For glass, the actual supply - demand fundamentals have no obvious drivers, and the inventory reduction speed needs to be continuously monitored [48]. - For caustic soda, the price is expected to oscillate as a whole [49]. - For pulp, it is expected to be weak and oscillate in the short term [52]. - For lithium carbonate, the upside pressure is expected to be large, and attention should be paid to upstream mine disturbances [53]. - For copper, the price is in a stage of adjustment [54][55]. - For aluminum, the price is expected to oscillate in a wide range [56][57]. - For zinc, the price is expected to oscillate within a range [58][59]. - For lead, the price is expected to oscillate under pressure [60][61]. - For tin, attention should be paid to the impact of the earthquake in Myanmar [62]. - For nickel, the price has support below, but the upside space may be limited [63]. - For industrial silicon, the price is expected to be weak, while the polysilicon market is relatively stable [64]. - For soybean oil and soybean meal, it is advisable to wait and see, and consider long - position attempts at the bottom - support range after a decline [65][66]. - For palm oil, it is advisable to temporarily hold off on trading [67][68]. - For rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, consider the opportunity to expand the spread after the soybean - rapeseed spread narrows [69][70]. - For cotton, consider short - selling after a rebound [73][74]. - For sugar, consider buying on dips [77][78]. - For apples, consider buying on dips [79]. - For live pigs, consider the far - month opportunities after a rebound [80][81]. - For eggs, consider short - selling the far - month contracts on rallies [82][83]. - For corn, it is advisable to temporarily hold off on trading [84][85]. - For logs, beware of a rapid decline if the reality is weaker than expected [88]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Government Bonds - The previous trading day saw most government bond futures closing down, with the 30 - year contract up 0.15%, and the 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year contracts down 0.08%, 0.04%, and 0.04% respectively [5]. - The central bank conducted 649 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on April 1st, with a net withdrawal of 313 billion yuan [5]. - The March Caixin China Manufacturing PMI reached 51.2, the highest since December 2024 [5]. Stock Index - The previous trading day saw small fluctuations in stock index futures, with the CSI 300 futures up 0.08%, the SSE 50 futures down 0.11%, the CSI 500 futures up 0.66%, and the CSI 1000 futures up 0.39% [7]. - A national conference on promoting the replacement of consumer goods was held, emphasizing work promotion and policy implementation [7]. Precious Metals - The previous trading day saw the gold main contract closing at 736.3, up 0.89%, and the silver main contract closing at 8,432, down 0.87% [11]. - The eurozone's March CPI and core CPI data showed certain changes, and the unemployment rate hit a record low [11]. - The Fed has paused rate cuts, and the future rate - cut rhythm is highly uncertain [11]. Steel Products Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - The previous trading day saw rebar and hot - rolled coil futures oscillating. The spot price of Tangshan billet was 3050 yuan/ton, and Shanghai rebar was 3100 - 3210 yuan/ton, and hot - rolled coils were 3330 - 3350 yuan/ton [13]. - The weak real - estate demand and increasing rebar production suppress prices, but macro policies and the peak season may provide support [14]. Iron Ore - The previous trading day saw a significant rebound in iron ore futures. PB powder was 790 yuan/ton, and super - special powder was 650 yuan/ton [16]. - The increasing iron - water production supports demand, and the supply - side situation has changed, with port inventory decreasing [16]. Coking Coal and Coke - The previous trading day saw a strong rebound in coking coal and coke futures. Some coal - washing enterprises and traders have started to purchase, and the market sentiment has improved slightly [18]. - The demand from coking enterprises has increased, and the fundamentals of coke have shown signs of continuous improvement [19]. Ferroalloys - The previous trading day saw the manganese - silicon main contract up 0.95% to 6146 yuan/ton, and the ferrosilicon main contract up 0.37% to 5984 yuan/ton [21]. - The manganese - ore supply may be disturbed, and the demand for ferroalloys is weak, while the supply is still high [21]. Energy Crude Oil - The previous trading day saw INE crude oil opening high and closing higher, up more than 3.4% [23]. - Fund managers increased their net long positions in US crude oil futures and options, and the number of US