公司跟踪报告 · 食品饮料行业 | 东鹏饮料（股票代码：605499） | | --- | 推荐 维持评级 分析师 迈向平台型公司，再迎布局时点 —— 东鹏饮料动态更新报告 2026 年 02 月 24 日 核心观点 主要财务指标预测 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 15,839 | 21,108 | 27,085 | 32,964 | | 收入增长率% | 40.63 | 33.27 | 28.31 | 21.71 | | 归母净利润(百万元) | 3,327 | 4,547 | 5,914 | 7,271 | | 利润增长率% | 63.09 | 36.69 | 30.06 | 22.93 | | PE | 44.65 | 32.66 | 25.11 | 20.43 | 资料来源：公司公告，中国银河证券研究院 刘光意 ：021-20252650 ：liuguangyi_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130522070002 研究助理：彭潇颖 ： ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][57]. Core Insights - The company is transitioning from a single-product model to a platform-based beverage giant, with energy drink sustainability and new product expansion being key factors influencing performance and stock price [8]. - The energy drink segment is expected to stabilize in the short term, with long-term growth potential remaining significant due to market expansion and increasing consumer demographics [11][14]. - New product launches, particularly in milk tea and unsweetened tea, are anticipated to catalyze sales growth in the upcoming months [18][23]. - Multiple internal and external factors are expected to contribute to margin improvement, including raw material cost reductions and operational efficiencies [29]. - The company is focusing on expanding its presence in Southeast Asia, with significant revenue potential projected for the region by 2030 [37]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for 2025 to 2027 are estimated at 211 billion, 271 billion, and 330 billion CNY, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 33%, 28%, and 22% [48]. - The net profit for the same period is forecasted to be 45 billion, 59 billion, and 73 billion CNY, reflecting growth rates of 37%, 30%, and 23% [49]. - The company's price-to-earnings (PE) ratios are projected to be 33, 25, and 20 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, indicating a favorable valuation compared to industry peers [57].

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the increasing institutional interest in various sectors, particularly in electronics and automotive, with a significant number of stocks receiving "buy" ratings from analysts. Group 1: Institutional Ratings - A total of 63 institutions conducted 1,827 ratings since 2026, with 932 stocks receiving "buy" ratings, including buy, accumulate, strong recommendation, and recommendation [1][12]. - The electronics sector has the highest number of rated stocks, followed by machinery, power equipment, automotive, pharmaceuticals, basic chemicals, and computers, with each having over 50 rated stocks [2][13]. Group 2: Electronics Sector Performance - The electronics index has risen by 8.41% this year, significantly outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, with the semiconductor index showing the highest increase of 13.93% [4][14]. - Key semiconductor companies like Baiwei Storage, Zhaoyi Innovation, SMIC, and Jiangfeng Electronics have received ratings from five or more institutions, indicating strong market interest [4][14]. Group 3: Notable Stocks - 67 stocks have received attention from five or more rating agencies, with Dongpeng Beverage, BYD, Wancheng Group, Kweichow Moutai, and China Duty Free leading the list [5][15]. - Dongpeng Beverage is projected to achieve revenue of 20.76 billion to 21.12 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 31.07% to 33.34%, and a net profit of 4.34 billion to 4.59 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 30.46% to 37.97% [5][15]. - BYD's sales in January were 210,100 units, a year-on-year decrease of 30.11%, attributed to inventory reduction and a transitional policy period [5][15]. Group 4: Future Growth Prospects - Baiwei Storage is expected to achieve revenue of 10 billion to 12 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 49.36% to 79.23%, and a net profit of 850 million to 1 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 427.19% to 520.22% [10][19]. - The company is focusing on AI storage solutions and has strong competitive advantages through self-developed chips and advanced packaging capabilities [11][19].

