2025 年 4 月 17 日 公司研究 25 年开局表现亮眼，电解质饮料持续放量，全国化扩张步伐稳健 ——东鹏饮料（605499.SH）2025 年一季报点评 买入（维持） 当前价：267.58 元 作者 分析师：陈彦彤 执业证书编号：S0930518070002 021-52523689 chenyt@ebscn.com 分析师：汪航宇 执业证书编号：S0930523070002 021-52523877 wanghangyu@ebscn.com 分析师：聂博雅 执业证书编号：S0930522030003 021-52523808 nieboya@ebscn.com | 市场数据 | | | --- | --- | | 总股本(亿股) | 5.20 | | 总市值(亿元)： | 1391.44 | | 一年最低/最高(元)： | 142.14/278.49 | | 近 3 月换手率： | 30.53% | 股价相对走势 -11% 14% 40% 65% 90% 04/24 07/24 10/24 01/25 东鹏饮料 沪深300 | 收益表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with expected profit growth of 35% in 2025, 27% in 2026, and 26% in 2027, corresponding to PE ratios of 31x, 24x, and 19x respectively [3]. Core Insights - The company reported Q1 2025 revenue of 4.848 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 39.23%, and a net profit of 980 million RMB, up 47.62% year-on-year, exceeding expectations [2]. - The company is experiencing strong growth in various product lines, particularly during the Spring Festival, with significant increases in sales for special drinks and bottled water [2][3]. - The company is expanding its market presence outside Guangdong, with a notable increase in the number of distributors, particularly in the North China market [2]. Performance Analysis - The company's gross margin and net margin for Q1 2025 were 44.5% and 20.2%, respectively, reflecting improvements due to lower raw material costs [3]. - Sales and management expense ratios decreased, indicating effective scale efficiencies, while sales expenses increased due to new product promotions [3]. - The company is expected to maintain high growth in Q2 2025, supported by favorable inventory levels and strong sales momentum [3]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2023 to 2027 are 11.263 billion RMB, 15.839 billion RMB, 20.907 billion RMB, 26.164 billion RMB, and 31.829 billion RMB, with growth rates of 32.42%, 40.63%, 32.00%, 25.14%, and 21.65% respectively [7]. - Net profit projections for the same period are 2.040 billion RMB, 3.327 billion RMB, 4.474 billion RMB, 5.690 billion RMB, and 7.142 billion RMB, with growth rates of 41.60%, 63.09%, 34.50%, 27.18%, and 25.50% respectively [7]. - The report highlights a strong return on equity (ROE) forecast, with figures of 32.26% in 2023 and declining to 35.89% by 2027 [7]. Market Sentiment - The report indicates a positive market sentiment with a high number of "Buy" ratings over various time frames, suggesting strong investor confidence in the company's future performance [9].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of 262.31, compared to the last closing price of 228.95 [1][10][19] Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 15.839 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 40.63%, and a net profit of 3.327 billion, up 63.09% year-on-year [3][11] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 2.5 per share, totaling 1.3 billion [3] - The company is expected to maintain a revenue and profit growth target of no less than 20% for 2025 [10] Financial Performance - In Q4, the company reported a revenue of 3.281 billion, a year-on-year increase of 25.12%, and a net profit of 619 million, up 61.21% year-on-year [3][4] - The overall sales revenue exceeded 20 billion, marking a 47% increase year-on-year [4] - The gross profit margin increased by 1.7 percentage points to 44.8% for the year, with a net profit margin reaching a historical high of 21.0% [9][10] Product Performance - The company's flagship energy drink, Dongpeng Special Drink, achieved a market share increase of 4.9 percentage points to 47.9% [4] - The new product "Brew Water" saw an extraordinary growth rate of 280%, becoming a billion-level product within two years [4] Regional Expansion - The company experienced significant growth in various regions, with the North region showing an 83.9% increase in revenue [5] - The number of active sales points grew to nearly 4 million, a 17.6% increase year-on-year [5] Future Outlook - The company aims for revenue projections of 20.653 billion, 25.503 billion, and 30.136 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding profit targets of 4.366 billion, 5.454 billion, and 6.331 billion [11][15] - The company is also pursuing international expansion, particularly in Southeast Asia and the Middle East, with a focus on the energy drink market [10][11]