oil and gas rigs decreased [23]. - The market may be chaotic due to factors such as US - Russia negotiations and OPEC's production increase [24]. Fuel Oil - The previous trading day saw fuel oil rising sharply following crude oil. The domestic low - sulfur 180cst fuel oil had a certain price range [26]. - High - sulfur fuel oil supply may be tight, but the global shipping market may be affected by the trade war [26]. Chemicals Polyolefins - The previous trading day saw the polyethylene market adjusting, and the polypropylene futures oscillating upward. The cost side provided some support, but the demand did not change significantly [28]. - The "Golden March" season is obvious, and the overall demand for polyolefins is expected to be slightly better, with the market expected to be oscillating strongly [28]. Synthetic Rubber - The previous trading day saw the synthetic rubber main contract up 0.29%. The开工 loss has been narrowing, and the inventory has been decreasing [30]. - The butadiene price is weakly oscillating, and the supply and demand situation has certain characteristics [30]. Natural Rubber - The previous trading day saw the natural rubber main contract down 0.48%, and the 20 - grade rubber main contract flat. The market will continue the pattern of "high supply + weak demand" in April [32]. - The supply in Yunnan may increase, and the demand is weak, but the low social inventory provides some support [32]. PVC - The previous trading day saw the PVC main contract up 0.53%. The supply - side capacity utilization has increased, and the demand - side downstream enterprises have a certain procurement pattern [35]. - The export is still dependent on low prices, and the cost has decreased, but high inventory and new capacity put pressure on prices in the long term [35]. Urea - The previous trading day saw the urea main contract up 3.27%. The short - term spring - plowing demand and policy dividends support the strong operation, but long - term risks exist [38]. - The supply is expected to be around 200,000 tons per day, and the demand from agriculture and industry has different characteristics [38]. PX - The previous trading day saw the PX2505 main contract up 1.84%. The PXN and PX - MX spreads have adjusted, and the PX load has decreased due to multiple plant overhauls [40]. - The cost side is supported by the rising crude oil price, and the short - term PX is expected to oscillate and adjust [40]. PTA - The previous trading day saw the PTA2505 main contract up 0.82%. The supply - side load has increased, and the demand - side polyester load is expected to rise further [41]. - The cost side is supported by the rising crude oil price, and the PTA price is expected to oscillate following the cost side [41]. Ethylene Glycol - The previous trading day saw the ethylene glycol main contract up 1.8%. The coal - based plant load has decreased, and the inventory has increased and is difficult to reduce [42]. - The downstream polyester demand is gradually improving, but the peak - season performance is not as expected, and the price is expected to be under pressure [42]. Short - Fiber - The previous trading day saw the short - fiber 2505 main contract up 0.97%. The supply - side load has declined slightly, and the demand - side terminal factories' raw - material inventory is stable [43]. - The cost side support is weakening, and the short - fiber price is expected to follow the cost side [43]. Bottle Chips - The previous trading day saw the bottle - chip 2505 main contract up 0.93%. The cost support is slightly insufficient, and the supply - side load is expected to increase [44]. - The downstream soft - drink consumption is gradually recovering, and the bottle - chip price is expected to adjust following the cost side [44]. Soda Ash - The previous trading day saw the main 2505 contract closing at 1388 yuan/ton, up 0.14%. Some plants have carried out overhauls, and the supply is adjusting at a high level [45]. - The inventory has been decreasing slightly, and the market is still demand - driven in the short term [45]. Glass - The previous trading day saw the main 2505 contract closing at 1235 yuan/ton, up 4.04%. The number of production lines has decreased, and the impact on the supply - demand pattern is limited [47][48]. - The actual supply - demand fundamentals have no obvious drivers, and the inventory reduction speed needs to be monitored [48]. Caustic Soda - The previous trading day saw the main 2505 contract closing at 2515 yuan/ton, down 1.30%. The production of large - scale caustic - soda enterprises has decreased [49]. - The alumina price is expected to be weak, and the caustic - soda price is expected to oscillate [49]. Pulp - The previous trading day saw the main 2505 contract closing at 5638 