Core Viewpoint - Dongpeng Beverage has officially listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, becoming the first domestic functional beverage company with both A and H shares, marking a new starting point for its global expansion mission led by Lin Muqin [1][12]. Group 1: Company Development - In 2003, Lin Muqin took over a struggling Dongpeng Beverage factory with an annual output value of less than 20 million yuan, initiating a challenging entrepreneurial journey [2]. - The company faced significant challenges in its early years, including funding shortages and market competition, but successfully navigated these issues by focusing on cost control and efficiency [2]. - Dongpeng Beverage has established itself as a leader in the energy drink market, with Dongpeng Special Drink ranking first in sales in China since 2021, supported by a diverse product strategy [6]. Group 2: Product Innovation - The introduction of Dongpeng Special Drink with a PET bottle and dust-proof cap addressed the needs of outdoor workers and long-distance drivers, allowing the company to penetrate lower-tier markets effectively [2]. - The company has expanded its product line with the "1+6" multi-category strategy, including successful products like "Dongpeng Water" and various tea beverages, responding to diverse consumer needs [6]. Group 3: Supply Chain and Digitalization - Dongpeng Beverage has developed a digital supply chain system that enhances operational efficiency and reduces market response time, establishing a competitive edge in the fast-moving consumer goods sector [9][10]. - The company has built 14 production bases across China, with a total designed capacity exceeding 4.8 million tons, supporting its national and international expansion [9]. Group 4: Global Expansion Strategy - In 2025, Dongpeng Beverage will officially begin its global expansion, targeting Southeast Asia and other regions, leveraging its established product system and supply chain capabilities [11]. - The company has invested $200 million in Indonesia to build a production facility, aiming to enhance its competitiveness in overseas markets through localized production and operations [11]. Group 5: Financial Performance and Future Outlook - Dongpeng Beverage is projected to achieve a revenue growth of 31.07% to 33.34% in 2025, reflecting its strong development resilience and commitment to high-quality growth [6]. - The successful listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange marks a significant milestone in the company's journey from a local leader to an international player, aligning with its vision of global expansion [12][14].

Core Viewpoint - Dongpeng Beverage officially listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, becoming the first "A+H" dual-listed functional beverage company in China, marking a new starting point for its global expansion mission [1][12]. Company Development - In 2003, Dongpeng Beverage faced a survival crisis with an annual output value of less than 20 million yuan, but Chairman Lin Muqin took responsibility and led a team to overcome challenges, establishing a culture of cost control and efficiency [3]. - The introduction of the PET bottle with a dust cover for Dongpeng Special Drink in 2009 allowed the company to capture key consumer segments and significantly reduce production costs, leading to a successful market breakthrough [3]. Product Performance - Dongpeng Special Drink has maintained the top position in China's energy drink sales since 2021, with a strong performance in the market [5]. - The company's multi-category strategy, including the successful electrolyte drink "Dongpeng Water," has shown impressive growth, with revenue reaching 2.847 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 134.78% [5]. Supply Chain and Production - Dongpeng Beverage has established 14 production bases across the country, with 10 in operation, achieving an annual design capacity of over 4.8 million tons [8]. - The company has implemented a self-developed "five-in-one" system for full-chain tracking, significantly reducing market price fluctuations and enhancing operational efficiency [10]. Global Expansion Strategy - Dongpeng Beverage is set to begin its "outbound year" in 2025, focusing on Southeast Asia and expanding to over 30 countries, leveraging local production and tailored products to meet regional preferences [11]. - A $200 million investment in Indonesia for a production facility aims to enhance competitiveness in overseas markets by avoiding tariff barriers and reducing logistics costs [11]. Financial Milestones - The successful listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on February 3, 2026, marks a significant milestone in Dongpeng Beverage's journey towards becoming an international enterprise [12][14]. - The company's projected revenue growth of 31.07% to 33.34% in 2025 reflects its strong operational resilience and strategic execution [5].

