以下文章来源于芒格书院 ，作者李录 芒格书院 . 由资深出版人施宏俊先生创立，定位于为终身学习者提供学习和思考的知识资源，推动认知升级和思想 分享。 " 中国还有好多比较容易的改革红利，是因为观念上的堵塞没有被疏通起来。疏通以后就可以在比较短 的时间之内加速，把经济迅速地从依赖外需和内需结合，变成主要由内需驱动。 " " 从更长期的影响来看，这次的贸易战可能加速中国经济从投资与出口驱动转向由内需驱动。 " " 世界秩序的变化已经不可逆转，它会演进到一种新的秩序上…… 中国有机会在国际秩序重塑中占据 对自己有利的位置。 " "三重动力——经济竞争收益、地缘政治压力、好奇心驱动——已使技术演进形成不可逆转的惯性。" 2024年12月7日，喜马拉雅资本创始人李录在北京大学光华管理学院"价值投资"课程十周年沙龙上， 提出了对国内、国际"时代困惑"的深刻反思。（ 点此阅读： 《 李录3万字演讲实录：理解了这些问题， 就理解了价值投资的当下可为之处……》 ） 今年4月6日，在59岁生日当天，在西雅图面对芒格书院部分会员的提问，李录进一步给出了自己的解 法。 谈保障体系、谈资本市场、谈全球秩序的演变，也谈AI带来的冲击与挑 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant impact of the recent tariff increases announced by the U.S. on global financial markets, particularly the A-share market, which experienced substantial declines. Despite the short-term volatility, there is a belief in the resilience of the A-share market in the medium to long term due to supportive policies and domestic demand [1][2][10]. Impact of Tariffs - The tariff impact is primarily seen in three areas: 1. Export chain effects, with industries heavily reliant on exports to the U.S. facing order reductions and increased costs [3]. 2. Rising inflation risks in the U.S. due to increased tariffs, which may limit the Federal Reserve's ability to cut interest rates, thereby affecting global liquidity and high-valuation growth stocks [3]. 3. Supply chain restructuring pressures as the U.S. aims to bring manufacturing back, raising concerns about industry shifts and market risk appetite [3][10]. Market Reactions - Following the tariff announcements, the A-share market saw a significant drop, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 7.34%, the Shenzhen Component down 9.66%, and the ChiNext Index down 12.5% [1]. - Central Huijin Investment expressed confidence in the Chinese capital market, indicating plans to increase holdings in ETFs to stabilize the market [1]. Short-term Market Sentiment - Fund managers noted that the recent tariff increases have heightened market uncertainty, leading to a retreat in risk appetite. They expect that the market's excessive panic will be corrected as monetary policies such as interest rate cuts and consumption subsidies are anticipated [4][5][10]. - The market is currently in a performance verification phase, with expectations that domestic policies will be accelerated to counteract external uncertainties [7][10]. Long-term Outlook - Despite the immediate challenges posed by the tariffs, the Chinese stock market is viewed as having favorable conditions compared to previous years, with a focus on domestic demand and supportive macro policies [5][11]. - The article emphasizes that the A-share market has significant potential for recovery and growth in the medium to long term, driven by strong economic resilience and favorable policy adjustments [10][11]. Investment Strategies - In the short term, investors are advised to focus on defensive sectors such as domestic consumption, agriculture, and food and beverage, which have shown relative strength amid the market turmoil [7][8]. - The article suggests that high-dividend and value stocks may provide better stability during periods of increased market volatility [8][12]. Sector-Specific Insights - The technology sector is expected to experience volatility due to the tariff impacts, particularly on hardware products. However, the importance of self-sufficiency in technology is highlighted as a key focus area for future growth [13]. - The article also notes that the current market adjustment may present opportunities for investment in sectors supported by domestic policies and technological advancements [11][13].