yuan/ton, down 1.02%. Some pulp mills have maintenance plans, and the port inventory has decreased [51][52]. - The downstream demand has a certain pattern, and the price is expected to be weak and oscillate in the short term [52]. Non - Ferrous Metals Lithium Carbonate - The previous trading day saw the lithium carbonate main contract closing up 0.49% to 74,360 yuan/ton. The supply is increasing, and the demand has improved, but the inventory is still rising [53]. - The upside pressure is large, and attention should be paid to upstream mine disturbances [53]. Copper - The previous trading day saw the Shanghai copper main contract closing at 79,820 yuan/ton, down 0.1%. The overseas economic data is mixed, and Trump's tariff policy has escalated [54]. - The copper concentrate supply is tight, and the domestic consumption is in the peak season, but the trade friction affects exports [54]. Aluminum - The previous trading day saw the Shanghai aluminum main contract closing at 20,415 yuan/ton, down 0.34%, and the alumina main contract closing at 2,942 yuan/ton, down 0.07% [56]. - The alumina supply pressure is strong, and the electrolytic aluminum consumption recovery is beneficial for inventory reduction [56]. Zinc - The previous trading day saw the Shanghai zinc main contract closing at 23,305 yuan/ton, down 0.91%. The zinc concentrate processing fee is rising, and the refined zinc production is expected to increase [58]. - The consumption is in the peak season, and the social inventory is expected to decrease [58]. Lead - The previous trading day saw the Shanghai lead main contract closing at 17,360 yuan/ton, down 0.26%. The primary lead production has declined slightly, and the secondary lead production is difficult to increase significantly [60]. - The "trade - in" policy has a slight impact on consumption, and the price is expected to oscillate under pressure [60]. Tin - The previous trading day saw tin up 0.89% to 289,000/ton. The mine - end supply is disturbed, and the domestic processing fee is low, and the inventory has increased [62]. - Attention should be paid to the impact of the earthquake in Myanmar [62]. Nickel - The previous trading day saw the nickel price up 0.49% to 129,300 yuan/ton. The cost is supported by factors such as policy and season, but the downstream acceptance of high prices is low [63]. - The stainless - steel demand is weak, and the market may remain in a supply - surplus situation [63]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - The previous trading day saw the industrial silicon main contract closing at 9,790 yuan/ton, down 0.31%, and the polysilicon main contract closing at 43,560 yuan/ton, up 0.28% [64]. - The industrial silicon market is in a supply - surplus situation, while the polysilicon market is supported by supply and demand [64]. Agricultural Products Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - The previous trading day saw the soybean - meal main contract down 0.92% to 2804/ton, and the soybean - oil main contract down 0.90% to 7896 yuan/ton [65]. - The US soybean planting area is slightly lower than expected, and the domestic soybean supply is expected to increase, while the demand has certain characteristics [65][66]. Palm Oil - The domestic palm - oil import in January - February 2025 decreased by 44.9% year - on - year, and the inventory is at a relatively low level [67]. - It is advisable to temporarily hold off on trading [68]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed has risen, and China has imposed a 100% tariff on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes since March 20, 2025 [69]. - The impact on rapeseed

- The report mentions the "TWO BETA" model, which continues to recommend the technology sector, focusing on communication equipment and military industry[3][4][9] - The industry allocation model suggests a mid-term focus on sectors experiencing a turnaround, recommending industries such as new energy[3][4][9] - The timing system signal shows that the distance between the 20-day and 120-day moving averages of the Wind All A Index has narrowed to 3.28%, indicating a market in a volatile state[2][4][11] - The report suggests that if the trading volume falls below 1.1 trillion yuan, the market is expected to rebound[2][4][11] - The current PE ratio of the Wind All A Index is around the 60th percentile, indicating a medium level, while the PB ratio is around the 20th percentile, indicating a relatively low level[3][12] - The position management model recommends maintaining a 50% position for absolute return products based on the Wind All A Index[3][12] Model and Factor Construction - **TWO BETA Model**: This model recommends the technology sector, focusing on communication equipment and military industry. The