证券日报网2月6日讯，东鹏饮料（605499）在接受调研者提问时表示，果之茶于2025年度的市场表现亮 眼，这一成绩的达成，核心得益于国内有糖茶赛道已形成成熟的消费者认知与稳固的市场基础；同时依 托公司自有强势渠道网络的赋能加持，搭配多口味矩阵、多规格组合的立体化产品布局，并叠加数字化 营销工具的深度应用，不仅有效撬动了消费者的尝新意愿，更显著提升了用户复购率，最终实现了业绩 的超额突破。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The successful IPO of Dongpeng Beverage in Hong Kong highlights its strong market position and the backing of prominent investors, indicating confidence in its growth potential and international expansion strategy [1][2][3]. Group 1: IPO Details - Dongpeng Beverage's IPO raised approximately 10 billion HKD, marking the largest IPO in the Asian beverage sector since 2020 [2]. - The public offering was oversubscribed by 57.46 times, while the international placement was 15.6 times oversubscribed, attracting significant interest from global and Chinese investors [2]. - Key cornerstone investors include the Kerry Group and the盈科 Group, showcasing the endorsement from top business families in Hong Kong [3][5]. Group 2: Market Position and Performance - Dongpeng Beverage has established itself as the leading player in China's functional beverage market, holding a 26.3% market share as of 2024 [7]. - The company achieved a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 41.9% in sales among the top five functional beverage brands from 2022 to 2024 [7]. - For 2025, Dongpeng Beverage projects revenues between 20.76 billion to 21.12 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 31.07% to 33.34% [8]. Group 3: Product and Brand Strength - Dongpeng Beverage's flagship product, Dongpeng Special Drink, has become a favorite among consumers, contributing significantly to its growth [10]. - The company has expanded its product line to include various beverages, achieving a revenue increase of 280.4% for the new product "Dongpeng Water" within a year [10]. - Dongpeng Beverage has been recognized as one of the top 25 global soft drink brands by Brand Finance, underscoring its strong brand value [10]. Group 4: Strategic Expansion Plans - The company plans to allocate approximately 36% of its IPO proceeds to enhance production capacity and supply chain, with 8% earmarked for establishing supply chain infrastructure in key overseas markets [14][15]. - Dongpeng Beverage has already set up subsidiaries in Vietnam, Indonesia, and Malaysia, aiming to tap into the growing demand for energy drinks in Southeast Asia [16]. - The long-term goal is to become a global leader in the energy drink sector, with potential market opportunities in the U.S. and other regions [17].

Core Viewpoint - Dongpeng Beverage has successfully completed its IPO on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, marking a significant milestone as the first "A+H" dual-listed functional beverage company in China, with a market capitalization of approximately HKD 146 billion on its debut [5][6]. Group 1: Company Overview - Dongpeng Beverage, known for its flagship product "Dongpeng Special Drink," has evolved from being a mere imitator of Red Bull to a leading national brand with annual revenues exceeding CNY 10 billion, deeply penetrating county and town markets [5][8]. - The company has maintained its position as the top functional beverage brand in China by sales volume for four consecutive years since 2021, according to a report by Frost & Sullivan [5][16]. Group 2: IPO Details - The IPO attracted a "super luxurious" lineup of cornerstone investors, with over USD 600 million in subscriptions from more than ten top global investment institutions, setting a record for the number of cornerstone investors in the Hong Kong consumer sector [6][7]. - The funds raised from the IPO will be utilized for global market expansion, brand building, product research and development, and optimizing the distribution network [8]. Group 3: Market Strategy - Dongpeng Beverage has adopted a channel strategy that covers over 4.3 million retail outlets nationwide, achieving nearly 100% coverage