model's construction details are not provided in the report[3][4][9] - **Industry Allocation Model**: This model suggests a mid-term focus on sectors experiencing a turnaround, recommending industries such as new energy. The model's construction details are not provided in the report[3][4][9] - **Timing System**: The timing system uses the distance between the 20-day and 120-day moving averages of the Wind All A Index to determine market trends. The latest data shows the 20-day moving average at 5253 points and the 120-day moving average at 5086 points, with a distance of 3.28%[2][4][11] Model and Factor Evaluation - **TWO BETA Model**: Continues to recommend the technology sector, focusing on communication equipment and military industry[3][4][9] - **Industry Allocation Model**: Recommends a mid-term focus on sectors experiencing a turnaround, such as new energy[3][4][9] - **Timing System**: Indicates a market in a volatile state, with the distance between the 20-day and 120-day moving averages narrowing to 3.28%[2][4][11] Backtest Results - **Timing System**: The distance between the 20-day and 120-day moving averages of the Wind All A Index is 3.28%, indicating a market in a volatile state[2][4][11] - **Wind All A Index**: The current PE ratio is around the 60th percentile, and the PB ratio is around the 20th percentile[3][12] - **Position Management Model**: Recommends maintaining a 50% position for absolute return products based on the Wind All A Index[3][12]

Market Performance - The recent 5 trading days saw the Sci-Tech 50 Index decline by 1.29%, and the ChiNext Index drop by 1.12%, while the large-cap value index rose by 0.28% and the large-cap growth index increased by 0.04% [1] - The healthcare and agriculture sectors performed well, whereas the computer and defense industries lagged behind [1] Risk Premium Analysis - The static PE of the CSI All Share Index minus the yield of 10-year government bonds indicates a risk premium, which has historically reached extreme levels at two standard deviations above the mean during significant market bottoms [1] - As of January 19, 2024, the risk premium indicator was at 4.11%, marking the fifth occurrence since 2016 of exceeding 4% [1] Valuation Levels - As of March 28, 2025, the CSI All Share Index's PE TTM percentile was at 53%, with the SSE 50 and CSI 300 at 58% and 48% respectively, while the ChiNext Index was close to 14% [2] - The ChiNext Index's valuation is relatively low compared to historical averages [2] Long-term Market Trends - The Shenzhen 100 Index has experienced bear markets approximately every three years, followed by bull markets, with declines ranging from 40% to 45% [2] - The current adjustment cycle, which began in Q1 2021, appears to have sufficient time and space for a potential upward trend [2] Fund Flow and Trading Activity - In the last 5 trading days, ETF inflows totaled 16.2 billion yuan, while margin financing decreased by approximately 24.8 billion yuan [3] - The average daily trading volume across both markets was 1.2346 trillion yuan [3] Thematic Investment Focus - As of March 28, 2025, the recommended investment themes include construction materials and low-volatility dividend stocks [2][8]

广发证券首席金工分析师 安宁宁 SAC: S0260512020003 SAC: S0260522070006 zhangyudong@gf.com.cn 广发金工安宁宁陈原文团队 摘要 最近5个交易日，科创50指数跌4.16%，创业板指跌3.34%，大盘价值跌0.91%，大盘成长跌2.89%，上证50跌2.38%，国证2000代表的小盘跌 1.89%，石油石化、建筑材料市场表现靠前，计算机表现靠后。 风险溢价，中证全指静态PE的倒数EP减去十年期国债收益率，权益与债券资产隐含收益率对比，历史数次极端底部该数据均处在均值上两倍标准差区 域，比如2012/2018/2020年（疫情突发），2022/04/26达到4.17%，2022/10/28风险溢价再次上升到4.08%，市场迅速反弹，2024/01/19指标4.11%，自2016 年以来第五次超过4%。截至2025/03/21指标3.61%，两倍标准差边界为4.72%。 估值水平，截至2025/03/21，中证全指PETTM分位数54%，上证50与沪深300分别为58%、47%，创业板指接近15%，中证500与中证1000分别为35%、 42%，创业板指风格 ...

广发证券首席金工分析师 安宁宁 最近5个交易日，科创50指数涨2.67%，创业板指涨1.61%，大盘价值涨1.01%，大盘成长涨1.28%，上证50涨1.63%，国证2000代表的小盘涨4.00%，有色金 属、国防军工市场表现靠前，石油石化表现靠后。 SAC: S0260512020003 anningning@gf.com.cn 广发证券资深金工分析师 张钰东 SAC: S0260522070006 zhangyudong@gf.com.cn 广发金工安宁宁陈原文团队 摘要 风险溢价，中证全指静态PE的倒数EP减去十年期国债收益率，权益与债券资产隐含收益率对比，历史数次极端底部该数据均处在均值上两倍标准差区域，比 如2012/2018/2020年（疫情突发），2022/04/26达到4.17%，2022/10/28风险溢价再次上升到4.08%，市场迅速反弹，2024/01/19指标4.11%，自2016年以来第五 次超过4%。截至2025/03/07指标3.65%，两倍标准差边界为4.71%。 估值水平，截至2025/03/07，中证全指PETTM分位数55%，上证50与沪深300分别为59%、47%，创业 ...

广发证券资深金工分析师 张钰东 SAC: S0260522070006 zhangyudong@gf.com.cn 广发金工安宁宁陈原文团队 摘要 最近5个交易日，科创50指数跌1.46%，创业板指跌4.87%，大盘价值跌0.65%，大盘成长跌2.63%，上证50跌1.61%，国证2000代表的小盘跌3.12%，钢铁、房 地产市场表现靠前，通信、传媒表现靠后。 风险溢价，中证全指静态PE的倒数EP减去十年期国债收益率，权益与债券资产隐含收益率对比，历史数次极端底部该数据均处在均值上两倍标准差区域，比 如2012/2018/2020年（疫情突发），2022/04/26达到4.17%，2022/10/28风险溢价再次上升到4.08%，市场迅速反弹，2024/01/19指标4.11%，自2016年以来第五 次超过4%。截至2025/02/28指标3.82%，两倍标准差边界为4.70%。 广发证券首席金工分析师 安宁宁 SAC: S0260512020003 anningning@gf.com.cn 四、市场情绪之200日长期均线之上比例 五、权益资产与债券资产风险偏好跟踪 六、融资余额 估值水平，截至2025/02 ...