of China's prefecture-level cities, allowing it to avoid direct competition with Red Bull in first-tier cities [16]. - The company has shifted its growth strategy towards diversification, with its flagship product's revenue share decreasing to approximately 74.6%, while the newly launched sports drink "Dongpeng Water" has seen a revenue surge of 134% [21][22]. Group 4: Leadership and Vision - Lin Muqin, the chairman and CEO, has been pivotal in the company's transformation and growth, leading it from a struggling state-owned enterprise to a market leader, and has been recognized as one of Forbes' best CEOs in China [17][18]. - The dual listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange represents not only a personal financial milestone for Lin Muqin but also a strategic move to enhance Dongpeng's global competitiveness and financing capabilities [18][19]. Group 5: Industry Trends - The ongoing "A+H" listing trend in Hong Kong reflects a structural shift in the market, with over 100 A-share companies planning to list in Hong Kong, indicating a growing preference for dual-platform strategies among leading firms [26][27]. - The capital market in Hong Kong is expected to continue thriving, with projections of raising at least HKD 300 billion in 2026, driven by the demand for international capital platforms amid China's industrial upgrades [28][29].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy-A/Buy-H" rating for the company, with a current price of 253.96 CNY and 251.80 HKD, and a fair value of 303.13 CNY and 340.59 HKD [6]. Core Insights - The company is set to launch its H-shares on February 3, 2026, in Hong Kong, which reflects high market recognition. The H-share issue price is set at 248 HKD, representing an 11.8% discount compared to the A-share price of 250.14 CNY [6][7]. - The company has entered a strategic partnership with Indonesia's Sanlin Group to establish a joint venture for a vitamin functional beverage company, with an investment of up to 200 million USD. This partnership is expected to accelerate the company's expansion in Southeast Asia [8][9]. - Revenue forecasts indicate significant growth, with expected revenues of 20.95 billion CNY in 2025, 26.23 billion CNY in 2026, and 31.40 billion CNY in 2027, reflecting growth rates of 32.3%, 25.2%, and 19.7% respectively [2][12]. - The company's net profit is projected to reach 4.53 billion CNY in 2025, 5.67 billion CNY in 2026, and 6.85 billion CNY in 2027, with growth rates of 36.1%, 25.2%, and 20.9% respectively [2][10]. Financial Projections - The company expects to achieve an EBITDA of 5.79 billion CNY in 2025, 7.37 billion CNY in 2026, and 8.80 billion CNY in 2027 [2]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 8.71 CNY in 2025, 10.10 CNY in 2026, and 12.22 CNY in 2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 29.2, 25.1, and 20.8 [2][12]. - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to be 46.6% in 2025, 26.6% in 2026, and 28.1% in 2027 [2][12]. Market Position and Competitive Landscape - The company is focusing on capacity upgrades, brand strengthening, national deepening, and global expansion as part of its fundraising strategy [6][7]. - The partnership with Sanlin Group, which has a strong presence in various sectors including food production and distribution, is expected to provide robust support for the company's market expansion in Southeast Asia [8][9].

业内人士分析，东鹏饮料精准把握行业发展趋势，稳居功能饮料赛道领跑地位，同时紧扣健康化、细分 化消费需求构建多元化产品矩阵，推行"1+6"多品类战略，在巩固能量饮料核心优势的同时推动东鹏补 水啦等新品类快速成长，产品结构持续优化，第二增长曲线成效显著。 "东鹏特饮"凭借深入人心的品牌价值与渠道渗透，销售额登顶中国能量饮料榜首；上市三年，"东鹏补 水啦"2025年前三季度营收达28.47亿元，同比增长134.78%，跃升为中国电解质饮料第一品牌，成为企 业增长的新引擎。同时，公司持续推出"果之茶""港氏奶茶"等新品，展现出以创新引领消费潮流的强大 生命力。 稳健增长的背后，是渠道体系的坚实支撑。目前，东鹏饮料已构建覆盖全国近100%地级市的立体化销 售网络，拥有3200余家经销商及430万家有效活跃终端网点。这一广覆盖、深渗透的渠道体系，既助力 产品动销与市场扩张，更成为企业抵御行业波动的核心竞争优势。 上市仪式中，东鹏饮料集团董事长、总裁林木勤与东鹏大咖品牌代言人韩红共同敲响上市金锣，标志着 东鹏饮料正式登陆港交所，开启"A+H"新征程。 本报讯(记者刘晓一)2月3日，东鹏饮料（605499）(集团)股份有限公 ...